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People shout slogans in front of the portrait of Sirri Sureyya Onder, a prominent pro-Kurdish party lawmaker and key figure in Turkey’s tentative process to end the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party’s (PKK) insurgency who died on Saturday at age 62, during his funeral in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 4, 2025.

REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya

41: The revolution will not be finalized, as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a militant rebel group in Turkey, formally disbanded after a 41-year insurgency against the Turkish government. The original goal was to create an independent Kurdish state, but the group’s weakened position in Iraq and Syria forced it to declare a ceasefire in March, before ultimately dissolving. Turkey hasn’t fully secured peace, yet: it must now establish how to disarm the rebel group.

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- YouTube
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. A very good weekend for President Donald Trump. Certainly the most success he has had on the global stage since the start of his second term, and I expect that's going to continue with his trip to the Gulf this week. But let's start with the last few days.
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Albanian opposition leader Sali Berisha casts his vote at a polling station during parliamentary elections in Tirana, Albania, on May 11, 2025.

IMAGO/Matrix Images via Reuters Connect

For all the talk of a US-Europe split, US President Donald Trump’s supporters are rather invested in elections on the continent. Tesla owner Elon Musk advocated for Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead of that country’s election in February. Donald Trump Jr. met one of the nationalist presidential candidates ahead of Romania’s election, while favorite George Simion now actively courts his father.

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer address the media after trade talks with China in Geneva, Switzerland, on May 11, 2025.

Keystone/EDA/Martial Trezzini/Handout via REUTERS

Mother’s Day is a time to build bridges, apparently, as the United States and China both agreed to slash tariffs by 115 percentage points each for 90 days following talks in Geneva over the weekend. US tariffs on Chinese imports will plunge from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will sink from 125% to 10%.

What’s spurring a settlement? Both countries’ economies havetaken a hit ever since the two countries started a trade war around a month ago.

Will businesses buy the truce? At the height of the US-China trade war last month, Apple said they will shift iPhone production to India. We’ll be watching to see if there’s any plans to reverse course.

Bloodbath or breakthrough? Ukraine demands truce before talks

Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are tentatively scheduled for May 15 in Istanbul, where Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky says he’ll be waiting to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But Kyiv insists that an unconditional 30-day ceasefire take effect as of Monday – a condition Moscow has so far rejected.

What’s the White House view? US President Donald Trumpcalled on Ukraine to accept Russia’s offer to meet regardless of a truce, “to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH.”

But does Russia really want peace? Iran is reportedly preparing to send Fath-360 missile launchers to Moscow, though Tehran denies this. If true, it casts doubt on Moscow's commitment to ending the conflict.

Speaking of the Middle East, Hamas said it would freeEdan Alexander, the last living American hostage, ahead of Trump’s visit to the region this week. It’s unclear what Hamas is getting in return.

Doubts loom over Kashmir truce

India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire in Kashmir on Saturday after the worst fighting in the disputed region in over two decades. The US claimed to have brokered the deal; however, India downplayed its role while Pakistan lauded Washington’s involvement.

But can it hold? The current truce is fragile: leaders from each side said they were keeping the peace, yet explosions were reported in the area. There may be peace for now, but all parties have their work cut out to maintain it.

Vice President JD Vance participates in a Q&A with Munich Security Conference Foundation Council President Wolfgang Ischinger at the Munich Leaders' Meeting in Washington, DC, on May 7, 2025.

Munich Security Conference.

On the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two, the transatlantic relationship feels more fragile than ever. It was barely three months ago that US Vice President JD Vance laid into some of America’s closest allies at the Munich Security conference, blasting Europe for policies he said could “destroy democracy,” and warning Brussels “there’s a new sheriff in town.”

"That broke some china” as former US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told me this week at a Munich Security Conference meeting in DC.

But just over 80 days later, as Smith and many of those same transatlantic leaders gathered in Washington for the stateside installment of the conference, the vibe has shifted -- for the better.

As former German Ambassador to the US Wolfgang Ischinger put it, after a panel discussion with Vance himself: “The reports of [our] death are greatly exaggerated.”

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks on the phone to US President Donald Trump at a car factory in the West Midlands, United Kingdom, on May 8, 2025.

Alberto Pezzali/Pool via REUTERS

When President Donald Trump announced a trade deal that will reduce US tariffs on UK cars and plane engines in return for greater access to the British market for American beef and chemicals, he singled out Prime Minister Keir Starmer for praise.

“The US and UK have been working for years to try and make a deal, and it never quite got there,” said Trump. “It did with this prime minister.”

The president’s comment twisted the knife into the UK Conservative Party, which tried — and failed — to achieve a trade deal with the Americans during its 14 years in power. It took Starmer, the Labour leader, to finally clinch the deal less than a year after entering office.

Starmer isn’t the only winner. Brexiteers cited the prospect of a US trade deal to further justify exiting the European Union. The deal caps a stellar week for Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, after his party made extraordinary strides in the local UK elections last Thursday.

There’s a caveat. The scope of the deal was somewhat limited, with many goods still subject to the 10% tariff — Trump said this rate was “pretty well set.” The UK tariff rate appears to have dropped, while the US one has risen, although the White House numbers can sometimes be off.

What’s Trump’s strategy? With this deal — the first the US has made since “Liberation Day” — it’s not clear whether the president’s main goal is protectionism or winning concessions from America’s allies.

The US did nab some wins from the pact, including access to UK meat markets, but they inked it with a country with which they already have a trade surplus. Trump thus achieved both of these goals, making it unclear where his priority lies.

French President Emmanuel Macron talks with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa as they arrive to attend a joint press conference after a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on May 7, 2025.

REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq/Pool

Syria’s interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa, the former jihadist whose forces overthrew the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad last December, met on Wednesday with French President Emmanuel Macron. It was his first trip to Europe.

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