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Do nuclear weapons make a country safer?
Does acquiring nuclear weapons make your country safer? It’s a difficult question. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer looks back to the 1990s and a tale of two radically different nuclear—Ukraine and North Korea.
Ukraine inherited the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal after the Soviet collapse. They gave them up in 1994 in exchange for security assurances from the US, UK and Russia. But assurances aren't guarantees, and a decade later, Russia illegally annexed Crimea before launching its full-scale invasion in 2022. Meanwhile, North Korea abandoned diplomacy, pursued nuclear weapons, and lied to the world all along. Now it’s a global pariah, but the uncomfortable truth is nobody’s thinking of invading North Korea. So did Kyiv get played? Did Pyongyang make a smarter move? The contrast between Ukraine’s vulnerability and North Korea’s impunity seems stark. But the story is more complicated. Building nuclear weapons is a gamble, not a strategy. Watch Ian Explains to understand why and what it means for the growing nuclear threat in 2025.
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Reservists receive training during the annual Han Kuang military exercises in Taoyuan, Taiwan July 9, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Beijing calls Taiwan’s “bluff”, Copper prices soar, Russia breaks drone attack record (again), wildfire threatens France’s second city
22,000: Taiwan has mobilised 22,000 reservists to carry out its largest-ever military drills this week, with surface-to-air missiles and US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems as part of the maneuvers. When asked about the drills on Tuesday, the foreign ministry in Beijing – which considers self-governing Taiwan a part of China – called the exercises “nothing but a bluff.”
50%: US copper prices surged after President Donald Trump threatened on Tuesday to impose 50% tariffs on the metal. Copper is essential for home construction, car manufacturing, energy infrastructure, and data centers.
728: Russia launched a record 728 drones at Ukraine overnight, marking the third time in the last two weeks that Moscow has outdone itself. Last night’s attack came after Trump resumed shipments of critical air-defense weapons to Ukraine and declared he was tired of Putin’s “bullsh*t” on Tuesday.
400: A massive wildfire has reached the outskirts of Marseille, France’s second-largest city, prompting the evacuation of at least 400 people and injuring nine firefighters. At its peak, the fire spread at 1.2 kilometers per minute, driven by strong winds, dense vegetation, and steep terrain. Over 1,000 firefighters have been deployed to battle the blaze, which continues to threaten the area.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with U.S President Trump in the Hague during the NATO Summit on Wednesday June 25, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Ukraine to get key US weapons again, Trump makes fresh tariff threats, Afghan refugees under triple threat
Now Zelensky has a reason to say ‘thank you’
In a major White House U-turn, US President Donald Trump declared that his government would resume sending key defensive weapons – including Patriot missiles – to Ukraine. The move, which undoes a Pentagon order from last week to pause the shipments, is a big win for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as Ukraine has recently been suffering Russia’s worst aerial attacks of the entire war. The decision also reflects Trump’s growing impatience with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has rebuffed White House calls for meaningful talks on a ceasefire.
Trump’s latest tariff extravaganza
The Trump administration has announced a new schedule of tariffs on 14 countries, which appears to replace some of the “reciprocal tariffs” that he announced on April 2. While the rates are similar to those earlier ones – standouts include 25% rates on close US allies Japan and South Korea – Trump has also extended the deadline for negotiations from July 9 until Aug. 1. A preliminary deal with the EU, a major trading partner which has played a bit of hardball with Trump, is reportedly close, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said further announcements are due in the next 48 hours.Afghan refugees face triple deportation threat
Iran plans to deport at least one million more people back to their home country of Afghanistan, adding to the 1.2 million already deported from both Iran and Pakistan this year. The move is part of a larger crackdown on the millions of migrants from Afghanistan, many of them undocumented, who have fled war to settle in both countries over the past two decades. Meanwhile, Germany has also pledged to increase deportations to Afghanistan amid rising anti-immigrant sentiment. Aid groups warn that Afghanistan is ill-prepared to cope with the arrivals.Demonstrators with US and Ukrainian flags rally near the U.S. Capitol ahead of President Donald Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress in Washington, D.C., USA, on March 4, 2025.
Explainer: Why did the US cut off critical military support for Ukraine this week?
Earlier this week, the US cut shipments of a number of weapons to Ukraine, including Patriot interceptor missiles, a critical part of Kyiv’s air defenses. Here’s a short guide to making sense of why that happened, and how it could affect the course of the Russia-Ukraine war.
What is a Patriot interceptor? It’s one of the world’s most advanced air defenses, able to shoot ballistic missiles out of the sky. The US-made system is sold to nearly 20 countries, and was first given to Ukraine in early 2023. The Patriot’s main theaters of action are Ukraine as well as in the Middle East, where it has protected US forces and Israel from ballistic missiles launched by Iran or Iran-aligned groups.
Why did the US stop sending them to Ukraine? Low stockpiles, evidently. Nearly two years of intense use in both Ukraine and the Middle East have crushed supplies of Patriot missiles, of which only about 500 are made annually, and drawn resources away from other critical weapons systems as well.
After the Trump administration bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities ten days ago, for example, American forces fired the largest salvo of Patriots “in history” to repel Tehran’s (well-telegraphed) retaliatory airstrikes on the US base in Qatar. That may have pushed supplies below critical levels, raising concerns about broader US weapons production capacity.
