Many countries have pledged weapons and military equipment – and big bucks – to help Ukraine better arm itself against the Russian army. Just this week, the US announced an additional $550 million in military aid to Kyiv in the near term, including more ammunition for the much-coveted High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). Making commitments is one thing, but delivering on those pledges is another. Indeed, some countries – like France and Italy – have been criticized for not providing more military aid to Ukraine, yet both those states have delivered on 100% of their commitments. While it is by far the largest single contributor to Ukraine's war chest, the US has yet to follow through on over half of its military aid commitments. We look at 10 countries that have pledged the most military aid to Ukraine and at how much they have delivered.
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. This website uses cookies. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence (if different), and our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy.
Ukraine
What We’re Watching: Argentina’s super minister, China-Zambia debt deal, Ukrainian grain trader dead
Sergio Massa attends an event after the 2021 midterm elections in Buenos Aires.
Can a "super minister" save Argentina?
Argentina's embattled President Alberto Fernández has appointed Sergio Massa, the influential leader of the lower house of parliament, to head a new "super ministry" that Fernández hopes will help steer the country out of a deep economic crisis. Massa, Argentina's third economic minister in less than a month, will oversee economic, manufacturing, and agricultural policy. He has his work cut out for him owing to soaring inflation, farmers demanding tax relief, and a recent run on the peso. Massa also needs to convince the IMF that Argentina will comply with the terms of its $44 billion debt restructuring deal. There's a political angle too: he's (arguably) the strongest candidate the left-wing Peronista coalition has to run for president next year if the unpopular Fernández drops his bid for a second term. Massa is one of very few politicians who can navigate the ongoing rift between the president and his powerful VP, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. If the new "super minister" does a good job, he'll be in pole position for a 2023 presidential run; if he fails, the ruling Peronistas will face long odds to stay in power.
China gives Zambia debt relief, paving way for others
Zambia's creditors, led by China, will give the cash-strapped African country enough debt relief to unlock a $1.3 billion IMF loan it desperately needs to get back into the black. It's the first time that Beijing has coordinated with other governments to restructure the debt of a low-income country instead of collecting on its own. This is good news not only for Zambia but also for other nations that owe a lot to China such as Sri Lanka, which has already defaulted, and Pakistan, which could be next. Zambia, the first country to default after COVID struck, is often cited as a glaring example of China's so-called debt trap diplomacy. But President Hichilema Hakainde, elected in late 2021, has successfully leveraged the country's vast copper reserves to reassure both the IMF and China (the latter wary of the bad optics of squeezing African countries. The deal also puts pressure on private creditors to give more breathing room to heavily indebted nations grappling with high inflation and a strong US dollar. But there's a catch: private investors will have to agree to at least as much debt relief as public creditors.
The latest from Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine escalated on multiple fronts over the weekend, particularly with heavy shelling in the southern city of Mykolaiv that killed businessman Oleksiy Vadatursky. The death of Vadatursky, head of one of Ukraine’s top grain exporting companies, comes just as grain shipments are set to finally resume on Monday from its Black Sea ports. Meanwhile, Ukraine claimed it killed dozens of Russian soldiers near Kherson, crucial for the Kremlin’s supply lines lines in the Donbas region. But Kyiv had to play defense as well, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered the mandatory evacuation of civilians in the eastern Donetsk province, indicating that fighting is likely to get even more intense there. Finally, Russia was forced to cancel Navy Day in Crimea after its Black Sea Fleet was attacked by a drone from inside the Russian-occupied peninsula hours after President Vladimir Putin announced a new security doctrine with global maritime ambitious and declaring America as Russia’s greatest enemy.Volodymyr Zelensky just wanted to thank Boris Johnson for all his help, but it turns out you really can't take the (lame duck) British PM anywhere these days.
Watch more PUPPET REGIME!
Subscribe to GZERO Media's YouTube channel to get notifications when new videos are published.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni walk during their meeting in Entebbe.
Russia’s brutal military offensive may be taking place in Europe, but the battle to shore up support for its cause is now playing out in … Africa.
Russia’s top diplomat, Sergey Lavrov, is currently on a tour to reassure African allies of Moscow’s commitment to alleviating the global food crisis.
But Lavrov is not to be outdone by French President Emmanuel Macron, who is also on a three-nation tour in Central and West Africa. Washington, meanwhile, has sent an envoy to Ethiopia and Egypt.
Russia, the EU, and US have long tried to court developing countries in bids to expand their respective spheres of influence. But as war rages on in Europe, why the intense focus on Africa now?
Who’s going where?
