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Climate
Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre is optimistic about his country’s progress in the global energy transition, particularly regarding the pivot from reliance on fossil fuels to a broader adoption of renewable energy sources. And given Norway’s increased importance in supplying Europe with energy, the transition could not come a moment too soon. “I think the energy transition is happening... For the first time you have written down in text all agreeing that there will be a transition out of fossil fuels,” Støre tells Ian in a wide-ranging interview for GZERO World on the sidelines of the Munich Security conference. Støre extolls the significant strides being made despite the prevailing geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges.
Støre points out the collaborative spirit of the international community, which he witnessed at COP 28. The Prime Minister emphasizes the importance of market incentives, technological innovation, and political will in driving these changes. “You cannot make it unless you make the market economy be at the service of the transition." Støre and Ian also touch on the need for a loss and damages fund to support the countries most affected by climate change, underscoring the ongoing efforts to provide financial mechanisms for environmental preservation and sustainable development.
Watch full episode: Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
Europe's energy security hinges on Norway and its transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. That has big geopolitical implications for Ukraine and NATO.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer delves into Europe's urgent quest for energy independence and the broader geopolitical shifts that could redefine the continent's future. With the specter of reduced US support for Ukraine after November’s election, Europe's resilience, particularly in energy security and military capabilities, takes center stage. Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre joins Ian to discuss Norway's critical role in this transition, emphasizing the need for a swift move from oil and gas to renewables, a monumental task that Europe and Norway are determined to undertake in a remarkably short timeframe. “Norway will transition out of oil and gas. When we pass 2030, there will be declining production, and then we want to see renewables transition upwards,” Prime Minister Jonas Støre tells Ian.
Their conversation delves into the ramifications of the US election outcome on NATO and Ukraine, underscoring Europe's precarious position should American support wane. The discussion reveals the continent's vulnerability to fuel crises and the imperative for a robust energy strategy that lessens dependency on external forces, notably by severing ties with Russian fossil fuels in response to the invasion of Ukraine. “Europe's ability to assist Kyiv on the battlefield will hinge not just on military capabilities but also Europe's own energy security,” Ian explains.
This is a moment of transformation for Europe as it navigates the complexities of energy transition and geopolitical uncertainties, highlighting the interconnectedness of sustainability, security, and solidarity in facing the challenges of the 21st century.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Northern exposure ›
- Will Norway pull the plug on itself? ›
- Can the world run on green energy yet? Author Bjorn Lomborg argues that's very far off ›
- The Graphic Truth: Natural gas prices make EU power costs soar ›
- Norway's school phone ban aims to reclaim "stolen focus", says PM Jonas Støre ›
- With electric bills soaring, should the EU cap natural gas prices? ›
- The Graphic Truth: EU natural gas prices plunge ›
Last year marked the worst wildfire season ever recorded in Canada as 18.5 million hectares of land burned — shattering the previous record of 10 million hectares in 1989. Those fires accounted for 23% of global wildfire carbon emissions in 2023. They also sent toxic smoke throughout the country and into the US, putting the health and safety of Americans at risk.
At one point, New York City had the worst air quality in the world as Americans were exposed to more smoke per person than ever before. The smoke, which reached as far as Florida, also put US crops at risk.
This year might be as bad — or worse — which means that domestic and cross-border policies for fighting fires will be more important than ever.
An early start to the wildfire season. Last week, Alberta declared an early start to the wildfire season. Dry conditions and warm weather brought about the premature arrival – roughly ten days ahead of the typical season. This comes as the province faces water shortages and prepares for a severe drought atop predictions of a dangerous fire season for the province.
Meanwhile, zombie fires continue to burn both there and in British Columbia — more than 150 of them never went out last year and managed to stay alight throughout the winter. Experts say the scale of the problem is unprecedented.
South of the border, Nebraska Gov. Jim Pillendeclared a state disaster on Monday as wildfires threatened residents near North Platte, mobilizing the National Guard to fight the blazes. Compared to Canada, the US wildfire season in 2023 was modest, but experts warned the calm could be atypical.
The year is barely underway and the US has already witnessed a record-setting fire. Texas on Thursday was battling the second-largest wildfire in US history and the largest, most destructive fire in the state’s history. The deadly, vast blaze, which began on Monday, has since spread across over one million acres.
Worse years to come. Climate change is exacerbating wildfires as the same hot, dry conditions that have started the season early in Alberta make them more likely to start and harder to fight year after year. The coming seasons will approach or break records, with the US set to face the effects from both domestic wildfires and Canadian counterparts. In 2023, summer warnings pointed to a heavy year for both countries as “unprecedented” fires raged and spewed smoke across the border.
In January, observers were already worrying about the 2024 fire season in Canada, citing a combination of climate change and the El Niño effect, which will produce conditions favorable for wildfires. Last year was the hottest on record for the world, and as routinely warmer years are set to be the norm experts are calling for proactive, cooperative policy responses across borders.
Cross-border cooperation remains resilient. For years, Canada and the US have managed to cooperate on shared concerns — even during times of political challenges.
“Regardless of the politics, cross-border cooperation between provinces and states, and between agencies and departments of both federal governments, is good and seamless regardless of the political leaders in power," says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice.
The cooperation, Thompson says, is thanks to a “seamless and well-rehearsed order of operations.” The two countries even managed to keep that cooperation up and running during the Trump years, which were, to say the least, fraught.
Recently, the need for cross-border efforts to manage disasters has grown. As the fires raged and smoke blanked much of the continent last summer, Natural Resources Canada and the US Departments of the Interior and Agriculture signed a memo of understanding committing them to enhanced cooperation in fighting wildfires. They pledged to focus on building out a framework for mutual assistance, cooperation, and procedures for resource sharing. That work is ongoing.
