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Politics
An American flag flutters over a ship and shipping containers at the Port of Los Angeles, in San Pedro California, U.S., May 13, 2025.
Donald Trump’s supporters like to tout his 1987 book, The Art of the Deal, when they discuss his trade gamesmanship, but, a month after “Liberation Day,” it is getting harder for them to convince skeptical Americans that he is winning more than they are losing.
On Monday, the White House announced a breakthrough in trade talks with China, but experts note that American negotiators appear to have won few concessions after a month of damaging uncertainty for US business. The on-again-off-again tariffs have rattled small business owners and stoked fears of a recession.
The announcement of a partial reprieve — there is still a 30% tariff on most imports from China — was greeted as good news by shippers, who had shifted cargo vessels to other routes, but uncertainty around the future of the relationship remains high, which discourages investment.
The editorialists at the Wall Street Journal think Trump may have learned that his capacity to play chicken with China is not as strong as he thought it was, which may weaken the internal faction of China hawks led by Peter Navarro, senior counselor for trade and manufacturing.
The remaining tariffs still give Trump leverage over other leaders, since many countries want to keep selling into the American market, but opinion polling shows that voters are skeptical and fear Trump’s tariff policy will stoke inflation. Since the Chinese Communist Party doesn’t have to worry about midterm elections, and the US president does, they seem to have decided they can outwait him, which may limit how far he can push his luck.
Data center servers and components containing the newest artificial intelligence chips from Nvidia are seen on display at the company's GTC software developer conference in San Jose, California, USA, on March 19, 2025.
8: Where do US advanced microchips go? US lawmakers want to know. A bipartisan group of eight congresspeople has introduced a bill requiring tracking technology on any export-bound artificial intelligence chips. The proposal, similar to a Senate bill introduced last week, is meant to stop cutting-edge American AI tech from going to China.
100: Tesla owner Elon Musk’s political action committee is being sued for failing to pay the $100 that it – controversially – promised to give swing-state voters who signed a pro-Constitution petition during last year’s presidential election.
21: The central Canadian province of Manitoba is struggling to control 21 active wildfires. The fast-moving blazes killed two people earlier this week and have forced the evacuation of more than 1,000 Manitobans. So far, this season’s 80 fires are nearly double the 20-year average.
11 billion: Honda is moving production of some of its vehicles from Ontario to the US, and postponing a plan to invest $11 billion in the production of EVs and batteries in Canada. The move is a direct response to Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian autos and parts.
3,000: Honda may be leaving, but the rubber ducks are coming! The owners of the Rubber Duck Museum in Point Roberts, Washington, a US town accessible only via Canadian territory, are decamping for Canada — along with their famous retail shop of 3,000 novelty ducks. The reason? Trump’s threats and tariffs on Canada have caused such a severe drop in cross-border visitors that the business can no longer stay afloat in the US.
In a clip from GZERO World’s latest episode, Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen lays out what Democrats must do to reclaim political momentum—and it starts with ditching reactive politics. “Voters don’t like people who always seem to have their finger to the wind,” he says. “Probably if I’d done that, I wouldn’t have gone to El Salvador.”
Van Hollen argues that while opposing Trump’s policies is important, Democrats also need to offer a proactive alternative that resonates with working Americans. A central piece of that, he says, is countering Trump’s tax agenda, which he calls “the great betrayal.” “He’s throwing working people under the bus to help the Elon Musks of the world,” Van Hollen warns, pointing to tax cuts for the wealthy at the expense of middle- and low-income Americans.
He believes the party’s path forward should include targeted tax relief, expanded access to healthcare, and a stronger focus on economic security—issues that speak directly to voters who once backed Trump but may be open to change.
Watch full episode: Why Sen. Chris Van Hollen stood up to Trump
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
On Ian Bremmer’s World in 60 Seconds: Ian dives into the Brazil-China relationship, India and Pakistan ceasefire, and Trump’s Gulf States tour.
Ian Bremmer's takeaways:
- On Brazil-China ties: “As the Chinese de-risk away from the United States, that is a significant benefit to Brazil.”
- On India-Pakistan tensions,: “The ceasefire will hold—for now—but the region is more dangerous than it was a few weeks ago.”
- On Trump’s Middle East visit: “He (Trump) wants this to be the most successful foreign trip he’s had as president.”
