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US Election
Nuns walk at St. Peter's Square, ahead of the conclave, at the Vatican, on May 6, 2025.
26: The conclave of 133 cardinals will gather in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel on Wednesday to begin the process of electing a new pope via secret ballot. To win the job with a puff of white smoke, a candidate must garner the support of two thirds of the conclave, plus one. Cardinal Pietro Parolin, a veteran Vatican diplomat, is the favorite, per Polymarket, which gave him a 26% chance of winning.
182: Some 182 days on from the 2024 election, and North Carolina has still yet to certify state Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs’ reelection victory. The Tar Heel State did move one step closer to affirming the result on Tuesday, though, after a federal judge narrowed the number of votes that were under dispute. Last November, Riggs, a Democrat, defeated Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin by 734 votes out of 5.5 million cast.
4: All four major airports in Moscow were ordered to shut after the Kremlin accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack on the Russian capital. There were no casualties in the reported attack, which came days before Russia holds a celebration to mark the 80th anniversary of the Red Army’s triumph over Nazi Germany.
14%: The US trade deficit jumped 14% in March, setting a new record of $140.5 billion as American consumers and businesses rushed to buy foreign goods like pharmaceuticals and computer accessories ahead of President Donald Trump’s announcement of global tariffs in early April. Some economists believe US firms were still frontloading purchases well into April.
18,500: An estimated 18,500 Sudanese have crossed the country’s western border into Chad over the last two weeks alone, per the United Nations, with many severely malnourished. Nearly 800,000 Sudanese have fled to Chad since Sudan’s civil war began two years ago. For more on why one of the world’s deadliest conflicts continues, see here.
>$1 million: Chris LaCivita, who ran Donald Trump’s successful presidential campaign last year, is reportedly earning more than $1 million to advise Albania’s former Prime Minister Sali Berisha. LaCivita is rehashing the MAGA message, only with “Albania” replacing “America.” Berisha, who faces corruption allegations, is hoping to lead the Balkan country again after the parliamentary elections on Sunday.The White House is seen from a nearby building rooftop in Washington, D.C. on May 4, 2023.
During the 2024 election campaign, US President Donald Trump made a plethora of ambitious promises to the American electorate and pledged to make them come true fast. He even suggested he’d be a dictator for a day to get them done. As he approaches the 100-day mark of his second presidency, GZERO assesses the extent to which he’s achieved his goals.
1. The swath of tax cuts – not yet
Wherever he went on the campaign trail, Trump seemed to make another promise about cutting taxes. He promised a crowd in Las Vegas that he’d end taxes on tips, told the Economic Club of Detroit in October that he’d make car loans tax deductible, and vowed to Wall Street leaders that he’d slash the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. Trump hasn’t yet achieved these goals, as only Congress can change the tax laws. Republicans on Capitol Hill are moving forward with the budget reconciliation process to amend these laws, but it’s not yet clear if the final bill will include all the specific tax cuts that Trump pledged.
2. The largest deportation effort in history – far from it
So much for this one. Despite all the furor over the deportation of alleged gang members to a Salvadoran prison, Trump can’t even seem to match former President Joe Biden’s deportation numbers: The current administration removed fewer migrants in February than its predecessor did 12 months earlier. That’s not to say the president’s rhetoric hasn’t had an impact: Border crossings have plunged since he returned to office.
3. Pardoning the Jan. 6 rioters – achieved on Day 1
This one didn’t take long: On his first day back in office, Trump absolved everyone involved in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, either by pardon, commutation, or case dismissal. The move appeared to surprise Vice President JD Vance, who said a week before the inauguration that those who committed violence would not receive clemency – the president duly overruled his second-in-command. Trump may not be finished yet, either, as he explores offering compensation for the pardoned rioters.
4. Ending the Russia-Ukraine war – not even close
A huge talking point for Trump and the Republican Party was that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would never have happened under his watch. Moving a step further, the president pledged to end the war within 24 hours of returning to the White House. If the former “Apprentice” star really believed his own words, he’s now had a dose of reality, as the end of the war remains firmly out of sight. The Trump administration seems fed up and is now on the verge of abandoning the negotiations.
