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Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from the Adriatic Sea.
How is Europe’s policy on Ukraine going to change if Trump arrives in the White House?
Well first, it is not going to change its fundamentals. You should know that the very first thing done by the newly elected European Parliament was to take a very strong and very broadly supportive resolution with very strong support for Ukraine. So what's going to happen is that, yes, Europe will continue that particular line, that it might be necessary. I think it will be necessary to further increase the financial support, the support that Europeans is already substantially higher than the Americans. But if the Americans diminish, reduce, stop, whatever Trump is going to do, then Europe clearly would have to step up even more.
How does Prime Minister Starmer's “renewal plan” make it possible to sort of make Britain great again?
Well, it's early days. It's clearly going to be economic policy that is somewhat more sort of interventionist in different ways. I think the important thing is that he wants to have a new start relationship with Europe. I think that's going to take some time, but I think it's going to have some effect. But, I don't think we will see any dramatic steps in the next few months anyhow. So it's early days.
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from the Adriatic Sea.
How will the new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reset relations at home and abroad?
Well, I think overall there's going to be a lot of continuity in terms of foreign and security policies. They've already sent the defense secretary to Kyiv to say that if anything, it's going to be even stronger support. But in terms of Europe, it’s going to be a new nuance and new attempts. The new foreign secretary, David Lammy, has already been to Germany, he's been to Poland, he’s been to Sweden, and he's talked about a European pact, foreign and security issues, cooperating more closely. And he's been invited to a meeting with all of the foreign ministers. So that's where we are likely to see, some change in the months and perhaps years ahead.
How did Macron survive the snap election in France?
Yep, that remains to be seen. There was, of course, a surprise result in the sense that the extreme right came in third after first the left, which has some extreme element, and then President Macron's coalition. But it's a hung parliament. There's no clear answer who's going to govern. So, we'll have to wait and see what's going to be the governance of France. I think the emphasis has shifted from isolating the far right to isolating the far left and see some sort of stable government can be made out of that. Very much an open question.
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
To which extent is the betting scandal overshadowing everything else in the last week of the UK election campaign?
Well, I mean, the Conservative Party has been the one thing after the others. They never really got traction for any of their attempts to have a, from them, positive message in this particular campaign. So it's downhill. I think to be quite honest, the election campaign is now only about the size of the catastrophic defeat for the Conservative Party. And then, of course, the Labor Party is surviving with very high figures without much clarity on exactly what the policies are going to be for the incoming Labor government.
Will the start of the talks about the accession of Ukraine to the European Union impact upon the conduct of the war?
I don't think it will immediately, but we should not underestimate the historic nature of this particular decision. A couple of years ago, the entire thought about Ukraine ever being a member of the European Union was absolutely unthinkable in Brussels among the member states. Now it's become a strategically imperative. And negotiations started this Tuesday with Moldova as well. They will take their time, but it's a sign that the 27 member states of the European Union see the future of Ukraine as an essential part of the future of a democratic Europe. And that is going to have its long term impact.
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano Castello, Italy.
Did French President Emmanuel Macron make a grave mistake by calling for parliamentary elections now?
Well, remains to be seen. I think it should be seen also in the run up, in the context of the run up to the 2027 presidential elections, they’re going to be the real crucial ones. I think he faced the prospect of a slow death in the National Assembly and deciding that this was the only option where he had any possibility whatsoever, of recovering some strength, if that's possible. Now, France is facing a very difficult choice between the far-right, a resurgent far-right, which had roughly 40% of the vote in the European elections, and a far-left, which is equally destructive in different ways, and the center ground having lost out considerably.
So a couple of weeks to go before we get the final results. But it's a big gamble that will have profound repercussions, not only for France, but for Europe as a whole.
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What happened in the European Parliament elections? Why is President Macron calling for a snap election in France? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Berlin, Germany.
What happened in the European Parliament elections?
Well, there was a shift, no question, but not the fundamental shift to the far-right that quite a number of pundits have been speculating about. If you look at what's been the sort o, the governing coalition, if you might use that phrase, of the center-right DPP, the Social Democrats, and the liberals Renew, they used to have roughly 59% of the seats in the European Parliament. They now have 56% of the seats in the European Parliament. It is a shift, no question about that, but hardly a fundamental one. And I don't think you will see much of a shift in policies resulting out of that.
Why is President Macron calling for a snap election in France?
Well, of course, even if there wasn't the major shift in European Parliament, there was a significant shift in individual countries. And, most dramatically, it was in France where President Macron suffered a very significant setback with the far-right, combined, getting roughly 40% of the electorate. Well, he decided this can't go on. So, he dissolved the National Assembly, called for new elections, got to be, sort of, in the early July, the decisive round. It’s a huge gamble. He might not have had much of a choice, but it’s a gamble anyhow. Will we end up with some sort of cohabitation between President Macron and elements of the nationalist right to France? Remains to be seen, but highly likely. Or will he succeed to mobilize those that are against this development in the country? That also remains to be seen. But that, of course, is going to have a fairly fundamental impact on what happened, not only in France but in the rest of Europe as well.
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Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What are the prospects for the European elections later this week?
Yep, it's going to be a big week for big elections. First, on Tuesday coming out the result from the world’s , by far, biggest democratic election, the Indian one. And then from Thursday onwards until Sunday, we have elections in the 27 countries of the European Union, 370 million people have the possibility to vote for the members of the European Parliament, 720 of those. Result remains to be seen. It's unlikely to be any revolutionary change, but we will see the Greens losing in some countries, the extreme right doing gains in Italy and France. But I think the major parties, the center-right European People's Party, the Social Democrats and the Liberals could probably retain the overall majority. But that remains to be seen. In addition, national elections in Belgium and Bulgaria. It's a big week for big elections ahead.
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Halmstad, Sweden.
Does the decision by Norway, Ireland, and Spain to recognize Palestine as an independent state further increase the isolation of Israel?
Not necessarily, but it does further reinforce the determination that is there throughout the international community, I would say, that it's only a two-state solution that over time, can bring peace and stability to the troubled region of the Middle East. In that sense, of course, Prime Minister Netanyahu and his resistance to move towards a two-state solution is increasingly isolated in the global community. And this particular decision is a further sign of that.
Does the decision by the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, to call an early election increases his possibility to retain his position at Downing Street?
Hardly likely, I would say. There are different theories why he decided to do the gamble. And though, it’s early for an election, it's not quite certain it would have been better to, it could have been equally bad to wait. So, he probably said, “Let's just get over with it.” But the Conservatives are 20% behind in opinion polls. It might not be that bad when it comes to the election. Election campaigns tend to have the effect of changing these particular figures, slightly. But the likelihood of, him still being prime minister of the United Kingdom by the end of July, that is, I have to say, very slim.
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