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What We're Watching
What We’re Watching: Israel commences Gaza City ground invasion, Election day in Malawi, India-US seek to mend trade ties
Palestinians, displaced by the Israeli military offensive, take shelter in a tent camp, amid an Israeli operation, in Gaza City, September 16, 2025.
Israel commences Gaza City ground invasion amid UN genocide report
The war in Gaza is intensifying further, as the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) commenced a long-planned ground operation in the enclave’s largest city on Tuesday. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are still sheltering in the area, which faced an aerial bombardment in recent days. Israel argues that the ground invasion is the best way to free the remaining 48 hostages held by Hamas, 20 of whom are believed to be alive, and prevent the militant group from reorganizing. The escalation comes as a United Nations inquiry concluded Tuesday that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu incited this act. Israel called the report “fake.”
Economic gloom hovers over Malawi election
Malawians voted Tuesday in a tight presidential race between incumbent Lazarus Chakwera and former leader Peter Mutharika amid soaring inflation, food shortages, and deep poverty. Fifteen other candidates, including ex-President Joyce Banda, are also running. Economic stagnation, corruption allegations, and climate-linked disasters have fueled public frustration in the southeast African country of 22 million, where most people live on less than $3 a day. Both major contenders face graft accusations, and analysts expect a likely run-off if no candidate surpasses 50% of the vote. Parliamentary and local elections are also underway, with results expected within a week.
Are India-US trade tensions set to dissipate?
US officials are in Delhi today to discuss whether these two major geopolitical powers can reach a trade deal. Tensions have been simmering in recent months after US President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian imports, purportedly over their purchases of Russian oil – some experts believe Trump’s gambit was really about bargaining position. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who once had a close relationship with Trump, rebuffed the US leader’s call to stop. However, there is growing optimism that the two sides can work out a deal – Trump and Modi even exchanged hopeful messages on social medialast week.
What we’re watching: Trump reaches TikTok deal, Far-right surges in German state election, Africa to team up on critical minerals
Senior U.S. and Chinese led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang meet to discuss trade and economic issues and TikTok, in Madrid, Spain, September 14, 2025.
TikTok deal emerges ahead of possible Trump-Xi phonecall
In an announcement teeming with viral potential, the White House said the US and China have outlined a deal for TikTok to continue operating in the US. The China-controlled social media giant faced a September 17 deadline to accept US ownership or be banned over national security concerns. So far so good, but the news comes as both sides are jockeying very strongly for position in trade talks this week: Beijing has accused US chip giant Nvidia of violating Chinese antitrust laws, just days after Washington blacklisted 23 Chinese tech companies. Donald Trump says he and President Xi Jinping will speak directly on Friday.
Germany’s AfD triples vote in state election
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 14.5% of the vote in Sunday’s local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state and home to a quarter of its population. Centrist parties received the most votes, with the CDU at 33.3%, and the SPD at 22.1%, but the AfD surpassed the Greens at 13.5%, as they had done in February’s federal elections. This time, twenty thousand parliamentary seats in 400 towns and municipalities were up for grabs, and while the election does not directly impact the national government, it confirms the AfD’s growing popularity outside its traditional eastern base, chiefly due to concerns about housing and migration.
African Union to form critical minerals coalition
Africa holds 30% of the world’s reserves of critical minerals – an essential component of advanced and green technologies. But producers there exert little control over the global market for these resources, and the wealth they generate. To change that, the 54-nation African Union has announced a coalition of producers to coordinate strategies for production and investment. China currently dominates the industry on the continent, but the US is muscling in too. This new coalition hopes to balance this great power scramble, and profit from it.
What we’re watching: Kirk’s suspected killer in custody, Germany’s largest state goes to the polls, Turkish court weighs ouster of opposition leader
A combination photo shows a person of interest in the fatal shooting of U.S. right-wing activist and commentator Charlie Kirk during an event at Utah Valley University, in Orem, Utah, U.S. shown in security footage released by the Utah Department of Public Safety on September 11, 2025.
