Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
Politics
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to close out our week in Davos, Switzerland.
Want to talk about now President Trump's address; virtual, direct to everybody, collected yesterday, assembled yesterday, to hear his speech, and then to ask a few pre-planned questions. The speech itself, at the beginning, not all that surprising, "America's back open for business. Everything was horrible before. Everything's going to be great, now." Not a surprise, kind of exaggerated. You'd never think that the US was by far the strongest-performing economy in the advanced industrial world, coming out of the pandemic. But people roll their eyes a bit, they get on getting on. There was still a fair amount of news that was actually made, and some interesting thoughts about where the initial Trump administration is going to go.
First point, on OPEC, talks a lot about Saudi Arabia directly, Mohammed bin Salman. They're very close, they've worked together closely. Not only when he was president the first time, it was his first trip as president back in 2017, but since then. A lot of business with the family as well. And has been promised $600 billion to invest in the United States directly. That beats the $500 billion announcement that the AI giants have just made in what they're going to do, this Stargate project. He likes that. He said, "Why don't you up it to a trillion?" That's a round number. Good thing we're base-10 in this country. Anyway, the fact that Trump is interested in engaging very closely with the Saudis, not a surprise at all, there is going to be a very big push to try to ensure that Saudi Arabia moves on normalization of relations with Israel. Given the fact that there's no two-state solution on the table for the Palestinians, that's challenging, but I wouldn't count it out, frankly.
Secondly, a lot of talk about oil and the fact that Trump really doesn't like where oil prices are right now. Now, the Americans are going to try to pump more, but he knows that there's only so much that can be done in the near term, maybe another 500,000 barrels a day. OPEC, on the other hand, has over four million barrels that are off the market. Why? Because they're willing to ensure that prices are comparatively high. And if that means they lose a little bit of market share, they're happy to do that. Well, Trump doesn't like that one bit, and especially because he wants to hit Iran hard, and take more of their oil off the market. He doesn't want prices to go up, so he wants the Saudis to lean in. How are they going to react? We'll see. Something at least nominal in the near-term, that brings prices maybe down towards, let's say, $70, as opposed to roughly $80, where they've been, that would be interesting to see. I wouldn't put it past the Saudis at all to lean in on that.
Secondly, China. We are going to now see tariffs early on China, 10% across the board, February 1. Markets seem to like the fact that, on the first day, Trump didn't do anything, but a few days later, is that really much better? What was interesting about the conversation, Trump is trying to make it very clear, he doesn't have an ideological beef with China. He continues to speak broadly, more warmly about Xi Jinping, and specifically about China, than generally President Biden has. That's not all that different from the first term, but it's different from expectations over the past few months. And I do expect we're going to see a summit meeting relatively soon, even though there's been no announcements around it. Having said all of that, the fact that the US has a really tough take on China, not only bilaterally but also versus all these other countries, Trump wants to punish the Europeans to ensure that they coordinate with the US on China, wants to ensure the Mexicans, the Indians, the Vietnamese, and others don't allow Chinese goods into the US through their countries.
It's very hard for the US and China to maintain a stable relationship when Trump's going to respond to China, "Well, that's our business. Those are relations with other countries. You have nothing to say about it." They're really stuck on this, and I expect that, despite maybe a bit of a honeymoon, which I wasn't thinking we'd have a few weeks ago, the US-China relations are still going to get a lot more challenging over the coming months.
And then we have Russia. And I thought it was very interesting that when Trump was asked, "So, next year at Davos, if you were here, is the war going to be over between Russia and Ukraine?" Because, of course, he's been saying, "I can end the war in a day." Then he's saying, "100 days." Now, he's saying, "Actually, the Ukrainians are ready for a deal." And by the way, that's true. But you're going to have to ask the Russians. Well, that's very different from, "I can get the deal done very easily."
He also continues to lean into the fact that the Chinese can be useful here, and that's true. That's something that the Biden administration and Trump administration actually agree pretty strongly on, that China has a lot more direct leverage over Russia than the United States does. And there's only so much the US can do with additional sanctions to convince the Russians to stop. Now, Trump can say that Russia needs to end the war, and that this is hurting them, but Putin doesn't actually feel that way. Certainly isn't prepared to accept less than the territory that he's presently occupying. So that, to me, is very interesting.
