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What We're Watching
Trump calls off trade talks with Canada
Just as the Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series tonight, US President Donald Trump abruptly canceled trade talks with Canada on Thursday after an ad quoting Ronald Reagan’s warning that tariffs “hurt every American” was aired in Ontario. The move derails a brief thaw between the neighbors and major trading partners. Prime Minister Mark Carney has talked tough on US protectionism, but Canada’s reliance on its southern neighbor leaves him little room to maneuver — the last time Trump suspended talks, Ottawa quickly backed off a proposed digital tax. We’ll be watching to see how Carney tries to get Trump back to the negotiating table.
Court throws out case to oust Turkish opposition leader
A Turkish court has thrown out the case calling for the main opposition leader, Republican People’s Party chair Ozgur Ozel, to be ousted from power and for his party’s congress to be annulled. The court case involved supposed irregularities during the party’s internal elections in 2023, during which Ozel was elected and would later go on to energize the opposition and defeat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party in municipal elections. The decision is a boost for democracy in a country that is fighting against authoritarian pressures.
Cameroon on edge as election results set to finally arrive
It’s been nearly two weeks since Cameroon held its presidential election, yet the results are only set to arrive on Monday. The waiting has put some of the 30 million Cameroonians on edge, with protests sprouting across the West African country this week. Uprisings in the northern city of Garoua turned deadly as the authorities clamp down on dissent. The 92-year-old President Paul Biya is attempting to win an eighth term in office, but opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary has already declared himself the winner and said he won’t accept a stolen vote. Meanwhile, judges rejected several petitions to cancel the vote.What We’re Watching: Trump changes tune again on Russia, China helps Myanmar’s junta gain ground, Brazil’s Lula announces reelection bid
U.S. President Donald Trump listens as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during a joint press conference at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., February 13, 2025.
Trump sanctions Russia’s biggest oil firms
Missing a date has consequences: days after canceling a second meeting this year with Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, a sign of Washington’s growing frustration with the Kremlin. Europe piled on, imposing its 19th set of sanctions on Moscow. Oil prices jumped in response. In a sign that India, the second-biggest purchaser of Russian oil, could abide by these sanctions, Delhi’s top refiner is looking at halting purchases from Moscow. Further, The Wall Street Journal reported that the White House has authorized Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia. Trump denied the report, but a Russian munitions factory some 1,000 miles from the Ukrainian border was hit last night, killing at least 10.
Myanmar’s junta gains ground with China’s help
Myanmar’s military junta has regained key territory in Shan State, reversing major losses from last year’s insurgent offensives in the country’s brutal four-year civil war. Since the 2021 coup that ousted the previous pro-democracy leader, ethnic armies and local militias have battled to topple military rule. The army has now retaken strategically important towns in the Shan State using new Chinese-supplied drones, airpower, and 60,000 conscripts. China’s growing support has tilted the balance decisively toward the junta, even as large parts of Myanmar remain contested and devastated by civil war.
Brazil’s president to seek a fourth term
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, announced on Thursday that he will run for reelection in 2026, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term at 79 years old. Lula’s popularity has been on the rise in reaction to Trump’s tariffs and pressure to drop the case against former President Jair Bolsonaro – who was convicted of inciting a coup. Lula is sharpening his rich-versus-poor rhetoric as he begins his campaign around the country, calling for higher taxes on the wealthy, fintechs, and gambling companies. It is unclear who will oppose him, but Bolsonaro is likely to serve as a kingmaker in choosing the next leader of his right-wing movement.
A forensic expert examines the premises of a private kindergarten in the Kholodnohirskyi district hit by three Russian Shahed drones in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on October 22, 2025.
Russia bombs Ukraine after second Trump-Putin date called off
Hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump canceled plans for a second meeting in Budapest, Russian forces hit Ukraine with missiles and drones, killing at least seven people, including two children. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky argued that the strikes showed Russia hadn’t come under enough pressure for its war, pointing indirectly to the US’s refusal to lend Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv. There had been some momentum for US-Russia talks following last week’s call between Trump and Putin, which the US leader called “very productive.” That has now dissipated, and Trump said yesterday he didn’t want to go ahead with a “wasted meeting.” Trump is, though, meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte today to discuss the war.
