Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
China
A banner announces the construction of a photovoltaic solar farm in Cabaiguan, Cuba, on May 21, 2025.
55: China is financing 55 new solar power projects in Cuba this year, the latest sign of how it is overtaking Russia as the crisis-wracked island’s main benefactor. Some of Moscow’s recent projects in the communist country have stalled: a Russian firm pledged two years ago to revitalize a sugar mill that once employed 2,000 people, but it still sits idle.
3%: In a win for US President Donald Trump, Canada walked back on its 3% Digital Services Tax that prompted the United States to suspend trade talks on Friday. The tax, which disproportionately affected American technology firms, was set to take effect on Monday.
71: Israel’s strike last Tuesday allegedly killed 71 people at a notorious detention facility in Tehran, per Iranian State Media. The prison houses thousands of political prisoners, including opposition politicians, journalists, and activists.
4,000: More than a third of Tuvalu’s population – around 4,000 residents – have applied for a landmark ‘climate visa,’ which grants Australian residency to migrants from Pacific Island nations battling rising sea levels. NASA scientists expect that the country’s main island, home to 60% of the population, will be fully submerged by 2050.
$80,000: US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem reportedly re-routed $80,000 in political donations to a newly established personal company during her time as South Dakota’s governor in 2023. Noem’s lawyer said she “fully complied with the letter and the spirit of the law.”Anna Wintour attends The Costume Institute's exhibition "Superfine: Tailoring Black Style" at The Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City, U.S., May 5, 2025.
37: Anna Wintour is stepping down after 37 years as editor-in-chief of American Vogue. She revolutionised the iconic fashion magazine, introducing celebrities to the cover and spotlighting emerging designers. Wintour will remain Vogue’s global editor, as well as chief content officer at the magazine’s publisher Condé Nast.
1: China’s Central Military Commission, the country’s highest military leadership body, now has one fewer member after voting to remove Miao Hua, senior admiral of the People’s Liberation Army. Miao has been under investigation for “serious violations of discipline” since last November, and his ouster is seen as part of a broader crackdown on corruption under Chinese President Xi Jinping.
28: Norwegian police on Friday accused Marius Borg Høiby, the 28-year old stepson of Crown Prince Haakon, of multiple counts of rape, sexual assault, and bodily harm. The announcement follows a months-long investigation involving “double-digit” victims.
$30 million: The US State Department approved $30 million in funding for the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, a controversial US and Israeli-backed aid organization that has been criticized by the UN and other rights groups. Over 400 Palestinians have been killed at various aid points in recent weeks, per UN estimates, after Israeli soldiers fired into crowds seeking food. Israel has reportedly launched a war-crime probe into the incidents.Hard Numbers: European leader faces no confidence vote, Sheinbaum wants to sue SpaceX, & more
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during the European Council summit at the headquarters of the European Council, in Brussels, Belgium, on June 26, 2026.
401: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen faces a no-confidence vote over “Pfizergate,” a scandal over how she secured vaccines in 2021 by personally texting Pfizer’s CEO. It would take an unlikely 401 votes in the 720-strong European Parliament to oust her, but the vote may push her to make political concessions to both the left and right to shore up support.
25: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is threatening to sue Elon Musk’s SpaceX for debris from ground tests near the Mexican border. Her move comes after the US government in May increased the permitted number of annual SpaceX launches from 5 to 25, despite concerns about adverse effects on the environment.
2: Two Chinese international students studying in South Korea were arrested on Wednesday for using drones to film a US carrier at a naval base. They were accused of violating the Protection of Military Bases and Installations Act, and it’s the first time foreign nationals have been detained on such charges. South Korea’s new left-leaning president has sought to distance Seoul from Washington somewhat, raising the prospect of greater tension between its largest security partner, the United States, and its largest trading partner, China.
6-3: In a 6-3 vote, the US Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that Planned Parenthood cannot sue the state of South Carolina over its effort to defund the reproductive health clinics. Abortion is legal in South Carolina only during the first six weeks of pregnancy, but the decision is expected to diminish Planned Parenthood’s ability to provide other healthcare to patients, like physical exams and cancer screenings.
What’s next for Iran’s regime? Ian Bremmer says, “It’s much more likely that the supreme leader ends up out, but the military… continues to run the country.” Despite global speculation, real change will depend on the Iranian people, not foreign intervention, says Ian.
As attention shifts to the Middle East, Ukraine faces intensified Russian strikes with less international spotlight. Still, Ian notes NATO support remains “pretty solid,” and the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague will be a key signal of that.
And as China pushes for a multipolar currency system, Ian is skeptical: “It’s not premature to talk about multipolarity economically—it is in terms of a currency order.”
