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What We’re Watching: “Big Beautiful” bill heads for the Senate, UK gives up Chagos Islands, Taiwan pivots to drones
Leading Republican senators during their weekly briefing in the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., USA, on May 20, 2025.
House passes Trump’s tax agenda, but senators will now have their say
By a margin of just one vote, the US House early on Thursday passed a budget bill containing President Donald Trump’s tax agenda, which centers on making his 2017 tax cuts permanent. Some last-minute changes to the bill helped to get it over the line: House Republicans increased the SALT-cap to $40,000 and accelerated the introduction of work requirements for Medicaid. But can the GOP get the bill through the US Senate? Lawmakers in the upper chamber are already plotting changes to the legislation...
You can Chagos your own way: UK hands islands back to Mauritius, leases back base
More than two centuries after taking the Chagos Islands from France, the United Kingdom relinquished the Indian Ocean archipelago to Mauritius, but will continue to lease a US-UK military base there, on the island of Diego Garcia, for another 99 years. The UK says the deal, which creates a 24-mile buffer zone around the base, is meant to ensure its long-term security amid growing Chinese aggression in the area. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the deal.
Taiwan adds new drone units as part of shifting military strategy
Ever wary of a potential Chinese invasion, Taiwan announced that it will introduce its first-ever drone units this year. The move is part of Taipei’s evolving strategy of effectively deterring Beijing rather than preparing for a direct fight. “Overall, the cross-strait military balance still tilts toward China’s favor, since China spends a lot more on defense,” says Eurasia Group regional expert Ava Shen. “So it’s more pragmatic for Taiwan to be a ‘porcupine,’ so to speak.”A view of the Business School campus of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, on April 15, 2025.
7,000: The White House has scrapped Harvard University’s authorization to enroll foreign students, putting the school’s roughly 7,000 foreigners at risk of having to transfer elsewhere or go home. The Trump administration accuses Harvard of fostering antisemitism and violence, and of “coordinating with the Chinese Communist Party.” Harvard plans to appeal the move, which could affect a major source of income, as foreigners typically pay full tuition.
331: Dozens of people were injured in a protest by pensioners and activists outside the Argentine Congress on Wednesday. At issue are demands to raise the current pension level of $331 per month. President Javier Milei has opposed pension hikes as part of his “chainsaw” austerity drive.
81: US Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) says he has gathered 81 co-sponsors for a bill that would impose a draconian 500% tariff on any countries that buy Russian energy. The biggest of those buyers is, of course, China. Trump reportedly told European leaders on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t ready to end the war, although the White House has disputed that account.
344%: The murder of two Israeli embassy staffers in Washington, D.C., has shined another light on the burgeoning wave of antisemitism in the United States and beyond. Antisemitic incidents across the US have increased by 344% in the last five years. Australia, Belgium and France have experienced similar surges, too.
27: A top Maoist leader was among 27 rebels killed by security forces in the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh on Wednesday, part of a government crackdown against this far-left insurgency. Nambala Keshava Rao was the highest profile rebel killed in decades. New Delhi has said it wants to end the insurgency in Chhattisgarh entirely by March 2026.
9,000: The Great Escape, bird edition: A juvenile East African crowned crane, known for its distinctive crown of golden feathers, broke out of a zoo in Washington state. If the bird is planning to return to its eponymous home, it will have to travel nearly 9,000 miles.Then-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney shakes hands with then-Chinese Premier Li Keqiang before the 1+6 Round Table Dialogue meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, in Beijing, China, on September 12, 2017.
Amid a trade war and annexation threats, most eyes are on the US-Canada relationship right now. But the future of Canada’s relationship with China, the world’s second-largest economy, is also an open question, and observers wonder what rookie Prime Minister Mark Carney is going to make of it.
During Canada’s recent election, Carney said China was the country’s biggest security threat. On trade, the Liberal Party’s platform mentioned the Southeast Asian grouping ASEAN and the South American trade bloc MERCOSUR as potential partners for new trade deals, but not China. In fact, the party’s only mention of the superpower was in the context of security, and the necessity of being prepared to “face a hostile Russia or emboldened China.”
Some have called on Carney to build a stronger relationship with China — Canada’s second largest trade partner — particularly in the face of economic threats from Donald Trump, but his government seems wary of deepening ties with Beijing while Trump is trying to decouple the US from China.
The US and Canada have a trade relationship worth roughly $1 trillion a year, and they share a border, deep cultural ties, and a longstanding security relationship. The Trump administration, which is waging its own trade war with China, has made it clear that other countries must choose between Washington and Beijing. For now, it looks like Canada is siding with its neighbor.
What We’re Watching: Putin celebrates in Kursk, “Death camp” discovery in Mexico, & DRC seeks US help against China
Russian President Vladimir Putin visits the Kursk-II nuclear power plant under construction, in the Kursk region, Russia, on May 21, 2025.
Putin takes a victory lap
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Kursk on Tuesday for the first time since the Kremlin declared that it had ejected Ukrainian fighters from the Russian region. It’s another flex for a leader who signals no interest in halting the war in Ukraine. The next challenge for Moscow: Can its army secure major battlefield gains this summer to further boost its bargaining position?
Activists press Mexico’s government on cartel “death camp”
Pressure is growing on Mexico’s government to take action against drug cartels that have kidnapped, tortured, and killed tens of thousands of people over the last two decades, after relatives of some of the 120,000 disappeared persons learnt this week about a “death camp” in the western state of Colima. Authorities discovered mass graves there 18 months ago, but only just passed on the information to victims’ families. Taking on these gangs is a complex task for President Claudia Sheinbaum, as local authorities lack the manpower and firepower to quell them.