5. His pledge to “cut the fat out of our government” – yes, and then some
Tariffs aside, the defining story of Trump’s first 100 days has been his extraordinary cuts to the federal workforce. From effectively disbanding the US Agency for International Development and initiating the end of the Education Department to being on track to remove a third of the Internal Revenue Service staff, the president and his billionaire advisor, Elon Musk, have taken a chainsaw to the federal government. To this end, Trump’s longtime plan to “drain the swamp” is finally coming to fruition, pending certain lawsuits.
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas speaks during a press briefing on the World Economic Outlook during the 2025 World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings on April 22, 2025 in Washington, DC.
“Just since January, we’ve entered into a new era,” IMF’s Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told the press Tuesday at the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. He explained why the IMF had just downgraded global economic growth expectations for 2025, from 3.3% to 2.8%, and global trade growth by more than half, from 3.8% last year to 1.7%.
Why? Global tariff rates are at their highest level since the Great Depression, following Donald Trump’s imposition of a 10% tariff on nearly all imports, along with duties of at least 145% on Chinese goods entering the United States. In a closed-door session with investors at a JP Morgan conference on Tuesday, US Trade Secretary Scott Bessent said that while the US will eventually de-escalate the trade war with China, negotiations with Beijing have yet to begin — and the process, he warned, will be a “slog.”
But an eventual de-escalation won’t alleviate concerns. “Beyond the tariffs themselves, the surge in policy uncertainty — related to trade policy but also more broadly — is a major driver of the economic outlook,” Gourinchas said. As a result, the US saw the sharpest downgrade among wealthy economies, with its expected 2025 growth falling from 2.7% to 1.8%.
Gourinchas notes that the downgrade could be temporary — if tariffs are rolled back and policy stability returns — but the IMF has raised the likelihood of a US recession this year to 40%, up from 25%.
All eyes are now on signals from the White House. Anticipation is building for Wednesday, when the Trump administration is expected to officially weigh in — and potentially upend the conversation. The administration has been hostile to international organizations like USAID and the United Nations, and some fear that the World Bank or the IMF could be next on the chopping block. Bessent is set to address the Institute of International Finance in the morning, followed by a high-stakes dinner with G20 leaders that evening.
GZERO will be watching to see how he responds to the IMF’s downgrade — and whether he offers any guidance to the institution itself. Some expect the Trump administration to urge the IMF to return to its traditional focus on balance of payments and debt crises, moving away from more progressive initiatives like supporting climate adaptation or promoting gender equality.
President Donald Trump signs an executive order to start the elimination of the Department of Education on March 20, 2025.
Nearing the end of his first 100 days, a milestone he’ll hit on April 30, Donald Trump has already shattered records with 124 executive orders — more than any other president. But he has signed just five new bills into law, a historic low, and many of his EOs are facing legal challenges, while some – like his bids to end birthright citizenship, freeze foreign aid, and ban transgender military service members – have been temporarily blocked.
Trump’s controversial executive orders have grabbed plenty of headlines, but what about the less-contentious ones? We know it’s a lot to keep up with, so here are a few you may have missed:
Scrub a dub dub dub STRONGER
Think of Trump next time you shower. Thanks to the executive order “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads,” the White House is taking aim at what it sees as the “left’s war on water pressure,” ensuring that showerheads will no longer “be weak and worthless.”
The order takes issue with Obama- and Biden-era regulations that lowered the amount of water shower heads could spout to decrease America’s water usage, arguing that the “13,000-word” regulation had turned the household appliance into a hydrodynamic device of bureaucratic oppression. Now, showers will be required to produce 2.5-gallons-per-minute, just in time for Earth Day, which is Tuesday, April 22.
Cutting out checks
Trump’s order “Modernizing Payments To and From America’s Bank Account,” will officially bring an end to the government issuing or accepting checks by the end of September.
While check usage has been steadily declining, the US still clings to them more than any other country — writing 10 times as many as Britain, Australia, Italy, Germany, and France combined. That’s largely due to America’s highly fragmented banking system. Since the federal government is one of the biggest check writers, this move could mark the beginning of the end for checks in the US — a payment method still commonly used by small businesses, contractors, and for charity donations.
