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Russia/Ukraine
It's been two years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, and the war is still raging. GZERO looks back at the pivotal moments of the past 24 months.
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Feb. 24, 2022: Russia launches “special military operation” in Ukraine
On Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launches a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, labeling it a "special military operation." The aim? The "demilitarization and denazification" of Ukraine, according to Putin, who warns of inevitable clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Any bloodshed, he says, would be on Ukraine’s hands.
- Ian Bremmer: This is a turning point in the global order
- Russia-Ukraine crisis: What you need to know
Feb. 28, 2022: The ruble nosedives
Days after Russian troops invade eastern Ukraine, the country's currency plummets, shedding up to 30% of its value against the US dollar. This drastic decline follows allied sanctions, specifically targeting Russia’s central bank and major lenders. Such a sharp depreciation of the ruble has occurred only twice before: during the 1998 Russian financial crisis and again in late 2014.
March 2022: Putin = Common denominator
Putin Past the Point of No Return | Putin's Europe Problem | GZERO World with Ian Bremmerhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer/putins-europe-problem
While NATO forces aren't directly engaged, the US and its allies support Ukraine through arms, financial aid, and stringent sanctions against Moscow. Vladimir Putin's approach, reminiscent of past-century warfare, falters in the modern era of global PR and social media dominance. The repercussions extend far beyond Ukraine, capturing the attention of countries like Finland, transitioning from neutrality to NATO hopeful. Former Finland PM Alexander Stubb, reflecting on Putin's stance and China's hesitance to fully support Russia, highlights the evolving geopolitical dynamics. On this award-winning episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer talks to Stubb, who once helped broker Russia's 2008 cease-fire with Georgia and believes Putin has backed himself into a corner but won't back down on Ukraine.
- Putin only understands power and force, says Finland’s former PM
- Civilians gear up: “This is not a suicide mission” – the Wolverines of Ukraine
April 2022: Russia retreats from Kyiv, Bucha massacre uncovered
Is Putin's war in Ukraine genocide?https://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/is-putin-s-war-in-ukraine-genocide
As Ukrainian forces retake Kyiv and Russian troops begin retreating to eastern and southern Ukraine, gruesome images surface from Bucha, a Kyiv suburb, revealing that civilians – women, children, and elderly – lay dead in the streets. Ukrainian officials and independent sources share horrific accounts of rape, torture, and execution by Russian soldiers, and hundreds of victims are found in mass graves. Russia denies responsibility and instead points fingers at Ukraine.
- Is Putin's war in Ukraine a genocide?
- The price of Russian defeat
- Zelensky wants justice over Russian war crimes
- Russian military on the ropes
June 2022: Russia withdraws from Snake Island
Russia retreats from Snake Island, with the Kremlin calling it a "gesture of goodwill" to disprove the hindrance of Ukrainian food exports, but Ukrainians credit their missile strikes. The blockade disrupted Ukraine's monthly grain exports of five million metric tons, spiking global food prices and sparking famine fears in Africa. Zmiinyi Island, 22 miles off Ukraine's coast, offers strategic advantages, but its capture hindered Kyiv's defense of the southwestern coast and Odesa port. While a Ukrainian victory, naval weakness hampers food export resumption, underscoring Kremlin's Donbas focus.
August 2022: Fighting around Zaporizhzhia power plant raises fears
Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant in Peril | US Energy Secretary Granholm | GZERO Worldhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-world-clips/us-en...
Artillery duels erupt at Europe’s largest nuclear power station in Zaporizhzhia, southern Ukraine, now under Russian occupation. Both sides accuse the other of instigating the conflict. The IAEA raises concerns over the potential for a nuclear catastrophe, as shelling severely damages radiation sensors near a spent fuel storage unit. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemns the situation as “Russian nuclear terror.”
Sept. 11, 2022: Ukraine pushes back, reclaims over a thousand square miles
On the 200th day of the war, the Ukrainian military achieves its most significant gains against Russia since the invasion began. President Volodymyr Zelensky declares the liberation of over 1,000 kilometers of territory, pledging to "de-occupy" completely.
