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The world’s most populous country will hold elections between April 19 and 1 June for its lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha. The 543-member chamber is India’s primary legislative body, and its composition will determine which party or coalition gets to nominate a prime minister and form the next government. Over the 44-day electoral period, nearly 970 million people will be eligible to vote, the most ever. More than 1 million polling stations will be set up, and officials will be dispatched to remote corners of the country’s vast geography to collect ballots.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, one of the world’s most popular heads of state, is expected to lead his Bharatiya Janata Party to a comfortable victory and secure a third consecutive term in office. We sat down with Eurasia Group experts Rahul Bhatia and Pramit Pal Chaudhuri to learn more about the upcoming elections.
What are the main issues for voters?
The chief concerns are inflation, particularly high food prices, and unemployment, especially among the youth. More than one-third of Indians believe they are worse off than before the pandemic-induced lockdowns, while about two-thirds say it is now harder to find a job. Though religious-political issues are also on voters' minds, they hold less weight than economic ones.
Despite apparent concerns about the economy, an overwhelming 75% of Indians approve of Modi’s leadership. He gets high marks for delivering targeted welfare schemes, upgrading the country’s infrastructure, and raising India’s international profile. He also gets credit for implementing elements of the BJP’s longstanding religious-political agenda, such as constructing a grand temple dedicated to the Hindu deity Ram and revoking the special autonomous status of the Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir region.
Modi has come under criticism for alleged anti-democratic tendencies – why is that and will this be a factor for voters?
Under Modi, press and political freedoms have suffered. Opposition parties have accused the prime minister of using government investigative agencies to harass opposition leaders and constrain their ability to contest elections. Other critics allege the government has undermined India’s secular constitution and its pluralistic values with its actions favoring the country’s Hindu majority population. While Modi's attitude toward civil liberties is not unlike that of past prime ministers who enjoyed a similar single-party majority, there are genuine concerns about democratic backsliding in India. Nevertheless, apart from a small urban elite, the average Indian voter doesn’t seem concerned.
What is the state of the opposition alliance?
Since the 2014 elections that brought Modi to power, the Indian National Congress, India’s largest opposition party, has struggled with a lack of clear leadership and an inability to craft an alternative political narrative that could capture the imagination of voters. It recently pivoted to an agenda of social and economic justice, but this strategy has not yet been tested at the ballot box.
Last July, the Congress and 25 smaller parties formed the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, aka INDIA, a big-tent coalition to pool their vote shares and create a stronger challenger to Modi and the BJP. However, the alliance has failed to cohere, and some regional parties have defected to the BJP’s alliance. Moreover, while seat-sharing arrangements had been agreed upon in some states, key regional parties have decided to contest their strongholds on their own, defeating the alliance’s purpose. The Congress and its partners remain far behind the BJP in the polls; they are not fighting to win the upcoming elections but rather to preserve their respective geographic power bases and limit Modi’s majority.
Modi has indicated he wants an expanded parliamentary majority – what does he aim to achieve in a potential third term?
Modi has said he aims to win 370 seats in the lower house of parliament, up from 303 at present. He is seeking a strong mandate to push through legislative changes – some of which are unpopular or challenge vested interests – that he believes are necessary to bolster economic growth. He wants to simplify the tax code and advance reforms on land, labor, agriculture, education, health, and electricity – which require the support of the states. A new Modi-led government would also continue efforts to upgrade infrastructure, including roads, railways, and airports.
Separately, Modi would seek to end India’s religion-based civil laws governing marriage and other issues and subsume them into a single uniform civil code – a process that has already begun at the state level.
Is Modi expected to serve just one more term? Is there a succession plan? What legacy does he want to leave behind?
It’s anybody’s guess whether another five-year term would be the last for Modi, who is 73 years old. He wants to leave behind a legacy of cementing India’s middle-income country status, raising its international stature, and correcting what the BJP believes are institutional biases against India’s Hindu population.
It does seem clear, however, that the BJP will face a succession problem when Modi steps down. The polls indicate that one in three people who vote for the BJP do so because they like Modi, not the BJP. As a result, the party might want Modi to contest the next elections in 2029 and then step down after that. While Amit Shah, the home minister, seems to be Modi’s preferred successor, he would probably face a leadership challenge from Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, and possibly from Himanta Biswa Sarma, the chief minister of Assam.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group
GZERO dives into the day's most important hard numbers in geopolitical news.
The Hard Numbers you need to know today include Turkey restricting exports to Israel, Switzerland owing citizens for climate change, France ruling that cows CAN moo at night, a Michigan judge jailing parents for son’s deadly school shooting, and the EPA limiting carcinogenic chemicals.