A satellite image shows the Natanz nuclear facility after an airstrike in Iran, on June 14, 2025.
The Israel-Iran conflict continues to rage on: US President Donald Trump called for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” on Tuesday, while Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled out surrendering Wednesday morning. Iran is also considering bombing US bases.
Much of the world’s focus is, understandably, on what the United States will do next (for more, see here) – but there are other major powers with a big stake in this conflict too. Here’s a roundup of their views on the rapidly escalating conflict.
Russia on the fence. Moscow, long friendly with Tehran, has drawn even closer to the Islamic Republic since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, in large part thanks to Iran’s supply of drones. The two sides even signed a security agreement earlier this year. Yet with Iran now facing a bombardment, the Kremlin has offered little to Tehran other than verbal condemnation of Israel. That’s because… it’s complicated.
Iran’s downfall – coming after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime last December – would mean the loss of another major Russian ally in the region. The Kremlin, though, has also long-sought to keep Tehran from going nuclear, and has been reluctant to furnish the Islamic Republic with certain weapons – in part because the Kremlin also maintains good relations with Israel. Putin must tread carefully here, but he is certainly on his back foot.
Risks for Beijing. China has publicly denounced Israel, but a more immediate concern is Iran’s oil supplies. Beijing now sources 16% of its seaborn crude oil imports from the Islamic Republic, and gets it at a discounted price. Smaller Chinese refineries have become reliant on Iranian oil, switching to this energy source in 2022 to protect their margins. If those supplies are cut – either by Israel or by Iran shutting the critical Strait of Hormuz in order to pressure the world into stopping Israel – it would be another hit to China’s already-vulnerable economy.
“China is quietly nervous, but doesn’t want to interfere,” says Eurasia Group’s Director of Analysis Marc Gustafson. “China gets a lot of oil from Iran and is worried Israel will strike the oil facilities. It also knows that Iran is a pariah state for most of the West, so it won’t be very vocal in defending the country.”
Europe backs Israel, but with some caveats On the surface, Europe is wholeheartedly backing Israel. The G7 – which includes four of the strongest and largest European countries – issued a joint statement at their summit this week that condemned Iran.
Still there are some differences of opinion. While Germany has praised Israel for doing the West’s “dirty work” and the UK signaled possible military support for the Israeli Defense Forces, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that regime change in Iran would cause “chaos.” His position has angered Trump.
Conflicted views in the Arab world. In public, countries in the Gulf and the Levant are criticizing Israel’s attacks on Iran. Privately, there may be more satisfaction than they let on. For nearly half a century, many Sunni Arabs have viewed Revolutionary Iran as a meddlesome and disruptive foreign power, fomenting proxy conflicts in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and beyond.
Then there’s Syria, where the current government overthrew al-Assad’s brutal, Iran-allied dictatorship just six months ago. It’s no surprise that Damascus’s new leaders, resentful of Iran but also delicately smoothing ties with a belligerent Israel, have gone radio silent.
The one notable exception is Qatar. The oil-rich peninsula maintains cordial relations with Iran, and even shares a gas field with them – Israel bombed it on Saturday.
But if there is any schadenfreude among Arab nations, there is also wariness of the conflict exploding into a wider regional war that draws them in. As the Persian proverb goes: “Those who laugh on Friday will cry on Sunday.”Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Kiribati's President and Foreign Minister Taneti Maamau meet after the Third China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Xiamen, China, on May 28, 2025.
Last week, something highly unusual was spotted off the coast of Japan. In an unprecedented show of naval power, two Chinese aircraft carriers were seen cruising together near the country’s easternmost islands of Minamitori and Okinotori—far out into the Pacific Ocean.
The carrier groups conducted drills alongside one another for the first time in Pacific waters, accompanied by jets, helicopters, and supporting warships.
The operations underscore Beijing’s growing bid for influence in the Pacific, and experts say they are part of a broader strategy that extends far beyond China’s immediate neighbors.
Less than two weeks ago, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi hosted senior diplomats from 11 Pacific Island nations in the southern city of Xiamen, where he pledged $2 million to support infrastructure building and climate adaptation efforts in the region.
The Pacific Islands are a valuable prize on the geopolitical chessboard – around a dozen nations comprising thousands of islands and atolls stretching more than 7,000 miles east of Australia.
“All of the Pacific Island region weighs into China's kind of broader strategy,” says Kathryn Paik, former director of Southeast Asia and the Pacific on the US National Security Council, who is now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
China has stepped up its engagement in the region in recent months—a trend underscored by its navy ships making an unprecedented voyage around Australia and carrying out live-fire exercises off the coast of Sydney earlier this year.
