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Latin America & Caribbean
Jamaican and Belizean security personnel disembark from a U.S. Coast Guard airplane in a deployment to support an international security mission aimed at fighting gangs, at Toussaint Louverture International Airport in Port-au-Prince, Haiti September 12, 2024.
The Haitian government created a provisional electoral council Wednesday tasked with organizing elections by February 2026 — 10 years after the last vote in the troubled Caribbean country. The council’s foundation comes after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described it as a “critical next step” during a visit two weeks ago, but it faces daunting security and legitimacy challenges.
Gangs still control vast areas of the capital, and the Kenyan-led security mission has been agonizingly slow to deploy. Currently just 600 Kenyans and a handful of Jamaicans are backing the beleaguered Haitian National Police and military against the heavily armed gangs that ousted then-Prime Minister Ariel Henry in March. Holding a representative election will be impossible until the security situation improves dramatically, particularly in Port-au-Prince — and it may require compromise instead of coercion. We’re watching whether gang-associated figures end up on the ballot.
Election authorities will need to build trust even if the security situation improves. There are currently no elected officials in all of Haiti. Prime Minister Garry Conille was appointed by an unelected transitional presidential council formed with a good deal of backroom horse trading in the wake of Henry’s resignation. Henry himself was also unelected, and has been dogged by rumors implicating him in the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Even this first step toward democratic restoration was marred, as the electoral council has only filled seven of the legally required nine seats.
Indian Army soldiers participate in a mock drill exercise during the Army Day parade in New Delhi, India, January 15, 2016. India celebrated the 68th anniversary of the formation of its national army with soldiers from various regiments, and artillery on display on Friday.
11: For more than a year now, European countries have been buying Indian weapons and sending them to Ukraine for use against Russian invaders, according to 11 Indian and European defense officials interviewed in a Reuters exclusive. The juiciest bit? New Delhi – which has otherwise maintained good ties with Moscow – has refused Russia’s repeated requests to stop this from happening.
2: The Colombian government suspended peace talks with the Marxist rebels of the National Liberation Army, known by its Spanish acronym ELN, after an attack by the group killed two soldiers. Calling off talks with the ELN – which sat out the historic 2016 peace deal between the government and the larger FARC group – is another blow to leftist President Gustavo Petro’s promise of reaching “total peace” in the country. In July he was forced to scrap negotiations with another large faction of holdout militants.
47: With less than two months until Election Day, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are in a dead heat, tied at 47% apiece in a new national poll. In Pennsylvania, a key swing state, polls gave Harris an advantage of between one and four points. The margin of error in the state polls was just under 4 points.
80,000: People in the flood-battered northeastern Nigerian state of Borno are reeling at the price of canoe rides, with operators charging as much as 80,000 naira (about $50) for a short journey. To put that in perspective, that single ride would cost more than the local monthly minimum wage. Borno has suffered severe floods, and a related prison break, since a dam burst amid unusually heavy rains in Central and Eastern Africa.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why is Mexico's judiciary overhaul controversial?
Main reason is it means the judiciary is going to be less independent and much more politicized. They're going to be elected, these judges. They're going to have shorter terms. They're going to be aligned with whoever happens to be in political power. That is the intention. That's why AMLO, outgoing president, wanted this judiciary reform to get done and not be changed. But not only does that undermine rule of law and means that his preferences, his party's preferences will likely also be that of the judiciary. But also, especially in a country where there are very, very strong gangs associated with drugs, any place where they have strong governance, they'll be able to also ensure that the judges are the ones that they want, and that is a horrible development for rule of law in a country whose democratic institutions frankly aren't very consolidated. So, it's a problem and it's going to hurt the Mexican economy, hurt the investment climate.
After losing another parliamentary seat, is Justin Trudeau's time as Canada's leader coming to an end?
Certainly. Sometimes you stay a little longer than your performance merits. This is certainly the case for Trudeau. The people are tired of him. They don't feel the country's heading in the right direction. Major problems in terms of inflation, especially real estate, housing costs, lack of availability of housing, and just people wanting something different. We've seen that all over the world with elections over the last year. We're going to see it in Canada in the coming months.
2.5 years in, and 1 million now dead or injured. Is Russia's invasion of Ukraine any closer to resolution?
I'd say it's closer to resolution insofar as the Ukrainians increasingly know that it's getting harder for them to field troops, to fight, to defend their territory. That's why the risk, the risky attack inside Russian territory, which they probably can't hold, but certainly has meant that they're going to lose more territory in Ukraine. Also, certainly you talk to NATO leaders, they understand that the time for negotiations, the time for trying to wrap up the war and freeze the conflict, a ceasefire, at least, if not a negotiated settlement is soon. So, I'd be surprised if the war is still going with the level of intensity in a year as it is right now, but the Ukrainians are not going to get their land back. And what that means and what kind of guarantees they get from the West, including security guarantees potentially, certainly Ukraine very hopeful for an actual formal NATO invitation, which they don't have at this point. That is the state of negotiations happening between the Ukrainians and others.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro delivers a speech during a rally to celebrate the results of last month's presidential election, in Caracas, Venezuela August 28, 2024.
