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Graphic Truth: Europe tries to fill US void in Ukraine funding
Under former President Joe Biden, the United States had been a major supporter of Ukraine, handing more than €100 billion to Kyiv in cumulative financial, humanitarian and military aid. In 2024, the US gave more to Ukraine than all of Europe combined. That has changed since US President Donald Trump took office, with Washington halting most forms of aid to Ukraine (it does still offer some military support, and has handed weapons to Ukraine via money allocated during the Biden administration). Europe has tried to fill the void, as the graphic shows, but there are concerns the European money well is starting to dry up.
United States President Donald J Trump awaits the arrival Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud at the White House in Washington, DC, USA, on November 18, 2025. Featuring: Donald J Trump Where: Washington, District of Columbia, United States When: 18 Nov 2025
It is fair to say that Trump’s 2025 engagement with its regional neighbors was not on the market’s radar when he assumed office in January. There were, however, indicators of what was to come. In December 2024, Trump cast a spotlight on Panama, pledging to retake control over the canal to prevent the US from continuing to be “ripped off.” Trump also spoke early on about targeting regional trading partners Canada and Mexico with tariffs. In the case of Canada, these threats and musings about the possibility of a “51st state” set off a chain reaction that led to then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation in January.
Trump’s longstanding commitment to curbing regional migrant flows and “executing the immigration laws” of the US offered another clue of what lay ahead. From the so-called travel ban issued on the first day of Trump 1.0 in 2016, to appropriations for the southern border wall to dispatching US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents on the streets in 2025, Trump and his team care deeply about enforcement, who is allowed to enter the country, and who is permitted to stay in the country.
The administration’s Day 1 executive order on foreign policy built on these indicators and set forth a vision for Trump 2.0: “From this day forward, the foreign policy of the United States shall champion core American interests and always put America and American citizens first.” The “America First” isolationism of Trump’s first term was replaced with an activist, no-stone-left-uncovered approach.
A neighborhood unsettled
Despite transparency about its foreign policy ambitions, the way in which the current US administration has gone about pursuing its policy objectives in the Western Hemisphere – designating drug cartels as terrorist organizations, striking alleged narcotraffickers operating in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, moving an advanced aircraft carrier into waters off of Venezuela, reopening a military base in Puerto Rico, among other measures - has surprised many and rankled regional leaders and US allies.
In recent days, Colombia announced it would suspend intelligence sharing with the US after months of tension with the Trump administration. Colombia is not alone. Close allies in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands have also halted intelligence sharing over the Trump administration’s tactics in the region and human rights concerns.
Drawing on doctrinal ghosts
To make sense of these regional developments and their fallout, analysts and watchers have called upon the Monroe Doctrine. Some have gone so far as to label the administration’s foreign policy approach the “Donroe Doctrine.”
Although pithy and appealing, the 1823 Monroe Doctrine was primarily a response to external (European) interference in Western Hemisphere affairs. Pursuant to the doctrine, the American continents would not be open to future colonization, and the US would consider any violation of this tenet to be “dangerous to our peace and safety.” It is from the Monroe Doctrine that the concept of “spheres of influence” was derived. Europe would be for Europe. Existing European colonies were also for Europe. Everything else in the Western Hemisphere was for itself, with the caveat of a “connected” and invested US standing readily by.
It would be naïve to disregard all analogies to the current landscape. The Trump administration is aware of the deep trade, economic, and security relations between countries in the region and China and Russia. In 2025, China is now South America’s top trading partner and a major regional investor. The US administration’s forthcoming National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy will both reportedly highlight the need for greater attention to the region in light of these global dynamics.
Even still, there are limits to the dispositive power of the Monroe Doctrine. The recent US overtures in the Western Hemisphere are not principally animated by the threat of external interference. Rather than the original Doctrine, the Trump administration’s strategy in the region better recalls its 1904 corollary set forth by then-President Theodore Roosevelt. According to the Roosevelt Corollary, in the event of “chronic wrongdoing” or “impotence” in the Western Hemisphere it was the US’s responsibility to serve as an “international police power” for the region. The Roosevelt Corollary empowered American vast interventionism based on conditions within the Western Hemisphere itself, regardless of any external threat.
