We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
Alex Kliment
Alex Kliment is Creative Director at GZERO Media and a Senior Editor of GZERO Daily. He also writes and directs Puppet Regime, GZERO's political satire puppet series. Alex first joined Eurasia Group in 2006 as a Russia analyst, after which he co-founded the firm's first Emerging Markets practice and later led a research team serving the firm's corporate clients. He's also worked previously as a journalist for the Financial Times in Washington, DC, and São Paulo, Brazil. Alex holds degrees from Columbia University and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Alex speaks a few languages and is the only person you will ever meet who has impersonated a New York City phone booth, killed Alexander Hamilton in a suburban commuter parking lot, and done a better Trump voice than Alec Baldwin (bring it on, Alec.)
Surprising zero people, Vladimir Putin on Sunday "won" his fifth term as Russia’s president.
The result was not close: Russia's electoral authorities say Putin took 87% of the vote with 77% turnout. A landslide was never in question, as Putin has systematically eliminated any opposition to his rule.
Putin has now ruled Russia for 25 years. When he first became president, no one had ever heard of "YouTube,” Italy’s economy was still bigger than China’s, and Britney Spears ruled the Billboard with “One More Time.” But now, a quarter of a century later, is Putin more powerful than ever?
Consider:
- His economy has largely weathered sanctions and is humming again — on a war footing.
- He faced down an insurrection from his own warlord protege last year.
- He dispatched his most eloquent and charismatic critic to the grave.
- The war in Ukraine wasn’t the four-day cakewalk to Kyiv he imagined, but Russia again has the upper hand in a grinding war of attrition as Ukraine scrambles to find more military aid.
- The Putin-curious Donald Trump leads the polls ahead of this fall’s US presidential election.
To be clear, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Russia is a long-term loser as a result of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. Willis Sparks recently outlined them here.
And Russia today is a far cry from the booming country of 2006-2012 that was pumping oil at $120 a barrel and winning bids for the World Cup and the Olympics while Putin gallivanted around on a horse, in an F1 car, or in a giant Siberian crane disguise.
But Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin currently has virtually unfettered control over the economy, society, and war machine of a nuclear superpower. The big question now is what he’ll do with that power next, and who might stand in his way.
“Do you know,”
Jhon asked me, shivering slightly in the lengthening afternoon shadows of New York’s Penn Station, “do you know if we can stay here – in America?”
Jhon is a wiry 42-year-old construction worker who fled Ecuador a month ago with his wife and four children. The recent surge of narco-violence there had gotten so bad, he said, that the local school switched to virtual classes for the safety of the students and their parents.
Now, after a trying journey by foot, boat, bus, and train, he was standing in the middle of New York City, bewildered but hopeful.
“I just want to work,” he told me. “I don’t want anyone to take care of me or to rely on anyone else. I just want to be able to work.”
But in those early moments, Jhon and his family did need help – to find their way to New York’s intake center for migrants seeking shelter, to learn to navigate the city’s byzantine health and legal systems, to stay on track with their asylum applications.
In that way, he is like many of the more than 170,000 undocumented migrants who have arrived in New York City over the past two years, most of them on buses from Texas.
The city government says it’s struggling to deal with the influx. Mayor Eric Adams has warned that providing services to the migrants will “destroy this city” and cost more than $12 billion. But a small group of grassroots non-profits has stepped up to welcome, orient, and support the new arrivals.
I met Jhon while shadowing Power Malu, an Afro-Puerto Rican activist from New York’s Lower East Side, whose Artists Athletes Activists organization is one of the subjects of a new report I’ve been working on for our TV show “GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.”
Nearly every day and night for almost two years, Power’s been at Gotham’s various bus and train stations, welcoming migrants like Jhon, giving a guiding hand to people who arrive in a city of millions after a journey of months and simply don’t know whom to trust or where to go.
Over the past few weeks, we’ve spent many hours with Power and other activists in New York – like Adama Bah, a formerly undocumented migrant from Guinea who has built the largest Black-oriented migrant services network in the city (a big deal given that migrants from Haiti or West Africa are chronically underserved by systems geared mainly towards Latinos), and Ilze Thielmann, who started a free “store” that gives clothing, strollers, and toiletries to recent migrants.
Along the way, we met people like Igor, a refugee from violence in Burundi who left behind a cushy job as an IT manager and traveled through Mexico on foot with his pregnant wife to get to the US. He finally got asylum several weeks ago.
Or Brandon, from Venezuela, who braved the treacherous Darién Gap and the constant gauntlets of extortion, kidnapping, and violence in Mexico on his journey to New York, and who now works with Power to welcome others who followed the same route.
Why did my producer Molly Rubin and I pick this subject? Migration is now the top political issue in America. A recent poll showed close to three in 10 voters say border policy is their primary concern, topping the list for the first time since 2019, and outstripping other perennial contenders like “the economy,” “inflation,” or the always exciting “crime.”
