Trump’s midterm strategy and beyond

In this "ask ian," Ian Bremmer breaks down President Trump’s approach to the 2026 midterm elections and what his political strategy may look like afterward.

Ian says Trump is operating in a highly polarized environment where election rules, redistricting, and court rulings are shaping the political landscape ahead of the vote. He notes there is “a lot of effort by the Trump administration to try to put its thumb on the scale in changing the rule set.”

Still, Ian argues the underlying trajectory is difficult to change, noting that Trump understands “the Republicans are going to lose, there’s nothing he can really do about it.” He suggests Trump is already managing expectations and preparing to shift blame toward campaign performance and broader party dynamics.

Looking ahead, Ian expects a more constrained presidency after the midterms, with greater legislative gridlock, increased intra-party hedging, and a sharper focus on defending rather than expanding Trump’s agenda.