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Australia & Pacific
Survivors of the KMP Tunu Pratama Jaya ferry sinking wait to be identified by officers at Gilimanuk port, after the ferry carrying 65 people sank near the Indonesian island of Bali, in Bali, Indonesia, July 3, 2025.
65: A ferry carrying 65 people sank near the island of Bali, Indonesia, late on Wednesday. Six people have died as a result, and authorities have now ceased the search for another 30 passengers. The remaining 29 have been rescued. Ferries are a major mode of transport in the Indonesian archipelago, but safety standards are notoriously lax.
25: The South American trading bloc Mercosur will meet this weekend to discuss something that has been under discussion for 25 years: a trade deal with the European Union. The two blocs reached a deal in principle last year, but the EU has yet to ratify it due to opposition from France – specifically, French farmers. Mercosur did seal a separate deal, though, with a group of four non-EU European countries.
28: In an awful shock to soccer fans around the world, Liverpool striker Diogo Jota and his brother André Silva – also a professional footballer – died in a car accident early Thursday morning in western Spain. The Portuguese star Jota, who won every major trophy in England, was just 28 years old.
30,000: Europeans may not celebrate Fourth of July, but 30,000 of them are still having their travel plans disrupted this weekend after low cost carrier Ryanair canceled 170 flights due to an air-traffic control strike in France.A banner announces the construction of a photovoltaic solar farm in Cabaiguan, Cuba, on May 21, 2025.
55: China is financing 55 new solar power projects in Cuba this year, the latest sign of how it is overtaking Russia as the crisis-wracked island’s main benefactor. Some of Moscow’s recent projects in the communist country have stalled: a Russian firm pledged two years ago to revitalize a sugar mill that once employed 2,000 people, but it still sits idle.
3%: In a win for US President Donald Trump, Canada walked back on its 3% Digital Services Tax that prompted the United States to suspend trade talks on Friday. The tax, which disproportionately affected American technology firms, was set to take effect on Monday.
71: Israel’s strike last Tuesday allegedly killed 71 people at a notorious detention facility in Tehran, per Iranian State Media. The prison houses thousands of political prisoners, including opposition politicians, journalists, and activists.
4,000: More than a third of Tuvalu’s population – around 4,000 residents – have applied for a landmark ‘climate visa,’ which grants Australian residency to migrants from Pacific Island nations battling rising sea levels. NASA scientists expect that the country’s main island, home to 60% of the population, will be fully submerged by 2050.
$80,000: US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem reportedly re-routed $80,000 in political donations to a newly established personal company during her time as South Dakota’s governor in 2023. Noem’s lawyer said she “fully complied with the letter and the spirit of the law.”People ride motorcycles as South Korea's LGBTQ community and supporters attend a Pride parade, during the Seoul Queer Culture Festival, in Seoul, South Korea, June 14, 2025.
June is recognized in more than 100 countries in the world as “Pride Month,” marking 55 years since gay liberation marches began commemorating the Stonewall riots – a pivotal uprising against the police’s targeting of LGBTQ+ communities in New York. Here’s a look at where LGBTQ+ rights stand today:
47%: A recent poll of more than two dozen countries in Europe, the Americas, and Asia found that openness towards LGBTQ+ communities has dipped in recent years, with the proportion of people who believe LGBTQ+ people should be open about their sexual orientation or gender identity falling 8 percentage points, to 47%, since 2021.
1.3 million: The US government on Tuesday ordered the closure of the Trevor Project, a national suicide prevention hotline for LGBTQ+ youth, which has served more than 1.3 million people since it was established in 2022. The official announcement omitted the “T” for transgender – a sign of the administration’s broader anti-transgender push.
61: As of 2024, 61 countries have laws criminalizing same-sex relations, with 7 countries – Yemen, Uganda, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Mauritania, Iran, Brunei– still imposing the death penalty for such acts.
9.3%: The percentage of U.S. adults who identify as LGBTQ+ has increased significantly since 2020, rising from 5.6% to 9.3%, according to a Gallup poll last year. The main driver of this growth is younger generations: more than one in five Gen Z adults now identify as LGBTQ+.
10: Since 2020, 10 countries have moved to recognize same-sex marriage, with Liechtenstein and Thailand legalizing it earlier this year. Still, only 38 countries out of 195 countries have legalized same-sex marriage—see our graphic here.
1: There has only ever been one openly transgender member of the US Congress: Rep. Sarah McBride (D-DE) became the first after winning her seat last November.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Kiribati's President and Foreign Minister Taneti Maamau meet after the Third China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Xiamen, China, on May 28, 2025.