Check writing in America is also deeply generational, with seniors aged 65 and up far the biggest users. So, if you’re hoping for a birthday check from grandma next year, set her up on Venmo.
Cartels designated terrorists, and deportations followed
A major part of Trump’s push to increase deportations is tied to an executive order called “Designating Cartels and Other Organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists.” This order gives the US government powerful new tools by officially labeling drug cartels and similar groups as terrorist organizations. It allows authorities to freeze their assets, ban members from traveling, hit them with tough sanctions, and prosecute them — along with anyone connected to them — even outside the US.
The move has already caused tension with Mexico, especially after the US used the order to justify flying surveillance drones into Mexican territory.
This policy works in tandem with another executive order, the “Invocation of the Alien Enemies Act Regarding the Invasion of the United States by Tren de Aragua.” Now that the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua has been designated a terrorist group, this order allows the government to immediately detain and deport suspected members. Some Venezuelan migrants have already been deported to El Salvador, although further deportations are currently paused due to legal challenges.
Mining influence
Another executive order “Establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and United States Digital Asset Stockpile,” directs the Federal Reserve — and by extension, the government — to be directly involved in buying and selling cryptocurrency. The reserve would hold five types of cryptocurrency, including 200,000 Bitcoin tokens seized from criminal cases — worth over $17 billion. With a reserve in place, those holdings could expand beyond Bitcoin to include Ether, along with three lesser-known cryptocurrencies: XRP, Solana, and Cardano.
Since cryptocurrency is still relatively new, the US taking this step will make it a key player in this emerging industry, potentially putting it in a position to influence prices. Trump has embraced cryptocurrency on the campaign trail and in his administration’s infancy, collecting millions of dollars in donations from crypto investors and founders and attending a crypto summit in March.
Make America Healthy Again
Trump has signed executive orders on health. The first, “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission,”creates an initiative to study key health issues like rising rates of chronic disease, the overuse of prescription drugs, poor nutrition standards, and how much influence the food and pharmaceutical industries have on regulations.
It will also lay the foundation for possible changes to things like vaccine schedules and food-labeling rules.
The second executive order, “Making America Healthy Again by Empowering Patients with Clear, Accurate, and Actionable Healthcare Pricing Information,” will require hospitals, insurers, and pharmaceutical companies to be more transparent about their prices.
The goal is to help patients clearly see what insurance plans, medical procedures, and prescription drugs actually cost, so they can make informed choices instead of relying on vague estimates or confusing information.
As we pass the 100-day mark, Trump’s executive orders have touched everything from Bitcoin to bathtime — and there’s no sign he’s slowing down. But the real test will be whether he can turn these policy priorities into lasting change by securing funding in the next congressional budget or getting them written into law.
Anderson Clayton, chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party speaks after Democrat Josh Stein won the North Carolina governor's race, in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S., November 5, 2024.
As the Democrats start plotting their fight back into power in the 2026 midterms, Anderson Clayton has a suggestion about who should lead that fight.
“Young people have the energy and the mobility to reshape the party in ways which older generations, quite frankly, are not interested in.”
Clayton speaks with authority on this matter. At 27 years old, the North Carolina native is the country's youngest state party chair. She won the highest organizational position in the swing-state’s Democratic Party at 25.
And others are looking to follow her lead. In recent weeks, a handful of young Democrats have announced that they will be primarying powerful incumbents like 85-year old former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 80-year-old Rep. Jan Schakowsky, and 70-year old Rep. Brad Sherman – to name a few. The challengers are former staffers and progressive influencers in their 20s who say the party’s establishment is too old and out of touch to stand up to Donald Trump.
“Donald Trump and Elon Musk are dismantling our country piece by piece, and so many Democrats seem content to sit back and let them,” says 26-year-old Kat Abughazaleh from behind an oversized podcast microphone as she announces her Congressional campaign via TikTok. “It’s time to drop the excuses and grow a f*cking spine.”
There’s a history here, after all. The party still remembers how Joe Biden stayed in the presidential race until just three months before election day, despite concerns about whether his age was an electoral liability. Many young people in the party still aren't convinced that generational change is happening quickly enough.