Sept. 21, 2022: Russia calls up reservists
Russia calls up reservistshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/what-we-re-watching-iran-protests-spread-putin-mobilizes-ny-sues-trumps-china-faces-slow-growth
Vladimir Putin dramatically ups the ante and orders the partial mobilization of up to 300,000 reservists for the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian defiance persists, with Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden, reaffirming their commitment to pressure Putin's government and military. Meanwhile, Russia grapples with internal unrest, evident in protests and a surge of draft-age men fleeing the country. While Putin stops short of full mobilization, ongoing setbacks in the "special military operation" raise concerns about future escalations.
- The script for conscripts: Inside Putin’s (partial) mobilization
- QuickTake with Ian Bremmer: Putin cornered
- António Guterres: Ukraine war united NATO but further divided the world
Sept. 26, 2022: Who blew up Nord Stream?
Who blew up Nord Stream? Ian Bremmer
The controversial Nord Stream gas pipelines connecting Russia to Germany and Europe are sabotaged, leading to multiple investigations into whodunnit.
- Did someone blow up the Nord Stream pipelines?
- Another Baltic pipeline whodunnit
- Who blew up Nord Stream?
September 2022: Russia holds referenda in occupied parts of eastern Ukraine
Russian annexationshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/what-we-re-watching-russian-annexations-the-india-pakistan-us-tango
Putin’s sham referenda in four regions of Ukraine officially moves forward to annexations. Yet, with ongoing clashes, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson remain battlegrounds. Securing control amid Ukrainian resistance could provide Putin with a strategic land bridge from southeastern Ukraine to Crimea, annexed in 2014. While Russia holds Luhansk and Kherson, and portions of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, Ukrainian forces persist in gaining ground. The referenda offer Putin a pretext, framing Ukrainian/Western attacks as assaults on Russia. Amid a faltering war, Putin terms it an "anti-colonial movement." In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seeks accelerated NATO accession.
Oct. 8, 2022: Kerch Bridge blast
Russia launches a series of airstrikes targeting major Ukrainian cities: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and even Lviv, previously deemed a haven. The attacks, hitting civilian areas during rush hour, inflict considerable damage to infrastructure, causing power outages and driving civilians into bomb shelters. While the death toll remains unconfirmed, casualties are expected to be substantial. This military escalation follows Saturday's explosion on the Crimea-Russia Kerch bridge, which Putin attributes to Ukrainian "terrorists." The strikes were ordered before Putin's National Security Council meeting, suggesting retaliation planning. Though the Kremlin has yet to comment officially, Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov expresses satisfaction, advocating for reprisals against Ukrainian infrastructure.
- Putin lashes out after Crimea bridge blast
- Russian revenge vs. Ukrainian resolve
- Following Ukraine’s Crimea bridge attack, expect Putin to escalate "until he collapses"
January 2023: US and Germany offer tanks
Ukraine tanks uphttps://www.gzeromedia.com/ukraine-tanks-up
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces Germany's decision to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, following pressure from NATO countries led by Poland. Berlin initially resisted, concerned about antagonizing Russia and awaiting US action on supplying Abrams tanks. Two tank battalions, totaling roughly 80 Leopard 2 tanks, will be deployed to Ukraine, with training for Ukrainian soldiers commencing in Germany. However, US tank shipments may not arrive until spring, as the Ukrainian military lacks Abrams operation knowledge and maintenance supply lines and faces fuel consumption concerns.
- Ukraine tanks up
- Ukraine's killer dune buggies
- Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant at risk of disaster, says top nuclear watchdog
- Putin’s war crimes solidify West’s military support for Ukraine
- Russian unpredictability & Finland's border threat
February 2023: Biden visits Kyiv
Biden’s visit to Ukraine signals US commitment, but war gets tougher | Quick Take | GZERO Mediahttps://www.gzeromedia.com/quick-take/biden-visit-to-ukraine-signals-us-commitment-but-war-gets-tougher
President Biden makes a surprise trip to Kyiv, just before the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. It's significant as the first visit by an American president since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and intervention in Southeast Ukraine. This underscores continued US commitment symbolically, boosts Ukrainian morale, and reassures NATO of America's unwavering prioritization of Ukraine, despite substantial aid and a year of conflict. The trip holds immense importance for diplomatic relations, emphasizing the enduring support for Ukraine amidst ongoing tensions with Russia.
June 8, 2023: Ukraine launches counteroffensive
Ukraine ups the antehttps://www.gzeromedia.com/ukraine-ups-the-ante
The New York Times reports that Ukraine's nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is ramping up in the southeast, per two anonymous Pentagon officials. Thousands of previously held-back reserves are now deploying to the front lines. Both Ukrainian and Russian reports corroborate this escalation. Whether Ukraine gains strategic ground or not marks a pivotal juncture in the war.
