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What We’re Watching: Trump orders shutdown of Venezuela airspace, Honduras election on a knife edge, Migrant skepticism spreads
Two military jets fly in formation during the industrial air show.
Is the US attack on Venezuela imminent?
US President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the airspace above Venezuela should be seen as “closed in its entirety.” Caracas slammed the move and said it contravenes international law, while its citizens prepare for strikes. Trump’s announcement comes two days after he said the US would commence land strikes on the South American nation of over 26 million people – the White House has also been bombing boats in the Caribbean and building up its military presence there for months now. Amid signs that an invasion is imminent, there is also discontent emerging in Washington about the potential action, after a Washington Post report found that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth ordered the US military to kill two people on a drug-carrying boat – even after the boat had been destroyed. Trump will convene a meeting on Venezuela this evening.
Honduras’ election couldn’t be closer
Hondurans went to the polls yesterday to choose between two conservative candidates, former Tegucigalpa Mayor Nasry Asfura and former sports broadcaster Salvador Nasralla. Early results show that the two are neck in neck, with just 4,000 votes separating them. Their campaigns focused on jobs and crime, as Honduras has the highest homicide rate in Central America and unemployment hovers at 5.2%. US President Donald Trump has also weighed in, endorsing Asfura and saying he was the only candidate the White House would work with. Trump also pardoned the former president of Asfura’s party on Friday. As the vote rolls in with no clear winner yet, the candidates are showing signs that they may not accept the results, trading accusations of election fixing.
Skepticism of migrants and refugees spreads to developing nations
Amid burgeoning tensions with the Taliban, Pakistan has been rapidly expelling Afghans from its territory, removing one million of the three million Afghans from its borders this year alone. Many have never lived in Afghanistan. Pakistan isn’t the only developing country growing skeptical of migrants and refugees from war-torn nations: Uganda, once a safe haven for Africans fleeing war – as well as Afghans – has announced new restrictions on which refugees it will accept. Egypt, Kenya, and Somalia, are also moving to limit refugee arrivals. Where will those who are fleeing Afghanistan, the Sudan civil war, and other internal conflicts go?
What We’re Watching: Another glitch in Russia-Ukraine talks, UK Labour Party to raise taxes to record levels, Tensions spike in Syria’s third-largest city
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomes US envoy Steve Witkoff during a meeting in Moscow, Russia, on April 25, 2025.
Witkoff leak is only the latest glitch in Russia-Ukraine negotiations
A leaked recording of an October call between US special envoy Steve Witkoff and a senior Kremlin official is the latest drama to spill into the Ukraine peace talks. In the call, scooped by Bloomberg, Witkoff – already mistrusted by the Ukrainians – gives tips on how Russian President Vladimir Putin can soften up US President Donald Trump in negotiations. This follows the mini-drama in which US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was forced to affirm this week that the White House had “authored” an initial 28-point plan, after he reportedly told US senators that it hadn’t. Meanwhile Russia is still warning that it won’t accept a deal that strays from its red lines, while accusing Europe of “meddling” in the talks. With so much drama and division, we are keenly tuned in to see what plan, if any, emerges in the coming days.
Will the UK’s new budget right the ship?
The UK government will impose record tax hikes in order to balance the state’s finances while supporting more social spending, according to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ new budget. The tax burden will reach 38% of GDP by 2030, the highest in UK history, with the help of a de-facto income tax rise and a new tax on homes worth above £2 million. Labour supporters will cheer the increased social spending but the higher overall tax burden, even on less affluent families, could sting at the polls. Markets swung forward and back in response to the announcement, suggesting they weren’t fully convinced by Labour’s efforts to balance its books. We’re watching to see how this bold fiscal move will affect Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his flailing government.
Syria’s sectarian tensions flare again after brutal double killing
The gruesome murder of a Sunni bedouin couple in the Syrian city of Homs has stoked sectarian tensions in one of the country’s largest cities. The husband and wife were found dead in their home, with sectarian epithets scrawled at the scene. The killings set off a brief wave of reprisals against local Alawites, the sect to which the now-ousted Assad dynasty belonged. Since overthrowing the Assad regime a year ago, President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who has remade himself as a statesman, has struggled to contain sectarian violence, some of it stoked by his own men. The situation in Homs, a strategically located city that is home to Sunnis, Shia, Christians, and Alawites, is an important test case.
