Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
Politics
Bibi and Biden speak after Israeli defense chief postpones US visit
FILE PHOTO: Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant during a press conference in the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv , Israel , 28 October 2023.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallantcanceled a much-anticipated trip to Washington on Wednesday, reportedly at the behest of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who then held a call with US President Joe Biden himself instead. The visit had been expected to be an important opportunity to discuss Israel’s planned retaliation against Iran for its Oct. 1 rocket barrage, as well as the expanding campaign in Lebanon.
Netanyahu reportedly didn’t want Gallant to preempt his message before the Israeli cabinet votes on a response plan. Biden emphasized on his phone call with Netanyahu — the first time they had spoken in almost two months — that any response must be proportional. Speaking to reporters in Israel, Gallant said its strike on Iran “will be powerful, precise, and above all – surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened.”
Meanwhile, in the ruins of Gaza, Hamas’ new leader Yahya Sinwar reportedly issued a directive to revive the practice of suicide bombings shortly after taking over total control this summer. One attempt on Tel Aviv was botched in August when the explosives went off early, killing only the attempted bomber.
Suicide tactics were commonplace for Hamas 20 years ago during the Second Intifade, but the group renounced them to gain more political legitimacy. But with Hamas’ conventional military in shambles, these desperate acts of violence may be the last tool Sinwar has at hand.
Two Women wait for Vice President Kamala Harris to arrive at Ripon College, Thursday, October 3, 2024, in Ripon, Wis.
The 2024 election has been impacted by issues related to gender like never before. Even before Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee and had the potential to be the first female US president, the campaigns were coalescing around a Republican Party of shirt-ripping masculinity and a Democratic Party focused on reproductive rights and inclusivity.
Recent polling data paints a clear picture of a growing gender divide. The latest New York Times/Siena poll shows Harris with a 14-point lead among women, while Donald Trump holds a commanding 13-point lead with men.
“A substantial gender gap is nothing new – in every election since at least 1980, men have leaned more Republican than have women,” says Eurasia Group’s US analyst Noah Daponte-Smith, but “the gender divide has grown in recent years.”
The gap becomes a chasm among young voters. The New York Times/Siena poll shows young men favoring Trump by 13 points and young women favoring Harris by 38 points – a 51-point gap. Before Harris entered the race, among voters aged 18 to 29,Harvard Kennedy School’s polling found that Joe Biden led women by 33 points in contrast to among young men, where his lead dropped to a mere six points.
Harris’ embrace of “brat summer” helped bring disaffected young voters back into the campaign, leading some analysts to compare her youth support to Barack Obama’s first election. But in 2008, 62% of young men voted for Obama, a 28-point margin over McCain, with only a 12-point gender gap. Ever since, the share of men under 30 who identify with or lean toward the Democrats has been plummeting, from 51% in 2016 to 39% in 2023. So most of the young people Harris has brought back into her coalition have been young women.
While Harris hops on the Charlie XCX train, MAGA embraces the macho. Both candidates have crafted media strategies geared towards men or women.
Trump’s campaign has capitalized on the photo of Trump with his fist in the air after nearly being assassinated at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, to put out merchandise saying, “FIGHT FOR AMERICA” and “IF YOU COME AT THE KING YOU BEST NOT MISS,” and has cultivated a network of male streamers and celebrities. At the Republican National Convention, unapologetic masculinity was the main course, from Hulk Hogan ripping his shirt off to reveal a MAGA shirt, to Dana White, the CEO of the Ultimate Fighting Championship, giving a keynote address.
But besides Trump associating himself with highly masculine celebrities, Daponte-Smith says that “in his campaign rhetoric, Trump often valorizes employment sectors perceived as more masculine. Think of coal miners, auto workers, oil, and gas workers, etc. Along with the macho persona he projects, that is a message relatively more effective among men than among women.”
Meanwhile, Harris is embracing memes and social media trends that are largely popular among women and LGBTQ voters. Her campaign has embraced JD Vance’s comment that she and other female leaders are “childless cat ladies.” She was a recent guest on the “Call Her Daddy” podcast, a show with millions of listeners, many of which are young women, and has scored an endorsement from Taylor Swift.
The Dobbs effect. Trump’s appointment of a conservative majority is seen as responsible for the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, and led to a patchwork of abortion laws across the country. Since 2022, female voters have been galvanized in states where abortion laws are on the ballot, a trend that has led Harris to put reproductive rights at the center of her campaign.
