We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
Tasha Kheiriddin
Tasha is a political columnist, commentator, and author based in Toronto, Canada. You can read her in The National Post, on Substack at In My Opinion, and in her most recent book, "The Right Path."
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu attend a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China January 10, 2024.
On Sunday, the South Asian archipelago of the Maldives held parliamentary elections, widely viewed as a referendum on the pro-China policies of President Mohamed Muizzu. Preliminary returns have Muizzu’s People’s National Congress Party leading with 66 of 93 seats up for grabs (with 86 declared), with 73% of 284,000 eligible voters casting ballots.
India out, China in. Muizzu came to power last September on an “India Out” campaign, repudiating his country’s historical ties to New Delhi in favor of closer links with Beijing. Since then, Muizzu ordered the expulsion of Indian military personnel and awarded significant infrastructure projects to Chinese companies. Earlier this year, Muizzu traveled to China to strike a deal that boosted Chinese tourism by 200%, in the wake of a 40% drop in Indian tourism caused by derogatory remarks made by Maldivian deputy ministers about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Muizzu was considered a proxy candidate for former President Abdulla Yameen, who held power between 2013 and 2018 and whose 11-year jail term on bribery charges was overturned last week. Under Yameen, the Maldives joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2013. Both India and China view the Maldives as a strategic maritime hub in the Indian Ocean due to its location on major east-west international shipping routes.
Women mourn near the bodies of Palestinians killed in Israeli strikes in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, April 21, 2024.
Israeli air strikes on Rafah in southern Gaza this weekend killed 22 people, including 18 children. Israel has intensified its operations against Hamas in recent days, leading to speculation that it may be preparing for a ground operation in Rafah — where some 1.4 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering.
In a statement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel “will increase the political and military pressure on Hamas ...We will land more and painful blows on Hamas — soon.”
Giving and taking. This comes as the US House of Representatives approveda $95 billion legislative package, including $9 billion in humanitarian aid, of which $2 billion is reportedly earmarked for Gaza, and $17 billion in defense aid to Israel. The Senate is expected to pass the package soon, and President Joe Biden is ready to sign it.
Simultaneously, however, the US is threatening to sanction the IDF’s Orthodox Netzah Yehuda battalion over accusations of human rights abuses in the West Bank. This would be the first time the US has considered such a move, sparking a sharp response from Israeli officials.
Netanyahu described the sanctions as “the height of absurdity and a moral low” during a time of conflict, while fellow war cabinet member Benny Gantzwarned that “imposing sanctions on the unit is a dangerous precedent and sends the wrong message to our shared enemies.”
FBI Director Christopher Wray testifies before the House Approbations Subcommittee on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., April 11, 2024.
FBI Director Christopher Wray has called out a Chinese cyber threat named Volt Typhoon that is targeting US water, power, and telecommunications companies, including23 pipeline operators.
In an address at Vanderbilt University late last week,Wray warned that "Chinese government-linked hackers have burrowed into US critical infrastructure and are waiting for just the right moment to deal a devastating blow."
The goal? To induce panic and potentially deter the US from supporting Taiwan in the event of an attack on the island by China.
How might Volt Typhoon strike? "You might find your companies harassed and hacked, targeted by a web of corporate CCP proxies," Wray told world leadersearlier this year. “You might also find PRC hackers lurking in your power stations, your phone companies, and other infrastructure, poised to take them down ..."
An escalating threat. The FBI director has been warning about China’s cyber capabilities for months in speeches and in testimony before Congress, calling the Chinese Communist Party "the defining threat of our generation.” Chinese hackers, he says, outnumber FBI cyber personnel 50 to 1.
Beijing has denied state involvement in Volt Typhoon, attributing the hacking to criminal ransomware groups. However, Wray cites evidence of the operation using extensive botnets to mask its cyber trail,as well as investigations by Microsoft and Google tying the campaign to China.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-GA, yells as President Joe Biden speaks during the State of the Union address from the House chamber of the US Capitol in Washington.
