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Assad’s fall, Romania’s canceled election, Trump’s Taiwan approach, and more: Your questions, answered
How did Bashar Assad get driven out of Syria after more than 20 years in power? What are your thoughts on his replacements?
I was surprised that Assad fell. He’s been such an important client for both Iran and Russia for decades and received their immediate support when the rebels began their offensive. But this was a particularly opportune time for the rebels to strike. Assad’s powerful friends were both distracted in other arenas: Iran with Israel (in both Gaza and, more importantly for Iran, Lebanon) and Russia with Ukraine. Interestingly, there is one key throughline connecting the fall of Mosul (Iraq), Kabul (Afghanistan), and Damascus (Syria) — all three were held by conscript armies that were fed, equipped, and trained by corrupt regimes … and when attacked by fierce radical groups fled as quickly as they could.
On its face, the fall of one of the world’s most oppressive dictators should be good news. Assad’s war against his own people led to the deaths of over 500,000 Syrians and millions of refugees fleeing into Turkey and from there to Europe. But I’m not yet confident that what’s replacing his regime will be much better. The Turkish-backed militants in charge are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a former al-Qaida affiliate in Syria that formally cut ties with the terrorists but is still (as of now) labeled a terrorist organization by the United States and NATO. Turkey wasn’t all in on removing Assad (at first). If the regime change goes well (a big if), the real winner here will be Turkey, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sending millions of Syrian refugees back home, becoming the main influence on strategically important Syria, and leading the fight against the Islamic State. This would land Erdoğan in Donald Trump’s good graces if it leads to a withdrawal of American troops.
HTS is clearly serious about establishing itself as the new, legitimate government — and a policy (for now) of relative moderation and tolerance toward other groups in the country is making that easier. But there are still so many unknowns and reasons that this can go terribly wrong.
Can Romania just cancel an election?
The constitutional court decided it’s “better to ask for forgiveness than permission.” After a massive far-right influence campaign by external (well … Russian) forces on TikTok and other social platforms was uncovered, Romania became the first democracy to ever cancel an election because of a disinformation campaign. This move will land the country in hot water regardless of the results of the rescheduled election. The court is viewed as highly politicized, so the decision will ultimately undermine it and whoever the future president may be – unless the far-right fringe candidate is allowed to run, and win, again.
How could President Trump’s plan to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine on “day one” impact China’s approach to Taiwan?
Whether China will push to undermine the cross-strait status quo during Trump’s second term is still up for debate. But Trump’s transactional approach to the war in Ukraine won’t affect China’s approach to Taiwan, at least in the near term. Beijing is still several years away from being able to credibly launch an invasion and take over the self-governing democracy. For now, China’s leaders are much more focused on regaining their own economic footing. That said, President-elect Trump’s interest in defending an island thousands of miles from the United States (and incredibly close to mainland China) is questionable at best. Many of his advisors care a great deal about Taiwanese sovereignty as a matter of US national security and longstanding American values, but Trump himself is much more interested in the country’s bilateral trade balance with the US.
What does Russia after Putin realistically look like?
If Vladimir Putin dies tomorrow, don’t expect a seismic shift at the Kremlin. Far more likely, his replacement would be another strongly anti-Western, nationalist leader who would fill the vacuum left by Putin’s departure. Such a successor would likely be more risk-averse, having to derive legitimacy and maintain power through the support of the country’s military, intelligence, and security leaders. It’s hard to imagine a dramatic shift in Russia’s geopolitical orientation when most of the country feels like the United States and “the West” have been out to squash their country’s power for decades.
Could a multi-party proportional representation system fix American politics?
America’s two-party system provides unique challenges for government representation by fostering an “us vs. them” tribalist sentiment, dividing the country into only two camps. It would be harder to immediately brand the opposing party as “the enemy of the state” if Americans had more choices. So, a shift to a multi-party system would allow a broader spectrum of ideologies into DC, and across the country, that would more closely reflect the diversity of the country’s population as a whole, which I think would be a constructive development. That said, it's hard to see how we could ever get from here to there given the stronghold on American politics (and the insane amount of funding) that the current duopoly has.
Why do you always defend the United Nations?
