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Latin America & Caribbean
But it has reduced cause for panic, in part because Trump stated a commitment of the United States to the basic alliance, to the security umbrella, to defending Canada as necessary, which was something he wasn't saying over the past few months with Justin Trudeau. He clearly likes Carney more than Trudeau, which is not surprising because that bar is pretty much on the floor. And also stopped with the governor speak, which is clearly disrespectful, but did push on the 51st state issue, and how much better it would be for Canada if they were actually a part of the United States, not that he intends to take it over militarily, but rather something he's going to keep talking about.
And Carney didn't interrupt Trump when he was going on and on, talking about that, but then responded with his best line of the conversation, which is, "I've spent the last couple months going around talking to the owners of Canada, meaning the voters, the citizens of Canada, and it's never, never, never going to happen." Trump says, "Never say never," and they kind of agree to disagree on something they shouldn't be talking about to begin with. But at the end of the day, not much there. The bigger problem, of course, is that there is an incredibly important trade relationship between the US and Canada. And no, it is not true that the US doesn't do much business with Canada. In fact, Canada actually buys more from the United States than any other individual country in the world does. And if you go talk to the governors, the senators, the representatives of all of the northern states that border Canada, they can tell you just how integrated those supply chains are, how essential the Canadian economy is for them.
And some of those are blue states, some of those are red states, and it don't really matter, they all care a lot about their relationship with Canada. So, it is important. But because Trump is individually taking the right to tariff from Congress, where it legally sits, and using legally contestable national emergency clauses to enforce tariffs, impose tariffs on other countries, including those that are governed by pre-existing trade relationships, like Canada, which has a robust USMCA, US-Mexico-Canada agreement, that Trump himself helped drive, negotiate, and trumpeted as a huge win at the time, but now he is singularly undermining it. And what that means is that we are very unlikely to get to a new agreed USMCA in the coming year, despite the utility of renegotiating it with the sunset clause, and instead... look, I don't think anyone's going to run away from it, I don't think it's going to break, instead, it means that every year we're going to kick it down the road and renegotiate so that you can keep it going.
And that means that the Canadians don't feel like they have a functional multilateral trade arrangement with the US and Mexico, that also means, because the US president can change it at any moment he wishes, and also that an enormous amount of time is going to be spent in those negotiations, not just now, but every year, creating more uncertainty for those that need to want to rely on the long-term stability of that trade relationship. And here is the rub, which is that the US-Canada relationship will stay important, it'll stay robust, but it will become more transactional, where it had been built on trust and shared values, and that means the Canadians will work really hard to hedge and de-risk their relations from their most important trading partner.
About 75% of Canadian trade is with the United States right now, they rely much more on the US than the Americans rely on Canada, Trump is absolutely right about that, but they now see that as a vulnerability. And for the last 40 years, the Canadians, really since '88, '89, the Canadians have focused singularly on increasing their interdependence with the United States. They built out all of this infrastructure from the provinces, not east-west, but rather north-south. If you look at the way that rail transit, and energy infrastructure, and supply chains work in Canada, it's as if these provinces were independent republics set up to do business just with the United States, not focused on what would make sense for an independent sovereign Canada over the long term, if that relationship suddenly were ruptured.
Well, that needs to change, and that's something that you're going to see the Canadians work very strongly on over the coming years. Easier for Carney to do, because his relationships internationally are much stronger than previous Canadian prime ministers, certainly generationally, if you think about the fact that he was Central Bank governor in the UK, and that one of his best international relationships is actually with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and others and others, I think you're going to see a very strong effort to work with the UK, to work with the Commonwealth, to work with the EU, and to help shift those trade flows over time to hedge further away from the US.
And the costs of that will be significant, the impact of the trade rupture in the near term will be a major recession in Canada imminently, and a mild recession in the United States imminently as well, but over the long term, my view is no one benefits from that.
So, that's the main takeaway, a little less theatric maybe than the internet, apologies for that, but it is the way I see it, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Nayib Bukele, the President of El Salvador, addresses the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC 2024, at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center.
