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Tasha Kheiriddin
A Philippine flag flutters from BRP Sierra Madre, a dilapidated Philippine Navy ship that has been aground since 1999 and became a Philippine military detachment on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea March 29, 2014.
Manila announced Sunday it had reached a “provisional agreement” with Beijing aimed at establishing an arrangement in the South China Sea that both sides can live with — without renouncing territorial claims. The text of the deal has not yet been released.
The agreement builds off last week’s announcement of the establishment of presidential hotlines and signals a desire for de-escalation by both countries – following a serious clash on June 17. But the key word in this agreement is “provisional” as both Beijing and Manila are already showing irreconcilable differences in their positions.
China had previously told Manila it could not bring construction materials to the wreck of the Sierra Madre, a decrepit hulk deliberately beached on the South Thomas Shoal by Manila to give it de facto control. Without repairs, the ship will likely break apart soon. But Beijing claims Manila agreed to give China advanced notice and allowed inspections of shipments sent to the marines it keeps stationed there carrying food and supplies. A senior Filipino official told the Associated Press that the final deal did not require the Philippines to pre-notify the Chinese of shipments.
What to watch? A deal to cool temperatures in the South China Sea would be welcome news for all parties, including the US. “The next big test,” says Eurasia Group senior China analyst Jeremy Chan, “will be how both Manila and Beijing behave on future resupply missions, and whether either side can cede any ground.”
A demonstrator gestures as protesters clash with Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and the police outside the state-owned Bangladesh Television as violence erupts across the country after anti-quota protests by students, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, July 19, 2024.
Bangladesh’s Supreme Court on Sunday scrapped most government job quotas after two weeks of nationwide student-led protests left 139 people dead and more than 400 injured.
The back story:For decades, a quota system reserved 56% of government jobs for special groups. Thirty percent went to descendants of those who fought for independence against Pakistan in 1971. The rest were for women, minorities, and poor districts.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina ended that in 2018 in response to protests, but in June the High Court reinstated the fighters’ relatives quota, provoking fresh unrest and a police crackdown. Government jobs are coveted in a country of high youth unemployment, stagnant private-sector employment, and stinging inflation.
The court’s new ruling caps the job quota at 7%.
Hasina has held a tight grip on power since 2009. In January, she won an election that was boycotted by the opposition over concerns that she was rigging it.
Observers say the protests are about more than quotas. “They’re protesting against the repressive nature of the state,” said Mubashar Hasan, a Bangladesh expert at the University of Oslo. “The students are in fact calling [Hasina] a dictator.”
Will the protesters now look to press further against Hasina? Student leaders have already said they’ll stay in the streets until the government releases jailed students and restores internet service.
FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Joe Biden is welcomed by Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu, as he visits Israel amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 18, 2023.
How will Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to Washington, DC, unfold now that US President Joe Biden has called off his 2024 reelection campaign?
As late as Sunday morning,media outlets were reporting that Biden didn’t want to give Netanyahu “the satisfaction” of bowing out before the trip, due to their recent disagreements over the Israel-Hamas war. Netanyahu was originally scheduled to meet Biden, but that’s in limbo given Biden’s COVID-19 diagnosis.
Now that Biden has announced he will step down, will Vice President Kamala Harris step up? She was already scheduled to meet with the Israeli PM, and all eyes will be on what message she delivers – and how she delivers it, considering it’s her first high-profile foreign policy gig.
Then again, it might not. Netanyahu hopes to have a tete-a-tete with Republican nominee Donald Trump,though no meeting has been confirmed. Republicans have invited the Israeli leader to address a joint session of the US Congress on Wednesday –a speech several Democrats plan to boycott, as 60 of them did during Netanyahu’s lastaddress to Congress in 2015, when he attempted to disrupt the Iran nuclear deal. We’ll be watching who comes out and who stays home this time.U.S. Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle speaks at a press conference by the U.S. Secret Service about the Republican National Convention on Thursday June 6, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wis.
