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Australia & Pacific
China's top diplomat Wang Yi speaks at a meeting with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts, Yoko Kamikawa and Park Jin, in Busan, South Korea, on Nov. 26, 2023.
12: Ukraine’s top diplomatmet with China’s foreign minister on Wednesday, signaling that China would like to play a more central role in finding a diplomatic end to the conflict. The talk comes after China’s previous attempt to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, a 12-point plan put forward in 2023, wasquickly dismissed by European leaders for being pro-Russia.
1,000: Ahead of Israel’s opening football match against Mali at the Olympic Games on Wednesday night, around1,000 French police officers formed an “anti-terror perimeter.” The game, along with a match between Ukraine and Iraq, have both been given the designation of high-risk because of their connections to global conflicts.
200,000: In New Zealand, an independent investigation found that more than200,000 people are estimated to have been abused by state organizations entrusted with their care. Many of the victims were children in foster care, and the abuse included sexual assault, electric shocks and chemical restraints, sterilization, starvation, and beatings.
600 million: UN officials said that levels of hunger are set to remain “shamefully” high in a report that predicts almost600 million people will be undernourished by 2030 – half of which will be in Africa, putting it on track to overtake Asia as the continent with the most hunger in the world. Hunger rates have jumped in the wake of COVID-19 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and are likely to only worsen as climate change progresses.
A Philippine flag flutters from BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated Philippine Navy ship that has been aground since 1999 and became a Philippine military detachment on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea March 29, 2014.
Manila announced Sunday it had reached a “provisional agreement” with Beijing aimed at establishing an arrangement in the South China Sea that both sides can live with — without renouncing territorial claims. The text of the deal has not yet been released.
The agreement builds off last week’s announcement of the establishment of presidential hotlines and signals a desire for de-escalation by both countries – following a serious clash on June 17. But the key word in this agreement is “provisional” as both Beijing and Manila are already showing irreconcilable differences in their positions.
China had previously told Manila it could not bring construction materials to the wreck of the Sierra Madre, a decrepit hulk deliberately beached on the South Thomas Shoal by Manila to give it de facto control. Without repairs, the ship will likely break apart soon. But Beijing claims Manila agreed to give China advanced notice and allowed inspections of shipments sent to the marines it keeps stationed there carrying food and supplies. A senior Filipino official told the Associated Press that the final deal did not require the Philippines to pre-notify the Chinese of shipments.
What to watch? A deal to cool temperatures in the South China Sea would be welcome news for all parties, including the US. “The next big test,” says Eurasia Group senior China analyst Jeremy Chan, “will be how both Manila and Beijing behave on future resupply missions, and whether either side can cede any ground.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr review the honour guard during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China January 4, 2023
I know when that hotline bling, that can only mean one thing: Beijing and Manila are beefing over uninhabitable rocks again. China and the Philippines have reportedly set up a bilateral hotline meant to help them avoid a deadly incident in the disputed South China Sea.
The effort to improve communications follows a particularly violentconfrontation on June 17, when Chinese sailors surrounded and boarded Filipino vessels wielding bladed weapons. One Filipino sailor lost his finger, and the fear is that should someone lose their life, Manila could activate its mutual defense treaty with the United States.
The Biden administration has struck a nuanced position, assuring Manila that it would honor the treaty fully while also attempting to signal to China that they aren’t handing out carte blanche to the Philippines. Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says proactive communication after the June 17 incident has helped lower the temperature.
“Beijing interpreted the June 28 call between Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and China's Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu in particular as a clear signal that Washington does not support Manila in pushing its territorial claims too aggressively,” he said.
Being able to quickly pick up the phone and talk through future incidents is a useful pressure release valve, but longer term, the South China Sea and the shoals used to mark de facto control will remain a tension point. We are watching how it will affect US and Chinese efforts to stabilize their own relationship.
China’s foreign ministry on Thursday warned NATO not to bring “chaos” into Asia and accused the alliance of seeking security at the expense of other countries after it labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
China’s foreign ministry on Thursday warned NATO not to bring “chaos” into Asia and accused the alliance of seeking security at the expense of other countries after it labeled Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine. The foreign ministry’s comments come amid increasing cooperation between NATO and US allies in the Pacific, particularly Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
Washington and its allies accuse China of helping Russia skirt arms controls by shipping so-called “dual use” goods that can be applied in both civilian and military contexts. In turn, China gets access to heavily discounted Russian oil and gas — a desirable asset at any time, but advantageous for China’s economy at a moment when it appears particularly shaky.
At home, however, Beijing has signaled not to expect “strong medicine” to boost the economy at next week’s upcoming Third Party Plenum, scheduled for July 15-18 behind closed doors.
These meetings are closely watched because past leaders have used them to deliver big news. Deng Xiaoping announced the earth-shaking “Opening and Reform” policy, for example, at the 1978 session.
