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What We’re Watching: Russia-Ukraine peace deal, Rough weekend for Brazil, Mass school abductions in Nigeria
Servicemen of the 148th Separate Artillery Zhytomyr Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire a Caesar self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops at a position on the front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the frontline town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, Ukraine November 23, 2025.
Is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal imminent?
After facing backlash that the US’s first 28-point peace deal was too friendly towards Russia, American and Ukrainian negotiators drafted a new 19-point plan on Monday. The talks nearly fell apart before they began, but both sides reported ultimately that the meeting felt “positive.” However, whether this gets Ukraine and Russia any closer to a ceasefire remains to be seen. The new draft apparently bears little resemblance to the original plan – meaning Moscow may not agree. It also does not address the most controversial issues like territorial questions and the future of NATO–Russia–US relations, leaving them for Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky to resolve before Washington’s Thursday deadline.
A rough weekend for Brazil’s Bolsonaro
On Friday, US President Donald Trump gave Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a boost – and thereby hurt former President Jair Bolsonaro – by cutting tariffs on several Brazilian foodstuffs, including beef, coffee, and fruit (see more here). But things would get worse for Bolsonaro: Police arrested him on Saturday over fears that he would try to escape house arrest to avoid the 27-year sentence he’s serving for plotting a failed coup. The Supreme Court believed the right-wing leader was tampering with his ankle monitor, so granted the arrest. Trump had placed 50% tariffs on Brazil over its treatment of Bolsonaro, but his priority appears to be shifting.
Another spate of mass school abductions rock Nigeria
Several Nigerian states have shut their schools following a spate of mass abductions over the weekend, adding yet another dilemma to the mounting security crisis in Africa’s most-populous country. The most notable abduction took place on Friday in Niger State, where gunmen kidnapped 315 children and 12 teachers – 50 of the children have since escaped. President Bola Tinubu announced afterwards that he would recruit another 30,000 police officers. With the Islamist militant group iSWAP sowing violence in the north, violence burgeoning between farmers and herders in the central Benue state, and these latest abductions, Tinubu’s to-do list is getting long and difficult.
What We’re Watching: Kyiv gets a nugget US peace plan, Election day in Guinea-Bissau, Two men from Queens meet at the White House
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 20, 2025.
A nugget for Kyiv in the US plan for ending the war
The United States’ 28-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine appears to contain many items from Russia’s wish list, but it has emerged that it also has something for Kyiv: a security guarantee akin to NATO’s Article 5, which says that an attack on one member state is an attack on all. The US and its European allies would be part of this guarantee. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who faces domestic pressure over a corruption scandal, said on Thursday he’s willing to engage with the plan – although he did draft a statement with European leaders that disavowed parts of the proposal. The Kremlin said it hasn’t formally received the plan.
This West African incumbent may struggle to win reelection
Guinea-Bissau, a West African country of two million people that plays a central role in global cocaine trade, is holding the first round of its presidential election this Sunday. One-term incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo faces fierce competition from opposition leader Fernando Dias, who has centered his campaign on security and keeping soldiers out of politics – a rather tough challenge in a country that has had several military coups. The issue hasn’t gone away, either: there was reportedly a coup attempt this year. Most incumbents have won reelection on the continent this year, often amid reports of vote-rigging. Will it be different in Guinea-Bissau?
Two men from Queens walk into the Oval Office
New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is heading to the White House today to meet with Donald Trump, setting the tone for the relationship between the leader of the US’s biggest city and the US president – and there’s plenty that could go wrong. While they both hail from Queens, they represent movements on vastly different sides of the political spectrum. If things go south, Trump holds a more powerful hand: he has threatened to cut off funding for the city, flood its streets with ICE agents, and send in the national guard. While Mamdani may hesitate to provoke the president, he’ll lose his base if he’s seen as cowing to the president.
What We’re Watching: US and Russia’s peace framework, West Africa on edge, Iran asks Saudi Arabia to put in a good word with Trump
A psychologist comforts a resident in front of an apartment building that was hit yesterday by a Russian missile, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Ternopil, Ukraine, November 20, 2025.
Details emerge of US-Russia plan for Ukraine
The proposal would give Russia more territory, cap the size of Ukraine’s military, and grant both the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church official status within Ukraine. While it envisions some US security guarantees for Kyiv, it also prohibits foreign troops and long range weapons on Ukrainian soil. In its current form, some consider it a Kremlin Christmas list, though officials say it’s just an initial “framework.” The Ukrainians see the plan as a non-starter, but the corruption scandal currently engulfing President Volodymyr Zelensky may complicate his ability to push back. Who’s funding Ukraine’s war effort now? See our recent Graphic Truth here.
