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Paige Fusco

Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen will travel to the US, Guatemala, and Belize from March 29 to April 7 against a backdrop of deepening tensions with China, which regards Taiwan as a breakaway province. In the US, Tsai is expected to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and in Guatemala and Belize she aims to shore up relations with two of the last 13 countries in the world that recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty. We asked experts at Eurasia Group to explain the motivations behind Tsai’s visit.

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A map showing global water stress.

GZERO Media

This might be the year that the world finally acknowledges its mounting water crisis. From France to Zimbabwe and from the US to Chile, water shortages will drive new social and political conflicts. Rich developed countries will no longer be able to ignore the problem as one solely afflicting poor countries of the Global South. Against this backdrop, the UN is holding its first water conference in nearly 50 years from March 22-24 in New York.

We asked Eurasia Group expert Franck Gbaguidi what to expect from the UN conference and from efforts to address water scarcity in the year ahead.

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A vendor arranges onions for sale at a market in Lagos, Nigeria.

REUTERS/Temilade Adelaja

Thanks to the war in Ukraine and the pandemic before it, food inflation remains sky-high throughout much of the world. With the Black Sea grain deal set to expire on March 18, we take a look at global food security in 2023 with Eurasia Group expert Peter Ceretti.

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Supporters of Labour Party candidate Peter Obi attend a campaign rally in Lagos.

Nyancho Nwanri/Reuters

With less than two weeks until election day on Feb. 25, three leading candidates are locked in a tight race to be Nigeria’s next president. Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress and Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition People’s Democratic Party have the backing of powerful get-out-the-vote operations. But Peter Obi of the Labour Party — who has promised to overhaul the country’s politics and create a “new Nigeria” — is leading several voting-intention surveys conducted in the run-up to the vote.

What does this all mean for the election outcome and the prospect for solutions to the country’s social and economic problems? We asked Eurasia Group expert Amaka Anku for her thoughts.

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A protester interacts with police during a demonstration against Peru's President Dina Boluarte in January 2023.

REUTERS/Alessandro

If it seems like Peru’s last few governments can’t catch a break, you’re not far off. Peruvian governments collapse like you fall asleep: slowly ... and then all at once.

Last year’s chaos under President Pedro Castillo showed us that, and the new Dina Boluarte administration will likely suffer a similar fate. Under Castillo, a string of efforts to oust him on the basis of “moral incapacity” and criminal investigations into him and members of his inner circle chipped slowly away at his mandate for a year and a half, only for it to entirely crumble in a matter of hours. In one day, Castillo attempted to illegally dissolve Congress, got ousted by Congress, was arrested and transferred to preventive detention, and was succeeded by his vice president.

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GZERO World

As their relations with the US have soured, China and Russia have grown more reluctant to help the US and South Korea manage their North Korea problem. This has created more space for the North to develop and show off the weapons capabilities that the nation’s rogue regime deems essential to its survival.

Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un recently called for an “exponential increase” in North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. In response to the heightened threat, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has said that US guarantees of protection may no longer be enough for his country and that it may need to acquire nukes of its own, although he has recently walked back some of those statements.

What could go wrong? We asked Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan what to expect this year on the Korean Peninsula.

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Paige Fusco

Japan and the Netherlands have reportedly agreed to join US export controls to stop China from getting the machines to make some of the world’s most advanced semiconductors — in part, the Biden administration claims, to make high-tech weapons. It's a major milestone in the broader US push to beat China in the race to dominate global tech with "weapons" such as the $52 billion CHIPS Act, which aims to subsidize domestic chipmaking in America and make it harder for China to access the tech.

We learn more from Eurasia Group's senior analyst Nick Reiners.

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