Nayib Bukele, the millennial strongman president of El Salvador, has many admirers. At least 1 million of them now follow an Instagram “fan” account dedicated to him. The account, @Bukele2024, regularly posts videos of Salvadoran gang members in prison, their heads shaven and their faces crawling with tattoos, crouching or cowering half-naked in the cells or yards of El Salvador’s maximum security facilities.
The gushing comments under these videos come largely from Salvadorans, more than 90% of whom currently support Bukele, who is now in his second term.
But many also come from outside the country.
“Excellent, we need a president like that in Argentina [heart],” says one.
“Mexico needs this kind of government!” reads another.
“Congratulations from Brazil!”
Bukele’s popularity at home – and his rising appeal abroad – come from a single, once-unimaginable achievement: Making El Salvador Safe Again.
As countries throughout the region grapple with high crime rates, the example of small El Salvador is having a big impact on Latin American politics.
What did he do? When Bukele took office in 2019, the tiny country of barely 6 million people was overrun by violence. Powerful gangs like MS-13 and The 18th Street Gang – both born in US prisons more than half a century ago – left hundreds of people dead every year as they warred over territory, extorted businesses, intimidated lawmakers, and kidnapped people for ransom.
Since then, the homicide rate has fallen from 36 per 10,000 people to fewer than two. El Salvador was once the most dangerous place on earth. It is now one of the safest.
How did he do it? At first, the gangs did it for him, reaching truces that had already started to bring down the murder rate when he took office. But after those deals collapsed, Bukele ripped off the gloves – he declared a state of emergency and unleashed a crackdown that has jailed more than 80,000 people.
El Salvador’s incarceration rate is now the highest in the world. Three out of every 100 Salvadoran men are currently in prisons like the ones shown on @bukele2024.
Human rights groups say his mano dura (strong hand) approach has been a disaster, rife with arbitrary detentions and allegations of torture and deadly abuse. To date, more than 8,000 people have been released after wrongful incarceration – watchdogs say that’s a fraction of those jailed without cause.
Bukele, who describes himself as “the world’s coolest dictator” has also chipped away at democratic checks and balances. In 2020, the army marched into Congress in order to intimidate lawmakers into passing a Bukele-backed stricter crime bill.
A year later, hand-picked justices ruled that he could skirt term limits and run for reelection. Last year, he won by more than 70 points, delivering his New Ideas party a supermajority in Congress to boot.
The region has taken notice. In Ecuador, where cartel violence has soared in recent years, President Daniel Noboa won reelection in a landslide last month after seeing moderate success with a state of emergency modeled on Bukele’s.
In Chile, where crime is a top concern for voters, Bukele is viewed positively by 80% of Chileans surveyed, and nearly half say they want a president like him in their own country. Polls show he is currently the most popular Latin American leader in Colombia and also in Peru where more than half a dozen new parties have named themselves after the Salvadoran president.
Why the love for Bukele? Concern about crime and violence is rising across Latin America. While the causes differ from country to country, the lingering economic dislocations of the pandemic, combined with surging Andean cocaine production and the social tensions generated by the mass exodus of Venezuelans over the past decade, have led to upticks in crime, both real and perceived.
A survey released last year by Latinobarometro showed that a third of people across the region said they or a relative had been the victim of violent crime over the previous year, the highest mark in nearly a decade.
But can Bukelismo really work elsewhere? Experts say El Salvador’s experience is unique and hard to replicate. It is a tiny country where the gangs, despite their ferocity, are nowhere near as powerful, entrenched, widely dispersed or well-armed as the transnational cartels that fuel violence elsewhere in the region, according to Risa Grais-Targow, a Latin America expert at Eurasia Group who travels often to El Salvador. Plus they are much easier to find than narcos.
“They all have tattoos on their faces,” she says, “There’s really no mystery about who these people are.”
