Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
News
What We’re Watching: Nvidia chips head east, Trump threatens tariffs on Russia, India balances alliances
Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, speaks during the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups at Porte de Versailles exhibition center in Paris, France, June 11, 2025.
US will end restrictions of AI chips exports to China, says Nvidia
The US-based chipmaker Nvidia is on a hot streak. After becoming the first ever company to be valued at $4 trillion, the firm said that the Trump administration ended its export limits on US-made H20 artificial-intelligence chips to China. The initial White House decision to curtail these exports, made in April, came after the Chinese firm DeepSeek released a powerful AI model that required far less computer power than its American cousins. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argued that these restrictions were counterproductive, because they spurred Chinese firms to develop their own chip industry. His argument appears to have resonated, and shares in Nvidia shot up 4% on Tuesday morning.
Trump threatens tariffs to force Putin into peace deal
US President Donald Trump increased pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine on Monday by imposing a 50-day deadline for Moscow to strike a peace deal or face 100% tariffs on the few goods still traded between the US and Russia. He also threatened harsh secondary sanctions — up to 500% tariffs — on any other countries still doing business with Moscow. That could in principle cripple Russia’s economy, but it would put the US at odds with major trade partners China and India, which still import most of their crude from Russia. Are people buying Trump’s threat? The ruble reversed quickly initial losses on the news, buoyed by the 50-day grace period and Trump’s tendency to extend deadlines on his most severe threats.
India’s juggling act
During a visit to Beijing this week for a gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, India’s lead diplomat Subrahmanyam Jaishankar praised China’s leadership of an organization it hails as an alternative to Western clubs like the G7. It’s another reminder that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, which is also a member of the Quad security group with the United States, Japan, and Australia, and buys large volumes of Russian crude oil, is working to protect solid relations with all the major players on the world stage. Relations with China, though improved, are the most difficult balancing act, given recent violence along disputed parts of the India-China border.
Malibu, California, USA: A pickup truck with a President Donald Trump decal and decorated in U.S. Flags drives on Pacific Coast Highway on July 4th in Malibu, California.
Even still, with six months under their belt, US allies and adversaries continue to be confounded by the pace of dynamics coming their way. The influx of volatility is largely treated as an unknown variable to be built into strategic conversations and planning. An imperative to hold space for the “known unknowns” that will require navigation and policy response. The United Kingdom’s 2025 National Security Strategy released in June, for instance, labels this moment “an era of radical uncertainty” with no “stable equilibrium” in sight.
For the US administration, dysregulation is part of the end game. The intention is keeping global stakeholders on their toes, or as the White House calls it, “Keeping America in the Driver’s Seat.”
Security sphere uneasiness
Without a clear sense of what lies ahead, the working global response is to brace for impact, hope the ripples emerging from the US are not directed your way, and when they are, to do the best to ride the waves. In Europe, where the memory of US Vice President JD Vance’s remarks at this year’s Munich Security Conference still brings a shudder, there is a fleeting sense of relief at surviving June’s NATO Summit unscathed. A commitment to invest 5% of annual GDP on core defense requirements and defense- and security-related spending by 2035 feels like a fair price to keep the US engaged. After a decade or so wandering through the wilderness and being chided by successive US presidents about fair dues, European capitals find themselves buoyed by a reenergized NATO alliance.
With the hurdle of the NATO Summit cleared, Europe returns its focus to another summer offensive in Ukraine. Initial optimism that a change in the US administration might provide exit ramps for the war has subsided. Trump’s own promises to bring the war to an end quickly have been frustrated by the realities of an intractable conflict and the limits of relational diplomacy. Amidst an intensifying Russian missile and drone campaign of late, Europe is not sure which messaging from Washington is noise and which is signal. Reporting that the US Defense Department would halt the delivery of air defenses and artillery to Ukraine as part of a stockpile review had a chilling effect. Trump’s subsequent critical comments of Russian President Vladimir Putin at a US Cabinet meeting, alongside plans to sell weapons bound for Ukraine to NATO allies, reduced some of Europe’s anxiety. But each time Europe thinks it is doing a two-step with Trump only to find itself facing radical uncertainty, the known unknowns leave a mark.
