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World
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will the US-Israel relationship be affected by the US backing a Gaza cease-fire resolution at the UN?
Well, it was high drama yesterday when Prime Minister Netanyahu said he was going to immediately suspend an Israeli delegation that was going to visit the United States on the back of that decision.Very unhappy that the Americans decided to allow it to go ahead and abstain as opposed to by themselves vetoing. And keep in mind that all every other permanent and nonpermanent member of the Security Council has voted in favor. A lot of US allies there. And you know, that would seem to be a big deal, except Yoav Gallant, Minister of Defense, still stayed in the United States and had a series of very productive and high level meetings with his counterparts in the US. And there are still negotiations proceeding that are constructive between the US and Israel and Qatar to engage with Hamas and try to get a temporary cease-fire done and a bunch of hostages released also called for immediate release by the UN Security Council resolution. So I think there's a lot more drama here than there is actual impact on the US-Israel relationship. And certainly a lot of pressure that continues to mount on a very unpopular Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at home.
Will there be international consequences from the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse in Baltimore?
I mean, it wasn't terrorism. It was an accident, though. I mean, I guess if this was Russia, they'd say the Ukrainians were responsible for it. It is a major port on the Eastern seaboard that looks like it is going to be a real problem to get in and out of. And that means supply chain challenges, especially in terms of cars, millions of which go through Baltimore every year. But, you know, the United States has an economy that's doing quite well. A growth is significant, but not over whelming. And otherwise supply chain is working around the United States for imports. So I suspect that if there's an economic cost here, it's going to be relatively small and short lived.
What message is Russia sending by their public display of torture against accused terrorists?
Well, they're showing that they have a complete indifference to the well-being of any human being. They're also, of course, displaying that the Russian state will go after you with its full force if you are seen to be an enemy of theirs. That is true in terms of the way they treat opposition journalists and politicians. But it's also true in the way they treat suspected terrorists. And they, of course, have forced confessions. I suspect they do have strong evidence, given what we've seen of that over the last few days. But still, I mean, in a system of rule of law, you are innocent until proven guilty in Russia. Of course you are guilty when the government says you are guilty, in particular, when the absolute leader says you're guilty and then you no longer have rights and the state can do with you as they will. We saw that with Mr. Prigozhin, We saw that with Mr. Navalny. And now we're seeing that with four suspected and likely but not yet proven terrorists.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will the new security law affect all aspects of life in Hong Kong?
Takes away small remaining vestiges of political independence, none of which people expected were going to be maintained for long. The Chinese government really fast tracked this, which did, you know, antagonize a lot of people on the island. But at the same time, I mean, they're already basically shut down, you know, free Democratic media and made it impossible to engage in demonstrations that were seen as difficult or upsetting to the mainland. I mean, Hong Kong is no longer a bridge into mainland China. It is now a component of a greater Chinese economy. And to the extent that economy starts turning around and doing better, Hong Kong will do well. It's not right now, so it's not performing quite as effectively. And, you know, a lot of the expats have already gotten out of Dodge.
Is Haiti becoming a failed state?
Does look that way. I mean, we certainly don't yet have any significant policing on the ground, nor do we yet have any international peacekeepers. And even if we have them, the historical experience with them has been checkered at best. There's no effective leadership in the country. So interesting, you know, they share an island with a border right down the middle with the Dominican Republic, and the DR is one of the most effective economies in Latin America today. Just goes to show you that governance really, really matters. So painful to see this happening and so close to the United States. American willingness to put a little bit of money in, sure, but to do anything significant to try to create stability. Not at all.
Will Trump's difficulty paying his legal judgments hurt his campaign?