I would say the place that Trump has moved the most in the last three months, moved specifically towards the position that the Europeans have, and they're a lot less panicked about it now than they were even a week ago, is on the Russia-Ukraine issue. No one here in Europe, not one European leader I spoke with, now believes that Trump is going to basically throw Zelenskyy under the bus. And that's absolutely not where they were even, let's say, in December. So, that's a big deal.
That doesn't mean that the Europeans are feeling comfortable about Trump because, of course, Trump does not like Europe. Does not like a consolidated Europe, doesn't think a strong Europe is good for the United States. He wants to deal with individual European countries, and he wants to deal, of course, preferably with more Europe-first types in those individual countries. So, it's not the British Prime Minister, it's not the German Chancellor. It's organizations like the Reform Party and AFD. And, of course, Giorgia Meloni from Italy. He also bitterly complains about all the regulations, all the taxes, how hard it is to do business in Europe, how hard it is to do business with Europe. And that is a big challenge for Europe, that understands they need to be more competitive, but isn't prepared to spend the money, isn't capable of coordinating to get the kind of industrial policy done that the Americans are now doing.
So, on defense, on Ukraine, existential threat from Russia, Europe's doing a lot more coordination with the United States. On the economy, which concerns the Europeans equally much, and technology, where the Americans are a clear leader and leaning in very heavily, and the regulations are only going to get more comfortable and aligned with the technology companies, those that remain, the regulations, that is, not the tech companies, the Europeans are in very serious trouble.
So, that's it from me. I hope you all guys are well, and I'll talk to you all from New York next week.
John F Kennedy and his wife Jackie Kennedy in the Lincoln Continental in Dallas on November 22, 1963, just moments before he was assassinated.
3: Donald Trump on Thursday ordered the government to declassify documents pertaining to three of the biggest, and most controversial, assassinations in American history: President John F. Kennedy in 1963, his brother Robert F. Kennedy in 1968, and civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr., also in 1968. Will this finally put to rest the question of whether there was a second shooter on the grassy knoll? Back and to the left … back and to the left.
600 billion: Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest some $600 billion in the United States, part of a charm offensive with the kingdom’s most important Western ally. Trump suggested Thursday in his address to the World Economic Forum in Davos that the Saudis should top that up closer to $1 trillion. He suggested earlier this week that such investments could mean he’d consider making the kingdom his first foreign trip as America’s 47th president. Saudi Arabia has invested heavily in companies linked to Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner.
15,000: For the first time in nearly a decade, Nepal has hiked the permit fee for climbing Mount Everest. If you want to summit the highest peak on Earth, you’ll need to pony up $15,000, an increase of 36%. Each year, several hundred people attempt the ascent, which was first completed in 1953 by Edmund Hillary and Sherpa Tenzing Norgay.
120,000: If you love lizards, you’re ’guana cry about this one. Taiwan has announced plans to cull up to 120,000 green iguanas, an invasive species that is native to Central America and the Caribbean. Stretching to 2 feet in length, the sharp-toothed green iguanas pose no threat to humans, but they eat and destroy crops, wreaking havoc on the agriculture sector.
23: President Donald Trumpsigned pardons on Thursday for 23 anti-abortion activists who were convicted of illegally blocking access to abortion clinics. Among them was 31-year-old Lauren Hardy, who was serving a five-year term for leading a blockade on a clinic that resulted in the protesters forcing their way into the facility and injuring a nurse. The release came just in time for the annual March for Life, set for today in Washington, DC.
13: The musical film “Emila Pérez,” a Spanish-language French production about a drug kingpin who undergoes a gender transition, has garnered 13 Oscar nominations, the most of any film this year. Its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, became the first openly transgender actress to be nominated for an Oscar. Coming just three days after the new Trump administration moved to roll back recognition and protections for transgender people, the nominations carry a distinct political significance. The Academy Awards will take place on March 2.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres speaks during the 55th annual World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, Switzerland, January 22, 2025.
GZERO’s very own Tony Maciulis is in the Alps all week to report from the 55th World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
_______
I learned today there’s a guided meditation session each morning in the Congress Centre, the main hub of activity for WEF programming. I’d drop by, but I’m afraid it would make me nervous. I’m sticking to the coffee bar in the UAE Pavilion on the Promenade where I tried my first qahwa, an Arabic coffee, this week, flavored with rosewater and cardamom. The United Arab Emirates has a big presence here this year, with a delegation of at least 100 from the government and private sector, promoting its investments in AI innovation. And the UN Secretary-General António Guterres also had a big presence today--telling Davos participants that we're living in a "rudderless world," despite the Forum's theme of "collaboration."