Six foreign nationals, including three American, two Spanish, and one Czech citizen, were arrested in Venezuela on Saturday,accused of plotting to assassinate strongman President Nicolás Maduro. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello announced the arrests on state television, claiming the suspects were part of a CIA-led plan to overthrow the government. One of the Americans is a US Navy SEAL identified as Wilbert Joseph Castañeda Gomez.
In response,the US State Department denied any involvement, called the claims “categorically false,” and reaffirmed support for a peaceful resolution to the crisis stemming from Venezuela’s recent elections. The Spanish Foreign Ministry said that the two Spanish citizens detained “do not form part of the Centre for National Intelligence or any state organization” and called for a “democratic and peaceful solution to the situation in Venezuela.”
The arrests cometwo days after the US Treasury imposed sanctions on 16 Maduro allies, and a week after Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzales, who was facing arrest, fled to Spain. Washington refuses to recognize the results of Venezuela's July 28 election, in which Maduro claimed victory despite evidence that Gonzales was the real winner. Caracas called the US sanctions a “crime of aggression” that seeks to “overthrow, without success, the Bolivarian democracy.”Demonstrators display a large Mexico flag as they protest at the Angel of Independence after a highly contested judicial reform proposal was passed in the Senate in Mexico City, Mexico September 11, 2024.
Mexico’s senate voted 86-41 on Wednesday to approve a controversial judicial overhaul that will require the nation’s judges to stand for election in order to keep their jobs. Critics fear this will politicize Mexican justice and scare off investors crucial to the country’s prosperity. The peso weakened by 1% on Tuesday, and it is down 15% since Mexico’s June election, leaving investors worried that their assets might not be protected and that the reform could cause problems with the all-important US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on free trade.
Incoming President Claudia Sheinbaum – she takes office on Oct. 1 – attempted to set markets at ease, saying “national and foreign investors don’t have anything to worry about,” and claiming the reforms will “strengthen the delivery of justice in our country.”
Eurasia Group country expert Matías Gómez Léautaud says the reforms will “open the door for the political capture of the judiciary as a whole, the intermission of criminal groups, as well as the consolidation of monopolistic practices.”
“Businesses operating in Mexico will struggle to have a fair trial on any given issue in which they have to reach an arbitration process,” he notes.
The only other country where top justices are elected, Bolivia, is hardly the poster child of a stable, investable democracy, and its Constitutional Court has become a tool of the ruling party to maintain power.
Sheinbaum has consistently said she is committed to seeing the reform through despite criticisms. Federal and supreme court justices will stand for election in two cycles, in 2025 and 2027, which bracket scheduled USMCA negotiations in 2026. We’re watching whether the decision sparks more protests – and how it impacts Mexico’s economy and free trade talks.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What issues will dominate the Trump/Harris debate?
Well, I mean clearly the economy, migration, abortion, I mean these are the issues that are on top of everybody's agenda. I care the most about global issues, foreign policy issues, things like climate change, artificial intelligence governance, and say, the Middle East, China, and Russia. But I suspect that that gets a small amount of time and also is a very little impact to voters that has still undecided. Having said all of that, I don't think this is mostly about issues. I think this is mostly about how does Harris perform against Trump and vice versa. And keep in mind that given just how filtered people's information sources are, if one of them wins by a little bit, then both sides are going to come away saying we destroyed the other, and so will all of their supporters.
So I mean, there has to be a big mistake or a big win for anyone to break through in what's an extremely tight race here. And that's what everyone's looking for, especially because Harris hasn't been tested like this before and Trump's last few public appearances have been pretty all over the map and showing his age. So I think people looking for first major test of Harris of this sort and is Trump capable of still delivering big-time entertainment in this sort of a format? So that's where we are. Everyone will be tuned in tonight. I think a lot more than 50 million people in the United States are going to be watching. This should be a highly, highly visible and important. Only two months before the election action.
As Edmundo Gonzalez seeks asylum in Spain, what lies ahead for Venezuela and Maduro's opposition?
Well, the fact that the United States has impounded one of Maduro's planes shows just how much that policy had failed, an effort to try to use carrots to get the Venezuelan government to be willing to hold a free and fair election. That was never going to happen. Not from the Americans, not from the Colombians, not from the Brazilians. Not from the Mexicans. There was no one out there that was going to make a difference. And sadly not Venezuela's opposition either. What this means is the military still supporting the Venezuelan president, massively corrupt, completely stolen illegitimate election and he's not going anywhere. That's where we are. And if Gonzalez hadn't fled the country, he was going to get arrested. Venezuelan military and president, very happy for him to flee the country. They gave him more than enough time and indication saying, "Okay, we're coming for you. We're coming for you. Okay, now we have an arrest warrant. If you don't leave, you're going to jail." He left. And everyone, I guess, is comfortable with that outcome, but a horrible place for the Venezuelan people, millions of whom will be streaming, millions more mostly to the United States, to Colombia, to other countries.
