August 06, 2019
How likely is violence in Kashmir?
Much more likely now that the Indians have actually change administrative status. They know that.
Is the trade war with China getting worse?
Of course, it is. Oh my God. Mutual escalation.
Can the US mediate between South Korea and Japan?
They could. They don't want to.
Look. The issue with all these questions and a lot more is that all of the geopolitical risks out there: Turkey going into Syria, Russia cyber-war against the United States, Iran conflict, U.S. - China, that are usually 1-5%. Right now, they're more like 10% 20% and they're getting worse. None of them are likely to happen. But if you look at all of them we're not going to be able to avoid crises for much longer. That's why Moose is trying to jump off my lap and that worries me. It's a geopolitical recession. It's a G-zero world and it makes political science a little more relevant than any of us including myself would like it to be.
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