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Middle East
The Liberian-flagged tanker Ice Energy, chartered by the US government, takes Iranian oil from Iranian-flagged Lana (formerly Pegas) as part of a civil forfeiture action off the shore of Karystos, on the Island of Evia, Greece, in May 2022.
The potential impact? Washington previously ordered two such operations in 2023, under the Biden administration, but this prompted Iran to seize foreign ships, including one chartered by Chevron Corp, which increased crude prices. Today, however, prices are under $75 a barrel, so trimming Iran’s exports, possibly by 750,000 barrels per day, would have less of an effect. Cutting Iranian production would allow for increased production from Iraq, and potentially from Russia, which also sells to the Chinese market. Iran reaps annual oil revenues of $50 billion, mostly from sales to China.
Why do it, and will it work? Trump sees the plan as a means of exerting “maximum pressure” against Tehran to damage its nuclear program. The strategy depends, however, on allied nations chipping in to inspect the vessels. There are currently 115 signatories to the Initiative, most of whom are also facing the specter of US tariffs on April 2. We’ll be watching which ones the US approaches for cooperation – and whether Trump will be willing to give concessions in return.
Donald Trump issues a proclamation from the Oval Office
“Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you,” the US president wrote as part of what he called a “last warning.” The language of his post was direct, even by Trump standards: “I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say,” he wrote. “Also, to the People of Gaza: A beautiful Future awaits, but not if you hold Hostages. If you do, you are DEAD!”
Hamas hasaccused Trump of encouraging Israel to end the ceasefire and resume the war. The Israeli government says there are 59 hostages remaining in Gaza, and as many as two dozen are believed to be alive. Israel has released hundreds of Palestinians from its custody.
Egypt held a summit in Cairo on Tuesday, bringing together Arab states to forge a path forward for Gaza. The host proposed a $53 billion, five-year plan to rebuild the Palestinian enclave, which has been largely destroyed during the 15-month war between Israel and Hamas. The idea was to rally Arab League countries to fund and support the plan as a counterweight to US President Donald Trump’s proposal to turn Gaza into a Mediterranean “Riviera” and forcibly displace Palestinians from the region.
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi said the new plan was endorsed by Arab League leaders on Tuesday. Attendees are meant to reconvene for further discussion in Egypt next month.
What’s in Egypt’s plan? It calls for keeping Palestinians in Gaza and for an independent Palestinian body — not Hamas — to oversee Gaza during the reconstruction. In the end, there would be housing for 3 million people, as well as an airport, industrial centers, hotels, and other major developments.
But none of this can happen without a sustained ceasefire and a permanent end to conflict in Gaza. Meanwhile, talks about the second phase of the ceasefire have been halted amid disagreements – Israel now wants more hostages released to initiate the next stage of the three-phase ceasefire and is demanding Hamas’s disarmament (a red line for the militant group). The first stage expired Saturday without a clear path forward. In the meantime, Israel has stopped the flow of aid into Gaza, and while the enclave has supplies for now, the stoppage raises concerns about dwindling stockpiles in the weeks ahead.The White House responded to Egypt’s Gaza proposal late Tuesday, saying it did not address the fact that the enclave is uninhabitable and noting that Trump stands by his proposal.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Trump's relationship with Putin isolate or concern China?
I wouldn't say so. I think that Putin and Xi Jinping have one of the stronger relationships on the global stage today. I think they've met something like 81 times bilaterally since the two have been in power. They're both leaders for life, they run dictatorships, and they support each other all the time at the United Nations. There's a lot of technology and trade, and China needs to buy Russian energy. The Americans certainly don't. So, for lots of reasons, this relationship is much more stable and strong than anything that Trump is likely to build with Putin. Especially because Trump is a one more term president, 78 years old, with checks and balances in the US, even if they're getting weaker, they exist. That's not true in Russia. It's not true in China. So, I don't think Beijing is very worried about that.
What does the resignation of Iran's Vice President Zarif signal about tensions in the country?
Well, given the fact that the finance minister was also just impeached this weekend, also a would-be reformist, a moderate, in the context of the Iranian political spectrum, it means the supreme leader and the conservatives do not trust these guys to engage with the Americans or the West. It's a harder line Iranian policy as they move towards greater levels of stockpiling, of enriched uranium, and as their military strategy has fallen apart for the region. If anyone is going to talk to the Americans, and if anyone is going to try to forestall attacks from Israel, and maybe by the US as well, it's not going to be the people that got the original Iranian nuclear deal done, the JCPOA. So, that's what it looks like in reform. Nascent under a lot of trouble. The Iranian president under a lot of pressure right now at home.
