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What We're Watching
People walk out of the West Wing of the White House with "The Epstein Files: Phase 1" binders, in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 27, 2025.
Trump, under GOP pressure, orders release of Epstein materials
“Happy Birthday — and may every day be another wonderful secret,” US President Donald Trump reportedly wrote in a 2003 note to child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump says the letter is “fake” and has threatened to sue media mogul Rupert Murdoch, who owns the Journal. But after days of claiming that the Epstein case was a “hoax” – despite promising to publicize the files during his 2024 campaign – Trump instructed the Justice Department to release grand jury testimony from the Epstein prosecution. This falls short of some MAGA demands for the release of all investigative materials, but Trump is under pressure: 62% of Republicans now believe he is hiding Epstein’s “client list.” Could the scandal undermine Trump’s vice-like hold on his own party?
Brazil’s government doubles down against Bolsonaro
Brazilian police on Friday raided the home of former President Jair Bolsonaro and ordered him to wear an ankle bracelet to prevent him from fleeing the country. The rightwing populist is currently on trial for plotting a coup after losing his 2022 re-election bid. The move comes just days after Trump threatened crippling tariffs on Brazil over the “witch hunt” of his pal Bolsonaro. But current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has found that bucking Trump is popular – the leftwing leader’s dismal ratings have leapt as much as 5 points since he shot back at the “gringo” president. Still, Lula must tread carefully: Brazil is deeply polarized and Bolsonaro is popular with as much as 40% of the population.
North Korea closes beaches to foreigners (shucks!)
Just weeks after North Korea unveiled the Wonsan Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone — the summer’s hottest new vacation spot — the government has abruptly closed it to foreigners. No explanation was given. So far, the only tourists allowed in have been Russian. If you were planning to spend your August beachside in North Korea, we hope you booked refundable tickets — and we can at least offer you this banger from Puppet Regime as a consolation prize.What We’re Watching: UK and Germany sign historic defense pact, US Senate cuts public media funds, Togo heads to polls
Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hold a press conference during a visit to the Airbus factory in Stevenage, Hertfordshire, Britain, July 17, 2025.
UK and Germany sign major bilateral pact
The UK and Germany have signed a wide-ranging pact that covers defense, trade and cultural exchange. The deal is historic – it’s the first ever major bilateral mutual defense agreement between the two countries – and it comes amid wider concerns about the US commitment to defense of its European allies. This is in fact the second big European defense pact that Downing Street has signed recently – it inked a nuclear defense deal with France just last week. The moves suggest that, while last month’s NATO summit ended with smiles, flattery of Trump, and big new spending pledges, Europe’s trust deficit with the US remains significant.
Senate claws back federal funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting
The US Senate on Thursday approved President Donald Trump’s request to cancel $9 billion in previously-earmarked federal funding for foreign aid and public broadcasting. The House will likely follow suit before week’s end. $8 billion of the funds will be cut from USAID-related foreign assistance programs, while $1.1 billion will be pulled from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting – a major funder of PBS and NPR. The broadcast decision, based on accusations of liberal bias, could cripple local news in rural areas and smaller communities, where stations typically rely more heavily on federal funding.
Togo to go to the polls
The small West African nation of Togo holds municipal elections today under unusually tight security, owing to protests touched off by the recent arrest of an anti-government rapper. While nominally a democracy, Togo functions as a military dictatorship, run for decades by one family. Youth-led demonstrations calling for the ouster of Faure Gnassingbe, who has ruled since 2005, gained fresh momentum recently in opposition to constitutional changes that could enable him to rule for life. Any instability in Togo could reverberate more widely in West Africa and the Sahel.
What We’re Watching: Israel hits Syria’s military HQ, Trump rings up trade wins, Cuban minister resigns over denial
Smoke rises after Israeli strikes on Syria’s defense ministry, according to Al Jazeera TV, in Damascus, Syria, on July 16, 2025.
Israel strikes Damascus as feud escalates
Israel struck Syria’s military headquarters in Damascus on Wednesday and continued to bomb areas of southern Syria where the Israel-backed Druze minority group is clashing with Bedouin tribes whom Israel says are being supported by the Syrian regime. The escalation risks further undermining Syria’s fragile post-Assad stability. Meanwhile, Israel also launched its deadliest strike on Lebanon since last year’s ceasefire, killing five Hezbollah fighters as it tries to pressure the militant group to disarm. For more on whether that could ever happen, see here.