Three highlights from Wednesday:
- Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchezsaid “sí” to continued support for multilateral public health efforts, an obvious rebuttal to President Donald Trump’s order that the US withdraw from the World Health Organization. But he devoted much of his appearance to a critique of social media, which he says has oversimplified and polarized public debate.
- Apparently, Iran isn’t a security threat. Well, at least that’s what its Vice President for Strategic Affairs Javad Zariftold the Davos crowd, saying that if Iran wanted a nuclear weapon the country would have one by now. He also said of Gaza, “Hamas is still there,” and that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu did not achieve his goal.
- The world may be in the middle of a “masculine wave,” as fashion icon Diane von Furstenbergtold me in Davos this week, and, yes, President Trump did issue anexecutive order essentially ending Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion initiatives in federal government, but gender parity was on the agenda in Davos. A panel including government ministers from Congo and Mexico and the head of Europol, notably a woman, tackled the reasons why women make up just 15% of heads of state and 33% of parliamentarians globally. (Note: In 2024, only 28% of WEF participants were women. Just sayin’.)
And three things to watch today:
- Trump, of course. He joins the Forum via video conference at 5 p.m. local time (11 a.m. ET) here in Davos for a session introduced by WEF founder Klaus Schwab and facilitated by the organization’s President and CEO Børge Brende. I’ll be in the Congress Centre for it and will report on reactions from Davos participants.
- We’ll also hear from Argentina’s President Javier Milei who is continuing his first international trip of 2025. His trip to Davos follows his appearance at President Trump’s inauguration in Washington, DC, where it was actually colder than it is here in the Alps right now.
- Also be on the lookout for appearances by members of the US delegation. Tomorrow WEF features a discussion with US Governors Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas and Andy Beshear of Kentucky.
FILE PHOTO: Britain's Prince Harry and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex attend the Royal Salute Polo Challenge to benefit Sentebale, a charity founded by him and Prince Seeiso of Lesotho to support children in Lesotho and Botswana, in Wellington, Florida, U.S., April 12, 2024.
The Duke of Sussex (or Montecito, these days) achieved the impossible: He got the British tabloids toapologize.
Prince Harry on Wednesday hailed his victory and reported eight-figure settlement of more than £10 million ($12.33 million) from Rupert Murdoch’s News Group Newspapers, or NGN, publisher “The Sun” newspaper in Britain, for unlawful surveillance – including phone hacking – between 1996 and 2011. The admission marks a 180-degree pivot by NGN, who apologized for the “serious intrusion” into both his private life and that of his mother, Princess Diana, who died following a public car chase with paparazzi in 1997. “The goal is accountability. It’s really that simple,” Harry, who is fifth in line to the British throne,said last month.
The settlement pales in comparison to the $787 million awarded to Dominion Voting Systems from Murdoch’s Fox Corporation, who settled a defamation lawsuit in 2023 over alleged claims of election interference. Earlier this month, a New York appeals court ruled thatanother $2.7 billion defamation suit against Fox can continue, this time from voting manufacturer Smartmatic. While the successes of these cases are significant, massive media conglomerates like the Murdoch empire won’t be crumbling under these payouts anytime soon.
Trust in media is at ahistoric low, and these cases reflect a growing appetite for journalistic integrity and responsible reporting. Don’t expect payouts and apologies to change the landscape anytime soon, though. As long as the most invasive and sensational stories keep feeding clicks and generating the most ad revenue, expect the feedback loop to continue … adding to everyone’s trust issues.
Container ships in front of the port of Bremerhaven.
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump used his social media platform to threatenVladimir Putin with “high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States” unless he struck a bargain over Ukraine.
There’s just one problem: Russia has very little trade with the US. Americans imported just $2.8 billion in goods from Russia from Jan. to Nov. 2024, less than a tenth of the pre-war figure and less than 1% of all US imports over the same time period. The extensive sanctions already in place have hardly brought Moscow to its knees, and arguably benefited US rivals like China, Iran, and North Korea. It’s tough talk, but it’s not likely to push Putin to the table.
China is a different story. Trade with the US added up to an average of $54 billion per month in 2024, and the 60% tariffs Trump threatened to put on China on the campaign trail would cause severe damage to both economies. That may be why Trump is backing off the high sticker number and said Tuesday he is considering imposing at 10% tariffs on Chinese goods as soon as Feb. 1.
