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U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) after signing the funding bill to end the U.S. government shutdown, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 12, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Epstein files on the US House floor, Ukraine hits Russia where it hurts, RSF consolidated its grip on Darfur
The US House set to vote to release Epstein files
The House of Representatives will vote next week to compel the Justice Department to release the Epstein files, after a trove of documents this week further linked President Donald Trump with the late sex offender. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have opposed the bill, but are braced for scores of their party to vote for the release – potentially over 100, according to Politico. Their defections signal that representatives fear being seen as implicated in a cover up could come back to bite them ahead of 2026 Midterm elections. Polling shows that 67% of Republicans agree that the administration should release all the documents. However, even if the bill does pass, it is unlikely to make it out of the GOP-controlled Senate, or get the White House signature it needs to become law.
For Ukraine, is offense the best form of defense?
Ukraine is on the verge of losing another town in the eastern part of the country, and at a great cost, raising questions over whether it should spend so much defending these areas. What’s more, Russia hit several residential towers in Kyiv last night. But Ukraine did have a response, using drones and cruise missiles to strike Russia’s Novorossiysk port, which sits on the Black Sea, and halt exports of 2% of the whole world’s oil supply. Fittingly, crude prices rose 2% as a result. With Ukraine struggling to hold onto towns out east, is a better option to halt Russia a continuation of strikes deep inside enemy territory?
World’s worst war is about to get even worse
Sudan’s horrific civil war is set for a fresh escalation as the paramilitary forces battling the army look to open a new front. The Rapid Support Forces, having consolidated power in the West and the South – where they are accused of recent mass killings and acts of genocide – are now eyeing an eastward push to the Kordofan region. Sudan’s civil war, now in its third year, has already displaced at least 13 million people, forcing some four million into neighboring countries. Estimates of the death toll run to 400,000. The US yesterday called for an arms embargo against the RSF, but the effect is unclear: a recent Washington-brokered ceasefire disintegrated within days.
A fruit and vegetable stall is lit by small lamps during a blackout in a residential neighborhood in Kyiv, Ukraine, on November 6, 2025, after massive Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure in October.
Lights out in Ukraine, prices up in Europe
As a fourth winter of war approaches, Russia is destroying Ukraine’s energy grid faster than it can be rebuilt. “We lost everything we were restoring,” Centrenergo, one of Ukraine's largest power operators, said on Facebook following a devastating weekend assault that reduced the country's energy capacity to “zero.”
Since Sunday, most of Ukraine has been plunged into intermittent darkness as the government schedules rolling blackouts to preserve what little power remains. Russian drones and missiles have pummeled power plants, substations, and gas infrastructure in a relentless campaign that has intensified as temperatures drop. Further complicating the situation, Ukrainian authorities charged senior energy officials with a $100 million kickback scheme – which has outraged the public and raised concerns that graft could ward off desperately needed energy assistance from the European Union.
“Since the start of the war, Russia’s main objective in attacking civilian energy infrastructure is to demoralize the population and inflict economic damage,” says Eurasia Group analyst Dani Podogoretskaya. The targets extend beyond power facilities to hospitals, apartment buildings, schools, and kindergartens – all aimed at breaking Ukrainian resolve.
More than three years into the conflict, the strategy appears to be working, at least on paper. Some 69% of Ukrainians now say they are ready to settle for a negotiated end to the war, up sharply from just 22% in 2022. “This is exhausting for Ukrainians,” says Eurasia Group Russia expert Alex Brideau. “They are resisting, but it is taking a toll.”
Yet, with Vladimir Putin showing no signs of coming to the negotiating table, Ukrainians are simultaneously growing more resilient and resigned, adapting their lives to sustain the war effort. Many have purchased small generators to keep the lights on.
Ukraine's military isn't surrendering to the initiative either. Though far less frequent than the strikes they endure, Ukrainian forces have landed attacks deep inside Russia, targeting its energy infrastructure to bring the war home to ordinary Russians. “[This weekend’s] strikes have reinforced the imperative of fighting and winning,” says Podogoretskaya.
A chill across Europe. Ukraine’s energy crisis won’t remain contained within its borders. As the country’s ability for power generation collapses, it must turn to European neighbors for electricity and gas imports — a shift already reverberating through EU energy markets strained since Russia’s invasion.
The pressure is showing up in prices. German baseload electricity for January 2026 delivery has climbed nearly €10 per megawatt-hour in recent weeks, now exceeding €105/MWh and up from €94/MWh in November. Ukraine’s increased demand for imported power will continue pushing regional prices upward as winter deepens.
