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Russia/Ukraine
A fruit and vegetable stall is lit by small lamps during a blackout in a residential neighborhood in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 6, 2025, after massive Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure in October.
As a fourth winter of war approaches, Russia is destroying Ukraine’s energy grid faster than it can be rebuilt. “We lost everything we were restoring,” Centrenergo, one of Ukraine's largest power operators, said on Facebook following a devastating weekend assault that reduced the country's energy capacity to “zero.”
Since Sunday, most of Ukraine has been plunged into intermittent darkness as the government schedules rolling blackouts to preserve what little power remains. Russian drones and missiles have pummeled power plants, substations, and gas infrastructure in a relentless campaign that has intensified as temperatures drop. Further complicating the situation, Ukrainian authorities charged senior energy officials with a $100 million kickback scheme – which has outraged the public and raised concerns that graft could ward off desperately needed energy assistance from the European Union.
“Since the start of the war, Russia’s main objective in attacking civilian energy infrastructure is to demoralize the population and inflict economic damage,” says Eurasia Group analyst Dani Podogoretskaya. The targets extend beyond power facilities to hospitals, apartment buildings, schools, and kindergartens – all aimed at breaking Ukrainian resolve.
More than three years into the conflict, the strategy appears to be working, at least on paper. Some 69% of Ukrainians now say they are ready to settle for a negotiated end to the war, up sharply from just 22% in 2022. “This is exhausting for Ukrainians,” says Eurasia Group Russia expert Alex Brideau. “They are resisting, but it is taking a toll.”
Yet, with Vladimir Putin showing no signs of coming to the negotiating table, Ukrainians are simultaneously growing more resilient and resigned, adapting their lives to sustain the war effort. Many have purchased small generators to keep the lights on.
Ukraine's military isn't surrendering to the initiative either. Though far less frequent than the strikes they endure, Ukrainian forces have landed attacks deep inside Russia, targeting its energy infrastructure to bring the war home to ordinary Russians. “[This weekend’s] strikes have reinforced the imperative of fighting and winning,” says Podogoretskaya.
A chill across Europe. Ukraine’s energy crisis won’t remain contained within its borders. As the country’s ability for power generation collapses, it must turn to European neighbors for electricity and gas imports — a shift already reverberating through EU energy markets strained since Russia’s invasion.
The pressure is showing up in prices. German baseload electricity for January 2026 delivery has climbed nearly €10 per megawatt-hour in recent weeks, now exceeding €105/MWh and up from €94/MWh in November. Ukraine’s increased demand for imported power will continue pushing regional prices upward as winter deepens.
But the longer-term consequences may prove even more significant. Russia’s systematic destruction of Ukrainian energy infrastructure has poisoned any remaining prospects for cooperation. The idea of resuming Russian gas transit to Europe through Ukrainian pipelines – once a cornerstone of the continent’s energy supply – is now politically dead.
“Any transit arrangement would be viewed as rewarding Russia's deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure,” says Podogoretskaya. Ukrainian politicians, energy officials, and security experts are united in their opposition to serving as a conduit for Russian gas after watching their power sector and domestic production facilities reduced to rubble. This stance will shape European energy policy for years to come, cementing the EU’s pivot away from Russian energy dependence – even as the costs of that transition continue to mount.
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the changing dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war, where Europe is taking the lead in military support while the US adjusts its approach.
“This has gone from a war that the United States was providing most of the direct support to Ukraine to one where the Europeans are clearly taking the leadership role, and this is much more of an existential issue for them,” says Ian.
Meanwhile, the US has eased targeting restrictions, expanded intelligence sharing, and placed new oil sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies adding pressure even if it won’t shift the battlefield immediately.
But peace remains distant. Ukraine has signaled willingness for a ceasefire; Russia has not. “They’re demanding more territory and Ukrainian disarmament,” Ian warns. He says to expect incremental Russian gains, rising casualties, and the ongoing risk of the conflict spilling into NATO countries.
President Trump misinterpreted Vladimir Putin’s comments about nuclear-powered weapons; he reportedly ordered preparations to test US nuclear weapons, sparking Russia and North Korea to signal they might do the same.
Bildt explains how this confusion could reverse 35 years of progress in limiting nuclear tests and destabilize an already volatile world on GZERO Europe.
