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David Moscrop
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Foreign Relations Chair, Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD), applaud as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a joint meeting of Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., July 24, 2024.
A day after his address to Congress, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is meeting today with President Joe Biden and, separately, with Vice President Kamala Harris.
The relationship between Netanyahu and the White House was already strained, and his Wednesday speech couldn’t have helped. Harris skipped the address and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who sat it out along with roughly half of the Democratic House and Senate caucuses, called it “by far the worst presentation of any foreign dignitary invited and honored with the privilege of addressing the Congress of the United States.”
Netanyahu repeatedly made misleading or untrue statements and struck a critical tone and spent more time praising the Trump administration than Biden’s. He called protesters outside the Capitol “Iran’s useful idiots.”
Nonetheless, both Biden and Harris have gone out of their way to make it clear they support Israel, despite their patience with its prime minister wearing thin. In February, Biden described Israel’s attacks in Gaza as “over the top.”
Even as the death toll in Gaza approaches 40,000, there’s no way the US will abandon Israel, even if the Democrats give Netanyahu a bit of a cold shoulder and a few critical worlds. But amid an escalating tit-for-tat between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the US is also wary of seeing the war in Gaza spiral into a regional conflict — and the Biden administration has signaled that it would be harder to provide back-up for the Jewish state if this happens.
Along these lines, the White House is likely to once again convey to Netanyahu that it’s time for the war in Gaza to end.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem takes part in a news conference, after cutting key interest rate, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada July 24, 2024.
After becoming the first central bank in the G7 to cut interest rates back in June, the Bank of Canada lowered rates again on Wednesday, by 25 basis points to 4.5% — and suggested there may be more cuts to come.
In its decision, the bank noted that global growth is expected to proceed at around 3% and that inflation is expected to cool gradually. It also noted that in the US, where the economy has remained hot despite inflation, “the anticipated economic slowdown is materializing, with consumption growth moderating.” That’s sending US inflation — which hit its lowest point in 12 months in June — down as well.
According to a recent Reuters poll of economists, experts still expect two rate cuts — the current rate is 5.5% — by the Federal Reserve this year, with the first not coming before September. Those polled expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at their meeting this month. But Fed officials have signaled that a rate cut is getting “closer.”
On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US GDP grew by 2.8% in the second quarter this year driven by, among other things, higher consumer spending while inflation sits at around 3% — data which bolsters expectations that the Fed will wait until September for a rate cut.
Paris 2024 Olympics - Football - Women's Group A - Canada vs New Zealand - Geoffroy-Guichard Stadium, Saint-Etienne, France - July 25, 2024. Katie Kitching of New Zealand in action with Jade Rose of Canada.
Canada is making news at the Olympics already – but not the good kind. On Wednesday, two Canadians – analyst Joseph Lombardi and assistant coach Jasmine Mander – were sent home and removed from the women’s soccer team after a member of the support team was caught spying with a drone on the New Zealand women’s team practice. Lombardi was also given a suspended prison sentence from French officials, which he accepted.
Team Canada Head Coach Bev Priestman opted to voluntarily sit out the first game against New Zealand. Fifa is now investigating Priestman, Lombardi, and Mander.
The drone scandal couldn’t entirely distract, however, from the news that singer Celine Dion was seen in Paris, fueling speculation that she could perform at the Olympics. Dion was diagnosed with Stiff Person Syndrome in 2022, which has left her unable to perform.
She won’t be the only artist catching attention in Paris, though. Snoop Dog will carry the Olympic torch on Friday.
The US is expected to win 123 medals and lead the count at the Paris games, while Canada is anticipated to bring home 22, putting them just outside the top 10.
DOD in Photos: 2020 This collection showcases the work of U.S. military photographers in 2020, when U.S. service members continued to conduct around-the-clock training and operations worldwide to ensure the nation's security, even while responding to the coronavirus pandemic. The USS Toledo (SSN-769) arrives at Ice Camp Seadragon on the Arctic Ocean kicking off Ice Exercise (ICEX) 2020. ICEX 2020 is a three-week, biennial exercise that offers the Navy the opportunity to assess its operational readiness in the Arctic and train with other services, partner nations and Allies to increase experience in the region, and maintain regional stability while improving capabilities to operate in the Arctic environment. U.S. Navy Photo by MC1 Michael B. Zingaro Where: United States When: 04 Mar 2020
Climate change is already reshaping US and Canadian defense policy. Melting Arctic ice raises the chances of natural disaster, and it’s also leading to an increased military presence in the north — from the US and Canada, but also Russia and China.
In response, the Pentagon has adopted an Arctic strategy that includes working with allies like Canada on interoperability while building defense capacity in the north. It includes new surveillance, reconnaissance, and communications in the region as well as training in the area.
This comes on the heels of the US signing the ICE Pact – an Arctic cooperation plan with Canada and Finland that includes an emphasis on building icebreakers. It also accompanies a Canadian security push that includes more spending on defense and a push to hit NATO’s 2% of GDP target in the next decade.