But the longer-term consequences may prove even more significant. Russia’s systematic destruction of Ukrainian energy infrastructure has poisoned any remaining prospects for cooperation. The idea of resuming Russian gas transit to Europe through Ukrainian pipelines – once a cornerstone of the continent’s energy supply – is now politically dead.
“Any transit arrangement would be viewed as rewarding Russia's deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure,” says Podogoretskaya. Ukrainian politicians, energy officials, and security experts are united in their opposition to serving as a conduit for Russian gas after watching their power sector and domestic production facilities reduced to rubble. This stance will shape European energy policy for years to come, cementing the EU’s pivot away from Russian energy dependence – even as the costs of that transition continue to mount.
Trump escalates sanctions against Russia
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer breaks down the changing dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war, where Europe is taking the lead in military support while the US adjusts its approach.
“This has gone from a war that the United States was providing most of the direct support to Ukraine to one where the Europeans are clearly taking the leadership role, and this is much more of an existential issue for them,” says Ian.
Meanwhile, the US has eased targeting restrictions, expanded intelligence sharing, and placed new oil sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies adding pressure even if it won’t shift the battlefield immediately.
But peace remains distant. Ukraine has signaled willingness for a ceasefire; Russia has not. “They’re demanding more territory and Ukrainian disarmament,” Ian warns. He says to expect incremental Russian gains, rising casualties, and the ongoing risk of the conflict spilling into NATO countries.
Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off?
President Trump has directly sanctioned Russia for the first time since retaking office, over President Putin's refusal to come to the negotiating table on Ukraine. It's a move aimed at weakening Putin’s war economy, says Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew, but one that could have ripple effects from Beijing to the US gas pump.
Trump is getting tough on Russian oil, but to have a real impact on Putin, he'll likely have to go further, which could undermine his big trade deals and push up gas prices. Here at home, US President Donald Trump is running out of patience with Vladimir Putin who refuses to return to the negotiating table for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Last week, Trump took the surprising step of putting sanctions on two of Russia's largest oil companies, the first time the US has directly sanctioned Russia since he became president. Now, in theory, these sanctions should prevent Russia from selling oil to its two biggest customers, India and China, who together take more than two-thirds of Russia's crude oil exports an important source of income for Putin's war in Ukraine. But as ever, the devil is in the details.
Russia has been facing sanctions and other Western measures to disrupt its crude exports for years now, and it will probably find a way around these new sanctions if the US doesn't keep up the pressure. That means more sanctions will be necessary, not just on Russia, but on its customers. Secondary sanctions on Indian and Chinese refiners who have been buying Russian crude would help cut off the flow, but there could be blowback. Sanctions could anger the Indian and Chinese governments, undermining Trump's efforts to secure big trade deals with Beijing and New Delhi.
And even if some or all of Russia's customers decide to stop taking its oil, Trump could feel the pain back at home. The disruptive impact on Russia's crude oil exports could push up oil prices, which would, in effect, raise the price of gasoline in the United States. That means that after this big initial blow, Trump is likely to take it slow. He'll look to India to voluntarily back away from Russian oil to the EU to put on some new sanctions of its own, and finally to Putin to return to the negotiating table or risk tougher sanctions ahead. As ever, Trump will look to accomplish his goals without causing a big shock to oil prices. It's a delicate balancing act that Trump will have to manage as he tries to avoid nasty economic shocks that could undermine his position back at home.
Troisi Theater in Fuorigrotta during the presentation of the Five Star Movement's candidate lists for the Campania region, with the presence of Presidential Candidate Roberto Fico and former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.
Hard Numbers: Italian pacifists stall EU ammo, Israel and Hamas at odds over hostage remains, Former Malian PM gets jail sentence, & More
13: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire again hangs by a thread as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the remains of an Israeli hostage returned overnight belonged to another body recovered by Israeli forces two years ago. The remains of 13 hostages remain in Gaza, Hamas says it is struggling to find their bodies amid the rubble.
2: A Malian court sentenced former Prime Minister Moussa Mara to two years in prison after he criticized the military government for harming the country’s democracy, Mara’s lawyer said on Monday. President Assimi Goïta has reportedly cracked down on dissent ever since seizing power in a 2021 coup.
18: An instant classic, last night’s game three of the World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays ran to an astounding 18 innings, lasting more than six hours before the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman hit a walk-off home run to win it. No word yet on how this affects frozen US-Canada trade talks.
14,000: Amazon will cut about 14,000 corporate jobs as it leans further into AI to streamline operations. The company plans more layoffs next year, citing over-hiring during the pandemic and broader plans to reshape Amazon’s workforce.
Trump and Putin’s Tomahawk song
This week’s song and dance over Ukraine. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more PUPPET REGIME!