US authorities arrest suspect in Charlie Kirk murder
Law enforcement has arrested Tyler Robinson, a 22-year old man, accusing him of fatally shooting conservative activist Charlie Kirk on Wednesday. Officials said Robinson had admitted involvement in the crime and left extensive physical and digital evidence tying him to the killing. His political beliefs and motivations are not yet known, but they are sure to be a source of bitterly polarized debate and tension as they emerge. People close to Robinson reported he had become more political in recent months. Authorities said bullet casings belonging to him had been found carrying messages including “Hey fascist, catch!” and “if you read this you are gay, LMAO.”
Germany’s heavyweight state holds key election
This Sunday voters go to the polls for a local election in Germany’s most populous and industrialized state, Rhineland-Westphalia, in an early test for conservative Chancellor Freidrich Merz, who took power in May amid widespread concerns about immigration and the economy. Merz’ governing coalition holds a lead in the former West German state, which is home to a quarter of Germans, but faces a stiff challenge from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has notched record gains in recent elections. Can the AfD, which has historically been strongest in eastern Germany, start to translate its eastern promise into western gains? The results will be a major political bellwether in Europe’s largest economy.
Turkish court to decide fate of key opposition leader
A Turkish court will rule early next week on whether to depose the leader of the country’s main opposition group, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). Over the past year, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has cracked down ferociously on the CHP, arresting hundreds of its members including, briefly, Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Erdogan’s most prominent rival. Erdogan and his allies say the moves are meant to root out corruption and ties to terrorism. Critics say they’re an attempt to undermine Turkey’s democratic institutions. The ruling is expected Monday.What We’re Watching: Nepal’s protesters pick a leader, Trump courts Belarus
A member of Nepal army stands guard as people gather to observe rituals during the final day of Indra Jatra festival to worship Indra, Kumari and other deities and to mark the end of monsoon season.
Nepal’s Gen Z’s protestors pick their woman
Nepal’s “Gen-Z” protest movement has looked to a different generation entirely with their pick for an interim leader. Protest leaders say they want the country’s retired chief justice, Sushila Karki, 73, to head a transitional government. The demand comes just two days after the prime minister resigned amid swelling anti-corruption protests triggered last week by a social media ban. Karki has reportedly accepted, but is currently negotiating with the president and other powerbrokers to find a constitutional path to power. For an explanation of these protests which are not “mid", see GZERO’s feature from yesterday.
Trump’s Belarus courtship continues
The ultra-authoritarian Belarusian regime of Alexander Lukashenko has released 52 prisoners, reportedly at the urging of the White House. Meanwhile, the US says plans are afoot to normalize ties with the deeply isolated country, Russia’s closest ally. The Trump Administration has poured a lot of effort into relations with Lukashenko, whose 31-year reign, crackdowns on dissent, and election-rigging have earned him the moniker “Europe’s last Dictator.” Lukashenko has styled himself as a kind of “Putin Whisperer.” Is Trump seeking a bridge to the Russian president, or a potential wedge against him?
What We’re Watching: Russian drones in NATO airspace, Africa climate summit, and Iran resuming nuclear inspections
General Wieslaw Kukula, chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, takes part in an extraordinary government cabinet meeting at the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, following violations of Polish airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine in Warsaw, Poland, on September 10, 2025.
Russian drones shot down over Poland
NATO jets last night shot down Russian drones that had entered Polish airspace. Poland said the unmanned aircraft had crossed the border en route to a strike on Ukraine. The incident is the most serious direct engagement between NATO and Russia in recent memory, and it prompted Poland to invoke NATO’s Article 4, which triggers consultations within the alliance. Was the Kremlin testing NATO’s resolve? Moscow said only that it “did not seek escalation with Poland.” Donald Trump is set to speak with Poland’s president about the incident later today.
African climate summit pushes $100bn green plan
African leaders are meeting in Ethiopia this week to “design the world's next climate economy” at the second Africa Climate Summit. The gathering is one of many global efforts to fill the gap of global climate policy leadership after the US withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement in January of 2025. Africa is especially vulnerable to climate-driven droughts, landslides, and floods, but receives just 1% of global climate financing. Leaders, lenders, and commercial banks at the summit signed a $100 billion pledge to support “green industrialization” at the summit.
