Big oil is getting big mad at Trump
September 11, 2025
VIDEOSGZERO World with Ian BremmerQuick TakePUPPET REGIMEIan ExplainsGZERO ReportsAsk IanGlobal Stage
Site Navigation
Search
Human content,
AI powered search.
Latest Stories
Sign up for GZERO Daily.
Get our latest updates and insights delivered to your inbox.
The Debrief
The latest in geopolitical news explained by GZERO Media and Eurasia Group experts.
Presented by
So far, Trump's approach to energy policy is to maximize US fossil fuel production that keeps the price of gasoline low, and it's been a winning formula. But in the latest episode of The Debrief, Eurasia Group energy analyst Gregory Brew says the Big Oil honeymoon may be coming to an end.
Trump is a fan of proclaiming "drill, baby drill," but the reality on the ground is a bit different from the mantra and could mean trouble for him in next year's midterm elections. His approach to energy policy is to maximize US fossil fuel production that keeps the price of gasoline low, provides a hedge against inflation, and also boosts us business, particularly US energy exports. So far, drill baby drill has been a winning formula. US oil and gas production are at all time highs. This summer, the US produced more oil than it ever has at more than 13 point a half million barrels a day. Oil companies are strong supporters of President Trump, who has vowed to cut regulation, boost fossil fuel exports, and also throw up roadblocks to renewables like wind and solar. But the honeymoon might be coming to an end and it's partially Trump's fault.
First, his sweeping tariffs announced earlier this year, shocked oil markets and sent the price of oil tumbling at the same time. Tariffs on things like imported steel means rising costs for US oil companies. It's now more expensive to drill a well in the United States than it was a year ago. Second, Trump is anxious to preserve his relationship with Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, and also the head of OPEC. As a result, Trump has turned a blind eye to OPEC policy of increasing oil production this year, which has pushed prices down even further. Low prices. Rising costs means less profits for US oil companies. So why does that matter? Well, less profits means fewer jobs, a slowdown in activity and economic pain in places like North Dakota and Texas Centers of the US oil industry that also happen to be deep red states where Trump generally maintains high levels of support. That means some trouble for Trump moving into next year's midterm elections by November of 2026. Drill baby drill might seem like a hollow mantra, and that might hurt Trump's brand where it matters most.
First, his sweeping tariffs announced earlier this year, shocked oil markets and sent the price of oil tumbling at the same time. Tariffs on things like imported steel means rising costs for US oil companies. It's now more expensive to drill a well in the United States than it was a year ago. Second, Trump is anxious to preserve his relationship with Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, and also the head of OPEC. As a result, Trump has turned a blind eye to OPEC policy of increasing oil production this year, which has pushed prices down even further. Low prices. Rising costs means less profits for US oil companies. So why does that matter? Well, less profits means fewer jobs, a slowdown in activity and economic pain in places like North Dakota and Texas Centers of the US oil industry that also happen to be deep red states where Trump generally maintains high levels of support. That means some trouble for Trump moving into next year's midterm elections by November of 2026. Drill baby drill might seem like a hollow mantra, and that might hurt Trump's brand where it matters most.
Keep reading...Show less
More from The Debrief
Is Trump about to invade Cuba?
May 21, 2026
In Beijing, could Trump trade away Taiwan?
May 13, 2026
Hormuz standoff: Who blinks first?
April 16, 2026
Does the Iran ceasefire stand a chance?
April 09, 2026
Viktor Orbán will lose re-election. But will he leave?
April 01, 2026
Trump likely to attack Iran soon–and may even target Khamenei
February 05, 2026
Brazil's COP30 is all about 'climate triage'
November 18, 2025
In Hungary, Orbán's grip on power is slipping
November 07, 2025
Trump wouldn't actually invade Venezuela...would he?
November 04, 2025
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off?
October 28, 2025
President Macron is down but not out
October 09, 2025
Trump's Middle East Love Triangle
October 07, 2025
Trump's climate "scam" talk at the UN was just that–talk
September 26, 2025
Here's why Israel will accept a Gaza ceasefire soon
August 27, 2025
Plastic waste is killing us. But we can't seem to quit it.
August 20, 2025
Trump and Putin's Alaska showdown is all about oil
August 13, 2025
GZERO Series
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer
Puppet Regime
Quick Take
ask ian
Ian Explains
GZERO Reports
GZERO Europe
The Debrief
© 2026 GZERO Media. All Rights Reserved | A Eurasia Group company.
GZERO Daily: our free newsletter about global politics
Keep up with what’s going on around the world - and why it matters.