Canada recently bought a hangar in the Arctic next to a NORAD airbase after months of US urging, just as China and Russia were expressing interest in the property.
The flurry of Arctic defense news isn’t likely to diminish. In fact, on Wednesday night, Sen. Lisa Murkowskishared that she was briefed by Pentagon officials on Russian and Chinese bombers that were intercepted in Alaska’s air defense identification zone. She thanked the US-Canada integrated response and called the move by Russia and China an “unprecedented provocation by our adversaries.”
Arctic powers have been fighting over the region for years; as ice melts and shipping routes and potential defense vulnerabilities open, countries will be watching the region closely and angling for dominance.
Harris breathes new life into Democratic Party. Could someone do the same for Canada’s Liberals?
When President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he would not seek reelection, his decision, albeit a little late, was quickly applauded by Democrats as a service to his country — and party.
In the higher-minded rhetoric, Biden was cast as a modern Cincinnatus, putting duty above personal interest. Perhaps the writing was already on the wall, with Biden unlikely to resist the growing calls for him to step aside. But the immediate effects of his decision are the same either way: Vice President Kamala Harris is now the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, an energetic change candidate, and the party has enjoyed an immediate reenergizing.
After Biden dropped out, the Dems raised an astonishing $150 million from big donors, as well as $81 million from small donors in a record-breaking 24 hours. As many joked on X, Harris outgrossed “Twisters” in her opening weekend. Of note, much of the money came from smaller individual donations of $200 or less — 888,000 of them, in fact.
The Harris campaign immediately rallied tens of thousands of volunteers, hitting 28,000 by Monday, many in battleground states. Scripps News reports that’s 100 times greater than the campaign average. A Zoom call with Black women who support Harris drew 44,000 participants — a staggering number that exceeded the company’s limit of 1,000 people and required it to move the group to a webinar.
The energy boost Democrats are enjoying may have Canadian Liberals wondering if a similar outcome might be possible for them. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau insists he’s staying on as leader, readying to fight in the fall 2025 election despite being roughly 20 points behind Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. By the time the vote rolls around, Trudeau will have been in power for a decade.
Trudeau has been asked to step down by a few notable sources within his party, but the pressure to leave hasn’t risen to the level Biden faced. That could be because the election is still more than a year away, or because Poilievre doesn’t present the existential threat to democracy and rights that Dems say Trump poses. Liberals may also think that for all their misfortune, they could still turn things around and that Trudeau is their best bet for doing so. But things don’t look great.
Election projection site 338 Canada’s Philippe Fournier projects the Conservatives will win 212 seats compared to 74 for the Liberals. That’s based on a popular vote projection of 42% for Poilievre’s side compared to 24% for Trudeau’s, a spread that reflects federal polls that routinely find the Conservatives ahead by 14 to 20 points or more. Trudeau’s approval rating, meanwhile, has sunk to all-time lows.
The Conservatives are leading their rivals in fundraising by a lot. In the first three months of 2024, the party brought in just under CA$11 million from 51,000 donors, which was triple what the Liberals managed and more than all opposing federal parties combined. Political donations in Canada are a fraction of what they are in the US, but the Conservative numbers are high for the country. In 2023, Poilievre broke records with roughly 200,000 donors pledging over $35 million. The Liberals managed $15.6 million.
As bad as things look for the Liberals, however, there doesn’t seem to be much hope that anyone else could turn the Liberal campaign around like Harris looks poised to do in the US.
“There’s pretty good data to suggest that when incumbents are replaced by a successor [in Canada,]” says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group, “the successor has much lower chances of reelection than the original incumbent, especially when that original incumbent’s poll ratings are below a certain threshold where they’re doing pretty poorly.”
Perhaps the most infamous example was in 1993, after Progressive Conservative Prime Minister Brian Mulroney stepped down amid plunging poll numbers and was replaced by Kim Campbell. The PCs lost that election to the Liberals, dropping from 156 seats to two.
The United Kingdom’s recent election is further evidence of the phenomenon. The unpopular Conservatives dropped to 121 seats from 365, losing control of the government to an ascendant Labour Party after roughly 14 years in power — and after cycling through five prime ministers.
Thompson says it’s unlikely there’s anyone in the Liberal Party who could replace Trudeau and turn the ship around. Those within Trudeau’s Cabinet are tied to his government and record, painted with the same brush. And those outside the party would face their own challenges, including time.
“Somebody would have to come in and distance themselves from the government here up to this point," he says, "and embrace a set of policies and a style which would have to be very different.”
“I don’t think that just putting a new coat of paint on the same sort of decrepit structure is going to change the fundamentals. You would really have to be a new government, and that’s going to be very hard for somebody who has been a member of that government up to this point who doesn’t have a long runway to prepare that pivot or transition.”
