07/30/2020

Today, we meet the youth activists who want to transform Thai politics, learn about Turkey's plans to censor social media, and dust off an old nuclear power plant in the Philippines.

Thank you for reading.

Carlos Santamaria

Young Thais take on the generals... and the King

Carlos Santamaria

Thousands of young people have taken to Thailand's streets in recent weeks to raise their voices against an increasingly unpopular government. Angry protests are a dime a dozen in the Land of Smiles, so why is this movement different?


First, the protestors are defying strict social-distancing rules under an ongoing nationwide state of emergency to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Second, they are facing off against the powerful Thai military, which seized power following a 2014 coup and rewrote the country's constitution to win a parliamentary majority following a carefully stage-managed election in 2019. The political dominance of the generals is now deeply entrenched.

Third, this youth movement is the first in a generation that has no ties to either the ultra-royalist, military-backed "yellow shirts" or the populist "red shirt" supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra, the exiled former prime minister deposed by a previous coup in 2006.

But most importantly, these protestors are breaking a taboo that will horrify many older Thais by (indirectly) questioning the authority of the King. It's is a game-changer for Thai politics — an assault on an institution that has remained the only national symbol of continuity and stability since 1932.

For this movement, the only way to restore Thailand's democracy and bring transformative change is to oust the entire existing power structure.

These activists are staging their protests in new ways. They mobilize via social media to organize flash mobs. When security forces gather to oppose them, they flash a three-finger salute of youth resistance popularized by the Hunger Games book and movie franchise.

The protesters have three demands. First, they want to scrap the constitution that has allowed the generals to manipulate the electoral system, for instance by disbanding the progressive Future Forward Party for accepting a loan from its own founder to finance the 2019 campaign. Although the party finished third in the vote, it was then barred from entering an anti-military coalition government by a creative interpretation of electoral law and the intervention of the Senate (which is entirely appointed by the military).

Second, they want the resignation of Prayuth Chan-ocha, the 2014 coup leader who decided to stay on as prime minister. And third, the military must stop going after peaceful pro-democracy activists, one of whom recently turned up dead in Cambodia.

The movement' s message is also focused on the future of young people in Thailand, where the economy is expected to shrink by more than 8 percent this year due to the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry.

Warnings that they have nothing to lose have even emboldened the protestors to target the (until now untouchable) monarchy. At rallies, demonstrators have waved signs calling to "abolish 112," the section in the Thai criminal code that punishes with 3 to 15 years behind bars any offense to the royal family. It's a painful indictment of King Vajiralongkorn… only four years after he succeeded his father, the much more widely revered King Adulyadej.

The former monarch was loved by most Thais, in part because he sometimes intervened in times of political unrest to ease tensions. The new King's unpopularity, heightened by news that he spent the coronavirus lockdown at a luxury resort in Germany, leaves him deeply dependent on the military (which explains why he forbade his own sister, Princess Ubolratana, from running for prime minister against Prayuth in 2019).

Change is not on the horizon. Not yet, at least. The military and monarch have more than enough muscle to beat back protests. But the willingness of members of this movement to cross lines that have never been crossed before signals a generational transition that could upend Thailand's power structure in years to come.

Advancing racial equality and economic opportunity today

Bank of America

Bank of America announced a $1 billion, four-year commitment of additional support to address economic and racial inequalities in our local communities that have been intensified by a global pandemic.

Learn more.

What We're Watching: Turkey censors social media, Jordanians set to vote, China hacks the Vatican

Gabrielle Debinski

Turkey suppresses social media: Turkey's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, likes to dominate the conversation. In power since 2003, he and his Justice and Development party have succeeded in tightening their grip on the media in recent years. More than 90 percent of the country's traditional media outlets are now controlled by companies with ties to the government. Turkey has also become one of the world's leading jailers of journalists. This media-control mission now extends into cyberspace. Since nationwide protests in 2013 and a coup attempt in 2016 threatened his hold on power, Erdogan has unleashed an army of trolls to attack critics and journalists. This week, Turkey's parliament passed legislation that forces social media platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter to remove content the government doesn't like. To enforce the law, which takes effect on October 1, these companies are required to open offices, and store user data, inside Turkey. Failure to comply could lead to bandwidth cuts of up to 95 percent that slow their speed and make them unusable inside Turkey's borders.