June 24, 2023: Prigozhin stages mutiny
Russia’s aborted coup, explainedhttps://www.gzeromedia.com/by-ian-bremmer/russias-aborted-coup-explained
Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin stages a failed mutiny against Vladimir Putin. Ian Bremmer predicts the move will be the beginning of the end of Prigozhin. According to Bremmer, Prigozhin, in the lead-up to his mutiny, had become increasingly erratic, indicative of his declining political influence. What's more, he directed fury at Russia’s Ministry of Defense, accusing them of sending thousands of soldiers to their deaths due to corruption, incompetence, and cowardice.
- Russia’s aborted coup, explained
- Former Russian intelligence officer: Prigozhin's threat to Putin is “ludicrous”
July 2023: Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grain Deal
Russia's exit from Black Sea grain deal will drive up food prices | Europe In: 60https://www.gzeromedia.com/in-60-seconds/europe/russias-exit-from-black-sea-grain-deal-will-drive-up-food-prices
Russia announces its exit from the Black Sea grain deal, a move GZERO's Europe In :60 host and former Sweden PM Carl Bildt predicts would have severe consequences on global food prices. Continuous attacks on grain terminals near the Ukrainian-Romanian border aggravate the situation. Meanwhile, the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive slows down due to extensive Russian fortifications and mines. The Ukrainian army, largely composed of mobilized individuals with limited training, faces significant challenges.
Aug. 23, 2023: Prigozhin dies in plane crash
Wagner's Prigozhin dieshttps://www.gzeromedia.com/wagners-prigozhin-presu...
Russian state media reports a private aircraft crash outside Moscow, killing all 10 aboard, including Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group warlord behind a failed mutiny against the Kremlin in June.
September 2023: Peace in Ukraine is world's priority, says UN chief António Guterres
November 2023: US govt avoids shutdown, cuts Ukraine funding
Shutdown averted, but deal contains no aid for Ukrainehttps://www.gzeromedia.com/gzero-north/shutdown-averted-but-deal-contains-no-aid-for-ukraine
Ukraine's funding struggle continues as a divided US House finally reached an agreement to avoid a government shutdown but notably did not include military aid for either Ukraine or Israel. Democrats had tried to lump aid for Israel - which received bipartisan support - together with that of Ukraine, which faced resistance from Republicans. The decision is a significant blow to Ukraine, whose somewhat successful resistance against the Russian offensive relied heavily on US funding. What's more, their hopes of getting assistance from the EU face threats from Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—an ally of Vladimir Putin.
February 2024: Russia recaptures Avdiivka
Pro-Russia blogger commits suicide, Russia recaptures Avdiivkahttps://www.gzeromedia.com/news/hard-numbers/hard-numbers-pro-russia-blogger-commits-suicide-uk-nuclear-missile-test-fails-biden-slashes-student-debt-iran-gives-russia-missiles
In mid-February 2024, Russian forces in Ukraine scored their first major victory in months, taking the strategic town of Avdiivka. A pro-Russian blogger who reported that 16,000 Russian troops had died in the effort faced a huge backlash and committed suicide.
- What Ukraine needs after two years of war with Russia - GZERO Media ›
- What's the plan for Ukraine after two years of war? Ian Bremmer explains - GZERO Media ›
- Ukraine is still standing two years after Russian invasion - GZERO Media ›
- Two years of war in Ukraine: Power players at the Munich Security Conference weigh in - GZERO Media ›
- Greece's PM on NATO, Navalny, and the wake-up call to Europe - GZERO Media ›
- A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari - GZERO Media ›
- Moscow terror attack: What happens next? - GZERO Media ›
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take for the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I don'tknow what you give on a second anniversary, but I know what Ukraine wants. It's ammo, it's more weapons. It is an environment where they have lost their first city, more of a large town to the Russians since last May.
And the reason for that, it's not that Ukrainians aren't willing to fight. It's not a lack of courage. It's not even a lack of troops. It's a lack of support from the United States and Europe. Yes, from the United States and Europe. The United States, which is the largest military power in the world for now, does not have approval from Congress to continue sending military support to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Europeans are not digging deep. They do have more ammunition to send. But right now that's going to other countries around the world. They have contracts with like the UAE and their willingness to prioritize Ukraine over those contracts because of a national emergency. They'd rather make the money. Look, I understand all of that, but at the end of the day, the Ukrainians are the ones that are taking it on the chin.
