Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
GZERO North
FILE PHOTO: Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland speaks during a news conference at the Canadian Embassy in Washington D.C., U.S. June 13, 2019.
Canadian Finance Minister Chyrstia Freeland is expected to reveal Monday that she has missed the $40.1 billion deficit target that she set for herself last year, the latest in a long string of fiscal targets Justin Trudeau’s government has missed over the years.
Freeland said Tuesday she expects the fall economic statement, which she will present on Dec. 16, will show a declining debt-to-GDP ratio, but she did not mention the deficit target. “I chose my words with care because it is important to be clear with Canadians. It is important to be clear with capital markets.”
The missed target will make Freeland a target of criticism by the business community and Conservatives.
According to a report in The Globe and Mail, Freeland and Trudeau are at odds over spending. Her office and nonpartisan Finance Department officials are unhappy about the government’s $6.28-billion plan for a holiday sales-tax break and $250 checks for people earning up to $150,000.
The gimmicky measures – which have not moved the polls for the Liberals – seem to have made it impossible for Freeland to hit her target.
The tension between Freeland and Trudeau revives questions about her future in the government. Trudeau brought Transport Minister Dominic LeBlanc, not her, to Mar-A-Lago last month, and the Globe reported Thursday that Trudeau is again trying to recruitMark Carney, presumably to take her job.A woman uses a phone next to a fighter of the ruling Syrian body, after members of the ruling Syrian body ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in the Damascus old city, Syria, December 12, 2024.
On Saturday, not long after Syrian dictator Bashar Assad fled to Russia, Donald Trumpwrote — in all caps — that the United States should stay out of Syria: “This is not our fight,” he wrote. “Let it play out. Do not get involved.”
Trump, Vice-President-elect JD Vance, and Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee as Director of National Intelligence, are all skeptical of American military involvement in the Middle East. But experts think the next US administration will end up taking a position similar to the one taken by President Joe Biden, mostly because it is in the interest of the United States to prevent Syria from becoming a safe haven for international terrorists.
Successful rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is a former al-Qaida fighter, but he has signaled that he has no interest in transnational terrorism and has sought to give assurances to Druze, Christians, and Alawite religious minorities that the new government of Syria will respect their rights.
Secretary of State Antony Blinkenhas offered to recognize Golani’s new government if he lives up to his promises. At the same time, the US military has been carrying out airstrikes against remnants of the Islamic State terrorist group. Two congressmen have written to Blinken asking him to ease US sanctions on Syria to give the new government a chance to rebuild the economy.
Experts think that although Trump might like to wash his hands of the whole country, American interests will likely require the US government to maintain troops in Syria, at least in the short term. He ordered the withdrawal of US troops from the region during his first term and then reversed his decision when confronted by the facts on the ground.
Kimberly Guilfoyle speaks during the third day of the Republican National Convention at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on July 16, 2024.
President-elect Donald Trumpannounced Tuesday that he will appoint his son Don Jr.’s ex, Kimberly Guilfoyle, as ambassador to Greece — the same day the New York Post reported that the younger Trump has taken up with a glamorous Palm Beach socialite.
Guilfoyle, a former Fox News broadcaster, was the Trump campaign's finance chair during his 2020 run and has remained a strong supporter. She started dating Don Jr. in 2018 and the two became engaged in 2020.
Trump earlier announced appointments for two other relatives — the fathers-in-law of his two daughters.
Trump spokesman Steven Cheungsaid suggestions that Guilfoyle’s appointment was related to her relationship with Don Jr. were “very sexist.”
Before she can take up her post in Athens, Guilfoyle must be confirmed by the Senate. Her appointment is unlikely to be as difficult as more high-profile picks, such as anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services, maverick former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard as the Director of National Intelligence, outspoken lawyer Kash Patel as director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation and former Fox News broadcaster Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary.
All of those controversial nominees were expected to run into difficulties winning the approval of senators skeptical of their qualifications, but pressure from Trump may bend senators to his will, as seems to have happened in the case of Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, who was persuaded to back Hegseth after first expressing reluctance.
“At this point, it looks like all will be confirmed,” says Eurasia Group’s US Managing Director Jon Lieber, “with the National security roles being the most on the rocks, and Hegseth most of all because of the allegations of mistreatment of women.”Kimberly Guilfoyle attends the Trumpets Gala at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, February 10, 2024 in Palm Beach.
