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UN General Assembly
Assad’s fall, Romania’s canceled election, Trump’s Taiwan approach, and more: Your questions, answered
How did Bashar Assad get driven out of Syria after more than 20 years in power? What are your thoughts on his replacements?
I was surprised that Assad fell. He’s been such an important client for both Iran and Russia for decades and received their immediate support when the rebels began their offensive. But this was a particularly opportune time for the rebels to strike. Assad’s powerful friends were both distracted in other arenas: Iran with Israel (in both Gaza and, more importantly for Iran, Lebanon) and Russia with Ukraine. Interestingly, there is one key throughline connecting the fall of Mosul (Iraq), Kabul (Afghanistan), and Damascus (Syria) — all three were held by conscript armies that were fed, equipped, and trained by corrupt regimes … and when attacked by fierce radical groups fled as quickly as they could.
On its face, the fall of one of the world’s most oppressive dictators should be good news. Assad’s war against his own people led to the deaths of over 500,000 Syrians and millions of refugees fleeing into Turkey and from there to Europe. But I’m not yet confident that what’s replacing his regime will be much better. The Turkish-backed militants in charge are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a former al-Qaida affiliate in Syria that formally cut ties with the terrorists but is still (as of now) labeled a terrorist organization by the United States and NATO. Turkey wasn’t all in on removing Assad (at first). If the regime change goes well (a big if), the real winner here will be Turkey, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sending millions of Syrian refugees back home, becoming the main influence on strategically important Syria, and leading the fight against the Islamic State. This would land Erdoğan in Donald Trump’s good graces if it leads to a withdrawal of American troops.
HTS is clearly serious about establishing itself as the new, legitimate government — and a policy (for now) of relative moderation and tolerance toward other groups in the country is making that easier. But there are still so many unknowns and reasons that this can go terribly wrong.
Can Romania just cancel an election?
The constitutional court decided it’s “better to ask for forgiveness than permission.” After a massive far-right influence campaign by external (well … Russian) forces on TikTok and other social platforms was uncovered, Romania became the first democracy to ever cancel an election because of a disinformation campaign. This move will land the country in hot water regardless of the results of the rescheduled election. The court is viewed as highly politicized, so the decision will ultimately undermine it and whoever the future president may be – unless the far-right fringe candidate is allowed to run, and win, again.
How could President Trump’s plan to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine on “day one” impact China’s approach to Taiwan?
Whether China will push to undermine the cross-strait status quo during Trump’s second term is still up for debate. But Trump’s transactional approach to the war in Ukraine won’t affect China’s approach to Taiwan, at least in the near term. Beijing is still several years away from being able to credibly launch an invasion and take over the self-governing democracy. For now, China’s leaders are much more focused on regaining their own economic footing. That said, President-elect Trump’s interest in defending an island thousands of miles from the United States (and incredibly close to mainland China) is questionable at best. Many of his advisors care a great deal about Taiwanese sovereignty as a matter of US national security and longstanding American values, but Trump himself is much more interested in the country’s bilateral trade balance with the US.
What does Russia after Putin realistically look like?
If Vladimir Putin dies tomorrow, don’t expect a seismic shift at the Kremlin. Far more likely, his replacement would be another strongly anti-Western, nationalist leader who would fill the vacuum left by Putin’s departure. Such a successor would likely be more risk-averse, having to derive legitimacy and maintain power through the support of the country’s military, intelligence, and security leaders. It’s hard to imagine a dramatic shift in Russia’s geopolitical orientation when most of the country feels like the United States and “the West” have been out to squash their country’s power for decades.
Could a multi-party proportional representation system fix American politics?
America’s two-party system provides unique challenges for government representation by fostering an “us vs. them” tribalist sentiment, dividing the country into only two camps. It would be harder to immediately brand the opposing party as “the enemy of the state” if Americans had more choices. So, a shift to a multi-party system would allow a broader spectrum of ideologies into DC, and across the country, that would more closely reflect the diversity of the country’s population as a whole, which I think would be a constructive development. That said, it's hard to see how we could ever get from here to there given the stronghold on American politics (and the insane amount of funding) that the current duopoly has.
Why do you always defend the United Nations?