Roughly six months after Kevin McCarthy was booted as House Speaker, GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia aims to oust his successor, Mike Johnson. On Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures,”Greene declared, “Mike Johnson’s speakership is over. He needs to do the right thing to resign ... If he doesn’t do so, he will be vacated.”
The reason? On Saturday, Johnson cut a bipartisan deal with Democrats to pass a $95 billion foreign aid package that includes $61 billion for Ukraine. The far-right wing of the GOP is opposed to the notion of funding “foreign wars,” contending that US funding should instead go toward domestic issues like border security.
Though former President Donald Trump publicly backed Johnson last week, it’s unclear if this will be enough to save him from the growing mutiny among House Republicans. Some even say the party risks tearing itself apart.
Johnson stands firm. Despite Greene’s threats,Johnson remains steadfast. “I really believe the intel … I think Vladimir Putin would continue to march through Europe.”
In Ukraine, meanwhile, the aid package's approval has been met with gratitude. Officials there say it will help replenish Ukraine’s short- and medium-range air defense systems to intercept Russian ballistic missiles targeting Ukraine’s energy grid.
Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from Lebanon towards Israel over the Israeli Lebanese border, as seen from northern Israel, April 12, 2024.
On Saturday, Iran launched roughly 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria. Some 99% of Iranian projectiles were destroyed by a combination of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, US firepower, and assistance from Britain, Germany, and reportedly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Israel suffered minimal damage and no casualties.
The question now is what comes next, for the region, the Israel-Hamas war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the world’s great powers?
The region
The slow-motion nature of the attack, which gave Israel and its allies hours to prepare, led some analysts to call itmore symbolic than serious. However, it allowed Iran to gauge Israel’s capabilities, see who would come to the Jewish state’s aid, and learn how other regional powers and groups would respond to an Iranian barrage.
Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense, according to Israeli military intelligence. The two monarchies both have close ties to the US, Jordan shares a border with Israel, and there is no love lost between Iran’s Shi’a fundamentalist government and the Saudi Sunni monarchy and religious authorities.
But according toMasoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, “… if tonight's attacks escalate into a wider Israel-Iran conflict, regional actors perceived as defenders of Israel may find themselves targeted and dragged into the regional conflagration.”
What might Israel do?
US President Joe Biden wants Bibi to “take the win” and not retaliate, but Israel could use the attack as a reason to bomb Iran’s nuclear program or other Iranian military installations.
Netanyahu’s cabinet is divided. Hardliners are calling for a tough response, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir saying Israel should “go crazy.” Netanyahu rival Benny Gantzsaid Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us.” And Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has the opportunityto form a strategic alliance with nations, including the United States and Germany.
According to Hebrew-language media reports, the security cabinet has authorized the war cabinet – whose only voting members are Gantz, Netanyahu, and Gallant – to ultimately make the decision. A possible clue to that response came Sunday as Gantz declared that Israel must strengthen the “strategic alliance and the regional cooperation” that allowed it to overcome Iran’s attack.
“Israel is currently weighing options. Strikes on Iran directly are possible, but it appears that the war cabinet is divided over how to respond,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. “Bombing Iran in response to Saturday's attack would likely escalate the confrontation and compel Iran to attack again – this time with less warning and stage-managing.”
The Israel-Hamas War and Bibi’s future
Iran has warned that attacks by its allies won’t stop until the war in Gaza ends – but that ending is still nowhere in sight. On Sunday,Hamas rejected the latest proposal for a deal presented a week ago by mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
According to Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer, the Iranian attack is “going to be a big distraction away from the war in Gaza. [This] doesn't mean that Israel suddenly loses its isolation or wins the PR war globally,” he says, “And there's also less pressure for Netanyahu to be forced out domestically in the near future.”
Great powers unite
The US made it clear that it wants no further escalation. Bidenalso told Netanyahu that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
The G7 issueda statement affirming their support for Israel and condemning Iran, saying that an uncontrollable regional escalation “must be avoided.” They demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks and “stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives.”
