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President Donald Trump at a bilateral meeting with China's President Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019.
On Wednesday, Donald Trump said he would deliver a “fair deal” with China. He also said he’d be “very nice” to the country after meeting with major retailers. CNN reports the retailers gave the president a “blunt message” about the risks of a prolonged trade war with China, warning shop shelves could “soon be empty.”
Beijing, however, denied that there are any ongoing talks and told the US it must cancel its unilateral tariffs before China will broker any negotiations.
Trump is now promising a substantial drop in tariffs on China, which currently sits at 145%, though he says he won’t drop them to zero. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessentsays there won’t be a tariff reduction without a trade deal, and that it could take two or three years before the US manages to rebalance its trade with its rival, citing the past precedent of Japan, with whom it took a decade to rebalance trade volumes.
On Wednesday, markets were up on the China expectations and news, further buoyed by Trump’s comment that he had “no intention” of firing Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. But don’t bank on a long-term comeback or market stability. Earlier in the week, stocks were down with indices closing roughly 2.5% lighter than they started the day after Trump called Powell “Mr.Too Late” and “a major loser” as he pressed for interest rate cuts he claims will buoy the economy amid declining consumer confidence and a growing recession risk.
This Graphic Truth lays bare how a party in political freefall has roared back to life.
Despite the two parties narrowing by a point in the polls since they released their platforms this past week, looking at the arc of the race overall, it appears that the Conservatives peaked too early and the Liberals have made an impressive resurgence.
When Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned — accusing the Liberal leadership of being unprepared to face the growing threat of Donald Trump — it sent shockwaves through the party and delivered a major blow to Justin Trudeau’s leadership. The Liberals were already tanking in the polls, and many saw no way back.
But since Trudeau stepped down, the party has been on a sharp upswing. Trump’s renewed threats against Canada have sparked a surge in Canadian nationalism — a momentum the Liberals have tapped into. It’s too soon to call the results, but as the election comes to a close, this Graphic Truth lays bare how a party in political freefall has roared back to life.
President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on April 23, 2025.
In response to Trump’s tariff threats, Canada presented a security plan that included drones and helicopters for border patrols. The government began to roll the plan out soon after. In February, it expanded the plan, adopting a “Fentanyl Czar” and listing drug cartels as terrorists under the country’s Criminal Code.
Now, the White House is claiming that there have been “successes” at the border. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says “Thanks to President Trump, operational control of the border is becoming a reality, and the administration’s historic measures are yielding huge results,” with apprehensions down 95% from March 2024 levels.
Despite the successes cited by Trump, tariffs on Canada remain in place, including 25% on non-USMCA-compliant goods along with steel and aluminum, and 10% on energy and potash. There’s been no indication from the White House the tariffs are going anywhere, regardless of what happens with the border. That may be a vindication for those who’ve argued that the border was an excuse for tariffs, not a reason. But as the US and Canada face recession risks amid the trade war, it will be of limited comfort at best.
Election signs are displayed along the streets ahead of federal elections.
A record-breaking 7.3 million Canadians voted in early polls over the long Easter weekend, a 25% jump from early turnout during the 2021 election. The early vote is likely breaking for the Liberals, who are favored among early and likely voters, according to David Coletto of Abacus Data.
The polls have narrowed a bit recently, but polling aggregator and projection site 338 Canada has the Liberals up five points on average over the Conservatives as of Wednesday, while the CBC’s Poll Tracker puts the Liberal advantage at just over 4 points, with a 77% shot at winning a majority.
The Liberals enjoy a more efficient distribution of support in key cities and regions – particularly Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada – which means their probable voters are more spread out and likely to win them a seat compared to their rivals. But observers, including election experts Philippe Fournier and Éric Grenier, note the race is far from guaranteed for the incumbents, which could make for a dramatic election night.
Dick Durbin speaking to the press in October 2022.