Xi Jinping isn’t expected to announce any major policy shifts, according to experts at Eurasia Group. So we’ll be watching for language intended to boost consumer confidence battered by the roiling debt crisis, but little by way of decisive policy.Marines conduct combat rubber raiding craft operations from the well deck of the USS Green Bay in the Philippine Sea, Feb. 6, 2022. The US commander-in-chief said on Feb 22, 2022 he had authorised the movement of additional forces and equipment to bolster NATO allies Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as Russian troops being ordered to eastern Ukraine following Vladimir Putin recognition of the independence of two separatist regions.
NATO was founded in 1949 as a counterweight to the Soviet Union, but 75 years on, the alliance’s gaze is shifting toward China. Its members are increasingly concerned about the evolving security dynamic in the Indo-Pacific and Beijing’s growing influence around the globe, which helps explain why leaders from New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, and Australia — countries that are partners with the alliance — are attending the NATO summit in Washington this week.
NATO in recent years has begun to see China as a “potential threat” and a shared challenge to be addressed amid efforts by Beijing to “undermine institutions in Europe” and “potentially threaten European infrastructure,” White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told GZERO Media on Tuesday at a meeting on the sidelines of the summit.
“There is a growing concern among NATO allies about PRC activities, and having Indo-Pacific countries at the summit this week is a great way to share perspectives on what they’re seeing,” Kirby added. “They’re actually feeling and seeing the threats by the PRC in a much more real, tangible way, in some cases, than NATO is.” Relatedly, Australia on Tuesday accused China-backed hackers of targeting government and private sector networks with cyberattacks.
NATO officially pointed to China as one of the alliance’s “challenges” for the first time back in 2019, breaking from its traditional focus on Europe and threats emanating from the Kremlin. The alliance has continued to characterize China as a security challenge in the time since, particularly in the face of growing cooperation between Moscow and Beijing.
China is not thrilled about NATO forging closer ties with countries in its neck of the woods and has effectively accused the alliance of trying to duplicate itself in the Indo-Pacific. NATO is “breaching its boundary, expanding its mandate, reaching beyond its defense zone and stoking confrontation,” Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said Monday.
Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder, in comments to GZERO Media at a summit sideline event on Tuesday, denied that there is an effort to “build a NATO in the Indo-Pacific” and pointed to the war in Ukraine as one of the primary reasons the alliance is increasing cooperation with countries in the region. Between North Korea providing munitions to Russia to fuel its war machine and China offering other forms of support to Moscow, it’s no surprise that NATO believes it’s “important to have a relationship with countries in the Indo-Pacific to address these threats.”
Similarly, Kirby said that Indo-Pacific countries attending the NATO summit have “seen what’s happening in Ukraine and just won’t stand for it” and are trying to find ways to support Kyiv.
From the moment Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there have been concerns that it could serve as a model for Chinese President Xi Jinping and his ambitions in Asia — especially in relation to Taiwan.
China is closely watching what’s happening in Ukraine and what the world is doing in response, and “they’re learning lessons,” warned Kirby.
Japan's Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and Philippine's Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro shake hands after signing the reciprocal access agreement, at the Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, July 8, 2024.
Japan and the Philippines signed a new defense pact on Monday, allowing the mutual deployment of forces to each other’s territory for training – part of a larger mutual effort to stave off China. But while Tokyo’s diplomats are sealing deals with much-needed allies, its defense officials are stressing that a weak yen threatens to eat up their budgets.
Before the Filipino deal, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reached similar defense agreements with Australia and the UK, and he has established historically warmer ties with South Korea, improving political and military cooperation. He is also trying to double defense spending by 2027, which would make Japan the world’s third-largest military spender. So why is Tokyo slashing orders for new airplanes and warning of more cuts?
FILE PHOTO: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. looks on as he meets with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, at Malacanang Palace in Manila, Philippines, March 19, 2024.
Representatives from China and the Philippines met for crucial talks in Manila on Tuesday to put some guardrails on escalating tension in the South China Sea following a serious confrontation last month. Three of Manila’s ships were damaged on June 17 when Chinese sailors surrounded and boarded them while wielding edged weapons, and one Filipino sailor lost a finger.
Manila had hoped China would promise to pay for the damage they caused during the most recent incident. But the meeting ended without any substantial agreement beyond affirming a joint “commitment to de-escalate tensions without prejudice to their respective positions.”
Still, Washington is likely relieved both sides agreed to keep talking about ways to tone down the increasingly violent confrontations. The US has repeatedly warned China that it will honor its mutual defense treaty obligations to the Philippines if needed.
Neither side wants war, but both Beijing and Manila see the South China Sea issue as one of core sovereignty – both sides feel this is their territory – and don’t find much room for compromise. We’ll be watching any future negotiations that might keep a lid on things until the US election in November, which could cause strategic re-evaluations if Donald Trump wins.Latest
China and Philippines sign South China Sea deal
Can a hotline prevent war in South China Sea?
China tells NATO to butt out
NATO’s pivot to the Indo-Pacific
Can Japan afford to muscle up?
