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What We’re Watching: Pushback on Venezuela strike, Tax protests in Bulgaria, China-Japan coastguard dispute
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth speaks during a meeting with Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader at the National Palace, in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic November 26, 2025.
Washington is growing uncomfortable with Venezuela strike
The White House sought to shift blame away from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth on Monday, instead declaring that Admiral Frank Bradley ordered the killing of two people on a boat – even after the boat was destroyed. A report from the The New York Times undermined the original Washington Post report over Hegseth’s role in the strikes, appearing to affirm the White House’s position. Nonetheless, Congress is questioning whether this move constitutes a war crime. Even Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV), who represents the second-reddest state, criticized the second strike. The domestic uproar comes as it emerged that US President Donald Trump refused Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro’s amnesty requests during a Nov. 21 phone call. Is a US hit on Caracas now imminent?
Tax protests rock Bulgaria
Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of the Bulgarian capital, Sofia, to protest a new budget that would raise taxes to pay for expanded social services. Several dozen people were arrested after clashing with the police. What’s at issue? Bulgaria is the most corrupt EU country, according to Transparency International, so when people hear “higher taxes” they mostly hear “thicker lining for officials’ pockets.” The protests have thrown the fate of the ruling center-right government into doubt just weeks before Bulgaria finally joins the Eurozone. If the government falls, Bulgarians would head into their eighth general election in the past four years.
China-Japan coastguard faceoff in disputed waters
There’s tension in the East China Sea after China and Japan’s coast guards faced off near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. China said that its coast guard took “necessary” action after a Japanese fishing boat illegally entered its waters. Meanwhile Japan attested that Chinese vessels intruded into Japanese waters and threatened a fishing boat. The incident comes amid worsening China-Japan ties after the new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Japan could respond militarily if China attacked Taiwan. Meanwhile, both sides have militarized their coast guards in recent years and are increasing their patrols near the islands, upping the risk of confrontation in an area that has been a long-running flashpoint in the East China Sea.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky inspects a guard of honor by the Irish Army at Government Buildings during an Irish State visit, in Dublin, Ireland, on December 2, 2025.
It hasn’t been an easy year for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – and not just because Russia is still invading his country.
US President Donald Trump’s return to office heralded a sharp slowdown in new White House spending on Ukraine – it has dropped to virtually zero this year. Europe has made up for some of the shortfall, but is now struggling to find new funds for the war effort. Further, the US recently authored a plan that would force Ukraine to relinquish sizable parts of its territory.
Now, a corruption scandal is engulfing the Ukrainian leader, forcing his top aide, Andriy Yermak, to resign. Yermak was officially Zelensky’s chief of staff, but reportedly held a far greater role – he was also the vice president, lead negotiator, and held vast powers on economic and security matters. His exit will thus leave a major void in Zelensky’s government.
What this means for peace negotiations. The Trump administration believes that the corruption scandal will make Zelensky more willing to accept a peace agreement – even one that includes measures that have been red lines for Kyiv. Trump has been publicly pressuring the Ukrainian leader, dishing out another ultimatum for accepting a deal that involves giving up land in exchange for security guarantees.
The message seemed to fall on amenable ears: Zelensky told his countrymen on Nov. 21 that he must either accept a deal or lose the US as an ally. Washington and Kyiv reportedly made a little more progress during talks in Miami over the weekend.
Not so fast. There’s just one problem with the White House’s belief that it can pressure Zelensky into accepting a deal: Ukrainian soldiers don’t support the US peace plan, and Ukrainians at large increasingly believe that Washington is trying to force Kyiv to accept an unfair peace deal, according to polling from the Kyiv International Institute of Technology. If Zelensky accepts a bad deal, it might further harm his domestic standing.
“Zelensky’s political problems arguably make it even harder for him to make any major concessions to secure a cease-fire,” said Eurasia Group’s Eastern Europe expert Alex Brideau. “While the public wants negotiations and an end to the war, it does not support a deal that meets Russian demands on territory and neutrality.”
What does Zelensky want? He is focused on “obtaining security guarantees from Western partners that would protect the country from any future Russian invasion,” said Brideau. The US has offered this to Ukraine, but with the caveat that they must hand land to Russia that the Kremlin hasn’t yet taken – something the comedian-turned-wartime leader isn’t ready to do.
As such, Zelensky on Monday turned to a more sympathetic ally for support: Europe. The continent has been Ukraine’s principal supporter this year, and was quietly aghast at the 28-point peace proposal that the US released last month. After meeting with Ukraine’s leader in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated that it was up to Kyiv whether it chooses to cede territory.
Not rushing yet. Zelensky wants to make a deal “as quickly as he can,” per Brideau. The Ukrainian leader even said that “now more than ever, there is a chance to end this war,” while visiting Ireland on Tuesday. However, he isn’t time-constrained, in large part because Ukraine refuses to hold an election during wartime – Zelensky’s five-year term technically expired 18 months ago.
“Under martial law, Ukraine cannot hold national elections,” says Brideau. “Until there is a path for a lasting cease-fire, the government will keep renewing the martial law declaration every three months.”
If there was an election, recent polling suggests that Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom Valerii Zaluzhnyi would defeat Zelensky in a hypothetical race.
The incumbent leader, though, has said that he would step down if the war ended. For all the various negotiations that have taken place between Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington, this isn’t necessarily going to happen imminently.
“A quick deal will remain elusive,” said Brideau, “given the wide gulf between Russia and Ukraine on their core demands and insufficient external pressure to force a change by one or both.”
What We’re Watching: Another glitch in Russia-Ukraine talks, UK Labour Party to raise taxes to record levels, Tensions spike in Syria’s third-largest city
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomes US envoy Steve Witkoff during a meeting in Moscow, Russia, on April 25, 2025.
Witkoff leak is only the latest glitch in Russia-Ukraine negotiations
A leaked recording of an October call between US special envoy Steve Witkoff and a senior Kremlin official is the latest drama to spill into the Ukraine peace talks. In the call, scooped by Bloomberg, Witkoff – already mistrusted by the Ukrainians – gives tips on how Russian President Vladimir Putin can soften up US President Donald Trump in negotiations. This follows the mini-drama in which US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was forced to affirm this week that the White House had “authored” an initial 28-point plan, after he reportedly told US senators that it hadn’t. Meanwhile Russia is still warning that it won’t accept a deal that strays from its red lines, while accusing Europe of “meddling” in the talks. With so much drama and division, we are keenly tuned in to see what plan, if any, emerges in the coming days.
Will the UK’s new budget right the ship?
The UK government will impose record tax hikes in order to balance the state’s finances while supporting more social spending, according to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ new budget. The tax burden will reach 38% of GDP by 2030, the highest in UK history, with the help of a de-facto income tax rise and a new tax on homes worth above £2 million. Labour supporters will cheer the increased social spending but the higher overall tax burden, even on less affluent families, could sting at the polls. Markets swung forward and back in response to the announcement, suggesting they weren’t fully convinced by Labour’s efforts to balance its books. We’re watching to see how this bold fiscal move will affect Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his flailing government.
Syria’s sectarian tensions flare again after brutal double killing
The gruesome murder of a Sunni bedouin couple in the Syrian city of Homs has stoked sectarian tensions in one of the country’s largest cities. The husband and wife were found dead in their home, with sectarian epithets scrawled at the scene. The killings set off a brief wave of reprisals against local Alawites, the sect to which the now-ousted Assad dynasty belonged. Since overthrowing the Assad regime a year ago, President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist who has remade himself as a statesman, has struggled to contain sectarian violence, some of it stoked by his own men. The situation in Homs, a strategically located city that is home to Sunnis, Shia, Christians, and Alawites, is an important test case.
What We’re Watching: Russia and Ukraine negotiations continue, Trump and Xi make a springtime date, Sudan’s rebels declare unilateral ceasefire
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll attend a meeting, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, November 20, 2025.
