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US & Canada
Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and managing director for the firm's coverage of United States political and policy developments, shares his perspective on US politics from Washington, DC.
What we're watching in US Politics:Kamala Harris is off to a blazing start since replacing Joe Biden as the Democrats' pick for the presidential race, raking in almost $250 million in just one week. The big question: Can she maintain this momentum in the race against Donald Trump?
Joe Biden drops out of the race last Sunday, unexpectedly, as the oldest candidate ever, instantly making Donald Trump the new oldest nominee in American presidential history. Now he's going to have to run against a Democrat who's 19 years younger than he is, and the sitting Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris. She's off to a scorching hot start raising almost $250 million, a quarter of a billion dollars in a single week since Biden announced he was dropping out, and she's picking up a lot of buzz and excitement online.
But the real question is, is her current momentum about Harris? Or, is it just about someone other than Biden? That's really what the rest of this campaign is going to be about. Harris comes in with some strengths that Biden didn't have, namely the fact that three-quarters of the population doesn't think she's too old to be president, but she probably also has some weaknesses where Biden had unique strengths, such as his strength with working-class white voters in the Midwest. On that front, Harris is just kind of an unknown.
We can't really trust what the polls are telling us just yet, because what you'd expect to see after a big event would be a surge in support from Democrats, who are more eager to respond to polls at the moment, so it might be a few weeks before we actually have an understanding of where this race stands in public opinion polling. Then there's the question of Harris herself who hasn't really done much to distinguish herself as vice president and ran a pretty poor presidential primary campaign in 2020 that led to her dropping out and becoming the vice-presidential pick. So is this election going to be about Harris, the person, versus Donald Trump, who Americans know and either love or hate very well? Or is it going to be about Kamala Harris, the meme, running against Donald Trump?
Right now, she's polling as a generic Democrat would, doing two to four points better than Biden would nationally. We don't really have a lot of granularities on what's happening at the swing states, but it looks like this is starting to be a competitive race, and we have to see how Harris holds up once the American people get a better look at her. This is going to happen through her campaign appearances, which will be tight and scripted, but probably the most important event coming up on the election calendar is going to be the debate, where Harris won't have a chance to answer scripted questions or read off a teleprompter and is going to have to face Donald Trump live.
As for Trump, suddenly, this race that was breaking strongly in his favor is now sort of starting to turn against him because of the fact that Kamala Harris now can position herself as the change candidate, and talking about a break from the past, as Trump as the old former president that Americans maybe want to move on from. So very fluid dynamic in the race. Trump is probably still favored, just because he has more paths to victory through the Electoral College, but this could all change drastically over the coming weeks. Thanks for watching, and stay tuned for what we're watching in US politics next week.
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Harris for President Campaign Rally on Tuesday July 23, 2024 at West Allis Central High School in West Allis, Wis.
Barack and Michelle ObamaendorsedKamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for US president on Friday, joining other high-profile Democratic Party leaders in backing the vice president’s bid for the White House.
“We called to say Michelle and I couldn’t be prouder to endorse you and to do everything we can to get you through this election and into the Oval Office,” the former president told Harris.
The announcement capped a big first week for Harris. Her campaign raised a whopping $231 million in just a few days, and Harris has already started to narrow Donald Trump’s lead in key swing states. Although she is still behind in four of the five states, she has substantiallyclosed the gap left by President Joe Biden.
Trump’s biggest lead is in Arizona, where he stands 5 points above Harris. But when Biden was the nominee, Trump was ahead by 10 points. The former president is now ahead of Harris by only 2 points in Georgia and Pennsylvania; by 1 point in Michigan; and in Wisconsin, the candidates are tied.
As Harris narrows the gap, she is alsobreaking fundraising records and galvanizing youth voters. But it is too soon to tell whether this momentum is sustainable or just a short-term swell of enthusiasm following Biden’s decision to exit the race.
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Interested in who Harris might choose as her vice-presidential running mate? Click here to learn about the contenders.
President Joe Biden addresses the nation about his decision to step back from the 2024 presidential race on July 24, 2024.
For a moment last night, America lived up to its best ideals. It often does in the dark hours.
President Joe Biden addressed the nation from the Oval Office to explain his reluctant decision to step away from the 2024 campaign — a campaign he was forced to accept, in a humiliating but necessary way, that he could not win — in a rare moment of sacrifice over ego, service over ambition.
Though age has severely diminished Biden’s capacities, it has not diminished his dignity or character.
Character is not something we talk about a lot in politics these days. But as Biden raspily and haltingly defended his presidential record, his vision for the future, and his 50 years of service, he showed genuine character.
Character is more than just toughness, grit, and fortitude amid a fight, though surely it can encompass those qualities. Character is more than just grace in loss, and Biden knows more about that than most, having lost his wife Neilia and his 1-year-old daughter Naomi to a car accident in 1972, and then his son Beau to brain cancer in 2015. Character is what happens after those moments. It’s what you do with the time left, how you reassemble the pieces and build something with purpose. It’s reflected in the ideas you hold and the people you serve, even if those ideas fail and people turn on you. Character is the story your life tells when you might no longer have the strength to tell it yourself.