A cresting trade tidal wave
Alongside security, the other major wave rippling around the globe this summer is a trade tidal wave. Just under the wire, the Trump administration extended implementation of so-called “reciprocal tariffs” from July 9th to August 1st. According to the White House, the further pause was based on “information and recommendations from senior officials, including information on the status of trade negotiations.” Thus far, a “Liberation Day” target of 90 deals in 90 days has resulted in trade agreements with the UK and Vietnam and a temporary trade truce with China (even as it has imposed new export restrictions on rare earths).
While the Trump team will be privately disappointed by the number of deals achieved to date, it is unlikely to be discouraged. As the world looks to interpret what comes next on trade, global stakeholders would do well to hold firm to a couple of framing principles. The first is that the US administration is ideological on trade, and has positioned these ideals at the center of its current-term ambitions.
The second grounding principle is that the president views himself as dealmaker-in-chief. He prefers to anchor negotiations by naming a price early in the process: in this case the Liberation Day reciprocal tariff rates. The anchoring position may not be where negotiations land, but it has the effect of shifting perspectives and forcing behavioral change. Europe’s 2025 NATO defensive spend commitments provide Trump with proof that this approach (plus patience) works. Likewise, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s rescission of a digital services tax (DST), disfavored by the US administration, is another data point for Trump’s negotiating strategy. Canada, for its part, is being repaid for its cooperation with a renewed threat of 35% tariffs on US imports.
Given all its levers of power, the US administration has taken to a tariff-letter-writing campaign. South Korea, Brazil, Philippines, Malaysia and a dozen or so others have been the recipients of letters notifying them of US willingness to continue its trading relationship but on new terms. What gets overlooked by too narrow a focus on the latest trade threats, and viral memes suggesting “Trump always chickens out,” is that against the wider perspective the US administration has already succeeded. Whether Brazil is hit with 50% tariffs over Trump’s displeasure with former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s legal investigations, whether Japan’s government falls over the precariousness that the threatened 25% tariffs have wrought, whether copper imports face 50% duties now and pharmaceuticals 200% in a year’s time or not; trade is at the top of everyone’s priorities.
The Trump administration has set a target of a new Golden Age for the American people. Through adopting an elusive approach to security expectations and defensive support, unsettling the global trade infrastructure, exporting risk, the president makes clear the US will be driving the agenda. Everyone else is sitting in the passenger seat.
Hard Numbers: French prime minister on the ropes, Hong Kong dissidents appeal convictions, Lesotho MP accuses his king, & More
French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou speaks during a news conference to present a major public finance recovery plan in Paris, France, July 15, 2025.
€40 billion: French Prime Minister François Bayrou is set to present a 2026 budget Tuesday that aims to cut the size of the country’s 2026 annual deficit by €40 billion ($46.7 billion). However, all opposition parties are expected to reject the proposal – and that could spell the end for Bayrou’s minority government.
12: Hong Kong’s pro-democracy dissidents aren’t going to go gentle into that good night. Twelve of them have appealed their recent subversion convictions in a move that shines a fresh light on Beijing’s anti-democracy crackdown in the city. The case, which challenges China’s draconian 2021 national security law, is drawing international attention: foreign diplomats from over six countries were present at the trial. The appeals are expected to take 10 days.
59: Lesotho won independence from the United Kingdom 59 years ago, but one member of the tiny southern African nation’s parliament has accused its king of signing parts of the country away again – to its neighbor South Africa. The accusation stems from a decades-old border dispute, but the MP who leveled the charge now faces criminal charges for doing so. Lesotho gained notoriety in March when US President Donald Trump said “nobody has ever heard of” the country.
6: Six members of United Torah Judaism – an ultra-Orthodox political party – have quit Israel’s ruling coalition again over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s failure to guarantee military exemptions for yeshiva students. While Netanyahu has survived this once before, their departure leaves him with yet another slim majority in parliament.Chelsea players celebrate next to US President Donald Trump after beating Paris Saint-Germain in the Club World Cup final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on July 13, 2025.