Democrats have been waging a battle over who gets to bear torches for the party in the 2026 midterm elections. As GZERO’s Riley Callanan reports, young Democrats have been organizing primary challenges to older incumbents, including 85-year-old former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Until recently, 80-year-old Jan Schakowsky was also on the list, facing a challenge from 26-year-old influencer Kat Abughazaleh.
The average age of Democrats in Congress is 59, per Quorum, the third-oldest cohort since 1789. The Senate Democratic caucus is even older, with an average age of 63. Some of the older senators, like Durbin and 78-year-old Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, are retiring as their seats go up for reelection next year. Others, like Ed Markey and John Hickenlooper, who are 78 and 73, respectively, are running for another six-year term, complicating efforts to freshen up the caucus. Only one Democratic senator running for reelection next year, Jon Ossoff of Georgia, is under 50.
The push to lower the average age of Democrats in Congress comes after criticisms that 82-year-old former President Joe Biden hurt the party’s chances at holding the White House as he fought to stand for reelection.Canada’s political parties are united in offering plans to hit back against Donald Trump
Albertan Keith Gardner has been a member of the New Democratic Party his entire adult life. He’s the provincial riding association president for Lethbridge West, and he has worked on previous federal campaigns for the NDP. But in this year’s federal election, which takes place Monday, April 28, he’s voting for Mark Carney and the Liberal Party — and the reason is Donald Trump.
“There’s a kind of existential moment going on,” Gardner says. “I think the Trump piece elevates the stakes of the election.”
The election has been dominated by concerns like Gardner’s. Trump has shaped voter intentions, party strategies, and policy platforms. The two parties most likely to win, the Liberals and Conservatives, broadly agree on what needs to be done. Each supports reciprocal tariffs, reducing internal trade barriers, using government procurement to buy Canadian, and building infrastructure. They are also promising support for workers affected by Trump’s tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs. While the parties’ methods differ — to varying degrees — the message is clear: Canada must protect its economy from its largest trading partner.
Canada looks inward — and plans to build
The Liberal Party’s platform mentions Trump eight times. Carney argues that Trump’s economic program is restructuring the global trade system, a move that threatens to hit Canada hard since the US-Canada trade relationship is worth roughly $1 trillion a year.
The Liberals are promising to reduce internal trade barriers, lowering costs by “up to 15%,” and build an internal trade corridor so goods, services, and workers can move freely and easily. To do so, they’ll undertake “nation-building projects,” including ports, airports, highways, and high-speed rail in Ontario and Quebec. They’ll also “build out” Canada’s east-west electricity grid.
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party mention Trump six times in their platform. Their plan aims to “rebuild [Canada’s] economy and open new markets so we can reduce our reliance on the US and stand up to Trump from a position of strength.” The crux of the platform rests on fast-tracking approvals for infrastructure, including rail, roads, and power transmission lines — projects they say Canada can’t build now because of regulations.
The Conservatives are also all-in on pipelines, vowing to repeal the Trudeau-era Bill C-69, which requires impact assessment reviews for major projects. The Tories call it the “No More Development” law, claiming it “makes it impossible to build the mines, pipelines, and other major energy infrastructure Canada needs.” Carney supports the law. In contrast to the Liberals, the Conservatives are pledging to eliminate the emissions cap on oil and gas production and double oil production in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Looking outward … a bit
Foreign trade is getting less attention than internal trade, but the front-runners have some plans for boosting external commerce. The Conservatives will pursue a free trade and mobility agreement, CANZUK, with the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand. They would also push to export “cleaner” Canadian resources under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which allows countries to transfer carbon credits across borders.
While the Conservatives look to CANZUK, the Liberals are talking about new deals with MERCOSUR in South America and ASEAN in Asia. The Liberals would launch a CA$25 billion export credit facility to help foreign buyers finance Canadian goods. They would also fund efforts to make better use of existing trade, including Canada’s free trade deal with Europe and its deal with trans-Pacific states. The latter captures Australia and New Zealand but is a more limited deal than what the Conservatives are promising.
