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Politics
A protester wears a South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol mask while holding a representation of prison bars, during a rally calling for the impeachment of the South Korean President, who declared martial law, which was reversed hours later, in front of the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, December 11, 2024.
In South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol’sparty hasturned on him, throwing their support behind attempts to impeach him after last week’s brief declaration of martial law. The flip came moments before Yoon delivered a fiery speech Thursday in which he justified his actions and vowed not to step down.
The lead prosecutor in South Korea’s criminal investigation into Yoon said Wednesday he would arrest the presidentif warranted. Also on Wednesday, police attempted to raid the Yongsan Presidential Office to secure evidence of Yoon’s actions and mindset before and during the martial law order but retreated after an hourslong standoff with presidential security.
Yoon survived an impeachment vote last weekend, but he faces another one on Saturday. The opposition Democratic Party, which controls the National Assembly but falls eight votes short of the bar for impeachment, is far more likely to succeed this time now that Yoon’s People Power Party is backing impeachment.
As GZERO previously reported, PPP’s leader had been pressuring Yoon to step down and avoid impeachment altogether, though perhaps not immediately. They wanted to get Yoon to publicly agree now to resign in, say, February, which would’ve pushed elections even further away, creating space for maneuvering. Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who is the likely presidential candidate, has his own legal problems that could bar him from standing for office — if courts have enough time to process his case, that is. But with Yoon increasingly defiant, his party has decided to take matters into their own hands.
Can they really arrest the president? Ordinarily no. South Korea’s president enjoys immunity from prosecution — except in the case of insurrection charges. The case looks quite serious, and the former defense minister who allegedly encouraged the coup attempt tried to commit suicide following his arrest. He is now hospitalized, and the heads of the National Police Agency and Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency are also under arrest.
Looking ahead, Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan says Yoon’s impeachment is all but assured and that it “will be a positive development for the country because it will strip all presidential duties from Yoon and begin the process of turning the page on his presidency, which is likely to go down in history as the worst of its kind.”
Assad’s fall, Romania’s canceled election, Trump’s Taiwan approach, and more: Your questions, answered
How did Bashar Assad get driven out of Syria after more than 20 years in power? What are your thoughts on his replacements?
I was surprised that Assad fell. He’s been such an important client for both Iran and Russia for decades and received their immediate support when the rebels began their offensive. But this was a particularly opportune time for the rebels to strike. Assad’s powerful friends were both distracted in other arenas: Iran with Israel (in both Gaza and, more importantly for Iran, Lebanon) and Russia with Ukraine. Interestingly, there is one key throughline connecting the fall of Mosul (Iraq), Kabul (Afghanistan), and Damascus (Syria) — all three were held by conscript armies that were fed, equipped, and trained by corrupt regimes … and when attacked by fierce radical groups fled as quickly as they could.
On its face, the fall of one of the world’s most oppressive dictators should be good news. Assad’s war against his own people led to the deaths of over 500,000 Syrians and millions of refugees fleeing into Turkey and from there to Europe. But I’m not yet confident that what’s replacing his regime will be much better. The Turkish-backed militants in charge are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a former al-Qaida affiliate in Syria that formally cut ties with the terrorists but is still (as of now) labeled a terrorist organization by the United States and NATO. Turkey wasn’t all in on removing Assad (at first). If the regime change goes well (a big if), the real winner here will be Turkey, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sending millions of Syrian refugees back home, becoming the main influence on strategically important Syria, and leading the fight against the Islamic State. This would land Erdoğan in Donald Trump’s good graces if it leads to a withdrawal of American troops.
HTS is clearly serious about establishing itself as the new, legitimate government — and a policy (for now) of relative moderation and tolerance toward other groups in the country is making that easier. But there are still so many unknowns and reasons that this can go terribly wrong.
Can Romania just cancel an election?
The constitutional court decided it’s “better to ask for forgiveness than permission.” After a massive far-right influence campaign by external (well … Russian) forces on TikTok and other social platforms was uncovered, Romania became the first democracy to ever cancel an election because of a disinformation campaign. This move will land the country in hot water regardless of the results of the rescheduled election. The court is viewed as highly politicized, so the decision will ultimately undermine it and whoever the future president may be – unless the far-right fringe candidate is allowed to run, and win, again.
How could President Trump’s plan to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine on “day one” impact China’s approach to Taiwan?