Last week, something highly unusual was spotted off the coast of Japan. In an unprecedented show of naval power, two Chinese aircraft carriers were seen cruising together near the country’s easternmost islands of Minamitori and Okinotori—far out into the Pacific Ocean.
The carrier groups conducted drills alongside one another for the first time in Pacific waters, accompanied by jets, helicopters, and supporting warships.
The operations underscore Beijing’s growing bid for influence in the Pacific, and experts say they are part of a broader strategy that extends far beyond China’s immediate neighbors.
Less than two weeks ago, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi hosted senior diplomats from 11 Pacific Island nations in the southern city of Xiamen, where he pledged $2 million to support infrastructure building and climate adaptation efforts in the region.
The Pacific Islands are a valuable prize on the geopolitical chessboard – around a dozen nations comprising thousands of islands and atolls stretching more than 7,000 miles east of Australia.
“All of the Pacific Island region weighs into China's kind of broader strategy,” says Kathryn Paik, former director of Southeast Asia and the Pacific on the US National Security Council, who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
China has stepped up its engagement in the region in recent months—a trend underscored by its navy ships making an unprecedented voyage around Australia and carrying out live-fire exercises off the coast of Sydney earlier this year.
What’s motivating China’s drive into the Pacific? Closer ties with Pacific Island nations could boost China’s influence in international bodies like the UN, and they could also give Beijing preferential access to vast territorial waters containing mineral wealth and fish stocks.
But beyond those diplomatic and economic gains, there is a bigger goal as well, says Rory Medcalf, Head of the National Security College at Australia National University. Dominating the Pacific with naval power could increase China’s ability to “knock the United States out of a future war in the region.”
Once a key battleground in World War Two, the Pacific Islands now lie at the center of Beijing’s broader Indo-Pacific security strategy. From the Solomon Islands to Kiribati, China has made repeated attempts to leverage its development projects to gain access to strategic ports and airfields—with the PLA’s newest destroyer docking in Vanuatu’s Port Vila late last year.
“Any Chinese presence there would significantly complicate the US and Australian calculus when it comes to any contingency in either the South China Sea or Taiwan,” says Paik. “If they were to actually be able to build out a port in Solomon Island, similar to what they did in Cambodia, that would be just like a game changer for the US, Australia and others.”
What do the Pacific Islands want? Pacific Island countries face a multitude of development challenges stemming from geographic isolation and the impacts of climate change, to a growing flight of skilled workers. With a quarter of Pacific Islanders struggling below the poverty line—regional leaders will be turning to any and all partners capable of providing meaningful support.
“They want development assistance. They want economic growth. They want to protect their natural resources,” says Medcalf. “A lot of the development assistance China has provided has been effectively building grand infrastructure to satisfy the political needs of the government.”
China has ramped up its development assistance in recent decades, positioning itself as one of the largest aid providers in the region. Between 2008 and 2022, China committed $10.6 billion to various projects in the region, ranging from building transport infrastructure and government buildings, to supporting healthcare and education initiatives.
But China is still the challenger in a historically Western-aligned region. Australia remains by far the Pacific’s leading development partner, committing $20.6 billion over the same period. And other Western-aligned countries are active as well.
“It’s a permanent contest, with other players—not only the United States, but Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and, to some extent, the Europeans as well,” says Medcalf.
Together these countries have provided alternatives to Chinese assistance, with the QUAD countries—Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—announcing a range of multilateral initiatives to boost engagement in the region in 2023.
Beyond this, Pacific Island leaders and their constituents are skeptical about China’s growing security involvement and influence in local government. In 2021, the Solomon Islands’ decision to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China triggered nationwide anti-government protests, with rioters torching businesses in Honiara’s Chinatown.
“One of the biggest challenges for China is that the region certainly does prefer and is more just aligned culturally and historically with traditional western partners,” Paik says. “There's a lot of unsettlement about where the money's going, why the decisions are made, of certain types of infrastructure, of the governing of the government.”
Still the advantage the US and its allies currently hold over China relies on them “staying on the ball” in the region—an approach that analysts say the Trump administration has deprioritized. The US’ cuts to USAID programs, tariffs, and withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization have opened the door for China to expand its influence in the region.
Last Wednesday, alarm bells rang in Canberra and London after the Pentagon announced that it was reassessing the AUKUS security pact, a multibillion dollar deal to counter Chinese influence by equipping Australia with a nuclear powered submarine fleet.
