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People shout slogans in front of the portrait of Sirri Sureyya Onder, a prominent pro-Kurdish party lawmaker and key figure in Turkey’s tentative process to end the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party’s (PKK) insurgency who died on Saturday at age 62, during his funeral in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 4, 2025.
41: The revolution will not be finalized, as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a militant rebel group in Turkey, formally disbanded after a 41-year insurgency against the Turkish government. The original goal was to create an independent Kurdish state, but the group’s weakened position in Iraq and Syria forced it to declare a ceasefire in March, before ultimately dissolving. Turkey hasn’t fully secured peace, yet: it must now establish how to disarm the rebel group.
130: In March, the Burkina Faso military and its allied groups killed at least 130 ethnic Fulani civilians, per a Human Rights Watch report, as the government’s response to the Islamist insurgency turns vicious. Leaders of the Fulani, who are a Muslim community, deny any links with the Islamist militants. The massacre triggered reprisal killings, with insurgent groups – who control around 40% of the country – murdering at least 100 civilians in villages they believe are helping the government.
59: A group of 59 white Afrikaners landed in the United States from Johannesburg on Monday, after the Trump administration granted them refugee status in response to what they see as “racial discrimination” from South Africa’s government – the Rainbow Nation denies these claims. The move further escalates the rising tensions between Pretoria and Washington.
100,000: In the latest sign of rising anti-immigrant sentiment in the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced measures to reduce annual net immigration by 100,000 by 2029. The plan includes banning recruitment of care workers from abroad, cutting access to visas for skilled workers, and increasing English language requirements for all work visas. Net immigration reached a record 906,000 in the 12 months to June 2023.
4: Albanian Prime Minister Edi Ramasecured a fourth term in office after his party dominated Sunday’s parliamentary elections. With 94% of ballots counted, Rama’s Socialist Party won 52%, while opposition leader Sali Berisha’s Democratic Party sits on just 34%. It marks a setback for the MAGA message: Berisha had relied on the help of major Trump allies, to no avail.
83: As if replicating the plot of an Indiana Jones film, Argentina’s Supreme Court discovered Nazi documents among its archives that included propaganda material aimed at spreading the fascist ideology across the country. The material is believed to be part of the 83 packages that the German embassy in Tokyo sent to Buenos Aires on the “Nan-a-Maru” steamship in 1941. Argentina was a safe haven for the Nazis after World War II, though some – Adolf Eichmann, most infamously – were tracked down and brought to justice.
Lots of headline announcements from Trump himself, and the biggest one in terms of the markets is not necessarily something you'd call a success. It's more a backtrack, but a useful backtrack nonetheless and one that we're all glad to see. Trump, of course, kicked off this global trade war with pretty much everyone, but especially with the Chinese, where he was essentially talking about a decoupling between the two largest economies in the world, raising tariffs against China to 145%, meaning nobody's going to buy any goods from China. Chinese doing the same against the Americans, raising up to 125%.
China was not going to pick up the phone to call Trump, and he was surprised that they hit back. He thought that this was going to lead to a negotiation and much more careful caution from the Chinese. As you saw from a lot of American allies around the world, not the case. And so, not only did he get his own administration to respond and talk with the Chinese and say, "We'd like to engage in person." But also sent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer, US Trade Rep, by far the most capable on the trade side that are senior and report to Trump.
And after a couple of days of meetings in Geneva, we've got 90 days off, and we have 125% off the American tariffs. So, we're at, what? 30% or 115% off, or 30% for the Americans, 10% for the Chinese. In other words, trade can happen again. And a joint statement from the US and Chinese governments, which is very rare under any government, frankly, with China, certainly with an adversary, to show that there is no daylight on the desire to pull back against decoupling, and also to engage directly between the two countries over the coming months to try to ensure that these trade gets to a mutually more respectful place.
Now, what's interesting is Trump had been trying to push so many allies around the world to align with the US on decoupling from China as part of the trade negotiations, that obviously, that piece of the negotiations isn't going to move anywhere. Japan pushed back, most countries aren't interested, certainly not the Europeans. Now, it's not really going to be credible, and I think Trump will quietly drop it, and the markets of course shoot up as a consequence of that.
So, two steps forward, two steps back. We're kind of where we were before Liberation Day on US-China. Yes, there are some additional sectoral tariffs, and this is going to be costly. But on the bilateral relationship, frankly, not an enormous amount has actually changed. Okay, so that's not a win.
What do I mean that he's had successful time on the global stage? Well, internationally, there've been a bunch of wins. India, Pakistan, significant escalation on the back of this Kashmiri terrorist incident, with lots of Indians getting killed, Indian civilians. The Indians respond by hitting Pakistani terrorist targets, according to India, but in civilian locations, so they don't mind that Pakistani civilians are getting killed. Then Pakistan responded, then India responded, and the Americans stepped in and facilitated a ceasefire.