What's next for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire as the first phase comes to an end?
Well, I think what everyone is waiting for is the Egypt deal, which is being penned and is being sent over in advance of an Arab League summit to Trump in the coming hours, if not day. Originally, it was a few hundred pages long. The Saudis told the Egyptians, "Maybe you want to have an executive summary that's a little glossier for Trump? He's not reading a couple hundred pages." That's been worked on all weekend. And it certainly isn't the Americans owning Gaza. It certainly isn't the Palestinians being forced out or all voluntarily leaving. Whether or not Trump is prepared to sign off on that, or at least allow it to go forward and not veto it, as long as it hits that hurdle, I think you'll have pretty much all of the Arab states signing off on it in the Arab summit. That's where we are right now, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Iran's outgoing VP Mohammad Javad Zarif speaks during a news conference in Tehran back in 2019.
A prominent reformist, Zarif previously served as foreign minister and was instrumental in negotiating Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with the United States, which earned him threats of bodily harm at the time from hardliners. Since taking office, he was reportedly targeted because his American-born children hold US passports, which hardliners claim disqualifies Zarif from holding public office under Iranian law. In his resignation letter, Zarif said he had “faced the most horrible insults, slander, and threats against myself and my family,” and that it was recommended that he “return to the university.”
How will this impact Pezeshkian, who entered office promising to improve the economy and pursue sanctions relief through improved engagement with the West? According to Eurasia analyst Greg Brew, these departures are signs that Pezeshkian is failing in both respects. “Pezeshkian himself admitted that though he wants to negotiate, the leader’s stance makes it impossible to do so. In other words, he’s admitting publicly that he can’t pursue any policy that goes against Khamenei.”
Ultimately this means he has limited power, Brew explains. “Pezeshkian exercises power fitfully, and without support from the leader he’s essentially a lame duck.”
Syrian Kurds gather with flags as Turkey's jailed militant leader Abdullah Ocalan calls on his Kurdistan Workers Party to lay down its arms last week in Hasakah, Syria.
So why stop fighting? Perhaps, freedom. Last October, staunch Turkish nationalist Devlet Bahceliinvited Ocalan to come to parliament and “declare that he has laid down his arms” – and intimated that his life sentence could be lifted. This weekend, Bahceli, whose party is the largest partner in Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s coalition,welcomed Ocalan’s call for disbanding the PKK, calling it a “valuable and important” statement.
The move also comes as Erdogan seeks support for constitutional changes that would allow him to run for a third term in 2028, and the backing of the pro-Kurdish DEM party could be key. In the past two months, DEM Party representativeshave paid three visits to Ocalan, the first since members of the party’s predecessor, the Peoples’ Democratic Party, met with him in April 2015. Ocalan’s nephew, Omer Ocalan, a member of the Turkish Parliament, also visited and shared a message from his uncle on social media.
Will the ceasefire hold? It’s not clear, and a similar agreement in 2013 failed to endure. The deal must also first be accepted by Turkey and is complicated by the fact that the PKK is still classified as a terrorist organization by that country, the US, and the EU. We’re watching for Erdogan’s next move – and whether Ocalan’s liberation follows.
Israeli tanks are seen inside Gaza amid a ceasefire breakdown between Israel and Hamas on March 2, 2025.
Israeli Defense Forces blocked aid trucks from entering Gaza on Sunday, just one day after the first phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas expired, bringing negotiations over a permanent truce to a standstill. Arab states have condemned the Israeli move.
Context: Under the original ceasefire agreement, Israel and Hamas were supposed to enter the second phase of the deal on Saturday. This would have involved the release of the remaining 59 Israeli hostages by Hamas and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. This original concept has now been undermined as the Israelis are instead looking for alternative options for extending the first phase of the tenuous truce.
What’s next: By blocking aid from Gaza, Israel is seeking to build leverage. Rather than commencing its withdrawal in return for the remaining hostages, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahunow wants the militant group to release half of the captives before it negotiates a permanent ceasefire before April 20. Hamas has refused the extension and wants Egypt and Qatar to mediate.
Points of leverage: Israel is using the withholding of aid and the threat of further fighting to corner its adversary. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Saturday announced another $4 billion in military aid for Israel to help boost its security. As long as Hamas retains the 59 hostages, though, there will be pressure on Netanyahu to swiftly bring an end to the war — polls show an overwhelming majority of Israelis want the prime minister to maintain the ceasefire deal.