Iran agrees to international nuclear inspections
Iran agreed on Tuesday to let a U.N. watchdog resume monitoring its nuclear facilities, ending a three-month halt after the US and Israel bombed its sites back in June. The move may help Tehran avoid renewed European sanctions at a moment when its economy is already struggling mightily. It's unclear how much the US-Israeli strikes damaged Iran’s nuclear program, but analysts warned afterwards that Tehran could secretly race to build atomic bombs in the absence of international oversight. Once the U.N. watchdogs regain access, what will they find?What We’re Watching: Israel strikes Hamas leaders in Qatar, Nepal prime minister resigns, Norway election results
A damaged building, following an Israeli attack on Hamas leaders, according to an Israeli official, in Doha, Qatar, September 9, 2025.
Israel strikes Hamas leaders in Qatar
Israel on Monday conducted a brazen assassination attempt on senior Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital of Doha. As of now, their fate is unknown. Qatar and other Gulf Arab monarchies condemned the strike, which came as the Hamas leaders were discussing a Gaza ceasefire proposal from Donald Trump. The US president on Sunday had issued a “last warning” to Hamas to accept his terms, which he said Israel had agreed to. Israel says it carried out the operation entirely on its own, but what the US or others knew about it and when is a big question. Another question: will Qatar continue to act as a mediator between Israel and Hamas after this?
Nepal’s prime minister steps down amid growing protests
Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli resigned on Tuesday, while protestors set the parliament on fire and attacked politicians’ homes, a day after at least 19 demonstrators were killed on Monday in ongoing protests over corruption and a social media ban. Oli, the leader of Nepal’s Communist Party, has run the Himalayan nation for much of the last decade, and his exit leaves a dizzying power vacuum. The “Gen Z” protest movement wants youth representatives to lead an interim government. Army leaders have called for calm. But no one has stepped in with a plan, risking a deeper descent into violence.
Norway’s center-left party wins again
Norway’s governing Labor Party claimed victory in Monday’s general election, with the center-left bloc winning 87 of 169 seats. The campaign centered largely on the country’s wealth tax, which Labor vows to preserve. The result bucked the trend of establishment center-left incumbents getting hammered at the polls in Europe, but it also underscored the rising appeal of the right: Norway’s anti-immigration, Eurosceptic Progress Party surged to its best-ever result. Labor will now have to rely on a coalition of smaller left-wing parties to pass its agenda.What We’re Watching: Japan’s PM steps down, France to oust Prime Minister, Protesters killed after Nepal bans social media
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba attends an interview with reporters about running for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo, on September 8, 2025.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigns
The center-right leader of the world’s fourth-largest economy was in power for less than a year, but he had been under pressure after a disastrous midterm election result saw his LDP party lose its majority in both houses for the first time since World War Two. Unusually high inflation, a sluggish economy, and deepening intraparty tensions ultimately did him in. The campaign to replace him as party leader is already under way, with the moderate Koizumi Shinjiro and conservative Sanae Takaichi the current front runners – the election is expected to take place in October, though it could come before the end of the month.
France to oust Prime Minister over spending cuts
French Prime Minister François Bayrou will likely lose a confidence vote today over his unpopular cost-cutting budget – making him the fourth French premier to fall in less than two years. With debt at nearly 114% of GDP and deficits far above European Union limits, Bayrou is dying (politically) on the hill that overspending threatens the country’s survival. President Emmanuel Macron must now appoint a new PM. Will he tap someone from the leftwing coalition that held the far right at bay for him in the 2024 snap elections? The turmoil risks further credit downgrades, rising bond spreads, and social unrest.
Nepalese “Gen Z” protest against social media shutdown turns deadly
At least 19 people were killed during a “Gen Z” protest in Nepal’s capital of Kathmandu on Monday, as police fired rubber bullets and tear gas at a crowd of people demonstrating against the country’s recent shutdown of social media. Some protestors had forced their way into the parliament complex and set fire to an ambulance. The government said it banned social media because platforms including Facebook, WhatsApp, and WeChat failed to register with the authorities. Critics believe it’s part of a broader crackdown on free speech in the Himalayan country of nearly 30 million people.