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Climate
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is received by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the State Guest House.
3: Germany has arrested three German nationals suspected of spying for China. They’re accused of passing along sensitive military intelligence to the Ministry of State Security, China’s powerful spy agency. The timing is awkward, given that Berlin is trying to reset trade relations with Beijing.
2.3: If you’ve had a summer vacation in Europe recently, you may have felt like it was unbearably hot – that’s no coincidence. Europe is the fastest-warming continent on the planet, according to a new report from two leading climate-monitoring organizations. Temperatures there are now 2.3° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, per the latest five-year averages, compared to 1.3° Celsius globally. But Europe’s not alone: The entire planet’s surface temperature is rising.
7 billion: President Joe Biden celebrated Earth Day on Monday by announcing $7 billion in federal grants for solar power projects in residential areas that will power over 900,000 households in low-income and disadvantaged communities and help save $8 billion in energy costs, according to EPA estimates. Biden is promoting his environmental policy as he vies to woo young voters – a crucial voting bloc – at a time when many in this demographic express concern over the economy and outrage over his approach to the war in Gaza.
110,000: Flooding in China’s Guangdong province caused by heavy rains has seen 110,000 people evacuated from their homes. The extreme weather led over a million people in the province to lose power over the weekend. Flooding from relentless rain has also devastated East Africa, affecting over 200,000 in Burundi, one of the world’s poorest countries.
The moon blotted out the sun across much of North America on Monday, but it did not put politics entirely out of mind.
Conservatives on both sides of the border used the occasion to compare their champion to the moon, blotting out the incumbent sun, while incumbents merely marveled at the moment.
In the United States, Donald Trump released an odd ad on his Truth Social network in which his face blotted out the sun. In Canada, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre just posted a photo of the moment, but one of his MPs posted an image showing a smiling Poilievre eclipsing Trudeau.
Meanwhile, Fox News issued a warning that the eclipse might make it easier for migrants to cross into the United States.
Justin Trudeau posted a video of himself taking in the sight from the roof of his office while Joe Biden posted a safety warning, a subtle reminder, perhaps, of the time, in 2017, when Trump gazed directly into an eclipse, which is said to be unwise.Smoke rises after what the Iranian media said was an Israeli strike on a building close to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria April 1, 2024.
½: About half of Johannesburg’s 5.5 million residents have suffered water shortages, or even full outages, over the past several weeks. This is a major political problem for the African National Congress, which has led South Africa’s government since the end of apartheid in 1994 and now faces a national election next month.
6: Chinese manufacturing activity grew in March for the first time in six months. News of a possible economic upturn will be welcomed by many around the world because China’s weakness has been a major drag on global economic expectations in recent months.
11: A nonprofit information watchdog says the British Museum should return 11 sacred Ethiopian altar tablets looted by British soldiers following the Battle of Maqdala in 1868. Over more than 150 years in the museum’s collection, the wood and stone tablets have never been displayed publicly, and internal debates over their future have remained secret. For more on the debate about “Who Owns Art?”, see our recent GZERO Reports piece, which begins with an Egyptian obelisk in a snowstorm.
A farmer opens a cocoa pod at a cocoa farm in Azaguie, Ivory Coast, October 22, 2019. Picture taken October 22, 2019.
The Easter Bunny is sweating over his chocolate bill this year thanks to rising prices. A ton of cocoa runs you a cool $10,000 today, double what it cost a month ago and triple what it cost this time last year. Still, the West African farmers who grow the world’s favorite treat have yet to see a windfall.
The culprit? Three straight years of bad harvests have led one manufacturer to estimate the supply of cocoa will fall some 500,000 tons short of demand in 2024. That’s about a 10% deficit – and part of the reason cocoa is growing in value faster than bitcoin.
Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana grow more than half of the world’s cocoa, mostly on small family farms. A combination of changing weather patterns and a growing problem with diseases are yielding fewer and fewer beans from each tree.
Farmers usually don’t benefit from higher prices on commodity exchanges in New York and London, since the governments in Accra and Yamoussoukro set fixed prices ahead of each growing season. This year, that was roughly $1,600 a ton. The practice has long left farmers underpaid and leads to underinvestment in their farms, which compounds dwindling productivity.