Marco Rubio probably his single win on the global stage that we've seen so far, helps him with Trump. He also announced there would be trilateral engagement going forward between the countries. That's not going to happen. But we are, I would say again, at the status quo ante on Pakistan, India at this time, the Americans facilitated.
The Houthis had been threatening US and other shipping through the Red Sea. The Americans decided to blow up lots of Houthis military leadership capabilities. That was the Signal Gate leak that came out. And a few weeks after that, the Houthis said, "Okay, we won't attack the shipping lanes anymore, as long as you stop attacking us." That's a win for the United States. It was facilitated by Iran, who's engaged in direct bilateral negotiations with the United States right now, and Iran in a much worse position geopolitically, the Gulf states would love to see that happening. They're hosting Trump this week. That's likely to progress significantly. Maybe even Trump will meet with high-level Iranians. We'll see if we get a surprise there. But nonetheless, that's all in a much better position than it was before. And so too relations between the Gulf States and the US. Saudi US bilateral relations, including a willingness to allow for nuclear energy and development in Saudi Arabia.
Lots of new investments that are going to be announced with all three stops. Yes, there's this unfortunate announcement of a gift that shouldn't be accepted from Qatar of a 747. And then that's going to wrap up the first trip that Trump makes internationally, as well as the release of the sole remaining US hostage in Gaza. And that had been driven by the Israelis together with the US and the US angry with Netanyahu, who's continuing to engage in a war and taking over lots of territory in Gaza and not allowing humanitarian aid in. The Americans deciding they were going to negotiate directly for themselves, and with success before that trip.
So, all of those things, announcements that are frankly welcome. And the one big conflict where we're not seeing progress is Russia, Ukraine. It is plausible that there will be a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky on Thursday. Zelensky is calling for it, the Europeans, the Americans are calling for it directly. Let's see if Putin actually shows up, or if he says, "I want to do a lower level meeting to start." Either way, it looks very unlikely that he's going to actually accept a ceasefire on terms that would be remotely acceptable by the Ukrainians, the Europeans, or even the United States, which means not much progress there.
But at least Trump not willing to do a deal with Putin absent a ceasefire, which means the Americans, the Europeans, and even the Ukrainians are more aligned today than they were a week ago, two weeks ago. Certainly during that shambolic Zelensky visit to the Oval just a few weeks back. So, good news over the weekend, and some good news coming this week. And I'm personally delighted to be able to report some things that are positive about what's happening in Trump administration, as opposed to things that are breaking and things that are falling apart. Let's hope that continues. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Albanian opposition leader Sali Berisha casts his vote at a polling station during parliamentary elections in Tirana, Albania, on May 11, 2025.
For all the talk of a US-Europe split, US President Donald Trump’s supporters are rather invested in elections on the continent. Tesla owner Elon Musk advocated for Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead of that country’s election in February. Donald Trump Jr. met one of the nationalist presidential candidates ahead of Romania’s election, while favorite George Simion now actively courts his father.
Now it’s Albania’s turn. Trump’s former co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita has been boosting former Prime Minister Sali Berisha’s bid to return to power on the Adriatic Sea. LaCivita got a hand from the Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank behind Project 2025. The group “has been instrumental in helping Albania’s Democratic Party reshape its electoral program and platform,” according to Sokol Lleshi, a politics professor at the University of New York, Tirana, pitching traditional family values with a familiar slogan to match: “Make Albania Great Again.”
But will MAGA find a following in Albania? We’ll know by Tuesday, when the results of Sunday’s national election are expected.
Who’s in the race? Berisha, who leads the center-right Democratic Party (PD), ran against three-term incumbent Prime Minister Edi Rama, head of the center-left Socialist Party (PS). While the opposition leader recycled the MAGA message, Rama’s campaign centered on achieving accession to the European Union by 2030. Several other smaller parties hope to win some of the 140 parliamentary seats to gain influence.
Who’s going to win? With roughly 30% of the ballots counted, Rama is running away with it – the PS has garnered 53% of the vote thus far, while PD flounders on 34% – raising questions over the salience of the MAGA message in this Eastern European enclave. Hard-right parties have enjoyed success in Italy, Germany, Hungary and Romania, but plugging and playing this strategy into Albania isn’t as straightforward, in part because the country wants to join the EU.
“The Democratic Party has relied a lot on some of the ideological messages of the MAGA movement and Donald Trump,” said Lleshi. “So they are not talking too much or sufficiently enough, in my understanding, about EU integration.”
The Battering Ram-a. The current global conditions may make Tirana’s EU accession possible: With the White House distancing itself from Europe, the 27-member bloc is looking to strengthen its position, and its ranks. This underscores why the eccentric and artistic Rama is favorite to win a 4th term.