Lavrov started his African tour in Egypt, where he sought to assure a jittery President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi that Russia is taking the global grain shortage seriously. (Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer.) Russia’s top diplomat doubled down on the Kremlin’s talking point that a Western-backed Ukraine is responsible for the blockade in the Black Sea that’s pummeling import-reliant Cairo. (The Egyptians, who have strong security ties with the US but rely on Russia for grain, have so far refused to pick a side in the war.)
This week's itinerary for Lavrov also had stops in Uganda, the Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia. The latter could be a tougher sell because Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is seeking a rapprochement with the US after Washington imposed sanctions on Ethiopian officials over the brutal war in Tigray.
The French president is visiting Cameroon, Guinea-Bissau, and Benin to reiterate France’s postcolonial commitment to African prosperity and security. Food supply issues will be on the agenda, too.
Meanwhile, the US special envoy to the Horn of Africa is holding a series of talks in Ethiopia and Egypt to discuss the ongoing Grand Ethiopian Dam dispute that has pitted Addis Ababa against Khartoum and Cairo. Washington says it will also discuss ways to mitigate the global food crisis.
Why Africa?
Moscow has been boosting its investment in African countries for years to gain a strategic foothold on a continent where it once yielded great influence during the Cold War. As part of this effort, it’s been sending mercenaries to support counterinsurgencies in West Africa and Libya, and flooding some African states with weapons.
What does Russia get out of it? Metals, diamonds, gold, and other commodities. Indeed, Russia has been leveraging relations with weak and corrupt African governments to secure lucrative mining deals. (Moscow uses some of the metals it extracts to make weapons that it then sells … back to Africa.) What’s more, Russia’s trade with African states has doubled since 2015 to around $20 billion a year, and it has signed arms deals with more than 20 African states.
Crucially, while the European Union remains Africa’s largest trade partner, many African countries have long resented the bloc’s strings-attached approach to cooperation. (The EU, for instance, has previously conditioned aid and investment on Africa cracking down on migration to the bloc.)
The war in Ukraine is also being waged on the diplomatic front. Though its enforcement powers are limited, the United Nations is a powerful arbiter of international norms, and the 55-member African Union is the largest voting bloc in the UN. Indeed, it was a boon for the Kremlin that 17 African states refrained from taking a side when Russia’s aggression in Ukraine came up for a vote at the UN in March.
The view from Africa. For many African states, relations with Russia offer an appealing alternative to China, the EU, and the US, which have historically had the resources to make inroads throughout the continent.
Beijing, for its part, has promised Africa prosperity and innovation … but in the process saddled dozens of African countries with debt. And though many states – particularly in sub-Saharan Africa – rely on Western aid, they also have come to resent Europe’s imperialist legacy and Washington’s preachiness on human rights.
Russia, on the other hand, has managed to foster a lot of goodwill among numerous African states by not lecturing them about human rights or burdening them with shady loans. Indeed, some African states believe Russia is cultivating a partnership of equals.
Still, Eurasia Group Africa expert Tochi Eni-Kalu says that although the Russians have had some success with their recent diplomatic outreach, there are limits to how far this will take them.
“Russia has few dependable allies in Africa,” he says, adding that “most African states would detest the idea of being seen as being too close to Russia, even if their nonaligned orientation might see them vote in line with Russia (or abstain) on certain resolutions.” Plainly, they don’t see themselves as having to make a binary choice between Russia and the West.
To be sure, Putin knows Russia is no match for Beijing’s financial prowess or Washington’s military might.
“Though Russia is a key arms exporter to numerous African states, the Kremlin lacks the resources that the US, EU, or China can draw on in negotiating political concessions on the global stage,” Eni-Kalu says, noting that this is especially true for Africa's biggest economies.
So what’s Russia trying to do then? As we’ve written before, Moscow is seeking “discrete pressure points where, with minimal expenditure, it can win friends and influence people in ways that directly benefit the Russian state or affiliated cronies.”
After years of deprioritizing the continent, the US is (sort of) interested again. The Biden administration recently announced that it will host more than 50 African leaders at a US-Africa summit this December. The event, according to the White House, will focus on deepening economic engagement and tackling the global food crisis. Washington has also doled out cash to help the continent weather the food crisis.
Still, “Western engagement with Africa has been more rhetoric than action for several years now,” Eni-Kalu says, noting that there is little indication that the current geopolitical situation will result in any new concrete commitments from the West.
What We're Watching: EU's energy conundrum, Plan B for Ukraine grain exports, war games in Taiwan, robot revenge
European Commission holds a news conference in Brussels.