How was Mario Draghi's report on EU competitiveness received?
Received very well because the Europeans are not spending on competitiveness and industrial policy the way the Americans are, the way the Chinese are. And that means that they're being left behind in terms of technology. They're also not spending enough on security, which means they're still super, super dependent on the United States. And Draghi is calling for the Europeans to do a lot more, but they don't have the internal leadership to make that happen, and they don't have the fiscal space, nor do they have the coordination capable, even in a strong European Union. So very welcome. Not going to get implemented. That's where we are. Love Draghi, but he ain't running the EU.
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Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Haven't spoken in a while about Brazil, and thought I might, given the demonstrations going on over the weekend and the big fight that is going on around democracy, around free speech, around the social media site that is known as Twitter/X. The issue here is that as in the United States, politics in Brazil exceptionally polarized and divided lots of issues questioning the future of the country's democracy, whether or not you can have a free and fair transition. January 8th in Brazil has the resonance for part of its population the way that January 6th does in the United States, participants seen as patriots by the other part of the population. You see where we're going here. One big difference between Brazil and the United States is in the United States, the Supreme Court, while it has at times a liberal and presently a conservative bent, is still an independent organization that is very separate from the executive.
In Brazil, it is much more politicized and corrupt. And specifically the effort to take down Twitter / X, in Brazil as well as freeze the accounts of Starlink for example, also owned by Elon Musk, has been overreach, politicized overreach by one specific Supreme Court member, Alexandre de Moraes, and has been approved by the Supreme Court as a whole. Now the issue here is a number of accounts that were disseminating disinformation, fake news, and claimed by the government needed to be taken down by Twitter / X. Twitter / X has refused to do so. And that angered those on the left in Brazil, especially because when other demands are made to remove individual accounts in other countries, like in Turkey or the UAE, which are made with similarly, I would say, tenuous justification, but if that's what the political leaders are saying in that country, that amounts to an order by a relevant authority.
Twitter / X has historically overwhelmingly complied and, indeed, taken down those accounts. We've seen that in a number of countries, not all the time but most of the time, and that hasn't been the case in Brazil. Is the reason why Elon Musk and Twitter refuse to remove these accounts because he's politically aligned or sympathetic with them? Certainly that would be the argument that is being made in Brazil. But there is an opportunity here from the conservatives, including from former President Bolsonaro to use this and the opposition to freedom of speech as a rallying call. And that was what we saw in these demonstrations over the weekend. They were significant. You might've seen the photos. About 50,000 total on Brazil's Independence Day, that's September 7th, in Sao Paulo attending the rally. They're small historically in context. I mean, Bolsonaro back in February got almost 200,000 protesters, so about four times as many to attend a rally also in Sao Paulo.
But it was significant because it does show that the defense of liberty and democracy is a rallying cry of the opposition in the next presidential election that's coming up in 2026, which is not so far away. And both Bolsonaro's speech as well as most of the conservative leaders that appeared with him, like the Sao Paulo governor for example, had heavy, heavy criticism of the Supreme Court ruling and specifically of Justice de Moraes, as we've seen from Elon. And they are accusing the Supreme Court of undermining freedom of speech. With the ongoing court investigations both about disseminating false information about the electoral system and about the January 8th attacks in Brasilia. And the fact that X has now been banned from Brazil after Elon has refused to comply. And by the way, I mean it's not the most important, it's a comparatively small social media site in Brazil.
There are others that are much more popular. But still this is getting a lot of attention because it is such a political grenade, and that is helping the conservative opposition in Brazil say that individual freedoms are being undermined. And the interesting point here is this is related to the United States. Both sides of the aisle in Brazil just like both sides of the aisle in the United States believe that the other side is a threat to democracy in ways that you don't see in Canada, or the UK, or France, or Germany, or Japan, or South Korea. I would say Brazil is the one major democracy that most feels like the United States in terms of this level of political dysfunction. But what's interesting is that it is the Bolsonaro-led opposition that is using the defense of democracy and liberty to mobilize its base before the 2026 elections. This has historically been much more of a calling card of the left. And in the United States democratic voters care more about the issue of defending democracy as a political issue than Republicans do, in Brazil conservative voters care more about defense of democracy than voters on the left. And this fight that was started by the Supreme Court is playing into that narrative. So interesting, worth talking about, getting a lot of attention. Thought I would throw my own two cents in, and I'll talk to you all real soon.