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What We're Watching
At least 25 people, including three children, were killed in a Russian drone and missile assault on Ternopil, in western Ukraine, overnight on Wednesday, according to Ukrainian rescue services.
Is the US drafting secret peace plans with the Russians?
The US has apparently been secretly drafting plans with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, per Axios, raising questions of whether Ukraine would accept a deal made without its input. It comes as Russia’s two biggest oil companies – Lukoil and Rusneft – are about to have US sanctions enforced against them on November 21, upping the Kremlin’s incentives to make a deal Meanwhile, Russia is inching forward on the battlefield and just carried out a deadly attack in Western Ukraine, while Zelensky is in Turkey trying to revive peace talks on his own terms.
Markets on edge as world’s most valuable firm set to announce earnings
The AI chip design firm Nvidia, valued at roughly $4.6 trillion, will reveal its third-quarter earnings when markets close at 4 pm ET time, amid growing concerns that there is an AI bubble. Fears over potential overvaluation of AI firms are contributing to a selloff this month, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index dropping 5%. The share price of Nvidia itself has dropped 4% this week. Analysts have set the bar high for Nvidia’s earnings, with some market participants anticipating profit growth above 50% – less could spur a drop in stock value.
Syria prosecutes suspects in sectarian clashes
Fourteen men were put on trial at an Aleppo court yesterday on charges they stoked sectarian clashes that left more than 1,000 people dead earlier this year. Half the defendants are members of the government security services and half are Alawites, the sect to which ousted dictator Bashar al-Assad belonged. Hundreds more from both sides await trial. Since ousting Assad last year, President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who has reinvented himself as a globetrotting statesman, has struggled to contain sectarian violence, including bloodshed driven by his own men. Critics have questioned the independence of the courts, but the trials are seen as a big test of accountability, something unimaginable under the Assads.What We’re Watching: UN backs US plan for Gaza, Trump to sell fighter jets to Saudi, Zelensky seeks funds with money well running dry
UN Security Council members vote on a draft resolution to Authorize an International Stabilization Force in Gaza authored by the US at UN Headquarters in New York, NY on November 17, 2025.
UN Security council approves Trump plan for Gaza
The resolution lends international legitimacy to a multi-national peacekeeping force and US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. Not everyone loves it. Russia and China abstained, saying the resolution gives too much leeway to the US to shape Gaza’s future. Israel, meanwhile, objected to language gesturing towards a possible future Palestinian state. Hamas rejected the resolution outright and said it refuses to disarm. That’s still the hard reality on the ground: how many countries, UN resolution or not, will be willing to send their troops into a firefight with Hamas?
Trump says he’ll sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia as crown prince arrives
Ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to the White House today, Trump announced Monday that he would sell F-35 fighter planes to the Gulf state. If fully approved, Saudi Arabia would be only the second country in the Middle East – after Israel – to successfully purchase these jets. Several other deals are set to be announced, too, including on civilian nuclear infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and even hotels, bringing the two oil-producing states closer together. Do these deals remove the incentives for Saudi to join the Abraham Accords? Not necessarily – they still would love access to Israeli tech – but it does mean they’re in less of a rush.
Ukraine is on the hunt for more funds and peace talks
Ukraine desperately needs more funds, and Europe is at an impasse on how to refill its coffers. Belgium blocked a loan plan that would use the $160 billion of Russia’s central bank assets to fund Ukraine, fearing it could be on the hook if Russia demanded its money back or retaliated against Euroclear, the Belgian central securities depository where the funds are held. While the EU is looking for ways to allay Brussels’s worries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is turning to Spain and Turkey for funds and peace deals: Madrid announced a $1.16-billion aid package after meeting with Zelensky, who is now heading to Turkey, where he will try to “reinvigorate” peace talks with Russia.What We’re Watching: Anti-graft protests resurface in the Philippines, Polish railway hit, Trump flips on Epstein files vote
Members of the religious group Iglesia ni Cristo (Church of Christ) wave their hands during the first of a three-day anti-corruption protest at the Quirino Grandstand, Manila, Philippines, November 16, 2025.