Turkey restricts exports to Israel
REUTERS/Umit Bektas
54: Turkey said Tuesday that it would restrict exports to Israel until there is a cease-fire and increased aid to Gaza. The move came after Israel refused to allow Turkey to air-drop aid into the territory. The restrictions will stop 54 products from being exported to Israel, and the Jewish state said it would respond by banning products from Turkey.
Switzerland owes citizens for climate change
Anne Mahrer and Rosmarie Wydler-Walti of the Swiss elderly women group Senior Women for Climate Protection, talk to journalists after the verdict of the court in the climate case Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland, at the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in Strasbourg, France, on April 9, 2024.
REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
87,000: The European Court of Human Rights in France ruled that the Swiss government had violated its citizens’ human rights by not doing enough to stop climate change. The court ordered the government to pay a group of Swiss women, all aged 64 and up, $87,000 because older women are particularly vulnerable to heat-related illnesses. While this case adds to a growing list of court wins for climate change, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on policy.
France says cows CAN moo at night
A herd of cows standing on top of a lush green field.
Photo by Stijn te Strake on Unsplash.
46: In a decisive win for Mother Nature, France has decided, once and for all, that cows are allowed to moo at night. The law, passed by France’s parliament 46-7, says that people who decide to live next to a farm, shop, bar, or restaurant cannot complain about the noise. It is meant to stop the slew of noise complaint court cases being brought by disgruntled neighbors – mostly new arrivals to the countryside – over being woken up by the sound of cows, Maurice the rooster, pond frogs, and other rural noises.
Parents sentenced for son’s school shooting
Jennifer Crumbley shoots her husband James Crumbley a glance during their sentencing hearing in the Oakland County courtroom of Cheryl Matthews on Tuesday, April 9, 2024.
USA TODAY NETWORK via Reuters Connect
10: Jennifer and James Crumbley were convicted of involuntary manslaughter for failing to prevent their teenage son from killing four students in the deadliest school shooting in Michigan’s history, and on Tuesday, they were sentenced to at least 10 years in prison. They are the first parents in the US to be convicted over the deaths caused by their child in a mass shooting.
Biden limits carcinogenic chemicals
US president Joe BidenREUTERS200: More than 200 chemical plants across the US have been ordered to limit the amount of toxic pollutants they release into the air under a new regulation announced by the Biden administration on Tuesday. The new rule from the EPA targets ethylene oxide, which is used to sterilize medical devices, and chloroprene, which is used to make rubber in footwear. Both have been classified as likely carcinogens.
Listen: Jon Batiste I was blessed to see and hear Batiste and his band at New York’s Beacon Theatre last night. If you have a chance to experience his music anywhere at any time, grab it. In the meantime, here’s a sample of his epic range. – Willis
Watch: “The Regime” Do you enjoy dark comedies and geopolitics? Then this new show on Max is probably perfect for you. It stars Kate Winslet as the paranoid, ruthless leader of an authoritarian regime in an unnamed country in Central Europe. Her character is an extraordinarily quirky hypochondriac who will stop at nothing to assume complete control of her country. Keep an eye out for fun references to real-life dictators and geopolitical issues. – John
Get dirty: During a recent visit to the Phillips Collection — a stunning art collection in Washington, DC — I saw some lovely ceramic flower wall hangings in the gift shop. As an amateur potter, I decided to try it rather than buy it — so I sat down last weekend with this YouTube video to create a basic wallflower. I fire my pieces in a kiln, but you don’t have to — air dry clay will work just as well. If you decide to have a go, send me a pic of how it turns out. – Tracy
Watch: “The Holdovers” I watched this movie with my mom to close out my week-long vacation, and it hit the happy/sad sweet spot on the head. Set at a New England prep school, a cantankerous teacher and troubled pupil are stuck on campus together over Christmas vacation. Both grow and learn lessons from each other, and all that good stuff, but the script brilliantly shows the toxic masculinity, racism, and classism of the Vietnam War era. This movie is arguably a Christmas movie, but who doesn’t need a good Christmas movie in March? It will hit even harder if you, like me, went to a lapsed military academy for high school. – Riley
Stop: And smell the flowers! It’s the best time of year in Washington, DC, with cherry blossoms and Magnolia trees in full bloom. If you’re in the area, come enjoy their pastel hues before it’s too late. Here’s a tip: Skip the crowds on the Mall and enjoy the blossoms at the National Arboretum. – Matt