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DeSantis' 2024 strategy: dominate the internet

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

Is Ron DeSantis too online?

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced his 2024 presidential bid this week on a Twitter Spaces event hosted by its terminally online CEO Elon Musk. Amid dropping poll numbers and headline after headline criticizing his unfriendly nature, DeSantis’s decision to launch his campaign on Twitter raises an important question: is the Florida Governor too online?

Twitter has been an important hub for conservatives for years and has become more so since Musk bought the platform and became its CEO. DeSantis’s decision to launch his presidential campaign on Twitter instead of somewhere that caters to a more traditional media audience reflects the platform’s importance for conservatives and, perhaps more importantly, allows DeSantis to bypass the media and have more control over his announcement.

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F-16s for Ukraine redefine red line for Putin (again)

Will Biden's reversal to allow F-16s to Ukraine be a game-changer? What is holding up a debt ceiling deal? Will the EU's lawsuit against Meta lead to a data-sharing agreement with the United States? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Will Biden's reversal to allow F-16s to Ukraine be a game-changer?

Well, Putin says it is. Says that that would absolutely be a line that would be crossed and be irreversible. Of course, he said that about a bunch of things, and his credibility in a response to NATO providing defense to Ukraine has been significantly eroding over the last year. Of course, we also see not just F-16s, but we see Ukrainian armored troop carriers suddenly five miles deep in Russian territory, in Belgorod. The Ukrainians say it wasn't them, but they're very happy to embarrass Putin over that. Look, a lot of things that would've been seen as red lines six months ago now are not. Of course, that's good for the Ukrainians, but it also does mean that the tail risk dangers of this conflict are also going up.

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Debt ceiling deal: long way to go in little time

Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

Will President Biden get a budget deal with Republican lawmakers?

In what's become an almost annual exercise, the US needs to increase its debt limit once again. With over $31 trillion on the national debt, Congress has to authorize the ability for treasury to borrow any more, and the new Republican majority in the House sees this as an opportunity to try to force President Biden into achieving some long-term budget cuts. The house passed a bill last month that would cut spending by about $4 trillion over the next 10 years. President Biden has proposed a budget that would reduce the deficit by over $3 trillion over the next 10 years through a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. The Republicans have no interest whatsoever in those tax increases, however, so what they're negotiating towards is a package of spending cuts over 10 years that would probably cut budget deficits by somewhere between $1-2 trillion. However, President Biden up until about a week ago said that he was not open to negotiating on the debt limit, and instead wanted to keep the discussions focused around the government's annual appropriations process, which is supposed to take place around September 30th. With the debt limit deadline coming up on or around June 1st, the US could potentially default if lawmakers have not achieved a deal well in advance of that deadline, which we're about two weeks away from right now. Negotiations are just starting to heat up between Speaker Kevin McCarthy's staff and the White House staff. President Biden has canceled part of his trip to Asia in order to come back to the United States to finish these negotiations. And this very well could come down to the wire, which is making markets very nervous about the fact that the US may not be able to make payments to certain people starting sometime in early June.

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Expect another Erdogan presidency for Turkey

Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Stockholm, Sweden.

How was the outcome of the Turkish election?

Well, we haven't seen the end of it, but the first round, which was not decisive concerning the presidency. Erdogan just short of 50%, but his coalition did capture the majority in parliament and that will be decisive advantage when it goes to the second round for the presidency on May 28th. Erdogan managed to mobilize the nationalists more conservative, more sort of proud Turkish, somewhat more rural Turks against the more modern, Western, younger. We'll see. But in all likelihood, May 28th for Erdogan.

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Ukrainian offensive tests Russian defenses

How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going? Pro-democracy opposition parties swept the Thai elections. Will they be allowed to govern? Is Assad's invitation to COP28 a sign of Syria's return to the global stage? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

How is the Ukrainian counteroffensive going?

Well, it's just started. It's a little premature to ask me that question. Right now you're looking at probing attacks, artillery for the Ukrainians to try to assess where Russian defenses might be weakest so that when Zelensky gives the order for the full counteroffensive, it's starting, but not with masses of troops, that it's most likely to succeed. There is general optimism right now. The Russians are dug in along three lines of defense in southeast Ukraine. There's pretty significant optimism the Ukrainians will be able to break through one, at least maybe two of those lines of defense, which puts them in striking distance of artillery of the coast of the Sea of Azov, which means being able to threaten the land bridge to Crimea. That's a pretty big deal. It improves Ukraine's ability to negotiate if that happens after the counteroffensive is over.

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Trump sexual abuse verdict won't hurt him with GOP

Trump was found liable in lawsuit by E. Jean Carroll. Does this hurt his 2024 presidential aspirations? After his Victory Day speech falsely comparing his invasion of Ukraine to the defeat of Nazi Germany, is Putin losing domestic support? How might Imran Khan's arrest affect stability in Pakistan? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Number one, Trump was found liable in lawsuit by E. Jean Carroll. Does this hurt his 2024 presidential aspirations?

Found liable for sexual abuse and for defamation, not for rape. A civil case, $5 million he's going to have to pay. That is a horrible, horrible state of affairs for the former president of the United States. It's a stain on the country and it should matter, but it won't. It will be seen by his supporters as yet one more witch hunt, and his immediate response was, "I don't even know the woman," which is obviously untrue, but is a feature of his presidency and of his candidacy. Keep in mind, the people that are voting for him for the nomination are largely people that very strongly support him and very strongly oppose Biden. I suspect that if anything, this is going to have a negligible to slightly positive impact on the way he's likely to perform in the Republican primaries, and that is an insane thing to say.

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Episodes

Kremlin drone attack a huge embarrassment for Putin

What's the importance of the upcoming elections in Turkey on May the 14th? What happened with the drone attack on the Kremlin? Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics (this week from Arizona.)

US debt limit: default unlikely, dysfunction probable

Is the United States at real risk of default over the debt limit? The "godfather of AI "says we may be approaching a "nightmare scenario." What should we do about it? As the coronation of King Charles approaches, what's the state of the United Kingdom? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

2024 elections: Another likely Biden v Trump extravaganza

What's the outlook for President Biden's reelection campaign? Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics.

The US needs younger presidential candidates

How will China's stance on ex-Soviet countries impact the war in Ukraine? With the US and others evacuating diplomats, will the West take action to end the violence in Sudan? Finally, should there be a maximum age limit for elected US officials? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Hosts

Jon Lieber on US Politics In 60 Seconds
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group’s Managing Director for the US
Break down the US political landscape with Jon Lieber
Ian Bremmer on World In 60 Seconds
Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President
Tackle the world’s biggest headlines with Ian Bremmer
Carl Bildt on Europe In 60 Seconds
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden
Carl Bildt provides his perspective from Europe