Today is going to be the day, friends. At times of great trial and tribulation, we know that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson recites the poetry that is closest to his heart. The Iliad, for example. But as the United Kingdom leaves the European Union today, here are the verses that came to the Prime Minister's mind...
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Iran was involved in two naval incidents in the Gulf of Oman in recent days. The US, UK, and Israel have blamed Iran for a drone attack that killed two European nationals. Iran has rejected the accusations. Iran is also suspected in the "potential hijack" of a tanker off the coast of the United Arab Emirates.
These provocations are happening just as Iran inaugurates a new president, Ebrahim Raisi, and as talks continue over the possible US re-entry into the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. What's the connection between these events? We asked Henry Rome, Eurasia Group's deputy head of research and a director covering global macro politics and the Middle East.
WS: Iran was involved in two naval incidents in the Gulf of Oman in recent days that have provoked anger and concern in Israel, the UK and US. This is happening at a time when negotiations over the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal is reaching a critical point. Are these two facts related? If so, how?
HR: The attack on the Israeli-linked ship appeared to be the latest salvo in the decades-long shadow war between Israel and Iran, which will proceed whether there's a nuclear deal or not. The second incident is murkier, but it appears that Iranian forces tried and failed to hijack the ship. This could've been aimed at somehow building leverage in the talks, or as a reminder to Iran's neighbors of its capabilities, or something else altogether. We just don't know at this stage.
WS: We know there are differences of opinion inside Iran's leadership over the nuclear deal. Are those opposed to the deal trying to provoke a response from the US, Israel, or UK that will kill the agreement?
HR: I don't buy the idea that there's a rogue faction within the Iranian state creating hostilities to undermine diplomacy. On matters of strategic importance, like the nuclear deal, the state acts as a unitary actor. And, as of now, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains publicly supportive of the agreement, with conditions. Now, is it possible these incidents create circumstances that end up making a revival of the deal impossible? Yes, absolutely.
WS: How might that happen?
HR: If a ship linked to the US is attacked, or if an American crew member on a ship is killed, the political space for the negotiations in Washington will evaporate, at least in the near term. It will be very challenging for the Biden administration to proceed with sanctions relief in the immediate aftermath of such an incident.
WS: Does Iran's new president change the dynamic here? Beyond his public statements, where do his interests really lie?
HR: On the nuclear issue, Raisi seeks refuge in the statements of [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei, and he and his team have refrained from going beyond vague comments. So, there's a lot we don't know at this point. But Raisi probably does have a real political interest in sanctions relief to give the economy some breathing room early in his term. Of course, the only way to get sanctions relief is to negotiate over the nuclear program.
WS: In one sentence, will there be a return to the nuclear deal? Why or why not?
HR: Yes, I think so; the path to a deal was never going to be easy or immediate, but the logic is compelling for both sides to get to yes eventually.
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This week, the market value of Tencent, China's biggest video game company, nosedived after a state media outlet suggested that online gaming was as addictive and destructive as opium. Tencent immediately pledged to cap the number of hours people can play, and to keep minors off its platforms.
It's the latest example of a months-long crackdown on major Chinese technology firms that until recently were viewed as some of the world's most powerful and successful companies, as well as a source of national pride. Beijing's about-face on its own tech titans could have big implications for China, and beyond.
Who's being targeted? First they came for billionaire Jack Ma, who was fined a whopping $2.8 billion for alleged antitrust violations and stopped from launching Ant Group, part of his Alibaba empire, as the world's biggest IPO. The value of its stock has plummeted since.
Then Beijing imposed sweeping restrictions on cryptocurrency trading, perceived as being too volatile... right as China (wink-wink) is pushing its own digital yuan as a reliable alternative.
After that, it was the turn of ride-hailing app Didi, which — on the eve of its American IPO — had its offices raided by state security agents for collecting more data on passengers than Beijing was comfortable leaving in the hands of a private firm. Next, for-profit tutoring giants were taken offline for skewing college admission odds towards the kids of rich families who can afford the help.
Now, it's the gamers' turn.
Why all the fuss? Beijing has all these companies in its crosshairs because they do at least one of three things Xi Jinping doesn't seem to like: they've become too big too fast, have gathered too much data, or are making too much money at the expense of social stability.
At a time of rising inequality in China, being rich is no longer, in Deng Xiaoping's own words, "glorious."
Here are two ways to understand what's going on.