Trump is desperate to win women back to his side, saying at a recent rally that he will be a “protector” of women so that they no longer “have to think about abortion.” Potentially more effectively, his closest surrogates, Vance and his wife, Melania Trump, have both made recent statements on the need to protect abortion services. In the vice presidential debate, Vance condemned the limited access to reproductive care as a result of the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Meanwhile, in her newly released memoir, Melania declares herself to be unequivocally pro-choice.
“Women are registered to vote at higher rates than men and have slightly higher turnout rates,” says Daponte-Smith. In every election since 1980, women have voted at higher rates, “that’s generally a good sign for Democrats – especially if they can use the issue of abortion to drive higher turnout among relatively low-turnout groups, like younger women.”
FILE PHOTO: The X account of Elon Musk in seen blocked on a mobile screen in this illustration after Brazil's telecommunications regulator suspended access to Elon Musk's X social network in the country to comply with an order from a judge who has been locked in a months-long feud with the billionaire investor, Sao Paulo, Brazil taken August 31, 2024.
5: X was officially reinstated in Brazil, ending a five week ban of the social media platform, which had failed to comply with court orders to remove accounts that were spreading disinformation. X owner Elon Musk had initially defied the orders and refused to pay related fines, styling himself as a defender of free speech. In the end, Musk and X caved as the ban had caused Brazil’s 40 million X users to start using other sites instead.
7: Mainland China’s benchmark stock index plummeted 7% on Tuesday, in the largest single day drop since February 2020, a time when COVID was first spreading rapidly in the country. Analysts suggested the drop, which snapped a 10-day streak of gains, reflected fading optimism that the Chinese government’s current stimulus policies will be enough to perk up a sluggish economy.
31: He is not dead. Repeat. Not dead. That’s the official word from the Cameroonian government about 91-year old president, Paul Biya, who has not been seen in public in 32 days. Biya, who has held power since 1982, was last spotted leaving a China-Africa summit in Beijing on Sept. 8. Since then, he has missed a number of high profile events, including the entire UN General Assembly in New York.
12.35: Hungary is known for the delicacy of its goulash, the harmonies of Franz Liszt, and the architectural beauties of Budapest. But olive oil? Too chilly right? Not any more. Hungarian farmers are increasingly planting olive trees as climate change shifts the temperate zones of Europe northward and inflicts more frequent droughts on traditional Mediterranean olive habitats like Spain. A mere tenth of a liter of the stuff from Hungary now fetches $12.35 in neighboring Slovenia.Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), President of the European Commission, stands in the plenary chamber of the European Parliament and speaks while Vikor Orban (Fidesz), Prime Minister of Hungary, can be seen in the background.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyenhad strong words on Wednesday for Hungary’s strongman, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, about his close relationship with Russia. After listing a fiery litany of grievances over Hungary’s democratic backsliding and undermining of EU support for Ukraine, she addressed Orbán directly. “There are still some who blame this war not on Putin’s lust for power but on Ukraine’s thirst for freedom, so I want to ask them: Would they ever blame the Hungarians for the Soviet invasion in 1956?”
The powerful rhetoric aimed at painful memories of Soviet tanks crushing freedom fighters in Budapest’s burning streets. Orbán, who had just delivered a relatively meek address about his plans for Hungary’s six-month EU presidency, denied von der Leyen’s accusation and denounced her for using the EU executive as a “political weapon.” Some left-wing MEPs sang the anti-fascist anthem “Bella Ciao,” prompting the parliament’s president, Roberta Metsola, to remind them “this is not Eurovision.”
Why did the gloves come off? Von der Leyen and her team of 26 commissioners are going before Parliament for confirmation hearings between Nov. 4 and 12. Parliament has taken von der Leyen to task in recent weeks for playing softball with Hungary and is preparing to sue the commission over its decision to unlock billions in frozen funds for Hungary last year. Taking Orbán to task might just be what she needs to smooth things over before the hearings.
We’re watching how her message plays, and whether Orbán might change his tune toward Russia — but we’re not holding our breath.
North Koreans take part in a parade to commemorate the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang October 10, 2010.
