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Trump wouldn't actually invade Venezuela...would he?
President Trump reportedly hasn't yet decided whether or not to invade Venezuela. But the fact that a man who got elected on ending endless wars is even considering waging war in the Western hemisphere is remarkable. How did we get here, and what happens next? Eurasia Group's Risa Grais-Targow breaks it down in the latest episode of #TheDebrief
Trump's been cagey on whether or not the US will go to war with Venezuela, but would he? Here's how it could happen and why.
So here's the context. Trump has started taking the war on drugs literally. You've probably seen US strikes on boats in the Caribbean allegedly carrying drugs, an issue that plays well with Trump's base in both red states and swing states and makes Democrats look weak. There's also concerns around migration flows, an issue that is very important for key advisors like Stephen Miller within the cabinet.
But this is about more than appearing tough on drugs and immigration. It's also about regime change. Ousting President Nicolas Maduro is unfinished business from Trump's first term and a key priority for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
There's also an element of psychological warfare here. You have a massive US military buildup just off the coast of Venezuela aimed at getting in Maduro's head, and it just might work.
Geopolitics are also key here. Trump is keen to show China that the US is strong in its backyard, Latin America, as we saw with his moves related to the Panama Canal earlier this year. He's also taking advantage of the fact that Maduro's typical allies, Russia, Iran, China, are either weak or distracted and are unlikely to come to his rescue. All of this suggests that the US may be readying for moves against Venezuela.
Obviously, US war with Venezuela would be a huge deal, but it's also about short-term political wins versus a long-term strategy, and that means that it could escalate very quickly.There's also competing interests within Trump's cabinet. For Stephen Miller, this is about testing the limits of presidential power while Rubio is more focused on toppling a leftist regime in the region that he sees as propping up other leftist regimes, including Cuba and Nicaragua.
Then there's Trump himself, who may or may not lose interest, especially if this is something that's not going to deliver a quick win.
So which way is this going to go? Here are a few things to look out for. The first is an escalation of "Maduro Must Go" rhetoric coming from the White House, something that we're just starting to see. The second is a broader campaign against cartels in the region that shifts the US focus to other countries like Mexico and Colombia.
Finally, there's strikes within Venezuelan territory itself, which could put the US on a clear path to escalation, at which point we may be past the point of no return. And unfortunately, the thing about a point of no return is that you don't always know you're there until you've passed it.
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off?
President Trump has directly sanctioned Russia for the first time since retaking office, over President Putin's refusal to come to the negotiating table on Ukraine. It's a move aimed at weakening Putin’s war economy, says Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew, but one that could have ripple effects from Beijing to the US gas pump.
Trump is getting tough on Russian oil, but to have a real impact on Putin, he'll likely have to go further, which could undermine his big trade deals and push up gas prices. Here at home, US President Donald Trump is running out of patience with Vladimir Putin who refuses to return to the negotiating table for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Last week, Trump took the surprising step of putting sanctions on two of Russia's largest oil companies, the first time the US has directly sanctioned Russia since he became president. Now, in theory, these sanctions should prevent Russia from selling oil to its two biggest customers, India and China, who together take more than two-thirds of Russia's crude oil exports an important source of income for Putin's war in Ukraine. But as ever, the devil is in the details.
Russia has been facing sanctions and other Western measures to disrupt its crude exports for years now, and it will probably find a way around these new sanctions if the US doesn't keep up the pressure. That means more sanctions will be necessary, not just on Russia, but on its customers. Secondary sanctions on Indian and Chinese refiners who have been buying Russian crude would help cut off the flow, but there could be blowback. Sanctions could anger the Indian and Chinese governments, undermining Trump's efforts to secure big trade deals with Beijing and New Delhi.
And even if some or all of Russia's customers decide to stop taking its oil, Trump could feel the pain back at home. The disruptive impact on Russia's crude oil exports could push up oil prices, which would, in effect, raise the price of gasoline in the United States. That means that after this big initial blow, Trump is likely to take it slow. He'll look to India to voluntarily back away from Russian oil to the EU to put on some new sanctions of its own, and finally to Putin to return to the negotiating table or risk tougher sanctions ahead. As ever, Trump will look to accomplish his goals without causing a big shock to oil prices. It's a delicate balancing act that Trump will have to manage as he tries to avoid nasty economic shocks that could undermine his position back at home.
