Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of "The World: A Brief Introduction," joins Ian Bremmer for a discussion on US foreign policy and globalization on GZERO World.
Former Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack explains how the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the shortcomings of the U.S. meat supply chain and threatens to disrupt the entire industry, from farmers to processing plants to grocery store shelves.
June 02, 2020
DRC's new Ebola wave: On the verge of eradicating an Ebola outbreak in the country's east which began back in 2018, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has now identified a fresh wave of cases in the northwestern city of Mbandaka. The disease, which has a fatality rate of 25 – 90 percent depending on the outbreak's character, has already killed five people in recent weeks, prompting the World Health Organization to issue a grim warning that a surge of new cases could occur there in the coming months. (Ebola has an incubation period of about 21 days.) This comes as the central African country of 89 million also grapples with COVID-19 and the world's largest measles outbreak, which has killed 6,779 people there since 2019. In recent weeks, officials from the World Health Organization predicted that the DRC's deadly Ebola crisis, which has killed 2,275 people since 2018, would soon be completely vanquished.
<p><span style=""></span></p><p><strong>Russia's referendum is on again</strong><strong>: </strong>Coronavirus postponed, but couldn't cancel, Vladimir Putin's latest grand plan. Back in April, Russians were supposed to vote on constitutional amendments that would allow Putin to reset the clock on term limits and potentially serve as president until 2036. That vote <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/01/world/europe/russia-putin-coronavirus.html" target="_blank">has now been re-scheduled</a> for July 1, and Putin has good reason to want to hold it ASAP. True, his approval rating remains at 59%, and a credible poll conducted on May 20 found that 44% intended to support the new plan with just 32% opposed. (Others were undecided.) But the health and economic damage inflicted by coronavirus has cut into his popularity enough in recent months to persuade him to act now before his margin becomes embarrassingly narrow. In the end, it's virtually assured that Putin will get the results he wants – state media will see to that. Then all he has to do is keep Russians happy with his leadership for another 16 years. </p><p><strong>Netanyahu's annexation push:</strong> After staging an unlikely political victory in April, Israel's newly emboldened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-talks-annexation-with-kushner-us-said-to-want-to-slow-the-process/?utm_source=The+Daily+Edition&utm_campaign=daily-edition-2020-06-02&utm_medium=email" target="_blank">plans</a> to move ahead with contentious plans to annex part of the West Bank starting on July 1. The unilateral move, deemed illegal by most of the international community, has not been coordinated with the Palestinian Authority, who preemptively rebuffed the move and threatened to tear up all agreements with Israeli military forces, crucial to the security of both. But it's not Palestinian misgivings that are holding Netanyahu back from going full steam ahead now – it's the Trump administration. While the US initially showed enthusiasm for the annexation plan, which involves Israel folding 30 percent of the West Bank into its territory, including the Jordan Valley and settlements, <a href="https://www.axios.com/netanyahu-annexation-west-bank-plans-kushner-trump-b4bb45e3-34ae-4162-b2b5-05092cee2217.html" target="_blank">American delegates</a>, including Jared Kushner who pioneered President Trump's Mideast peace plan, as well as Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have since waffled on the annexation issue. The political fallout is reverberating throughout the region. Jordan, for example, which has enjoyed a cold peace with Israel for decades, threatened to reassess the peace accord if Netanyahu pushes ahead with the annexation issue. </p><p><span style=""></span></p><p><br/><span></span></p>
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Hard Numbers: Uganda's lost tourism dollars, Mexico's domestic violence problem, racial inequality in the US, Wuhan's asymptomatic carriers
June 02, 2020
1.6 billion: Uganda's president said pandemic-related travel bans could cost his country $1.6 billion in tourism revenues this year. At the same time, with many Ugandan emigrants out of work in other countries hit hard by coronavirus, Uganda risks losing much of the $1.3 billion that they send home every year in remittances.