And this is a real challenge for the future of the war and the future of NATO. Two years later, NATO is already feeling much more stressed than it was in the immediate aftermath of the war. You'll remember that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke of a Zeitenwende, a turning point where Germany would have to spend more on their national defense and would have to culturally get over their unwillingness to provide weapons for other countries to ensure that Ukraine could defend itself. We saw that from France. We saw it first and foremost from the front line countries like the Baltic states. Tiny but hitting much above their weight. The Poles, of course, not only sending enormous amounts of weapons, but also helping to train Ukrainian soldiers and hosting, even in their homes, millions of Ukrainians refugees that were fleeing from the country, fleeing from the Russian invasion.
Despite all of this, the war has changed its tempo. It's changed its trajectory. Right now. The Ukrainians are on defense. The Russians are taking somewhat slightly more territory, but they're also continuing to engage in missile strikes deep into Ukrainian territory. And we just found out that the first level of advanced weapons, missiles from Iran now being sent to Russia in addition to thousands of railway containers of ammunition and short range missiles from North Korea. This is not an axis of resistance, much closer to an axis of evil. Three chaos actors working together in military alliance to help ensure that there is more instability, more volatility in the world, and that the West is under more pressure. And that is a significant problem for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Two years on the ability of Ukraine to retake all of their territory seems a pipe dream.
It's almost inconceivable that they are not going to be partitioned and no one's going to accept that in the West, certainly not Ukraine, not the United States, at least not under the Biden administration and not any of the frontline NATO countries. And yet the Ukrainians will have no ability to retake that land. What does that mean? Can Ukraine still win?
Well, it depends on what you mean in defining victory. I can see Ukraine having strong security guarantees from the United States, the United Kingdom, Poland, maybe some others that could prevent the Russians from taking more Ukrainian territory, prevent them from being able to overthrow Ukraine. I can imagine large amounts of money, especially from Europe, which has done the lion's share of the economic support from Ukraine even more than the United States has, though not many people talk about that over the last two years to help ensure that Ukraine will be able to reconstruct its economy, its infrastructure, its system.
And I can also see Ukraine being able to join the European Union over the long term, which allows them to have economic and political reforms that will improve the lives of the average Ukrainian. That is a win for Ukraine in the sense that it would afford the vast majority of Ukrainians a much better life and future than they would have had before the Russian invasion in 22 or before the Russian invasion in 2014. But there are no guarantees. And absent significant and committed support ongoing from the Americans and Europeans to ensure that future, the potential that the Ukrainians will be overthrown, they'll lose more of their territory and that the country will fall apart, becomes greater. And that certainly would feel like a Russian victory in Ukraine. It's not a Russian victory globally because of course in that environment Russia would still have the majority of its assets, hundreds of billions of dollars externally frozen. The Russians would have massive sanctions from the West and they wouldn't be able to do business with them going forward. That means particularly stranded gas because they don't have the infrastructure to pipe it anywhere else. It means that Russia is seen as a rogue state whose principal allies are countries like Iran and North Korea, not the friends that you really want to have on the international stage.
That's embarrassing for them. It's also a loss. It's a loss because NATO has expanded Finland and soon Sweden, which is ostensibly why the Russians wanted to invade Ukraine in the beginning because they didn't want more of a NATO's threat against them. And now they have much more that they have to defend against. Who do we blame for all of this?
Of course we blame Putin. But you know what? I also blame NATO. I do think that NATO's is responsible in significant part for the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. You know why? Because when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, when they illegally annexed Crimea and when they illegally sent their little green men who we all knew were really Russian soldiers and occupied illegally, parts of southeast Ukraine, the West did virtually nothing. NATO did virtually nothing. The view was, “hey, these guys aren't a part of NATO. We're not responsible.” In fact, not only were sanctions very limited, but the Europeans sent heads of state to go and congratulate Putin for the World Cup that he was hosting at the very moment that the Russians were occupying illegally parts of Ukraine. This war has been going on for ten years and NATO has been unconcerned until the Russians finally decided in 2022, “Hey, we can get away with this. The Americans, the Europeans don't really care. Look at what just happened in Afghanistan. We're going to invade the entire country. We're going to get rid of Zelensky once and for all. “ A massive misjudgment on Putin's part. But the misjudgment wasn't about NATO's response. The misjudgment was about Russia's own capabilities. And if they had been strong enough to be able to overthrow Zelensky in the two weeks that Putin thought would happen and that the Americans and Europeans did as well, we'd be in a radically different position today. No, it is only the fact that Putin is an incapable leader who is massively corrupt and doesn't get good information from his own people. And it's only because the Ukrainians fought with incredible, almost inhuman courage over the first months and now over two years that Ukraine still has a shot today. It's only because of that that NATO isn't completely at fault for Ukraine falling apart.
