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Trump indictment would make GOP nomination more likely | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Would a Trump indictment ruin his re-election efforts or reignite his base?

I think everyone out there on the Republican side thinks that an indictment makes it more likely that Trump gets the nomination. When even Mike Pence, who at this point is trying to really differentiate himself from Trump, is out there saying that an indictment would be politically motivated. It means that everyone understands that they cannot back away from Trump on this issue. Gives him more space, gives him more headlines, helps fuel the politics of grievance, makes him more likely to get the nomination.

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Silicon Valley Bank collapse isn't the same as 2008 financial crisis | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

With the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, is it 2008 all over again?

There's one very clear way that it's not, which is that it's not a big enough crisis for people to come together. And remember, after 2008, everyone understood that we needed to do everything possible to get the markets functioning, get trust in the system again, and avoid a great depression. Nobody's saying that right now. And it's not just because the US political system is more divided, it's also because people feel like it's fine to go after the "woke" banks. It's fine to go after the Trump era deregulation around the medium size banks. And everyone can point at their favorite villain while you don't really need to do a hell of a lot beyond the bazooka that Secretary Yellen threw at SVB and Signature Bank this weekend. So no, in that regard, it's very much not 2008 all over again. In some ways I'm happy about that and other ways I'm not.

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China pushes back on US containment & confrontation | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

How will the US respond to China's saber-rattling?

Well, I mean, in part, China's saber-rattling is a response to what the United States has already been doing. In particular, significant export sanctions that are not really about competition. They're really about containment of China in some of the top areas of economic development, technological development that they are trying mightily to be world leaders at. There is a level of direct confrontation that the Americans are pushing on and the Chinese are now increasingly public. I thought that it was interesting that Xi Jinping decided to make those statements about the United States directly. He usually defers to the so-called wolf warriors, some of the members of the press so this is getting chippier and the ability to maintain and manage a calm and engaged, interdependent US- China relationship is getting harder. There's, as they say, downward pressure on that call going forward.

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Can UK overcome economic challenges post-Northern Ireland trade deal? | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Will the UK finally move past Brexit now that a Northern Ireland trade deal has been resolved?

Oh, it's only been, what, six years. My God. And Brexit finally concluded now that Prime Minister Sunak has taken on his own Conservative Party and said, "No, we're just going to finally move on this." And people are sick of the economic challenges, that's, in part, why Truss got washed out so quickly as former PM, and it's also why he had the space to get this done. It means that you're not worried about the so-called hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, and therefore, between the UK and the EU, and it means that the Brits can move on. But moving on, of course, still means that they no longer have integration with the world's largest common market, and that means that their performance economically will continue to drag below all of the rest of Europe and the United States, and that's really unfortunate. It's a massive own goal.

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Putin Pulling Out of START Can Further Break US-Russia Relationship | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

How big of a deal is Russia pulling out of New START?

Well, this is of course is the nuclear agreement that the Americans and others have already been accusing the Russians not of being in compliance with. The nature, of course, of the US-Russia relationship right now is completely broken. There's no high level engagement or diplomacy. It is notable that Putin said in his annual State of the Union speech, the one that he essentially canceled last year, that he is suspending Russian participation in START, but not withdrawing. I don't think it's a nothingburger. I think it matters because generally nuclear temperatures have been going up over the past months, but this is not a particularly large issue.

Is China's potential support of Russia in Ukraine a "red line" for the West?

Yes, this is a much bigger issue. We are talking about a peace deal that the Chinese are saying that they're going to announce in short order. President Xi planning a big speech on February 24th, which is the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion. That's unprecedented for China to suddenly be taking a leadership role, a public leadership role, on an issue that is not of primary national security concern to the Chinese self.

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Munich Security Conference 2023 top priority: war in Europe | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Will Russia-Ukraine dominate the conversations at this year's Munich Security Conference?

I think absolutely it will be not just the topic of conversation that's keeping everyone anxious, but it will be the top priority. Again, it's in Europe. 50 members of a US congressional delegation showing up. That's a record like by a large number. I'm kind of shocked that many people will be there. The Russians of course won't be there, but the top priority is a war in Europe. Everyone's deeply worried about it as they should. It's the largest risk out there by a factor of magnitude. Balloon gate is not close.

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State of the Union Address: Kickoff tTo a Campaign Speech | World In :60 | GZERO Media

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

What's your reaction to Biden's State of the Union address?

Well, I mean, a couple things. First of all, even longer than last year's. He has the longest State of the Unions of any president in memory. And he is getting old. He's 80 years old. The first half of the speech, he came across as very strong, pretty compelling. Second half of the speech, he was obviously getting tired. He was having difficulty with some of the sentences. That doesn't show incredibly well. More importantly, has a lot of domestic wins that he's focusing on. This feels like a kickoff to a campaign speech. I fully expect him to announce his run for the presidency formally in the next couple of months, and I think pretty much everyone on the Democrats side does as well.

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