Trump’s trade policy gathers some momentum
US President Donald Trump’s efforts to strike trade deals may finally be gathering momentum. The White House on Tuesday announced a deal with Indonesia, its first since Trump sent letters to several major trade partners threatening higher tariffs by Aug. 1. US-China tensions also appear to be easing slightly after Washington rescinded its export restrictions on AI chips. Meanwhile in Canada, Washington’s second-biggest trade partner, Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged that he’ll have to accept some US tariffs in order to reach a deal with Trump, a sign that he too may be ready to strike a trade pact.
Cuban minister resigns after denying existence of beggars
Ignorance is strength, as the slogan from George Orwell’s “1984” goes, and beggars don’t exist – at least not according to Cuban Labor Minister Marta Elena Feitó Cabrera. Her comments sparked a rare public backlash, forcing her to resign. Communist-led Cuba has been suffering from an especially painful economic crisis recently, with frequent blackouts, rising levels of poverty and hunger, and even shortages of basic medicines. The pain is so bad that at least 10% of the island’s population has fled since 2022.
What We’re Watching: Nvidia chips head east, Trump threatens tariffs on Russia, India balances alliances
Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, speaks during the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups at Porte de Versailles exhibition center in Paris, France, June 11, 2025.
US will end restrictions of AI chips exports to China, says Nvidia
The US-based chipmaker Nvidia is on a hot streak. After becoming the first ever company to be valued at $4 trillion, the firm said that the Trump administration ended its export limits on US-made H20 artificial-intelligence chips to China. The initial White House decision to curtail these exports, made in April, came after the Chinese firm DeepSeek released a powerful AI model that required far less computer power than its American cousins. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argued that these restrictions were counterproductive, because they spurred Chinese firms to develop their own chip industry. His argument appears to have resonated, and shares in Nvidia shot up 4% on Tuesday morning.
Trump threatens tariffs to force Putin into peace deal
US President Donald Trump increased pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine on Monday by imposing a 50-day deadline for Moscow to strike a peace deal or face 100% tariffs on the few goods still traded between the US and Russia. He also threatened harsh secondary sanctions — up to 500% tariffs — on any other countries still doing business with Moscow. That could in principle cripple Russia’s economy, but it would put the US at odds with major trade partners China and India, which still import most of their crude from Russia. Are people buying Trump’s threat? The ruble reversed quickly initial losses on the news, buoyed by the 50-day grace period and Trump’s tendency to extend deadlines on his most severe threats.
India’s juggling act
During a visit to Beijing this week for a gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, India’s lead diplomat Subrahmanyam Jaishankar praised China’s leadership of an organization it hails as an alternative to Western clubs like the G7. It’s another reminder that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which is also a member of the Quad security group with the United States, Japan, and Australia, and buys large volumes of Russian crude oil, is working to protect solid relations with all the major players on the world stage. Relations with China, though improved, are the most difficult balancing act, given recent violence along disputed parts of the India-China border.
Servicemen from the mobile air defence unit of the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fire a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft cannon towards a Russian drone during an overnight shift, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kharkiv Region, Ukraine June 2, 2025.
Trump to unveil major new arms support for Ukraine
Apparently fed up with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unwillingness to pause an intensified air and ground offensive against Ukraine, US President Donald Trump says Washington US will provide Kyiv with Patriot missile systems and other powerful weapons. To skirt the need for approval from Congress, where support for Ukraine is contentious, Trump says the US will sell the weapons to NATO allies, who will then dispatch them to Ukraine. The package may also include long-range missiles. This is all bad news for Russia, which seems to be hoping that its relentless airstrikes will break the military stalemate and force concessions from Kyiv in eventual ceasefire talks.
The 92-year-old who wants to be president again.
Cameroonian President Paul Biya isn’t ready to throw in the towel just yet. The reclusive 92-year old has ruled for half a century, the second longest run in the world. Last year he had to dispel rumors that he was actually dead. Nonetheless, Biya announced yesterday that he will seek yet another seven-year term atop the central African country of 30 million, which is known globally for producing oil, cocoa, and soccer superstar Samuel Eto’o. Two of Biya’s ex-allies are running to replace him in the October election, but they’ll face a steep uphill battle in a country considered less democratic than Cuba.