Trump's Middle East Love Triangle
President Trump has given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu free rein on Gaza longer than many of us expected. But Israel is not America's only Middle East partner. Is Trump now willing to pressure Netanyahu to salvage and expand ties with his Gulf allies? Eurasia Group's Firas Maksad breaks it down.
Netanyahu's visit to the Oval Office last week and the major announcement of a Gaza Peace Plan is what stole all the media headlines. But for me, the biggest story was Trump's commitment to another Middle Eastern ally, and here's why. In September, Israel undertook an unprecedented strike against an Arab Gulf capital in Doha, Qatar trying to get at Hamas officials. It failed, and what he ended up doing is putting President Trump in a bind. Saudi Arabia was quick to react. It signed a mutual defense deal with the Pakistanis, effectively extending Pakistan's nuclear umbrella to the Arab Gulf. Egypt and Turkey also reacted very quickly, papering over past differences and launching joint naval exercises just off the Israeli coast in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Trump's ties to these Arab nations run deep. He chose Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE as the first foreign destination for his visit, not only in the first term, but also more recently in his second term. During these trips, he signed billions of dollars worth of contracts in foreign investments, tech, defense, energy, and other fields. Up until this week, President Trump had actually done very little to rein in Israel. He's allowed it to operate freely, not only in Gaza, but also in Lebanon and Syria really culminating with that attack in Doha, Qatar. But he now understands that he also needs to manage relations with these critical Arab Gulf allies, otherwise, that will undermine the business deals and the security relationship that he has with that part of the world.
So will President Trump be able to maintain that critical balancing act between America's Arab allies and Israel on the one hand, or would it all come apart in the lead-up to the crucial visit of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House in November? We'll have to wait and see.
Trump's climate "scam" talk at the UN was just that–talk
At the UN, President Trump called climate change a "con job" and a "scam." But here's the thing, says Eurasia Group's Franck Gbaguidi, it doesn't matter what you call it, it matters what you do about it. And so far, Trump has changed how we talk about climate change, but not what's being done about it.
President Trump has made it a mission to roll back the clock on climate policy, like withdrawing again from the Paris Climate Agreement, doubling down on fossil fuels or demonizing offshore wind. But really, when it comes to action, that's pretty much about it.
What he has done is changed the way sustainability advocates, world leaders, or even large corporations, are talking about climate change. So now they no longer talk about energy transition, but they talk about energy security. Before you couldn't talk about nuclear power here in New York during climate week because Fukushima and many other incidents, now there's an excitement that we've never seen before.
France, Egypt, South Korea, all these countries are ramping up efforts and they're doing so under the framework of energy security. Take climate change. We no longer talk about climate change per se, but we focus on water security. That's because people can deny that climate change exists, but they won't deny droughts, they won't deny floods. Take the US and Mexico and all of the water access issues at the border. Take China and India when it comes to dam constructions and all of the controversies that come with it. Same thing with Greece and Bulgaria and their water agreement. Water stress has become a major issue, and work is being done both on the policy side and on the investment side to ensure that we have the right technology to address the problem.
Final example, emission reductions. We no longer talk about it now we focus on adaptation. So you're not hearing as much about those big, shiny targets to reduce emissions. That era is pretty much over and done with. Most countries are no longer announcing ambitious targets, they're focusing on adaptation. Take India, for instance, where outdoor workers now, for a big part of the year, can only work until 10:00 a.m before it gets too hot. So it's about addressing the world that we live in today rather than preventing one we don't want to live in tomorrow.
So why does it matter? If you watch the news, you may think that we are in a "stop the clock" moment. Big countries are pulling out of climate accords. They're no longer prioritizing the topic. I mean, here in New York at the UN, artificial intelligence and many other hot button issues have basically pushed climate to the back burner. But that is in fact hot topic. There is still plenty being done. So yes, Trump will keep calling climate change scam. But that won't stop what companies, investors, and world leaders are doing to address it.
Will Trump's energy policies set back climate progress?