<p><strong>300:</strong> After a marathon testing scheme in which health authorities tested 9.9 million Wuhan residents for COVID-19 in around 10 days, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-wuhan/no-new-covid-sufferers-300-asymptomatic-after-wuhan-wide-tests-idUSKBN23915R" target="_blank">300 asymptomatic virus carriers</a> were identified in that city. No one was found to be exhibiting symptoms of the disease.<br/></p><p><strong>26,000:</strong> Mexican authorities say they received <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/world/americas/violence-women-mexico-president.html" target="_blank">26,000 reports</a> of violence against women in the month of March alone, a monthly record. When asked about the surge in violence as a result of coronavirus lockdowns that forced women to stay at home with abusive partners, Mexico's president said that 90 percent of those calls "are fake."<br/></p><p><strong>17:</strong> In the United States, minorities have been hit hardest by coronavirus cases and deaths, but now the economic crisis caused by lockdowns is being felt disproportionately by black Americans. Between February and April, almost <a href="https://www.axios.com/one-six-black-workers-lost-jobs-february-april-f6f8a198-b63e-48b6-8add-a113b24771a6.html" target="_blank">17 percent of all black workers</a> lost their jobs, compared to 14 percent of all white workers who are now jobless.</p>
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Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
First of all, from the global perspective, taking what we have here in New York City, obviously the biggest problem is America's leadership, America's ability to lead by example, which has been eroding now really for, you know, certainly a decade plus, but much more quickly now.
<p>And, you know, you can say it's all about President Trump, but my view is it's a lot deeper and more structural than that. The response that we have had to coronavirus has been so divided and so divisive and the response to George Floyd and his murder. And I mean, not premeditated murder, but nonetheless, very clearly murder from this policeman with other officers standing around as witnesses. And we've now all seen the video. We've seen the transcript. We've seen nationwide demonstrations. And in literally dozens of cities across the country, we've seen violence. We've seen looting. And, you know, how do you tell other countries that America is a democracy to be emulated when this is what is happening on the ground in the United States and this level of division, this level of racial injustice, the lack of rallying around the flag?<br/></p><p>I mean, I will say that pretty much every American understands that those police officers should be punished. I don't think there's real division on that. In fact, I saw only four percent of Americans in one poll disagreed that the police officer who was kneeling on George Floyd's neck should be let go, should go free. I mean, four percent is functionally the entire country agrees on that. But in terms of who to blame for all of this and whether the ire should be at the lockdowns or reopening the economy, should it be at Black Lives Matter or blue lives matter? Do we care more about health care workers as opposed to police officers? What are the priorities? What should they be in the United States? Does free market capitalism, as America presently employs it, function properly for the American society? Does representative democracy function properly for American society around the world? The answer is increasingly no. We would not want to import that model. What does the United States stand for? Increasingly, a lot of Americans don't know and certainly Americans don't agree. </p><p>And it's painful to see the Chinese government calling out American racism as they systematically dismantle the agreement for Hong Kong to experience autonomy and democracy in its own territory. The inability to have freedom of press, freedom of expression, freedom of dissent in Hong Kong, while the Chinese are able to say the Americans or worse. The Russians throwing doctors out of windows, the way they're treating frontline workers who are letting people know about just how much the government is lying about coronavirus and running laps around the Americans on racism. The Iranian foreign minister taking his own red pen, stealing from us a little bit. Foreign Minister Zarif, who I know very well and is one of the moderates in Iran, but nonetheless, writing about how taking Secretary of state Pompeo's words against the corruption and injustice in Iranian society and turning it around to focus on American racism. </p><p>I want to be very clear that the that the American political system as damaged, as eroded, as delegitimized as its institutions are, you cannot compare it to the lack of human rights, to the systematic corruption and the inability of citizens to have a social contract, to have a voice in Russia, in China, in Iran. You cannot compare these systems. And yet the ability of the United States, which has for decades, even centuries, promoted itself as having the system that all others should emulate, the beacon on the Hill, well, there's an awful lot of turnabout is fair play. There's an awful lot of people that are very, very happy the Americans are facing such difficulties deeply in our own society today. </p><p>And that is that is indeed very painful to see, to give such dictatorships as Russia, now, just announcing today that on July 1st, they will have their constitutional referendum where you can turn out and vote and allow Putin to be president until 2036. And why? Why even bother with the election? We know what