Now, 10% is a number that Beijing feels is much more manageable. China is experiencing price deflation — a really damaging phenomenon with one silver lining in that it could mean US consumers wind up paying about the same prices even if Trump hikes tariffs. The central government is also promising funds to stabilize the stock market in the face of potential tariffs and prevent investors from seeking safer shelter for their cash.
The fears are more real in Europe, where Trump threatened to impose tariffs without specifying a rate on Tuesday. Growth in the region’s most important economies is already stagnating, and even small barriers to trade with their most important partner will have serious consequences. Further economic troubles could empower far-right movements across the continent, which may suit Trump just fine. We have our eye on Germany, which will hold elections in precisely one month.
And don’t forget Canada and Mexico, which are staring down the barrel of 25% tariffs that Trump threatened on Tuesday as well. It’s creating a decidedly tense atmosphere in North America, with Canadian Prime Minister (for now) Justin Trudeau promising retaliation, which Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has hinted at as well.
The bottom line? You’re probably in for rising prices in the near future … unless everyone can come up with a reason for Trump to let them slide. We’re watching what Trump says when he speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday.
FILE PHOTO: A view of a logo during the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland, January 19, 2024.
GZERO’s very own Tony Maciulis is in the Alps all week to report from the 55th World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
_______
Grüetzi! That means “hello” in Swiss German, and it’s the only word I know in that language. But there are people from 130 countries gathered in this little Alpine village right now, so a smile and a nod will generally get you through anything but the security line.
As we head into the third day of the World Economic Forum, conventional wisdom is that newly inaugurated President Donald Trump is dominating all the conversations here. That isn’t wrong. But it’s kind of a “Yes, and ...” as they teach you in improv.
A few notes from yesterday:
- China’s Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang made headlines with his address at the forum, though it read like a speech meant to counter an executive order on tariff hikes that hasn’t yet been issued. Instead, it felt like a preemptive strike as he warned, “Protectionism leads to nowhere, and there are no winners in a trade war.” He made a case for multilateralism on the most multilateral of stages, perhaps setting the stage for moves China will make to fill a leadership void if the US backs out of major global efforts like the World Health Organization.
- If China’s on offense, Europe is building defense. In two big speeches Tuesday, both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen laid out arguments for a stronger, more self-reliant Europe. Zelensky called for increased defense spending that could give the Continent a shot at going it alone if US support diminishes. “Europe has too often outsourced its security, but those days are gone,” Von der Leyen declared.
- And I overheard more than a few grumblings on the Promenade about the déjà vu of another US withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. Trump puts America in the company of only three other countries — Yemen, Libya, and Iran. But who’s counting?
What to watch for today:
- Speaking of Iran, that nation’s Vice President for Strategic Affairs Javad Zarif is set to speak on Wednesday, as is Syria’s new Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani. These are two prominent moments in an agenda that has several programs focused on the Middle East.
- UN Secretary-General António Guterres will be here just days afterhe warned the world has opened “a Pandora’s box of ills” with regard to growing inequalities and protracted conflicts. (Close the box, please.)
- And our Global Stage series is set to premiere a new conversation from Davos! “The AI Economy: An Engine for Local Growth,” streams at 11 a.m. ET today. The program features Ian Bremmer, Microsoft’s Vice Chair and President Brad Smith, WTO Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, European Investment Bank President Nadia Calviño, and G42’s CEO Peng Xiao. Watchhere.
An illustration shows the US flag with the TikTok logo and a dollar in Shanghai, China, on January 21, 2025.
TikTokkers may credit President Donald Trump with the app’s restoration on Sunday, which came 12 hours after a government ban shut it down, but their joy may be short-lived. On Monday, Trump signedan executive order suspending the ban for 75 days, during which his administration will “determine the appropriate course forward in an orderly way that protects national security while avoiding an abrupt shutdown of a communications platform used by millions of Americans.”
Before taking office, Trump floated the idea of obliging TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, to sell half the company to an American purchaser and run it as a joint venture. Beijing has beencool to the concept, with China’s Foreign Ministry responding that the “operation and acquisition of companies” should be “decided by companies” and in line with Chinese law.
How important is TikTok to China? Both Chinese Vice President Han Zheng and TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chewattended Trump’s inauguration, and in a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping the previous Friday, Trump said the two leaders spoke about the app. On Monday, however, Trump told reporters he could levy tariffs of 100% on Chinese goods if Beijing refuses to strike a deal – indicating that TikTok may be just another bargaining chip in Trump’s plans for containing China.