But while the geopolitical tides continue to pull the Pacific Island nations in different directions, their people are often focused on more immediate problems.
“We've actually got every chance of holding the line [against China], and most importantly, we've got to do it in a way that's respectful of the priorities of Pacific Island countries, because their priority is their own development,” says Medcalf.
What We’re Watching: Minnesota assassin suspect captured, New Zealand weighs its superpower alliances
Memorial outside the Minnesota State Capitol in honor of Democratic state assemblywoman Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, after a gunman killed them, in St. Paul, Minnesota, U.S., June 15, 2025.
Suspect captured in killings of Minnesota legislators
Minnesota’s massive manhunt ended Sunday with the arrest of 57-year-old Vance Boelter, accused of killing State Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, and injuring State Sen. John Hoffman and his wife. Disguised with a rubber mask and fake badge, Boelter posed as a police officer to enter the Hoffmans’ home, and a list in his car revealed 70 other targets – ranging from politicians to Planned Parenthood centers. State governor Tim Walz said the killings were “politically motivated” but the specifics of Boelter’s beliefs and motivations remain under investigation.
Pacific Pressure: A Kiwi in Beijing
New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, amid a growing debate in Wellington about the China relationship. Last week, several former PMs penned an open letter last week warning against aligning too closely with the US. Luxon says the visit will focus on the $38 billion of trade NZ did with China last year. But amid a deepening US-China divide, the geopolitical footwork for New Zealand is tricky: how to maintain economic ties with Beijing alongside security cooperation with the West, including potential membership in the US-led “AUKUS" defence pact.
What We’re Watching: School shooting in Austria, Duterte impeachment update, Crapo shoots for the moon
Police in and around a high school in Graz, Austria, after a gunman killed nine people at the school, on June 10, 2025.
Shooter kills nine at Austrian school
A gunman killed at least nine people at a school in Graz, Austria, on Tuesday, in what appears to be the worst school shooting in the country’s post-war history. The 21-year-old suspect, who was an ex-student of the school, reportedly took his own life. Austria has relatively liberal gun laws, compared to some other European countries, so we’ll be watching to see if this tragedy prompts any debate about tighter restrictions.
Could Duterte nab an impeachment reprieve?
The Philippines Senate on Tuesday sent impeachment articles against Vice President Sara Duterte back to the House for constitutional clarifications. It’s a reprieve for Duterte, who faces impeachment on allegations of high crimes, including a plot to kill her political (and dynastic) rival, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The stakes are high: if impeached, Duterte could be blocked from running for president in 2028. The political blowback could be severe, thoug: The vice president’s party outperformed expectations in last month’s midterm elections.
Trump’s Big Bill is now a Crapo-shoot
All eyes in Washington are today on Sen. Mike Crapo, Republican from Idaho who, as chairman of the Finance Committee, will be marking up President Donald Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax-and-spending bill. Crapo has his work cut out: A cadre of budget hawk GOP senators have called for cuts to the spending outlined in the House-passed version of the bill, while others are worried that any significant savings will come at the expense of Medicaid or other popular programs. Rock, meet hard place: Over to you, Mike.
Members of US and Russian delegations, led by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin, attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia, on April 25, 2025.
Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have called for direct Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul this Thursday.
Behind these calls for talks, though, is a battle over whether the US will continue funding Zelensky’s army.
Here’s the bottom-line: Putin won’t stop the war. He hopes instead that US President Donald Trump will grow frustrated (or bored) with the quagmire and withdraw support for Kyiv. That, Putin believes, would allow Russia to seize more of Ukraine.
Zelensky will keep calling for a ceasefire to persuade Trump – who toyed with the idea of coming to Istanbul on Thursday – that Putin’s the problem, in hopes of keeping some US support in place.
In the Philippines, Duterte edges latest edition of family feud
The battle for power in the Philippines is fought between two families: the Marcoses and Dutertes. Monday’s midterm elections favored the latter.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s partners look set to retain the Senate, but allies of Vice President Sara Duterte – who faces an impeachment trial – won more seats than expected. Duterte’s conviction is now less of a surefire bet.
In spite of the politics, House Republicans seek extra Medicaid requirements
When one House committee released its plan for adjusting Medicaid, it omitted the cuts that some ardent deficit hawks in the Republican Party sought. However, it still includes changes that could leave millions of recipients uncovered.
Politically, this is a risky move – polls show huge support for the welfare program. Fiscal conservatives in the GOP, though, will feel that the party must do it now, while they hold unified control of Congress.