You would think it would, because, you know, historically, the United States has the most expensive and long electoral campaign in the world. And if you don't have money, you're not supposed to run it very effectively. But of course, Trump also is unique in his ability to get just dominate the media cycle for free. He makes headlines and he lives in everybody's head. And in that regard, it's not as important for him to have a huge amount of cash. He's also former president. And, you know, having a former president, a sitting president running against each other, it's not like he's a non incumbent that doesn't have brand recognition. That's also important for him. But at the margins, yeah, I don't think it's as important as, you know, how people feel about abortion or immigration or the economy or democracy. But is it on the top ten? Yeah, probably the top ten, may almost crack top five.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Four years since the US declared COVID a national emergency, how did it permanently reshape the world?
Well, a couple of things. First, it meant that US-China relations got worse, not better. The World Health Organization, the one global organization meant to deal with pandemics, got delegitimized. This was not a crisis that led to greater cooperation. It led to greater mistrust and greater polarization, in part because it wasn't a big enough crisis. Thankfully, we had vaccines really fast, and it also turned out that COVID really affected mostly the super elderly and those with serious preexisting conditions. All of that allowed the geopolitical rifts that already exist to get worse. One good thing, aside from the fact that technology really works, is that the Europeans got stronger on the back of this crisis. They now have more coordinated capabilities to respond to health crises than they did before the pandemic hit. And that has been the EU response to a lot of crises recently, Brexit, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, you name it.
As the US House goes after TikTok, does it speak to a broader US-China battle?
Well, it speaks to significant mistrust between the two countries. Espionage by the Chinese against the United States, by the way, that goes both ways of course. The Americans just aren't concerned about US espionage into China. Also, the fact that the Chinese don't allow Western social media companies to have access to the Chinese population and data. So no one should be all that surprised that the Americans are interested in forcing ByteDance to spin off TikTok. Having said that, the Chinese are pretty unhappy about it and have said that they're not going to spin it off. We'll see if their bark is equivalent to their bite. Assuming this passes in short order in House and Senate. Biden has said that he would sign it and then there's the broader question of does it undermine what has been a pretty strong effort by both the Americans and Chinese to communicate more thoroughly in the relationship and stabilize the baseline so that we don't have conflict that scales out of control and that has worked reasonably well since the APEC summit back in San Francisco in November? But that doesn't mean it will hold if the Americans start throwing more punches. On balance, I think forcing China to spin off TikTok is a reasonable thing for the Americans to do, but it will be one more straw on the camel's back. Let's see what happens in terms of Chinese response.
Finally, Princess Kate and the photoshop-fail heard around the world!
Big deal? Well, look, I mean, I am someone, as you know, that tries to keep a much lower profile than Princess Kate. So I don't like to necessarily share all the things that I'm doing around the world. But, I mean, you know, given everyone focusing on Kate's photo, I will share that in the last few days, I was there with Sweden, of course, and the prime minister, who I know well when they formally joined NATO. There was, of course, also the State of the Union, which, you know, I was doing live commentary on and right there from the gallery. But you probably are surprised that I was also right behind the scenes at the Oscars. I don't usually show for that. And it's not because I don't wear a tie, but they gave me dispensation. And also let me bring Moose, which is very important. Don't fall asleep on Princess Kate, right? I mean, you know, she has a hard enough time and she's got to distract away from King Charles. We don't know what's going on with him either. We don't really care. At least I don't.
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Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Any surprises from Super Tuesday
Yeah, I was surprised that Nikki Haley got Vermont. Honestly, I thought that she'd get swept by Trump. Though Vermont is a tiny, tiny little state. It still counts, but she's still out. She's, of course, suspended her campaign and that is not a surprise. And Biden beat undecided and Dean Phillips, who is basically the equivalent of undecided, pretty decisively in all of his states. So, yes, unless something happens health-wise to either of the candidates over the next months, it is Biden, and it is Trump, and that is it. And we've known that for a good long while now. It doesn't feel so super. It's not what everybody wants, but we still have months and months and months in the world's longest and most expensive election in the world. Yet one more reason why the United States is the most powerful and super dysfunctional democracy.
