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Africa
Hard Numbers: Musk doles out millions, Turkey talks Typhoon jets, Kenya delays high-level impeachment, Boeing makes progress with strikers
FILE PHOTO: Tesla CEO and X owner Elon Musk, who supports Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump, gestures as he speaks about voting during an America PAC Town Hall in Folsom, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 17, 2024.
1 million: Elon Musk said Sunday that his political action committee supporting the Trump campaign, America PAC, will give $1 million to one registered voter in Pennsylvania every day until the election in a lottery among petition signers. The petition merely affirms support for the First and Second Amendments but also allows the PAC to gather voter data. Musk has donated $75 million to the PAC so far.
40: Despite strained ties, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan thanked German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his efforts to push through a sale of 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets when the two met on Saturday. He also expressed eagerness to increase trade with Berlin, which has the largest population of ethnic Turks in Europe, who make up an important expat voting bloc for Erdogan.
7: Kenya’s High Court on Friday suspended a resolution to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua for at least seven days, meaning he will remain in office until at least Oct. 24. Parliament had already approved Gachagua’s replacement, Kithure Kindiki, but the court said it needs time to decide whether the impeachment was lawful.
33,000: Troubled aircraft manufacturer Boeing reached a tentative deal that will send some 33,000 striking workers back to the assembly line after a five-week strike. The deal must be ratified by rank-and-file union members, who will vote Wednesday. They are looking at a 35% pay increase over four years but will not get their much-desired pension plan back after losing it in 2014.South African President Cyril Ramaphosa interacts with the leader of the opposition party, John Steenhuisen ahead of National Assembly members' questions in parliament in Cape Town, South Africa, November 3, 2022.
This unexpected alliance between South Africa’s long-ruling ANC and the Democratic Alliance has shown early signs of promise. One hundred days into the country’s Government of National Unity – made up of the erstwhile archrivals – voters are more positive about the country’s direction, and investors are bullish about its economic prospects. President Cyril Ramaphosa has even called the GNU South Africa’s “second miracle” – the first being the peaceful transition from apartheid to multiracial democracy in 1994.
Ramaphosa isn’t overplaying it: His African National Congress, once led by Nelson Mandela, campaigns on its history of Black liberation, while the Democratic Alliance is seen as the party of the white minority. Their odd marriage resulted from the ANC losing its parliamentary majority earlier this year – for the first time since 1994. Frustrating coalition talks in June prompted ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula to describe the parties as “oil and water.”
And yet, they’ve made progress. The rand has strengthened 6% against the dollar since July, and the stock market has rallied by 20%. Ramaphosa says South Africa aims to triple its GDP growth to 3% this year.
Saffers are noticing. A 58% majority think the GNU is doing well and – rather incredibly – 62% of Black voters approve of the DA’s job performance (fewer than 5% supported the DA in the election). Some 40% say their country is now on the right track, double the figure from June.
Too early to declare success. Still, the GNU’s ad-hoc style is likely to come up short when tackling the big issues, such as corruption, crime, decrepit infrastructure, and poor energy and water supplies. Daunting, but in the words of Mandela, “It always seems impossible until it’s done.”Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pays tribute to the 309 victims of the earthquake that struck, in L'Aquila, Italy, on 5 April 2009.
200 million: Kamala Harris went into conservative territory to appear on Fox News on Wednesday night. In a pre-taped, 30-minute interview with network host Bret Baier, the vice president was grilled on immigration and her history of supporting taxes used to fund gender-affirming care for federal prisoners and detained immigrants. The interview was contentious, with the two repeatedly talking over one another. Fox News, which reaches nearly 200 million people each month, was just the latest stop on Harris’ media blitz – and was likely an attempt to reach independents and moderate Republicans.
1.25: Surrogacy has been banned in Italy for 20 years, but Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’sconservative government has just gone a step further and criminalized seeking surrogacy abroad. Conservative lawmakers argued that they passed the law because they believe surrogacy is exploitative of women. Critics argued it would deprive gay or infertile couples of a way to have children and noted that the legislation targets a relatively small number of families in a country that already has a low birth rate.
100: A massive fuel tanker explosion in northern Nigeria killed 100 people and left 50 injured on Wednesday. The tanker exploded after veering to avoid colliding with a truck in the town of Maja. Fuel tanker explosions are common in Africa’s most populous nation, where roads can be poorly maintained. Complicating matters, residents often rush toward the tanker to siphon off fuel following accidents amid the country’s worst economic crisis in a generation.