Iransaid a “new equation” in its adversarial relationship with Israel had been opened, and warned of a “much bigger” assault on the country should Netanyahu retaliate to Saturday’s assault.
WhileBremmer does not see this leading to World War III, he says the “potential that this war expands and eventually does drag in the United States and Iran more directly is also going up. ”Nigeriens gather in a street to protest against the U.S. military presence, in Niamey, Niger April 13, 2024.
Hundreds demonstrated in Niger's capital, Niamey, on Saturday to demand the removal of US troops, much as they called for the exit of French forces last year. Niger’s military coup in July 2023 has brought changes to the central African nation, including a shift in military alliances. The nation is deepening its relationship with Moscow, as evidenced bythe arrival last week of Russian military trainers tasked with bolstering Niger’s air defenses.
The junta has not yet expelled US forces after ordering them to leave last month. Until last year, the US had been a key ally in combating Islamic terrorists in the Sahel region, funding a $100 million drone base and training elite Nigerien counterterrorist units. But with Russia in the picture now, that cooperation looks moribund.
Unfortunately, some of those US-trained forcesparticipated in last summer's coup that deposed elected President Salem Bazoum. Things deteriorated further last month aftera US delegation visit led by envoy Molly Phee, when Niger's junta announced on state TV that flights from the American-built airbase were illegal and declared the US military presence as “unrecognized.”
Niger’s regime follows the pattern set by neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, which have also distanced themselves from traditional Western allies, cultivated ties with Moscow, and shunned the ECOWAS bloc. We’ll be watching to see whether Niger’s new alliance with Russia emboldens the juntato further delay a return to civilian rule, which is supposed to happen by 2026.FILE PHOTO: Chinese Coast Guard vessels fire water cannons towards a Philippine resupply vessel Unaizah May 4 on its way to a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, March 5, 2024.
On Saturday, a Chinese coast guard vessel blocked two Philippine government ships near the country’s coast forover eight hours. The incident occurred at the boundary of the nine-dash line, a demarcation Beijing uses to assert its claims to the waters butwhich was dismissed by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016.
This latest dustup appears to be Beijing’s response to last week’s high-profile Washington summit between US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines.The three leaders expressed “serious concerns about the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) dangerous and aggressive behavior in the South China Sea,” and Marcos Jr. stressed the trilateral relationship would “change the dynamic” in the region.
“Any attack on Philippine aircraft, vessels, or armed forces in the South China Sea will invoke our Mutual Defense Treaty,” Biden said.
Beijing has already engaged in risky blockings and using water-cannon attacks that have injured sailors. The Philippines has become increasingly vocal about its sovereignty claims, especially around strategic areas including Second Thomas Shoal, a point of recurring friction between Philippine forces and the Chinese Coast Guard. On Thursday, China’s foreign ministry accused Marcos of reneging on a bilateral understanding on the Second Thomas Shoal issue, setting the scene for Saturday’s standoff – and, no doubt, more to come in future.FILE PHOTO: Ukrainian servicemen of the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade fire a 120-mm mortar towards Russian troops at a frontline, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the town of Bakhmut, Ukraine March 15, 2024.
Ukraine’s situation on the eastern front line has “significantly worsened,” wrote the country's top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, on Saturday. Kyiv fears that Moscow might be planning an assault on Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city in the north-east, as well as a major attack in late spring or summer in the regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia.
Simultaneously, the conflict is precipitatinga severe energy crisis, not just in Ukraine but across Europe. Andriy Kobolyev, former CEO of Ukraine’s Naftogaz, warned of spikes in European energy prices as Russian forces target Ukraine's energy infrastructure. “Russia is trying to wage a global energy war," Kobolyev stated, stressing the urgent need for weapons to defend energy assets. But this week, European nations rejected requests for more Patriot and SAMP/T air defense systems.
And the attacks keep coming, thanks to help from Beijing. China is reportedlysupplying Russia with crucial components for its defense equipment, enabling Moscow to ramp up production of missiles and drones. The US has asked Chinese firms to desist, but Beijing maintains it is not taking a side in the conflict, despite thecozy relationship between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin..