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Russia/Ukraine
President Trump wants the war over regardless of the consequences for Ukraine or Europe. That means applying pressure to the weaker party, and with Kyiv rocked by a major corruption scandal and the fall of chief of staff Andriy Yermak, Ukraine is now more vulnerable diplomatically.
Russia knows this. Rather than proposing terms Ukraine might accept, Putin is putting forward maximalist demands designed to look like engagement while ensuring rejection, hoping Trump’s team will blame Kyiv and peel Europeans away.
With Europe now providing almost all financial support to Ukraine, divisions between Washington and key NATO allies make a meaningful agreement even less likely. “The war continues, people die, and Ukraine’s final position could be worse,” Ian warns.
A small silver lining: Jared Kushner has joined the negotiations and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is asserting more independence. But for now, Ian says, the prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is not heading in a positive direction.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky inspects a guard of honor by the Irish Army at Government Buildings during an Irish State visit, in Dublin, Ireland, on December 2, 2025.
It hasn’t been an easy year for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – and not just because Russia is still invading his country.
US President Donald Trump’s return to office heralded a sharp slowdown in new White House spending on Ukraine – it has dropped to virtually zero this year. Europe has made up for some of the shortfall, but is now struggling to find new funds for the war effort. Further, the US recently authored a plan that would force Ukraine to relinquish sizable parts of its territory.
Now, a corruption scandal is engulfing the Ukrainian leader, forcing his top aide, Andriy Yermak, to resign. Yermak was officially Zelensky’s chief of staff, but reportedly held a far greater role – he was also the vice president, lead negotiator, and held vast powers on economic and security matters. His exit will thus leave a major void in Zelensky’s government.
What this means for peace negotiations. The Trump administration believes that the corruption scandal will make Zelensky more willing to accept a peace agreement – even one that includes measures that have been red lines for Kyiv. Trump has been publicly pressuring the Ukrainian leader, dishing out another ultimatum for accepting a deal that involves giving up land in exchange for security guarantees.
The message seemed to fall on amenable ears: Zelensky told his countrymen on Nov. 21 that he must either accept a deal or lose the US as an ally. Washington and Kyiv reportedly made a little more progress during talks in Miami over the weekend.
Not so fast. There’s just one problem with the White House’s belief that it can pressure Zelensky into accepting a deal: Ukrainian soldiers don’t support the US peace plan, and Ukrainians at large increasingly believe that Washington is trying to force Kyiv to accept an unfair peace deal, according to polling from the Kyiv International Institute of Technology. If Zelensky accepts a bad deal, it might further harm his domestic standing.
“Zelensky’s political problems arguably make it even harder for him to make any major concessions to secure a cease-fire,” said Eurasia Group’s Eastern Europe expert Alex Brideau. “While the public wants negotiations and an end to the war, it does not support a deal that meets Russian demands on territory and neutrality.”
What does Zelensky want? He is focused on “obtaining security guarantees from Western partners that would protect the country from any future Russian invasion,” said Brideau. The US has offered this to Ukraine, but with the caveat that they must hand land to Russia that the Kremlin hasn’t yet taken – something the comedian-turned-wartime leader isn’t ready to do.
As such, Zelensky on Monday turned to a more sympathetic ally for support: Europe. The continent has been Ukraine’s principal supporter this year, and was quietly aghast at the 28-point peace proposal that the US released last month. After meeting with Ukraine’s leader in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated that it was up to Kyiv whether it chooses to cede territory.
Not rushing yet. Zelensky wants to make a deal “as quickly as he can,” per Brideau. The Ukrainian leader even said that “now more than ever, there is a chance to end this war,” while visiting Ireland on Tuesday. However, he isn’t time-constrained, in large part because Ukraine refuses to hold an election during wartime – Zelensky’s five-year term technically expired 18 months ago.
“Under martial law, Ukraine cannot hold national elections,” says Brideau. “Until there is a path for a lasting cease-fire, the government will keep renewing the martial law declaration every three months.”
If there was an election, recent polling suggests that Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom Valerii Zaluzhnyi would defeat Zelensky in a hypothetical race.
The incumbent leader, though, has said that he would step down if the war ended. For all the various negotiations that have taken place between Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington, this isn’t necessarily going to happen imminently.
“A quick deal will remain elusive,” said Brideau, “given the wide gulf between Russia and Ukraine on their core demands and insufficient external pressure to force a change by one or both.”
What We’re Watching: Another glitch in Russia-Ukraine talks, UK Labour Party to raise taxes to record levels, Tensions spike in Syria’s third-largest city
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomes US envoy Steve Witkoff during a meeting in Moscow, Russia, on April 25, 2025.
Witkoff leak is only the latest glitch in Russia-Ukraine negotiations
A leaked recording of an October call between US special envoy Steve Witkoff and a senior Kremlin official is the latest drama to spill into the Ukraine peace talks. In the call, scooped by Bloomberg, Witkoff – already mistrusted by the Ukrainians – gives tips on how Russian President Vladimir Putin can soften up US President Donald Trump in negotiations. This follows the mini-drama in which US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was forced to affirm this week that the White House had “authored” an initial 28-point plan, after he reportedly told US senators that it hadn’t. Meanwhile Russia is still warning that it won’t accept a deal that strays from its red lines, while accusing Europe of “meddling” in the talks. With so much drama and division, we are keenly tuned in to see what plan, if any, emerges in the coming days.
Will the UK’s new budget right the ship?