the outcome is going to be. There's no point. They don't bother with elections widespread in China. Why bother in Russia? They don't bother. I mean, they have elections in Iran, but you can only vote for people that have already been preselected for you by the Guardians Council, by the clerics that actually do run the country in Iran. In the United States, we have an election many people say are rigged, we don't know who the next president's going to be, come November 3rd. There's a lot to play for. That's not true in these dictatorships. </p><p>There is no ability for someone like me to get online and say that we disagree with something that's happening in our country, which is, after all, what patriotism is all about in a country like the United States. It's the ability to not only love your country, but also dissent with it when people in government are doing something fundamentally wrong, that we know we disagree with. You can't do that in Russia or in China or in Iran. </p><p>The fact that so many Americans are resorting to violence because they feel like they have no opportunity. And to be clear, the looters are, of course, a very small piece of the population and they're not supported by a majority. But nonetheless, this is happening in so many places. There is so much anger. The black community in the United States is a community that not only has the highest unemployment, not only has the worst access to health care, not only has the worst treatment at the hands of police, and the greatest incarceration rates, and the lowest education levels, but also has experienced the most personal danger on the back of coronavirus, dying at much higher rates, precisely for all of those intrinsic reasons for inequality. And so, then when you see a black man killed by a police officer, videotaped by a bystander and no action taken against that officer in the court system until there are demonstrations and riots across the country, you know, something is fundamentally wrong. </p><p>Do I feel like that's going to get addressed right now? Well, it's a hell of a lot harder to for it to be addressed when we're experiencing the first depression of our lifetimes, when unemployment is at 25%, when over 40 million Americans have declared themselves newly unemployed in the past two months and when we're going to experience six to eight percent economic contraction, this year. In other words, bad time for a crisis. Bad time for this kind of social discontent. Bad time for the most divisive president in my lifetime. Bad time for an election in the United States. We'll get through it. </p><p>And for people that say it's scary, I certainly have to say I don't think it's scary. And of course, that's part of the problem. It's not scary for me because people in the knowledge economy have our jobs safe. We don't have to worry about where the next paycheck is coming from. We don't have to worry about our own safety. No one is coming after me on the streets right now or coming at my house right now, which in a sense makes it worse. It's precisely the fact that it's not actually a scary time for the average American. It's a scary time for the underclass and the working class who have been forgotten by the political leaders and the elites for decades now. And if those of us that are in the elites can't recognize that, admit that and do something about it, it is only going to get worse. </p><p>So, I mean, for all of those that say, oh, you criticize the United States, you can leave. No, that's kind of the whole point. It's the reason that someone like me would never leave is because the opportunities that have been afforded to me have been so extraordinary. It truly is the American dream. It has been the best country in the world. And yet those opportunities, all the kids I grew up with in the projects didn't have them, didn't have the mother who pushed them and did everything possible, and they're still there. And today, the opportunities that I had 40 years ago, a lot of kids even in my position, would have a much harder time today. The inequality is a lot greater. </p><p>So, I mean, it's not about someone like me going to Canada. I love it here. It's fantastic for me in the United States and it's not getting any worse in an environment of coronavirus, and depression and race riots. But it is for so many hundreds of thousands and millions of Americans in this society today. And it's getting worse for them. It's going to get a lot worse for them. </p><p>So, I hope that's something to think about. I'll certainly, as long as I have a platform, I'll certainly keep talking about it. And I hope that makes me more of a patron, not less. I think it does. I think my mother would think that. And always happy to hear your comments. I hope everyone's doing well. Fight the good fight. Avoid people, wear masks. Please if you're going to protest, socially distance, right? Yes, I do care about that because the pandemic is still out there. It's a lot worse if you are indoors than you're outdoors. So, I guess from that perspective, you know, maybe the outdoor protests won't lead to so many super spreader events. Those will mostly come from churches and the rest. But I mean, we do have to remember, you got to walk and chew gum at the same time. You got to deal with an economic crisis, a social crisis and a health crisis. None of them are going away. And we got to keep that in mind. See you guys, very soon. </p>
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For almost a week now, protests have surged across American cities in response to the videotaped police killing of George Floyd, an unarmed black man detained for allegedly using a counterfeit bill to buy cigarettes.