Jordan's messy elections: After Jordan's King Abdullah II issued a royal decree calling for parliamentary elections, the polls were scheduled for November 10. Although the Jordanian parliament has legislative powers, many see it as a tokenistic body made up of business elites who play a secondary role to the country's powerful monarchy. (The King has the constitutional mandate to appoint governments and pass legislation.) Indeed, political chaos is currently the order of the day in Jordan, where the main opposition party, the Jordanian branch of the Egyptian-based Muslim Brotherhood, was recently dissolved by Jordan's top court on the basis that the group had failed to "rectify its legal status." (Egypt has dubbed the group a terrorist organization.) The Muslim Brotherhood, meanwhile, has said it will appeal the verdict. Whatever the outcome, Jordan's new parliament will be charged with the difficult task of steering the country's post-pandemic economic recovery as unemployment soars and GDP is projected to contract by at least 3.5 percent this year.

China targets... the Vatican: Amid ongoing negotiations between Beijing and the Vatican to try and resolve a host of issues, state-sponsored Chinese groups have hacked the Holy See's digital infrastructure, according to a private cybersecurity group. The hacks, which occurred over the past three months, were launched as the Vatican and Beijing prepare to meet in September to discuss the Catholic Church's operations in China, long a point of contention between the two sides. Beijing and the Vatican have been at loggerheads for years, dating as far back as the 1950s when the Holy See officially recognized Taiwan. But the relationship has grown increasingly tense recently because of freedom of religion restrictions in China — including the establishment of detention camps for Muslim Uighurs and other minorities — as well as China's security crackdown in Hong Kong, which the Vatican has condemned. Upcoming negotiations were meant to be a continuation of a 2018 agreement where the two sides notionally agreed to a joint process for selecting bishop candidates to the official church in China. We're watching to see how this revelation affects what was supposed to be the start of some sort of détente.

How politics can hurt COVID vaccine development

How could politics damage the process of developing and distributing a COVID-19 vaccine, and shake public confidence in the process? Find out from Ian Bremmer's GZERO World interview with former US Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy. Watch the clip here.

Hard Numbers: US troops to exit Germany, American renters on the brink, Philippines' nuclear revival, Mumbai slums near herd immunity

Gabrielle Debinski

12,000: The Trump administration revealed on Wednesday that it plans to remove 12,000 American troops stationed in Germany, most of whom — 6,400 — will return to the US, while the remaining troops will be redeployed throughout Europe as part of NATO. Many analysts say that the move is emblematic of deteriorating German-US relations under the Trump presidency.


40: Over 40 percent of American renters could be evicted from their homes in the near term because they can't afford to pay their rent. This assessment comes as the federal government's economic relief boost, which has been providing relief for 25 million unemployed Americans, is set to end this week.

0: The Philippines is reviving plans to become the first Southeast Asian country with nuclear energy. The country already built a nuclear plant in the 1980s, but never turned it on, and since then the plant has produced zero watts of energy. Nuclear power is seen as a possible fix for the Philippines' dual problem of spotty supply and high electricity costs.

50: At least half of Mumbai's slum population — 50 percent — is believed to have been infected by COVID-19. Close to 57 percent of the city's slum-dwellers (from a random sample size of 7,000) have now tested positive for coronavirus antibodies, suggesting that these locales, where social distancing is impossible and the sanitation environment is poor, could be moving closer towards the herd immunity threshold.

Follow us on Twitter and Instagram. If a friend sent you this email, you can subscribe here.

This edition of Signal was written by Carlos Santamaria, Gabrielle Debinski, and Willis Sparks. Spiritual counsel from Jezero, a 30-mile wide crater of a former lake on Mars where scientists hope to uncover secrets about ancient life on the Red Planet. NASA's new Mars rover, Perseverance, is scheduled to launch on July 30 and land at Jezero in February 2021.

