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Will US aid help turn the tide of the Russia-Ukraine war?
Paraphrasing a quote often misattributed to Winston Churchill, the United States Congress finally decided to do the right thing … but not a moment too soon, and only after trying everything else first.
Last Saturday, the House of Representatives overcame months-long opposition from the far-right wing of the Republican Party and okayed a fresh military assistance package for Ukraine. Totaling nearly $61 billion, this is the largest single aid package the besieged nation will have received since the war’s onset. The bill passed the Senate on Tuesday night and was signed into law by President Joe Biden a few hours ago. Some of the newly appropriated American weapons systems and ammunition will begin flowing into Ukraine and reaching the frontline within days.
Congress had last authorized Ukraine funding in December 2022, when Democrats still controlled both chambers. Since then, further aid had been blocked by MAGA Republicans aligned with former president and presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump. The legislative breakthrough came over the weekend when House Speaker Mike Johnson, alarmed by the intelligence briefings he’d received on the war’s outlook and the scope of Vladimir Putin’s aims (and spurred by Iran’s attack on Israel), ultimately decided to take up the bill on a bipartisan basis despite the threat of removal from within his own party. Once it was brought to the House floor, the bill sailed through 311 to 112.
The decision couldn’t have come at a more critical time for Ukraine’s defense. Congressional inaction had rendered the outgunned and outmanned Ukrainian military desperately short of the artillery and air defense ammunition it needed to fend off both Russian advances on the frontline as well as drone and missile strikes against its cities and power infrastructure. This allowed Moscow to seize more than 135 square miles of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2024, especially in the eastern Donetsk region, including most notably the strategic city of Avdiivka in February.
Indeed, up until last weekend, Ukraine was in danger of suffering a major setback later this spring or summer, when Russia is expected to conduct a major offensive in Donetsk. A territorial breakthrough there could have put Ukraine on course to lose the war as soon as 2025.
The influx of fresh American aid will have an immediate impact on the battlefield, helping the Ukrainians to close the artillery gap with Russia (10-to-1 earlier this month, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky), increasing the odds that they can hold their ground in Donetsk against Russia’s upcoming offensive, and making a return to 2023’s stalemate more likely through at least the end of the year. In that sense, US funding is a meaningful near-term stabilizer.
That said, closing the ammunition gap alone won’t be enough for Ukraine to stabilize the frontline. To do that, Kyiv also needs to address its military’s other big challenge: a manpower shortage. The hard-fought and politically unpopular but much-needed law lowering the mobilization age from 27 to 25, reducing service exemptions, and extending conscripts’ terms of service signed by Zelensky earlier this month should help – provided that new troops are properly trained and deployed. Ukraine also has to build up fortifications along the frontline and secure enough air defense systems to protect its cities and infrastructure amid strained supplies due to the Middle East war. If they manage to do all these things, the Ukrainians will be on a stronger military footing going into 2025 than they are now.
Alas, none of this will be enough for Ukraine to turn the tide of the war. The aid package will not give Kyiv any offensive capability this year, and it is likely to be the last major one the US approves in 2024 – and possibly ever if Trump wins the US election in November or Republicans take the Senate. Even if Biden wins a second term, there’s little domestic political support for America to continue to provide $60 billion a year every year until Russia runs out of men to throw at the “meat grinder” and accepts defeat.
Rather than a silver bullet or a turning point, the US aid package is a lifeline that will keep the Ukrainians in the fight for another year, buy the Europeans precious time to step up their defense-industrial production game, and strengthen Kyiv’s negotiating position so that when the time comes to accept the unacceptable yet inevitable outcome of a partitioned Ukraine, it is able to extract the best terms it possible can.
You don’t have to like it. I sure don’t. That doesn’t mean it ain’t happening.
Why the US is sending aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to kick off your week. A big $90 billion package that has been approved by the US House of Representatives, going through the Senate shortly after months of debate and, all of the package, all three major pieces of it, have some significant, complicated features.
First of all, the biggest piece for Ukraine, $60 billion, massive military support.