What We’re Watching: Orbán seeks Russian oil carveout from Trump, Nigerien uranium to pass through risky area, Israel hits southern Lebanon
US President Donald Trump and Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán shake hands as they pose for a photo, at a world leaders' summit on ending the Gaza war, amid a US-brokered prisoner-hostage swap and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on October 13, 2025.
MAGA’s European hero comes to Washington – with a mission
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will visit the White House today to try to convince US President Donald Trump to allow him to continue purchasing Russian oil despite new US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms. Oil refineries in China and India – the largest two buyers of Russian oil – are already exploring alternatives. But Orbán is hoping he can leverage his personal and ideological connection to Trump to gain a carveout. Landlocked Hungary relies on Russian pipelines for nearly 90% of its oil, though other non-Russian import routes via the Balkans are also possible. With the opposition surging ahead of next April’s election, there’s a lot on the line for Orbán. Will Trump give his mate a favor, or put his foot down?
Will Nigerien uranium reach Russia?
French officials believe Russian nuclear giant Rosatom struck a $170-million deal with the ruling military junta in Niger to purchase 1,000 tons of uranium from a mine formerly run by a French firm. The reported deal is the latest sign of Russia’s growing influence in the region, at the expense of the former colonial power, France. The greater concern with this purchase, though, could be that the uranium will have to pass through areas of Burkina Faso that are controlled by jihadist groups. Islamist militants are gaining momentum in West Africa – they have the Malian capital surrounded – sparking concern among governments in the region.
Israel attacks southern Lebanon
Israel temporarily breached its ceasefire deal with Lebanon on Thursday, issuing evacuation orders before bombing buildings in southern Lebanon it claimed were a part of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure. One person was killed and three were injured, per media reports. The Israeli military said the strikes were due to Hezbollah rebuilding its military capabilities, despite the Lebanese government agreeing to disarm the group. Fears are rising in Lebanon that Israel may resume major airstrikes if Hezbollah doesn’t give up its weapons soon, but Lebanon's government worries about inflaming local tensions if they push Hezbollah too aggressively.
What We’re Watching: Milei sticks to his guns, Putin gets ready to test, Central Asia comes to Washington
Argentina's President Javier Milei gestures after the La Libertad Avanza party won the midterm election, which is seen as crucial for Milei's administration after US President Donald Trump warned that future support for Argentina would depend on Milei's party performing well in the vote, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on October 26, 2025.
Argentina’s Milei says no float just yet
Argentine President Javier Milei says he still won’t float the peso freely, signaling he’ll continue to spend his country’s central bank reserves to artificially manage the exchange rate until the 2027 presidential election. Why is that a big deal? Just last month, ahead of the midterm elections, Milei got $2 billion from the United States – as well as a $20 billion credit line – to shore up dwindling reserves. Keeping the currency strong is part of his broader effort to bring down inflation, which includes taking a chainsaw to government spending. But investors expected that after the midterms – which he won handily – he’d move in a more market- friendly direction, letting the peso float. So much for that. If the policy puts reserves in danger again, will the self-styled “anarcho-capitalist” president get another bailout from Tío Sam?
Putin signals he’s ready to match any new US nuclear tests
Just days after US President Donald Trump announced that the Pentagon would resume nuclear testing – without going into some key details – Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled he is ready to do the same, asking members of his security council yesterday for proposals. Neither country has tested a nuclear warhead in decades, although both still test and maintain delivery systems such as rockets and missiles. A return to actual warhead testing could provoke a dangerous new arms race at a time when arms control agreements are already withering fast. For more, see our recent report here.
The ‘stans come to stan Trump
The leaders of the five Central Asian republics – can you name them? – will meet with Trump at the White House today. Russia has long dominated the resource-rich former-Soviet region, but China has made significant commercial inroads in recent years. Trump is seeking greater US access to critical minerals and other resources there, while the Central Asians – wary of both Russian intentions and China’s heft – are keen to diversify their economic and security ties. (Btw, the five are: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Did you get ‘em all?)
What We’re Watching: Some Americans head to the polls, German U-turn on Syrian asylum policy, Russia may have to find new oil buyers
Democratic candidate for New York City mayor, Zohran Mamdani, votes in the New York City mayoral election at a polling site at the Frank Sinatra School of the Arts High School in Astoria, Queens borough of New York City, USA, on November 4, 2025.
