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Russia/Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a press conference in Tashkent, Uzbekistan May 28, 2024.

Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool

2,100: More than 2,100 international firms have stayed in Russia since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sparked a raft of EU and US sanctions, according to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics. Why stay? Some are reluctant to leave a market of 140 million people while others are hamstrung by Kremlin rules that impose huge costs on any companies from “unfriendly” countries that try to leave. Still, despite those obstacles, some 1,600 multinationals have done so.

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Is Russia winning the war in Ukraine?
Is Russia winning the war in Ukraine? | GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

What would Ukraine’s defeat look like? Over two years into this bloody conflict, Russia has never been as close to victory as it is today. “When the history of this war is written,” former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder tells Ian Bremmer, “I think we’ll look back on the last six months as really… the turning point." Daalder joins Bremmer on the latest episode of GZERO World from Tallinn, Estonia, just a couple hundred miles from the Russian border.

"We need to start having a conversation about how serious this is, and are we going to accept this?" In a sobering and wide-ranging interview, Daalder outlines Russia's advantage on the battlefield today. “They just have more people, they have more guns, and importantly, it looks like they have more and better morale, which makes them willing to do things that otherwise people aren't willing to do."

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Listen: Could the last six months be the most pivotal months of the entire Russia/Ukraine war? Over two years into the conflict, Russia is closer to victory in Ukraine than ever before, according to former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder. He joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast from Tallinn, Estonia, mere miles from the Russian border.

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Ian Explains: Putin's Ukraine gamble
Putin's Ukraine gamble | Ian Bremmer Explains | GZERO World

Is Ukraine losing the war? A year and a half ago, Russia was in bad shape. Moscow was struggling to resupply troops on the front lines, its naval fleet in the Black Sea was decimated, and troop casualty estimates were as high as half a million. However, a disappointing Ukrainian counteroffensive and a six-month delay in crucial US military aid gave Moscow an opportunity to rearm and regroup.

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Lieutenant General Vadim Shamarin, deputy head of the army's general staff, is seen in this image on October 6, 2023.

Reuters

The housecleaning at the Russian defense ministry continues, with the arrest of a deputy chief of staff on bribery charges. Vadim Shamarin, detained on Thursday, is the fourth high-ranking Russian officer to be jailed for graft over the past month. Just two weeks ago, President Vladimir Putin replaced long-serving Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu with long-serving economist Andrei Belousov.

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Would Trump give Ukraine to Putin?
Would Trump give Ukraine to Putin? | Ivo Daalder | GZERO World

Speaking to Ian Bremmer from Tallinn, Estonia, for the latest episode of GZERO World, former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder outlines the potential impact of a Trump win on the Ukraine conflict. Daalder underscores Europe's concern about Trump's promise to end the war swiftly, noting that "Trump has said that he is going to end the war in 24 hours" by telling Putin he can keep his gains. This approach would effectively allow Putin to win the war and would have disastrous consequences, not just for Ukraine but for all of Europe. “It's been now pretty clear for the last few months,” Daalder tells Ian, that the Europeans “feel themselves squeezed between Putin and Trump. Trump as a country that is no longer willing and able reliably to help Europe and in its own defense in the way it has done for 75 years.” European leaders, Daalder says, are increasingly questioning how much they can rely on the support of the United States to defend democracy in the West. “That's the question Europe faces,” Daalder says. “It isn't going away with this election.”

Look for the full interview with Ivo Daalder on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, airing on US public television soon (check local listings.)

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Iran without Raisi: What's next?
Iran without Raisi: What's next? | Ian Bremmer | World In :60

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

What's the fallout from the death of Iran's president?

Not that much in the near term because he doesn't actually run the country. There will be a new election in 50 days. It'll be a hardline or a loyalist to the Supreme Leader. Almost no one will turn out to vote because people don't see this as legitimate. But the country is still a strong and repressive theocracy and that is not changing with or without President Raisi.

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