Long term, analysts say chocolate prices for consumers could double. With no easy way to boost production, this means the Easter Bunny may face an even bigger hop into next year’s baskets.Hydraulic excavators scoop the broken rock into 100- or 150-tonne haul trucks at Agnico-Eagle's Meadowbank mine in Nunavut June 28, 2011.
The traditional 25th-anniversary gift is silver, but how about mines full of precious minerals? The vast northern Canadian territory of Nunavut turns 25 on Monday, and for its birthday it’ll also start having more control over decisions about its lands, waters, and reserves of gold, diamonds, iron, cobalt, and rare earth metals.
Background: Nunavut, which makes up about a fifth of Canada’s land mass, was created in 1999 from the eastern part of the Northwest Territories. The split was driven by the Inuit nation’s desire for a culturally grounded government closer to the people and lands it administers.
A January 2024 land transfer agreement gives Nunavut a say over many functions previously managed in Ottawa, putting it on the path to equal footing with the rest of Canada. As the territory’s Premier P.J. Akeeagok says, now “we'll decide our own future.”
The transfer of power from the federal to territorial governments will happen over the next three years.
If geopolitics are on your radar, Nunavut should be too. Nunavut yields minerals that are essential for battery production, which will be a source of increasing global leverage during the energy transition.
The draw of Nunavut’s (literal) goldmine of resources has already caused geopolitical tension. In 2020, Canada blocked a CA$230 million Chinese takeover of a Nunavut gold mine on national security grounds. That dealt an economic blow to the North, but sizzling US-China-Canada tensions surrounding the arrest on a US warrant of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou and the subsequent imprisonment of two Canadians in China likely helped kill the deal. Plus, China’s assertion that it’s already an “important stakeholder in Arctic affairs” with a right to a greater role in the region — even though it is nearly 2,000 miles south of the Arctic Circle — is ringing national security alarm bells.
While the territorial government’s new autonomy over its resources won’t override the federal government’s national security concerns, we’ll be watching as Nunavut balances local economic interests with geopolitical dynamics.
For a more lighthearted geopolitical ‘dispute’ involving Nunavut, check out the 50-year Canada-Denmark “Whiskey War.”
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre is optimistic about his country’s progress in the global energy transition, particularly regarding the pivot from reliance on fossil fuels to a broader adoption of renewable energy sources. And given Norway’s increased importance in supplying Europe with energy, the transition could not come a moment too soon. “I think the energy transition is happening... For the first time you have written down in text all agreeing that there will be a transition out of fossil fuels,” Støre tells Ian in a wide-ranging interview for GZERO World on the sidelines of the Munich Security conference. Støre extolls the significant strides being made despite the prevailing geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges.
Støre points out the collaborative spirit of the international community, which he witnessed at COP 28. The Prime Minister emphasizes the importance of market incentives, technological innovation, and political will in driving these changes. “You cannot make it unless you make the market economy be at the service of the transition." Støre and Ian also touch on the need for a loss and damages fund to support the countries most affected by climate change, underscoring the ongoing efforts to provide financial mechanisms for environmental preservation and sustainable development.
Watch full episode: Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Europe's energy security hinges on Norway and its transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. That has big geopolitical implications for Ukraine and NATO.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer delves into Europe's urgent quest for energy independence and the broader geopolitical shifts that could redefine the continent's future. With the specter of reduced US support for Ukraine after November’s election, Europe's resilience, particularly in energy security and military capabilities, takes center stage. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre joins Ian to discuss Norway's critical role in this transition, emphasizing the need for a swift move from oil and gas to renewables, a monumental task that Europe and Norway are determined to undertake in a remarkably short timeframe. “Norway will transition out of oil and gas. When we pass 2030, there will be declining production, and then we want to see renewables transition upwards,” Prime Minister Jonas Støre tells Ian.
Their conversation delves into the ramifications of the US election outcome on NATO and Ukraine, underscoring Europe's precarious position should American support wane. The discussion reveals the continent's vulnerability to fuel crises and the imperative for a robust energy strategy that lessens dependency on external forces, notably by severing ties with Russian fossil fuels in response to the invasion of Ukraine. “Europe's ability to assist Kyiv on the battlefield will hinge not just on military capabilities but also Europe's own energy security,” Ian explains.
This is a moment of transformation for Europe as it navigates the complexities of energy transition and geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the interconnectedness of sustainability, security, and solidarity in facing the challenges of the 21st century.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
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