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US Election

President Donald J. Trump (R) meets with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (L) in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, USA, 20 June 2019.

Reuters

The prospect of a second Trump administration is worrying millions of Americans, but plenty of Canadians are feeling a similar anxiety — including those in Justin Trudeau’s government. Last week, Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the US, said the country is “ready and prepared and able” to work with either Joe Biden or Donald Trump, noting the presumptive Republican presidential nominee “doesn’t worry us.”

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Trump trial: How would a conviction hurt his reelection bid?
| World In :60

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

How would a conviction in his hush money trial impact Trump in the 2024 election?

At least a little bit at the margins. And certainly that's the reason why Biden and the White House campaign are now working to pay attention to it, to get people down there in front of the courthouse where the media is located and talk about Trump as a criminal. Of course, could backfire on them, especially if it's a hung jury. But if he's convicted, while Republicans aren't going anywhere, there are a lot of independents that have consistently said that they are less willing to vote for Trump. Of course, this conviction comes in the lowest stake of the cases that are being presently pursued against the former president. This isn't the case on the insurrection and this isn't the case even on the classified documents being obscured, mishandled. And so as a consequence, I suspect at the end of the day, if you get a conviction, it's not going to matter much. But in a very, very close election, which is all about swing states and turnouts, it could hurt with getting independents to turn out for Trump.

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A flow chart of possible outcomes to Trump's hush money case

Luisa Vieira

After weeks of witness testimony in what is likely the only criminal case Donald Trump will face before November’s election, the jury heard closing arguments in the New York hush money trial on Tuesday.

Trump faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up a $130,000 payment made to former adult entertainment star Stormy Daniels to ensure she did not go public about their alleged sexual encounter before the 2016 election. Under New York law, falsifying business records on its own is a misdemeanor but can be considered a felony if done to hide another crime. If the prosecution can prove that Trump did so to protect his 2016 campaign, then he could find himself in hot water.

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Independent Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced 'No Spoiler' pledge for the upcoming elections at a campaign stop in Brooklyn, NY on May 1, 2024.

Lev Radin/Sipa USA via Reuters Connect

Last week, President Joe Biden and Donald Trump agreed to debate on CNN on June 27 and on ABC News on Sept 10. Under the rules laid out by the networks, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could qualify to participate.

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Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and US President Joe Biden face a summer of discontent.

Facing elections and down in the polls, Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau have a lot of bogeys on their radar, but three are starting to stand out: the election call in Britain, Labor strife in Canada, and the rising and potentially self-defeating political popularity of tariffs.

1. Rishi Sunak’s Soggy Snap Election Surprise: Comeback Miracle or Cautionary Tale for Incumbents?

After 14 years of Conservative rule in Britain, Labour now has a chance to take the helm. Beleaguered Prime Minister Rishi Sunak held a rain-drenched (read: pathetic) fallacy of a media conference yesterday to announce a surprise July 4 general election. Why did he do it? Most analysts expected Sunak to drag it out until late fall, giving himself at least two years as PM – 14.8 times longer than the wilting 49-day head-of-lettuce term of Liz Truss, who Sunak replaced in 2022. They were wrong. The Tories are down 20 points in the polls, so when Sunak saw inflation finally fall to the target rate of 2.3% – a rare win – he reckoned it wouldn’t get much better in the months ahead. A summer election could mean low voter turnout, which usually helps the incumbent.

Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau are watching closely. Both are also incumbents facing low polling numbers and an electorate that believes (facts be damned) that things are worse than ever. If Sunak can somehow turn it around – and that’s a big “if” – it would answer a core question: Can falling inflation rates reinflate incumbent popularity? Will people ever believe things are getting better? Biden and Trudeau hope so.

Sunak’s July 4 election will likely end in ashes, not fireworks, for British conservatives, but Biden and Trudeau will pick through the coals and see what they can learn from the fire.

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U.S. President Joe Biden, left, meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, to discuss the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023.

Miriam Alster/Reuters

The International Criminal Court’s prosecutor announced he’s seeking arrest warrants for both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump sits for his trial at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City, U.S., May 21, 2024.

Mark Peterson/Reuters

Donald Trump didn’t seem to enjoy his five weeks in a New York City courtroom, where he has been on trial for allegedly falsifying business records linked to hush-money payments to a former porn star, but it could have gone a lot worse.

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