Some may find it controversial, but I’m proud of the United Nations. A truly global institution created by the United States out of the rubble of World War II, the UN charter reflects the very best of American values. As an institution, the UN no doubt has problems. The Security Council (and its veto powers) reflects a geopolitical order that no longer exists, lacks representation, and is accordingly broken. In the General Assembly, each country (no matter how small) has one vote but without enforcement power is generally weak and ineffective. Countries vote and veto in ways many of us wish they didn’t (but you should blame those countries, not the UN, for that).
What gets lost in the critiques of the bureaucracy of the United Nations is the amount of good that the organization does on a global scale, and with limited expenses (which, by the way, is where most of American funding for the United Nations is spent). The World Health Organization, World Food Organization, UNICEF, and other UN arms are systematically looking out for the world’s poorest and most vulnerable in ways most singular countries couldn’t be bothered to do alone.
Today, the world is heading to a post-carbon energy future, and that’s in no small part due to the architecture set up by the United Nations. Plus, new initiatives like the creation of a global framework for artificial intelligence (which I’ve been happy to be a part of) signal more positive developments are still to come on the only stage where every country in the world can have a voice.
What is on your radar over the next 24 months and not being discussed enough?
While there’s constant talk about artificial intelligence impacting our daily lives, the deployment of large-scale AI applications to an individual’s every dataset is not being discussed nearly enough. Personalized decisions or predictions based on human behavior patterns ascribed in large datasets are coming our way shortly. Before you know it, we will all have tools that will change humanity as we know it — in productive ways and post-human ways.
Where do you get your news, and what news sources do you trust?
As you might expect, the folks at Eurasia Group and GZERO Media act as my North Star when news breaks. With about 250 brilliant employees scattered across the globe working tirelessly to understand the inner workings of their areas of expertise, they bring priceless insight into what’s going on in the world on any given day. More broadly, it’s helpful for people to look outside their bubbles and read news coverage from outside their country of origin. For me, the Canadians (CBC), Germans (DW), Japanese (NHK), Arabs (Al Jazeera, etc.), and others cover the world in a much more effective way than the coverage we get from one hour of insular news coverage on cable television (or even from sitting down with the New York Times or Wall Street Journal).
What are your thoughts on pineapple on pizza?
Well, that depends. I’ll allow pineapple if there’s also ham and something spicy on top like jalapenos or chili flakes. Even then, I can probably think of 20 other things that I’d rather have as a pizza topping. Still, pineapple is preferable to cuttlefish – a Japanese fan favorite.
Are you hiring?
Eurasia Group is always looking for new talent – not just in our New York office but around the world. I am not personally involved in hiring, though, which is probably for the best. Thankfully we have a CEO and management team who make running the firm look easy. We’d be nowhere near as successful without them. Left to my own devices, I might run us into the ground. Ask anyone at Eurasia Group, they’ll totally agree with me.A Microsoft logo is pictured on a store in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York.
The Biden administration, which reportedly brokered the deal earlier this year, did so to box out the Chinese government, which has sought to expand its influence with the Persian Gulf’s technology sector. In exchange, G42 has been working to assure US authorities that it can be trusted, despite ties to China.
In greenlighting the latest export, which has not yet been formally announced by the US Commerce Department, the administration will place extensive prohibitions on who can access Microsoft’s facility in the UAE, including China, its officials, and any sanctioned individuals. It’s not yet clear which company’s chips Microsoft will be exporting.
The NVIDIA logo seen at the American GPU manufacturer NVIDIA Taipei office.
The California-based chip giant is negotiating with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, the world’s top contract chipmaker, to manufacture its top-of-the-line Blackwell AI processors at TSMC’s Arizona facility. TSMC has invested billions to bring its high-tech manufacturing to the Southwest US, thanks in part to a $6.6 billion cash infusion from the Biden administration as part of the CHIPS and Science Act. Apple and AMD have reportedly already signed on to get their chips made in the Arizona plant when it starts production in the first half of 2025. That said, the chips won’t be entirely made in America: Final packaging is done back in Taiwan, which complicates and prolongs an already lengthy manufacturing process.
Halfway around the world, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with the Thai and Vietnamese prime ministers last week as the company makes inroads in Southeast Asia. Nvidia also announced plans to establish Nvidia’s first research and development center in Vietnam, along with the acquisition of Vietnamese healthcare startup VinBrain for an undisclosed sum. In Thailand, the company signed a cloud deal with a company called SIAM.AI Cloud. Huang also emphasized the importance of “sovereign AI,” meaning that every country should have its own AI infrastructure and models.