Proposed EU climate rules prompt warning from the US and Qatar
The Trump administration continues to be a thorn in the side of the European Union, this time teaming up with Qatar to warn the customs union of consequences to its trade, investment, and energy supplies if it follows through with a plan to introduce new environmental regulations. The joint US-Qatar letter to the EU referenced not only its supply of liquefied natural gas – a key import for Europe ever since it imposed sanctions on Russia – but also the US-EU trade deal that was struck in July. The proposed EU law will allow member states to impose large fines on firms whose supply chains damage the environment or human rights, and is set to be phased in from 2027. The group is exploring revisions to it this week.
Ireland set to pick opposition candidate for president
Irish voters will head to the polls to elect a new president on Friday, and left-wing contender Catherine Connolly has a resounding lead over the center-right Heather Humphreys in the polls. Connolly has reignited the left-wing opposition after it failed to break the center-right coalition’s century-long grip on power last year. Known for her pro-Palestinian stance and skepticism of the EU, Connolly’s election would put an independent voice – she doesn’t belong to any one party – into the largely ceremonial role.
What We’re Watching: US-Australia unite against China, Historic shipment marks Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal, Washington tries to keep ceasefire alive
U.S. President Donald Trump and Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese sign an agreement on rare earth and critical minerals during a meeting in the Cabinet Room at the White House, in Washington, D.C., U.S., October 20, 2025.
US and Australia make deals to counter China
President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced new defense and economic agreements aimed at countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific during their meeting in Washington yesterday. The leaders unveiled an $8.5 billion rare-earth deal to boost US supplies after China placed export restrictions on Washington. Meanwhile, Trump reaffirmed strong US backing for AUKUS, pledging to move “full steam ahead” on helping Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines. Canberra, meanwhile, has been expanding its military capabilities and signing defense pacts with Pacific Island nations to push back against Beijing’s regional dominance.
Azerbaijan-Armenia peace progress gets granular, literally.
For the first time since the waning days of the USSR, a Kazakh grain shipment has crossed Azerbaijan en route to Armenia. It’s OK if you didn’t just leap out of your chair with delirious joy. But remember: Armenia and Azerbaijan have been at war for most of the past 40 years, largely over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian separatist enclave within Azerbaijan. Two years ago, the Azeris retook the area. Two months ago, the Trump Administration brokered a peace deal. Obstacles remain – the Azeris still want Armenia to scrap constitutional references to Nagorno-Karabakh. But the grain train suggests peace is slowly taking root, in a way that could transform the South Caucasus more broadly.
Aiming to keep the peace, US deploys Vance to Israel
US officials are increasingly concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could end the ceasefire in Gaza, per a New York Times report. Seeking to firm up the deal, US Vice President JD Vance is in Israel today to meet with the country’s leaders, a rare foray to the Middle East for the man who has often focused on retaining the MAGA coalition rather than any specific policy areas. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump again warned Hamas against violating the agreement. Further complicating matters, the threat of clashes with Hamas is making countries reluctant to send soldiers to Gaza to act as peacekeeping forces, a crucial part of the ceasefire deal signed last week.
What We’re Watching: Tense Gaza ceasefire holding again, Trump pressed Zelensky on Donbas during Friday meeting, Japan to have first female PM
Displaced Palestinians live in tents near destroyed buildings as they cannot return to their houses, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, on October 19, 2025.
Ceasefire returns to Gaza after weekend exchange of fire
The US and the Israeli military said Sunday that the ceasefire is holding again in Gaza, after the two sides exchanged fire over the weekend in what was the biggest test so far of the peace plan signed last week. The flare up appeared to begin when Hamas militants – reportedly acting independent of the group’s leadership – hit Israeli soldiers with gunfire and anti-tank missiles, killing two soldiers. Israeli forces responded with a wave of airstrikes, killing 26 people, per local authorities. Israel said it bombed Hamas targets in the enclave, but one of the strikes hit a former school that was sheltering some displaced persons. The ceasefire remains a tenuous one, as Israel seeks the return of the remains of the last 16 hostages, while Hamas demands more aid. The next 30 days, per one US official, will be “critical.”
Trump presses Zelensky to cede Donbas in heated meeting
US President Donald Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to give up the Donbas region and accept a ceasefire deal on Friday, during a meeting that reportedly devolved into a “shouting match” where Trump echoed the talking points that Russian President Vladimir Putin made on their call the day before. Zelensky hoped the meeting would result in the US supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, a request Trump denied. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will speak in the coming days to prepare a new Trump-Putin summit in the next few weeks – something Zelensky signaled he would be open to attending if invited.
