US-Canada trade war heats up

In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer examines the collapse of US-Canada trade talks and what it reveals about President Trump’s growing political vulnerability.

Once considered one of the world’s most stable and friendly relationships, US-Canada ties are now under increasing strain as Trump threatens new tariffs and Canada pushes back.

Negotiations broke down after the Trump administration introduced new demands that Canadian officials viewed as an infringement on their sovereignty. While the higher tariffs will create real economic costs for Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney appears increasingly willing to challenge Trump, betting that the US president’s political leverage is weakening.

Ian points to Trump’s declining approval ratings, economic pressures and the approaching midterms as reasons for greater caution. “Trump is getting frustrated, he's throwing punches, but he's not seen as credible,” Ian says.

As other countries look beyond Trump’s current term, Ian argues that Canada’s stance could foreshadow a broader shift in how allies respond to US pressure.