President-elect Donald Trumpannounced Tuesday that he will appoint his son Don Jr.’s ex, Kimberly Guilfoyle, as ambassador to Greece — the same day the New York Post reported that the younger Trump has taken up with a glamorous Palm Beach socialite.
Guilfoyle, a former Fox News broadcaster, was the Trump campaign's finance chair during his 2020 run and has remained a strong supporter. She started dating Don Jr. in 2018 and the two became engaged in 2020.
Trump earlier announced appointments for two other relatives — the fathers-in-law of his two daughters.
Trump spokesman Steven Cheungsaid suggestions that Guilfoyle’s appointment was related to her relationship with Don Jr. were “very sexist.”
Before she can take up her post in Athens, Guilfoyle must be confirmed by the Senate. Her appointment is unlikely to be as difficult as more high-profile picks, such as anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services, maverick former congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard as the Director of National Intelligence, outspoken lawyer Kash Patel as director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation and former Fox News broadcaster Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary.
All of those controversial nominees were expected to run into difficulties winning the approval of senators skeptical of their qualifications, but pressure from Trump may bend senators to his will, as seems to have happened in the case of Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, who was persuaded to back Hegseth after first expressing reluctance.
“At this point, it looks like all will be confirmed,” says Eurasia Group’s US Managing Director Jon Lieber, “with the National security roles being the most on the rocks, and Hegseth most of all because of the allegations of mistreatment of women.”
Cost of Christmas Trees over time
The number of US Christmas tree farms fell sharply during the 2008 financial crisis and has continued to decline – so much so that 96% of the Christmas trees sold in the US come from Canada. Christmas trees take eight to 10 years to grow, making it difficult to start new farms and even harder to turn profits. Inflation has raised the cost of fertilizer and fuel, and these costs are being passed on to consumers
Meanwhile, prices for fake trees, which 78% of consumers polled said they intend to buy, are also up $5 on average this year. But fake trees have a far greater range of prices, with some costing as much as $1,000.
Environmental economics. Interestingly, the environmental calculus favors chopping down real trees over manufacturing plastic replicas. Researchers suggest that reusing an artificial tree 3-5 times can reduce carbon footprint, but each real tree bought supports forest ecosystems and local farmers.
Donald Trump, whatever else you might say about him, has a sense of humor.
“It was a pleasure to have dinner the other night with Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada,” he posted at midnight on Monday. “I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we may continue our in depth talks on Tariffs and Trade, the results of which will be truly spectacular for all!”
Trudeau, on the other hand, is a straight man.
“I think there’s a number of folks in different countries, and I won’t point out any particular one, where folks are going to be wondering about the choice they maybe made in elections,” he said, earnestly, in Halifax on Monday. “Let’s not be that kind of country in Canada … Let’s not fall into an easy trap of voting for change for the worse.”
Trudeau followed that with a lament Tuesday about Kamala Harris’ defeat, which led to a nasty attack by Trump supporter Elon Musk, who predicted Trudeau – whom he called a “tool” – would soon be gone.
The Trump Team has decided to make Trudeau a target for pro-wrestling-style trash talk, and Trudeau is ill-equipped to respond in kind because Canadians are rattled by Trump’s threats and have little confidence in their unpopular prime minister. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, not Trudeau, threatened to cut off energy exports to the US after Trudeau met with Canadian provincial leaders on Wednesday.
Trump has all the cards
Trudeau said it would be “a little more challenging” to deal with Trump this time than last, when they together negotiated a trade agreement, but that is an understatement.
Eight years ago, when Trump took office for the first time, Trudeau had an approval rating of 50%, the Conservative opposition was in disarray, provincial leaders were mostly cooperative, and as few as 15% of Canadians approved of Trump.
As Trump takes gets ready to take office again, 26% of Canadians approve of him, compared with only 23% who approve of Trudeau. Yes, you read that right: In Canada, Trump is more popular than Trudeau.
In 2016, Trudeau was seen as glamorous. Now, he is the target of derision from conservatives in Canada, the United States, and around the world, a poster boy for the kind of woke liberalism that is in retreat everywhere.
This time, Trump has all the cards, and Trudeau is in no position to bluff.
When Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian (and Mexican) imports if Canada doesn’t stop migrants and drugs from crossing the border, Canadian Conservatives urged the prime minister to take action immediately, proposed kicking Mexico out of the long-standing Three Amigos trade pact — do whatever he can, immediately, to prevent Trump from wrecking the Canadian economy.
What Trump wants
This is how Trump operates, says Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
“Part of his negotiating tactic is to open with a threat, underneath which comes a request,” he says. “And with the first term it was, ‘I'm going to tear up NAFTA.’ We all ran in circles for a while, and then it became, ‘Well, unless Canada and Mexico come to the table and agree to negotiate to fix it.’ And in the end, that was the most important part of the message.”
Trump is a New York property developer, long accustomed to theatrical public negotiations.
“My style of deal-making is quite simple and straightforward,” Trump (or his ghostwriter) wrote in his 1987 book “The Art of the Deal.” “I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after. Sometimes I settle for less than I sought, but in most cases, I still end up with what I want.”
The problem for Canadians is it is not yet clear what Trump wants, except to dunk on Trudeau. He has said that he wants Canada to do more to stop migrants and fentanyl crossing into the United States, but the scale of the problem at the northern border is a tiny fraction of the problem than the southern border.
Telegraphing chaos
Tyler Meredith, who was the lead economic adviser to Trudeau until last year, thinks Trump is trying to establish Canada as a problem because the northern border will be the scene of chaotic events when Trump starts deporting migrants.
“I think Canada has been pulled into that in part because he’s focused on the problem vis a vis Mexico, but he’s also thinking about it in the Canadian context because he knows that some of those people that may be deported, or who will self-deport as asylum claimants, are going to end up in Canada,” he says. “So he’s kind of saying, ‘Look. Be ready. Because I’m about to do this, and I don’t want to be the one blamed for it, because I’ve given you sufficient warning.’”
Meredith thinks a tighter border is likely not what Trump really wants — that increased defense spending and changes to the USMCA trade agreement are likely what he will get around to eventually.
That could be painful for Canada. Trump’s appointments signal anything but business as usual. Robert Lighthizer, who provided a steady hand as Trump’s Trade Representative last time, is out. Peter Navarro, who in 2018 said “there’s a special place in hell” for Trudeau, is in.
The Canadians will be looking to start serious talks with calm officials, like Lighthizer, but may instead find themselves dealing with more volatile people, like Navarro, who will take their cues from the trash-talking commander-in-chief.
Trudeau knows that his only chance of political survival hinges on managing this file properly, and it’s ultimately in Trump’s political interest to keep the trucks moving across the border, but Trump has the opportunity, and, seemingly, the desire, to keep bullying Trudeau until they work out a deal.
President-elect Donald Trump attends the 2024 Senior Club Championship award ceremony at his Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, back in March.
Amid all the geopolitical chaos, the best advice of the year: Don’t panic.
As they dined at Mar-a-Lago on a main course of tough, over-cooked tariff talk, President-elect Donald Trump suggested to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — in what the Canadians present later called a joking manner — that Canada might make a good 51st state. Naturally, people freaked out. First, Trump threatens to destroy the Canadian economy with 25% tariffs on everything, and now this? An invasion?
As the breathless coverage spilled over the international media, my colleague Gerry Butts went on Bluesky with a message: “Trump used this 51st state line all the time with Trudeau in his first term. He’s doing it to rattle Canadian cages. When someone wants you to freak out, don’t.”
It is sound advice. Don’t freak out.
Canada is no more going to become the 51st state in the next four years than California, British Columbia, and Oregon are going to break away and become Cascadia. Jokes are not policy.
So what’s up?
Trump is a zero-sum negotiator. He uses the powerful leverage he has to create “I win, you lose” deals. Threats give him a real negotiation advantage before the actual negotiations happen. That is the prerogative of the Big Dog countries, especially those run by strongmen, mercantilist leaders like Trump. Trump threats are simply the expected prelude to any deal. But what is real and what is rhetoric? And how to respond?
Invasion: Rhetoric. Dismiss.
Tariffs: Real. Discuss.
Rule One: Stick With Facts. Don’t get caught up in the torrent of tweets and taunts. Don’t give anything away until the actual negotiations start. Facts are your best friends.