“Nearly all men can withstand adversity,” President Abraham Lincoln once said, “but if you want to test a man’s character, give him power.” You don’t have to agree with what Biden fought for, you don’t have to like his record, and you don’t have to support his party, but last night, President Joseph R. Biden, who still has more power than anyone on earth, passed the character test. And he asked a riven country to try to do the same.
Now let’s turn to the campaign, which, as ever, is a testing ground of character.
Campaign rallies are not known for their subtle rhetoric, so when a local politician is trying to juggle the twin duties of whipping up a partisan crowd while simultaneously kissing their candidate’s butt, it’s usually not surprising they get a little sloppy.
But it’s worth paying attention to what Ohio Sen. George Lang said to a crowd as he introduced former President Donald Trump and JD Vance the other day. Arriving at the podium chanting Trump’s now-famous epizeuxis “fight, fight, fight,” Lang warned of an upcoming civil war if Democrats win the election. “I believe wholeheartedly Donald Trump and Butler County’s JD Vance are the last chance to save our country politically,” Lang said, sweating with enthusiasm in the summer sun. “I’m afraid if we lose this one, it’s going to take a civil war to save the country.” And then, he added a little boost for those prepping for battle. “If we come down to a civil war, I’m glad we got people like Bikers for Trump on our side.”
No one followed Lang on stage and pushed back or suggested it was horrendously dangerous rhetoric. It wasn’t until much later when the recklessness of the comments began to circulate more widely that Lang was forced to apologize.
“Remarks I made earlier today at a rally in Middletown do not accurately reflect my view,” Lang said, as if somehow his mouth had gone rogue from his brain. “I regret the divisive remarks I made in the excitement of the moment on stage. Especially in light of the assassination attempt on President Trump last week, we should all be mindful of what is said at political events, myself included."
Amen to that.
Still, fears of a second civil war permeate the campaign, and while I don’t normally hyperventilate over these hypothetical, partisan-stoked fears because the institutions in the US have mostly proven to be resilient, the horrific assassination attempt on Trump and the events of Jan. 6, 2021, have made the descent in political violence a genuine scenario that demands attention. Stable democracies, like bankruptcy, end in two ways: gradually, and then suddenly.
People in the US are getting used to this sort of rhetoric by now — though normalizing it is one of the most dangerous signs of decline — but people outside the US, especially in the country’s closest allies, are deeply apprehensive. Is the US really inching toward a civil war?
To find out, we partnered on a poll with David Coletto, CEO and chair of Abacus Data, and the results are unsettling. Thirty-nine percent of Canadians say it is likely that the United States will descend into civil war, while another 23% believe it is somewhat likely. 39%? Yes. The numbers are starker among young people, with 48% of people between the ages of 18 and 29 saying a civil war is likely.
“Canadians are watching the increasing polarization and political violence in the US, and many of them are not shutting the door to that division escalating into full-scale civil war,” Coletto says. “Younger Canadians, in particular, are inclined to think that the very worst outcome is at least a possibility.”
While the polling figures are accurate, let’s hope the sentiments are wrong.
Abacus also asked about mandatory retirement ages for politicians in the wake of Biden’s agonizing decision to step aside and, again, most Canadians heartily agree that he is too old to lead. Seventy-three percent believe there should be a maximum age for a president or prime minister. What age? 28% say 71-plus while 48% say somewhere between 61 and 70, which is surprising.
“The whole Joe Biden saga put into clear perspective the effect aging can have on leaders charged with the most important executive functions in the world,” Coletto says. “Most Canadians think political leaders have a best-before date, and the average age of a president or prime minister is around the usual age of retirement, which is 65.”
You can see the full poll results and Coletto’s comments about it here. GZERO will continue to work with Abacus Data, a well-respected Canadian polling firm, to explore how Canadians and Americans feel about their relationship, the US election, and more in the coming 100 days. Check out their work here.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Foreign Relations Chair, Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD), applaud as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a joint meeting of Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., July 24, 2024.
A day after his address to Congress, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is meeting today with President Joe Biden and, separately, with Vice President Kamala Harris.
The relationship between Netanyahu and the White House was already strained, and his Wednesday speech couldn’t have helped. Harris skipped the address and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who sat it out along with roughly half of the Democratic House and Senate caucuses, called it “by far the worst presentation of any foreign dignitary invited and honored with the privilege of addressing the Congress of the United States.”
Netanyahu repeatedly made misleading or untrue statements and struck a critical tone and spent more time praising the Trump administration than Biden’s. He called protesters outside the Capitol “Iran’s useful idiots.”