Ian Bremmer sits down with Senator Chris Van Hollen in the US Capitol Complex in the latest episode of GZERO World to discuss his high-profile trip to El Salvador and what comes next. Van Hollen's visit was intended to draw attention to Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Maryland resident wrongfully deported and held in a Salvadoran prison. But despite the media splash and a unanimous Supreme Court ruling demanding his return, the senator says the Trump administration has done nothing: “The Vice President of El Salvador made it clear repeatedly that the ball was in the Trump administration’s court… They’re only holding him because the Trump administration is paying them to do so.”
So what’s next? Van Hollen is pursuing a three-pronged strategy. First, he’s relying on a federal judge to compel the administration to comply with the court order. Second, he and Senator Tim Kaine are introducing a resolution requiring a public accounting of the administration’s actions and of El Salvador’s human rights practices. And third, he’s turning up the heat on Senate Republicans: “We’re trying to shame our colleagues into standing up for the Constitution. So far, there seems to be no bottom to which they will sink.”
Even after the trip, Van Hollen insists the fight isn’t over—but with Trump’s open defiance of the judiciary, he warns, the rule of law itself may be what’s really on the line.
Watch full episode: Why Sen. Chris Van Hollen stood up to Trump
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
- HARD NUMBERS: Maryland senator flies to El Salvador, Russian journalists jailed, California sues Trump admin over tariffs, EU tilts right on asylum, Peru’s ex-president guilty of money laundering ›
- El Salvador's Bukele refuses to return wrongly-deported Maryland man, and offers to jail US citizens too ›
- The Graphic Truth: How does El Salvador's prison rate stack up? ›
Lots of headline announcements from Trump himself, and the biggest one in terms of the markets is not necessarily something you'd call a success. It's more a backtrack, but a useful backtrack nonetheless and one that we're all glad to see. Trump, of course, kicked off this global trade war with pretty much everyone, but especially with the Chinese, where he was essentially talking about a decoupling between the two largest economies in the world, raising tariffs against China to 145%, meaning nobody's going to buy any goods from China. Chinese doing the same against the Americans, raising up to 125%.
China was not going to pick up the phone to call Trump, and he was surprised that they hit back. He thought that this was going to lead to a negotiation and much more careful caution from the Chinese. As you saw from a lot of American allies around the world, not the case. And so, not only did he get his own administration to respond and talk with the Chinese and say, "We'd like to engage in person." But also sent Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Jamieson Greer, US Trade Rep, by far the most capable on the trade side that are senior and report to Trump.
And after a couple of days of meetings in Geneva, we've got 90 days off, and we have 125% off the American tariffs. So, we're at, what? 30% or 115% off, or 30% for the Americans, 10% for the Chinese. In other words, trade can happen again. And a joint statement from the US and Chinese governments, which is very rare under any government, frankly, with China, certainly with an adversary, to show that there is no daylight on the desire to pull back against decoupling, and also to engage directly between the two countries over the coming months to try to ensure that these trade gets to a mutually more respectful place.
Now, what's interesting is Trump had been trying to push so many allies around the world to align with the US on decoupling from China as part of the trade negotiations, that obviously, that piece of the negotiations isn't going to move anywhere. Japan pushed back, most countries aren't interested, certainly not the Europeans. Now, it's not really going to be credible, and I think Trump will quietly drop it, and the markets of course shoot up as a consequence of that.
So, two steps forward, two steps back. We're kind of where we were before Liberation Day on US-China. Yes, there are some additional sectoral tariffs, and this is going to be costly. But on the bilateral relationship, frankly, not an enormous amount has actually changed. Okay, so that's not a win.
What do I mean that he's had successful time on the global stage? Well, internationally, there've been a bunch of wins. India, Pakistan, significant escalation on the back of this Kashmiri terrorist incident, with lots of Indians getting killed, Indian civilians. The Indians respond by hitting Pakistani terrorist targets, according to India, but in civilian locations, so they don't mind that Pakistani civilians are getting killed. Then Pakistan responded, then India responded, and the Americans stepped in and facilitated a ceasefire.
Marco Rubio probably his single win on the global stage that we've seen so far, helps him with Trump. He also announced there would be trilateral engagement going forward between the countries. That's not going to happen. But we are, I would say again, at the status quo ante on Pakistan, India at this time, the Americans facilitated.