One prevailing narrative — especially in the West — is that Xi is bullying large, rich companies because he is simply an authoritarian party boss who wants to stop any tech mogul or company from becoming too influential for the ruling Communist Party. Some argue that Xi would rather put the likes of Alibaba, Didi, or Tencent in their place — and perhaps out of business altogether — than let them become rival power centers. That's especially true if US stock market listings open up sources of financing and influence for these companies from Beijing's number one rival.
But another reading is that he is using his terrible powers for an understandable purpose. After decades of breakneck growth and corporate enrichment, China is reining in companies in the interest of social harmony over infinite growth. From this perspective, Xi is astutely flexing the one-party state's (considerable) muscle to nip social ills like inequality, monopoly, or gaming-induced apathy in the bud before they become horrific political problems like in the West.
In fact, at a time when many countries want to regulate tech firms but can't do so expediently as democracies, Beijing is — as far as this argument goes — ahead of the curve. In other words, by cracking down on tech behemoths Xi's acting less like Joseph Stalin than like trust-buster Teddy Roosevelt.
Xi has found an unexpected ally in Chinese youth, who are otherwise tired of their parents and the government ganging up on them over playing video games. There's a #MeToo angle — Tencent is one of several tech firms linked to Kris Wu, a famous singer accused of sexually assaulting multiple women. In cancelling him, young Chinese and the CCP have found common ground: the youth hate Wu for being a sexual predator, while the party generally despises the celebrity obsession culture tech companies rake in billions from.
What do you think? Is Xi using his power for good or bad reasons? Let us know here.
Additional reporting by Ziyu Wu.
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Whenever Burkina Faso is in the news, it's often about how the crisis-ridden country has got caught up in the crosshairs of horrific jihadist violence plaguing the Sahel.
But this week, the nation of 20 million was celebrating because Hugues Fabrice Zango won its first-ever Olympic medal after finishing third in the men's triple jump in Tokyo.
What's more, Zango did it on the 61st anniversary of Burkina Faso's independence from France.
"It's not the medal I wanted, but it's good for Burkina Faso and it's historic. Burkina Faso is really happy. Everybody is happy," Zango said after the event. The president later congratulated him on Twitter: "Bravo champion."
Zango, who's currently pursuing a doctorate in electrical engineering, says he'll try to win gold in Paris 2024.
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What we're watching: COVID boosters, Israel-Lebanon border flareup, Mexico vs gringo guns
August 05, 2021
Should people get COVID vaccine booster shots? Not yet, says the World Health Organization, which is pushing for rich nations or those with access to jabs to hold off until at least the end of September so all countries get to fully vaccinate at least 10 percent of their populations before some jump ahead with boosters. But the WHO's call has fallen on deaf ears in nations like Israel, France, Germany and Russia, which are already planning to offer boosters, in part to better protect people against the more contagious delta variant. What's more, mRNA vaccine makers Pfizer and Moderna are recommending supplemental doses for the same reason. The problem is that, beyond the obvious moral imperative for equal access to vaccines, if the rich continue hoarding jabs while vaccination rates stay low elsewhere, the virus will continue to thrive — and mutate into new, potentially even more infectious variants that sooner or later will reach every corner of the planet.
Flareup on Israel-Lebanon border: On Wednesday, Israel launched airstrikes against militants in several Lebanese villages in response to a flurry of rockets fired this week from Lebanon into northern Israel. Hezbollah, Lebanon's powerful Iran-backed militia and political party, denied responsibility, and analysts said it was likely the work of smaller Lebanese-based Palestinian outfits. Still, the exchange of fire is one of the biggest cross-border escalations in several years (Hezbollah and Israeli forces last fought an all-out war in 2006). Lebanese President Michel Aoun, for his part, said Israel's response had violated Lebanese sovereignty, while Israeli PM Naftali Bennett shot back that Israel would hold the Lebanese state responsible for any rockets launched from its territory, no matter who is firing them. The escalation came as Lebanon marked the one-year anniversary of the Beirut port explosions. Thousands of Lebanese flocked to the streets to demand justice for the victims of the blast and to vent their outrage over the country's deepening financial and economic crises.
Mexico takes on the gringo gunmakers: The Mexican government this week filed a lawsuit against US gun manufacturers, arguing that their commercial practices have contributed to Mexico's sky-high murder rate by making it easy for illegal weapons to flow south of the border. According to the suit, some 70 percent of weapons illegally trafficked into Mexico come from the US, and those firearms were involved in about half of the country's roughly 35,000 yearly murders. Mexico says US gunmakers' marketing campaigns designed to appeal to Mexican buyers are part of the problem, but the American gun lobby says the lawsuit is preposterous and that it's up to Mexico to keep guns from crossing its borders or falling into the wrong hands once they do. US gunmakers enjoy broad immunity from lawsuits like this within the US, but this is believed to be the first international suit of its kind. Mexico is seeking $10 billion in damages.
