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Hard Numbers: Israel assassinates Hezbollah commander, DOGE gets DOGE’d, Ethiopian volcano erupts, Not much to show for COP30
People walk past a damaged building during the funeral of Hezbollah's top military official, Haytham Ali Tabtabai, and of other people who were killed by an Israeli airstrike on Sunday, despite a U.S.-brokered truce a year ago, in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon November 24, 2025.
8: DOGE has been DOGE’d, with a White House official declaring that the Department of Government Efficiency – which, under Tesla owner Elon Musk, tried to slash government spending – no longer exists. The department still had eight months left before the end of its charter.
12,000: A long-dormant Ethiopian volcano, Hayli Gubbi, erupted for the first time in nearly 12,000 years, sending ash 9 miles high and drifting across the Red Sea. No casualties were reported, but ash is strangling the local vegetation and threatening local herders’ livelihoods.
1.5: As COP30 comes to a close, the conference concludes with an agreement projecting that the world will likely exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming in the next five years, with few promises made to stop it. The agreement did not mention fossil fuel curtailment, and instead focused on climate change adaptation, in a sign that countries are prioritizing energy security over climate commitments.
What We’re Watching: Russia-Ukraine peace deal, Rough weekend for Brazil, Mass school abductions in Nigeria
Servicemen of the 148th Separate Artillery Zhytomyr Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire a Caesar self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops at a position on the front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the frontline town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, Ukraine November 23, 2025.
Is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal imminent?
After facing backlash that the US’s first 28-point peace deal was too friendly towards Russia, American and Ukrainian negotiators drafted a new 19-point plan on Monday. The talks nearly fell apart before they began, but both sides reported ultimately that the meeting felt “positive.” However, whether this gets Ukraine and Russia any closer to a ceasefire remains to be seen. The new draft apparently bears little resemblance to the original plan – meaning Moscow may not agree. It also does not address the most controversial issues like territorial questions and the future of NATO–Russia–US relations, leaving them for Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky to resolve before Washington’s Thursday deadline.
A rough weekend for Brazil’s Bolsonaro
On Friday, US President Donald Trump gave Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a boost – and thereby hurt former President Jair Bolsonaro – by cutting tariffs on several Brazilian foodstuffs, including beef, coffee, and fruit (see more here). But things would get worse for Bolsonaro: Police arrested him on Saturday over fears that he would try to escape house arrest to avoid the 27-year sentence he’s serving for plotting a failed coup. The Supreme Court believed the right-wing leader was tampering with his ankle monitor, so granted the arrest. Trump had placed 50% tariffs on Brazil over its treatment of Bolsonaro, but his priority appears to be shifting.
Another spate of mass school abductions rock Nigeria
Several Nigerian states have shut their schools following a spate of mass abductions over the weekend, adding yet another dilemma to the mounting security crisis in Africa’s most-populous country. The most notable abduction took place on Friday in Niger State, where gunmen kidnapped 315 children and 12 teachers – 50 of the children have since escaped. President Bola Tinubu announced afterwards that he would recruit another 30,000 police officers. With the Islamist militant group iSWAP sowing violence in the north, violence burgeoning between farmers and herders in the central Benue state, and these latest abductions, Tinubu’s to-do list is getting long and difficult.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (R) answers a question from Katsuya Okada of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan during a House of Representatives Budget Committee session in Tokyo on Nov. 7, 2025. At the time, Takaichi said a military attack on Taiwan could present a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan.
Tensions between Tokyo and Beijing hit a boiling point last Friday when China accused Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi of “a grave violation of international law.” Her alleged crime? Statements that a Chinese attack or blockade of Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival and be met with military intervention. The ensuing diplomatic crisis has not just upended relations between China and Japan, but threatens to ensnare the United States in a geopolitical showdown in the Pacific.
Why were Taikachi’s comments so incendiary? Takaichi used the phrase, “situation threatening Japan’s survival,” to describe potential Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. That’s a specific legal designation under Japan's 2015 security legislation that allows the prime minister to deploy the military in self-defense.
This breaks with Tokyo’s traditional ambiguity on the use of force in the case of invasion, and signals publicly that it would stand with Washington in a crisis – something China considers a direct challenge to its sovereignty. Article V of the US-Japan security treaty obliges the US to defend Japan if it is attacked.
What has China done in response? Beijing has suspended seafood imports, discouraged Chinese tourists from traveling to Japan, and allowed mass cancellations of flights and tours without penalty. Concerts by Japanese artists in China have been abruptly pulled from venues and cruise ships that once filled ports in Kyushu are now being rerouted to South Korea. The goal is to hit Japan where it hurts: tourism has helped boost the economy post-Covid, and many small cities rely heavily on Chinese visitors.