Some may find it controversial, but I’m proud of the United Nations. A truly global institution created by the United States out of the rubble of World War II, the UN charter reflects the very best of American values. As an institution, the UN no doubt has problems. The Security Council (and its veto powers) reflects a geopolitical order that no longer exists, lacks representation, and is accordingly broken. In the General Assembly, each country (no matter how small) has one vote but without enforcement power is generally weak and ineffective. Countries vote and veto in ways many of us wish they didn’t (but you should blame those countries, not the UN, for that).
What gets lost in the critiques of the bureaucracy of the United Nations is the amount of good that the organization does on a global scale, and with limited expenses (which, by the way, is where most of American funding for the United Nations is spent). The World Health Organization, World Food Organization, UNICEF, and other UN arms are systematically looking out for the world’s poorest and most vulnerable in ways most singular countries couldn’t be bothered to do alone.
Today, the world is heading to a post-carbon energy future, and that’s in no small part due to the architecture set up by the United Nations. Plus, new initiatives like the creation of a global framework for artificial intelligence (which I’ve been happy to be a part of) signal more positive developments are still to come on the only stage where every country in the world can have a voice.
What is on your radar over the next 24 months and not being discussed enough?
While there’s constant talk about artificial intelligence impacting our daily lives, the deployment of large-scale AI applications to an individual’s every dataset is not being discussed nearly enough. Personalized decisions or predictions based on human behavior patterns ascribed in large datasets are coming our way shortly. Before you know it, we will all have tools that will change humanity as we know it — in productive ways and post-human ways.
Where do you get your news, and what news sources do you trust?
As you might expect, the folks at Eurasia Group and GZERO Media act as my North Star when news breaks. With about 250 brilliant employees scattered across the globe working tirelessly to understand the inner workings of their areas of expertise, they bring priceless insight into what’s going on in the world on any given day. More broadly, it’s helpful for people to look outside their bubbles and read news coverage from outside their country of origin. For me, the Canadians (CBC), Germans (DW), Japanese (NHK), Arabs (Al Jazeera, etc.), and others cover the world in a much more effective way than the coverage we get from one hour of insular news coverage on cable television (or even from sitting down with the New York Times or Wall Street Journal).
What are your thoughts on pineapple on pizza?
Well, that depends. I’ll allow pineapple if there’s also ham and something spicy on top like jalapenos or chili flakes. Even then, I can probably think of 20 other things that I’d rather have as a pizza topping. Still, pineapple is preferable to cuttlefish – a Japanese fan favorite.
Are you hiring?
Eurasia Group is always looking for new talent – not just in our New York office but around the world. I am not personally involved in hiring, though, which is probably for the best. Thankfully we have a CEO and management team who make running the firm look easy. We’d be nowhere near as successful without them. Left to my own devices, I might run us into the ground. Ask anyone at Eurasia Group, they’ll totally agree with me.
From the SDG Lounge inside the United Nations headquarters during the 79th General Assembly, America Ferrera reflected on the powerful impact of her monologue from the film Barbie, which captivated global audiences. Speaking with GZERO’s own Tony Maciulis during a broader discussion on the power of local and grassroots activism, Ferrera highlighted the unique ability of art to connect with people, contrasting it with political speeches, which can feel distant and agenda-driven. Ferrera emphasized that Barbie—despite being a film about a doll—sparked conversations on important themes like patriarchy and gender equality. With its widespread success, Ferrera believes the film demonstrated how storytelling can resonate across diverse audiences, fostering engagement and dialogue in ways that traditional approaches might not.
For more on GZERO's UNGA coverage, click here.
AI’s impact on healthcare is expected to outpace education, according to Microsoft’s Brad Smith. AI is revolutionizing drug discovery and precision medicine, flowing naturally to doctors. But education evolves more slowly—tools alone aren't enough. It requires buy-in from teachers, students, and families. Smith emphasizes that while technology offers potential, true progress happens when people are brought along together on the journey, ensuring AI serves society.
Smith spoke during GZERO’s Global Stage livestream, “Live from the United Nations: Securing our Digital Future,” an event produced in partnership between the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, or CRAF’d, and GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft.
The headquarters of United Nations is pictured in New York on Aug. 1, 2022.
