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Africa
What We’re Watching: Kenya’s president cracks down further, UK and France open an atomic umbrella, Trump meddles in Brazil
Riot police officers fire tear gas canisters to disperse demonstrators during anti-government protests dubbed “Saba Saba People’s March,” in the Rift Valley town of Nakuru, Kenya, on July 7, 2025.
Ruto orders police to shoot looters as Kenya protest escalate
Amid ongoing anti-government protests, Kenyan President William Ruto has ordered police to shoot looters in the legs. The order is meant to stop attacks on businesses, but could lead to more casualties after 31 people were killed on Monday alone. The youth-led protesters want Ruto to resign over high taxes, corruption allegations, and police brutality. According to Mercy Kaburu, a professor of international relations at United States International University in Nairobi, Ruto’s government “is not at risk of collapse before the next general election” which is set for 2027. But, she cautions, he “could be threatened if nothing changes.”
United Kingdom and France to open their nuclear umbrella
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a landmark deal aimed Thursday at restricting the flow of migrants across the English Channel. But the cross-channel agreement that may draw more attention globally is a pledge from Europe’s only two nuclear-armed nations to extend their nuclear umbrellas to allies on the continent who face an “extreme threat.” This is a big step toward “common European defense” at a time when Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and uncertainty about the US long-term commitment to NATO have prompted more urgent action in Europe.
Trump uses tariffs to meddle in Brazil
US President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the US will slap 50% on Brazil starting on August 1. The reason? Trump blasted Brazil for its “unfair” treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a rightwing firebrand and close Trump ally who is currently on trial for allegedly plotting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election. Trump also cited an “unsustainable” US trade deficit with Brazil, though official data show the US actually runs a small trade surplus with Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil’s leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, reportedly blindsided by the announcement, has vowed to respond with reciprocal measures.
See below for Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take on what Trump’s move really means.
Russian Minister of Transport Roman Starovoit attends a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in Moscow, Russia January 30, 2025.
$246 million: Ousted Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit was found dead in his car with an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound on Monday, just hours after being fired by President Vladimir Putin. Starovoit, a former governor of the Kursk region – which was invaded by Ukraine last summer – was potentially implicated in an embezzlement probe focused on $246 million which was earmarked for border defenses. The Kremlin says that it was “shocked” to learn about his death.
2,355: X said the Indian government ordered it to take down 2,355 accounts last week, including two belonging to Reuters. The Indian government, which has come under fire from press freedom watchdogs in recent years, said it had “no intention” of blocking international news orgs. X warned that it was “deeply concerned about ongoing press censorship in India.”
4,000: Clashes between armed groups in Myanmar have driven around 4,000 refugees across the border into India’s Mizoram state in recent days. While both of the warring groups oppose Myanmar’s military junta, they are also competing for territorial control among themselves.
200,000: Liberian President Joseph Bokai issued a formal state apology to victims of the country’s brutal 14-year civil war, as part of the country’s ongoing reconciliation campaign. The war, which raged from 1989 until 2003, claimed the lives of around 200,000 people and saw widespread abuses including mass killings, rape, and the use of child soldiers.
The BRICS, a loose grouping of ten “emerging market” economies led by Brazil, Russia, India and China, held their 17th annual summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, this weekend. While the official readout from the summit emphasized their commitment to multilateralism, the guestlist begged to differ. Five of the 10 leaders were no-shows, including Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
While the group’s declaration took aim at tariffs increases and recent attacks against Iran, it stopped short of mentioning the US or naming President Donald Trump directly. For more, here’s GZERO writer Willis Sparks’ explainer on why the BRICS are a bad bet.What We're Watching: House folds on Trump bill, Beijing lashes out at US-Vietnam deal, Nigerian opposition unites
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson walks back to office, as Republican lawmakers struggle to pass U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping spending and tax bill, on Capitol Hill, in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 3, 2025.
House holdouts bluff then fold on Trump’s budget bill
The US House is set to pass President Donald Trump’s epic tax-and-spending bill any minute now. Some eleventh hour House Republicans holdouts had signaled that they would oppose the broadly unpopular bill because it boosts the national debt by trillions while threatening to leave millions without health insurance, but they quickly fell in line after under direct pressure from Trump. The imminent final passage of the bill will fulfil Trump’s wish to have the landmark legislation on his desk by the Fourth of July holiday.
US-Vietnam trade deal angers Beijing
The US and Vietnam struck a preliminary trade deal to lower their bilateral tariffs yesterday, and China is not happy about it. Why? Because as part of the deal the US will heavily tariff any goods that pass through Vietnam from another country en-route to the US. That’s a direct swipe at Beijing, which does this frequently to skirt high US tariffs. China’s commerce ministry said it “firmly opposes any party striking a deal at the expense of Chinese interests” and threatened “countermeasures.”
Nigeria sees huge political shakeup as opposition leaders join forces
In one of the biggest shake ups since the end of military rule in 1999, Nigeria’s two main opposition leaders – Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi – have joined forces to try to oust President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election. In the 2023 election, they won a combined 54% of the vote compared to Tinubu’s 37%, meaning a common front could win. The big question: Which of these two political heavyweights will agree to play second fiddle to the other when it comes time to pick a presidential candidate?Hard Numbers: Russia and Azerbaijan tensions rise, Americans hit the road in record numbers, & More
People followed by mourners carry the coffins of Azerbaijani brothers Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov, who died in Russian police custody, to a cemetery in Hacibedelli, Azerbaijan, on July 1, 2025, in this still image from video.