Japan set to have first female PM
Sanae Takichi, elected leader of the center-right Liberal Democratic Party last week, is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister, after her party penned a coalition deal with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party on Monday. The agreement means Takichi will have just enough support when Parliament votes on her ascension tomorrow. The Japan Innovation Party replaces Komeito as the LDP’s coalition partner following outgoing PM Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to resign, meaning the government will take a more pro-business approach. Takichi won’t be the first female leader of Japan, though: Eight empresses have previously ruled over the island.
What We’re Watching: Peru declares state of emergency, Trump to meet Zelensky after Putin call, Bangladesh seeks to end political upheaval
People attend a vigil in memory of Mauricio Ruiz, a 32-year-old man who was killed during Wednesday's protest against Peru's President Jose Jeri, days after Jeri took office, in Lima, Peru, on October 16, 2025.
Peru declares state of emergency in capital city
It’s been a rough period for the country that is renowned for the stunning and peaceful mountain citadel of Machu Picchu. About a month ago, protests broke out against President Dina Boluarte’s pension reforms, government corruption and rising crime. Last weekend, the Congress impeached Boluarte and removed her from office over her failure to address these issues. Now, the Peruvian government is declaring a state of emergency in Lima after the protests, which haven’t stopped, turned deadly – police shot and killed a 32-year-old man on Wednesday at demonstrations outside the Congress.
With Gaza deal done, can Trump bring peace to Ukraine?
US President Donald Trump said he had a “very productive” phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday, the first time they had spoken since their Alaska meeting in August, adding that they would have another in-person meeting in the Hungarian capital of Budapest in the next few weeks. The call, which the Kremlin said came at Putin’s behest, came right before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s White House visit, where he was expected to ask about which weapons systems the US can provide him. Trump had reportedly been mulling sending Tomahawk missiles to the Ukrainians, but he appeared to pour cold water on the idea following his chat with Putin.
Bangladesh’s new charter doesn’t please all
Bangladesh has been engulfed by chaos ever since then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina allegedly ordered the use of lethal force on student protesters last year. Trying to find a path forward, the South Asian country’s leading parties came together Friday to sign a new political charter. Yet not everyone is happy: Violent protests broke out in Dhaka amid the signing, as demonstrators felt the charter didn’t have a means to guarantee its commitments, including providing justice for the victims of last year’s killings. Meanwhile Bangladeshi prosecutors are seeking the death penalty for the former leader over her actions during last year’s deadly demonstrations. With elections scheduled for February, can the Bangladeshi government establish some calm among its 173-million-strong population?What We’re Watching: The CIA returns to LatAm, Russia faces oil squeeze, China cracks down on church network
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro prepares to leave at the end of a press conference, days after he said Venezuela would deploy military, police and civilian defenses at 284 "battlefront" locations across the country, amid heightened tensions with the U.S., in Caracas, Venezuela, September 15, 2025.
Does Trump want regime change in Venezuela?
The 1970s called: US President Donald Trump confirmed a report yesterday that he authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct covert operations in Venezuela, the latest military escalation from the White House against the Latin American nation. The exact nature of the operation is unclear, though Trump said he’s exploring land operations. Venezuelan bonds have jumped amid the escalation. So far, the US military has bombed several ships that have come from Venezuela, killing 27 people, but has yet to hit Venezuela within its borders. The US has been rapidly expanding its military presence in the region, which begs the question of whether Trump actually wants to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from office.
Is Russia about to face the squeeze?
Indian oil refiners are reportedly preparing to cut purchases of Russian oil, a move that could have major consequences for the Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine. Moscow stands to lose a large tranche of export income: Oil comprises the bulk of its exports, and India is the second-largest importer of this fossil fuel behind China. The move comes as the US explores sending tomahawks missiles to Ukraine – Trump is set to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington tomorrow to discuss further military support. There is some debate, though, over whether India will actually turn off the taps – Delhi wants to maintain good standing with Moscow, and appeared to deny the report. For more on why India values its relationship with Russia, read here.
Attending a “house church” in China could get you arrested
China has arrested dozens of Christians in its largest crackdown in years. The arrests are believed to target Zion Church’s underground “house church” network, which operate in private homes outside strict Chinese regulations on religious life. Rights groups say this may signal a wider campaign against underground churches as President Xi Jinping tightens control. US officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have condemned the arrests, while Zion Church’s leaders say persecution will only strengthen China’s underground faith.