US vs China in the DRC
Felix Tshisekedi, president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has picked a fight with China over its cobalt and wants US help. The sub-Saharan nation banned exports of the metal – an essential input for the battery, defense, and aerospace industries – in February, but China’s top cobalt producer, COMC, is now pushing the DRC to lift the ban. The DRC produces about three-quarters of the world’s cobalt, and is seeking to engage the Trump administration to find new investment partners in a bid to limit Chinese influence in its cobalt trade.
Detainees stand behind a fence at the Bluebonnet Detention Facility, where Venezuelans at the center of a Supreme Court ruling on deportation are held, in Anson, Texas, U.S. April 22, 2025.
350,000: The US Supreme Court ruled on Monday that the Trump administration can end temporary deportation protections for nearly 350,000 Venezuelans, making them vulnerable to mass deportation.
45 million: After a series of attacks on prison workers, France plans to build a new high-security prison in French Guiana, an overseas department of France which borders Brazil. The $45 million facility, meant to hold drug traffickers and radical Islamists, could open as soon as 2028, and will be located deep in the Amazon jungle.
27.4: With upper house elections approaching, Japan’s current government is facing its lowest approval ratings yet, as support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet has fallen to 27.4%. Shigeru is blamed in part for soaring rice prices, which have doubled over the last year.
5.03: On Monday, US long-term borrowing costs edged up to 5.03%, the highest level since late 2023. The increase reflects the loss of the country’s triple-A credit rating, and concerns that Donald Trump’s major tax and budget bill will plunge the US government into even further debt.
What We’re Watching: US and Iran near mini-deal, Europe election extravaganza, Diss tracks at Eurovision
An Iranian newspaper with a cover photo of US President Donald Trump and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, is seen in Tehran, Iran, on May 11, 2025.
US and Iran edge toward “mini-deal” on nukes
US President Donald Trump said Thursday that the US and Iran have “sort of” agreed on terms for a nuclear deal, one day after a top Iranian adviser said Tehran is willing to eliminate weapons-grade uranium, limit enrichment, and allow international inspections — if sanctions are lifted immediately. But dismantling their nuclear program or ability to enrich uranium, as per the Iran nuclear deal negotiated in 2015, is off the table.
“While a full-scale deal like the [2015 deal] appears unlikely, both sides are showing interest in a limited ‘mini-deal’ that reduces tensions and creates more space for diplomacy,” says Eurasia Group Iran expert Gregory Brew. “A win for Trump and for his new friends in the Gulf.”
Election extravaganza: Big weekend for Europe
There will be a trio of elections on the continent this Sunday. Here’s a quick roundup of who’s voting and where.
Poland: The first round of the presidential election takes place this weekend, pitting Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a centrist, against the right-wing Law and Justice leader Karol Nawrocki. The election will be a harbinger of Poland’s alignment with the European Union at a vital time for the bloc. Polls have Trzaskowski ahead, but well short of 50%, which means there will likely be a runoff between the two front-runners on June 1.
Portugal: The Iberian nation is holding its third election in as many years, leaving some of the electorate fed up with its stagnant government. Polls suggest the situation isn’t about to get better: Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s center-right Democratic Alliance is ahead but doesn’t have enough support to gain a working majority.
Romania: Of all the elections this weekend, it’s the one in Bucharest that is garnering the most attention, after the Romanian Constitutional Court barred nationalist candidate Călin Georgescu from running over allegations of Russian meddling. George Simion has filled Georgescu’s shoes and will seek to triumph over the pro-EU candidate Nicusor Dan. With polls tied, the race is on a knife-edge.
At Eurovision 2025: Glitter, geopolitics, and a sauna diss track
Europe’s glitter-soaked, pyrotechnic-powered music competition fever dream — otherwise known as the Eurovision Song Contest — takes place Saturday at 9 p.m. CET (3 p.m. ET). It’s part talent show, part geopolitical popularity contest, and fully unhinged fun.
Unlike in the past two years, politics is taking a relative back seat this time around. However, there are two diss tracks. Sweden’s “Bara Bada Bastu” — the odds-on favorite — roasts Finland’s love of saunas, while Estonia’s viral “Espresso Macchiato” mocks Italian language and American work culture. Mamma mia!An American flag flutters over a ship and shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro California, U.S., May 13, 2025.
Donald Trump’s supporters like to tout his 1987 book, The Art of the Deal, when they discuss his trade gamesmanship, but, a month after “Liberation Day,” it is getting harder for them to convince skeptical Americans that he is winning more than they are losing.
On Monday, the White House announced a breakthrough in trade talks with China, but experts note that American negotiators appear to have won few concessions after a month of damaging uncertainty for US business. The on-again-off-again tariffs have rattled small business owners and stoked fears of a recession.
The announcement of a partial reprieve — there is still a 30% tariff on most imports from China — was greeted as good news by shippers, who had shifted cargo vessels to other routes, but uncertainty around the future of the relationship remains high, which discourages investment.
The editorialists at the Wall Street Journal think Trump may have learned that his capacity to play chicken with China is not as strong as he thought it was, which may weaken the internal faction of China hawks led by Peter Navarro, senior counselor for trade and manufacturing.
The remaining tariffs still give Trump leverage over other leaders, since many countries want to keep selling into the American market, but opinion polling shows that voters are skeptical and fear Trump’s tariff policy will stoke inflation. Since the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t have to worry about midterm elections, and the US president does, they seem to have decided they can outwait him, which may limit how far he can push his luck.