2: Russia-Azerbaijan ties are fraying after the South Caucasus country said two Azeri brothers died last week after being tortured in Russian police custody. In retaliation, Azerbaijan has arrested half a dozen Russian state journalists working in the capital, Baku. The two former-Soviet countries generally get along but have had frictions over Azeri migrant labor in Russia, an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that was shot down over Russian airspace, and Moscow’s backing for Armenia in that country’s decades long conflict with Azerbaijan. The Kremlin said Azerbaijan was being “extremely emotional.”
87.1%: In the latest blow to free movement in Europe, Poland has introduced checks along its borders with Germany and Lithuania, partly a response to the surging number of people seeking first-time asylum in the country – the amount increased 87.1% from 2023 to 2024, more than any other country in Europe. The move is also a tit-for-tat measure, after Berlin introduced its own checks at the Polish-German frontier.
500: The war is going from bad to worse for Ukraine: After Russia launched over 500 drones and other missiles into its cities over the weekend, the United States halted a weapons shipment that was headed to Ukraine. The White House said it was putting its own interests first after lending military support to other countries.
14: With international demand for customer service centers soaring, is Africa ready to answer the call? Experts think so, predicting that the “Business-Process Outsourcing” industry will grow 14% annually on the continent in the coming years, nearly twice the global average. Anglophone African countries are particularly well positioned – the industry is growing nearly 20% per year in Kenya.
72.2 Million: A record 72.2 million Americans are set to travel domestically during the upcoming Fourth of July holiday weekend, according to the AAA, a nationwide motorists’ group. More than 60 million of them will be taking trips by car, driven – as it were – by the lowest summer gas prices since 2021 (and some fight delays).
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with Democratic Republic of the Congo's Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba Wagner and Rwanda's Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe on June 27, 2025.
On June 27, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed a US-mediated peace accord in Washington, D.C., to end decades of violence in the DRC’s resource-rich Great Lakes region. The agreement commits both nations to cease hostilities, withdraw troops, and to end support for armed groups operating in eastern Congo within 90 days.
But the deal also includes a critical minerals partnership with the United States, granting it privileged access to the region’s vast cobalt, lithium, tantalum, and coltan reserves. These essential components of electric vehicles, semiconductors, and defense applications have come increasingly under Chinese control due to Beijing’s backing of Rwandan mining and refining operations, something Washington wants to change.
So is this deal about ending conflict – or countering China? Will it hold? And do peace pacts now always come with a price?
A conflict rooted in ethnic strife and resource competition
Tensions between the DRC and Rwanda date back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in which the country’s Hutu majority killed as many as 800,000 people in the Tutsi minority. Many of the Hutu militias responsible for those crimes then fled to eastern Congo, sparking regional wars that killed millions more.
In the past year, the M23 militia, a Tutsi-linked group reportedly backed by Rwanda’s current Tutsi-led government, seized key mining territory in the DRC’s North Kivu province, displacing over 450,000 people. The United Nations and human rights groups say Rwanda is using M23 to plunder Congolese minerals, a charge the Rwandan government denies. The conflict has killed thousands and displaced as many as 2 million people.
What’s in the peace deal – and what isn’t
The agreement includes a framework titled “Critical Minerals for Security and Peace,” which allows US companies to invest in Congolese mining and processing under joint governance with Rwanda. The region’s mineral wealth is estimated at $24 trillion.
Human rights watchdogs warn, however, that the deal lacks enforcement and oversight. It also doesn’t include provisions for accountability over war crimes, sexual violence, or illegal mining.
Will the deal last?
There are roadblocks ahead. The M23 group itself was not party to the agreement, and has rejected its terms. And neither Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi nor Rwandan President Paul Kagame were present at the signing ceremony, sending their foreign ministers instead; the two leaders will reportedly meet later with US President Donald Trump. Qatar, which hosted talks between the DRC and M23 in early June, did attend the signing ceremony and has pledged to continue diplomatic efforts in the region.
According to Tresor Kibangula, a political analyst at Congo's Ebuteli research institute, the deal imparts "a strategic message: securing the east also means securing investments.” But in a conflict with such deep roots, he questions whether the “economic logic” alone will suffice to bring a lasting peace.
What We’re Watching: Budapest Pride parade, Rwanda and DRC peace agreement, SCOTUS ruling on Trump’s executive power
A woman lights a cigarette placed in a placard depicting Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, during a demonstration, after the Hungarian parliament passed a law that bans LGBTQ+ communities from holding the annual Pride march and allows a broader constraint on freedom of assembly, in Budapest, Hungary, on March 25, 2025.
Pride and Politics: the drama in Budapest
Hungary’s capital will proceed with Saturday’s Pride parade celebrating the LGBTQ+ community, despite the rightwing national government’s recent ban on the event. The culture war between the city and “illiberal” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán reflects wider urban/rural splits in Hungary. The European Union has urged Orbán to lift the ban and is probing the legality of Hungarian police using facial recognition to identify attendees. Many countries have expressed support for the parade, but the Trump administration, sharing Orbán’s misgivings about LGBTQ+ culture, is not among them.
Rwanda and DRC to sign Trump-brokered peace deal
Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo will sign a peace deal in Washington today, hoping to end a conflict that has killed thousands and displaced millions. The war in a nutshell: Rwanda has backed rebel groups that have seized large swaths of territory in the mineral-rich DRC. The Trump administration, which wants a Nobel peace prize for its efforts, brokered the agreement in part to gain access to DRC critical minerals, but critics say the economic terms are still vague.