Analysis
Europe is not fighting the Iran war, but it's already paying for it
Nearly a month ago, the US and Israel started a war with Iran. But one continent, which wants very little to do with the war, is uniquely impacted: Europe.
Nearly a month ago, the US and Israel started a war with Iran. But one continent, which wants very little to do with the war, is uniquely impacted: Europe.
As the war intensifies, chances of a clean exit from Iran are slipping further out of reach for President Trump. Brookings Institution's Thomas Wright joins Ian Bremmer to unpack the crisis and outline possible endgame scenarios.
Ian Bremmer sits down with Thomas Wright, Brookings Institution fellow and former Senior Director at the US National Security Council, to unpack the deepening war in Iran and the divergent strategies shaping it.
Listen: Ian Bremmer sits down with Thomas Wright, Brookings Institution fellow and former Senior Director at the US National Security Council, to unpack the deepening war in Iran and the divergent strategies shaping it.
What are the possible outcomes for the widening conflict in Iran? What began as a dramatic opening strike has evolved into a far more complex war, with Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran all pursuing different aims. Wright argues this isn’t simply about degrading military capability; it’s about competing endgames that may pull the region in unpredictable directions.
As Wright explains, the United States is hoping for a pragmatic partner inside Iran, while Israel pushes for full regime change. “Trump couldn’t care less if Larijani runs Iran. The Israelis do… They’re going to go full bore for regime change,” he says. At the same time, efforts to fragment the country risk creating “a much bigger problem… a Syria civil war on steroids.”
The conversation also examines how other global players are responding. Europe has been muted, trying to accommodate the US, while China and Russia tread carefully, balancing economic and strategic interests without directly confronting Washington. Wright also discusses domestic implications, including the Pentagon’s evolving relationship with Silicon Valley and how frontier technologies like AI are intersecting with national security concerns.
Looking ahead, Wright outlines both best-and worst-case scenarios — from the emergence of a more legitimate leadership to the specter of fragmentation that could intensify regional instability. With no clear exit ramp in sight, this conversation explores what might come next and why the endgame of this war remains so uncertain.
Donald Trump is polling underwater on the economy in a critical midterm election year. What can he do to change voters’ perceptions?
The US has paused Russian oil sanctions in a bid to stabilize energy markets rocked by the war with Iran. Administration officials stress that it’s a “tailored” measure, applying only to oil already loaded onto tankers, but it’s still a gift to Russia, which has already been clocking an extra $150 million daily in oil revenues since the war began.
Ian Bremmer sits down with Thomas Wright, Brookings Institution fellow and former Senior Director at the US National Security Council, to unpack the deepening war in Iran and the divergent strategies shaping it.
(very) strongly worded stuff. #PUPPETREGIME
Microsoft, Europol, and industry partners took coordinated action to disrupt Tycoon 2FA, a major phishing‑as‑a‑service operation designed to bypass multifactor authentication. Active since 2023, the service fueled large‑scale online impersonation, enabling fraud, data theft, and disruptions across sectors, including healthcare and education. Acting under a US court order, the coalition seized hundreds of domains powering Tycoon 2FA’s infrastructure — underscoring the need for global, public‑private cooperation that is essential to counter industrialized cybercrime and protect digital trust.
Read the full blog here.
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Ian Bremmer is President and Founder of GZERO Media. He hosts the weekly digital and broadcast show, GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, where he explains the key global stories of the moment, sits down for an in-depth conversation with the newsmakers and thought leaders shaping our world, and takes your questions.
Ian is also the President and Founder of GZERO Media's parent company, Eurasia Group, the leading global political risk research and consulting firm. Ian is a New York Times bestselling author of eleven books including "Us vs Them: The Failure of Globalism," "Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World," "The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?" and "Superpower: Three Choices for America's Role in the World." His latest book, "The Power of Crisis," draws lessons from global challenges of the past 100 years—including the pandemic—to show how we can respond to three great crises unfolding over the next decade.
Ian earned a master's degree and a doctorate in political science from Stanford University, where he went on to become the youngest-ever national fellow at the Hoover Institution. Although he might not admit it, Ian's secretly jealous of his puppet's interviews with the world's most powerful leaders.
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Justin graduated from Yale University with a BS in Computer Science. He lives in New York with his wife and two children.

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