A forensic expert examines the premises of a private kindergarten in the Kholodnohirskyi district hit by three Russian Shahed drones in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on October 22, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Russia bombs Ukraine after Trump cancels Putin meeting, US and Qatar object to EU climate law, Ireland expected to elect socialist president
Russia bombs Ukraine after second Trump-Putin date called off
Hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump canceled plans for a second meeting in Budapest, Russian forces hit Ukraine with missiles and drones, killing at least seven people, including two children. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky argued that the strikes showed Russia hadn’t come under enough pressure for its war, pointing indirectly to the US’s refusal to lend Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv. There had been some momentum for US-Russia talks following last week’s call between Trump and Putin, which the US leader called “very productive.” That has now dissipated, and Trump said yesterday he didn’t want to go ahead with a “wasted meeting.” Trump is, though, meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte today to discuss the war.
Proposed EU climate rules prompt warning from the US and Qatar
The Trump administration continues to be a thorn in the side of the European Union, this time teaming up with Qatar to warn the customs union of consequences to its trade, investment, and energy supplies if it follows through with a plan to introduce new environmental regulations. The joint US-Qatar letter to the EU referenced not only its supply of liquefied natural gas – a key import for Europe ever since it imposed sanctions on Russia – but also the US-EU trade deal that was struck in July. The proposed EU law will allow member states to impose large fines on firms whose supply chains damage the environment or human rights, and is set to be phased in from 2027. The group is exploring revisions to it this week.
Ireland set to pick opposition candidate for president
Irish voters will head to the polls to elect a new president on Friday, and left-wing contender Catherine Connolly has a resounding lead over the center-right Heather Humphreys in the polls. Connolly has reignited the left-wing opposition after it failed to break the center-right coalition’s century-long grip on power last year. Known for her pro-Palestinian stance and skepticism of the EU, Connolly’s election would put an independent voice – she doesn’t belong to any one party – into the largely ceremonial role.
The unseen wounds of war
We’re living in a time of record-high conflict, a level of violence not seen since World War II. The past four years have been marred by deadly battles in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, and beyond, with approximately 14% of the planet’s population now impacted by war.
While the more than 120 million people displaced by conflict have acute needs of safety, shelter, food, and education, there are needs unseen that too frequently go untreated.
A mental health crisis
In an unprecedented assessment this summer, UNICEF reported that 100% of children in Gaza are in need of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS.) While the pending peace deal could put an end to the physical violence, the road to true wellness will be long and complicated for all those who have survived.
Globally, there are an estimated 66 million people in humanitarian crises living with mental health conditions. And of the less than 0.029% of global GDP that goes to humanitarian assistance, only 2% of that amount goes to mental health services.
If untreated, the impacts of this trauma can contribute to higher rates of depression and anxiety, learning loss and disrupted education, and even self harm. Suicide is the top cause of death globally for people ages 15-29.
A Greentree plan grows
Last November, United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed urged a gathering of more than 50 mental health experts to focus on this issue.
“We need to put the head back on the body” in our approach to humanitarian aid, DSG Mohammed told us in her closing remarks. Treating the needs of the body is only one part of the equation—caring for the mind is a large part of keeping a person well.
Now, a year after that event, the United Nations has launched the Greentree Acceleration Plan, named for the venue where the retreat was convened. With $13.2 million in backing from the Wellcome Trust, the UN is embarking on two pilot programs, one in Chad where 40% of the population requires aid, and the other in Lebanon.
The goal is to find scalable solutions to bring better mental health care to more countries, communities, and conflict zones around the world.
A day for awareness
Today, on World Mental Health day, I wanted to share with you a conversation I recently had with actress Carey Mulligan and activist Jin Dawood on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, during an event where the Greentree Acceleration Plan was announced.
Mulligan is an ambassador for War Child, a UK-based charity that provides mental health care, education, and support to kids in conflict zones worldwide. Dawood, herself a former refugee and survivor of civil war in Syria, founded Peace Therapist to provide digital MHPSS services to children in Arabic, Kurdish, Turkish, and English.
Both shared personal stories of children in crisis they’ve met through their work, and the importance of raising awareness for mental health support long after a war has ended.
Over dozens of trips to troubled regions, Mulligan has seen first-hand the impact that MHPSS can have on a child’s life. “Part of that is giving children the right to a childhood,” she said. “But also, you cannot expect a country to rebuild itself if children are illiterate and traumatized.”
As Dawood explained, “That's why it's so important for people to be able to have therapy, to be able to rebuild themselves from inside and start the inner peace, and also contribute to building peace in the world.”
Watch my full conversation with Carey Mulligan and Jin Dawood above..