Israel intervenes in Syria’s sectarian clashes
Israel on Monday said it launched airstrikes on so-far-unidentified tanks in southern Syria, amid ongoing clashes there between Sunni Bedouin tribes and Druze militias that have drawn in Syrian government forces as well. While Syria’s interior ministry claims government troops entered the region to “restore order”, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based war monitor, accused Syria’s security forces of siding with the Bedouins. Israel’s intervention could complicate ongoing efforts to negotiate a Syria-Israel security arrangement. Israel has previously warned Syria’s government against harming the country’s Druze minority – which supports Israel’s existence and has members serving in the IDF.An armed PKK fighter places a weapon to be burnt during a disarming ceremony in Sulaimaniya, Iraq, July 11, 2025, in this screengrab obtained from a handout video.
Kurdish militants burn their own guns
In a symbolic ending to more than 40 years of rebellion against the Turkish government, fighters from the PKK — a Kurdish militia — melted a cache of weapons in a gigantic cauldron on Friday. Earlier this year jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan called for disarming as part of a process expected to deliver more cultural autonomy for Kurds, who make up 20% of Turkey’s population. The move shifts attention onto the future of affiliated Kurdish militias in Syria, as well as to Turkey’s parliament, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is courting support from Kurdish parties as he seeks to soften term limits.
Is the White House done with legislating?
A week after signing the One Big, Beautiful Bill into law, and just six months since taking office again, US President Donald Trump is reportedly done with pushing major legislation through Congress. As he goes into campaign mode ahead of the 2026 midterms, he will instead focus on key issues like trade and immigration via executive actions, which don’t require congressional approval but are susceptible to legal challenges. However, it seems not everyone is aligned: House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he still wants to pass two further budget reconciliation packages. Which is it? More bills or no more bills?
German constitutional court clash embarrasses Chancellor Merz
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government had to shelve a vote on appointing three judges to the Constitutional Court after one of them was accused – spuriously, it turned out – of plagiarism, and criticized by conservative coalition members for supporting abortion rights. Critics are likening the drama to US-style culture wars over the judiciary, and have warned it undermines the legitimacy of Germany’s top court. The debacle also reflects the fragility of Merz’s three-month-old coalition, which holds just a slim, 12 seat majority in the Bundestag.
What We’re Watching: Kenya’s president cracks down further, UK and France open an atomic umbrella, Trump meddles in Brazil
Riot police officers fire tear gas canisters to disperse demonstrators during anti-government protests dubbed “Saba Saba People’s March,” in the Rift Valley town of Nakuru, Kenya, on July 7, 2025.
Ruto orders police to shoot looters as Kenya protest escalate
Amid ongoing anti-government protests, Kenyan President William Ruto has ordered police to shoot looters in the legs. The order is meant to stop attacks on businesses, but could lead to more casualties after 31 people were killed on Monday alone. The youth-led protesters want Ruto to resign over high taxes, corruption allegations, and police brutality. According to Mercy Kaburu, a professor of international relations at United States International University in Nairobi, Ruto’s government “is not at risk of collapse before the next general election” which is set for 2027. But, she cautions, he “could be threatened if nothing changes.”
United Kingdom and France to open their nuclear umbrella
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a landmark deal aimed Thursday at restricting the flow of migrants across the English Channel. But the cross-channel agreement that may draw more attention globally is a pledge from Europe’s only two nuclear-armed nations to extend their nuclear umbrellas to allies on the continent who face an “extreme threat.” This is a big step toward “common European defense” at a time when Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and uncertainty about the US long-term commitment to NATO have prompted more urgent action in Europe.
Trump uses tariffs to meddle in Brazil
US President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the US will slap 50% on Brazil starting on August 1. The reason? Trump blasted Brazil for its “unfair” treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a rightwing firebrand and close Trump ally who is currently on trial for allegedly plotting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election. Trump also cited an “unsustainable” US trade deficit with Brazil, though official data show the US actually runs a small trade surplus with Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil’s leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, reportedly blindsided by the announcement, has vowed to respond with reciprocal measures.
See below for Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take on what Trump’s move really means.