But when it comes to the crisis at the southern border and its impact on Northern cities, the gigantic numbers can dull your sense of what is actually happening here: A story about “millions” of migrants crossing the border, or the “billions” of dollars it will cost, is still a story about individual human beings, with names, who have lived stories of tremendous suffering, perseverance, and dedication.
“Everything is political,” we often say at GZERO. And that’s true. But everything political is ultimately personal too. If it’s not, why would it matter at all?
This is one story that Molly and I hope will drive that home. You can check it out here, and let us know what you think.
Learn more about the organizations mentioned in this report:
Mahmoud Abbas, the 88-year-old president of the widely unpopular Palestinian Authority, on Thursday named Muhammad Mustafa as the authority’s prime minister. Given Abbas’s age, and the need for a successor as leader of the PA who can offer some credible alternative to Hamas as the political voice of Palestinians, Mustafa will now become the subject of wide international scrutiny.
So, who is he? Mustafa is a trained economist with a degree from George Washington University in Washington, DC. His current job is head of the Palestine Investment Fund, the Palestinian Territories’ sovereign development fund. He has also served as the PA’s economy minister and deputy prime minister.
More to the point, Mustafa is a longtime PA insider who owes his career and standing to Abbas. For those hoping the aging president would choose a dynamic, independent-minded leader as PM who might lead in a bold new direction, Mustafa is an unpopular choice – one that signals Abbas intends to remain the dominant voice in the PA for as long as he can.
0: Is Canada complying with its obligation, under the revamped NAFTA accords, to stop importing goods that are made with forced labor? A Politico report earlier this week suggested Canadian border services officials were starting to detain shipments from Western China, where Beijing is accused of using slave labor among the Uighur population. But the Globe and Mail reports that zero imports have so far been rejected. Of particular concern are exports of relatively inexpensive Chinese solar panels, which have helped businesses and homes wean themselves off fossil fuels without breaking the bank.
7: Speaking of China, authorities are probing the cause of a massive explosion on Thursday at a fried chicken restaurant near Beijing that left at least 7 people dead and 27 injured. The incident comes amid a big safety crackdown on restaurants following a fatal gas explosion at a barbecue restaurant last year. Crispy fact: Fried chicken is wildly popular in China – KFC was the first US fast food chain to open in China when the country opened up in 1978.
795,000: The US imports an average of about 795,000 head of cattle from Canada every year, but there’s a fresh beef this week over new meat labeling requirements in the US. The Biden administration on Monday issued new rules that permit sellers to label their products as “made in the USA” only when the animals were born, raised, slaughtered, and packaged within the 50 states. The Canadian meat industry says the new rules will depress Canadian exports and raise prices for American meat-lovers.
1: A study in Alberta has determined that even if renewable energy sources grew rapidly, they would still take up less than 1% of the sprawling province’s land two decades from now. The findings come amid a frothy local debate about the merits of giving precious farmland to cows, crops, or wind farms. The government recently imposed a moratorium on the use of any prime land for renewables until a consensus is reached.
7,000: Border patrol in the Swanton Sector, which touches the US states of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire, arrested some 7,000 migrants trying to cross illegally into the United States last year, more than in the past 12 years combined. With so much attention on the US southern border, migrants (and human traffickers) are setting their sights up north. To put those 7,000 in perspective, in December alone, US border agents encountered 250,000 undocumented migrants entering from Mexico.Hard Numbers: Forest of Dollar Trees axed, Danes for drafts, Colombia reforms stall, Don Lemon X-communicated, Wilders won't be PM
1,000: Dollar Tree, a major discount food and variety chain, will close 1,000 stores across the United States. The chain’s stores are often the only source of food in low-income communities that would otherwise be “food deserts,” but the stores and others like them have faced strong criticism for driving out independent grocers and selling unhealthy products.
11: Denmark has proposed to expand military conscription, nearly tripling service time to 11 months and drafting women for the first time. The move comes as a number of European countries weigh reintroducing drafts (see Daily writer Alex Kliment’s recent column on that here). But look closely and the Danes want to expand the size of their conscription force by a mere … 300 people.
8: At least eight of the 14 Colombian senators on a key committee will vote to shelve President Gustavo Petro’s healthcare reform, in a major blow to the left-wing president’s plans to expand the state’s role in healthcare and pensions. Petro, a former Marxist guerilla and capital city mayor, was elected in 2022 on a wave of anti-establishment frustrations. Since then, his agenda has stalled and his poll numbers have fallen, raising fears that he may try to mobilize the streets to defend his agenda.
1: It took just one interview with Elon Musk for former CNN host Don Lemon’s new partnership deal with X to fall apart. Musk said Lemon “lacked authenticity” and accused him of being a mouthpiece for CNN head Jeff Zucker. Lemon says he had a deal with X and “expects to be paid.” Want to see it? Lemon plans to drop the interview on social media platforms on Monday.16: Far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders has abandoned his bid to become prime minister after 16 weeks of negotiations, saying that he recognized he could not gain the support of all coalition members. The Netherlands may now take an unusual path to a government, wherein the leaders of each party in the coalition do not take cabinet positions.