Facts? Really? You might think that since Trump has ushered in the post-fact world, facts are a diminishing currency. That is a dangerous bet. For example, at the root of the 51st state jab are the much more dangerous Trump threats to slap 25% tariffs on all goods coming in from Canada and Mexico. Trump based this threat on what he says is the heavy flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants across the border.
Initially, that threat caused panic. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith immediately went into appeasement mode, telling the CBC’s Power and Politics, “It’s incumbent, I believe, on the federal government, along with all of the provinces, to work together to address those concerns if we want to be able to avoid these devastating tariffs that’ll hurt all of us.”
She’s not wrong that the Trump rhetoric needs to be addressed, which is why Trudeau immediately got on a plane and took his team for a strategic schmooze fest at Mar-a-Lago. Trump prizes personal relationships above all else, so a connection matters.
Rule Two: Don’t Take It Personally. Even though Trump has a long-standing sour relationship with Trudeau — he’s even called the Canadian PM “two-faced” — in Trumplandia, that doesn’t matter. His relationships with people change like the weather in the Rocky Mountains: If you don’t like what is happening, wait five minutes. It will change.
Trump is quick to anger and quick to forget. Can he get over his past irritations with Trudeau? Well, he got over JD Vance comparing him to … that guy who ran Germany in the war. He nominated former rival Marco Rubio, whom he used to mock as “Little Marco,” for secretary of state. Trump doesn’t hold the very grudges he creates, and the best way to get over that is to find a way to make nice, show loyalty, and suck up. That’s what the Trudeau visit was all about. Feelings first. Facts second.
That doesn’t mean giving anything away. And that’s where the facts come in. On fentanyl and border security, the reality is far different than the rhetoric. Canada is hardly a major threat to the US on either issue.
“The facts are hard to deny,” Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s whip-smart ambassador to the US, pointed out on X. “Last year, 0.6% of illegal crossings and 0.2% of fentanyl seizures by US authorities were at the northern border.”
That’s right. Only .2% of fentanyl seizures happened at the Canadian border. If you want to go deeper, check out the latest stats from the US Customs and Border Protection agency, which shows that the problem of fentanyl is largely at the Mexican border, not the Canadian one.
In fact, the CBP’s top official, Troy Miller, has an extensive interview on the US government website about fentanyl coming over the US border. Guess what? He mentions the southwest border 21 times and Mexico specifically seven times. Canada? Not a word. Canada and the northern border are not mentioned a single time. Why? It is simply not a major issue.
Rule Three: Know What Actually Needs Work. On the other hand, illegal migration is a real issue, both internationally and domestically. There is a key section along the US-Canadian border called the Swanton Sector (which covers parts of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire), and illegal immigration rates there have spiked according to stats from the CBP. But how bad is it? 23,000 arrests were made at the northern border between October 2023 and September 2024. That is up from 10,000 in 2023. Compared to Mexico, where over 47,000 arrests were made in November of this year alone, it’s a trickle (700 were arrested in November in Canada). Still, politically it is an issue Canadians will have to deal with if they want to avoid tariff punishments. Doing nothing is not an option.
Illegal migration is now driving election outcomes in France, Ireland, Germany, and many other places, so this ain’t a surprise. But proportionality matters, and the facts that prove that point can get lost in the storm of threats. It is critical this doesn’t happen.
Rule 4: Follow the Money. There is a high probability that a tariff-driven trade war — or skirmish — is coming very soon, and the facts here will be crucial. After all, high tariffs will hurt the very people Trump represents — namely, American workers. High US tariffs on Canadian goods will raise prices for US consumers and make life for them more miserable. That is a political loss for Trump.
Over 34 US states rely on Canada as their major trading partner, so expect state governors to pressure the White House to ease up on the tariff talk so as not to jeopardize the bilateral trading relationship that sees over US$2.7 billion worth of goods and services crossing the border each day.
To protect that, Canadian leaders will have to think hard about decoupling their trade relationship with Mexico, especially when the new US-Mexico-Canada trade deal gets renegotiated in 2026. The politics of the southern border have always cross-infected the northern one, but if the infection threatens to be economically fatal, there will be a change. The famed three amigos might be reduced to two.
But that is not for right now. Trade deals are not made on social media; they are negotiated face to face, when genuine swaps and deals can happen. Better to build relationships now over dinner, and serve up facts for dessert.
And don’t panic.
It hasn’t even started yet.