Military governments continue to struggle with militants in West Africa
Islamist militants with ties to al-Qaeda killed at least 10 government soldiers in western Niger on Wednesday. The attack from the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM) group, which controls a portion of West Africa that spans Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, will likely fuel further fears of these insurgents seizing power in this trio of military-controlled West African countries – the militants already have Mali’s capital surrounded (read more here).
Iran’s leader asks Saudi Arabia to help bring Washington back to the table
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian sent a letter to Saudi Arabia’s leader on the eve of his visit to the White House asking him to pass on a message to Donald Trump: please resume US-Iran nuclear talks. Since the US and Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program during the 12-day war in June, diplomacy has stalled. Iran is getting desperate to return to talks in order to lift the sanctions that are crippling its economy and worsening chronic water and energy shortages. The note marks that Iran’s leadership may be scrambling for a breakthrough with Washington — now we’ll see if Trump bites.
At least 25 people, including three children, were killed in a Russian drone and missile assault on Ternopil, in western Ukraine, overnight on Wednesday, according to Ukrainian rescue services.
Is the US drafting secret peace plans with the Russians?
The US has apparently been secretly drafting plans with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, per Axios, raising questions of whether Ukraine would accept a deal made without its input. It comes as Russia’s two biggest oil companies – Lukoil and Rusneft – are about to have US sanctions enforced against them on November 21, upping the Kremlin’s incentives to make a deal Meanwhile, Russia is inching forward on the battlefield and just carried out a deadly attack in Western Ukraine, while Zelensky is in Turkey trying to revive peace talks on his own terms.
Markets on edge as world’s most valuable firm set to announce earnings
The AI chip design firm Nvidia, valued at roughly $4.6 trillion, will reveal its third-quarter earnings when markets close at 4 pm ET time, amid growing concerns that there is an AI bubble. Fears over potential overvaluation of AI firms are contributing to a selloff this month, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index dropping 5%. The share price of Nvidia itself has dropped 4% this week. Analysts have set the bar high for Nvidia’s earnings, with some market participants anticipating profit growth above 50% – less could spur a drop in stock value.
Syria prosecutes suspects in sectarian clashes
Fourteen men were put on trial at an Aleppo court yesterday on charges they stoked sectarian clashes that left more than 1,000 people dead earlier this year. Half the defendants are members of the government security services and half are Alawites, the sect to which ousted dictator Bashar al-Assad belonged. Hundreds more from both sides await trial. Since ousting Assad last year, President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who has reinvented himself as a globetrotting statesman, has struggled to contain sectarian violence, including bloodshed driven by his own men. Critics have questioned the independence of the courts, but the trials are seen as a big test of accountability, something unimaginable under the Assads.What We’re Watching: UN backs US plan for Gaza, Trump to sell fighter jets to Saudi, Zelensky seeks funds with money well running dry
UN Security Council members vote on a draft resolution to Authorize an International Stabilization Force in Gaza authored by the US at UN Headquarters in New York, NY on November 17, 2025.
UN Security council approves Trump plan for Gaza
The resolution lends international legitimacy to a multi-national peacekeeping force and US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. Not everyone loves it. Russia and China abstained, saying the resolution gives too much leeway to the US to shape Gaza’s future. Israel, meanwhile, objected to language gesturing towards a possible future Palestinian state. Hamas rejected the resolution outright and said it refuses to disarm. That’s still the hard reality on the ground: how many countries, UN resolution or not, will be willing to send their troops into a firefight with Hamas?
Trump says he’ll sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia as crown prince arrives
Ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to the White House today, Trump announced Monday that he would sell F-35 fighter planes to the Gulf state. If fully approved, Saudi Arabia would be only the second country in the Middle East – after Israel – to successfully purchase these jets. Several other deals are set to be announced, too, including on civilian nuclear infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and even hotels, bringing the two oil-producing states closer together. Do these deals remove the incentives for Saudi to join the Abraham Accords? Not necessarily – they still would love access to Israeli tech – but it does mean they’re in less of a rush.