On a muggy afternoon in New Jersey yesterday, a London-based, American-owned soccer club beat a Qatari-owned, French-based one to win the Club World Cup final, as Chelsea defeated Paris Saint-Germain 3-0. US President Donald Trump not only watched, but came down to the field for the trophy ceremony himself.
The United States hosted the tournament, which featured the world’s top soccer clubs, as a dress rehearsal for next year’s World Cup, which will pit national teams against each other in matches taking place across the US, Mexico, and Canada. As we look ahead to that tournament, the most-watched sporting event in the world, what did we learn from this year’s club tournament?
Donald Trump will embrace next year’s World Cup.
Just look at the trophy ceremony yesterday: the US leader descended from his box seats to hand the trophy to Chelsea captain Reece James, before standing among the team as they celebrated.
This is surprising to some degree: football is a global sport, and this was a global club tournament where none of the US-based teams advanced to the latter stages. The ticket prices were expensive and most of the games took place on the coasts. The tournament smacked of “globalism” and elitism — two things that sit uneasily with Trump’s America First styling.
But the president is also a born performer who wouldn’t miss a chance to be in the global spotlight.
Looking ahead to next year, expect the US president to cut a large figure in the World Cup tournament, even if that means jilting fellow hosts Canada and Mexico. If things go well, he’ll take the credit. If they don’t, he’ll almost certainly blame the neighbors. And at the very end of it all, don’t be surprised if he tries to throw a red MAGA hat on one of the winning side’s players – remember when the Qatari emir threw a traditional bisht robe on Argentine champion Lionel Messi during the trophy ceremony for the last World Cup in Doha?
This tournament tested the relationship between footballing authorities and the players.
Following the lead of many of the world’s top national football leagues, FIFA, the sports global governing body, wants players to play more and more games. Not only has it vastly expanded the Club World Cup – the tournament used to feature just 7 teams and was 10 days long, whereas this one gathered 32 teams and lasted a month – it has also increased the number of countries in next year’s World Cup to 48, up from 32.
The players are hitting back, voicing concerns about player welfare. It didn’t help that they had to play in the stifling American summer heat, nor that FIFA failed to even invite the players’ union Fifpro to a recent meeting about off-season breaks – the union also slammed the Club World Cup on Monday, as well as its organizers. Certain footballers like England’s Ben White have shunned international duty, and it’s possible that others may follow suit with the brutal schedule.
Could that affect whether some of the games top stars play in the World Cup next year? The world’s most celebrated athletes have labor disputes too.
Finally, international tensions will cloud next year’s tournament.
While the Club World Cup didn’t figure much in most Americans’ daily lives, next year’s tournament between international teams will dominate headlines and cities. The demand for tickets will be vastly higher, and thousands will come to support their teams from abroad.
Yet questions lurk about which fans will be able to attend next year, and which ones will want to attend.
However, Trump recently signed a travel ban that bars citizens from 12 countries from entering the United States. One of those countries is Iran, which has already qualified for the World Cup.
They might not be the only ones either. Haiti and Sudan could also qualify for the World Cup, yet both are on the travel ban list. What’s more, the Trump administration has warned another 36 countries – including likely World Cup qualifiers Egypt, Ivory Coast, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – that it may add them to the list if they don’t fix certain safety concerns.
FIFA President Gianni Infantino has been working hard to maintain the global aspect of the World Cup. He has also heaped praise on Trump each time he appears at the White House for a soccer-related event – he even attended the president’s second inauguration – as he hopes to keep the US president on board with his plans. With a travel ban already in place, and a possible expansion to follow, Infantino has his work cut out if he wants to keep soccer’s top tournament accessible to its most adoring and committed fans.
Servicemen from the mobile air defence unit of the 115th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fire a ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft cannon towards a Russian drone during an overnight shift, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kharkiv Region, Ukraine June 2, 2025.
Trump to unveil major new arms support for Ukraine
Apparently fed up with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unwillingness to pause an intensified air and ground offensive against Ukraine, US President Donald Trump says Washington US will provide Kyiv with Patriot missile systems and other powerful weapons. To skirt the need for approval from Congress, where support for Ukraine is contentious, Trump says the US will sell the weapons to NATO allies, who will then dispatch them to Ukraine. The package may also include long-range missiles. This is all bad news for Russia, which seems to be hoping that its relentless airstrikes will break the military stalemate and force concessions from Kyiv in eventual ceasefire talks.
