It's a very bad situation for China's economy, says Cliff Kupchan

Is China’s economic model reaching a breaking point?

In GZERO’s 2026 Top Risks livestream, Cliff Kupchan, Chairman of Global Macro at Eurasia Group, highlights mounting pressures on the Chinese economy.

“It’s over competition,” Kupchan explains, referring to the term frequently used in China, which reflects declining wages, rising debt, and increasing enterprise failures.

Chinese youth unemployment is officially 17%, with many more struggling to find work. “The youth are really getting whacked… Many Chinese youths are just checking out. The social contract is breaking,” Kupchan warns.

Beyond domestic consequences, China’s overcapacity is reshaping global markets: “When you trade with China, you get your nascent industries beat down. De-industrialization, not prosperity, is what the world is getting.” Kupchan emphasizes that while the economy is not at a breaking point, these trends pose significant global risks.

To read more on Top Risks for 2026, head to gzeromedia.com/toprisks