Ken Burns discusses Muhammad Ali's background and how the journey of boxing's greatest champion is just as relevant today—in sport, culture and beyond.

"He is speaking to us with a kind of force and clarity...that to me is just so enduring." - Ken Burns

No country in the Western Hemisphere is more closely associated with disaster and misery than the Caribbean nation of Haiti. Its latest upheaval centers on news that the country's top prosecutor wants Haiti's prime minister to answer questions about the murder of the president in July. Haiti is again locked in a power struggle among competing factions within its ruling elite.

Why is Haiti still so poor and disaster-prone?

More Show less

For Michael Chertoff, former US secretary of Homeland Security from 2005 to 2009, the fact that America has not experienced a single attack by foreign terrorists since 9/11 proves that the US was "successful" in its strategy to prevent terrorism. That "was not [an] accident and there was a deterrent effect to be honest — had we been lax, more would have tried." Although he admits the US government wasn't transparent enough about the intelligence it was collecting, Chertoff credits US intelligence agencies with helping to foil the plot to blow up airplanes mid-air from Heathrow to the US in 2006. The US mission in Iraq, or what came after was not clearly thought out, according to Michael Chertoff, who served as the Secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security under George W. Bush. The Iraq war made it difficult to focus on the US mission in Afghanistan and absorbed resources that could have been used more effectively elsewhere, he said.

Watch the full episode: Is America safer since 9/11?

Listen: In a frank interview on the GZERO World podcast, António Guterres, the United Nations Secretary-General, speaks with Ian Bremmer at the UN ahead of the annual General Assembly week. Guterres discusses COVID, climate, the US-China rift, and the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan, and does not mince words when it comes to the dire state of the world. "We are standing at the edge of an abyss," Guterres warns. COVID is "defeating" the global community and a climate catastrophe is all but assured without drastic action. Amidst this unprecedented peril, there remains a startling lack of trust among nations. And yet, there is still hope.

Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.


"Men make history and not the other way around. In periods where there is no leadership, society stands still." — Harry S. Truman

The former US president's warning feels particularly prescient as world leaders prepare to gather at the 76th United National General Assembly in New York City, the first such in-person event in over 18 months. The importance of apt leadership in determining societies' ability to cope — and survive — has been on full display since COVID-19 enveloped the globe, decimating communities and killing some 4.5 million people.

More Show less

As the 76th UN General Assembly gets underway, dealing with the pandemic is still the top priority for world leaders. But for John Frank, vice president of UN Global Affairs at Microsoft, COVID is not the only major challenge the world faces today.

One of them — included in the UN Secretary-General's new Common Agenda for strong, inclusive pandemic recovery — is a different way to measure economic growth beyond the traditional productivity-led GDP model by taking more into account the cost of pollution, one of the main causes of climate change.

More Show less

For UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the pandemic has made the world even more divided than it was before COVID. That's especially true on climate, in his view, because rich and poor countries simply don't trust each other anymore. If we want COP26 to succeed, Guterres says we must rebuild that trust — or face the consequences of inaction. "If you are on the verge of an abyss, you must be careful about your next step." Watch his interview with Ian Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World.

"Pandemic" was the most used word of 2020. "Delta" looks set to inherit this year's title.

Vaccination rates are ticking up slowly. Governments aren't talking to each other enough. Parts of the world are back to normal, while others are still locked down.

Have we actually made any progress since the COVID-19 outbreak?


Unfinished Business: Is the World Really Building Back Better?

Wednesday, September 22nd, 11am ET/ 8am PT

Our speakers:

Special appearance by António Guterres, UN Secretary-General.

Visit gzeromedia.com/globalstage to watch on the day of the event.

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter, Signal

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

UNGA 76: Vaccines, climate, crises

Coronavirus

UN Chief: Still time to avert climate “abyss”

GZERO World Clips

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal