February 05, 2026
This week, India agreed to stop importing Russian oil amid US pressure. However, that may be easier said than done. In January, India imported approximately 1.2 million barrels of Russian crude oil every day. That’s the equivalent of 76 Olympic-sized swimming pools. If they follow through, India’s withdrawal could make a major dent in Russia’s already struggling economy.
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At the 2026 US Canada Summit in Toronto, hosted by Eurasia Group and RBC, Ian Bremmer breaks down the idea of a US-China “Thucydides Trap,” where rising and dominant powers collide.
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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian displays a memorandum of understanding after signing it in Tehran, Iran, on June 18, 2026, after the document was signed by US President Donald Trump.
Iranian Presidency via ZUMA Press
The interim agreement to end the war, signed by both sides on Wednesday, appears to tilt toward Iran. But the regime remains vulnerable.
A displaced woman holds an Iranian flag as she makes her way back to her home in southern Lebanon, on the highway of Sidon, Lebanon, June 16, 2026.
REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra
On June 14, the US and Iran announced a deal to end the war. A signing ceremony is set for Friday. The terms include an immediate ceasefire on all fronts. With both sides spinning the deal as a victory, there are plenty of ways for this to go wrong.
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