Still, even if Bukelismo can’t be replicated in practice, it can be copied in politics. Over the next 18 months, four of the region’s biggest economies are heading into elections. Chile will choose a president later this year, while Brazil, Colombia, and Peru will all follow suit in 2026.
All three are currently governed by left-leaning politicians, but the right is surging ahead of next year’s vote, Risa says, in part because of the perception that their hardline policies will help to deal with crime.
“I think this Bukele message is going to be really popular or really forceful,” says Grais-Targow. “And so we are going to see a lot of Bukele copycats.
- El Salvador’s president gets “super” powers. ›
- The Salvador of El Salvador? ›
- The Graphic Truth: How does El Salvador's prison rate stack up? ›
- El Salvador's president wins big. What does this mean for the country and its neighbors? ›
- El Salvador’s millennial strongman on track to be reelected ›
- Strongman with a strong mandate? El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele ›
A member of the Syrian security forces gestures next to a vehicle at the entrance of the Druze town of Jaramana, following deadly clashes sparked by a purported recording of a Druze man cursing the Prophet Mohammad, which angered Sunni gunmen southeast of Damascus, Syria, on April 29, 2025.
10: At least 10 people were killed in sectarian clashes outside Damascus late Monday. The firefight erupted between pro-government Sunni fighters and gunmen belonging to the Druze minority after a Druze cleric was blamed for an audio recording that insulted the Prophet Muhammad. Containing sectarian violence is a top concern for the post-Assad government as it seeks to rebuild the war-torn country. In response to the violence and threats against the Druze minority, Israel conducted what it called a “warning operation” on Wednesday, targeting an armed group in Syria’s Damascus province.
24-36: Pakistan’s information minister claimed on Tuesday that the country has “credible intelligence” that India may launch a military strike within 24 to 36 hours. The warning follows India’s accusation that Pakistan-backed militants were responsible for an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last week that killed 26 tourists — a charge Islamabad denies.
2: Donald Trump on Monday reduced the tariff burden on US-based car manufacturers by ensuring that the 25% levies on vehicles and parts don’t pile on top of existing duties, such as those on imported steel and aluminum. He also provided tariff rebates on foreign parts to automakers operating in the US for a two-year period, giving them more time to shift their supply chains.
84: In Germany’s parliament late Tuesday, 84% of Social Democratic Party members strongly supported the party’s proposal to join a coalition government with the Christian Democratic bloc. Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right party that won the February election, is set to be officially appointed chancellor next week. His main priority? Reviving Germany’s struggling economy.
10,000: Roughly 10,000 cases of acute malnutrition have been registered among children in Gaza so far this year, according to a new UN report. Overall, about 60,000 children there are chronically underfed. Israel has blocked all aid deliveries to the enclave since March 2, saying that Hamas hijacks humanitarian convoys. Dozens of local and internationally run community kitchens have run out of supplies and been forced to close in recent weeks.
3: On Tuesday, after just three months of freedom, Cuban dissident Jose Daniel Ferrerwas arrested again on charges that he had violated his parole agreement. Ferrer, one of the few high-profile opponents of the island’s communist dictatorship, was released earlier this year as part of a Vatican-brokered deal. The Castro regime continues to wield significant influence in Cuba, even amid a crippling economic crisis that has driven more than a fifth of the population abroad since 2022.Salvadoran police officers escort an alleged member of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua recently deported by the U.S. government to be imprisoned in the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) prison, as part of an agreement with the Salvadoran government, in Tecoluca, El Salvador, in this handout image obtained March 16, 2025.
President Donald Trump’s actions against migrants have generated among the most controversy of any of his policies during the first few months of his presidency. His administration’s deportation of alleged Venezuelan gang members to a Salvadoran maximum security facility has drawn comparisons to the worst abuses of totalitarian regimes, and Trump’s approval rating on immigration issues has slipped a bit in several polls.
Here’s a brief rundown of three of the most salient actions Trump has taken on migration.