A few weeks earlier, in an interview with the CBC, Canada’s then-minister of public safety and emergency preparedness Bill Blair said he’d spoken with the head of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) about better cooperation between the two countries, including the potential for “a NORAD-like approach,” noting that emergencies including floods, earthquakes, and wildfires were “borderless.”
At the same time, Canada — which doesn’t have a central, national disaster management agency — was also considering creating its own version of FEMA. Since then, discussion of those options has fallen off the radar (sure to return before long), but the US and Canada are nonetheless prepared to cooperate across the border to fight fires in 2024, guided by the Arrangement on Mutual Assistance in Fighting Forest Fires.
Gordon Sachs of the US Forest Service says the arrangement is “fully in place” and “has no end date.” The origins of the deal, which allows the US and Canada to share expertise and operations capacities to fight fires, stretches back to 1982. Sachs points out that since the 1980s, Canada and the US have provided fire fighting resources to one another in 37 of 40 years.
The newly-enhanced arrangement will take things further. Sachs says the 2023 renewal “goes beyond fire suppression to include training, research, and post-fire activities such as rehabilitation and restoration of burned areas.”
Whatever the 2024 fire season brings, US-Canadian cooperation on disasters, including wildfires, will likely increase in years to come. Climate change is already exacerbating natural disasters and their effects, many of which, as Blair noted, are borderless. Changes in the US administration in 2024 could prove a challenge at the worst possible time, but if past is prologue, there’s reason to believe cross-border cooperation on disaster responses will remain reliable.
The artificial intelligence boom has brought new strains on the environment, namely through demands on electricity and water. The International Energy Agency estimates that, by 2026, the rise of AI and cryptocurrency will lead to an increase in electricity used by global data centers—a figure that could range anywhere between a 35% and 128% increase.
But data centers run hot and use copious amounts of water to keep cool. According to a new preprint academic paper, global AI demand may account for 4.2-6.6 billion cubic meters of annual water withdrawal by 2027—that’s about half of the UK’s annual usage, according to the Financial Times.
Major technology companies are using more and more water just training their increasingly powerful generative AI models: Google and Microsoft self-reported annual water consumption increases of 20% and 34% respectively while training their models.
If AI continues on its current, staggering trajectory, it very well may push us closer to an energy crisis that’s impossible to ignore.
It’s already begun … The Alberta government on Tuesday declared an early start to the 2024 wildfire season as firefighters there prepare for a hot, dry year ahead. Across Canada, authorities are bracing for a difficult year of fires after a record-setting year in 2023, which sent smoke plumes to population centers across the continent.
A warming climate is making forests drier and more susceptible to big, dangerous fires. More than 100 “zombie fires” (dormant in winter) are still smoldering in Western Canada, where they pose a threat when the weather warms up again.
“It's not something I've seen in any of the data sets,” Wilfrid Laurier University biology professor Jennifer Baltzer told CBC. “What we don't know is how many of these will actually translate to reignition in the spring.”
The continental United States was largely spared last year, and so far the projections look good for 2024 but worrying for the long term.22: A new report from the UN warns that over a fifth (22%) of the world’s migratory species are at risk of extinction due to climate change and human encroachment. The report, which focuses on 1,189 kinds of animals, emphasized that 44% have already declined in number.
7: An appeals court in the Netherlands on Monday ruled the government must halt shipments of F-35 jet components to Israel within seven days, citing concerns that they could be used to commit war crimes in Gaza. The Netherlands is home to a large warehouse of F-35 parts that are exported to countries that operate the US-made jet. The Dutch government said it will comply with the ruling but that it has appealed because these exports are a matter of foreign policy, which is up to the state.
7,000,000:Robert Kennedy Jr., who is running for US president in 2024 as an independent, on Monday apologized to family members for a campaign ad that ran during the Super Bowl. The commercial drew from a 1960 campaign ad for Kennedy’s assassinated uncle, President John F. Kennedy, and cost an estimated $7 million. Kennedy tweeted the ad was created by a Super Pac without his involvement or approval — but the 30-second commercial was simultaneously pinned to his profile on Monday.
1: At least one person was killed and dozens more injured by an explosion at a children’s Youth Day celebration in Cameroon on Sunday, as the Central African country continues to contend with separatist violence in its English-speaking regions. The unrest is linked to longtime Anglophone grievances alleging discrimination by the Francophone majority.
Critics of the Biden administration have had a field day with its decision to pause the expansion of America’s liquified natural gas exports, while it looks at the effect of exports on the environment, energy security, and energy costs.
Commentator David Bahnsen, managing director of the Bahnsen Group, told Fox Business the move will help one person: Vladimir Putin. He said more LNG exports would undermine Putin while pausing new approvals is a “foreign policy own-goal” that will drive prices higher.
The move has some policy analysts scratching their heads since Biden has hailed the delivery of US LNG to Europe and Asia as a geopolitical victory.
Conversely, the move is being hailed in Canada, where Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said he is “really happy” that the US Administration is looking to reduce the carbon intensity of LNG. Judging by his comments, it doesn’t sound like Canada will follow suit. “My hope is that what we will see coming from this are policies that actually look a lot like what we’ve already done,” he said.
The Canadian environmental approval process for projects has been notoriously prolonged over the past eight years, but there are now two projects under construction. One – the Shell-led LNG Canada’s facility in Kitimat, British Columbia – is 90% built and has all the approvals it needs to start exporting next year. There are others in the pipeline, including the Ksi Lisim floating facility, north of Prince Rupert, B.C., which is partly Indigenous-owned through the Nisga’a Nation.
Biden’s move has pleased environmental groups but upset proponents of an industry that has gone from one billion cubic feet of production a day to 14bcf at seven LNG terminals in less than a decade.