But unfortunately, Ukraine's future still very much hangs in the balance and that's going to require a lot more political strength and unity from the United States, from Europe, the transatlantic relationship and NATO, then we may be able to expect going forward. That's where we are two years in.
That's it for me. And I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Graphic Truth: What would Ukrainians give up for peace? ›
- Zelensky has “something serious in mind” ›
- Russia is winning? Winning what? ›
- Yes, Vladimir Putin is winning. ›
- Ukraine war sees escalation of weapons and words ›
- Russia-Ukraine: Two Years of War ›
- Ukraine is still standing two years after Russian invasion - GZERO Media ›
- A Russian victory would end the global order, says Yuval Noah Harari - GZERO Media ›
Twenty years ago this week, then-President George W. Bush welcomed seven former communist countries into NATO: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
This marked the largest expansion of NATO to date and it pushed the alliance further eastward to Russia’s doorstep, laying the rhetorical groundwork for one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s many justifications for invading Ukraine in 2022.
In the lead up to the invasion, Putin said Russia was “swindled” by the alliance, claiming Moscow was "given promises not to move NATO infrastructure to the East, not a single inch." Contrary to Putin’s claims, there was never a formal agreement to this effect and experts say the Russian leader has distorted history with such assertions.
But this hasn’t stopped Putin from repeatedly accusing NATO of betrayal over the years. And NATO expansion has been at the heart of Putin’s aggressive behavior toward Russia’s neighbors. Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia came just months after NATO welcomed Georgia and Ukraine’s aspirations of joining the alliance. Before it launched a full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia sought guarantees that Ukraine and Georgia would never be accepted into NATO — a demand the alliance rejected.
But Ukraine and Georgia joining the alliance’s ranks remains an unlikely prospect as long as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. Still, with NATO on the verge of celebrating its 75th anniversary next week, the alliance is the strongest it’s been in years. NATO in the past year added two new members — Finland and Sweden — thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin hoped to deter NATO expansion by invading Ukraine, but achieved the exact opposite.
French President Emmanuel Macron has been on quite the journey over the past two years.
In the days leading up to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fateful decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022, Macron took on the role of chief peacemaker in a bid to avert conflict. Once the war began, he cautioned against Russia’s humiliation, offered Putin countless off-ramps, and pressed Ukraine to engage in peace talks. Fast forward to today, though, and Macron has become arguably the transatlantic alliance’s leading Russia hawk, even going as far as openly discussing the prospect of deploying French troops to Ukraine’s front lines.
What caused such a remarkable transformation? French officials close to the president claim that as the facts on the ground changed, so did Macron's strategic thinking. But as my Eurasia Group colleague Mujtaba Rahman teased last week, that explanation doesn’t fully hold up. Let’s see why.
Macron's shuttle diplomacy began with the widely publicized “long-table talks” in Moscow on Feb. 7, 2022, when Putin agreed to refrain from invading Ukraine in exchange for “security guarantees.” Then, on Feb. 20, the two leaders spoke on the phone, and Macron went to sleep believing he had convinced Putin to consider peace talks with US President Joe Biden. The rest is history: Putin reneged on both promises, and on Feb. 24, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Macron’s critics dismiss those early talks as futile, arguing the president was never in a position to deter a Putin hellbent on achieving his imperial dreams (fact check: true).
Macron’s thinking, however, was – and still is – that engagement was justified despite having little chance of success. Otherwise, the Kremlin could have claimed that the West was uninterested in diplomacy and had left it with no choice but war. Trying was valuable insofar as it allowed the West to retain the moral and narrative high ground … whatever that turned out to be worth.
