Why Europe’s support for Ukraine could become harder to sustain

Europe enters 2026 under mounting strain as it confronts external threats, internal political pressures, and a weakening relationship with the United States.

In GZERO’s 2026 Top Risks livestream, Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director for Europe at Eurasia Group, describes a continent that is “exhausted, fatigued, weak, and vulnerable,” besieged by Russia’s war in Ukraine, competition from China, and the rise of far-right populism in Europe’s largest economies.

While Europe’s operational priority remains supporting Ukraine, Rahman warns that sustaining that effort comes at a rising cost. “Credible support for Ukraine depends on a constructive relationship with America,” he says, pointing to Europe’s reliance on US weapons, intelligence, and NATO deterrence.

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