Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
Economy
An American flag flutters over a ship and shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro California, U.S., May 13, 2025.
Donald Trump’s supporters like to tout his 1987 book, The Art of the Deal, when they discuss his trade gamesmanship, but, a month after “Liberation Day,” it is getting harder for them to convince skeptical Americans that he is winning more than they are losing.
On Monday, the White House announced a breakthrough in trade talks with China, but experts note that American negotiators appear to have won few concessions after a month of damaging uncertainty for US business. The on-again-off-again tariffs have rattled small business owners and stoked fears of a recession.
The announcement of a partial reprieve — there is still a 30% tariff on most imports from China — was greeted as good news by shippers, who had shifted cargo vessels to other routes, but uncertainty around the future of the relationship remains high, which discourages investment.
The editorialists at the Wall Street Journal think Trump may have learned that his capacity to play chicken with China is not as strong as he thought it was, which may weaken the internal faction of China hawks led by Peter Navarro, senior counselor for trade and manufacturing.
The remaining tariffs still give Trump leverage over other leaders, since many countries want to keep selling into the American market, but opinion polling shows that voters are skeptical and fear Trump’s tariff policy will stoke inflation. Since the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t have to worry about midterm elections, and the US president does, they seem to have decided they can outwait him, which may limit how far he can push his luck.
Shipping containers from China are seen at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro, California, U.S., May 1, 2025.
With US-China trade grinding to a halt, President Donald Trump told ABC News on Sunday that he would lower the 145% tariff imposed on China “at some point,” explaining that “otherwise you could never do business with them.” Beijing has expressed willingness to start talks if Washington is “prepared to … cancel its unilateral tariffs.” So China is playing a game of chicken, and Trump hasn’t quite swerved out of the way.
“There’s no clarity around what Trump wants from China,” says Eurasia Group’s Lauren Gloudeman. “It’s been a huge source of frustration for the Chinese side because since November they have been seeking to get that question answered.”
Beijing isn’t playing ball like Canada or Mexico, which made superficial concessions to Trump to postpone tariffs. China retaliated with 125% tariffs of its own and then moved to protect vulnerable parts of its economy by quietly issuing a series of exemptions on important US imports like aircraft engines, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
“China’s leadership cannot be seen as being coerced into giving in to Trump’s tactics,” says Gloudeman, explaining that Beijing is already facing the worst-case scenario for bilateral trade. “It’s quite insulting and humiliating, and the broader strategy for China is counting on Trump to back down first.”
FILE PHOTO: A man walks past the offices of the New York State Department of Labor in the Queens borough of New York City, NY, January 8, 2021.
241,000: In another sign of trouble for the limping US economy, weekly first-time jobless claims surged to a higher-than-expected241,000 this week. Continuing claims, which provide a broader view of layoff trends, rose to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021.
77: According to a new poll from YouGov,77% of Germans favor benefit cuts for Ukrainian refugees. Ukrainians who arrive in Germany after April 1, 2025, will be treated as “asylum-seekers” rather than “refugees,” and they’ll receive significantly lower benefit payments as a result. Just 11% of those surveyed disagreed with this change. More than a quarter of Ukrainians who have fled their country are now in Germany.
1 of 12: The Vatican is one of just 12 governments — and the only one in Europe – that recognize Taiwan as a country. But without explanation, Taiwan’s president, William Lai, did not attend the funeral for Pope Francis, though a former vice president was in attendance. There is now much speculation in Taiwan on whether Lai will be present when the next pope is inaugurated, or whether pressure from Beijing is forcing the Vatican to rethink its ties with Taiwan.
20,000: The US Department of Veterans Affairshas ended a new mortgage-rescue program that has helped some 20,000 veterans avoid foreclosure on their homes. This news comes at a time when nearly 90,000 VA loans are well past due, with 33,000 of those already in the foreclosure process.
2: A runaway kangaroo in the US state of Alabama was involved in a two-car collision on an interstate highway this week. The animal, named Sheila, was captured unharmed by state troopers and the bouncing beast’s owner. No word yet on whether Shiela will face justice in a kangaroo court.Visite d’Etat de M. XI Jinping, Président de la République populaire de Chine, en France en presence de Ursula Von der Leyen
5: China lifted sanctions on five European Union lawmakers on Wednesday as Beijing seeks to balance the growing trade war with the United States by warming ties with Europe. The sanctions were originally imposed on members of the European Parliament’s Subcommittee on Human Rights in relation to European condemnations of human rights abuses against Uyghur minorities in Xinjiang.
500: Two Harvard University reports on anti-Muslim and antisemitic sentiment on campus released Monday stretched to over 500 pages cumulatively, noting that sizable minorities of Muslims (47%) and Jews (15%) did not feel physically safe. The reports, which were commissioned before the Trump administration took office, also showed that 92% of Muslims and 61% of Jews feared professional and academic repercussions for expressing political beliefs.
18: Turkish police have arrested 18 municipal employees in Istanbul as part of a growing crackdown against city Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, who was imprisoned last month. Imamoğlu is widely considered the only opposition figure able to go toe-to-toe with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the next presidential election, but legal obstacles may effectively bar him from running. The municipal employees were among a group of 52 detained over the weekend, and are accused of taking bribes and participating in criminal conspiracy.