A few months later, in May, Macron gave a speech at the European Parliament where he called on the West not to “humiliate” Russia. This was no slip of the tongue; he reiterated the position a month later in an interview with the French media when he said that helping Putin save face was necessary “so that the day when the fighting stops we can build an exit ramp through diplomatic means.”
The statements drew ire from Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic States, outraged by calls to give in to an invader that was mercilessly shelling civilians amid then-fresh revelations of war crimes in Bucha and elsewhere.
What was Macron thinking then? At the time, the French leader believed that Russia was going to lose the war – even if at that particular moment it was winning the battle. He was under the impression that Putin knew this and was accordingly open to diplomacy. The hope was that by keeping him onside, Macron could eventually broker a peace deal that would both preserve Kyiv’s interests and pave the way for a new, more “strategic” European security architecture – one where Europe would finally take its future into its own hands and be less dependent militarily on the United States.
But that illusion would not last long.
In the weeks that followed, a series of phone calls with Putin led Macron to the realization that the Russian president had been making a fool out of him all along, hardening the president’s attitude toward Moscow. It was a rude awakening, but the facts didn’t change on him – Macron just caught up to them.
As this reality dawned, Macron’s strategic focus shifted to Eastern European countries, whose support he realized was key to keeping his dream of a “strategic Europe” alive. The problem was that France had historically had tepid relations with this part of the world, starting with Paris’ reluctance to embrace eastern enlargement after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. Macron’s direct diplomacy with Putin in 2022 had only made things worse. Ties needed mending, and these countries needed convincing that the European Union could replace the United States as the guarantor of European security – especially in light of Germany’s increasingly apparent geopolitical timidity and the growing odds of a Trump 2.0 pullback from NATO scenario.
So Macron went to work. At the GLOBSEC security conference in Bratislava in June 2023, the French president called for Russia's outright “defeat” for the first time, after previously speaking only of “preventing a Russian victory.” He also apologized to Eastern European countries for “missing an opportunity” to heed their concerns about Russia’s imperial ambitions, pleaded for a European defense pillar within NATO in the face of Washington’s wavering commitment to the transatlantic alliance, and – crucially – opened the door to possible Ukrainian NATO membership.
The Bratislava remarks were made at a time when the West was cautiously optimistic that Ukraine could reprise the success of its 2022 counteroffensive. The military and political outlook has since darkened for Kyiv. And Macron has grown anxious that – far from bolstering European security, unity, and democracy – the war may end in a Russian victory, which would discredit the European Union and destroy its economy. This concern is what prompted the president to publicly weigh the possibility of deploying French and other NATO troops to Ukraine for the first time in late February, when he replied to a journalist’s question about potential Western troop deployments by saying that “nothing should be ruled out” because “Russia cannot [be allowed] to win this war.”
While French ministers have claimed that he was referring only to support troops and not frontline fighters, Macron has refused to accept that distinction. Indeed, despite earning strong rebukes from the US, Germany, and the United Kingdom, he doubled down recently when he said he would not “initiate” such an escalation but it might become necessary.
So what is Macron trying to achieve now? The first-order reasoning is that he wants to create “strategic ambiguity” – in other words, keep Putin guessing about his intentions to deter further aggression and persuade him to back off Ukraine. But the president also wants to prepare French and Western public opinion for the difficult decisions that may lie ahead in the event that such deterrence fails.
Beyond strategic considerations, there is the question of what role Macron’s ambitions have played in his rhetorical escalation. The French president is often accused of wanting to seize the “leadership” of the European Union, but with just three years remaining in office, he is probably thinking more about legacy than leadership now. And Macron's legacy stakes are certainly high. In 2017, he promised to leave France and the EU stronger than he found them. Seven years later, he faces the rising tides of far-right nationalism and the possibility that a Russian victory in Ukraine could destroy the credibility of the union.
Macron realizes that his ambition of a more “strategic Europe” is a long-term project requiring strong backing from the United Kingdom and Germany. But he is also aware that Berlin is unwilling to face up to this new geostrategic landscape in which cheap Russian gas and unconditional US protection are no longer guaranteed. He is therefore hoping that his “boots on the ground” rhetoric can force Europe to confront existential questions about the continent’s security destiny that leaders like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz would prefer to avoid.
Whether his new position ultimately helps or hurts Ukraine remains to be seen. It’s also unclear whether the French leader will finally put his money where his mouth is. After all, France has been a laggard when it comes to arming Ukraine. But one thing is for sure – the Russia dove of 2022 is now one of the West’s most implacable hawks. Putin no longer has an open line to Emmanuel Macron.