It’s Election Day in the United States
It’s the first Tuesday after Nov. 1, which means it’s US election day. Key ballots to watch include the mayoral race in New York City – where democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is poised to pull off an upset that will echo into national level politics – as well as state Supreme Court races in Pennsylvania, and ballot initiatives on gerrymandering in California. Don’t forget about the New Jersey governor election either, where GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli is looking to eke out a victory against Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill. New Jersey was once reliably blue but has been getting more purple in recent years: in 2020 Joe Biden won it by 17 points, but Donald Trump lost by just four last year.
Germany to end asylum for Syrians
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says Syrians no longer have grounds for political asylum in his country now that the Syrian civil war is over. Merz called for a repatriation program to ease burdens on Germany and accelerate the rebuilding of Syria, though the United Nations warns Syria still isn’t ready to absorb a large population of returnees. It was exactly ten years ago that Chancellor Angela Merkel declared “Wir schaffen das” (we can do it), establishing a generous asylum policy that welcomed in more than a million Syrians fleeing their country’s horrific civil war. A decade later, with the war over and the far right surging on anti-immigrant backlash, Merz is now saying, “Wir schaffen das nicht.”
Is India buying less Russian oil?
Last month, Trump announced sanctions on Russia’s top two oil companies, in a bid to squeeze the Kremlin’s war effort by scaring off major crude buyers like India and China. Is it working? Preliminary data show India’s imports of Russian oil actually increased slightly in October compared to September. But wait, there’s more: India’s purchases in the second half of October plummeted compared to the first half. That may have something to do with the fact that Trump announced the sanctions on Oct. 23. They don’t take effect until later this month, so we’ll be watching to see what the November data tell us. With Chinese firms now also reportedly exploring alternative sources of oil, Russia may in fact start feeling the effects of US sanctions (for more on this, and whether it would change his approach to Ukraine, read here).
What We’re Watching: Trump threatens Nigeria, Jihadis surround Mali’s capital, Latin Americans back US-led regime change in Venezuela
Farmers proceed to their fields for cultivation under Nigerian Army escort while departing Dikwa town in Borno State, Nigeria, on August 27, 2025. Despite the threat of insurgent attacks, farmers in Borno are gradually returning to their farmlands under military escort, often spending limited time on cultivation.
Trump threatens hit on Nigeria over plight of Christians
US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened military action against Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, over the government’s alleged failure to protect Christian communities, who make up nearly half of the country’s 231 million people. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu rejected the claims, which echo a growing concern about anti-Christian violence among the American right, though his adviser said he’d “welcome US assistance” in combating jihadist insurgencies such as ISWAP, which have targeted Christian communities. In addition, there has been a surge in sectarian violence in Nigeria this year, a result of intensifying competition for land and resources between farmers, who are typically Christian, and herders, who are mostly Muslim.
Mali on verge of succumbing to jihadis
Meanwhile, in nearby Mali, jihadis have surrounded and blockaded the capital of Bamako, starving the city’s four million residents of fuel. The militants are now on the cusp of taking power from the Russian-backed military junta there. This is the latest twist in a 13-year long conflict that has featured three military coups, a French invasion, a Russian intervention, a French withdrawal, and a notorious jihadi leader nicknamed “One-Eyed Nelson.” The rise of an ultraconservative jihadist caliphate would subject Mali’s people – especially its women – to immense hardship, while also threatening to create a fresh refugee crisis that could ripple towards Europe. It would also mark a fresh setback for Russia, and could boost jihadist groups that have sprouted in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
Split-screen on regime change in Venezuela
Nearly half of Americans oppose US-led regime change in Venezuela, and just 18% support it, a YouGov poll says. But people in the region see things differently, according to a multi-country Bloomberg study that shows 53% of respondents want Tío Sam to knock out Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Mexico is the only country where opposition surpasses support for the idea. Within Venezuela? A plurality said they “don’t know.” The US has recently been striking boats it says belong to drug traffickers tied to the Venezuelan regime. But with more US warships in the region than at any time since the 1989-1990 invasion of Panamá, many are wondering if Maduro’s regime itself is the eventual target. (For more on what that could look like, see here.)