President Trump has made no secret of his distaste for wind and solar and preference for fossil fuels. His administration has canceled subsidies for renewable projects, lifted drilling restrictions on federal land, and is pressuring allies to buy more American oil and gas. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the reality of the energy transition and whether US policies will slow down global progress in moving toward a renewable future.
No matter what the White House says, the incentives for renewables are hard to ignore. From Texas to Saudi Arabia, India to China, governments all over the world are embracing solar and wind not just for the planet, but for economic and security reasons. Clean energy is now the cheapest power source almost everywhere. And, amid rising instability, energy independence has become a safety and security issue. You can’t embargo the sun. No one controls the wind. Fossil fuels still matter, but the question is no longer if the world will transition. It's how fast.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro stands next to members of the armed forces, on the day he says that his country would deploy military, police and civilian defenses at 284 "battlefront" locations across the country, amid heightened tensions with the U.S., in La Guaira, Venezuela, September 11, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Venezuela readies “battlegrounds”, US inflation creeps up, art market continues to collapse, Mexico to boost China tariffs
2: The European Central bank held interest rates steady at 2% today, waiting to see the impact of the new US-EU trade agreement. Meanwhile, across the pond, US consumer prices rose 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% in August, highlighting the ongoing challenges for the Fed as President Trump’s tariff policies stoke inflation fears while he also pressures the regulator to lower rates. For more on why that matters, see this explainer by GZERO’s Alex Kliment.
248 million: Going once, going twice. The famed auction house Sotheby’s annual losses have doubled to $248 million, as the global art market continues to collapse due to uncertainty about the US economy and a tapering-off of interest from high-end Asian buyers.
50: Mexico will slap 50% tariffs on Chinese/Asian automobiles, up from the current 20%. The move is part of a broader tapestry of new trade barriers meant to protect the country’s own industries from Asian competition, but the moves will also be welcomed by the US – Washington has accused Mexico of being a “back door” for cheaper Asian goods to enter the US.
Big oil is getting big mad at Trump
So far, Trump's approach to energy policy is to maximize US fossil fuel production that keeps the price of gasoline low, and it's been a winning formula. But in the latest episode of The Debrief, Eurasia Group energy analyst Gregory Brew says the Big Oil honeymoon may be coming to an end.
First, his sweeping tariffs announced earlier this year, shocked oil markets and sent the price of oil tumbling at the same time. Tariffs on things like imported steel means rising costs for US oil companies. It's now more expensive to drill a well in the United States than it was a year ago. Second, Trump is anxious to preserve his relationship with Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer, and also the head of OPEC. As a result, Trump has turned a blind eye to OPEC policy of increasing oil production this year, which has pushed prices down even further. Low prices. Rising costs means less profits for US oil companies. So why does that matter? Well, less profits means fewer jobs, a slowdown in activity and economic pain in places like North Dakota and Texas Centers of the US oil industry that also happen to be deep red states where Trump generally maintains high levels of support. That means some trouble for Trump moving into next year's midterm elections by November of 2026. Drill baby drill might seem like a hollow mantra, and that might hurt Trump's brand where it matters most.
Are Trump's tariffs the end of the free trade era?
For the last 80 years, America has been a leading advocate of free trade. It built (and benefited from) the rules of the global economic system. But as the Trump administration imposes record tariffs on allies and renegotiates trade agreements around the world, it’s no longer playing by the rules it created. Instead, it's becoming the most protectionist advanced industrial economy in the world. What happens when globalization's biggest backer becomes its biggest critic?
On GZERO World, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria joins Ian Bremmer to discuss President Trump’s tariffs, the rise of protectionism, and US retreat from global leadership, an ideology Zakaria calls the “beating heart” of MAGA. Big economies like China and the EU that rely on trade to maintain growth are increasingly trying to go around the US to make trade deals of their own. But America still has the largest economy in the world. President Trump's trade policies could send shockwaves through the global economic system America has spent generations building. The US has imposed high tariffs on many of its biggest trading partners, and so far, economy appears surprisingly resilient. But is this just the calm before a very big storm?
“The US was the beating heart of the free trade movement, the country that forced all the other countries in the world to open their markets,” Zakaria says, “If you shelter your best companies behind 15, 20% tariff walls, they're just not going to be as competitive.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔). GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.