1. Mass deportations of alleged criminal migrants
In March, the Trump administration defied court orders to remove over 200 Venezuelan migrants whom it alleged – without providing proof or due process – were criminals without legal status in the United States. The White House claimed it had the authority to do so thanks to the 1789 Alien Enemies Act, which it invoked to target the Tren de Aragua, a gang it alleges to be conducting “irregular warfare and undertaking hostile actions against the United States.”
The Supreme Court ruled on April 8 that while the administration could use this act to deport alleged gang members, it must provide them the opportunity to challenge their removals in court first. Eleven days later, it ruled that the administration must halt deportations under the Alien Enemies Act pending a further ruling from the court. The White House derided challenges as “meritless litigation” – even though it admitted in one case, that of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, it mistakenly deported him to a potential life sentence in El Salvador. Despite another Supreme Court ruling that the administration must facilitate his return to the United States, the administration says it cannot retrieve him from El Salvador.
2. Executive Order “Protecting the American People Against Invasion”
Trump issued this broad executive order, aka PAPAI, within hours of his inauguration. It revokes several Biden-era executive orders related to immigration and attempts to further the crackdown Trump promised on the campaign trail.
For example, it removed restrictions on immigration authorities attempting to make arrests at sensitive locations like churches, schools, or certain workplaces. It urges state and local law enforcement to aid in immigration arrests, which are usually outside their jurisdictions, and threatens so-called sanctuary cities with the loss of federal funds if they do not assist. The order also mandates the creation of “Homeland Security Task Forces” in each state, reporting to the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security. These task forces are meant to marshall more manpower and resources to make arrests, but the White House has expressed frustration with the pace of detentions.
3. Militarized border protection
In another executive order signed on his first day in office, Trump declared a national emergency on the southern border, enabling military forces to take a greater role in securing the region. He also assigned the Roosevelt Reservation, a 60-foot wide strip of land running along much of the border from New Mexico to California, to the Defense Department. DoD has announced it will administer part of the reservation as a section of Fort Huachuca, a military base in Arizona. Doing so will allow military personnel to put up barriers and make arrests as part of their security duties, but those actions are likely to be challenged in court.
Despite – or perhaps because of – the crackdown along the border, apprehensions are way down compared to the Biden administration. Authorities detained just 11,017 attempted migrants along the southern border in March 2025 compared to 189,359 in March 2024.
Bleached corals are seen in a reef in Koh Mak, Trat province, Thailand, May 8, 2024.
84: A harmful mass “bleaching” event has struck 84% of the world’s coral reefs, in the largest incident of its kind on record, the International Coral Reef Initiative announced Wednesday. Bleaching occurs when warmer seas cause the colorful algae that live inside corals to emit toxic compounds. The corals, which feed on those algae, then expel them, leaving behind a colorless “bleached” coral that is at greater risk of starvation. Coral reefs are critical for ocean biodiversity, fisheries, shoreline protection, and tourism. Last year was the hottest on record.
1 trillion: The rich get richer, they say, and the poor get poorer. In the US, the first half of that is true for sure, as a new study shows $1 trillion in additional wealth was created for the country’s 19 richest families in 2024 alone. As a result, the top 0.00001% richest Americans now control 1.8% of US household wealth, the highest share ever for the stratospherically wealthy.
6: Donald Trump’s approval rating on the economy has fallen six points since he was elected, to 37%, according to a new Reuters/IPSOS poll. Most of the drop preceded Trump’s April 2 announcement of global “reciprocal tariffs.” His approval rating on immigration fell five points since early March, to 45%. Trump’s overall approval rating is at 42%. That’s the same level he showed at this point in his first term, and 13 points below where Joe Biden was in his.
1 billion: Brazilian police said Wednesday that they have arrested the head of the country’s social security agency and seized assets worth 1 billion reais ($175 million) as part of a sprawling corruption investigation. Five other officials of the agency were also jailed, and more than 200 search warrants have been executed in multiple states. The probe’s focus is the possibly fraudulent deduction of certain fees from social security benefits.