The Trump Doctrine
In a similar manner, the second Trump administration is also directing a message to the region. The US will not tolerate hostile neighbors, unfettered narcotics, and unregulated migration flows. And over the long term, the US intends to achieve better access to regional markets and natural resources like rare critical minerals to support US domestic markets and its economic agenda. To these ends, there will be force – “police power” - (war exercises, military buildups, targeted strikes), but the administration will also leverage all the tools in its portfolio from economic (tariffs, bailouts, aid suspensions and sanctions) to political (visa restrictions, renaming water bodies). Posting last week on social media, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth explained: “The Western Hemisphere is America’s neighborhood and we will protect it.”
This is the developing Trump Doctrine: use all available means at any time to champion core American interests, and always put America and American citizens first. As defined, in each case, by the administration. But unlike Roosevelt, who aspired to “walk softly and carry a big stick” the Trump administration has heavy footsteps and will be pulling many levers.
Hard Numbers: China-Japan tensions extend to seafood, Italy expands definition of rape, Klimt painting becomes second-most expensive ever sold, & More
A photo taken on September 14, 2024, shows seafood at Jimiya fishing port in Qingdao, China, on September 14, 2024. On September 20, 2024, China and Japan reach a consensus on the issue of the discharge of contaminated water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, and China states that it will gradually resume the import of Japanese aquatic products that meet the regulations.
227: All 227 lawmakers who were present in Italy’s lower house yesterday voted to expand the definition of rape to include all non-consensual acts. Under the current penal code, rape is an act that involves violence, threats, or abuse of authority. Reports of sexual violence in Italy have risen in recent years: there were 6,231 in 2023, up from 4,257 in 2014.
2: After a gunman attacked a church in Nigeria, killing two people, rapper Nicki Minaj appeared before the UN to call for action against the persecution of christians in the country – something that US President Donald Trump has said he would also make moves to address.
$236.4 million: A portrait by the Austrian artist Gustav Klimt, famed for painting “Women in Gold,” sold in New York City on Tuesday for $236.4 million, becoming the second-most expensive painting of all time. Six people competed for “Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer,” which Klimt created between 1914 and 1916. Like “Women in Gold,” the Nazis had looted the painting from Jewish owners during World War II.
21 million: The concept of kissing dates back more than 21 million years, University of Oxford scientists have found, with humans and many of their ancestors engaging with the practice. The study didn’t explore why the practice began.
At least 25 people, including three children, were killed in a Russian drone and missile assault on Ternopil, in western Ukraine, overnight on Wednesday, according to Ukrainian rescue services.
Is the US drafting secret peace plans with the Russians?
The US has apparently been secretly drafting plans with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, per Axios, raising questions of whether Ukraine would accept a deal made without its input. It comes as Russia’s two biggest oil companies – Lukoil and Rusneft – are about to have US sanctions enforced against them on November 21, upping the Kremlin’s incentives to make a deal Meanwhile, Russia is inching forward on the battlefield and just carried out a deadly attack in Western Ukraine, while Zelensky is in Turkey trying to revive peace talks on his own terms.
Markets on edge as world’s most valuable firm set to announce earnings
The AI chip design firm Nvidia, valued at roughly $4.6 trillion, will reveal its third-quarter earnings when markets close at 4 pm ET time, amid growing concerns that there is an AI bubble. Fears over potential overvaluation of AI firms are contributing to a selloff this month, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq index dropping 5%. The share price of Nvidia itself has dropped 4% this week. Analysts have set the bar high for Nvidia’s earnings, with some market participants anticipating profit growth above 50% – less could spur a drop in stock value.