They had been in danger of losing significant more territory. This certainly shores them up. It helps the Ukrainians. It makes the Europeans panic less, but, you know, can they longer term hold on? What is the end game? The Ukrainians are, of course, running short not just of material to fight, but also air defense capabilities and, critically, people, soldiers. It's much harder for them to get people for the front lines than it is for the authoritarian, and much larger populated Russia. And so, the intention is that the Ukrainians don't fall apart, but of course, longer term, the idea that the US will continue to be able to provide 60 billion in support year after year. Certainly not true if Trump becomes president, probably not true if Biden wins a second term. What you really want to do is try to find a way to get them in a better position so that negotiations, inevitably, that need to occur with Russia, can be more productive and more constructive from the Ukrainian side, from the European side, from the NATO side. The US kick the can on this last year when the Americans, were in much better position supporting Ukraine. Now it's harder. Always is the case is that you think that things are going to get better. You don't feel like taking the political risk and as a consequence you extend and pretend. And now they're in a worse position. So I'm glad that the money came through. I'm glad the Ukrainians, are still fighting courageously and want to fight courageously. But of course, longer term, this war leads to some degree of partition where the Ukrainians are losing their land.
Israel, closest ally of the United States in the Middle East. Some 17 billion in military support for Israel, also some 9 billion in humanitarian aid in Gaza in this plan.
But, of course, increasingly, the United States does not support Israel continuing to fight against Hamas in Gaza. They want to see a lot more protection for Palestinian civilians, which the Israelis have been reluctant to put in place. They don't want to see a ground offensive into Rafah. Over a million Palestinians shelter in there. The Israelis are fully intent on continuing with that, proceeding with it. They did want to see a cease-fire that was linked directly to a hostage release. Now, increasingly, the US is talking about those two things as critical but delinked. And at the same time as the US is providing all this money, you have sanctions being placed by the United States on battalions of the Israeli Defense Forces engaged in human rights violations. This shows just how impossible this position is for President Biden to maneuver domestically, not to mention internationally. The US is overwhelmingly, the one country that is most supportive of Israel. Biden is overwhelmingly the political leader that is most supportive of Israel. But most of his constituents are not. And this is absolutely going to hurt him, even though it's a foreign policy issue and they don't usually play that heavily in recent decades in the election coming up in November. And you’ll see it, of course, across campuses all over the country, including my own at Columbia.
And then finally Taiwan. And this is in a sense the least controversial, because everyone on the Democratic and Republican side pretty much supports more support for Taiwan, is opposed to China. It's very easy to get lots of legislation that makes life more difficult for China. At the same time, though, the long term strategy of the United States is to make Taiwan less important, less important for the Americans in making sure that semiconductor production, moves from Taiwan to the United States, to other allies, not just a few miles off of the mainland Chinese coast, but also export controls that prevent the Chinese from getting advanced semiconductors from Taiwan as well. In other words, the big US strategy is not just arming the Taiwanese and helping them defend themselves, but also making Taiwan fundamentally less important to mainland China. and one of the main reasons that the Chinese would not be interested in attacking Taiwan long term or squeezing them hard economically long term, is because they're so indispensable to the Chinese economy. This is not going to be the case long term.
In all three of these areas, you've got the United States with friends, but they are less aligned with strategically than they are tactically. And that means that this money that we see going forward is all about kicking the can on short term gains that make sense politically for the US right now. But long term do not resolve the challenges that exist for the US with these countries.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev attend a meeting in Moscow, Russia, April 22, 2024.
Armenia and Azerbaijan move toward peace deal as Russia’s influence dwindles
Armenia and Azerbaijan, historic rivals that have fought several wars since the collapse of the Soviet Union, are finally moving toward a peace settlement.
In a significant concession to Baku, Armenia said late last week it would hand over several border villages it’s controlled since the 1990s. “This is one more positive step toward a broader peace deal likely getting signed before the end of this year,” says Tinatin Japaridze, an expert on the region at Eurasia Group.
But Yerevan also didn’t have much of a choice. Armenia lost much of its leverage last September when Azerbaijan regained full control of the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region — a historically contested enclave that the two countries repeatedly fought over.
This new development is also just one piece of the puzzle and “definitely not the end of the saga,” Japaridze says, as other territorial disputes remain. Not to mention, the government in Armenia is already facing domestic pushback over this new border deal. And even if Baku signs a broader peace agreement, there’s no guarantee that it won’t take military action against Armenia in the future.
Along these lines, getting a final peace deal across the finish line and making sure it sticks will likely require the help of a third party. But in a break from the past, it seems that Russia is less likely to play this role.