Ukraine is on the hunt for more funds and peace talks
Ukraine desperately needs more funds, and Europe is at an impasse on how to refill its coffers. Belgium blocked a loan plan that would use the $160 billion of Russia’s central bank assets to fund Ukraine, fearing it could be on the hook if Russia demanded its money back or retaliated against Euroclear, the Belgian central securities depository where the funds are held. While the EU is looking for ways to allay Brussels’s worries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is turning to Spain and Turkey for funds and peace deals: Madrid announced a $1.16-billion aid package after meeting with Zelensky, who is now heading to Turkey, where he will try to “reinvigorate” peace talks with Russia.What We’re Watching: Anti-graft protests resurface in the Philippines, Polish railway hit, Trump flips on Epstein files vote
Members of the religious group Iglesia ni Cristo (Church of Christ) wave their hands during the first of a three-day anti-corruption protest at the Quirino Grandstand, Manila, Philippines, November 16, 2025.
Anti-graft protests restart in the Philippines, with help of a church
More than 200,000 people took to the streets of Manila, the Philippine capital, on Monday to protest against suspected corruption in flood-control projects. A day prior, a protestant megachurch organized a rally in the Catholic-majority country of 114 million people. These aren’t the first anti-graft demonstrations in the Southeast Asian nation this fall: there were violent protests in September after a government audit showed that the government had spent billions of dollars over the last few years on substandard or non-existent projects. A pair of typhoons also ripped through the country in recent weeks, possibly adding more fuel to the fire. Protest leaders have planned another rally later this month.
Polish railway attacked
In Poland, an explosion damaged a train line that connects Warsaw to Ukraine. The line has been used to transport aid and weapons to Ukraine, and while the investigation is ongoing, Poland’s government has said that it was a “highly probable” act of sabotage by Russia. Russia has targeted Poland for being an aid hub for Ukraine – seemingly carrying out cyber attacks, arson, and other acts of sabotage since the start of the war. If Poland uncovers the attack was carried out by Moscow, it will mark an escalation of the conflict.
Trump does U-turn on Epstein files
After piling pressure on lawmakers to halt the release of the US Justice Department files on the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, President Donald Trump reversed course and said Congress should release the files. Trump said he had “nothing to hide.” It was a remarkable about-face, and showed that congressional Republicans can still press the president – it has often been the other way around since the former real estate mogul came to Washington. GOP lawmakers will hope the vote reassures voters – including the MAGA base – ahead of next year’s midterms that they are serious about investigating the Epstein case. There are still doubts over whether the bill will come to pass: The House will bring it up this week, but it remains an open question whether the Senate votes on it.What We’re Watching: Epstein files on the US House floor, Ukraine hits Russia where it hurts, RSF consolidated its grip on Darfur
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) after signing the funding bill to end the U.S. government shutdown, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 12, 2025.
The US House set to vote to release Epstein files
The House of Representatives will vote next week to compel the Justice Department to release the Epstein files, after a trove of documents this week further linked President Donald Trump with the late sex offender. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have opposed the bill, but are braced for scores of their party to vote for the release – potentially over 100, according to Politico. Their defections signal that representatives fear being seen as implicated in a cover up could come back to bite them ahead of 2026 Midterm elections. Polling shows that 67% of Republicans agree that the administration should release all the documents. However, even if the bill does pass, it is unlikely to make it out of the GOP-controlled Senate, or get the White House signature it needs to become law.
For Ukraine, is offense the best form of defense?
Ukraine is on the verge of losing another town in the eastern part of the country, and at a great cost, raising questions over whether it should spend so much defending these areas. What’s more, Russia hit several residential towers in Kyiv last night. But Ukraine did have a response, using drones and cruise missiles to strike Russia’s Novorossiysk port, which sits on the Black Sea, and halt exports of 2% of the whole world’s oil supply. Fittingly, crude prices rose 2% as a result. With Ukraine struggling to hold onto towns out east, is a better option to halt Russia a continuation of strikes deep inside enemy territory?
World’s worst war is about to get even worse
Sudan’s horrific civil war is set for a fresh escalation as the paramilitary forces battling the army look to open a new front. The Rapid Support Forces, having consolidated power in the West and the South – where they are accused of recent mass killings and acts of genocide – are now eyeing an eastward push to the Kordofan region. Sudan’s civil war, now in its third year, has already displaced at least 13 million people, forcing some four million into neighboring countries. Estimates of the death toll run to 400,000. The US yesterday called for an arms embargo against the RSF, but the effect is unclear: a recent Washington-brokered ceasefire disintegrated within days.