10: Hong Kong has slashed its booze tax, one of the highest in the world, as the Chinese territory seeks to boost nightlife and revive its struggling economy. Until now, spirits with an alcoholic content of more than 30%, including brandy, whisky, and gin, had been subject to a 100% duty in Hong Kong. But the financial hub has been hit hard by China’s slowing economy and the fall in tourist numbers, leading the Beijing-backed government to slash the duty rate to 10%.
21: Former US President Jimmy Carter, who turned 100 this month, voted by mail on the first day of Georgia’s early voting on Tuesday. Although he did not reveal who he voted for, he told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in August that, even more than making it to his 100th birthday, he was “only trying to make it to vote for Kamala Harris.” At 19, Carter likely cast his first vote in the 1944 presidential election, as a part of the first cohort of voters made eligible to vote by Georgia lowering its voting age to 18, making this his 21st presidential election.
Hard Numbers: China launches Taiwan drills, Former Scottish leader dies, Sudanese military kills civilians, Ukraine raids bars for holdouts
125: China launched major military drills around Taiwan on Monday, including a single-day record of 125 aircraft, an aircraft carrier, and other naval assets, in response to Taiwanese President William Lai's National Day speech framing Taiwan as a separate country from China. In addition to the drills, Beijing is threatening to impose further economic sanctions on the island it considers a breakaway province.
69: Former Scottish First Minister Alex Salmonddied at age 69 on Saturday, shortly after giving a speech in North Macedonia. Salmond, who is believe to have succumbed to a massive heart attack, was a heavyweight in Edinburgh for three decades, having led the Scottish National Party to become a dominant force and pressed for independence after the reestablishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999.
23: At least 23 Sudanese civilians died this weekend after armed forces struck a market in the capital Khartoum, where it recently launched an offensive to dislodge the rebel Rapid Support Forces. More than 25 million people — half of Sudan’s population — are in severe need of food and medicine as the ongoing civil war has no end in sight.
25-60: Ukrainian authorities have reportedly begun raiding bars and concert venues looking for men aged 25-60 who have not complied with conscription laws. Ukraine is facing a severe manpower shortage and is intensifying efforts to find and induct able-bodied soldiers to hold the line against Russia’s superior manpower reserves.FILE PHOTO: The X account of Elon Musk in seen blocked on a mobile screen in this illustration after Brazil's telecommunications regulator suspended access to Elon Musk's X social network in the country to comply with an order from a judge who has been locked in a months-long feud with the billionaire investor, Sao Paulo, Brazil taken August 31, 2024.
5: X was officially reinstated in Brazil, ending a five week ban of the social media platform, which had failed to comply with court orders to remove accounts that were spreading disinformation. X owner Elon Musk had initially defied the orders and refused to pay related fines, styling himself as a defender of free speech. In the end, Musk and X caved as the ban had caused Brazil’s 40 million X users to start using other sites instead.
7: Mainland China’s benchmark stock index plummeted 7% on Tuesday, in the largest single day drop since February 2020, a time when COVID was first spreading rapidly in the country. Analysts suggested the drop, which snapped a 10-day streak of gains, reflected fading optimism that the Chinese government’s current stimulus policies will be enough to perk up a sluggish economy.
31: He is not dead. Repeat. Not dead. That’s the official word from the Cameroonian government about 91-year old president, Paul Biya, who has not been seen in public in 32 days. Biya, who has held power since 1982, was last spotted leaving a China-Africa summit in Beijing on Sept. 8. Since then, he has missed a number of high profile events, including the entire UN General Assembly in New York.
12.35: Hungary is known for the delicacy of its goulash, the harmonies of Franz Liszt, and the architectural beauties of Budapest. But olive oil? Too chilly right? Not any more. Hungarian farmers are increasingly planting olive trees as climate change shifts the temperate zones of Europe northward and inflicts more frequent droughts on traditional Mediterranean olive habitats like Spain. A mere tenth of a liter of the stuff from Hungary now fetches $12.35 in neighboring Slovenia.Supporters of Daniel Chapo, leader and presidential candidate of the ruling Frelimo party attend the final rally campaign ahead of the national election in Matola, Mozambique October 6, 2024.
The resource-rich southeast African nation of 35 million people heads into national legislative and presidential elections on Wednesday in which the party that has run the sub-Saharan country for half a century faces its stiffest challenge in years.
Who’s running? The incumbent FRELIMO party, a leftist former rebel group that has governed since independence from Portugal in 1975, is running party general secretary Daniel Chapo, a former provincial governor.
His main opponent is independent candidate Venancio Mondlane, a charismatic one-time banker who broke away from the main opposition party last year. Mondlane has capitalized on frustration with Frelimo’s half-century rule and drawn outsized support from young people.
In a first, both of the top candidates were born after – or just months before – independence.