Declining Russian influence For years, Armenia, a former Soviet republic, looked to Russia as a key partner. But Armenia felt abandoned by Moscow as it did little to prevent Azerbaijan from seizing Nagorno-Karabakh. Yerevan is increasingly turning to the West in this new era, as Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus region dwindles while its attention is focused on the war in Ukraine and problems at home.
“Russia is visibly losing some of the clout that it had had after the collapse of the Soviet Union,” says Japaridze. This could provide an opportunity for the EU or Washington to swoop in and boost their influence in the region, though it’s too early to tell.
But Russia is also unlikely to stand on the sidelines if it sees Western adversaries garnering closer ties in its historic neighborhood.
“Armenia is at the top of the list in terms of Moscow maintaining its influence in the South Caucasus. And I think it's an important one for them to have to continue to stay engaged with. But, in terms of the influence, it is certainly dwindling,” says Japaridze.
Europe welcomes US Ukraine package, but pushes to add even more aid
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
What's the European reaction to, finally, the decision by the US House of Representatives to give green light to military aid to Ukraine?
Well, obviously enormous satisfaction. We've been waiting for quite some long time. But it has to be said, however important this is, that it will take some time for it to reach the battle lines in the east of Europe. It's not enough. And, in the days before the US decision, that was a decision by the European head of state, the government, to increase European aid. There's already very substantial European aid packages there, of course, but more is needed primarily in the terms of our defense. Germany immediately decided to commit to further battery of Patriots. And, discussions are underway among European capitals to further Patriots and other deliveries that are necessary in order to, make certain to Mr. Putin that they will never win at some point in time, they simply have to cave back. And the last week was an important one.
What about the European aspirations of Georgia in view of the measures taken by its government?
Yeah, that's a big question. I mean, the Georgian government, a rather doubtful one, in my opinion, with this new foreign agents, Russian-inspired law against opposition is creating substantial doubts in European capitals, whether it was that wise to give the country candidate status. That has been done. But, let's see what happens now. It is certainly not going to be an issue of quick march for Georgia with the European Union in light of what we see happening in Tbilisi these days.
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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) speaks to the media at the US Capitol in Washington, April 17, 2024.
Mike Johnson rolls the dice
House Speaker Mike Johnson on Wednesday announced plans to move forward with a vote on several foreign aid bills, defying hardline Republicans and potentially sparking a vote to oust him.
Final votes are expected on Saturday. The bills, which would provide assistance to Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel, have been held up for months amid staunch opposition to further aid for Kyiv from a large cohort of Republicans.
With a razor-thin majority in the House, Johnson needs support from Democrats for the bills to pass, putting him at odds with the more extreme wing of his party. GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia – an ally of former President Donald Trump, who vehemently opposes more aid to Ukraine – has filed a motion to remove Johnson as speaker and could force a vote on it in response to this latest move. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) joined Greene’s push earlier this week.
Johnson also said a vote will be held on a bill for increased border security in an apparent attempt to throw a bone to the ultraconservative Republicans threatening his job. But it doesn’t seem to have worked as GOP lawmakers are already complaining that the bill doesn’t tie Ukraine aid to border security.
The aid package is still “likely to pass, one way or another,” says Clayton Allen, Eurasia Group’s US director, and GOP lawmakers like Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida “and the rest of the far right seem to know it.”
“For Johnson, it’s a choice of the lesser of two evils: face an impossible task of keeping his conference happy or take the plunge and hope he can survive a challenge to his position through a tenuous alignment with Democrats,” says Clayton.
“That he’s even considering the latter would be beyond the pale for a Republican speaker normally, but if the last six months have shown us anything, it’s that this Congress – or at least this Republican conference – is anything but normal.”
File photo - Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi at National League at the Democracy (NLD) headquarters, address journalists and supporters in Yangon, Myanmar on April 2, 2012.
Hard numbers: Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi moved to house arrest, Hugh Grant settles Sun case, Russian death toll in Ukraine, Boeing whistleblowers testify
3,000: Myanmar’s detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, 78, has been moved from prison to house arrest in a bid to protect her health amid severely hot weather. The junta also granted amnesty for more than3,000 prisoners to mark this week’s traditional Thingyan New Year holiday.