What We’re Watching: Russia and Ukraine negotiations continue, Trump and Xi make a springtime date, Sudan’s rebels declare unilateral ceasefire
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll attend a meeting, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, November 20, 2025.
Ukraine and Russia still worlds apart as peace talks continue
Moscow said that it would reject any ceasefire deal that doesn’t meet its core demands for more territory, the large-scale disarmament of Ukraine, and a ban on Ukrainian NATO membership. The Kremlin’s cold water comes after Ukraine was all smiles following a fresh round of ceasefire talks with the US yesterday. While the White House seems keen to strike a deal soonest, the two sides are still worlds apart on what they are willing to agree to – Washington has now abandoned its Thanksgiving “deadline” for a deal. Today, Russian and American negotiators will be meeting in the UAE to see if they can narrow the gaps between the two peace plans, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for a meeting with US President Donald Trump later this week.
Was Taiwan the subject of US-China call?
After talking on the phone Monday, Trump said he will be meeting with Xi Jinping IRL in Beijing in April and that Xi will come to the US for a state visit later in the year. While the White House said that the call had been “very positive” and mainly focused on trade, Chinese state media reported that the call had focused on Taiwan, saying Xi had communicated to Trump that returning Taiwan to return to Chinese control was “integral.” For more on the impact of the US-China rivalry, see our recent piece on how the trade war has hit the US heartland.
Sudan paramilitaries agree to one-sided ceasefire
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries on Monday announced a three month “humanitarian ceasefire” in their brutal, two-and-a-half-year long civil war with the Sudanese military. The plan was brokered by the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. Good news, maybe, but there’s a huge catch: the RSF announced the move after the army rejected it because of the involvement of the UAE, which has faced persistent accusations that it backs the RSF. The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people and driven 14 million from their homes. Both sides are accused of widespread war crimes.
What We’re Watching: Russia-Ukraine peace deal, Rough weekend for Brazil, Mass school abductions in Nigeria
Servicemen of the 148th Separate Artillery Zhytomyr Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire a Caesar self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops at a position on the front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the frontline town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, Ukraine November 23, 2025.
Is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal imminent?
After facing backlash that the US’s first 28-point peace deal was too friendly towards Russia, American and Ukrainian negotiators drafted a new 19-point plan on Monday. The talks nearly fell apart before they began, but both sides reported ultimately that the meeting felt “positive.” However, whether this gets Ukraine and Russia any closer to a ceasefire remains to be seen. The new draft apparently bears little resemblance to the original plan – meaning Moscow may not agree. It also does not address the most controversial issues like territorial questions and the future of NATO–Russia–US relations, leaving them for Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky to resolve before Washington’s Thursday deadline.
A rough weekend for Brazil’s Bolsonaro
On Friday, US President Donald Trump gave Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a boost – and thereby hurt former President Jair Bolsonaro – by cutting tariffs on several Brazilian foodstuffs, including beef, coffee, and fruit (see more here). But things would get worse for Bolsonaro: Police arrested him on Saturday over fears that he would try to escape house arrest to avoid the 27-year sentence he’s serving for plotting a failed coup. The Supreme Court believed the right-wing leader was tampering with his ankle monitor, so granted the arrest. Trump had placed 50% tariffs on Brazil over its treatment of Bolsonaro, but his priority appears to be shifting.
Another spate of mass school abductions rock Nigeria
Several Nigerian states have shut their schools following a spate of mass abductions over the weekend, adding yet another dilemma to the mounting security crisis in Africa’s most-populous country. The most notable abduction took place on Friday in Niger State, where gunmen kidnapped 315 children and 12 teachers – 50 of the children have since escaped. President Bola Tinubu announced afterwards that he would recruit another 30,000 police officers. With the Islamist militant group iSWAP sowing violence in the north, violence burgeoning between farmers and herders in the central Benue state, and these latest abductions, Tinubu’s to-do list is getting long and difficult.
What We’re Watching: Kyiv gets a nugget US peace plan, Election day in Guinea-Bissau, Two men from Queens meet at the White House
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 20, 2025.