1 billion: Argentines deposited $1 billion in US dollars into their bank accounts over the last eight business after the government lifted restrictions on buying US currency following five years of strict controls. The dollar’s relative value has been sliding under the Trump administration and hit a three-year low last week after the president repeatedly criticized the chair of the Federal Reserve.
350,000: What stretchy inanimate thing killed 350,000 people in 2018? One word. Are you listening? Plastics. More specifically, chemicals that are added to the plastics that we encounter in everyday items like food packaging, lotions, and shampoos. A new study suggests that these “phthalates,” as they’re called, contributed to hundreds of thousands of deaths from heart disease, especially in emerging economies where middle-class consumption has grown rapidly in recent decades.
People bathe in the sun under parasols on a beach near the city of Larnaca, Cyprus, on August 11, 2024.
15,000: The United Arab Emirates is literally helping Cyprus navigate troubled waters by providing portable desalination plants to the Mediterranean island free of charge so it can supply enough water to the deluge of tourists set to visit this summer. The Emirati nation’s plants will reportedly produce 15,000 cubic meters of potable water per day. It’s unclear if the UAE is receiving anything in return – it seems happy to go with the flow.
$582 billion: China informed the United States that it must “completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures” if it hopes to begin talks over trade. Beijing had previously said that it was open to talks, without preconditions. However, on Friday, Reuters reported that Beijing would exempt some critical goods from its 125% and is asking its firms to identify imports they need to continue functioning --- though it stopped short of publicly making the first move in trade war de-escalation. Total trade between the two superpowers was $582 billion in 2024, but the sweeping new tariffs that each has slapped on the other is likely to force this number down.
2: In the latest clash between the Trump administration and the courts on immigration, the White House moved a Venezuelan man from Pennsylvania to Texas — possibly preparing to deport him — right after a judge ruled that the government couldn’t remove him from the commonwealth or the United States. The man, who wasn’t formally named, had been employed as a construction worker in Philadelphia for two months before his arrest in February on suspicion of being part of Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang.
77%: The price isn’t right: 77% of Americans expect President Donald Trump’s tariff plan to raise consumer prices, with 47% believing that consumer prices will “increase a lot,” according to an AP-NORC poll. Despite those numbers, 4 in 10 Americans still approve of Trump’s handling of the economy and trade negotiations.
0: In the wake of Trump’s tariffs, Germany announced on Thursday it was downgrading its predicted economic growth rate — the economy depends heavily on manufacturing exports — from 0.3% to 0.0%. If the prediction holds, 2025 will be the third straight year of stagnation for Europe’s largest economy.
217 million: Former South Korean President Moon Jae-in was indicted on Thursday on bribery charges, alleging that he received 217 million won ($151,705) from the founder of a low-cost airline. No, it wasn’t Turkish Airlines but Eastar Jet.
“When things are going fine, nobody really tests the skills and talents of their financial advisor, but this is a moment where really good advice can be extraordinarily powerful,” says Margaret Franklin, CFA Institute's CEO and President.
In conversation with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis, Franklin describes the current financial climate as “maximum uncertainty,” rating it a 10 out of 10 on the risk scale. Recent unpredictable US trade policies have sent market volatility soaring, leaving many people and investors uncertain about their financial and portfolio management decisions. The usual conditions of predictability and reliability have been upended, making it more important than ever to seek guidance from a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), Franklin recommends. She warns that the most “common destructive behavior” for a portfolio is abandoning a sensible program just when you need to stay the course.
Franklin also highlights growing concerns about “finfluencers” on platforms like TikTok and Instagram, who often lack proper qualifications and required disclosures. To address this, the CFA Institute is working to provide the public with reliable financial education and resources, helping people better understand the complexities and risks of today’s unpredictable environment.
This conversation is presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft from the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical discussions on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Workers' Party (WP) supporters wave party flags as they cheer their candidates at the nomination center ahead of the general election in Singapore, on April 23, 2025.
Singapore kicked off a lightning-fast, nine-day campaign on Wednesday for its May 3 election. The vote promises to be the most contested since independence, as the ruling People’s Action Party sweats a strong challenge amid weak economic forecasts.
Elections in Singapore are usually dull affairs: The PAP has utterly dominated all contests since 1965, with members of the founding Lee family serving as PM for 45 years combined, and as recently as 2024. During one of its worst performances in 2020, the PAP won 89% of seats in parliament – even though it won just 61% of the vote. Such disproportionate electoral results, along with systematic repression of opposition figures, have led to accusations that Singapore is ade facto one-party state.
What’s different this time? First off, the Lion City is facing grim economic prospects. Growth projections have been revised to 0-2% for the year, down from 1-3%, and the heavily trade-dependent economy is reeling from global 10% tariffs imposed by the United States.
Secondly, the PAP’s long time in office contrasts sharply with a slate of newer candidates from the opposition Worker’s Party. PM Lawrence Wong has introduced 32 new candidates in an effort to shed the old guard image, casting off many long-serving stalwarts. A YouGov survey showed that only about 40% of voters would support the PAP if the election were held today, while a 43% plurality either don’t know or wouldn’t say who they will support.
The WP is still fighting uphill. Its leaders hope to take a third of seats in parliament, far from a majority – but perhaps enough to change the political dynamic permanently.