On the diplomatic front, Beijing sent a letter Friday to UN Secretary-General António Guterres urging Japan to “deeply reflect upon its historical crimes,” a reference to Japan’s invasion of China during World War II, and calling on Tokyo to “retract its erroneous remarks.” On Sunday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi posted a statement to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s website that Japan’s leadership has “said things they shouldn’t have said, and crossed a red line that should not have been touched.”
How is Japan reacting? Tokyo is not taking back Takaishi’s words, saying instead that Beijing is misinterpreting them. According to senior Japanese government spokeswoman Maki Kobayashi, “The claim our country has altered its position is entirely baseless” and Tokyo remains “committed to dialogue” with Beijing.
What’s China’s goal? Beijing hopes to frustrate Takaichi’s pledge to accelerate Japan’s military buildup and raise defense spending to 2% of GDP by fiscal year 2025, two years ahead of the target set by her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba. According to Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore, China is seeking “to box Takaichi in and put her on the back foot early on – so she will be more reluctant to push forward on Japan’s investment in defense.”
But so far, the public is backing the prime minister. According to David Boling, Eurasia Group’s director of Japan and Asia Trade, “Takaichi’s approval ratings are very high – even climbing higher in some polls. The Japanese public has a very negative view of China, and China’s extreme response will only reinforce that view.”
Could Japan’s position deter an invasion of Taiwan – or accelerate it? If China believes that a Taiwan crisis would trigger a US-led coalition response, Beijing could escalate its preparations to get ahead of Japan’s planned military buildup. Beijing is already conducting invasion drills using its “shadow navy,” and Chinese coast guard ships have increased their presence around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, putting the Japanese air force and navy on high alert. That could increase the odds of a takeover – or an unintended encounter that could spiral into an international crisis.
German Chancellor and chairwoman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Angela Merkel addresses a news conference in Berlin, Germany September 19, 2016.
Angela Merkel was elected chancellor of Germany on November 22, 2005, becoming the first woman to hold that job. In many ways, she was the ballast of Europe through the Eurozone crisis, the refugee surge, and the COVID pandemic.
During that time Merkel was arguably the most powerful woman in the world, presiding over one of its largest economies for four terms in the Bundesregierung.
Twenty years on, the anniversary is a reminder of how singular her breakthrough remains. It’s still the exception when a woman runs a country.
Consider the scoreboard. As of September 2025, 29 countries had a woman as head of state or government, just 14% of nations on a planet that is half female. Even after 2024’s “year of elections” which sent more than 4 billion people to the polls, men still outnumber women by three to one in legislative positions.
In 1995, when then First Lady Hillary Clinton famously declared, “Women’s rights are human rights,” 11% of parliamentarians globally were female. Today it’s 27%, but their share of cabinet leadership roles slipped over the past year. In short: representation in legislatures inches forward glacially, but control of the levers of power remains overwhelmingly male.
There are high-profile women in top offices, Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni among them, but they are still swimming against a powerful tide: more than 100 countries have never had a woman leader.
Why does it matter who sits at the top? Beyond basic fairness, evidence keeps mounting that diverse leadership broadens policy priorities and improves decision-making. Studies have pointed to reduction of violence, greater gender equality, and strengthened education, healthcare, and social welfare policies. In geopolitical terms, it also affects how states engage in multilateral forums and crisis response.
At the Paris Peace Forum in October, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet said women are more likely to bring empathy to positions of power. “Empathetic doesn't mean sympathetic,” she told GZERO. “It means that you can put yourself in the shoes of the other so you can understand the problem.”
Madam Secretary-General. About a third of the 193 United Nations member states have had a female leader, but the UN itself has never elected a woman to its top spot. As the organization marks its 80th anniversary, there are growing calls to change that next year, when a new Secretary-General will be chosen.
The organization GWL Voices has backed a campaign called “Madam Secretary-General,” and several prominent geopolitical players vocally supported the movement at this year’s General Assembly.
Ecuador’s Permanent Representative to the UN and GWL Voices Executive Director Maria Fernanda Espinosa told GZERO, “I think after 80 years of history, the organization deserves to have a woman at the helm. If the UN really wants to be transformed, there is a shift in styles of leadership that is needed. And the question I ask is, ‘Why not a woman?’"
After Merkel. While in office, Chancellor Merkel often promoted women’s rights in her speeches and once said, “I hope we won’t have to wait 100 years to achieve [full equality].”
Actually, the organization UN Women reports at the current pace it will take 130 years to attain an equal balance of men and women in positions of power.
While there has been progress since Merkel made history two decades ago, the path to parity remains elusive.
What We’re Watching: Kyiv gets a nugget US peace plan, Election day in Guinea-Bissau, Two men from Queens meet at the White House
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 20, 2025.