“Our party’s greatest problem right now is that people aren’t stepping back enough and saying, ‘Maybe it's not my time anymore,’" says Clayton.
She has a point: The average age of Democrats in Congress is 59 – the party’s third oldest cohort since 1789. Despite Millennials and Gen Z emerging as the demographic power center in American politics, Baby Boomers still make up the largest share of representatives in Congress, making up 42.8% of lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
From 2011 to 2024, there have been an average of 50 retirements per cycle. It is still early days, but so far just four members of the Senate and five members of the House of Representatives have announced they would not seek re-election in 2026. Meanwhile, two Democrats died in office in March.
Dr. Elaine Kamarck, senior electoral politics fellow at the Brookings Institution, expects to see a generational shift in 2026, but says that primary upsets might not be the main driver.
“In spite of all the talk, it is very, very, very rare for members of Congress to lose primaries,” she points out. “They almost never do. It's like 2% usually.”
However, she believes many older members are likely to step down of their own accord, especially if it seems like Democrats have a chance to retake control of Congress from Republicans.
“They have been serving for a long time and have a good sense of when it's time to go,” she says. “No one wants to be the next Ruth Bader Ginsburg, there are a lot of people concerned with serving too long and hurting their own party.”
But does age really matter? What’s clear is that young people approach politics differently than older voters. According to Pew Research Center, voters under 35 – who account for roughly 29% of the national electorate – are markedly less partisan than their elders and are broadly disillusioned with both parties.
“I think that we look at issues more than we do party affiliation,” says Clayton. “Painting things with a broad brush anymore isn’t going to get a young person out to the ballot box. It's going to have to be, ‘how are you going to fix this particular issue that's impacting my life?’”
The economy, cost of living, and housing dominated the list of policy concerns for young people in the 2024 election, followed by foreign policy and climate change.
Can the Dems win back young men? Any successful strategy to capture the youth vote will need to have a big focus on young men, 56% of whom voted Trump in 2024 – a 15 point gain from 2020. Clayton says she recalls hearing that young men felt like the only reason to vote Democrat was “because you were an ally to people that were not men,” rather than because the party was interested in their concerns.
Clayton says the Democrats need to rebrand to make young men see they are the “party of raising the minimum wage, and having the right to access housing when you graduate college or high school and not have to go into debt.”
In 2024, young men were significantly more likely than young women to say that economic issues like jobs and inflation were their biggest political issues, as well as immigration and foreign policy.
Potential presidential hopeful and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer has begun directly appealing to young men, saying in her most recent State of the State address that her speech was directed “to all young people, but especially to our young men.”
While her speech celebrated the strides women have made in recent generations, including outpacing men in educational achievement, college enrollment, and home-buying, she also acknowledged that the flip side of that progress is a “generation of young men falling behind their fathers and grandfathers.”
What’s the missing piece in the Dem’s midterm makeover? National leadership. Many say the party is lacking a clear leader for the party to rally around – regardless of their age.
Currently, the most popular US politician is 83-year-old Bernie Sanders, who’s net favorability rating is +7 points, the highest of any prominent US political figure. In contrast, the party’s most powerful member, Chuck Schumer’s net approval rating stands at an abysmal -33, almost as unpopular as the Democratic Party itself, which stands at -35.
Sanders is currently on a popular cross country speaking tour that even included a gig introducing Grammy-nominated pop star Clairo at the Coachella music festival. Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, who is nearly half a century younger than Sanders, has made frequent appearances at these events too. She is currently polling ahead of Schumer and is allegedly considering challenging him in the primary.
It's too soon to tell whether AOC, Sanders, or another figure will emerge as a new leader of a party badly in need of a rebrand ahead of the 2026 midterms.
But back in North Carolina, Clayton knows what she wants to see.
“What I'm looking for most right now is not the age of the person that does it, but who's willing to step up and really be the fighter that the Democratic Party needs."
Since this piece was published, 80-year-old Sen. Dick Durbin -- a 5 - term Democrat from Illinois -- has announced that he will not seek reelection because of his age.
U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 2, 2025.