Harvard Kennedy School’s Stephen Walt suggests that there’s not as much daylight between Biden and Trump as people might think when it comes to US policy towards Ukraine.
As with Trump, Walt argues, “Biden would also be trying to end this war sooner rather than later.” But where Biden would be looking to support Ukraine in securing the best possible deal in a peace arrangement, Trump might abandon Ukraine, forcing them to rely more on European support for security.
"Trump is fundamentally a nationalist and unilateralist” Walt tells Bremmer in a wide-ranging interview, “…whereas Biden is very much a globalist or internationalist."
Watch full episode here: How the US election will change the world
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Russia started supplying oil to North Korea this month in violation of UN sanctions on Pyongyang, according to a new report from a UK think tank and theFinancial Times. Satellite images have shown a number of North Korean tankers traveling to the Russian eastern port city of Vostochny in March.
In 2017, the UN Security Council voted, with Russian support, to sanction the DPRK following a series of nuclear weapons tests. Last August, North Korea began sending large quantities of munitions to Russia to support its invasion of Ukraine.
This is just the latest evidence of new security tensions in East Asia. Earlier this week, we noted the US and Japan will announce a major upgrade in their military relations next month. In response, Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Ki Jong Un, has rebuffed Japan’s call for a high-level bilateral meeting after initially indicating Pyongyang was open to it. “The DPRK side will pay no attention to and reject any contact and negotiations with the Japanese side,” she told North Korean state media.
Japan’s government is also becoming more militarily assertive. Tokyo pledged to double its defense spending by 2027 in response to perceived threats from China and North Korea, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet announced this week that Japan will sell new fighter jets it’s developing with the UK and Italy to countries not directly involved in an ongoing conflict with which it has signed defense pacts.
Kishida will make a highly anticipated trip to Washington next month, and we’ll be watching to see how China, Russia, and North Korea react.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will the US-Israel relationship be affected by the US backing a Gaza cease-fire resolution at the UN?
Well, it was high drama yesterday when Prime Minister Netanyahu said he was going to immediately suspend an Israeli delegation that was going to visit the United States on the back of that decision.Very unhappy that the Americans decided to allow it to go ahead and abstain as opposed to by themselves vetoing. And keep in mind that all every other permanent and nonpermanent member of the Security Council has voted in favor. A lot of US allies there. And you know, that would seem to be a big deal, except Yoav Gallant, Minister of Defense, still stayed in the United States and had a series of very productive and high level meetings with his counterparts in the US. And there are still negotiations proceeding that are constructive between the US and Israel and Qatar to engage with Hamas and try to get a temporary cease-fire done and a bunch of hostages released also called for immediate release by the UN Security Council resolution. So I think there's a lot more drama here than there is actual impact on the US-Israel relationship. And certainly a lot of pressure that continues to mount on a very unpopular Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at home.
Will there be international consequences from the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse in Baltimore?
I mean, it wasn't terrorism. It was an accident, though. I mean, I guess if this was Russia, they'd say the Ukrainians were responsible for it. It is a major port on the Eastern seaboard that looks like it is going to be a real problem to get in and out of. And that means supply chain challenges, especially in terms of cars, millions of which go through Baltimore every year. But, you know, the United States has an economy that's doing quite well. A growth is significant, but not over whelming. And otherwise supply chain is working around the United States for imports. So I suspect that if there's an economic cost here, it's going to be relatively small and short lived.
What message is Russia sending by their public display of torture against accused terrorists?
Well, they're showing that they have a complete indifference to the well-being of any human being. They're also, of course, displaying that the Russian state will go after you with its full force if you are seen to be an enemy of theirs. That is true in terms of the way they treat opposition journalists and politicians. But it's also true in the way they treat suspected terrorists. And they, of course, have forced confessions. I suspect they do have strong evidence, given what we've seen of that over the last few days. But still, I mean, in a system of rule of law, you are innocent until proven guilty in Russia. Of course you are guilty when the government says you are guilty, in particular, when the absolute leader says you're guilty and then you no longer have rights and the state can do with you as they will. We saw that with Mr. Prigozhin, We saw that with Mr. Navalny. And now we're seeing that with four suspected and likely but not yet proven terrorists.