700 million: The European Commission on Wednesday fined US tech giants Apple and Meta a total of €700 million for breaching the EU’s Digital Markets Act, an antitrust law. Apple must pay €500 million ($572 million) for discriminating against developers and platforms that sell apps outside of the company’s own App Store. Meta, meanwhile, got a €200 million fine for forcing users to pay for enhanced privacy protections. Apple said it would appeal, while Meta blasted EU tech regulations, saying they will “handicap American business” while helping Chinese and European competitors.
Gavin Newsom speaks at the Vogue World: Hollywood Announcement at the Chateau Marmont in West Hollywood, CA on March 26, 2025.
California governor Gavin Newsom kicked off a campaign to promote Canadian tourism in his state, pitching its sunny beaches, lush vineyards, and world-class restaurants.
Why now? California tourism operators are feeling the pinch as relations between the US and Canada sour under Trump. Newsom reports that Canadian tourism to his state has fallen 12% compared to last year.
But his charm offensive may fall flat for reasons beyond his control. A US travel association says three times as many Canadians are staying away from the US as the industry first predicted, and southbound car trips were down by a third in March, according to Statistics Canada.
The lost business from their northern neighbors could cost Americans $6 billion this year. Canadian anger at Trump’s annexation threats are part of the problem, but so is the fear of mistreatment: The widely reported story of a Canadian actor who was held in custody for 11 days after a visa problem isn’t helping, nor are stories of people of other nationalities being turned away, detained, or having their personal devices examined. A Canadian satirical site joked that Canadian visitors could look forward to an unexpected side trip to El Salvador.
Until there is a thaw in Canada-US relations, many Canadians aren’t interested in spending their vacation dollars in Gavin Newsom’s Golden State, or anywhere else in the US for that matter.
U.S. Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) speaks to the media during a visit to El Salvador to advocate for the release of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran man deported without due process by the Trump administration and sent to the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT), in San Salvador, El Salvador, on April 16, 2025.
1: On Wednesday, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) flew to El Salvador to advocate for the release of Kilmar Abgrego Garcia, a Maryland resident wrongfully deported to a brutal high-security prison there. Van Hollen, who met with the Salvadoran vice president, is the only US lawmaker to make the trip. The Supreme Court ruled last week that the Trump administration should “facilitate” Garcia’s return to the United States, but US President Donald Trump has shown no willingness to do so. (Does that mean the United States is facing a constitutional crisis? Here’s what Ian Bremmer has to say).
4: Four Russian journalists were convicted of extremism and jailed in a closed-door trial in Moscow for associating with the Anti-Corruption Fund — a group founded by the late opposition leader and political activist Alexei Navalny. The individuals pleaded not guilty, arguing they were merely doing their jobs as independent journalists.
-0.2: Before Washington unveiled sweeping tariffs that rocked the global economy, the World Trade Organization forecasted global goods trade to grow by 2.7% in 2025. The updated forecast shows a decrease of 0.2%, a swing of 2.9 percentage points. WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala also warned that trade between the US and China could plunge by 81-91%, due to the superpowers’ trade war.
5th: California, the fifth-largest economy in the world, sued the Trump administration over the “emergency” rule that allowed the executive branch to impose tariffs — a power constitutionally reserved for Congress, the Golden State alleges.
7: The European Union has designated seven countries—Kosovo, Colombia, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Bangladesh, and India — as“safe” places for migrants to return, a decision that will result in the denial of asylum applications for citizens from those countries. The move comes amid growing anti-immigrant pressure from far-right parties across the continent.
15: Peru’s former president Ollanta Humala and his wife Nadine Heredia have been found guilty of money laundering and each sentenced to 15 years in prison. The couple was convicted of accepting nearly $3 million in illegal campaign funds from construction giant Odebrecht and hundreds of thousands of dollars from the late Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez. Humala was taken into custody, whereas Heredia sought asylum at the Brazilian embassy in Lima and was granted safe passage to Brazil.