Whether China will push to undermine the cross-strait status quo during Trump’s second term is still up for debate. But Trump’s transactional approach to the war in Ukraine won’t affect China’s approach to Taiwan, at least in the near term. Beijing is still several years away from being able to credibly launch an invasion and take over the self-governing democracy. For now, China’s leaders are much more focused on regaining their own economic footing. That said, President-elect Trump’s interest in defending an island thousands of miles from the United States (and incredibly close to mainland China) is questionable at best. Many of his advisors care a great deal about Taiwanese sovereignty as a matter of US national security and longstanding American values, but Trump himself is much more interested in the country’s bilateral trade balance with the US.
What does Russia after Putin realistically look like?
If Vladimir Putin dies tomorrow, don’t expect a seismic shift at the Kremlin. Far more likely, his replacement would be another strongly anti-Western, nationalist leader who would fill the vacuum left by Putin’s departure. Such a successor would likely be more risk-averse, having to derive legitimacy and maintain power through the support of the country’s military, intelligence, and security leaders. It’s hard to imagine a dramatic shift in Russia’s geopolitical orientation when most of the country feels like the United States and “the West” have been out to squash their country’s power for decades.
Could a multi-party proportional representation system fix American politics?
America’s two-party system provides unique challenges for government representation by fostering an “us vs. them” tribalist sentiment, dividing the country into only two camps. It would be harder to immediately brand the opposing party as “the enemy of the state” if Americans had more choices. So, a shift to a multi-party system would allow a broader spectrum of ideologies into DC, and across the country, that would more closely reflect the diversity of the country’s population as a whole, which I think would be a constructive development. That said, it's hard to see how we could ever get from here to there given the stronghold on American politics (and the insane amount of funding) that the current duopoly has.
Why do you always defend the United Nations?
Some may find it controversial, but I’m proud of the United Nations. A truly global institution created by the United States out of the rubble of World War II, the UN charter reflects the very best of American values. As an institution, the UN no doubt has problems. The Security Council (and its veto powers) reflects a geopolitical order that no longer exists, lacks representation, and is accordingly broken. In the General Assembly, each country (no matter how small) has one vote but without enforcement power is generally weak and ineffective. Countries vote and veto in ways many of us wish they didn’t (but you should blame those countries, not the UN, for that).
What gets lost in the critiques of the bureaucracy of the United Nations is the amount of good that the organization does on a global scale, and with limited expenses (which, by the way, is where most of American funding for the United Nations is spent). The World Health Organization, World Food Organization, UNICEF, and other UN arms are systematically looking out for the world’s poorest and most vulnerable in ways most singular countries couldn’t be bothered to do alone.
Today, the world is heading to a post-carbon energy future, and that’s in no small part due to the architecture set up by the United Nations. Plus, new initiatives like the creation of a global framework for artificial intelligence (which I’ve been happy to be a part of) signal more positive developments are still to come on the only stage where every country in the world can have a voice.
What is on your radar over the next 24 months and not being discussed enough?
While there’s constant talk about artificial intelligence impacting our daily lives, the deployment of large-scale AI applications to an individual’s every dataset is not being discussed nearly enough. Personalized decisions or predictions based on human behavior patterns ascribed in large datasets are coming our way shortly. Before you know it, we will all have tools that will change humanity as we know it — in productive ways and post-human ways.
Where do you get your news, and what news sources do you trust?
As you might expect, the folks at Eurasia Group and GZERO Media act as my North Star when news breaks. With about 250 brilliant employees scattered across the globe working tirelessly to understand the inner workings of their areas of expertise, they bring priceless insight into what’s going on in the world on any given day. More broadly, it’s helpful for people to look outside their bubbles and read news coverage from outside their country of origin. For me, the Canadians (CBC), Germans (DW), Japanese (NHK), Arabs (Al Jazeera, etc.), and others cover the world in a much more effective way than the coverage we get from one hour of insular news coverage on cable television (or even from sitting down with the New York Times or Wall Street Journal).
What are your thoughts on pineapple on pizza?
Well, that depends. I’ll allow pineapple if there’s also ham and something spicy on top like jalapenos or chili flakes. Even then, I can probably think of 20 other things that I’d rather have as a pizza topping. Still, pineapple is preferable to cuttlefish – a Japanese fan favorite.
Are you hiring?