Syria prosecutes suspects in sectarian clashes
Fourteen men were put on trial at an Aleppo court yesterday on charges they stoked sectarian clashes that left more than 1,000 people dead earlier this year. Half the defendants are members of the government security services and half are Alawites, the sect to which ousted dictator Bashar al-Assad belonged. Hundreds more from both sides await trial. Since ousting Assad last year, President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who has reinvented himself as a globetrotting statesman, has struggled to contain sectarian violence, including bloodshed driven by his own men. Critics have questioned the independence of the courts, but the trials are seen as a big test of accountability, something unimaginable under the Assads.What We’re Watching: UN backs US plan for Gaza, Trump to sell fighter jets to Saudi, Zelensky seeks funds with money well running dry
UN Security Council members vote on a draft resolution to Authorize an International Stabilization Force in Gaza authored by the US at UN Headquarters in New York, NY on November 17, 2025.
UN Security council approves Trump plan for Gaza
The resolution lends international legitimacy to a multi-national peacekeeping force and US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. Not everyone loves it. Russia and China abstained, saying the resolution gives too much leeway to the US to shape Gaza’s future. Israel, meanwhile, objected to language gesturing towards a possible future Palestinian state. Hamas rejected the resolution outright and said it refuses to disarm. That’s still the hard reality on the ground: how many countries, UN resolution or not, will be willing to send their troops into a firefight with Hamas?
Trump says he’ll sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia as crown prince arrives
Ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to the White House today, Trump announced Monday that he would sell F-35 fighter planes to the Gulf state. If fully approved, Saudi Arabia would be only the second country in the Middle East – after Israel – to successfully purchase these jets. Several other deals are set to be announced, too, including on civilian nuclear infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and even hotels, bringing the two oil-producing states closer together. Do these deals remove the incentives for Saudi to join the Abraham Accords? Not necessarily – they still would love access to Israeli tech – but it does mean they’re in less of a rush.
Ukraine is on the hunt for more funds and peace talks
Ukraine desperately needs more funds, and Europe is at an impasse on how to refill its coffers. Belgium blocked a loan plan that would use the $160 billion of Russia’s central bank assets to fund Ukraine, fearing it could be on the hook if Russia demanded its money back or retaliated against Euroclear, the Belgian central securities depository where the funds are held. While the EU is looking for ways to allay Brussels’s worries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is turning to Spain and Turkey for funds and peace deals: Madrid announced a $1.16-billion aid package after meeting with Zelensky, who is now heading to Turkey, where he will try to “reinvigorate” peace talks with Russia.Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and Minister of Finance Francois-Philippe Champagne applaud after a confidence vote on the federal budget passes in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada November 17, 2025.
Canada’s six-month old minority government survived a de facto confidence vote on its first budget yesterday, avoiding the possibility of a Christmas election. Carney now has a mandate to run the second-highest deficit in Canadian history, at CA$78.3 billion, in order to implement wide-ranging industrial policy that includes infrastructure, resource development, and defense. It’s a blow for the opposition parties, most notably the Conservatives, whose leader Pierre Poilievre is facing a leadership review vote by his party at its annual convention in January.
What will the budget mean for Canada? Over the next five years, the government will invest CA$115 billion in infrastructure spending, including electricity-grid upgrades and high-speed rail, as well as in major projects, including port infrastructure, LNG plants, and to support critical minerals development projects that could challenge China’s dominance in the sector. It will spend CA$25 billion on housing, a major election issue, as well as an extra CA$81.8 billion on defense. A “Buy Canadian” procurement regime will steer federal contracts toward domestic suppliers for all these engagements.
But the plan comes with an average CA$64.3 billion annual deficit for the next four years, double what had been projected by the previous government. According to the Fitch ratings agency, Canada’s general government-debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 91.8% in 2026 and 98.5% in 2027, compared with 88.6% in 2024 and nearly double its AA rating median of 49.6%. To counter the fiscal pressure, the budget promises to cut 10% of public service jobs to balance the government’s operating expenditures, but capital spending will still have Ottawa in the red.
