In this “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer tackles a growing question: How is the Trump administration performing as the year wraps up?

He says the strongest pushback is coming “on the international front,” where Trump's leverage is proving weaker than expected.

China is the clearest example. After aggressive tariffs and export controls, Beijing “called America’s raise” and now has Trump moving toward approving advanced Nvidia chip sales in exchange for easier access to critical minerals.

Brazil is also pushing back, despite sweeping US tariffs tied to former president Bolsonaro’s imprisonment.

The big wild card: a looming Supreme Court ruling that could limit Trump’s authority on tariffs.

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Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro, speaks during an interview with Reuters in Brasilia, Brazil, on December 19, 2025.
REUTERS/Adriano Machado

Three years ago today, supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Congress and other buildings in Brasília. With Bolsonaro in jail, though, and the election coming in October, his successor as leader of Brazil’s right is unclear.