Alongside largely peaceful demonstrations against police brutality and systemic racial injustice, there have been instances of looting, arson, and aggressive police violence. Several journalists have been arrested.
<p>In many ways, the coronavirus pandemic and recession, which have disproportionately affected black and Latino Americans, have added to the anger on the streets.</p><p>The central question of whether, and how, a deeply divided country can make progress towards racial justice can't be answered yet. But here are a few observations.</p><p><strong>The scale and immediacy of these protests is unprecedented.</strong> Never before have protests in America against racial injustice gone both national and viral this quickly. For previous protests at this scale – whether the upheavals of the <a href="https://www.gzeromedia.com/read/1968" target="_blank">late 1960s </a>or <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1992/05/03/us/riots-los-angeles-new-york-region-despite-scattered-violence-most-protests-are.html" target="_blank">those that followed</a> the Rodney King case acquittals in 1992 – you have to reach back to a period well before social media was around to capture injustices on video and to fuel further outrage. Today, everywhere that police and protesters meet, there is a flurry of smartphone cameras and an audience waiting for the footage.</p><p><strong>Will the protests change the 2020 election? </strong>The protests are about issues that transcend any single ballot or president. And as some activists have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vy9io6VEt58" target="_blank">pointed out</a>, the policies that shape policing are made at the local level, and demand local accountability.</p><p>But with a national election just five months from tomorrow, the upheaval and its aftershocks will surely echo into the campaigns. Will they help Trump? Or his opponent, Joe Biden? The impact either way might be smaller than you think.</p><p>To make a difference in the outcome, the protests would need to change many minds either about whom to vote for or whether to vote at all. But this election is shaping up to be mainly a referendum on Trump(ism), and views of him are largely set at this point. In fact, one of the curious features of his presidency, tumultuous as it's been, is the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo" target="_blank">uncanny stability of his approval ratings </a>in the low to mid 40s.</p><p>Given the broader political polarization over the protests themselves – when Trump's supporters look at them they see destructive threats to law and order, while his critics tend to see them as justified civic actions radicalized by a violent police response and exploited by provocateurs – it's hard to see many minds changing.</p><p><strong>How is it playing abroad?</strong> Not so well for the US. Solidarity protests have erupted outside US consulates and embassies in London, Berlin, and Milan. Meanwhile, several authoritarian countries that have recently gotten an earful from Washington over their own repression have gleefully shot back at the White House: Turkey's president <a href="https://twitter.com/RTErdogan/status/1266125721128316931?s=20" target="_blank">decried</a> the US' "racist and fascist" police, Iran's supreme leader let off a <a href="https://twitter.com/es_Khamenei/status/1267058214409048065" target="_blank">tweet </a>in Spanish about the perils of being black in America, while the country's ultraconservative former president allowed himself a <a href="https://twitter.com/Ahmadinejad1956/status/1266442131763331072" target="_blank">provocative Tupac quote</a>. China, for its part, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/george-floyd-protests-rage-chinese-officials-state-media-accuse-us-hypocrisy-over-hong-kong-1507880" target="_blank">had a field day</a> in light of recent criticism of its crackdown on Hong Kong.</p><p><strong>Meanwhile, Russia and China</strong> seem to be doing their best <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/01/russia-and-china-target-us-protests-on-social-media-294315" target="_blank">to further inflame</a> political tensions over the protests – not that the US needs much help on that score at the moment.</p>
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On the latest edition of World In 60 Seconds, Ian Bremmer brings an extra-long analysis to pressing issues:
Pandemic, economic depression and now mass protests. What's next for America?
I'm not surprised by this level of dissent publicly, given how long social inequality has persisted and how much worse it's being made by coronavirus. You're going to see a lot of people on the streets because we've got 25% unemployment right now. A lot of people are going to go back to work, but a lot aren't. It's heading towards the summer, people are soon coming out of lockdown and may feel safer in terms of the pandemic, especially in NY and in LA where the caseload has gone down. We also have very deep divisions.