What’s motivating China’s drive into the Pacific? Closer ties with Pacific Island nations could boost China’s influence in international bodies like the UN, and they could also give Beijing preferential access to vast territorial waters containing mineral wealth and fish stocks.
But beyond those diplomatic and economic gains, there is a bigger goal as well, says Rory Medcalf, Head of the National Security College at Australia National University. Dominating the Pacific with naval power could increase China’s ability to “knock the United States out of a future war in the region.”
Once a key battleground in World War Two, the Pacific Islands now lie at the center of Beijing’s broader Indo-Pacific security strategy. From the Solomon Islands to Kiribati, China has made repeated attempts to leverage its development projects to gain access to strategic ports and airfields—with the PLA’s newest destroyer docking in Vanuatu’s Port Vila late last year.
“Any Chinese presence there would significantly complicate the US and Australian calculus when it comes to any contingency in either the South China Sea or Taiwan,” says Paik. “If they were to actually be able to build out a port in Solomon Island, similar to what they did in Cambodia, that would be just like a game changer for the US, Australia and others.”
What do the Pacific Islands want? Pacific Island countries face a multitude of development challenges stemming from geographic isolation and the impacts of climate change, to a growing flight of skilled workers. With a quarter of Pacific Islanders struggling below the poverty line—regional leaders will be turning to any and all partners capable of providing meaningful support.
“They want development assistance. They want economic growth. They want to protect their natural resources,” says Medcalf. “A lot of the development assistance China has provided has been effectively building grand infrastructure to satisfy the political needs of the government.”
China has ramped up its development assistance in recent decades, positioning itself as one of the largest aid providers in the region. Between 2008 and 2022, China committed $10.6 billion to various projects in the region, ranging from building transport infrastructure and government buildings, to supporting healthcare and education initiatives.
But China is still the challenger in a historically Western-aligned region. Australia remains by far the Pacific’s leading development partner, committing $20.6 billion over the same period. And other Western-aligned countries are active as well.
“It’s a permanent contest, with other players—not only the United States, but Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and, to some extent, the Europeans as well,” says Medcalf.
Together these countries have provided alternatives to Chinese assistance, with the QUAD countries—Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—announcing a range of multilateral initiatives to boost engagement in the region in 2023.
Beyond this,Pacific Island leaders and their constituents are skeptical about China’s growing security involvement and influence in local government. In 2021, the Solomon Islands’ decision to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China triggered nationwide anti-government protests, with rioters torching businesses in Honiara’s Chinatown.
“One of the biggest challenges for China is that the region certainly does prefer and is more just aligned culturally and historically with traditional western partners,” Paik says. “There's a lot of unsettlement about where the money's going, why the decisions are made, of certain types of infrastructure, of the governing of the government.”
Still the advantage the US and its allies currently hold over China relies on them “staying on the ball” in the region—an approach that analysts say the Trump administration has deprioritized. The US’ cuts to USAID programs, tariffs, and withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization have opened the door for China to expand its influence in the region.
Last Wednesday, alarm bells rang in Canberra and London after the Pentagon announced that it was reassessing the AUKUS security pact, a multibillion dollar deal to counter Chinese influence by equipping Australia with a nuclear powered submarine fleet.
But while the geopolitical tides continue to pull the Pacific Island nations in different directions, their people are often focused on more immediate problems.
“We've actually got every chance of holding the line [against China], and most importantly, we've got to do it in a way that's respectful of the priorities of Pacific Island countries, because their priority is their own development,” says Medcalf.
What We’re Watching: Minnesota assassin suspect captured, New Zealand weighs its superpower alliances
Memorial outside the Minnesota State Capitol in honor of Democratic state assemblywoman Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, after a gunman killed them, in St. Paul, Minnesota, U.S., June 15, 2025.
Suspect captured in killings of Minnesota legislators
Minnesota’s massive manhunt ended Sunday with the arrest of 57-year-old Vance Boelter, accused of killing State Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, and injuring State Sen. John Hoffman and his wife. Disguised with a rubber mask and fake badge, Boelter posed as a police officer to enter the Hoffmans’ home, and a list in his car revealed 70 other targets – ranging from politicians to Planned Parenthood centers. State governor Tim Walz said the killings were “politically motivated” but the specifics of Boelter’s beliefs and motivations remain under investigation.
Pacific Pressure: A Kiwi in Beijing
New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing this week, amid a growing debate in Wellington about the China relationship. Last week, several former PMs penned an open letter last week warning against aligning too closely with the US.Luxon says the visit will focus on the $38 billion of trade NZ did with China last year. But amid a deepening US-China divide, the geopolitical footwork for New Zealand is tricky: how to maintain economic ties with Beijing alongside security cooperation with the West, including potential membership in the US-led “AUKUS" defence pact.