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Economy
As the US economy continues to defy expectations, Eurasia Group Managing Director of Global Macro Robert Kahn says the key question is whether a slowdown has been avoided or merely delayed. “The headline here is the impressive resilience of the US, maybe also the global economy over the last six months,” Kahn tells GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis on the sidelines of the 2025 World Bank–IMF Annual Meetings.
He points to an AI-driven boom and tariff dynamics as major short-term supports, while warning that these trends may not be sustainable. Kahn also highlights deep uncertainty in the US–China trade relationship, describing a “fragile” moment of misunderstanding and escalation. Looking ahead, he flags the uneven nature of US growth and a prolonged government shutdown as key risks that could shift the economic outlook heading into the end of the year.
This conversation is presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical discussions on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
As the global economy faces uncertainty, Axel van Trotsenburg, Senior Managing Director of the World Bank, warns that “a wait-and-see attitude” is holding back investment and growth, especially in developing countries. Speaking with GZERO Media’s Tony Maciulis on the sidelines of the 2025 World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings, van Trotsenburg highlights human capital and infrastructure as key priorities, with a growing urgency to bridge both the digital and AI divides.
On the role of technology, he stresses the promise of “small AI,” which can empower farmers and small businesses, while cautioning that large-scale AI depends on reliable energy access, a gap Africa must close to unlock opportunity. Reflecting on his 37-year career, he cites the World Bank’s evolution into a truly global institution and the mobilization of resources for the poorest countries as major achievements.
This conversation is presented by GZERO Media in partnership with Microsoft. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical discussions on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Three Numbers, One Story: Trump ups India's tariffs
The US imposed steep 50% tariffs on Indian goods Wednesday, doubling an earlier 25% levy after New Delhi increased purchases of Russian oil. The move threatens $48.2 billion in exports, hitting labor-intensive sectors like textiles, jewelry, leather, food, and autos hardest, though pharmaceuticals and electronics are spared. Indian exporters warn of job losses and unviable businesses, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed not to yield to US pressure on agriculture and dairy access. With trade talks stalled, India is preparing reforms to boost domestic demand and diversify exports toward Europe, Africa, and Southeast Asia.
What We’re Watching: Powell signals rate cuts, Sri Lanka’s anti-corruption push, Gaza starvation confirmed
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attends the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's 2025 Jackson Hole economic symposium, "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy" in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 21, 2025.
Powell opens door to rate cuts
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank could cut rates as soon as next month during his annual Jackson Hole address, pointing to a slowing labor market and the risk that tariffs could push prices higher. While jobs remain stable, Powell noted that both hiring and labor demand are weakening. Markets jumped on the signal of easing, a win for President Donald Trump, who has been pressing the Fed to cut rates. But as Powell spoke, Trump renewed threats to fire Fed board member Lisa Cook, potentially allowing him to appoint a more sympathetic replacement — though he would face legal hurdles to do so.
Sri Lanka’s anti-corruption push nabs former president
Sri Lanka’s former president Ranil Wickremesinghe, who led the country from 2022 to 2024, was arrested Friday on corruption charges tied to oversees trips while in office. Wickremesinghe came to power following mass protests over the island’s worst-ever economic crisis, and was credited with stabilizing the economy and securing an IMF bailout. That bailout came with harsh austerity, however, fueling public anger and paving the way for his defeat last year to leftist reformer Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who campaigned on rooting out corruption. Wickremesinghe’s arrest is the most high-profile yet in a post-crisis anti-graft drive that has already ensnared 63 Sri Lankan officials and politicians.
Parts of Gaza suffering from starvation, food insecurity group finds
Half a million people in Gaza City and its surrounding areas are suffering from famine, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) concluded. Most other parts of Gaza are experiencing severe hunger, said the food monitor. Whether Gazans have been suffering from starvation has been the subject of much debate – the IPC last year refuted a USAID report that had argued there was famine. Recent images from Gaza, as well the IPC’s reversal, tell their own story. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denies that there is starvation, and is pressing forward with plans to conquer Gaza City.What We’re Watching: Haiti turns to foreign fighters, China’s economy slumps, protests flare-up in Serbia
Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater, attends a police and military presentation, in Guayaquil, Ecuador April 5, 2025.
Haiti turns to foreign guns as gangs tighten grip
Blackwater founder Erik Prince is ramping up his private security firm’s presence in Haiti, deploying hundreds of fighters from the US, Europe, and El Salvador to battle gangs controlling much of the country. Prince’s Vectus Global, active there since March, says it’s working under a 10-year deal with Haiti’s government, including a role in tax collection. The move — involving snipers, helicopters, and drones — comes after gangs toppled the government in February, causing ongoing chaos in Port-au-Prince.
The stakes of China’s economic slowdown
China’s economy stumbled in July, with factory output hitting an eight-month low, though still 5.7% higher year-over-year than the previous July. The relative slowdown reflects weakening domestic demand, property sector woes, extreme weather, and fierce market competition — compounded by uncertainty over Donald Trump’s trade policy. Beyond the economic hit, analysts note that prolonged weakness could limit Beijing’s ability to come into impending trade talks on strong footing.
Tension in Serbia flare
Tensions in Serbia escalated this week after supporters of President Aleksandar Vučić and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) hurled flares at anti-government protestors late Wednesday. The violence follows nine months of demonstrations sparked by the deadly collapse of a train canopy in Novi Sad that killed 16 last year – an incident which protestors have blamed on state corruption and mismanagement. With Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević having already resigned earlier this year, we’ll be watching to see if Vučić can outlast this growing political crisis.
Listen: Imagine an economy where products are designed to be reused, repaired, and regenerated instead of ending up as waste. That’s the circular economy, a model that redefines recycling and transforms how small businesses operate.
In this episode of "Local to Global: The power of small business," host JJ Ramberg sits down with Ellen Jackowski, Chief Sustainability Officer at Mastercard, and Rachel McShane, Chief Financial Officer at Depop, to discuss the scale of the circular economy, why circular practices boost both sustainability and profitability, and where the industry is headed next.
From Depop’s sustainable fashion marketplace that empowers small sellers and extends the life of clothing to Mastercard’s digital solutions that enhance the consumer experience and measure impact, the discussion highlights ways entrepreneurs can launch reuse, resale, and take-back programs. The conversation also addresses the pitfalls of greenwashing and the importance of credible, consistent standards.
“Local to global: The power of small business” is a new podcast series from GZERO Media's Blue Circle Studios and Mastercard, where we'll look behind the curtain to explore the world of small businesses and why they’re positioned to play an even bigger role in the future of the global economy.
US President Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with Putin has cast a spotlight on oil exports, a key source of revenue for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The White House has been threatening Russia with so-called “secondary sanctions”, while punishing buyers — slapping a 50% tariff on India, the largest buyer of Russian crude in 2025 (more on that here). Here’s a look at the biggest buyers of Russian oil via boat in 2025.