Is the Red Sea turning into a Houthi stronghold?
I wouldn't say that the Houthis are significantly degraded in their military capabilities by the United States and the UK over the last month now. They are not getting the same level of support, intelligence wise, from the Iranians that they were in previous months. So they are still getting the weapons. Some of those weapons are getting interdicted by the United States and allies. But they are still engaging in strikes in the Red Sea. And that, of course, is making it harder for ships to get through. And it's increasing costs on commodities and it's disrupting supply chains. That's where we are. That's likely to continue. But again, I wouldn't call it a stronghold. The one country that's really hurt in all of this is Sudan, which is experiencing the worst humanitarian crisis in the world right now. And it's made worse by the fact that you can't get any aid through the Red Sea because the Houthis are blocking it.
As the Israel-Hamas war nears the five-month mark, is a cease-fire likely?
Well, Hamas is demanding a permanent cease-fire as part of the terms of getting an agreement with Israel that is absolutely not on the table. Can we get a short-term cease-fire, a six-week cease-fire? I am still optimistic, but I'm telling you, it is getting more challenging. And if Netanyahu is really angry at Benny Gantz for being more solicitous with the Americans and the Brits, and traveling to those countries to engage in diplomacy when Netanyahu told him not to go and when he told the Israeli embassy in those countries not to support him, the potential that you end up not getting a deal because of the Israeli dysfunction in their governance and Hamas continuing to kick the can and put ideas on the table that are absolutely unacceptable to the Israelis, that makes it harder. So I do think that the potential is all falls apart, is creeping up. But if you make me bet by next week, I still think on balance we get a deal. Anyway, let's be hopeful for that.
Are Western troops likely to end up on the ground in Ukraine?
If Western troops we mean NATO troops, I think it is very, very unlikely indeed. All this is a big flap in response to a question the French President, Emmanuel Macron, said it wasn't off the table, something needed to be thought about. The German chancellor almost immediately clapped Macron back. Didn't really need to do that. You already had the NATO secretary general, others saying more needs to be done to support the Ukrainians, more economic support, more military support, need to get the Americans to tee up for 2024. Most of NATO is all there. But of course, Macron, when he gets frustrated, he gets flustered. He likes to make a name. He likes to make headlines. Got a little trouble for that. It was a bit of an own goal. We've seen that before. But I don't think there's actually that much news being made.
How might Sweden's entry into NATO reshape defense policies and military partnerships in the region?
Well, let's keep in mind that unlike countries like Finland and Poland and the Baltics, which are front line NATO countries vis a vis Russia, Sweden is not. That's one of the reasons why their total defense spend was something like 1.2% of GDP. They will ramp that up significantly. They will reach 2% quickly and not that hard for them to do. They're small economy and very wealthy now that they are finally joining NATO. They also are very good in terms of military equipment. They have a significant defense industry and they export a lot of it. They work closely with NATO allies. So in that regard, they'll be quite significant. I think they matter. But, you know, again, it's a small country. It's really the symbolic fact that the NATO is expanding and continuing to expand because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Is Saudi Arabia poised to assist Zelensky in advancing his peace plan?
Well, the Saudis did host the most successful one of the most widely attended peace meetings for Ukraine so far. The Russians weren't there, but the Chinese were, as opposed to the meeting that just occurred in Switzerland a little over a month ago. They've also helped to facilitate transfers of POWs between the Russians and Ukrainians. That's very far from saying that we have diplomacy that's going to work, especially because Putin sees no reason. He thinks he's doing well right now and he can't wait to see what happens in the US elections in November. So I don't think there's much going on. But the Saudis certainly want to show that they want to be useful. And it's not just there. It's of course also in their own backyard. They get a lot of money, a lot of leadership. They are leading the GCC. It's a country everybody needs to pay attention to. Certainly very far from where they were a few years ago.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What's left to sanction with Russia and have existing sanctions been effective?