In yesterday’s edition, we noted awarning from South Korea’s defense minister that North Korea was “highly likely” to deploy troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. It is not yet clear how many troops would be committed or what their mission would be, but the move, if it happens, would make some sense. Vladimir Putin remains reluctant to order mass conscription since that might give a lot more Russians a reason to openly oppose his war. And anew report citing sources inside the Moscow mayor’s office says that “volunteer fighters aged 45 and over now make up half of new [Russian army] recruits in Moscow.” The North Koreans might be getting access to some valuable Russian advanced technology in return for their soldiers.
But we have more questions. North Korean troops have long demonstrated excellent goose-stepping skills at large-scale parades, but none have ever experienced combat. How will they respond to the meat grinder battlefields of eastern Ukraine? Given the Russian military’s manylogistical failures over the past 32 months, how will it handle the coordination of North Korean troops? What happens when North Korean soldiers, facing horrible battlefield conditions, decide they’d rather defect and live in Kyiv?
These are questions Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will likely continue pondering before they approve anything beyond a symbolic deployment.Satellite image of Hurricane Milton as of 8 p.m., on Oct. 8, 2024.
9: Millions have boarded up, sandbagged, and evacuated their homes in Florida this week as Hurricane Milton barrels through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Sunshine State. Deemed a Category 5 storm on Tuesday, with winds reaching speeds of up to 180 mph, Milton is expected to weaken slightly but still bring an "extremely life-threatening situation" when it makes landfall Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the Federal Emergency Management Agency – still busy with the impact of last month’s Hurricane Helene – reported this week that only 9% of its personnel, or 1,217 staffers, were available to help with new disaster relief efforts.
3.3: About 3.3% of US high school students identify as transgender, according to a new survey. The first-of-its-kind study also revealed 2.2% of students are questioning their gender identity. About 10% of transgender students reported suicide attempts, 10 times that of cisgender boys. Transgender issues are at the center of America’s culture wars – while most Americans favor discrimination protections for transgender people, support for restrictions on transgender care and education is significantly higher among Republicans than among Democrats.
13: TikTok is in legal hot water again as 13 US states and the District of Columbia have filed a lawsuit against the short-form video platform alleging that it breaks US consumer protection laws and has exacerbated a mental health crisis among teenagers. The suit comes as TikTok faces the prospect of being banned outright in the US next January unless it cuts ties with its China-based parent company ByteDance.
42: An alliance committed to restoring Kashmir’s autonomy within India won the region’s elections, which culminated on Oct. 8, taking 48 of the local legislature’s 90 seats. The vote was the first since Kashmir was stripped of its special status in 2019 by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose Hindu nationalist BJP party won just 29 seats in the Kashmir election. However, the BJP also looked set to win a surprise victory in the state of Haryana – a result that the opposition Congress party is contesting.
7,000: The Dominican Republic has deported at least 4,900 Haitians since last Thursday alone. The move is part of a new policy in which the Dominican government says it will deport up to 10,000 undocumented migrants weekly amid rising concerns about crime and lawlessness. The government of Haiti, which is currently mired in a severe political, economic, and humanitarian crisis, has blasted the deportations as “an affront to human dignity.”
Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris reacts, as she appears on ABC's "The View" in New York, U.S., October 8, 2024.
Harris’ interview, which aired Monday night, offered a window into her thinking on foreign policy. On the war in Ukraine, Harris pledged she would not pressure Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to offer Russia concessions in exchange for peace and that she would not negotiate with Russia’s Vladimir Putin without Zelensky present. She charged that, if Trump were elected, he would essentially hand Ukraine to Putin. Harris also identified Iran as America’s main international adversary. On border security, she accused Trump of playing politics and promised that “solutions are at hand.” But, she added, “we need Congress to be able to act to actually fix the problem.”
In the “60 Minutes” interview, Harris was not questioned about US policy toward Beijing, and she has notably shared very few thoughts on US-China relations throughout her three-month campaign.
During her debate with Trump last month, she said “a policy about China should be in making sure the United States of America wins the competition for the 21st century,” and she has noted the Biden administration’s efforts to boost American technological advancement. But this has not translated into foreign policy proposals.
Trump, meanwhile, has had plenty to say about the economic and security rivalry, and Chinese officials are surely watching closely.
The Harris media blitz continues. On Tuesday, she appeared on “The View” on ABC, “The Howard Stern Show,” and “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” on CBS. On Thursday, she’ll take on a Town Hall in Nevada moderated by Univision, the country’s largest Spanish-language news network.