Ukraine and Russia still worlds apart as peace talks continue
Moscow said that it would reject any ceasefire deal that doesn’t meet its core demands for more territory, the large-scale disarmament of Ukraine, and a ban on Ukrainian NATO membership. The Kremlin’s cold water comes after Ukraine was all smiles following a fresh round of ceasefire talks with the US yesterday. While the White House seems keen to strike a deal soonest, the two sides are still worlds apart on what they are willing to agree to – Washington has now abandoned its Thanksgiving “deadline” for a deal. Today, Russian and American negotiators will be meeting in the UAE to see if they can narrow the gaps between the two peace plans, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling for a meeting with US President Donald Trump later this week.
Was Taiwan the subject of US-China call?
After talking on the phone Monday, Trump said he will be meeting with Xi Jinping IRL in Beijing in April and that Xi will come to the US for a state visit later in the year. While the White House said that the call had been “very positive” and mainly focused on trade, Chinese state media reported that the call had focused on Taiwan, saying Xi had communicated to Trump that returning Taiwan to return to Chinese control was “integral.” For more on the impact of the US-China rivalry, see our recent piece on how the trade war has hit the US heartland.
Sudan paramilitaries agree to one-sided ceasefire
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries on Monday announced a three month “humanitarian ceasefire” in their brutal, two-and-a-half-year long civil war with the Sudanese military. The plan was brokered by the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. Good news, maybe, but there’s a huge catch: the RSF announced the move after the army rejected it because of the involvement of the UAE, which has faced persistent accusations that it backs the RSF. The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people and driven 14 million from their homes. Both sides are accused of widespread war crimes.
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the controversy around Trump's 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan.
He says the proposal was “mostly drafted by the Russians” and loaded with “complete non-starters” for Ukraine, from ceding more territory to reducing troop levels and granting blanket amnesty for war crimes.
Ian explains that while allies publicly “appreciate the American effort,” he notes that few are buying the plan’s substance. With Europe divided and Russia sensing momentum, he warns that “the war is not close to over,” and that the next phase will likely be shaped by battlefield realities, not diplomacy.
All Too Well, indeed. #puppetregime
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What We’re Watching: Kyiv gets a nugget US peace plan, Election day in Guinea-Bissau, Two men from Queens meet at the White House
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 20, 2025.
A nugget for Kyiv in the US plan for ending the war
The United States’ 28-point plan for ending the war in Ukraine appears to contain many items from Russia’s wish list, but it has emerged that it also has something for Kyiv: a security guarantee akin to NATO’s Article 5, which says that an attack on one member state is an attack on all. The US and its European allies would be part of this guarantee. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who faces domestic pressure over a corruption scandal, said on Thursday he’s willing to engage with the plan – although he did draft a statement with European leaders that disavowed parts of the proposal. The Kremlin said it hasn’t formally received the plan.
This West African incumbent may struggle to win reelection
Guinea-Bissau, a West African country of two million people that plays a central role in global cocaine trade, is holding the first round of its presidential election this Sunday. One-term incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo faces fierce competition from opposition leader Fernando Dias, who has centered his campaign on security and keeping soldiers out of politics – a rather tough challenge in a country that has had several military coups. The issue hasn’t gone away, either: there was reportedly a coup attempt this year. Most incumbents have won reelection on the continent this year, often amid reports of vote-rigging. Will it be different in Guinea-Bissau?
Two men from Queens walk into the Oval Office
New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani is heading to the White House today to meet with Donald Trump, setting the tone for the relationship between the leader of the US’s biggest city and the US president – and there’s plenty that could go wrong. While they both hail from Queens, they represent movements on vastly different sides of the political spectrum. If things go south, Trump holds a more powerful hand: he has threatened to cut off funding for the city, flood its streets with ICE agents, and send in the national guard. While Mamdani may hesitate to provoke the president, he’ll lose his base if he’s seen as cowing to the president.