Nonetheless, both Biden and Harris have gone out of their way to make it clear they support Israel, despite their patience with its prime minister wearing thin. In February, Biden described Israel’s attacks in Gaza as “over the top.”
Even as the death toll in Gaza approaches 40,000, there’s no way the US will abandon Israel, even if the Democrats give Netanyahu a bit of a cold shoulder and a few critical worlds. But amid an escalating tit-for-tat between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the US is also wary of seeing the war in Gaza spiral into a regional conflict — and the Biden administration has signaled that it would be harder to provide back-up for the Jewish state if this happens.
Along these lines, the White House is likely to once again convey to Netanyahu that it’s time for the war in Gaza to end.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem takes part in a news conference, after cutting key interest rate, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada July 24, 2024.
After becoming the first central bank in the G7 to cut interest rates back in June, the Bank of Canada lowered rates again on Wednesday, by 25 basis points to 4.5% — and suggested there may be more cuts to come.
In its decision, the bank noted that global growth is expected to proceed at around 3% and that inflation is expected to cool gradually. It also noted that in the US, where the economy has remained hot despite inflation, “the anticipated economic slowdown is materializing, with consumption growth moderating.” That’s sending US inflation — which hit its lowest point in 12 months in June — down as well.
According to a recent Reuters poll of economists, experts still expect two rate cuts — the current rate is 5.5% — by the Federal Reserve this year, with the first not coming before September. Those polled expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at their meeting this month. But Fed officials have signaled that a rate cut is getting “closer.”
On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US GDP grew by 2.8% in the second quarter this year driven by, among other things, higher consumer spending while inflation sits at around 3% — data which bolsters expectations that the Fed will wait until September for a rate cut.
Paris 2024 Olympics - Football - Women's Group A - Canada vs New Zealand - Geoffroy-Guichard Stadium, Saint-Etienne, France - July 25, 2024. Katie Kitching of New Zealand in action with Jade Rose of Canada.
Canada is making news at the Olympics already – but not the good kind. On Wednesday, two Canadians – analyst Joseph Lombardi and assistant coach Jasmine Mander – were sent home and removed from the women’s soccer team after a member of the support team was caught spying with a drone on the New Zealand women’s team practice. Lombardi was also given a suspended prison sentence from French officials, which he accepted.
Team Canada Head Coach Bev Priestman opted to voluntarily sit out the first game against New Zealand. Fifa is now investigating Priestman, Lombardi, and Mander.
The drone scandal couldn’t entirely distract, however, from the news that singer Celine Dion was seen in Paris, fueling speculation that she could perform at the Olympics. Dion was diagnosed with Stiff Person Syndrome in 2022, which has left her unable to perform.
She won’t be the only artist catching attention in Paris, though. Snoop Dog will carry the Olympic torch on Friday.
The US is expected to win 123 medals and lead the count at the Paris games, while Canada is anticipated to bring home 22, putting them just outside the top 10.
DOD in Photos: 2020 This collection showcases the work of U.S. military photographers in 2020, when U.S. service members continued to conduct around-the-clock training and operations worldwide to ensure the nation's security, even while responding to the coronavirus pandemic. The USS Toledo (SSN-769) arrives at Ice Camp Seadragon on the Arctic Ocean kicking off Ice Exercise (ICEX) 2020. ICEX 2020 is a three-week, biennial exercise that offers the Navy the opportunity to assess its operational readiness in the Arctic and train with other services, partner nations and Allies to increase experience in the region, and maintain regional stability while improving capabilities to operate in the Arctic environment. U.S. Navy Photo by MC1 Michael B. Zingaro Where: United States When: 04 Mar 2020
Climate change is already reshaping US and Canadian defense policy. Melting Arctic ice raises the chances of natural disaster, and it’s also leading to an increased military presence in the north — from the US and Canada, but also Russia and China.
In response, the Pentagon has adopted an Arctic strategy that includes working with allies like Canada on interoperability while building defense capacity in the north. It includes new surveillance, reconnaissance, and communications in the region as well as training in the area.
This comes on the heels of the US signing the ICE Pact – an Arctic cooperation plan with Canada and Finland that includes an emphasis on building icebreakers. It also accompanies a Canadian security push that includes more spending on defense and a push to hit NATO’s 2% of GDP target in the next decade.
Canada recently bought a hangar in the Arctic next to a NORAD airbase after months of US urging, just as China and Russia were expressing interest in the property.
The flurry of Arctic defense news isn’t likely to diminish. In fact, on Wednesday night, Sen. Lisa Murkowskishared that she was briefed by Pentagon officials on Russian and Chinese bombers that were intercepted in Alaska’s air defense identification zone. She thanked the US-Canada integrated response and called the move by Russia and China an “unprecedented provocation by our adversaries.”
Arctic powers have been fighting over the region for years; as ice melts and shipping routes and potential defense vulnerabilities open, countries will be watching the region closely and angling for dominance.
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