Thompson also points out that for external candidates, like former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney — with whom sources say Trudeau recently met in a bid to get him to join his government — there are few if any incentives to hop on a sinking ship. Moreover, no replacement candidate of Harris’ caliber seems ready, willing, and able to serve.
The numbers bear out that analysis. A recent Nanos poll found that while 19% of respondents chose Carney as the most appealing Liberal leader, followed by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland at 19%, and Trudeau himself at 9%, a quarter chose “None of the above” and another 20% chose “unsure.”
Harris may be able to continue to inject life into the Democratic Party. She may have a real shot at turning the Democrats' campaign around. But she still has to prove she can stand up to Trump on the national stage.
It doesn’t seem that anyone can — or wants to — do the same for the Liberals, which means Trudeau looks likely to stick around, go down with the ship, and leave the reinvigoration and rebuilding to a successor, who’ll find themselves not on the government side but in the opposition seats.
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during news conference with Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 31, 2018.
There appears to be some tension behind the scenes between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his indispensable right-hand woman – Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chyrstia Freeland.
The trouble started on June 24, when the Liberals lost a by-election in what had been considered a safe Toronto seat. After the loss, rattled Liberals started to quietly suggest that Freeland, who represents the adjoining riding, should be replaced. On July 11, the Globe and Mail reported that senior people in Trudeau’s office were thinking of doing that. This resembled a leaked story that preceded the resignation of Trudeau’s last finance minister, Bill Morneau.
Trudeau is trying to recruit former Bank of England and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, who may or may not be interested in Freeland’s job, which leaves her in an awkward position. On Sunday, Trudeau met with Carney to try to convince him to join the government, the Globe and Mail reported. Liberals hope Carney would be better able to communicate the government’s economic message, but some are skeptical about whether he would be anxious to climb onto what looks to be a sinking ship.
“The position looks like a poisoned chalice for Carney, who would be joining a deeply unpopular government that looks likely to be booted out of office at the next election,” said Eurasia Group analyst Graeme Thompson. “If he does take up the role of finance minister, it would likely be as a stepping stone towards a leadership campaign to replace Trudeau at the Liberal Party helm.”
Freeland, meanwhile, said Tuesday that she had a long conversation with Trudeau last Friday and that she still feels she enjoys his confidence. On Thursday, Labour Minister Seamus O’Regan was preparing to announce his departure, which means Trudeau will need to shuffle his cabinet. Trudeau is holding a cabinet meeting Friday as pressure mounts for him to show he has some kind of a plan for a comeback.
Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew shake hands as they meet at the Manitoba Legislative Building in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada February 15, 2024.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced new pressure Wednesday from an unusual source to increase defense spending, when Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said Canada should boost spending to preserve its trade relationship with the United States.
Kinew, a member of the left-leaning New Democrats – a party that is traditionally opposed to increased military spending – said, “If we’re not meeting our responsibility to our NATO allies, it is going to have an impact on [the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement] renewal.”
The trade agreement is set to be reviewed in 2026, which will create the opportunity for the United States to push for changes, which seems likely no matter who is in the White House, since the pressure from the U.S. dairy industry, among others, is likely to persist.
During a NATO summit in Washington last week, under pressure from US politicians, Trudeau announced that Canada will hit the NATO target of 2% of GDP by 2032, and buy a new fleet of submarines, but he has not laid out a plan for doing so. Back in Canada after the summit, Defense Minister Bill Blair said it would amount to about CA$60 billion a year in spending, which economists would require significant cuts or spending increases.
Traditionally, defense spending has not been a vote winner in Canada, but if opinion leaders are increasingly seeing it as linked to the vital trade relationship, that may be changing.
Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs Melanie Joly speaks during a reception honouring the visit of the Chairperson of the African Union Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat in Gatineau, Quebec, Canada October 26, 2022.
Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly made a surprise visit to Beijing on Thursday as Canada and the United States are both considering new barriers to trade with China.
Canada-China relations have gone from bad to terrible since 2018, when Canada held Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou for extradition to the United States and the Chinese government responded by detaining Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. Wanzhou and the two Michaels were released in 2021, but a Canadian public inquiry into foreign interference continued to put a strain on relations. Then came the suspected Chinese spy balloon surveillance in US and Canadian airspace in 2023.
Still, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China was open to improving relations earlier this year.
But this week, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said she would be talking to Canadian business and labor groups about erecting new trade barriers with China. Washington sent a similar message as Joe Biden told allies on Wednesday that he is considering taking fresh action to block Chinese chip manufacturing. Meanwhile, in Milwaukee this week, Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, said China is the “biggest threat” facing the United States.
The Chinese likely want to talk to Joly about avoiding new trade barriers with Canada, since China’s economy is struggling and any new limits on exports could further slow growth. Joly will no doubt listen politely, but Canada is unlikely to jeopardize its crucial trade relationship with the United States by making any side deals with Beijing.