Just one problem. Corruption has tarnished Albanian politics ever since the country regained independence in 1991. This has stymied Tirana’s efforts to join the EU, since rooting out graft is a precondition for membership. Many of Rama’s allies have been found guilty of corruption, and several political leaders from other parties, including Berisha, face corruption allegations.
SPAK, Albania’s anti-graft body formed in 2019, is trying to root out this problem – it is one of the most trusted institutions in Albania.The opposition leader’s disdain for SPAK thus puts him out of sync with much of the electorate.
Middling MAGA. If Rama wins, this will mark the third recent foreign election where MAGA opponents have won. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney rode a wave of anti-American sentiment to win last month’s election, while Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese roared to victory over his MAGA-lite opponent last weekend. Though Rama’s message hasn’t been explicitly anti-American – the country has pro-American roots, dating back to President Woodrow Wilson’s support for Albanian independence after World War I – his expected victory suggests there are limits to transplanting the MAGA message abroad.
Outside of politics, what’s interesting about Albania? First of all, it has a rather distinctive flag, featuring a double-headed eagle on a sharp, red background (an inspiration for the Durmstrang Institute of Harry Potter fame). Its most renowned citizen is pop star Dua Lipa, although she was born and raised in London.
Dua could vote, too. A change in the voting rules means that everyone in the Albanian diaspora — which comprises over a million people — was able to draw a ballot for this election. However, only 245,000 of them requested a mail-in vote, of which 181,000 had been returned as of Sunday morning, per Lleshi. The professor says that gauging how the diaspora voted, however, is a fool’s errand.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer address the media after trade talks with China in Geneva, Switzerland, on May 11, 2025.
Mother’s Day is a time to build bridges, apparently, as the United States and China both agreed to slash tariffs by 115 percentage points each for 90 days following talks in Geneva over the weekend. US tariffs on Chinese imports will plunge from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will sink from 125% to 10%.
What’s spurring a settlement? Both countries’ economies havetaken a hit ever since the two countries started a trade war around a month ago.
Will businesses buy the truce? At the height of the US-China trade war last month, Apple said they will shift iPhone production to India. We’ll be watching to see if there’s any plans to reverse course.
Bloodbath or breakthrough? Ukraine demands truce before talks
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are tentatively scheduled for May 15 in Istanbul, where Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky says he’ll be waiting to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But Kyiv insists that an unconditional 30-day ceasefire take effect as of Monday – a condition Moscow has so far rejected.
What’s the White House view? US President Donald Trumpcalled on Ukraine to accept Russia’s offer to meet regardless of a truce, “to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH.”
But does Russia really want peace? Iran is reportedly preparing to send Fath-360 missile launchers to Moscow, though Tehran denies this. If true, it casts doubt on Moscow's commitment to ending the conflict.
Speaking of the Middle East, Hamas said it would freeEdan Alexander, the last living American hostage, ahead of Trump’s visit to the region this week. It’s unclear what Hamas is getting in return.
Doubts loom over Kashmir truce
India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire in Kashmir on Saturday after the worst fighting in the disputed region in over two decades. The US claimed to have brokered the deal; however, India downplayed its role while Pakistan lauded Washington’s involvement.
But can it hold? The current truce is fragile: leaders from each side said they were keeping the peace, yet explosions were reported in the area. There may be peace for now, but all parties have their work cut out to maintain it.
Vice President JD Vance participates in a Q&A with Munich Security Conference Foundation Council President Wolfgang Ischinger at the Munich Leaders' Meeting in Washington, DC, on May 7, 2025.
On the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, the transatlantic relationship feels more fragile than ever. It was barely three months ago that US Vice President JD Vance laid into some of America’s closest allies at the Munich Security conference, blasting Europe for policies he said could “destroy democracy,” and warning Brussels “there’s a new sheriff in town.”
"That broke some china” as former US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told me this week at a Munich Security Conference meeting in DC.
But just over 80 days later, as Smith and many of those same transatlantic leaders gathered in Washington for the stateside installment of the conference, the vibe has shifted -- for the better.
As former German Ambassador to the US Wolfgang Ischinger put it, after a panel discussion with Vance himself: “The reports of [our] death are greatly exaggerated.”
That famous Mark Twain quote sums up certain cautious optimism in the air. But Ischinger also warned that patching up the relationship would be a “difficult, probably slow, and maybe even painful procedure.”
What might that look like? Here are a few vibes to check over the coming months:
Vibe check 1: Is Europe going to spend more on defense?
Vance said at this week’s meeting that Trump now wants NATO allies to spend 5% of GDP on defense—more than double the current 2% target that many members already struggle to meet.