What’s at stake? The key challenge is to raise living standards in a country where nearly two-thirds of the population lives in extreme poverty. A big part of that will be quashing a Jihadist insurgency that has halted a series of huge natural gas projects that could transform the country by opening export markets in South and East Asia.
Who is likely to win? Frelimo looks positioned to win, say experts, owing to its incumbency advantages and the possibility that opposition to Chapo will be split.
For more, see our Viewpoint on the election by Eurasia Group Africa expert Ziyanda Stuurmanhere.
Soldiers from the Rwandan security forces are seen near the Afungi natural gas site in Mozambique on Sept. 22, 2021.
Mozambicans will head to the polls on Wednesday, Oct. 9, amid improving prospects for ending an insurgency in the North of the country and completing several lucrative natural gas projects. Frelimo, which has ruled Mozambique for most of the period since it gained independence from Portugal in 1975, is expected to comfortably win the parliamentary and presidential elections.
We spoke with Eurasia Group expert Ziyanda Stuurman to learn what concerns are animating voters and how the next government will deal with the country’s challenges.
What are the main issues in these elections?
As in many other countries, the cost of living in Mozambique has really gone up in recent years. In the aftermath of the pandemic, inflation peaked in September 2022 and has eased since then, but prices and borrowing costs have remained high. Many people have struggled to get access to locally produced food, an issue that has been exacerbated by several cyclones and hurricanes. Moreover, the country was forced to seek assistance from the IMF in 2022 and agreed to a program that required it to slash its public wage bill, resulting in deep salary and benefit cuts for doctors, teachers, and other public employees.
How about the insurgency in the North – has that factored into the campaign?
I would say the worst of the insurgency in Cabo Delgado is probably behind us, after peaking between 2017 and 2019. With the assistance of foreign troops sent by several neighboring countries, the government has made strides in stabilizing the situation, and the candidates for president are now talking about what they would do to put an end to the insurgency. The region is the site of several large LNG projects that have the potential to turbocharge the Mozambican economy, but that were halted by their foreign operators when the fighting came too close in 2021. The average Mozambican wants to see the benefits from these projects, which have been talked about for their potential to catalyze growth for at least a decade.
Frelimo appears likely to hold on to power – how do you explain its enduring dominance?
Following a period of civil war from 1977 to 1992, Frelimo won the country’s first-ever democratic elections in 1994 in a fairly close contest with the opposition group Renamo. Since then, however, Renamo has splintered, and no new party has emerged capable of strongly challenging Frelimo. The ruling party has been able to acquire decades of governing experience that have conferred a strong incumbency advantage – an advantage that it has leaned into in undemocratic ways. It has been credibly accused, especially in more recent election cycles, of manipulating election results.
What will be the most important tasks for the next government?
Ending the insurgency and boosting the economy. Bringing long-lasting peace to Cabo Delgado is important not just for the resumption of the gas projects, but for the socio-economic development of what is probably the country’s poorest region. Daniel Chapo, Frelimo’s presidential candidate, has promised to enter peace talks with the remaining insurgents, who are thought to number 300 at most, down from a high of 2000 at the peak of the conflict. On the economic front, as the country waits for the new gas projects to come online, it will need to stimulate investment in the country’s main economic sectors – agriculture, mining, and light manufacturing.
So, who are these insurgents, and why have they been so difficult to root out?
It’s kind of a mixed bag. Some of them are former leaders and members of separatist movements in Tanzania, some are connected with the Islamist group Al-Shabab that was active in Somalia, and the majority are disaffected locals who feel excluded from public services and economic development. They have financed their operations with illicit activities such as kidnappings for ransom, particularly in the south of the country and the capital Maputo. They’ve been difficult to root out because the terrain in Cabo Delgado and its neighboring provinces is heavily forested and difficult to penetrate for the government forces, who lacked the necessary capacity to effectively fight in these conditions. In mid-2021, a group of neighboring countries, including South Africa and Rwanda, dispatched several thousand troops to support the Mozambican forces. The foreign mission has been scaled back this year but many of the troops remain.
What is the status now of the LNG projects in Cabo Delgado and what is their importance for the country’s development?
The two biggest projects are run by Total and Exxon, and Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné has been quite vocal recently about the company’s commitment to its Cabo Delgado venture. He is planning to visit Mozambique at the end of the month to meet with the next president, so it really sounds like Total is on the cusp of announcing a resumption of construction, probably by early 2025 at the latest. Still, it would take a couple of years before the facilities are ready to start producing gas. The situation of the Exxon project is somewhat different. I expect it will also resume, though it might be scaled back somewhat. The two projects have the potential to generate an estimated $50 billion in combined revenue over their lifetimes, which would be transformational for a country whose annual economic output is currently about $16 billion.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.