Still, this is a message to Ukraine, right? Even if concern about scarcity was the primary motivation, US President Donald Trump – who won the election in part on promises to cut aid for Ukraine and force both sides into a “deal” – has clearly hit Kyiv with the short end of the stick here.
It’s worth noting that the decision to cut the shipments to Ukraine reportedly came from Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby, a prominent China hawk who sees support for Ukraine as a distraction from challenging Beijing.
And that’s not the only China connection in this story. Amid a growing trade and technology war with Washington, Beijing recently banned the US-bound export of certain minerals that are essential in weapons manufacturing. Among them were gallium, antimony, and germanium, critical components of various weapons and ammunition systems, including the Patriot.
“To me, this is the most interesting untold story,” says Eurasia Group research director Marc Gustafson, a former national security intelligence chief, “mostly because the Pentagon cannot talk about it. China’s bans have been crushing for the US defense industry, particularly regarding the weapons the US has been providing to Ukraine and Israel.”
How badly will this decision hurt Ukraine? Kyiv called the announcement a “total shock.” At a moment when Russia has been launching its most ferocious – and increasingly indiscriminate – aerial assaults of the entire war, losing the Patriots will leave Ukraine’s cities and civilians vastly more exposed to the Kremlin’s missiles and drones.
But the move will have less effect on Kyiv’s primary goal of simply holding off Russia at the front lines, says Alex Brideau, Eurasia Group’s top Ukraine and Russia expert. “It’s not a back breaker,” he says. Still, if the Trump administration cuts to conventional ammunition last for any length of time, Ukraine could be in more serious trouble fast.
Are NATO allies aligned on Iran?
On Ian Bremmer’s World in 180 Seconds: Ian unpacks US strikes on Iran, Russia’s stance on the conflict, and the future of the United Nations at 80.
Are US strikes on Iran exposing cracks in NATO? Not according to Ian Bremmer. In this week's World in :60, Ian says, “On Iran, NATO allies are pretty aligned. They consider Iran an implacable enemy... and don't support regime change.” Even with divergent views on Israel, NATO countries are backing US actions to counter Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
On Russia’s role? It’s complicated. While Russia could help Iran, Ian emphasizes that “what they don’t have is the willingness.” The Iran-Russia relationship remains transactional, "not strategic," and Moscow’s threats over recent strikes are “all bluster.”
Finally, as the UN marks its 80th anniversary, Ian reflects on its evolving role: “Having a forum where all countries… share information and understand each other better is becoming more important, not less.” It’s not global government, but it is a critical global resource.
Will Iran’s regime survive?
What’s next for Iran’s regime? Ian Bremmer says, “It’s much more likely that the supreme leader ends up out, but the military… continues to run the country.” Despite global speculation, real change will depend on the Iranian people, not foreign intervention, says Ian.
As attention shifts to the Middle East, Ukraine faces intensified Russian strikes with less international spotlight. Still, Ian notes NATO support remains “pretty solid,” and the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague will be a key signal of that.
And as China pushes for a multipolar currency system, Ian is skeptical: “It’s not premature to talk about multipolarity economically—it is in terms of a currency order.”
Rescuers carry a body at the site of an apartment building damaged during a Russian strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine June 17, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Russia pummels Kyiv, Deal or no deal, Budapest Pride Organizers Rebuff Orban
With world’s attention on Tehran, Russia launches huge attack on Kyiv
Russia last night carried out its deadliest attack yet on Kyiv this year, firing 440 drones and 32 missiles at the Ukrainian capital, knocking down a nine-story apartment building, killing 15 people, and injuring 156. With so much of the world’s attention fixed on the escalating Israel-Iran war, keep an eye on whether the fighting in Ukraine, where peace talks have gone nowhere, worsens significantly as well.
Deal or no deal, G7 edition
US President Donald Trump signed a trade deal with Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the G7 summit in Canada on Monday. The deal, first rolled out in May, lowers US tariffs on UK exports of cars and aerospace engines, in return for greater UK market access for US beef, ethanol, and industrial products. Other G7 members weren’t so lucky: Japan and the European Union both failed to strike a deal with the US, though Trump hinted that agreements with each could be in the works.
Rebuffing Orban, Budapest Set to Host Pride
Pride march is going full steam ahead in Hungary’s capital, despite Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz Party passing a law that empowers police to ban such ceremonies. Orban is a vociferous opponent of LGBTQ+ rights: He changed the country’s constitution such that it only recognizes two genders, and said Pride organizers “should not even bother” arranging a parade this year. The Pride event will take place on June 28 – we’ll be watching to see if Orban tries to preemptively halt it.
Is Serbia pivoting towards Ukraine?
In this episode of Europe in :60, Carl Bildt breaks down Serbia’s evolving foreign policy, and political developments in Poland.
After President Vučić’s visit to Ukraine, Bildt notes, “I think he is in the black book of the Kremlin because of that particular visit,” highlighting shifting alliances in the Balkans.
On Poland, following Donald Tusk’s post-election confidence vote, Bildt explains the challenges ahead: “The president can veto legislation, he can block important appointments.”
As Serbia weighs its EU path and Poland navigates internal politics, Bildt offers timely analysis on regional stability and European security affairs.