The Houthis had been threatening US and other shipping through the Red Sea. The Americans decided to blow up lots of Houthis military leadership capabilities. That was the Signal Gate leak that came out. And a few weeks after that, the Houthis said, "Okay, we won't attack the shipping lanes anymore, as long as you stop attacking us." That's a win for the United States. It was facilitated by Iran, who's engaged in direct bilateral negotiations with the United States right now, and Iran in a much worse position geopolitically, the Gulf states would love to see that happening. They're hosting Trump this week. That's likely to progress significantly. Maybe even Trump will meet with high-level Iranians. We'll see if we get a surprise there. But nonetheless, that's all in a much better position than it was before. And so too relations between the Gulf States and the US. Saudi US bilateral relations, including a willingness to allow for nuclear energy and development in Saudi Arabia.
Lots of new investments that are going to be announced with all three stops. Yes, there's this unfortunate announcement of a gift that shouldn't be accepted from Qatar of a 747. And then that's going to wrap up the first trip that Trump makes internationally, as well as the release of the sole remaining US hostage in Gaza. And that had been driven by the Israelis together with the US and the US angry with Netanyahu, who's continuing to engage in a war and taking over lots of territory in Gaza and not allowing humanitarian aid in. The Americans deciding they were going to negotiate directly for themselves, and with success before that trip.
So, all of those things, announcements that are frankly welcome. And the one big conflict where we're not seeing progress is Russia, Ukraine. It is plausible that there will be a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky on Thursday. Zelensky is calling for it, the Europeans, the Americans are calling for it directly. Let's see if Putin actually shows up, or if he says, "I want to do a lower level meeting to start." Either way, it looks very unlikely that he's going to actually accept a ceasefire on terms that would be remotely acceptable by the Ukrainians, the Europeans, or even the United States, which means not much progress there.
But at least Trump not willing to do a deal with Putin absent a ceasefire, which means the Americans, the Europeans, and even the Ukrainians are more aligned today than they were a week ago, two weeks ago. Certainly during that shambolic Zelensky visit to the Oval just a few weeks back. So, good news over the weekend, and some good news coming this week. And I'm personally delighted to be able to report some things that are positive about what's happening in Trump administration, as opposed to things that are breaking and things that are falling apart. Let's hope that continues. I'll talk to you all real soon.
In the latest episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen about his recent trip to El Salvador and his broader concerns over the Trump administration’s abuse of executive power. Van Hollen visited Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man legally residing in the United States (though who initially entered illegally) who was wrongly deported to a prison in El Salvador. Despite a unanimous Supreme Court ruling ordering his return, “the President admitted that he could get him back by simply picking up the phone,” Van Hollen says. “They are in violation of a nine-to-nothing Supreme Court order.”
Van Hollen accuses the Salvadoran government of detaining Abrego Garcia only because “the Trump administration is paying us money to do so.” And while Republicans have remained largely silent, Van Hollen reveals that privately, “they have conceded that we are at risk… when we have a lawless president.”
Then the conversation turns to foreign policy and trade, where Van Hollen criticizes deep State Department cuts and Trump’s sweeping tariffs. “This tariff chaos is hurting our economy,” he says, adding that lawsuits are already challenging what he calls an abuse of emergency powers. On domestic politics, Van Hollen argues that Democrats need to offer a clear economic vision: “Trump’s tax plan… is what I call the great betrayal.”
Finally, the senator reflects on the future of the Democratic Party. He urges fellow Democrats to be more than just “no on Trump,” calling for clear alternatives—especially when it comes to taxes, healthcare, and economic policy. He sees Trump’s tax cuts as “exhibit A of the great betrayal” of working Americans and calls for a plan that benefits those left behind.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
- Trump versus the courts ›
- El Salvador's Bukele refuses to return wrongly-deported Maryland man, and offers to jail US citizens too ›
- HARD NUMBERS: Maryland senator flies to El Salvador, Russian journalists jailed, California sues Trump admin over tariffs, EU tilts right on asylum, Peru’s ex-president guilty of money laundering ›
- What does Trump’s mass deportation mean for Canada — and immigration policy? ›
- Trump’s immigration plan faces hurdles ›