Hard Numbers: Republicans regret Trump, Bosnia gets EU pathway, Pakistan swears in cabinet, Somalia’s pirates seize the moment
50 million:Donald Trump may have a chokehold on the Republican Party, but that doesn’t mean he has a grip on all Republicans. The group Republicans Voters Against Trump, which first appeared in 2020, has recently raised $50 million to produce a campaign of video testimonials by Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but say they just can’t do it again this year.
30: Almost 30 years since the end of the Yugoslav civil wars, Bosnia and Herzegovina will be invited to begin EU accession talks, despite still-simmering ethnic tensions between Bosniaks and Serbs in the country. The talks are no guarantee of joining, which can take many years, but the perception of growing Russian influence in the Balkans has heightened Brussels’ interest in getting membership talks on track. Of the six former Yugoslav republics, only Slovenia and Croatia are in the EU.
19: Pakistan’s newly elected Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has a cabinet in place after its 19 members were sworn in earlier this week. They have their work cut out for them. Pakistan is mired in a severe economic crisis and must, almost immediately, negotiate a fresh $3 billion IMF loan package. Meanwhile, the streets are still hot with protesters supporting jailed opposition leader and former PM Imran Khan, whose alliance won the most votes in last month’s election but was shut out of government by Sharif’s coalition.
23: For the first time since December, Somali pirates successfully hijacked a vessel off the Horn of Africa, taking the 23 crew members of a Bangladeshi-flagged bulk carrier hostage. As Houthi attacks in the Red Sea draw much of the naval security attention in the region, the fearsome pirates of Somali are letting that Jolly Roger fly.Hard Numbers: Pakistan’s well-fed predators, Russia’s cool prices, Biden’s unrealistic budget, Telegram’s big moment
20: What can 20 Pakistani rupees ($0.07) buy you? A defense against misfortune sounds like a bargain. That’s the price you’ll pay for a packet of scrap meat to throw to predatory birds in Lahore. The practice is an age-old tradition that has survived despite intensifying efforts by the authorities to stamp it out. Wildlife experts say it encourages overpopulation and aggression in the bird populations, but a local rickshaw driver tells Reuters he does it anyway to “keep his life safe.”
0.6: New data from Russia this week will show consumer prices rose just 0.6% in February. Annual inflation is likely even lower than the last reading of 7.5%. That’s not stellar, no, but for a sanctions-wracked economy where inflation hit nearly 18% after invading Ukraine, it’s another sign the West hasn’t really crippled the Kremlin’s war machine. Vladimir Putin, for his part, is confident enough in the inflation numbers to uncork $126 billion in social spending ahead of his “election” this weekend.
7.3 trillion: Speaking of spending, US President Joe Bidenunveiled a $7.3 trillion budget proposal on Monday featuring massive new social spending financed by tax hikes on corporations and the mega-rich. Non-partisan analysts say the math is “unrealistic,” and it has zero chance of passing a GOP-run House anyway. But it’s not meant for Capitol Hill; it’s meant for the campaign trail, where Biden is trying to convince American voters that “Bidenomics” is a win. Polls show skepticism, despite improving economic data.
900 million: Social media apps owned by “China,” Mark Zuckerberg, or Elon Musk may get all the attention these days, but the messaging app Telegram has quietly hit 900 million regular users (nearly 3X that of X) and is mulling an IPO. The freewheeling Dubai-based platform, created by Russian-born entrepreneur Pavel Durov, has emerged as a major free speech hub, particularly in Russia, but it has also drawn criticism for allegedly allowing criminal activity and “misinformation.”
Portugal’s election over the weekend had two winners.
The mathematical winner: the center-right Democratic Alliance, which took 79 seats in the 230-seat Parliament, eking out a narrow victory over the left-leaning incumbents of the Socialist Party, with 77.
The zeitgeist winner: the far-right Chega party, which quadrupled its seats to 48. Chega, which means “Enough!” is fiercely anti-immigration and has adopted the “God, Country, Family, and Work” slogan of Portugal’s former dictatorship.
The trouble is that those two winners can’t work together. DA leader Luis Montenegro has ruled out a coalition with Chega which, despite its strong performance, carries the stigma of the country’s fascist past.
That leaves Portugal in its most fragmented and uncertain political state since the end of the dictatorship.
But this isn’t the first time in recent months that a European far-right party has found itself unable to use its kingmaker’s powers. Precisely the same thing happened in the Netherlands, where Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV party was popular enough to sing at the polls, but too toxic to enter government.
As the EU heads towards European Parliamentary elections, bear this in mind – the recent “resurgence of the right” in Europe is more nuanced than it looks.