Eurasia Group is always looking for new talent – not just in our New York office but around the world. I am not personally involved in hiring, though, which is probably for the best. Thankfully we have a CEO and management team who make running the firm look easy. We’d be nowhere near as successful without them. Left to my own devices, I might run us into the ground. Ask anyone at Eurasia Group, they’ll totally agree with me.Serbian president name-checks Assad, vows not to flee amid protests
FREIBERG, GERMANY - DECEMBER 10: Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (not pictured) speak to the media following talks over lithium mining on December 10, 2024 in Freiberg, Germany. Germany and Serbia will be cooperating in the sustainable mining of lithium, a critical substance for the production of batteries for electric cars. A company called Zinnwald Lithium GmbH intends to mine up to 15,000 tons of lithium annually in the region of Saxony near Freiberg, enough to build one million electric car batteries. Serbia also has extensive lithium deposits.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on Tuesday said he would not flee in the face of demonstrations against his administration. “If they think I’m Assad, and that I’ll run away somewhere, I will not,” he said. Comparing oneself to the brutal Syrian ex-strongman wasn’t great PR – though in fairness, no one is accusing Vučić of gassing children or torturing civilians like Assad – and many Serbians are protesting persistent corruption in Belgrade.
The most recent wave of unrest started with a roof collapse at a train station that killed 15 people in the city of Novi Sad on Nov. 1. Opposition leaders seized on the tragedy to accuse Vučić’s ruling coalition of nepotism and graft that led to corners being cut on public construction projects, leaving them dangerously shoddy. The station in Novi Sad had been renovated as part of a wide deal with Chinese state companies to upgrade Serbian infrastructure.
Every Friday, protesters now blockade streets in Belgrade, Novi Sad, and other major cities, some holding signs accusing Vučić of corruption and portraying him with blood on his hands, and thousands turned out to mark the one-month anniversary of the collapse. Police have fired tear gas at demonstrators, and pro-government groups have attempted to escalate peaceful protests.
Will Vučić stick to his word? Probably. He’s weathered prolonged popular unrest before, including just last year. More than five months of demonstrations following a series of mass shootings managed to push out a few underlings, but not Vučić. We’re watching for a sacrificial lamb.
Brazil’s Lula goes under the knife. Is he healthy enough to run again?
FILE PHOTO: Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends a signing ceremony for an addendum to the works on the Transnordestina railway, at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazil November 28, 2024.
On Tuesday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva underwent a successful craniotomy in Sao Paolo after complaining of a severe headache. The 79-year-old leader was diagnosed with an intracranial hemorrhage — basically, bleeding in the brain — linked to a fall he suffered in October. He is said to be recovering well and is expected to be able to return to work next week — but the health scare is opening questions about his political future.
Can Lula keep a healthy image? On the campaign trail, he often joked that he had the energy of a 30-year-old, but his vitality will now loom large in public discourse. Running Latin America’s largest country is a stressful, 24/7 job, and with elections looming in 2026, the politicos in Brasilia may start hearing echoes of Joe Biden.
Lula’s approval ratings are considerably higher than Biden’s were during the US campaign — Bloomberg has him at 47% approval — but in the anti-establishment environment that has dominated elections in 2024, the old warhorse might do better out to pasture. That said, most presidents don’t get elected without a healthy ego, and no one expects Lula to see himself out.
Who could step in? If Lula should experience further health problems that lead him to step down before the end of his term, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin would be his constitutional successor, but not a member of Lula's party or popular with his base. Longer term, we’re watching Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, a close ally of Lula’s who is rumored to be the president’s favorite for a running mate in 2026.China’s vows to pump up its economy — with one eye on Trump’s tariffs
A man rides a scooter past a giant screen showing news footage of Chinese President Xi Jinping attending a Chinese Communist Party politburo meeting, in Beijing, China December 9, 2024.
China’s Politburo — the top leadership cabinet — said Monday it would take “more proactive” fiscal measures and loosen up its monetary policy in 2025 as it aims to boost domestic consumption. The body met ahead of the annual Central Economic Work Conference, reportedly scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, at which the country’s economic policy priorities for the coming year are laid out — and one of those priorities is gearing up for Donald Trump.
The background: China has experienced over three years of economic turmoil that originated in the all-important property market, where most Chinese households keep their long-term savings. Defaults and halted constructions from major developers dovetailed with a local government debt crunch to place tremendous headwinds against economic growth, leading to stock market turbulence and high youth unemployment.
Beijing has attempted to goose growth with monetary easing (aka lowering central bank interest rates) since September and unveiled a $1.4 trillion debt package aimed at stabilizing growth in November. But kickstarting the economic engine is proving difficult.