The 92-year-old who wants to be president again.
Cameroonian President Paul Biya isn’t ready to throw in the towel just yet. The reclusive 92-year old has ruled for half a century, the second longest run in the world. Last year he had to dispel rumors that he was actually dead. Nonetheless, Biya announced yesterday that he will seek yet another seven-year term atop the central African country of 30 million, which is known globally for producing oil, cocoa, and soccer superstar Samuel Eto’o. Two of Biya’s ex-allies are running to replace him in the October election, but they’ll face a steep uphill battle in a country considered less democratic than Cuba.
Israel intervenes in Syria’s sectarian clashes
Israel on Monday said it launched airstrikes on so-far-unidentified tanks in southern Syria, amid ongoing clashes there between Sunni Bedouin tribes and Druze militias that have drawn in Syrian government forces as well. While Syria’s interior ministry claims government troops entered the region to “restore order”, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based war monitor, accused Syria’s security forces of siding with the Bedouins. Israel’s intervention could complicate ongoing efforts to negotiate a Syria-Israel security arrangement. Israel has previously warned Syria’s government against harming the country’s Druze minority – which supports Israel’s existence and has members serving in the IDF.Hard Numbers: Former Nigerian leader dies, Sinner avenges French Open loss, preliminary Air India crash probe, & More
Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari arrives for the Summit of Heads of State and Governments of the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) at the presidential wing of the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport Abuja, Nigeira June 11, 2015.
4: Italian tennis player Jannik Sinner defeated Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz in four sets in the Wimbledon final yesterday, claiming his fourth major victory, and avenging his extraordinary defeat to Alcaraz at the French Open last month. Sinner has faced controversy, though: he was suspended from tennis earlier this year for taking a performance enhancing drug, but the suspension was so short that he didn’t have to miss a single major tournament.
7: One of Ecuador’s most feared gang leaders has accepted extradition to the United States, where he will face seven charges related to drug smuggling and arms trafficking. Jose Adolfo Macias is currently serving a 34 year sentence in Ecuador, a country where gang violence has gotten so bad that the president has imposed a state of emergency. Macias escaped prison last January but was recaptured in June.
18,400: Air India now says that the pilots flying Flight 171, the London-bound flight that crashed last month in Ahmedabad and left at least 260 dead, had a combined 18,400 hours of flight experience. Yet a preliminary probe still leaves open the possibility of pilot error in the fatal crash: investigators said that the fuel was cut off to both engines, meaning the crash wasn’t due to mechanical failures or design flaws.Myanmar's military chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing leaves after a military parade on Victory Day, marking the 80th anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two, in Red Square in central Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2025.
23: At least 23 people were killed on Friday in an airstrike on a Buddhist monastery in northern Myanmar. The attack is believed to have been carried out by the country’s ruling military junta. Since seizing power in a 2021 coup, the junta has been locked in brutal civil war with several powerful rebel groups.
15%: The US State Department is about to lay off 15% of its 18,000 US-based staff, as part of an efficiency drive. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the move will make Washington’s foreign policy more agile, while critics say it will downsize America’s diplomatic capabilities at a critical moment.
$4 trillion: The AI chipmaker Nvidia has become the world’s first company valued at more than $4 trillion. Its remarkable rise in value is one of the fastest in Wall Street history, leaving its main domestic rivals Apple and Microsoft feeling.. Nvious indeed.
$20 million: Former Columbia University student and Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil filed a $20-million claim Thursday against the US government for damages incurred during his Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention. The lawsuit accuses ICE of false arrest and imprisonment, malicious prosecution, abuse of process, and intentional infliction of emotional distress. The Department of Homeland Security dismissed Khalil’s claims as “absurd.”
5,000: Gang violence has killed nearly 5,000 people in Haiti since last October alone, according to a new UN report. The Caribbean country has been mired in a deepening political, economic, and humanitarian crisis since the 2021 assassination of president Jovenel Moïse. An international police force sent to the island last year has failed to dislodge the gangs, which control large swathes of the capital, Port-au-Prince.