Prospects are good that the alliance’s members will deliver on that at an upcoming NATO summit in the Netherlands in June.
That's because, as the foreign minister of Estonia, a NATO member, told me, Europe needs to “be honest" that “the burden has been not shared in equal ways," and it's time for Europe to do its part.
Benedikt Franke, CEO and Vice-Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, told me that “money, money, money” is making him optimistic about a transatlantic rapprochement. “We see real money on the table [for defense] for the first time in a long time.”
Vibe check 2: Dialogue, dialogue, dialogue.
Vance’s return to the conference was itself not lost on European observers. Franke said “the willingness of the current administration to actually engage in a dialogue” is one of the biggest sources of optimism for him.
Watch for more transatlantic engagement that focuses less on combatively laying down terms for the relationship, and more on tackling shared challenges like securing a sustainable peace in Ukraine, managing economic and technological competition with China, and reaching a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear weapons development.
Vibe check 3: The art of the (trade) deal
Trade, of course, is one of the biggest challenges in the relationship right now. The EU this week readied fresh tariffs on more than $100 billion of US goods in case the Trump administration follows through on its plans to raise US levies on Europe from 10% to 20% in July.
Breaking the impasse on tariffs would be another strong sign of reconciliation. Ischinger sees a real prospect for a breakthrough, especially as the US is already sitting down for fresh trade talks with a much bigger rival, Beijing.
If Washington is having “meaningful trade discussions with China,” said Ischinger, “then eliminating the dispute between Europe and the US on trade issues should not be so difficult.”
But there’s a sticking point. The Trump administration generally prefers bilateral trade deals—a country-by-country approach that won't fly with the EU, which works as a bloc.
“They seem not to be aware of the legal situation in the European Union,” Ischinger says. “Even if they don't like this ganging up of 27 European countries, it just happens to be the fact of life and they'll have to deal with it.”
Overall vibe upshot: I left DC this week feeling a little lighter about the state of the world, with the sense that the transatlantic relationship is warming again.
But the hard work of refashioning that relationship in a way that acknowledges a significantly different US role begins now. Let’s see where we are in another 80 days.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks on the phone to US President Donald Trump at a car factory in the West Midlands, United Kingdom, on May 8, 2025.
When President Donald Trump announced a trade deal that will reduce US tariffs on UK cars and plane engines in return for greater access to the British market for American beef and chemicals, he singled out Prime Minister Keir Starmer for praise.
“The US and UK have been working for years to try and make a deal, and it never quite got there,” said Trump. “It did with this prime minister.”
The president’s comment twisted the knife into the UK Conservative Party, which tried — and failed — to achieve a trade deal with the Americans during its 14 years in power. It took Starmer, the Labour leader, to finally clinch the deal less than a year after entering office.
Starmer isn’t the only winner. Brexiteers cited the prospect of a US trade deal to further justify exiting the European Union. The deal caps a stellar week for Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, after his party made extraordinary strides in the local UK elections last Thursday.
There’s a caveat. The scope of the deal was somewhat limited, with many goods still subject to the 10% tariff — Trump said this rate was “pretty well set.” The UK tariff rate appears to have dropped, while the US one has risen, although the White House numbers can sometimes be off.
What’s Trump’s strategy? With this deal — the first the US has made since “Liberation Day” — it’s not clear whether the president’s main goal is protectionism or winning concessions from America’s allies.
The US did nab some wins from the pact, including access to UK meat markets, but they inked it with a country with which they already have a trade surplus. Trump thus achieved both of these goals, making it unclear where his priority lies.French President Emmanuel Macron talks with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa as they arrive to attend a joint press conference after a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on May 7, 2025.
Syria’s interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former jihadist whose forces overthrew the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad last December, met on Wednesday with French President Emmanuel Macron. It was his first trip to Europe.
The upshot: The French president said he would push for the lifting of EU sanctions – which have been in place since 2011 – if al-Sharaa continued on a path of reform and reconstruction that respected the rights of Syria’s religious minorities. He said he’d also lobby the US to follow suit.
The goal: France, with regional players Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, favors swift relief from Western sanctions against Syria to speed the rebuilding of a country wrecked by civil war and mass emigration.
But the US has been more cautious, giving Damascus a list of conditions for sanctions removal that include icing out Iran, expelling Palestinian groups, and giving the American military a free hand in Syria.
The bombshell: During the meeting, Al-Sharaa revealed Syria has been holding indirect security talks with Israel. That’s a big deal: since Assad’s fall, Israel has bombed Syrian military sites, expanded a “buffer zone” into the country, and conducted airstrikes on behalf of Syria’s Druze minority.
Any prospect of an accord with Israel – which is deeply suspicious of Damascus’ intentions – would significantly improve Syria’s prospects of stability and prosperity.