66 million:Hugh Grant says he has settled a high court claim against the publisher of TheSun newspaper, News Group Newspapers, for“an enormous sum of money.” Grant accused the paper of phone hacking, unlawful information-gathering, landline tapping, bugging his phone, and burgling his flat and office. His case was meant to go to trial alongside Prince Harry and other high-profile individuals next year. NGN, which has rejected any wrongdoing, said of the settlement with Grant that it was "in both parties' financial interests not to progress to a costly trial.” Last year, The Sun paid £66 million to victims of its illegal information-gathering.
50,000: Over50,000 Russian soldiers have died in the Ukraine conflict, with the death toll in the second year of fighting nearly 25% higher than the first, according to the BBC. BBC Russian, Mediazona, and volunteers focused on open-source information and new graves to conduct the count, and the total is eight times higher than Russia's official figures.
98.7: Multiple whistleblowers testified before a US Senate panel on Wednesday, alleging widespread manufacturing and safety issues within Boeing, as Congress and regulators try to hold Boeing accountable following a mid-air blowout on a 737 MAX 9 jet in January that reignited safety concerns. The whistleblowers alleged that the company failed 98.7% of the time to fill tiny gaps between components in the aircraft's fuselages, which could eventually cause fatigue failure. Boeing said that while it has taken “important steps to foster a safety culture that empowers and encourages all employees to raise their voice,” it knows there is “more work to do.”
People gather as they watch from afar after an alleged gang member was killed and set on fire, amid an escalation in gang violence, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti March 20, 2024.
Want to stabilize the world’s worst crises? “Leave your textbook in your drawer.”
Matthew Kendrick spoke with Ghassan Salamé, the former head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, and former UN Deputy Secretary-General Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, as part of a panel at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings on Wednesday.
The international community is struggling to address half a dozen conflicts, spanning from the Middle East to Haiti, that often involve institutions poorly equipped to tackle modern problems. But that doesn’t mean they can afford to stop trying; it just means they need to get creative.
“The most urgent need is to bring back humanitarianism as a domain independent from war,” said Ghassan Salamé, the former head of the UN Support Mission in Libya, noting that the basic concerns of food, education, and healthcare must not be held hostage to military objectives. “And you cannot apply it in a selective way. You have to apply it in Ukraine with the same strength you do in Gaza.”
Bias in attention is especially stark for Sudan, where just 3.2% of humanitarian needs have been funded despite a brutal civil war that has killed over 15,000 and forced a staggering 8.2 million to flee.
“Indifference is much worse than hostility,” said Salamé. “Sudan needs concern.”
Part of the problem, according to former UN Deputy Secretary-General Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, is that “humanitarianism was based on the idea that conflict is temporary, and then you go back to development.” That means when the shooting starts, the IMF and World Bank tend to back away and wait for the dust to settle before starting to help stabilize the affected economy. That just won’t fly in the 21st century, and Malloch-Brown called for the institutions to develop new tools to provide help before, during, and after a country falls into violence to strengthen key unifying institutions, such as ministries of finance, education, and social welfare.
The key, said Salamé, is to “leave your textbook somewhere in your drawer and try to solve the situation as it is.”
Looking at crises in developing countries along longer trajectories can help highlight their hidden potential. When asked how these new approaches could apply to Haiti, where the formal government has all but collapsed, Malloch-Brown said the country “never had the degree of internal development, social reform, or inclusive economic policies that allow a stable polity to emerge.” If Haiti receives “a persistent period of tender love and care,” he added, its economic potential means “I’m optimistic enough to believe it can be fixed.”
Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi (R), the Commander of the Defense of Kyiv.
Ukraine waits for help as Russia advances
Slow but steady gains come at great cost to Russian lives and equipment – both sides have seen tens of thousands of soldiers killed and hundreds of thousands wounded – but Russia has deeper reserves of both men and munitions.
For now, Ukraine is waiting for help, particularly from Washington. Without many more and much better weapons, warns Syrskyi, Ukraine can’t “seize the strategic initiative” back from the Russian invaders.
In Washington, House Speaker Mike Johnson continues to look for ways to provide Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in assistance while avoiding an open revolt from Republican lawmakers who want to cut Ukraine loose. Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress want to see what Johnson will bring to the House floor for a vote, and Ukrainians are waiting to see how long they can resist Russia’s current momentum.