<p>Trump was at 42% approval when we had lowest unemployment. He's at 42% approval now when we have global depression. This says a lot about how divided the country is. This has been on the back of the African-American community. Blacks have been hardest hit in the United States in terms of inequality and now in terms of coronavirus too. How many are dying, how many can't socially distance, how many have jobs that have gone away or require work in unhealthy situations? The Blue Lives Matter contingent, the working class white folk, also feel disenfranchised, their wages are flat and they don't feel secure. This is a massively polarized group and there is less space in their center than before. </p><p>With election coming right now in the US, you're probably going to see violent protests for longer. Keep in mind that the media focuses on the violence and riots. If you watched last night, the peaceful protests didn't make news. Instead, it's who broke windows, hit police, got arrested. It's the minority of people out there, but it's what the news and social media cover. With all of this and with a president who understands that the way he wins is not by reaching out to black Americans, but by ensuring that his base shows up in larger numbers, implies much greater division at a time of great economic disarray and dislocation. The next few months are going to be really ugly in the US.</p><p><strong>With inequality protests going global, where does that leave coronavirus and social distancing?</strong></p><p>I'd say be less oriented towards panic around this. The super spreader incidents we've seen in a nightclub in South Korea, a bunch of churches, and a chorus group in Seattle, all have a commonality: people are singing. In Wisconsin, they found one outdoor demonstration that led to fifteen people being found positive. That's a lot less than the 50% outside of Seattle, Washington, who were socially distanced, but inside a room singing for three hours. Here in NYC, I saw a large-scale demonstration, about 70% to 80% were wearing masks. There was a decent amount of social distancing, nothing like what we saw at the Ozarks. Most people that are demonstrating about Black Lives Matter and police brutality don't have a thing about wearing mask. Most people that were demonstrating the lockdowns, there is a political statement in not wearing a mask. My hope, based on some science, is that relatively short-term protests outdoors with many people wearing masks, probably won't get you the super spreader incidents that we have seen. </p><p>Having said that, the protests grow, and you get a lot of people protesting in close quarters and going up against the police. The police weren't any better at wearing masks last night than the protesters were in terms of numbers. You'd be more concerned about that. </p><p><strong>Hong Kong banned the Tiananmen Square vigil for the first time, coming up on June 4th. What does that say for its autonomy? </strong></p><p>They're saying they banned it because of concerns of coronavirus in Hong Kong, one of the most effective paces in the world at containing the virus. Doesn't seem to be the priority for the legislature. They've been trying to work on making it illegal for people to speak badly of the Chinese mainland. I think it's a bit of misdirection. It's about wanting to assert more authority over Hong Kong. It probably says that Macao and Hong Kong are not, not going to be allowed to protest Tiananmen Square going forward. Let's see what happens with Macao going forward. The United States has put the Chinese and Hong Kong on notice, but the level of sanction is less than it could be and not close to removing special trade status. </p>
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June 01, 2020
Asia's manufacturing is still sick: Hailed for successfully managing the public health challenges of the pandemic, some of Asia's exporting powerhouses are now coming to terms with the economic impact of the crisis. A series of surveys released Monday show that the continent's crucial manufacturing sector took another hit last month as global trade continued to contract. While China's manufacturing activity expanded in May, showing some signs of a modest economic comeback, some of the region's export heavyweights have suffered their sharpest economic downturns in over a decade, as new export orders from their main trade partners remain slim. South Korea, for example, has been hailed for its apt management of the health crisis, but its exports have now slumped for three months straight, with shipments contracting 23.7 per cent year-on-year in May. Similarly, Taiwan has recorded just 7 deaths from the virus, but its manufacturing activity fell again in May from the previous month, while the IMF predicts that the economic bloc made up of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam will grow at -0.6 percent this year, down from its earlier estimate of +4.8 percent. Analysts now say that the region's economic rebound could take way longer than previously predicted.
