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US–China relations are once again on edge. After Washington expanded export controls on Chinese tech firms, Beijing struck back with new limits on critical minerals. President Trump responded by threatening 100% tariffs, then quickly walked them back.
Ian Bremmer says neither side wants a full trade war: “Trump doesn’t want to risk inflation or crash the markets, and Xi knows both countries have real leverage over each other.”
As Trump and Xi prepare to meet, from TikTok control to Taiwan tensions, Ian explains why “this relationship is tense, but not heading for a blow-up.”
64: Torrid rains in Mexico last week – the result of an unusual clash of hot and cold fronts – have left 64 dead and another 65 missing. The rain damaged some 100,000 homes, and has left five states without power. The worst-affected areas were in the central parts of the country, as well as along the Gulf Coast.
3: Just three days after the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded its Peace Prize to Venezuela’s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, Caracas shut its embassy in Oslo on Monday. The Venezuelan didn’t mention Machado in its statement about the closure. Norway also suffered a diplomatic blow for similar reasons in 2010, when China suspended trade relations after the Nobel Committee awarded its prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo.
5: China sanctioned five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of aiding US investigations. The move coincided with new US-China port fees and sent Hanwha shares down nearly 6%. Seoul said it’s assessing the impact as tensions over shipbuilding escalate.What We’re Watching: Israeli hostages return home, China snaps back at Trump’s tariff threat, Madagascar’s president flees the country
Released hostage Evyatar David, who was kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas and taken to Gaza, reacts upon arrival at the site of Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Hospital, in Petah Tikva, Israel, on October 13, 2025.
The Israeli hostages are finally home – but what next for Gaza?
After two years in Hamas captivity, the last 20 living Israeli hostages – all of them men – have returned home from Gaza, sparking jubilant scenes both for the families and across the Jewish state. US President Donald Trump touted their return during a speech to the Knesset, declaring that Israel was “at peace.” As part of the deal, Israel released over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. Though the ceasefire is holding in Gaza, there remains a huge amount of uncertainty over the fate of the enclave and its management, as thousands of Palestinians return home to destroyed neighborhoods. Hamas is reappearing on Gazan streets, and has been clashing with rival Palestinian clans in recent days – with dozens killed. Under Trump’s 20-point peace plan, Hamas will have no role in Gaza’s future, yet the US president said over the weekend that the militant group has “approval for a period of time” to run security there. But for how long?
China hits back following Trump’s tariff threat
There might be a ceasefire in Gaza, but the US-China trade war is heating up again, as Beijing pledged to hit back at Washington should Trump follow through with his Friday threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The US president is trying to bring the temperature down again, saying on social media yesterday that he doesn’t want to “hurt” China. He also appeared to retract his threat to cancel his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea. Markets swung wildly over the weekend and into Monday amid the latest war of words between the world’s two biggest superpowers.
Madagascar’s president flees the country
Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina fled the country on Monday, after the elite CAPSAT military unit joined the Gen-Z led protests that have raged across the country since September. CAPSAT further announced that they are taking over the army. The protests began over water and electricity shortages but have spiraled into grievances like corruption and quality of life. CAPSAT brought Rajoelina to power in a 2009 coup, but on Saturday announced that it would not shoot on the protesters and escorted them into the capital’s main square. The toppling of Madagascar’s government opens questions of who will lead the country next, and mirrors recent protests against ruling elites in countries like Nepal, Indonesia, and Morocco.What We’re Watching: China increases its trade leverage, Modi and Starmer meet, US undercuts Canada’s auto industry
U.S. President Donald Trump takes part in a welcoming ceremony with China's President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017.
China cracks down on critical minerals
China has implemented broad new restrictions on exports of rare earth and other critical minerals vital for semiconductors, the auto industry, and military technology, of which it controls 70% of the global supply. The restrictions come after China cut back its purchases of US soybeans, as Beijing seeks to strengthen its negotiating position ahead of trade talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump later this month.
Modi and Starmer cut defense deals in New Delhi
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and a posse of 100 business leaders took a trip to India on Monday, where he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi unveiled a plan to double their current $56 billion of trade by 2030. During the visit, they announced new defense deals worth over $799 million, marking a push to reduce India’s reliance on Russian arms, even as the two sides differ over Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Starmer confirmed he discussed India’s purchases of Russian oil with Modi but respects India’s strategic independence and sees defense cooperation as key to strengthening their partnership.
Carney and Trump meet to talk tariffs
Washington and Toronto buzzed this week with talk of the Canada-US relationship. On Tuesday Prime Minister Mark Carney joined President Donald Trump in the Oval Office for a warm but inconclusive meeting. There were no breakthroughs on tariffs, just promises to “work quickly” on steel, aluminum, and energy. Trump did reportedly appreciate Carney’s proposal to revive the long-dead Keystone XL pipeline, which Trump had proposed in February.
The next day in Toronto, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told attendees at the Eurasia Group and BMO US-Canada Summit that bilateral tariff deals were possible but that the integration of the two countries’ auto industries was “over.” This provoked angry reaction from Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who threatened to retaliate by cutting off energy and critical-mineral exports to the US.
In this episode of "Ask Ian," Ian Bremmer explores the evolving AI landscape and competition between the US and China.
Both countries lead in AI capabilities but differ in strategy. The US focuses on developing foundational Large Language Models (LLMs), aiming for consumer engagement and significant valuation increases. In contrast, China seeks to deploy AI in core industrial sectors like biotechnology and space. Ian notes that China wants “more efficiency, they want better energy use.”
Ian also highlights a shift in US policy, citing Nvidia's deal with Trump on chip sales to China. He contrasts the geopolitical significance of TikTok to Trump's agenda with how Taiwan matters to Xi Jinping.
Lastly, Ian warns of societal risks due to AI's psychological impact, advocating for stringent regulations and cautioning against unchecked consumer AI deployment: "We need far better regulations, and we need far more safety for society and for our mental and emotional well‑being.”
The US economy looks unstoppable, with booming markets, surging productivity, and foreign investment pouring in. In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer warns that short-term success may hide long-term dangers.
“I’m worried about immigration, education, and energy,” he says.
From deterring skilled immigrants to undermining world-class universities and lagging behind China on post-carbon energy, the US risks trading future competitiveness for temporary gains.
“The United States remains the most powerful country in the world,” Ian notes, “but that power comes from its economy and military, not its political system. And that’s a long-term problem.”
What We’re Watching: Trump and Xi’s Friday phone call, EU introduces new Russia sanctions, US plots Afghanistan return
In this photo illustration, TikTok logo is displayed on a smartphone with the national flags of China and the United States in the background.
The world’s most powerful pairing talk TikTok and trade
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly discussed how they can keep TikTok online in the United States and whether they can ease trade tensions during a phone call Friday morning, their first since June. The topic of trade is a thorny one, most recently due to disputes over Nvidia chip purchases. As for TikTok, the two superpowers were expected to finalize a deal for the sale of the social media app – a consortium of US firms is set to control the company. If the TikTok deal is completed, it’s possible that Trump and Xi could meet in person during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit being held in South Korea around Halloween.
EU introduces new sanctions on Russia
The European Union rolled out its 19th sanctions package to squeeze Russia’s war chest, pledging to end Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) imports by early 2027, blacklist 560 oil tankers, and target crypto platforms and Chinese firms doing business with Moscow. The package still needs to gain the approval of the 27-member bloc, but is expected to be adopted, and comes as Trump has said he is ready to sanction Russia but only if European nations stop purchasing Russian oil.