A nugget for Kyiv in the US plan for ending the war
The United States’ 28-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine appears to contain many items from Russia’s wish list, but it has emerged that it also has something for Kyiv: a security guarantee akin to NATO’s Article 5, which says that an attack on one member state is an attack on all. The US and its European allies would be part of this guarantee. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who faces domestic pressure over a corruption scandal, said on Thursday he’s willing to engage with the plan – although he did draft a statement with European leaders that disavowed parts of the proposal. The Kremlin said it hasn’t formally received the plan.
This West African incumbent may struggle to win reelection
Guinea-Bissau, a West African country of two million people that plays a central role in global cocaine trade, is holding the first round of its presidential election this Sunday. One-term incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo faces fierce competition from opposition leader Fernando Dias, who has centered his campaign on security and keeping soldiers out of politics – a rather tough challenge in a country that has had several military coups. The issue hasn’t gone away, either: there was reportedly a coup attempt this year. Most incumbents have won reelection on the continent this year, often amid reports of vote-rigging. Will it be different in Guinea-Bissau?
Two men from Queens walk into the Oval Office
New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is heading to the White House today to meet with Donald Trump, setting the tone for the relationship between the leader of the US’s biggest city and the US president – and there’s plenty that could go wrong. While they both hail from Queens, they represent movements on vastly different sides of the political spectrum. If things go south, Trump holds a more powerful hand: he has threatened to cut off funding for the city, flood its streets with ICE agents, and send in the national guard. While Mamdani may hesitate to provoke the president, he’ll lose his base if he’s seen as cowing to the president.
What We’re Watching: US and Russia’s peace framework, West Africa on edge, Iran asks Saudi Arabia to put in a good word with Trump
A psychologist comforts a resident in front of an apartment building that was hit yesterday by a Russian missile, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Ternopil, Ukraine, November 20, 2025.
Details emerge of US-Russia plan for Ukraine
The proposal would give Russia more territory, cap the size of Ukraine’s military, and grant both the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church official status within Ukraine. While it envisions some US security guarantees for Kyiv, it also prohibits foreign troops and long range weapons on Ukrainian soil. In its current form, some consider it a Kremlin Christmas list, though officials say it’s just an initial “framework.” The Ukrainians see the plan as a non-starter, but the corruption scandal currently engulfing President Volodymyr Zelensky may complicate his ability to push back. Who’s funding Ukraine’s war effort now? See our recent Graphic Truth here.
Military governments continue to struggle with militants in West Africa
Islamist militants with ties to al-Qaeda killed at least 10 government soldiers in western Niger on Wednesday. The attack from the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM) group, which controls a portion of West Africa that spans Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, will likely fuel further fears of these insurgents seizing power in this trio of military-controlled West African countries – the militants already have Mali’s capital surrounded (read more here).
Iran’s leader asks Saudi Arabia to help bring Washington back to the table
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian sent a letter to Saudi Arabia’s leader on the eve of his visit to the White House asking him to pass on a message to Donald Trump: please resume US-Iran nuclear talks. Since the US and Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program during the 12-day war in June, diplomacy has stalled. Iran is getting desperate to return to talks in order to lift the sanctions that are crippling its economy and worsening chronic water and energy shortages. The note marks that Iran’s leadership may be scrambling for a breakthrough with Washington — now we’ll see if Trump bites.
At least 25 people, including three children, were killed in a Russian drone and missile assault on Ternopil, in western Ukraine, overnight on Wednesday, according to Ukrainian rescue services.
Is the US drafting secret peace plans with the Russians?
The US has apparently been secretly drafting plans with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, per Axios, raising questions of whether Ukraine would accept a deal made without its input. It comes as Russia’s two biggest oil companies – Lukoil and Rusneft – are about to have US sanctions enforced against them on November 21, upping the Kremlin’s incentives to make a deal Meanwhile, Russia is inching forward on the battlefield and just carried out a deadly attack in Western Ukraine, while Zelensky is in Turkey trying to revive peace talks on his own terms.
Markets on edge as world’s most valuable firm set to announce earnings
The AI chip design firm Nvidia, valued at roughly $4.6 trillion, will reveal its third-quarter earnings when markets close at 4 pm ET time, amid growing concerns that there is an AI bubble. Fears over potential overvaluation of AI firms are contributing to a selloff this month, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index dropping 5%. The share price of Nvidia itself has dropped 4% this week. Analysts have set the bar high for Nvidia’s earnings, with some market participants anticipating profit growth above 50% – less could spur a drop in stock value.