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Does acquiring nuclear weapons make your country safer? It’s a difficult question. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks back to the 1990s and a tale of two radically different nuclear—Ukraine and North Korea.
Ukraine inherited the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal after the Soviet collapse. They gave them up in 1994 in exchange for security assurances from the US, UK and Russia. But assurances aren't guarantees, and a decade later, Russia illegally annexed Crimea before launching its full-scale invasion in 2022. Meanwhile, North Korea abandoned diplomacy, pursued nuclear weapons, and lied to the world all along. Now it’s a global pariah, but the uncomfortable truth is nobody’s thinking of invading North Korea. So did Kyiv get played? Did Pyongyang make a smarter move? The contrast between Ukraine’s vulnerability and North Korea’s impunity seems stark. But the story is more complicated. Building nuclear weapons is a gamble, not a strategy. Watch Ian Explains to understand why and what it means for the growing nuclear threat in 2025.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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An armed PKK fighter places a weapon to be burnt during a disarming ceremony in Sulaimaniya, Iraq, July 11, 2025, in this screengrab obtained from a handout video.
Kurdish militants burn their own guns
In a symbolic ending to more than 40 years of rebellion against the Turkish government, fighters from the PKK — a Kurdish militia — melted a cache of weapons in a gigantic cauldron on Friday. Earlier this year jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan called for disarming as part of a process expected to deliver more cultural autonomy for Kurds, who make up 20% of Turkey’s population. The move shifts attention onto the future of affiliated Kurdish militias in Syria, as well as to Turkey’s parliament, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is courting support from Kurdish parties as he seeks to soften term limits.
Is the White House done with legislating?
A week after signing the One Big, Beautiful Bill into law, and just six months since taking office again, US President Donald Trump is reportedly done with pushing major legislation through Congress. As he goes into campaign mode ahead of the 2026 midterms, he will instead focus on key issues like trade and immigration via executive actions, which don’t require congressional approval but are susceptible to legal challenges. However, it seems not everyone is aligned: House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he still wants to pass two further budget reconciliation packages. Which is it? More bills or no more bills?
German constitutional court clash embarrasses Chancellor Merz
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government had to shelve a vote on appointing three judges to the Constitutional Court after one of them was accused – spuriously, it turned out – of plagiarism, and criticized by conservative coalition members for supporting abortion rights. Critics are likening the drama to US-style culture wars over the judiciary, and have warned it undermines the legitimacy of Germany’s top court. The debacle also reflects the fragility of Merz’s three-month-old coalition, which holds just a slim, 12 seat majority in the Bundestag.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Head of the Federal Service for Financial Monitoring Yury Chikhanchin at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on July 8, 2025.
At first glance, Russia has coped well under the weight of Ukraine-related Western sanctions. In 2024, its economy grew at a faster rate than every G7 country. Though Europe has gone almost entirely cold turkey on Russian oil and gas supplies, thirst for these resources in China and India, quenched by a shadow tanker fleet that helps evade those sanctions, has kept Russia’s energy trade stable.
Longer term, climate change can help. Warming temperatures will open new Russian lands to farming and boost its agricultural output. They will open new sea routes that lower Russia’s cost of commerce and bring revenue from transit fees imposed on others. Perhaps most importantly, the Kremlin has long claimed it can transition from its currently heavy reliance on oil and gas exports to deeper investment in wind, hydro, geothermal, biomass, hydrogen, and solar energy.
But the realities of Russia’s future are darkening.
Its economy has become addicted to war in Ukraine. Its growth over the past two years was fueled mainly by the tidal wave of military spending needed to eke out modest gains in what’s become a war of attrition. Military and security spending now make up about 40% of Russia’s total government expenditure. This spending surge is sending inflation into overdrive, forcing Russia’s central bank to raise interest rates to a record 21%, raising borrowing costs for businesses and slowing future investment. Manufacturing has slowed and ordinary Russians aren’t spending.
None of this will persuade President Vladimir Putin to cut a deal with Ukraine – and that’s Russia’s bigger problem. Current evidence suggests Putin intends to keep doubling down on a war that leaves a supposed great military power to take 1,000 casualties per day to make tentative gains of a few kilometers, to kill Ukrainian civilians, and to laud slow advances on individual towns and villages in a war that’s already dragged on for three years and four months.
In addition, while China and India remain eager to buy the energy Russia pumps out of the ground, they know the loss of Moscow’s best customers in Europe allows them to buy the product at a below-market price. China, with an economy nearly nine times larger than Russia’s, has done remarkably little to help Putin win his war. India has shifted large volumes of arms purchases from Russia to the United States. The Kremlin’s trade problem is compounded by the reality that even ending the war with Ukraine won’t bring mistrustful Europeans to return to their former volumes of trade with Russia.