There's very little left to sanction with Russia that the Americans and their allies want to sanction. I mean, you could try to cut off Russian oil exports to, say, India, but no one wants to do that because that would cause a global recession. Food, fertilizer, same thing. At the end of the day, the sanctions that the West can put on Russia without a massive impact to themselves and the world they've already put. But because Biden said there'd be hell to pay if anything happened to Navalny in jail and he's dead now, and it's pretty clear the Russians, the Kremlin killed him. That means they have to sound tough. But ultimately, the only thing that is changing Russian behavior is the provision of significant military support to the Ukrainians, and that is determined by US Congress going forward.
Is Israel preventing humanitarian aid from reaching Gaza?
Certainly that is the case, and they've been very reluctant to allow significant humanitarian aid to get into Gaza. Their view is that a lot of that aid would be taken by Hamas, and there's very limited capacity to stop Hamas from doing it. It's terrorist organization. Most of the rest of the world says, yeah, even if that's the case, you've got a couple of million civilians in Gaza whose homes have been destroyed, who've been displaced, that have no other way to live unless you provide them with support. And in very short order, the principal danger to civilians in Gaza will be humanitarian and will not be the war. That's how bad the humanitarian crisis is getting, even though the war fighting continues to go on.
Why is Julian Assange in the news today?
Well, because he is facing one of his last opportunities to avoid extradition to the United States. He is in the UK right now. He's wanted on almost two dozen criminal charges by the United States in regard to he and his organization putting out classified material and diplomatic cables over ten years ago. Those are serious crimes from the United States. But supporters of Assange are all about, look, this is, you know, putting truth to power and shining a light on massive human rights abuses. And if it wasn't for Assange, people wouldn't know about those abuses. It's kind of the same thing people have been saying about Snowden. There is a massive political debate that we can't finish in 180 seconds, but that's why Assange is in the news. We will see what the high court rules.
That’s it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the House pass the Senate-approved aid package for Ukraine and Israel?
Well, certainly not if the Freedom Caucus and the Speaker of the House have anything to say about it. So, I mean, as of today, what the Senate has passed with a lot of Republicans on board looks dead in the House. But of course, the ability to jam the House and force them to accept something or there's no government funding, that is a game of chicken that we've seen before and the Senate may well continue to be ready to play. So it is not dead yet, but aid is looking challenging. And let's be clear, irrespective of what happens for 2024, it's going to be very hard to get any more aid for the Ukrainians going forward. And everybody is deeply aware of that reality.
How likely will Israel proceed with a ground invasion of Rafah in Gaza?
Well, keep in mind, this is right on the border with Egypt. The Egyptians have said that this will blow up their peace agreement with Israel if they decide to go into that space full on with a ground invasion. There's already been some incursions, including one that freed two hostages held by Hamas. So clearly that has huge support from the Israeli population as a whole. The Biden administration has publicly said that they don't want to see a ground invasion, especially because there are no circumstances, at least not set up yet, that the Palestinians who continue to be forced to move and move and move will be safe in this environment. I think that we are very close to a temporary cease fire and more hostages being released. So part of this is pressure from Israel to get that done. If you made me bet right now, I'd say we actually see the deal first. But that is not going to end eventual hostilities from ticking back up between the Israelis and Hamas in Gaza.
What are the wider implications for the Indonesia presidential election?
More state influence over key industries in the economy. Probably a little bit more willingness to blow out the budget from a fiscal perspective. But the likely winner, Prabowo, his vice presidential running mate, is the son of Jokowi, the president of Indonesia. And that implies first geopolitically, very similar orientation to have balanced relations between China economically but the US strategically. I don't see that changing at all. There is still a big question about whether they're going to move the capital. This has been a massive effort with a lot of money that is at play and it's not clear that Prabowo is as convinced that that needs to be the legacy as Jokowi has been. That'll be worth watching very carefully when he becomes president, for those that care. I do, hope you do, too.
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