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Hard Numbers: Endangered penguins, Chinese bots strike again, Athens choking, Nigeria targets Biafran separatists
August 05, 2021
80: If polar ice caps continue to melt at their current pace due to climate change, 80 percent of all emperor penguins will be wiped out by the end of the century because they need the ice for breeding and keeping their offspring safe. American authorities want to list emperor penguins, which only live in Antarctica, as an endangered species so that US fishing vessels will be required to protect them when operating in their habitat.
350: A network of over 350 fake accounts is amplifying pro-China propaganda on Western social media, according to a new study. Although there's no concrete evidence that the Chinese government is behind it, the matrix resembles previous ones taken down by Facebook and Twitter, and its bots have posted cartoons mocking enemies of Beijing like exiled tycoon Guo Wengui and whistleblower virologist Li-Meng Yan.
465: Clouded in smoke as multiple fires rage across Greece, Athens is reporting 465 micrograms of fine dust per cubic meter (35 cubic feet) in the city center, almost 10 times the level deemed safe by the EU. Thousands of residents have been evacuated due to the blazes, the worst seen in decades, amid a blistering heatwave that has also hit neighboring countries Turkey, North Macedonia, Albania, and Italy.
115: Amnesty International says Nigerian security forces have killed at least 115 people in the year leading up to June 2021 in their campaign against Biafran separatists in the country's southeast. Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the pro-independence Indigenous People of Biafra movement, was extradited last month from Kenya to face trial for treason, which carries the death penalty.
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Jon Lieber, Managing Director of the United States for Eurasia Group, shares updates on recent COVID-19 policy developments:
The Biden administration extended an eviction moratorium even after the Supreme Court said they couldn't, what's next?
Well, the CDC imposed a nationwide eviction moratorium in light of increased risk from evicted people because of the coronavirus pandemic. The Supreme Court in June ruled that they (CDC) overextended their authority in doing so and mandated that the moratorium expire on schedule in July. A group of progressive activists weren't happy about this and raised a huge stink in Congress, but Congress recessed for their August vacation before they could solve the problem, putting big pressure on President Biden to extend the moratorium even though he said he didn't think that it would pass constitutional muster. The CDC did it anyway, extending the moratorium until October 3rd, which is a time that's short enough to probably avoid it being overturned by lawsuits, but long enough that Congress has time to figure out how to either extend it on a bipartisan basis or put more money into a rental assistance fund that few people have taken advantage of so far. This whole incident shows the power of progressive activists in the Biden administration who were able to elevate the profile of this issue and potentially prevent millions of people from losing their homes this summer.
The CDC recommended indoor masking even for vaccinated people, but few jurisdictions are following suit. What gives?
Officials at the CDC are very worried about the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus, which they say is more infectious and spreads more easily, including from vaccinated people to the rest of the population. CDC guidance now says that areas where there's significant or high levels of transmission should wear masks while they're indoors. But very few jurisdictions are following suit, with only a handful of states that have mask mandates not creating exemptions for vaccinated people. After a year of mixed messages and reversals from the CDC, it looks like some of their authority to deal with and be listened to in the pandemic has gone away, which could be a very big problem for future public health crises. Even the Biden administration went out of their way to counter the message, the implicit message from the CDC that vaccinations were not effective at stopping the coronavirus, by emphasizing the 164 million Americans who are fully vaccinated and the incredibly rare number of breakthrough infections there are in that group. The Biden administration also urged Americans to get vaccinated and they really want to hit this message that once you're vaccinated, you're protected and in theory, you no longer need masks. Vaccines are going to be the only way out of this pandemic for President Joe Biden, these mask mandates aren't effective anymore, partially because people aren't following them. And the CDC is going to have a very tough time going forward.
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On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer takes a look at the yin and the yang of alcohol's role in high-level diplomacy and society at large. Alcohol can bring people together just as easily as it can tear them apart. From a 1995 Clinton/Yeltsin Summit where a drunk Yeltsin almost derailed Bosnian peace talks, to Obama's Beer Summit and the recent G7 Summit, booze plays a part in how world leaders interact. Globally, alcohol consumption has been steadily increasing, by over 70 percent between 1990 and 2017, according to one report. . Low and middle-income nations like Vietnam, India, and China are a driving force behind that trend, with drinking in Southeast Asia rising by over 34 percent between 2010 and 2017. And yet, amidst this global booze boom, the world has only grown more and more divided.
Watch the episode: The (political) power of alcohol
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