EU’s deepening gas woes
Europe’s gas crisis went from bad to worse on Monday after Russia announced that it would slash deliveries to Germany via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to 20% capacity beginning this week. The Kremlin’s dramatic move is further testing the European Union’s cohesiveness just days after Brussels called on members to voluntarily cut natural gas consumption by 15% until at least April 2023. The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, wants its 27 member states to cut back in order to boost stockpiles ahead of winter as Russia continues to use its natural gas exports as a political weapon. But the sense of European unity that defined the early stage of the war – when the bloc rallied together to enforce crushing sanctions on Moscow – is now waning. Countries like Spain and Portugal that rely less on Russian natural gas than the Germans and Italians, say the plan doesn’t account for EU countries’ disparate needs (a diplomatic way of asking why the heck they should suffer because Berlin has failed to diversify its energy portfolio). Though Brussels prefers for the plan to remain voluntary, it has threatened to make reductions in gas consumption mandatory across the bloc. The plan could go to a vote as soon as Tuesday and requires 15 of 27 states to back it. For now, the bickering continues.
Is there a Plan B for Ukraine grain exports?
It took less than 24 hours for Russia to attack the Ukrainian port of Odesa after signing an agreement to allow grain shipments to resume from … Odesa, and while Moscow says the missile strikes didn’t violate the terms of the deal, Ukraine is already working with the US on other ways to get the grain out. The focus is on Ukraine’s road, river, and rail links with the rest of Europe, says USAID boss Samantha Power. But those logistics will take time to develop, and there isn’t much of that left: the 20 million tons of grain currently in Odesa’s silos will soon start to rot. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking in Egypt, one of the countries most dependent on Ukrainian and Russian grain, said Monday that the missile attacks were on non-grain port facilities and that the deal is still on. That’s some Whole Grain Chutzpah by our lights, but the fact remains: the world has little choice but to deal with Russia to free up the most efficient seaborne grain export routes from Ukraine.
Taiwan simulates war
Sirens blasted across northern Taiwan on Monday as the country kicked off an annual military drill in preparation for a potential Chinese attack. (Beijing rejects the sovereign status of the democratically governed island and has threatened to seize it through military force.) The event features mass street evacuations as part of a “missile alert,” a scenario simulating evacuation protocols in the event of a rocket attack by Beijing. But this year’s drill comes as the security situation in the Taiwan Strait feels more precarious. Just last week, US Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned that Beijing has become significantly more bellicose and dangerous in recent years. What’s more, China responded firmly to reports that US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is planning a trip to Taiwan next month, which would make her the highest-ranking US official to visit the contested territory in some 25 years. China, meanwhile, is grappling with a shrinking economy as a result of its zero-COVID policy and is likely not keen to pursue a full-blown conflict in the Strait right now. Still, it could use a potential visit by a high-ranking US official as an excuse to flex its military muscles.
What We’re Fearing: The robots’ revenge
Look, we’re not saying that the chess robot that broke a seven-year-old kid’s finger during a tournament in Moscow last week did it on purpose as an early signal that the robots are nearing the moment when they rebel against their masters in an epic uprising that leads to the enslavement of humans at the hands of AI-powered cyborgs. Catch breath. But we are also not NOT saying that. After all, the pandemic wasn’t the worst thing for our future overl – uh, robots, that is.
A demonstrator holds up a mock mouse head during a protest against inflation in Panama City.
Protests paralyze Panama
In yet another example of how inflation caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine is stoking social upheaval around the globe, the Central American country has been paralyzed for weeks by protests over the high cost of food and gasoline. The demonstrations began in late June, fueled by footage of lawmakers partying with $340 bottles of whisky, and they have continued despite the government’s move to lower gasoline prices over the weekend. Now, with highways partly shut by protesters, food, and fuel shortages are worsening, and the government is rationing electricity to parts of the country because fuel trucks can’t get through. For decades, Panama has been relatively stable, owing to revenue from the Panama Canal and the fact that its currency is pegged to the US dollar. But as the Panamanian salsero Rubén Blades once noted, life is full of surprises: the pandemic crushed GDP by nearly 20% in 2020, and the recovery has been slow, with the jobless rate remaining above 12%. Meanwhile, inequality ranks among the highest in the region, and activists say corruption is rampant, even though the country returned to democracy in 1990 after Uncle Sam’s heavy metal ouster of dictator Manuel Noriega.
So, is Pelosi going to Taiwan or not?
Two days after the Financial Times reported that Nancy Pelosi plans to visit Taiwan next month – the first US House speaker to do so in 25 years – President Joe Biden said the Pentagon thinks it’s a bad idea. The still-unconfirmed trip has ruffled feathers in China, which regards the self-governing island as part of its territory — right as Biden and Xi Jinping are scheduling their next Zoom call, their first since March. We don’t know for sure, but perhaps Biden was kept in the loop and is coming out against the planned trip to throw Xi a bone ahead of the meeting. Either way, this all comes on the heels of growing love for Taiwan from US lawmakers on both sides of the aisle and follows Biden's own gaffes, ahem, strong-worded statements about the US defending Taiwan from a future Chinese invasion. Beijing, for its part, is likely as confused as we are by the mixed signals about an issue that, importantly, triggers China like no other.