The US Secret Service has now admitted to denying some security requests from Republican nominee Donald Trump’s campaign over the past few years. Before the assassination attempt against the former president last week, Secret Service agents in Trump’s detail had also requested more snipers and specialty teams at other outdoor events, which top officials at the agency denied due to a lack of resources and staffing shortages.
The change of narrative turns up the heat on Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle, who is set to testify before a House committee hearing on Monday about the assassination attempt. Questions include why the would-be assassin was not apprehended prior to the attack despite being flagged by a Secret Service counter-sniper 20 minutes before.
While Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas maintains thathis confidence in Cheatle is “100%”, a slew of Republicans, as well as a Democrat,Rep. Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, have called for her resignation. President Joe Biden, while supporting Cheatle, has ordered an independent investigation.
At a House briefing last week, Cheatle admitted the Secret Service fell short at a “no fail” mission but so farhas no plans to resign. We’ll see if that changes this week – and what other information comes to light at the hearing.Palestinians flee the area after an Israeli attack on July 13, 2024 in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip.
Hamas claimed it had not withdrawn from Gaza truce talks on Sunday, despite earlier reports to the contrary, after Saturday’s Israeli offensive targeted Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif. Hamas says Deif survived, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Deif’s fate remains unclear. The strike killed 92 other Palestinians, including women and children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.
A Hamas official described the attacks as a “grave escalation” that showed Israel was not interested in reaching a cease-fire agreement, but Hamas’s military strategy also does not facilitate this objective. A weekend report from the New York Times, for example, details how Hamas fighters embed their operations within civilian areas, ensuring that any Israeli action produces heavy casualties. Hamas fighters often use a system of lookouts, including children, to monitor Israeli movements before emerging in plain clothes to launch surprise attacks and meld back into the local population.
This accomplishes Hamas’s real goal of dragging out the conflict with Israel, undermining the Jewish state and isolating it on the international stage.As far back as November 2023, Khalil al-Hayya, a deputy to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, said “This battle … did not seek to improve the situation in Gaza. This battle is to completely overthrow the situation.”
With the conflictnow increasingly expanding to include Hezbollah, Hamas may be dangerously close to achieving this goal. The losers, of course, are both the Palestinian inhabitants of Gaza and the people of Israel, desperate for the return of the over 100 hostages still held by Hamas, as well as Jews around the world now subject to a surge in antisemitic attacks.
Entertainer and convention speaker Amber Rose stands at the podium ahead of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., July 14, 2024.
The RNC Convention opens Monday in Milwaukee, WI, and we’ll be watching from Day One to see the moment when Trump unveils his running mate. Observers are betting that Sen. JD Vance, of Ohio, has the inside track because Donald Trump Jr. – a big Vance fan – is reportedly scheduled to speak right before the official VP pick, rumored to be on Day Three.
Other politicians on the roster to speak include former GOP presidential candidates Ben Carson, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Sen. Marco Rubio, Gov. Ron DeSantis ofFlorida, Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia. Notably absent from the list is Trump’s chief former rival for the GOP nod, Nikki Haley.
Family speakers include both Trump sons, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump, but not daughters Ivanka Trump and Tiffany Trump, or wife Melania Trump, who will however make a rare public appearance at the event. And no convention would be complete without star power:Celeb speakers include media personality Tucker Carlson, rapper Amber Rose, UFC CEO Dana White, and reality star Savannah Chrisley.
Attendees also will be treated to multiple advance screenings of the biopic “Reagan,” starring Dennis Quaid as the late president, slated for general release on Aug. 30. Fun fact: Quaid also played US President Bill Clinton in HBO’s 2010 drama“The Special Relationship,” about Clinton’s relationship with UK PM Tony Blair.
We’re watching what the convention-goers say about this weekend’s assassination attempt, and what Trump’s pick for VP says about his campaign priorities.
U. S. Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump is surrounded by U.S. Secret Service agents in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024.