In China, however, Nvidia is facing new scrutiny: The State Administration of Market Regulation is reportedly investigating whether the chipmaker violated antitrust laws when it acquired the Israeli-American company Mellanox in 2020. China previously gave conditional approval of the nearly $7 billion deal, but more than four years later, with the US restricting Nvidia from selling its most powerful chips to Chinese companies, the country is seeking new ways to gain leverage. A Nvidia spokesperson said the company is “happy to answer any questions regulators may have about our business.”
David Sacks, former CEO of Zenefits, is seen here speaking at a 2016 TechCrunch Disrupt in San Francisco, California.
Sacks will not be full-time in the role and will stay at his fund, Craft Ventures, but he will assume a lofty portfolio that covers two of the hottest topics in tech policy: artificial intelligence and crypto. President Joe Biden spent the second half of his term getting his departments and agencies to develop rulemaking on AI — and figuring out how to adopt the technology for their own purposes.
Meanwhile, Gary Gensler, Biden’s Securities and Exchange Commission chair, has ramped up enforcement of fraud in the crypto industry — though he’s stopped short of any sweeping shutdown of the coins. Trump’s election, promises of deregulation, and his personal interest in crypto have led to the skyrocketing price of many cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin.
Trump will take a deregulatory approach to both artificial intelligence and crypto, but it’s up to Sacks to coordinate across a sprawling bureaucracy and determine how to execute that goal. As a Silicon Valley stalwart, and one who has not severed business ties to join the government, Sacks will soon be the face of Trump’s tech policy, likely a heavy hand rolling back rules and regulations started under Biden.
Hard Numbers: Musk’s new money, A Marvell to behold, Enter the Chatbot Arena, Meta’s millions, OpenAI’s Sora
A photo illustration with the xAI logo displayed on a smartphone with the official profile of Elon Musk in the background.
6 billion: xAI, Elon Musk’s AI company, secured $6 billion in new funding last week, bringing its total investment to $12 billion and valuation to $50 billion. The company, which makes the Grok chatbot, is also reportedly building a supercomputer facility in Memphis, Tennessee.
100 billion: The chipmaker Marvell Technology saw its market capitalization rise above $100 billion last week after positive earnings and news that it’s helping Amazon develop its own AI chips. The AI boom has helped this small California-based chipmaker become more valuable than Intel, which has struggled in recent years and recently forced out its CEO.
170: A project from UC Berkeley aims to be the Billboard Hot 100 of AI models. Chatbot Arena is a website that lets users test different AI models and rate them, creating a crowdsourced ranking in the process. Google’s Gemini-Exp-1206 model is currently atop the leaderboard followed by OpenAI’s ChatGPT-4o-latest model.
600 million: Nearly 600 million people use Meta’s AI tools every month, the company now claims. Meta boasts 3.29 billion daily users across its social media and messaging apps — about half of the world population — so it’s unclear if the company is counting anyone who interacts with AI on Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp or solely through its chatbot.
20: OpenAI announced on Monday that its long-awaited Sora video model is now publicly available, letting users generate clips up to 20 seconds in 1080p resolution. The company first announced the project in February but limited access to a small group of testers.
President Joe Biden signs an executive order about artificial intelligence as Vice President Kamala Harris looks on at the White House on Oct. 30, 2023.
US President Joe Biden on Monday signed an expansive executive order about artificial intelligence, ordering a bevy of government agencies to set new rules and standards for developers with regard to safety, privacy, and fraud. Under the Defense Production Act, the administration will require AI developers to share safety and testing data for the models they’re training — under the guise of protecting national and economic security. The government will also develop guidelines for watermarking AI-generated content and fresh standards to protect against “chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and cybersecurity risks.”
The US order comes the same day that G7 countries agreed to a “code of conduct” for AI companies, an 11-point plan called the “Hiroshima AI Process.” It also came mere days before government officials and tech-industry leaders meet in the UK at a forum hosted by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The event will run tomorrow and Thursday, Nov. 1-2, at Bletchley Park. While several world leaders have passed on attending Sunak’s summit, including Biden and Emmanuel Macron, US Vice President Kamala Harris and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen plan to participate.