A nugget for Kyiv in the US plan for ending the war
The United States’ 28-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine appears to contain many items from Russia’s wish list, but it has emerged that it also has something for Kyiv: a security guarantee akin to NATO’s Article 5, which says that an attack on one member state is an attack on all. The US and its European allies would be part of this guarantee. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who faces domestic pressure over a corruption scandal, said on Thursday he’s willing to engage with the plan – although he did draft a statement with European leaders that disavowed parts of the proposal. The Kremlin said it hasn’t formally received the plan.
This West African incumbent may struggle to win reelection
Guinea-Bissau, a West African country of two million people that plays a central role in global cocaine trade, is holding the first round of its presidential election this Sunday. One-term incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo faces fierce competition from opposition leader Fernando Dias, who has centered his campaign on security and keeping soldiers out of politics – a rather tough challenge in a country that has had several military coups. The issue hasn’t gone away, either: there was reportedly a coup attempt this year. Most incumbents have won reelection on the continent this year, often amid reports of vote-rigging. Will it be different in Guinea-Bissau?
Two men from Queens walk into the Oval Office
New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is heading to the White House today to meet with Donald Trump, setting the tone for the relationship between the leader of the US’s biggest city and the US president – and there’s plenty that could go wrong. While they both hail from Queens, they represent movements on vastly different sides of the political spectrum. If things go south, Trump holds a more powerful hand: he has threatened to cut off funding for the city, flood its streets with ICE agents, and send in the national guard. While Mamdani may hesitate to provoke the president, he’ll lose his base if he’s seen as cowing to the president.
Argentine President Javier Milei speaks during the America Business Forum at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, USA, on November 6, 2025.
$20 billion: Argentine President Javier Milei had a fantastic midterm election last month, but the celebration might be coming to an abrupt end: A group of US banks shelved its $20-billion bailout plan for the South American nation, favoring instead a short-term loan package.
6: A group of six US Democratic lawmakers published a video telling military and intelligence officials that they must disobey illegal orders. The move irked President Donald Trump, who suggested that the move constituted, “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH!”
70 million: The Louvre wasn’t the only site of a successful heist in broad daylight this fall, as a group of men posing as Indian central bank officials robbed a vehicle that held 70 million rupees ($800,000) in the southern state of Karnataka on Wednesday afternoon, per police. Law enforcement is still searching for the culprits.
41: Relentless rains and flooding in central Vietnam have killed at least 41 people, left nine missing, submerged over 52,000 homes, and cut power to half a million households. Hard-hit cities like Hoi An and Nha Trang face evacuations, landslides, and infrastructure collapse as typhoons grow increasingly frequent.
10.5: The former leader of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party was sentenced to ten-and-a-half years in prison this morning for accepting pro-Russian bribes. Nathan Gill was paid thousands of pounds to deliver TV interviews in favor of an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reform UK has taken a more dovish position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than other parties in the United Kingdom.
$1 trillion: During his White House visit this week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to increase his investment in US firms to nearly $1 trillion. There’s just one problem: Riyadh’s Public Investment Fund is running low on cash, according to a New York Times report.
What We’re Watching: US and Russia’s peace framework, West Africa on edge, Iran asks Saudi Arabia to put in a good word with Trump
A psychologist comforts a resident in front of an apartment building that was hit yesterday by a Russian missile, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Ternopil, Ukraine, November 20, 2025.
Details emerge of US-Russia plan for Ukraine
The proposal would give Russia more territory, cap the size of Ukraine’s military, and grant both the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church official status within Ukraine. While it envisions some US security guarantees for Kyiv, it also prohibits foreign troops and long range weapons on Ukrainian soil. In its current form, some consider it a Kremlin Christmas list, though officials say it’s just an initial “framework.” The Ukrainians see the plan as a non-starter, but the corruption scandal currently engulfing President Volodymyr Zelensky may complicate his ability to push back. Who’s funding Ukraine’s war effort now? See our recent Graphic Truth here.
Military governments continue to struggle with militants in West Africa
Islamist militants with ties to al-Qaeda killed at least 10 government soldiers in western Niger on Wednesday. The attack from the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM) group, which controls a portion of West Africa that spans Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, will likely fuel further fears of these insurgents seizing power in this trio of military-controlled West African countries – the militants already have Mali’s capital surrounded (read more here).
Iran’s leader asks Saudi Arabia to help bring Washington back to the table
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian sent a letter to Saudi Arabia’s leader on the eve of his visit to the White House asking him to pass on a message to Donald Trump: please resume US-Iran nuclear talks. Since the US and Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program during the 12-day war in June, diplomacy has stalled. Iran is getting desperate to return to talks in order to lift the sanctions that are crippling its economy and worsening chronic water and energy shortages. The note marks that Iran’s leadership may be scrambling for a breakthrough with Washington — now we’ll see if Trump bites.