But Russia’s biggest problems are found inside its borders. Longtime reliance on the revenue from exports of oil, gas, metals, and minerals has allowed Russia to avoid large-scale investment in the digital-age industries needed for an innovative 21st-century economy. The most recent credible measure of this comes from the Global Innovation Index 2024, produced by the World Intellectual Property Organization, a UN agency. According to the report, which measures entrepreneurship and innovation-driven growth and development across 133 countries, Russia ranks 59th in the world, behind Mauritius, Georgia, and North Macedonia.
This problem probably has many sources – an economy dominated by well-connected elites who don’t need innovation to remain wealthy, a lack of entrepreneurial tradition, and increased investment focus on a war Russia isn’t winning. But the larger challenge facing Russia is the depletion of the generation of young people that might help solve these problems. A report last month from the Center for Strategic and International Studies found “250,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine, with over 950,000 total Russian casualties.” That’s a tremendous blow for Russia’s potentially most productive generation, with no end of the sacrifice in sight. Here’s another: aware of both Russia’s long-term economic problems and the much more urgent problem of avoiding war, nearly one million Russians have fled the country in search of better opportunities since the earliest days of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia, a resource-rich country with 11 time zones and an economy about half the size of California’s, still depends almost entirely for its great-power claims on its stockpile of nuclear weapons, the world’s largest. But these are weapons that can only be used at high risk of self-annihilation, and Russia’s sophisticated arsenal of cyber-weapons is useful only for undermining other countries.
Worst of all, it’s hard to imagine any Kremlin change of direction toward creating a more dynamic and innovative Russia anytime soon. The war in Ukraine grinds on. For now, Putin and his enablers seem content to define Russia’s “greatness” solely by its ability to disrupt and punish others.
What We’re Watching: Kenya’s president cracks down further, UK and France open an atomic umbrella, Trump meddles in Brazil
Riot police officers fire tear gas canisters to disperse demonstrators during anti-government protests dubbed “Saba Saba People’s March,” in the Rift Valley town of Nakuru, Kenya, on July 7, 2025.
Ruto orders police to shoot looters as Kenya protest escalate
Amid ongoing anti-government protests, Kenyan President William Ruto has ordered police to shoot looters in the legs. The order is meant to stop attacks on businesses, but could lead to more casualties after 31 people were killed on Monday alone. The youth-led protesters want Ruto to resign over high taxes, corruption allegations, and police brutality. According to Mercy Kaburu, a professor of international relations at United States International University in Nairobi, Ruto’s government “is not at risk of collapse before the next general election” which is set for 2027. But, she cautions, he “could be threatened if nothing changes.”
United Kingdom and France to open their nuclear umbrella
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a landmark deal aimed Thursday at restricting the flow of migrants across the English Channel. But the cross-channel agreement that may draw more attention globally is a pledge from Europe’s only two nuclear-armed nations to extend their nuclear umbrellas to allies on the continent who face an “extreme threat.” This is a big step toward “common European defense” at a time when Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and uncertainty about the US long-term commitment to NATO have prompted more urgent action in Europe.
Trump uses tariffs to meddle in Brazil
US President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the US will slap 50% on Brazil starting on August 1. The reason? Trump blasted Brazil for its “unfair” treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a rightwing firebrand and close Trump ally who is currently on trial for allegedly plotting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election. Trump also cited an “unsustainable” US trade deficit with Brazil, though official data show the US actually runs a small trade surplus with Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil’s leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, reportedly blindsided by the announcement, has vowed to respond with reciprocal measures.
See below for Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take on what Trump’s move really means.
“Tech is a means to an end, not the end itself,” says Hovig Etyemezian, head of UNHCR’s Innovation Service.
Speaking to GZERO's Tony Maciulis at the 2025 AI for Good Summit in Geneva, Etyemezian explains how technology is helping address one of the world’s most urgent challenges: the record number of forcibly displaced people. As conflicts rise and resources shrink, UNHCR is using data, AI, and digital tools to improve services and empower refugee communities, but only when designed with those communities, not for them.
From funding refugee-led innovation to expanding digital literacy and connectivity, the agency is bridging analog proximity with digital solutions. But risks remain. “We never test technologies on people. We design solutions with people,” he says, emphasizing ethics, consent, and inclusion at every step.
This conversation is presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft, from the 2025 AI for Good Summit in Geneva, Switzerland. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical conversations on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves (right) crying as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer speaks during Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons, London, United Kingdom, on July 2, 2025.