Anti-graft protests restart in the Philippines, with help of a church
More than 200,000 people took to the streets of Manila, the Philippine capital, on Monday to protest against suspected corruption in flood-control projects. A day prior, a protestant megachurch organized a rally in the Catholic-majority country of 114 million people. These aren’t the first anti-graft demonstrations in the Southeast Asian nation this fall: there were violent protests in September after a government audit showed that the government had spent billions of dollars over the last few years on substandard or non-existent projects. A pair of typhoons also ripped through the country in recent weeks, possibly adding more fuel to the fire. Protest leaders have planned another rally later this month.
Polish railway attacked
In Poland, an explosion damaged a train line that connects Warsaw to Ukraine. The line has been used to transport aid and weapons to Ukraine, and while the investigation is ongoing, Poland’s government has said that it was a “highly probable” act of sabotage by Russia. Russia has targeted Poland for being an aid hub for Ukraine – seemingly carrying out cyber attacks, arson, and other acts of sabotage since the start of the war. If Poland uncovers the attack was carried out by Moscow, it will mark an escalation of the conflict.
Trump does U-turn on Epstein files
After piling pressure on lawmakers to halt the release of the US Justice Department files on the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, President Donald Trump reversed course and said Congress should release the files. Trump said he had “nothing to hide.” It was a remarkable about-face, and showed that congressional Republicans can still press the president – it has often been the other way around since the former real estate mogul came to Washington. GOP lawmakers will hope the vote reassures voters – including the MAGA base – ahead of next year’s midterms that they are serious about investigating the Epstein case. There are still doubts over whether the bill will come to pass: The House will bring it up this week, but it remains an open question whether the Senate votes on it.What We’re Watching: Epstein files on the US House floor, Ukraine hits Russia where it hurts, RSF consolidated its grip on Darfur
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) after signing the funding bill to end the U.S. government shutdown, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 12, 2025.
The US House set to vote to release Epstein files
The House of Representatives will vote next week to compel the Justice Department to release the Epstein files, after a trove of documents this week further linked President Donald Trump with the late sex offender. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have opposed the bill, but are braced for scores of their party to vote for the release – potentially over 100, according to Politico. Their defections signal that representatives fear being seen as implicated in a cover up could come back to bite them ahead of 2026 Midterm elections. Polling shows that 67% of Republicans agree that the administration should release all the documents. However, even if the bill does pass, it is unlikely to make it out of the GOP-controlled Senate, or get the White House signature it needs to become law.
For Ukraine, is offense the best form of defense?
Ukraine is on the verge of losing another town in the eastern part of the country, and at a great cost, raising questions over whether it should spend so much defending these areas. What’s more, Russia hit several residential towers in Kyiv last night. But Ukraine did have a response, using drones and cruise missiles to strike Russia’s Novorossiysk port, which sits on the Black Sea, and halt exports of 2% of the whole world’s oil supply. Fittingly, crude prices rose 2% as a result. With Ukraine struggling to hold onto towns out east, is a better option to halt Russia a continuation of strikes deep inside enemy territory?
World’s worst war is about to get even worse
Sudan’s horrific civil war is set for a fresh escalation as the paramilitary forces battling the army look to open a new front. The Rapid Support Forces, having consolidated power in the West and the South – where they are accused of recent mass killings and acts of genocide – are now eyeing an eastward push to the Kordofan region. Sudan’s civil war, now in its third year, has already displaced at least 13 million people, forcing some four million into neighboring countries. Estimates of the death toll run to 400,000. The US yesterday called for an arms embargo against the RSF, but the effect is unclear: a recent Washington-brokered ceasefire disintegrated within days.
South Sudan President Salva Kiir prepares to welcome Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni at the Juba International Airport, ahead of meetings aimed at averting a new civil war after South Sudan's First Vice President Riek Machar was placed under house arrest, in Juba, South Sudan April 3, 2025.
South Sudan’s president fires another VP
President Salva Kiir continued to take a wrecking ball to his country’s leadership structure this week, firing Benjamin Bol Mel, who was one of his vice presidents. He also sacked the central bank governor and the head of the revenue authority without giving reasons for the removals. The move comes after President Kiir in March put then-Vice President Rick Machar under house arrest, before charging him with murder in September – Kiir and Machar had entered a power-sharing agreement to end the civil war. Experts are concerned that Kiir’s moves will pull the sub-Saharan state back into civil war, only five years after it ended.