Those factors made the budget unpalatable to both the right-wing Conservatives and the left-wing New Democrats while two other smaller parties, the Bloc Quebecois and the Greens, refused to support it due to its failure to increase Old Age security payments and its removal of the federal emissions cap on Canada’s oil and gas industry.
So then how did the budget pass? Carney’s government was three seats shy of a majority when the bill was introduced on Nov. 4. That same day, however, a Conservative MP, Chris d’Entremont, crossed the floor to the Liberals, and a day later, another Conservative, Matt Jeneroux, announced he would resign his seat in the spring, ostensibly for family reasons, amid rumours that he was also considering joining the government.
That left Carney still in need of two crucial votes, or a combination of votes and abstentions. He got the support of Elisabeth May, leader of the Green Party, in exchange for a promise to meet Canada’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, though it is not clear how that will be achieved with the new energy investments in the budget. Four opposition MPs then abstained, two each from the Conservatives (Jeneroux, and another with serious health issues) and the New Democrats (one whose local mayors and Indigenous leaders did not want an election, and another who saw benefits in the budget for her riding). This allowed the budget to pass by a vote of 170 to 168.
Where does this leave the opposition? The drama has weakened Conservative leader Poilievre. Many MPs were already unhappy with the party’s election defeat in April, blaming Poilievre for failing to pivot to the issue of opposing US President Donald Trump. The Conservative leader also lost his own seat and had to win a seat in a by-election in order to return to Parliament in September.
But the biggest problem in the Conservative Party is governance. In the wake of the budget floor crossing, Poilievre and his advisors reportedly threatened MPs to prevent further defections, leading one to liken their style to that of “the Sopranos”. This could spell trouble for Poilievre at an upcoming Conservative leadership review in January, required when the party loses an election: a score under 80% could severely undermine his ability to remain leader.
At the other end of the political spectrum, the NDP are fighting for relevance after the 2025 election reduced them to seven seats and saw their leader resign. The party is voting to choose a new leader in March 2026, making the prospect of an election now without a permanent leader an unappealing prospect. However, the decision by two members to abstain revives bitter memories of the party’s deal to prop up the previous Liberal government, which angered many members and became a factor in the New Democrats’ defeat.
How stable is the government?
With the budget passed, the Liberals don’t need to worry about another confidence vote until the fall of 2026. But nothing prevents the government from going to the polls at any time, if it thinks it could be to its advantage. The longest a government can stay in power in Canada is five years, but the average lifespan of a government without a locked-in majority of Parliament is about two years. The timing of the next election could hinge on many factors, including striking a trade deal with Trump, the state of the Canadian economy, and the strength – or weakness - of opposition leaders.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi holds talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Gyeongju, South Korea, on Oct. 31, 2025.
650,000: Roughly 650,000 Chinese tourists visited Japan in September, but those levels are under threat amid a diplomatic rift between the two countries. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that her country would intervene if China attacks Taiwan, prompting Beijing to cancel tour groups to Japan and ban employees of state-owned enterprises from traveling there.
2: Two Ukrainian men, who are believed to have been working with Russia, have been identified as the culprits behind the rail sabotage attacks in Poland over the weekend. The men are believed to have been recruited by Russian intelligence.
18: A Georgian man who hatched a plan to feed poisoned candy to Jewish children in New York City pleaded guilty on Monday to soliciting hate crimes. Prosecutors will seek an 18-year jail sentence. The man led a Russian & Ukrainian neo-Nazi group that has sought to sow violence worldwide.
2,000: The South African government announced that it will block the arrival of any further flights of Palestinians after hundreds arrived by air in recent weeks. Passengers said they paid $2,000 per ticket to an aid agency offering them a route out of the country, but South African Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola denounced the flights as part of “a broader agenda to remove Palestinians from Palestine.”