Weathering the Trump storm
After Trump leveled tariffs on Canadian goods, Canada hit back with reciprocal tariffs. The Liberals promise that “every dollar” from those duties will be used to protect workers and businesses. They’re speeding up and easing access to employment insurance – which, as the governing party, they started to do pre-election. They’re also looking to launch a CA$2 billion fund for the country’s auto sector for worker upskilling, shoring up the domestic supply chain, and protecting industry jobs from layoffs. Their plan includes an “All-in-Canada network” for making car parts, reducing the frequency with which components must cross the border.
The Conservatives will maintain “existing government supports” for the auto industry while removing sales tax on vehicles made in Canada for as long as the Trump tariffs are in effect. They’re promising a “Keep Canadians Working Fund” that uses reciprocal tariff money to support workers affected by the duties. The party says it will also “drastically” reduce the number of temporary foreign workers the country admits and ensure Canadian workers get a first crack at jobs, which could strengthen domestic wages for citizens and permanent residents.
Can the parties get it done, and will it be enough?
It’s easy to make promises during an election. It’s harder to deliver on them. Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's global macro-geopolitics practice, says that some promises are easier to deliver on than others.
“I think internal trade is a low-hanging fruit if you can get the provinces aligned, which it seems like they are,” he says. “There is no question that non-tariff barriers within Canada are an impediment to domestic trade.”
But even if the government does deliver on that, the shadow of the US will continue to loom large.
“The problem is that in absolute terms, internal trade is minute compared to the value gained from trade with the United States,” Thompson says. “So, a hit to the Canadian economy because of tariffs could only very partially be recouped by domestic efficiencies in terms of trade.”
He says recouping losses by boosting external trade with non-US countries is easier said than done. Canada has other trade agreements, but Canadian businesses are still attracted to the US market, which is large, rich, next door, and culturally familiar.
“Until that changes, it’s going to be hard for Canada to diversify its trade by governmental efforts.” Thompson’s waiting to see if industry follows the government’s lead. “Until then, it’s just talk.”
For all that talk, whichever party wins next week will be expected to deliver. Gardner hopes that will be the Liberals, kept in check by the NDP. Looking south, he says, “One of the things I think we can do is we can have a federal government that clearly stands up, that preserves the things about Canadian society that we have achieved together, protects our notions of person and peacekeeping, protects public health care, protects all these things that frankly the NDP helped create and instill into Canadian political culture.”
It could be the Liberals who win, or it could be the Conservatives. But, either way, the message from voters during the election has been clear: They want a government that takes a firm stance against Trump’s threats.
The $Trump meme coin together with Bitcoin and crypto coins, seen in this photo illustration.
50: The value of $TRUMP surged by more than 50% on Wednesday after the cryptocurrency’s issuer said President Donald Trump would have dinner with the top 220 holders of the meme coin next month. The top 25 holders of $TRUMP would get a special pre-dinner reception and VIP tour of the White House.
62.3 and 31.4: No matter which of Canada’s largest parties wins the upcoming election, you can be sure of one thing: Deficits are here to stay. The Liberals’ spending plans foresee a deficit of $62.3 billion this year, falling to about $48 billion by the end of the decade. The Conservatives see a deficit of $31.4 billion this year, falling to $14 billion over the same time frame.
25: The number of people locking in mortgage rates to buy second homes in the Tampa area of Florida fell 25% in the first quarter of this year. Experts say the drop is due largely to evaporating interest from Canadian “snowbirds” put off by the Trump administration’s attacks on Canada and its tighter security restrictions on foreigners.
28: It’s about to get easier to drill, baby, drill. The US Department of the Interior has implemented an emergency measure that caps approval times for energy and mining projects on federal lands at 28 days. Permitting for projects of this kind can normally take months or even years. Solar and wind projects are, notably, excluded from the new rules.