Russia & Ukraine break bread
Lots of good food news lately. Turkey has announced that Ukraine and Russia will ink a UN-brokered deal on Friday to resume grain exports by sea from Ukraine's Black Sea ports (they agreed in principle last week, but this time it's for real). Until Russia invaded Ukraine, the two sunflower superpowers were among the world's top exporters of grain and cooking oils, and Russia was a major fertilizer supplier. Still, it'll take a while for the huge backlog of shipments — presuming this all goes smoothly — to reach destinations in Africa and elsewhere. The two sides could also nix the agreement at any moment if things get dicey on the battlefield. That said, the deal is definitely a step in the right direction, and more cheap fertilizer alone could help ease food inflation worldwide, not to mention 2023 harvests. For complete coverage of the global food crisis, check out our Hunger Pains project.What We're Watching: Draghi's departure, Russian annexation plans, two-way race for British PM
Draghi throws in the towel
Italy's embattled Prime Minister Mario Draghi finally stepped down on Thursday for a second time in a week, hours after winning a vote of confidence in the upper house of parliament on Wednesday evening. This time, President Sergio Mattarella didn't reject his resignation but asked him to continue as caretaker PM, presumably until a fresh election is held.
The vote of confidence was partly hijacked by mass abstentions from three of the top parties in his coalition: the populist 5-Star Movement, the far-right Lega, and the center-right Forza Italia. The no-shows broke Draghi’s hopes of keeping together a strong majority, and in the end he kept his promise to stay on as PM only if he held the coalition together. That was impossible since both Lega and Forza Italia wanted to ditch 5-Star, which they blame for the government’s collapse after rejecting Draghi's energy crisis relief plan.
The PM's departure puts an end to 18 months of a fragile unity coalition government, and ushers in a period of deep uncertainty for Italy and Europe at a critical time. Inflation and energy costs are both surging, and Draghi didn't have time to pass the reforms necessary to unlock EU pandemic relief funds. Also, the next government might be led by the Euroskeptic far-right party Brothers of Italy, out of the coalition and whose leader Georgia Meloni celebrated the exit of "Super Mario".
Russia wants more of Ukraine
The US has feared for months that Russia aimed to annex Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. But having already seized much of the Donbas, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday that Moscow also intends to gobble up the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces in southern Ukraine, along with a “number of other territories.” American officials now believe Russia plans to illegally swipe sovereign parts of Ukrainian territory by introducing the ruble and forcing residents to get Russian passports — a new twist on Vladimir Putin’s 2014 playbook in Crimea, where the Kremlin held a bogus referendum on "joining Russia” prior to annexation. Since peace talks with Kyiv collapsed this spring, Putin likely thinks the odds of a negotiated settlement are slim, so he might as well take as much of Ukraine as he can before the Ukrainians get enough Western weapons to mount a counteroffensive. That would allow Putin to link Crimea by land to the Russian mainland and could boost his popularity at home. But there's a big downside: he’ll need to spend lots of troops and rubles on pacifying hostile populations and propping up battered economies.
UK race narrows to two: Sunak vs. Truss
Conservative MPs voted on Wednesday to advance Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss to the final round of balloting for leadership of their party. Starting Friday, about 160,000 party members nationwide will begin voting by mail to decide which of these two will serve as the UK’s next prime minister, at least until the next national election. The result of the vote won’t be known until Sept. 5. Sunak is best known for serving as chancellor during the pandemic and directing heavy spending to boost the UK’s flagging economy. Though fined for involvement in outgoing PM Boris Johnson’s lockdown scandals, Sunak was among the first to signal his lack of confidence in Johnson by resigning. Truss has served as both post-Brexit international trade secretary and foreign minister. So far, the candidates have competed for votes among their fellow MPs. Now they must win the hearts and minds of their party’s rank-and-file. A YouGov poll of party members this week showed support favoring Truss, 54% to 35%. But it’s all to play for as weeks of hustings kick off across the UK after Monday’s televised debate between the finalists. The new prime minister will then have to persuade the rest of the country that Tories aren’t just listening to other Tories.Latest
The Graphic Truth: Who's arming Ukraine?
Zelensky and Boris Johnson hit the beach
Russia and the West battle it out in Africa
GZEROMEDIA
Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal
Most Popular Videos