GZERO was on the ground at UN headquarters in Manhattan all last week as the General Assembly discussed the most pressing issues affecting the world. It was quite a whirlwind, but here are the broad strokes of what went down:
- Israel expresses defiance. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave an intense speech on Friday defending his country’s military campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon. His remarks came the day after Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbascondemned Israel for “launching wars of genocide” and Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bouhabib called on Tel Aviv to halt its strikes on his country. Efforts to forge a Lebanon cease-fire on the sidelines of the UNGA came to naught.
- Ukraine presents a “victory plan.” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky came to New York with a very different attitude toward his country’s conflict. He asked his allies to give him the weapons — and the permissions — he needed to inflict damage deep behind Russian lines. US President Joe Biden used his speech to urge Ukraine’s allies to continue their support, asking those whose enthusiasm is flagging, “Will we walk away and let a nation be destroyed?”
- Time for a new Security Council? The UN’s most powerful body was organized during a very different time in global politics, and the lack of permanent representatives from Africa, Latin America, or Asia has eroded the UNSC’s credibility. Secretary-General António Guterres said now is the time to bring an African country onto the body, and Liberian Foreign Minister Sara Beysolow Nyanti told GZERO’s John Haltiwanger doing so would bring perspectives that are too often ignored at the upper echelons of the international community.
- AI, oh my! GZERO’s very own Ian Bremmer was part of the body that released the first report to outline a truly global approach to the challenges posed by AI. The report asked the UN to begin working on a “globally inclusive” system for AI governance, called on governments and stakeholders to develop AI in a way that protects human rights, and made seven recommendations. More here.
- GZERO also organized a Global Stage livestream in coordination with the UN’s Complex Risk Analytics Fund (CRAF’d) entitled “Live from the United Nations: Securing Our Digital Future,”bringing together experts from across industry and government, including International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and Czech President Petr Pavel, to discuss the best direction for this revolutionary technology.
AI for Good is more than a buzzword—it's a powerful tool tackling global challenges like food security, disaster response, and water conservation. Microsoft’s Brad Smith highlights real-world examples, such as using AI to analyze water data in Kenya, offering actionable solutions for governments and communities. Through collaborations with universities and NGOs, AI is driving progress on the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, turning technology into a force for societal improvement.
Smith spoke during GZERO’s Global Stage livestream, “Live from the United Nations: Securing our Digital Future,” an event produced in partnership between the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, or CRAF’d, and GZERO Media’s Global Stage series, sponsored by Microsoft.
Disinformation is running rampant in today’s world. The internet, social media, and AI — combined with declining trust in major institutions — have created an ecosystem ripe for exploitation by nefarious actors aiming to spread false and hateful narratives. Meanwhile, governments worldwide are struggling to get big tech companies to take substantive steps to combat disinformation. And at the global level, the UN’s priorities are also being hit hard by these trends.
“We can't bring about and generate stability in fragile environments if populations are turning against our peacekeepers as a result of lies being spread against them online. We can't make progress on climate change if people are being led to believe first of all, that maybe it doesn't even exist, or that it's not as bad as they thought, or that it's actually too late and there's nothing that they can do about it,” Melissa Fleming, the UN's Under-Secretary-General for Global Communications, told GZERO in a conversation at the SDG Media Zone during the 79th UN General Assembly.
“The UN alone cannot tackle these problems without civil society, without people. And the people are what drives political agendas. So it's really important for us to work on our information ecosystems together,” Fleming added.
Though Fleming said that many in the UN are excited by AI's myriad potential benefits, she also emphasized the serious problems it’s already posing in terms of accelerating the spread of disinformation—particularly via deepfakes.
“We've spent a lot of time also trying to educate the public on how to spot misinformation and disinformation and how to tell if a photo is real or if it is fake. In the AI information age, that's going to become nearly impossible,” Fleming said.
“So we're calling on AI actors to really create safety by design, and don't leave it only to the users to be able to try to figure out how to navigate this. They are designing these instruments, and they can be part of the solution,” she added.
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis spoke with Annemarie Hou, Executive Director of the UN Office for Partnerships, which conducted the campaign, to learn more about the survey, and why there are reasons for hope in the face of so many challenges. An overwhelming 85% of women identify themselves as advocates for women’s rights and believe women’s representation will improve in the next decade. Despite issues like climate, conflict, peace and justice still being top concerns, women are still optimistic.