Watch out for Trump: The incoming US president is promising to hike tariffs on Chinese goods, having mentioned figures as high as 60% on the campaign trail. While tariffs are a laborious way to cut off one’s nose to spite one’s face and are likely to hurt the US economy, Beijing’s exports are one of the few sectors doing well right now. Getting to a stable footing before the trade barriers go up must be a high priority.
China isn’t just playing defense though: US chip-making giant NVIDIA saw its stock slide 3% on Monday after news broke that Beijing was opening an antitrust investigation. NVIDIA has been a darling of investors during the AI boom, with shares nearly tripling in value this year — but this shot across the bows is a sign of what could come.People walk past stencils depicting the last two Romanian presidents in Bucharest, Romania, on December 6, 2024, and a question mark in the space for a future president.
Romania’s highest court on Friday scrapped the results of the first round presidential contest, citing evidence that an outside state actor – widely understood to be the Kremlin – had orchestrated a TikTok campaign in favor of the first place finisher, far-right ultranationalist Calin Georgescu.
Georgescu, an eccentric, little-known former soil scientist who pledged to end Romania’s support for Ukraine and questioned the value of Romania’s membership in NATO and the EU, surged in popularity while campaigning almost entirely on social media. He took 23% of the vote in the first round on Nov. 24, besting pro-European centrist Elena Lasconi by four points. The runoff was supposed to take place this Sunday.
The move to cancel the vote came after a few days of uncertainty. The court first ruled the results were legitimate, only to reverse course after declassified Romanian intelligence documents suggested Georgescu was unfairly helped by hundreds of thousands TikTok posts, coordinated from abroad.
The documents also said attackers based in dozens of countries had launched tens of thousands of attempts to hack election infrastructure but did not say whether any had been successful.
TikTok has denied it gave any preferential treatment to Georgescu, and Russia has rejected allegations it had anything to do with the issue. The EU, meanwhile, has ordered the company to freeze and hand over all data pertaining to the Romanian election.
This is a first, and a potentially significant one. While concerns about misinformation and election meddling are widespread these days, no other democracy, to our knowledge, has canceled an election result outright over social media posts or allegations of foreign meddling.
Flagging the risky precedent of the move, Lasconi herself, who lost to Georgescu in the first round, said “Whether we like it or not, from a legal and legitimate point of view, nine million Romanian citizens, both in the country and in the diaspora, have expressed their preference for a certain candidate. We cannot ignore their will!”
What happens next?
Romania, a key NATO partner that shares a border with Ukraine, is now in a moment of significant institutional uncertainty.
This Sunday’s runoff has now been canceled, and the government must start the entire election over again from scratch. Romanian law suggests that could happen as soon as Dec. 22. It is unclear whether Georgescu will be permitted to run at all.
Earlier this year, Romanian courts banned pro-Russian, far-right European Parliament MP Diana Sosoaca from running in the presidential election, saying her criticisms of NATO and the EU were at odds with Romania’s founding documents.
Protesters hold placards during a candlelight vigil to condemn South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's surprise declarations of the failed martial law and to call for his resignation in Seoul, South Korea, December 5, 2024.
On Thursday, Han Dong-hoon, the leader of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s party, said he was opposed to impeaching Yoon because it would add to national confusion. By Friday, however, he had changed his mind.
“Should Yoon continue to serve as president,” Han said Friday, "I think there is great risk for extreme actions like this martial-law declaration to happen again."
Now, the clock is ticking: By Saturday, lawmakers will vote on Yoon’s future, and if two-thirds agree to impeach, he will be immediately suspended from office.
Han’s change of heart may be linked to reports that Yoon ordered Han’s arrest when he declared martial law on Tuesday. According to the National Intelligence Service deputy director, Yoon’s arrest list also included the leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, and three opposition lawmakers. But there is confusion about that, too, because the head of the intelligence service said the opposite — that Yoon had not ordered arrests of the lawmakers.
Details of the chaotic planning “are more damning than initially expected and indicate that South Korea’s political system may have narrowly escaped a far more destabilizing outcome," says Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan.
The opposition controls a majority but falls eight votes short of the two-thirds margin needed to impeach. If Han lends his support to the effort, then Yoon’s goose is likely cooked.
Meanwhile, amid fears that Yoon might try to declare martial law again, South Korea's acting defense chief says he would refuse any such orders.
Watch the streets. Many South Korean voters are outraged by Yoon’s actions, and a failure to remove him from office quickly is likely to cause the modest protests and strikes to grow dramatically. We have our eye on the reaction to the impeachment vote, and to Han’s reversal on fighting it.