<p><strong>Finland feels Russia's absence:</strong> While Finland's entire economy is reeling amid government-mandated lockdowns, the people of South Karelia, the picturesque Finnish border region that abuts Russia, are under particular stress as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/finland-in-pain-as-border-closure-blocks-russian-tourists/2020/06/01/78ddb0f2-a3da-11ea-898e-b21b9a83f792_story.html" target="_blank">border closures</a> keep out Russian tourists who are an economic lifeline for the area. Last year, some two million Russians visited, infusing cash into the lake district's tourist-dependent retail and agricultural sectors. But as <a href="https://time.com/5836890/russia-coronavirus/" target="_blank">Russia </a>continues to grapple with one of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in the world, the Finland-Russia border is unlikely to reopen before the usually-lucrative summer tourist season – and could even stay shuttered for the rest of the year. Experts now say that for every month that the border is closed, local Finnish businesses could lose an estimated 25 million euros, shedding 900 jobs in total. Indeed, it's the worst crisis to hit the area since the economic turmoil caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union some 30 years ago. Finland's tourism industry is trying to boost domestic travel and lure tourists from elsewhere in Europe, but whether this will offset the loss from Russia this summer remains to be seen.</p><p><strong>Venezuela's pain</strong>: Venezuela faced a severe economic crisis well before coronavirus arrived, but COVID has now inflicted a new degree of pain. The country's <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/world/americas/venezuela-gasoline-shortage.html" target="_blank">fuel shortage</a> not only leaves drivers walking to work, stalled in traffic, in long lines hoping pumps will contain enough liquid to partially refill empty tanks, or sucking gasoline through plastic tubing to siphon it from one vehicle to another. It now also leaves coffins containing the remains of COVID-19 victims sitting in parked hearses that are unable to reach cemeteries because they have no fuel. It's an irony made even more bitter by the reality that Venezuela has the world's largest proven reserves of crude oil.</p>
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Hard Numbers: Washington sends drugs to Brazil, Moscow reopens, and what do Malawians fear more than COVID?
June 01, 2020
2 million: As part of a joint research project between Washington and Brasilia, the US delivered two million doses of the drug hydroxychloroquine to Brazil. Both President Trump and Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro have repeatedly touted the benefits of the drug, typically used to treat malaria, for COVID-19 patients. Medical professionals have warned that the evidence is inconclusive and that the drug could actually be harmful.
<p><span style="background-color: initial;"><strong>47:</strong></span><span style="background-color: initial;"> Americans </span><span style="background-color: initial;">aren't</span><span style="background-color: initial;"> thrilled with their own government's coronavirus response, with just </span><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/05/21/americans-give-higher-ratings-to-south-korea-and-germany-than-u-s-for-dealing-with-coronavirus/" target="_blank">47 percent</a> <span style="background-color: initial;">of respondents telling a recent Pew poll that the US has done a good or excellent job managing the </span><span style="background-color: initial;">emergency situation</span><span style="background-color: initial;">. Compare that with 66 percent who believe that both Germany and South Korea have managed the crisis well.</span><br/></p><p><span style="background-color: initial;"><strong>81: </strong></span><span style="background-color: initial;">An overwhelming number of Malawians </span><span style="background-color: initial;">– </span><a href="https://twitter.com/BBCAfrica/status/1267421049349722112" target="_blank">81 percent</a><span style="background-color: initial;">– </span><span style="background-color: initial;">say they are more worried about hunger than about contracting the coronavirus. Drought-induced food-shortages in sub-Saharan Africa have forced some 6.5 million Malawians onto food aid in recent years.</span><br/></p><span style="background-color: initial;"></span><p><span style="background-color: initial;"><strong>9:</strong></span><span style="background-color: initial;"> Moscow has lifted lockdown restrictions, allowing residents to visit parks and shopping centers for the first time in </span><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52875568?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world&link_location=live-reporting-story" target="_blank">9 weeks</a><span style="background-color: initial;">. President Putin says the country has passed the peak of the crisis, but health experts say Russia has </span><a href="https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/05/21/russias-covid-19-outbreak-is-far-worse-than-the-kremlin-admits" target="_blank">one of the world's worst outbreaks, </a><span style="background-color: initial;">and its official count of 4,800 COVID deaths is </span><span style="background-color: initial;">likely a</span><span style="background-color: initial;"> gross undercount. </span><br/></p>
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