A picture may be worth a thousand votes – or more. The image of Republican nominee Donald Trump’s blood-streaked face, fist raised defiantly beneath a giant American flag,may help him win the election. A young man, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, took aim from a rooftop near a Trump rally in Butler, PA, on Saturday, firing multiple shots before being “neutralized.” He hit the former president’s right ear, killing one spectator and injuring another two. Questions are being raised as to how an armed Crooks could have gotten so close to Trump.
Trump’s vigorous response, meanwhile, hasenergized his base and further highlighted the contrast between him and the more frail President Joe Biden.
According to William Hill, a UK-based betting company, Trump's odds of winning rose from 8/15 (65.2%) before the shooting to 4/11 (73.3%) after it. And in financial markets, trades betting on his victory arepredicted to increase this coming week.
But the shooting could also herald more political violence and social instability, according to Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer. “This is the kind of thing we have seen historically in lots of countries facing instability and frequently does not end well.”
Already, Ohio Sen. and Trump VP hopeful JD Vance hasblamed Biden for the attack.
“The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” Vance posted on X. “That rhetoric led directly to President Trump's attempted assassination.”
Biden, for his part, addressed the nation on Sunday to condemn the shooting, and his campaign has ceased its negative campaigns. “No matter how strong our convictions, we must never descend to violence,” he said.
What will this mean for campaign security?
Expect it to be stepped up. Reps. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and Mike Lawler (R-NY) announced Saturday thatthey would introduce bipartisan legislation providing Trump, President Joe Biden, and presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. with enhanced Secret Service protection. RNC convention security plans are also being re-examined.
An investigation is already underway. The Secret Service will be asked to explain how the shooter got so close to Trump – and investigators will establish the order of events, determining how the shooter gained access to the roof and whether rallygoers’ warnings about seeing a man with a gun went unheeded. Director Kimberly Cheatlehas been summoned to testify before a committee of the US House of Representatives on July 22. Meanwhile, the Secret Service has denied claims that it rebuffed requests from Trump’s team for heavier security in recent weeks.
A private security force?
With mistrust of the Secret Service running high in Republican circles, could they push for Trump to re-establish his own private security force? Possibly, and there is precedent.
Trump retained private security during his 2016 campaign when he was not eligible for Secret Service protection. After his election, he continued to engage his long-time head of security, retired New York City police officer and Navy veteran Keith Schiller, as a private bodyguard, which broke protocol and sparked some controversy. Schiller left the White House in October 2017, but his security company,KS Global Group LLC, was subsequently hired by the Republican National Committee to consult on security at the RNC’s 2020 convention.
To read more about what happened and what’s likely to come next, click here. Watch Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take here for his insights about the assassination attempt. And be sure to look back at two notable examples in history when a sitting or former US president survived being hit by an assassin’s bullet here.President of the United States Joe Biden is delivering off-the-cuff remarks unscripted following remarks at the podium with First Lady Jill Biden at a BBQ with members of the military and their families on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, D.C., United States, on July 4, 2024.
The calls keep coming for US President Joe Biden to end his 2024 reelection campaign, with two letters reportedly circulating among House Democrats calling for Biden to step aside.
Many in the party see the coming week as crucial, including Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy who said “I do think the clock is ticking,” but a defiant Bidensaid “only the Lord Almighty” could make him quit in a 22-minute interview with ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos Friday night. Biden reaffirmed he would stay, called Donald Trump a “congenital liar,” andrefused to take a cognitive test, saying that he takes a test “every day” just doing his job.
While the president didn’t make any blunders, his performance still left many Democrats uneasy. That concern grew after it became public that Biden’s team had provided suggested questions to two radio interviewersin advance, prompting his aides to say they would cease the practice.
Despitea strong rally in Madison and awarm welcome in Philadelphia, the list of Democrats who want the President to step aside keeps growing longer. So far, nine House Democrats have called for him to quit, the latest being representatives Adam Smith of Washington, Jerry Nadler of New York, Mark Takano of California and Joe Morelle of New York. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia had invited fellow senators to meet today to discuss the Biden campaign, but that meeting was called off last night.
As the week unfolds, with Biden hosting the NATO Summit in Washington, DC, we’ll be watching who else joins the chorus – and whether Biden changes his mind.