During a speech in the White House Rose Garden on Wednesday, Donald Trump announced a 10% across-the-board tariff on US imports, with higher rates for countries that have a larger trade surplus with the United States – to the tune of 20% for the EU, 54% for China, and 46% for Vietnam, to name a few of the hardest-hit. Trump also confirmed that he’s imposing 25% levies on foreign-made cars and parts.
There are some exceptions: Neither Canada nor Mexico were singled out for “reciprocal” tariffs. While they are subject to automobile and steel tariffs, products compliant with the USMCA agreement – around 38% of imports from Canada and 50% from Mexico – will not be subject to any tariffs.
How are countries responding? The 10% tariffs will take effect on April 5, followed by the extra “reciprocal” duties on April 9. This timeline gives countries a chance to retaliate, and many have vowed to do so by imposing equally high tariffs on US imports. The EU said on Thursday that it would impose countermeasures if negotiations with the White House don’t go anywhere. China echoed the Europeans’ approach, threatening countermeasures if the US doesn’t pull back. Other countries were more muted, though: India said it would be “measured” in response, while Australia won’t counter at all.
The Trump administration is betting that some may choose to negotiate, either by lowering their own tariffs or increasing investments in the US. “My advice to every country right now is, do not retaliate,” warned Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Fox News. “If you retaliate, there will be escalation. If you don’t, this is the high watermark.”
Financial markets react. S&P and NASDAQ futures declined by 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, New York copper futures are experiencing the sharpest drop, plunging as much as 4%, while crude oil fell by over 3%.
Promises made, promises kept. From the blue-collar workers scattered throughout the Rose Garden crowd to the Teamsters union shoutout, the goal of the tariffs was clear: Trump wants to reshore manufacturing to the US. He also hopes that the revenue collected from tariffs will pay for the tax cuts making their way through Congress.
Trump is making a political gamble that the short-term pain from tariffs — price inflation and possibly even a recession — will be offset by economic benefits from tax cuts, deregulation, and expanded manufacturing. He’s betting that these benefits will arrive before the 2026 midterm elections. If he’s wrong, his party is likely to pay a heavy price at the ballot box.After voters elected her to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, liberal candidate Judge Susan Crawford celebrates with Wisconsin Supreme Court Judge Ann Walsh Bradley at her election night headquarters in Madison, Wisconsin, on April 1, 2025.
What was all the fuss for? Republican Randy Finecruised to a 14-point victory over Democrat Josh Weil in Tuesday’s special election for Florida’s 6th Congressional District, quashing the quixotic liberal dream of flipping a seat that US President Donald Trump won by 30 points in the 2024 presidential election. Combined with Jimmy Patronis’ Tuesday triumph in Florida’s 1st District, the GOP increased their House majority to 220-213 — heady days for US Speaker Mike Johnson.
The Fine print. Republicans will be relieved that Fine pulled through, but the margin of his victory may worry them. Fine’s supporters outspent pro-Weil groups on ads by a four-to-one ratio, amid concerns that the seat could be in play. Yet the Democrat still cut the victory margin in half, compared to where it was just five months ago. In the 1st District, Patronis also won by just 14 points — a paltry showing in an area that more closely resembles Alabama than parts of Florida.
Musk misfires. Despite plowing $25 million into the race, Elon Musk couldn’t help conservative candidate Brad Schimel over the line in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election yesterday, as liberal candidate Susan Crawford cruised to a 10-point victory. The result ensures that liberals maintain their 4-3 majority on the court with a suite of court hearings upcoming on abortion access, district maps, and collective bargaining.
“There is an unelected billionaire who should not and will not have a greater voice than the working people of Wisconsin,” former Vice President Kamala Harris said last night, a pointed remark against Musk.
The Tesla CEO wasn’t the only one who spent big on the race, as Crawford’s campaign committee raised $17 million as of March 17 and helped to make it the most expensive judicial election in US history. The greater concern for Musk isn’t the loss of cash — he has plenty left in the bank — but rather the political repercussions. Crawford and her supporters relentlessly attacked Trump’s right-hand man in their ads, and the bet paid off. Republicans’ private grumblings about the tech entrepreneur might just start to get louder.