The UK government will impose record tax hikes in order to balance the state’s finances while supporting more social spending, according to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ new budget. The tax burden will reach 38% of GDP by 2030, the highest in UK history, with the help of a de-facto income tax rise and a new tax on homes worth above £2 million. Labour supporters will cheer the increased social spending but the higher overall tax burden, even on less affluent families, could sting at the polls. Markets swung forward and back in response to the announcement, suggesting they weren’t fully convinced by Labour’s efforts to balance its books. We’re watching to see how this bold fiscal move will affect Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his flailing government.
Syria’s sectarian tensions flare again after brutal double killing
The gruesome murder of a Sunni bedouin couple in the Syrian city of Homs has stoked sectarian tensions in one of the country’s largest cities. The husband and wife were found dead in their home, with sectarian epithets scrawled at the scene. The killings set off a brief wave of reprisals against local Alawites, the sect to which the now-ousted Assad dynasty belonged. Since overthrowing the Assad regime a year ago, President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who has remade himself as a statesman, has struggled to contain sectarian violence, some of it stoked by his own men. The situation in Homs, a strategically located city that is home to Sunnis, Shia, Christians, and Alawites, is an important test case.
What We’re Watching: Russia and Ukraine negotiations continue, Trump and Xi make a springtime date, Sudan’s rebels declare unilateral ceasefire
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll attend a meeting, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, November 20, 2025.
Ukraine and Russia still worlds apart as peace talks continue
Moscow said that it would reject any ceasefire deal that doesn’t meet its core demands for more territory, the large-scale disarmament of Ukraine, and a ban on Ukrainian NATO membership. The Kremlin’s cold water comes after Ukraine was all smiles following a fresh round of ceasefire talks with the US yesterday. While the White House seems keen to strike a deal soonest, the two sides are still worlds apart on what they are willing to agree to – Washington has now abandoned its Thanksgiving “deadline” for a deal. Today, Russian and American negotiators will be meeting in the UAE to see if they can narrow the gaps between the two peace plans, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for a meeting with US President Donald Trump later this week.
Was Taiwan the subject of US-China call?
After talking on the phone Monday, Trump said he will be meeting with Xi Jinping IRL in Beijing in April and that Xi will come to the US for a state visit later in the year. While the White House said that the call had been “very positive” and mainly focused on trade, Chinese state media reported that the call had focused on Taiwan, saying Xi had communicated to Trump that returning Taiwan to return to Chinese control was “integral.” For more on the impact of the US-China rivalry, see our recent piece on how the trade war has hit the US heartland.
Sudan paramilitaries agree to one-sided ceasefire
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries on Monday announced a three month “humanitarian ceasefire” in their brutal, two-and-a-half-year long civil war with the Sudanese military. The plan was brokered by the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. Good news, maybe, but there’s a huge catch: the RSF announced the move after the army rejected it because of the involvement of the UAE, which has faced persistent accusations that it backs the RSF. The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people and driven 14 million from their homes. Both sides are accused of widespread war crimes.
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the controversy around Trump's 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan.
He says the proposal was “mostly drafted by the Russians” and loaded with “complete non-starters” for Ukraine, from ceding more territory to reducing troop levels and granting blanket amnesty for war crimes.
Ian explains that while allies publicly “appreciate the American effort,” he notes that few are buying the plan’s substance. With Europe divided and Russia sensing momentum, he warns that “the war is not close to over,” and that the next phase will likely be shaped by battlefield realities, not diplomacy.
What We’re Watching: Russia-Ukraine peace deal, Rough weekend for Brazil, Mass school abductions in Nigeria
Servicemen of the 148th Separate Artillery Zhytomyr Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire a Caesar self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops at a position on the front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the frontline town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, Ukraine November 23, 2025.
Is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal imminent?
After facing backlash that the US’s first 28-point peace deal was too friendly towards Russia, American and Ukrainian negotiators drafted a new 19-point plan on Monday. The talks nearly fell apart before they began, but both sides reported ultimately that the meeting felt “positive.” However, whether this gets Ukraine and Russia any closer to a ceasefire remains to be seen. The new draft apparently bears little resemblance to the original plan – meaning Moscow may not agree. It also does not address the most controversial issues like territorial questions and the future of NATO–Russia–US relations, leaving them for Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky to resolve before Washington’s Thursday deadline.
A rough weekend for Brazil’s Bolsonaro
On Friday, US President Donald Trump gave Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a boost – and thereby hurt former President Jair Bolsonaro – by cutting tariffs on several Brazilian foodstuffs, including beef, coffee, and fruit (see more here). But things would get worse for Bolsonaro: Police arrested him on Saturday over fears that he would try to escape house arrest to avoid the 27-year sentence he’s serving for plotting a failed coup. The Supreme Court believed the right-wing leader was tampering with his ankle monitor, so granted the arrest. Trump had placed 50% tariffs on Brazil over its treatment of Bolsonaro, but his priority appears to be shifting.
Another spate of mass school abductions rock Nigeria
Several Nigerian states have shut their schools following a spate of mass abductions over the weekend, adding yet another dilemma to the mounting security crisis in Africa’s most-populous country. The most notable abduction took place on Friday in Niger State, where gunmen kidnapped 315 children and 12 teachers – 50 of the children have since escaped. President Bola Tinubu announced afterwards that he would recruit another 30,000 police officers. With the Islamist militant group iSWAP sowing violence in the north, violence burgeoning between farmers and herders in the central Benue state, and these latest abductions, Tinubu’s to-do list is getting long and difficult.
All Too Well, indeed. #puppetregime
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