A week is a long time in politics, so the expression goes. A year? Well that must feel like a lifetime – especially for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
It was just over one year ago that Starmer took up residence at 10 Downing Street. With a 174-seat majority in parliament, and the opposition Conservatives in shambles after their worst election ever, the new Labour PM seemed ready to hit the ground running with a center-left agenda of better healthcare, lower immigration, and economic growth that benefits everyone.
He’s stumbled out of the starting blocks.
Just last week Starmer suffered a ringing defeat on a key agenda item, failing to pass welfare reforms that would have saved a mere £5.5 billion ($7.5 billion) by 2030 – just a small fraction of the overall government deficit. Members of the prime minister’s own party had objected to the cuts to disability benefits. To make matters worse, Starmer’s Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves was seen crying in the House of Commons after the government had to gut key provisions of the legislation.
The debacle reflected larger problems for the prosecutor-turned-politician. Starmer has failed to revive the UK’s long-sputtering economy, struggled to make good on a promise to stop illegal migrant crossings by boat from mainland Europe (they are actually rising), and had little-to-no effect on long waits for National Health Service appointments and treatments. These issues have overshadowed the prime minister’s successes elsewhere, notably the trade deals with the US and India.
The result: the Labour Party is now polling at just 24%, and Starmer’s net approval rating is a crushing -40.
“I think of him more as a barrister than a politician,” Lord Gavin Barwell, who was former Prime Minister Theresa May’s chief of staff, told GZERO. “You deal with issues sequentially, like a barrister deals with one case at a time, [but then] you don’t have any kind of overall narrative about what the government is for.”
To be fair to Starmer, he inherited some of his troubles from his predecessors. The UK’s challenging fiscal situation and the turbulent international environment would be hard for any prime minister to address within a year. What’s more, while the Conservatives are in the wilderness, there is a resurgent opposition group in the form of Nigel Farage’s nativist Reform UK. It is now polling ahead of both Labour and the Tories, the two parties that have held a duopoly on power in the UK for nearly a century.
Even so, the prime minister has often been his own worst enemy. Polling data from the opinion-research firm Early Studies suggests the government’s priorities haven’t aligned with those of the voters, especially when it comes to cost of living – 15% of voters said it’s their top concern, making it the biggest singular issue of all, yet it attracts just 1% of parliamentary attention. What’s more, Starmer’s communication with Labour backbenchers has been lacking, so rebellions – like the one on the welfare bill – occur more frequently than they should.
“I've heard from a few Labour MPs that they've never spoken to him,” says Jon Nash, a fellow at the London-based think tank Demos. “It does feel like there’s a bad level of organization within the party.”
Ominous signs for centrists. Starmer’s struggles highlight a broader issue that centrist parties across the world face: they tend to work too methodically and timidly within a system that a growing number of voters think is broken, all-the-while focusing on short-term issues while glossing over longer-term ones. The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change conducts focus groups in most major Western democracies, and has found that the public’s frustrations are broad-based.
“There are these deep systemic trends where basically, voters and non-voters alike, just feel that around them is this pervasive sense of decline,” Ryan Wain, an executive director at TBI, told GZERO. “It’s mainstream politics’s job – I include the center-right in that, as well as the center left – to arrest and reverse that decline.”
And if centrist parties don’t reverse that decline, others are waiting in the wings to take their place, says Jon Nash of Demos.
“That inability to get anything done is what opens up the door to others coming along and saying, ‘Look, we’re going to do things differently. Vote for me, I’m a businessman,’ or, ‘vote for me, I’ll do something radical.’”
Reservists receive training during the annual Han Kuang military exercises in Taoyuan, Taiwan July 9, 2025.
22,000: Taiwan has mobilised 22,000 reservists to carry out its largest-ever military drills this week, with surface-to-air missiles and US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems as part of the maneuvers. When asked about the drills on Tuesday, the foreign ministry in Beijing – which considers self-governing Taiwan a part of China – called the exercises “nothing but a bluff.”
50%: US copper prices surged after President Donald Trump threatened on Tuesday to impose 50% tariffs on the metal. Copper is essential for home construction, car manufacturing, energy infrastructure, and data centers.
728: Russia launched a record 728 drones at Ukraine overnight, marking the third time in the last two weeks that Moscow has outdone itself. Last night’s attack came after Trump resumed shipments of critical air-defense weapons to Ukraine and declared he was tired of Putin’s “bullsh*t” on Tuesday.
400: A massive wildfire has reached the outskirts of Marseille, France’s second-largest city, prompting the evacuation of at least 400 people and injuring nine firefighters. At its peak, the fire spread at 1.2 kilometers per minute, driven by strong winds, dense vegetation, and steep terrain. Over 1,000 firefighters have been deployed to battle the blaze, which continues to threaten the area.