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The Debrief
President Trump has given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu free rein on Gaza longer than many of us expected. But Israel is not America's only Middle East partner. Is Trump now willing to pressure Netanyahu to salvage and expand ties with his Gulf allies? Eurasia Group's Firas Maksad breaks it down.
Netanyahu's visit to the Oval Office last week and the major announcement of a Gaza Peace Plan is what stole all the media headlines. But for me, the biggest story was Trump's commitment to another Middle Eastern ally, and here's why. In September, Israel undertook an unprecedented strike against an Arab Gulf capital in Doha, Qatar trying to get at Hamas officials. It failed, and what he ended up doing is putting President Trump in a bind. Saudi Arabia was quick to react. It signed a mutual defense deal with the Pakistanis, effectively extending Pakistan's nuclear umbrella to the Arab Gulf. Egypt and Turkey also reacted very quickly, papering over past differences and launching joint naval exercises just off the Israeli coast in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Trump's ties to these Arab nations run deep. He chose Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE as the first foreign destination for his visit, not only in the first term, but also more recently in his second term. During these trips, he signed billions of dollars worth of contracts in foreign investments, tech, defense, energy, and other fields. Up until this week, President Trump had actually done very little to rein in Israel. He's allowed it to operate freely, not only in Gaza, but also in Lebanon and Syria really culminating with that attack in Doha, Qatar. But he now understands that he also needs to manage relations with these critical Arab Gulf allies, otherwise, that will undermine the business deals and the security relationship that he has with that part of the world.
So will President Trump be able to maintain that critical balancing act between America's Arab allies and Israel on the one hand, or would it all come apart in the lead-up to the crucial visit of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House in November? We'll have to wait and see.
At the UN, President Trump called climate change a "con job" and a "scam." But here's the thing, says Eurasia Group's Franck Gbaguidi, it doesn't matter what you call it, it matters what you do about it. And so far, Trump has changed how we talk about climate change, but not what's being done about it.
President Trump has made it a mission to roll back the clock on climate policy, like withdrawing again from the Paris Climate Agreement, doubling down on fossil fuels or demonizing offshore wind. But really, when it comes to action, that's pretty much about it.
What he has done is changed the way sustainability advocates, world leaders, or even large corporations, are talking about climate change. So now they no longer talk about energy transition, but they talk about energy security. Before you couldn't talk about nuclear power here in New York during climate week because Fukushima and many other incidents, now there's an excitement that we've never seen before.
France, Egypt, South Korea, all these countries are ramping up efforts and they're doing so under the framework of energy security. Take climate change. We no longer talk about climate change per se, but we focus on water security. That's because people can deny that climate change exists, but they won't deny droughts, they won't deny floods. Take the US and Mexico and all of the water access issues at the border. Take China and India when it comes to dam constructions and all of the controversies that come with it. Same thing with Greece and Bulgaria and their water agreement. Water stress has become a major issue, and work is being done both on the policy side and on the investment side to ensure that we have the right technology to address the problem.
Final example, emission reductions. We no longer talk about it now we focus on adaptation. So you're not hearing as much about those big, shiny targets to reduce emissions. That era is pretty much over and done with. Most countries are no longer announcing ambitious targets, they're focusing on adaptation. Take India, for instance, where outdoor workers now, for a big part of the year, can only work until 10:00 a.m before it gets too hot. So it's about addressing the world that we live in today rather than preventing one we don't want to live in tomorrow.
So why does it matter? If you watch the news, you may think that we are in a "stop the clock" moment. Big countries are pulling out of climate accords. They're no longer prioritizing the topic. I mean, here in New York at the UN, artificial intelligence and many other hot button issues have basically pushed climate to the back burner. But that is in fact hot topic. There is still plenty being done. So yes, Trump will keep calling climate change scam. But that won't stop what companies, investors, and world leaders are doing to address it.
So far, Trump's approach to energy policy is to maximize US fossil fuel production that keeps the price of gasoline low, and it's been a winning formula. But in the latest episode of The Debrief, Eurasia Group energy analyst Gregory Brew says the Big Oil honeymoon may be coming to an end.
First, his sweeping tariffs announced earlier this year, shocked oil markets and sent the price of oil tumbling at the same time. Tariffs on things like imported steel means rising costs for US oil companies. It's now more expensive to drill a well in the United States than it was a year ago. Second, Trump is anxious to preserve his relationship with Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, and also the head of OPEC. As a result, Trump has turned a blind eye to OPEC policy of increasing oil production this year, which has pushed prices down even further. Low prices. Rising costs means less profits for US oil companies. So why does that matter? Well, less profits means fewer jobs, a slowdown in activity and economic pain in places like North Dakota and Texas Centers of the US oil industry that also happen to be deep red states where Trump generally maintains high levels of support. That means some trouble for Trump moving into next year's midterm elections by November of 2026. Drill baby drill might seem like a hollow mantra, and that might hurt Trump's brand where it matters most.
Despite the foot dragging and all the threats of taking over Gaza City, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will find his way to a ceasefire in Gaza this September. Here's why.
First, domestic pressure is growing. Israel is witnessing some of the largest street protests it's seen in the past two years. They're repetitive, they're consistent, they're ongoing. Second, there's growing international pressure. It is not only the Saudis that are leading the charge for recognition of a Palestinian state at the United Nations this September. It's also the French and the British and other European and Western allies of Israel. By signing on to a temporary ceasefire, Bibi can preclude some of that pressure.
There are also opportunities here. Netanyahu is better positioned against members of his own coalition who have been threatening to leave it if he signs onto that ceasefire, namely, ministers Ben Gvir, Smotrich are in a weaker position right now in the polls that they had been previously. They need him more than he needs them in the lead up to expected parliamentary elections next year.
There's also President Trump and rumors around Washington have it that he will be willing to visit Israel after a stopover in the UK on the 17th to the 19th of September if in fact Bibi finds his way to that temporary ceasefire. And lastly, what Hamas is putting on the table here is an acceptance of the American plan, otherwise known as the Witkoff plan named after the American envoy who tabled it last spring, but couldn't get itself to accept it. So for Bibi not to accept an American plan that he signed off on back in spring is counterintuitive.
So for all those reasons, we think that there will be a temporary ceasefire in September. It's not a total end to the war. It's a 60-day reprieve. Israel can find itself back at war in Gaza, perhaps occupying the entire strip. That will be the negative and brutal scenario. One would hope that diplomacy will find a way and will reign supreme by the end of that 60-day ceasefire.
After years of careful planning, negotiations in Geneva over the first-ever global plastics treaty ended in deadlock, says Eurasia Group's sustainability expert Franck Gbaguidi.
Here's why the world is stuck in a plastic waste trap.
Trump and Putin are heading to Alaska this Friday for a summit to end the war in Ukraine, but both leaders will have the price of oil very much on their minds, says Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew in the first episode of The Debrief.
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