Viewpoint

Putin attends a meeting with Senegal's President and African Union chair Macky Sall in Sochi.

REUTERS

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US and Europe have launched a concerted campaign to punish Russia economically and isolate it politically. The West wants to send a strong message to other powers that might be tempted to violate the so-called rules-based international order. But many developing countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America are reluctant to go along, blunting the effectiveness of this campaign. We spoke to Eurasia Group expert Christopher Garman to better understand the reasons for their skepticism, and what the consequences are likely to be.

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Pedestrians cross the street under flags of the China and Hong Kong.

Miguel Candela / SOPA Images/Sip via Reuters Connect

On Friday, President Xi Jinping will leave mainland China for the first time in more than two years to mark the 25th anniversary of the UK's handover of Hong Kong to the People's Republic. It's the halfway mark for the "one country, two systems" deal with the Brits for the territory to enjoy (limited) democracy for 50 years. We asked Eurasia Group analyst Neil Thomas to shed some light on why this date is such a big deal for Xi and the future of Hong Kong.

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An oil pump is seen at sunset near Reims, France.

REUTERS/Pascal Rossignol

We’ve heard dire warnings in recent weeks from oil industry analysts and professionals about how already-high oil prices could rise to record levels in the coming months. Goldman Sachs has increased its price forecast for the second half of the year to $135 per barrel. Trading giant Trafigura predicted that prices could rise even higher to over $150 per barrel.

Underpinning these alarms are fears that the war in Ukraine will lead to a big fall in Russian crude production and exports. Ever since Russia invaded its western neighbor, markets have been on alert for signs of acute disruptions that would squeeze crude supplies.

But what if they are looking in the wrong direction? What if the fixation on the risk of a supply shock (losing Russian barrels) is diverting attention from a very real weakening of global demand for oil?

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Colombian presidential candidate Rodolfo Hernández speaks at a news conference in Miami.

REUTERS/Marco Bello

The second round of Colombia’s presidential election on June 19 will pit leftist Senator Gustavo Petro against populist businessman Rodolfo Hernández. While Petro would represent big structural change from the conservative establishment that has governed the country for decades, Hernández would represent a change in the way politics are done. Petro, a three-time presidential candidate and prominent critic of the current administration of President Iván Duque, had initially appeared likely to run away with the election. But Hernández, a newcomer to the national political stage, came on strong in the late stages of the campaign and finished a close second to Petro in the 29 May first round of the election.

We spoke to Eurasia Group analyst Sara Torres Raisbeck to find out a little more about who Hernández is, and what Colombia might look like if he wins.

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South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa.

REUTERS/Johanna Geron

Eurasia Group's Africa Director Shridaran Pillay looks at the year ahead for President Cyril Ramaphosa.

President Cyril Ramaphosa is struggling to resolve numerous deep-rooted problems in South Africa: high unemployment, low economic growth, rolling electricity blackouts, and the wage demands of public-sector unions that continually threaten to derail public finances. But to effectively deal with these challenges, he first must shore up his own political position.

At the ruling African National Congress’s elective conference in December, Ramaphosa will try to obtain a new term as party president and place close allies in other important positions. That would allow him to unify a divided party, press ahead with needed economic reforms, and continue with an anti-corruption campaign aimed at reforming the ANC's image ahead of the 2024 election and sidelining opponents to his agenda.

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Colombian presidential candidate Gustavo Petro signs an alliance with his running mate in Bogotá.

Sebastian Barros via Reuters Connect

As Colombians prepare to vote this Sunday for their next president, the country may be on the verge of a historic political shift. Though the race has tightened, senator and three-time presidential candidate Gustavo Petro maintains his lead in the polls, positioning him to become the country’s first-ever leftist leader. What are the drivers of this momentous change? We spoke with Eurasia Group analyst Sara Torres Raisbeck to find out.

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Sri Lankan army patrol on a main road in Colombo following clashes between anti-government protesters and supporters of the Rajapaksa family.

REUTERS/Dinuka Liyanawatte

For weeks, Sri Lanka has been in the grips of a deepening economic and political crisis, teetering on the brink of anarchy and chaos as a largely bankrupt state at risk of becoming a failed one. Massive protests driven by soaring fuel and food prices have forced the resignation of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and upped the pressure on the international community to help alleviate the suffering of Sri Lankans. China and India, which have both vied for influence in the small island nation, are looking on nervously. We spoke to Eurasia Group’s Peter Mumford to get a sense of what might happen next and what the geopolitical stakes are.

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Hunger Pains: The growing global food crisis | Monday, July 11, 2022 | 2:00 pm ET
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