Iran’s water crisis threatens to empty Tehran
Iran may have to evacuate its capital Tehran – home to 10 million people – if it doesn’t rain by December, according to its President Masoud Pezeshkian. The water crisis is due to decades of mismanagement and inefficient agriculture practices, compounded by a lack of access to new technology because of international sanctions. It comes as Iranians are also enduring frequent electricity and gas shortages, heightening the risk that civil unrest could destabilize the regime.
What We’re Watching: UK’s Starmer on the ropes, Mexico’s Sheinbaum beefs up security in wild West, Hamas fighters trapped in their own tunnels
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves 10 Downing Street in London, United Kingdom, on November 12, 2025.
Is the UK’s prime minister heading for the exit?
Just 18 months after Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a 174-seat majority in Parliament, he’s now clinging to power, with reports that he could be removed when he announces the budget in two weeks’ time. His allies say he will fight any attempts from within the party to oust him. Why is Starmer struggling? The economy is stagnant, he can’t unite his party, and he hasn’t crafted a clear vision for the country amid pressure from both the left and the right. To initiate the removal process, though, 20% of Labour MPs must nominate a challenger. Will any of Starmer’s allies turn on him and run against the PM?
Mexico’s president vs. the narcos of Michoacán
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is facing a major test of her security policy in the cartel-riddled western state of Michoacán, where the recent assassination of a popular mayor has sparked protests. Sheinbaum has sent in an additional 1,000 federal troops, bringing the total deployment to 10,000, and pledged $3 billion to boost security while also tackling poverty and other root causes of cartel power. Since taking office a year ago, Sheinbaum has pursued a harder line against cartels than her political patron and predecessor, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, in part because of heightened pressure from the Trump administration.
Trapped Hamas fighters put Phase 2 of ceasefire in jeopardy
As Phase 1 of Gaza's ceasefire nears its end, 200 Hamas fighters who are not being allowed to leave tunnels in Israeli-controlled Rafah have emerged as a critical obstacle. Hamas wants them to be granted safe passage to Hamas-controlled areas – an idea that US special envoy Steve Witkoff was amenable to in exchange for the terrorist group disarming. However, Israel is reluctant to allow them to go free. Phase 2 negotiations began yesterday, which will require Hamas disarmament, IDF withdrawal, a transitional government, and international peacekeepers. But resolving the tunnel standoff comes first. Even then, documents obtained by Politico reveal Trump administration officials harbor deep doubts about whether both sides will follow through on Phase 2.
What We’re Watching: Modi tested in India elections, Iraq election promises little, Cambodia-Thailand truce on the rocks
An Indian security personnel stands guard as women voters queue to cast their ballots at a polling station during the Budgam Assembly constituency bypoll in Budgam district, Jammu and Kashmir, on November 11, 2025.
Local election test for India’s prime minister
The state of Bihar, population 174 million, is holding local legislative elections seen as a test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling BJP party, which is currently in power there. Local parties aligned with the opposition Congress party are posing a stiff challenge in an election focused on poverty alleviation (Bihar is India’s poorest state) and competing welfare schemes for female voters, who are now an important bloc. But with Modi under broader economic pressure from US tariffs and Russian oil sanctions, a loss in Bihar would be a bad omen. Adding to his woes, authorities are still seeking those responsible for a terrorist attack that killed 13 outside the historic Red Fort in Delhi yesterday.
Iraq’s election pits Washington against Tehran
Iraqis head to the polls today to vote for the country’s 329-member parliament, largely disillusioned over what they see as an election that will just be used to figure out how to divide the Middle East country’s oil reserves. That’s not the top concern for Iraqis: endemic corruption, inadequate services, and high unemployment are also leaving voters frustrated. The next Parliament will also have to contend with a delicate foreign policy balance: they must placate dozens of armed groups that have Iranian ties, while the US pressures them to dismantle these groups. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s party is forecast to win the most seats but fall short of a majority.
Cambodia and Thailand suspend Trump-brokered peace deal
On Monday, Thailand suspended peace talks with Cambodia after two soldiers were killed by a landmine in disputed border territory. The two countries had been planning to start negotiations to release prisoners of war tomorrow, but that has now been called off. Cambodia denies laying new landmines – saying they are the remnants of three decades of war in the region. The two-week old Donald Trump-brokered peace agreement now hangs in the balance. The US president initiated the ceasefire by threatening to stop tariff negotiations if the conflict continued – will he intervene again to get it back on track?