When it comes to AI regulation, the UK is trying to differentiate itself from other global powers. Just last week, Sunak said that “the UK’s answer is not to rush to regulate” artificial intelligence while also announcing the formation of a UK AI Safety Institute to study “all the risks, from social harms like bias and misinformation through to the most extreme risks of all.”
The two-day summit will focus on the risks of AI and its use of large language models trained by huge amounts of text and data.
Unlike von der Leyen’s EU, with its strict AI regulation, the UK seems more interested in attracting AI firms than immediately reining them in. In March, Sunak’s government unveiled its plan for a “pro-innovation” approach to AI regulation. In announcing the summit, the government’s Department for Science, Innovation, and Technology boasted the country’s “strong credentials” in AI: employing 50,000 people, bringing £3.7 billion to the domestic economy, and housing key firms like DeepMind (now owned by Google), while also investing £100 million in AI safety research.
Despite the UK’s light-touch approach so far, the Council on Foreign Relations described the summit as an opportunity for the US and UK, in particular, to align on policy priorities and “move beyond the techno-libertarianism that characterized the early days of AI policymaking in both countries.”- UK AI Safety Summit brings government leaders and AI experts together - GZERO Media ›
- AI agents are here, but is society ready for them? - GZERO Media ›
- Yuval Noah Harari: AI is a “social weapon of mass destruction” to humanity - GZERO Media ›
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- OpenAI is risk-testing Voice Engine, but the risks are clear - GZERO Media ›
That should come as no surprise; after all, the military has been a major funder, driver, and early adopter of cutting-edge technology throughout the last century. Military spending on AI-related federal contracts has been booming since 2022, according to a Brookings Institution analysis, which found yearly spending on AI increased from $355 million in the year leading up to August 2022 to a whopping $4.6 billion a year later.
In response to this demand, AI companies of all sizes are getting in on the action. Last Wednesday, on Dec. 4, OpenAI announced a new partnership with the military technology company Anduril Industries, known for its drones and autonomous systems. OpenAI had previously banned the use of its large language models, but with this partnership, it has somewhat reversed course, deciding there are, in fact, some applications that it feels comfortable with — in this case, defensive systems that protect US soldiers from drone attacks. In response, OpenAI employees have raised ethical concerns internally, the Washington Post reported, but CEO Sam Altman has stood by the decision. “We are proud to help keep safe the people who risk their lives to keep our families and our country safe,” he wrote in a statement.
OpenAI’s decision came mere weeks after two other big announcements: On Nov. 4, Meta decided to reverse course on its own military prohibition, permitting its language models to be used by US military and national security agencies. The company said it would provide its models directly to agencies, to established defense contractors Lockheed Martin and Booz Allen, and to defense tech companies like Anduril and Palantir. Then, on Nov. 7, OpenAI’s rival Anthropic, which makes the chatbot Claude, partnered with Peter Thiel’s firm Palantir and Amazon Web Services to provide AI capabilities to US intelligence services.
Military applications of AI go far beyond developing lethal autonomous weapons systems, or killer robots, as we’ve written before in this newsletter. AI can help with command and control, intelligence analysis, and precision targeting. That said, the uses of generative AI models such as OpenAI’s GPT-4 and Anthropic’s Claude are more sprawling in nature.
“There’s a lot of both interest and pressure on the national security community to pilot and prototype generative AI capabilities,” says Emelia Probasco, a senior fellow at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology and a former Pentagon official. “They’re not quite sure what they’re going to do with it, but they’re pretty sure it’s going to be powerful.”
And some of the best uses of this technology might simply be the boring stuff, Probasco added, such as writing press releases and filling out personnel paperwork. “Even though [the military] does some warfighting, it also does a lot of bureaucracy.”
For contractors of all types, AI presents a business opportunity too. “Defense contracting is a potentially lucrative business for AI startups despite some very valid concerns about AI safety and ethics,” says Gadjo Sevilla, senior technology analyst at eMarketer. He added that gaining the trust of the military could also help AI companies prove their safety. “They are more likely to gain other contracts once they are perceived as defense-grade AI solutions.”
Probasco says that the US military needs the expertise of Silicon Valley to stay on the cutting edge, but she does worry about the two worlds becoming too cozy with one another.
“The worst thing would be if we end up in another techno-utopia like we had when in the early days of social media, thinking that Silicon Valley is going to 100% come in and save the day,” she said. “What we need are reasonable, smart, hardworking people who respect different perspectives.”