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Ukrainian central bank head Andriy Pryshnyy (right) at the 2024 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC. Oct. 23, 2024
Ukraine secures fifth round of IMF funding, but less talk of reconstruction
The International Monetary Fund announced Wednesday that Ukraine had successfully completed the fifth revision of its financing program and will receive $1.1 billion to support its non-military budget. This is a major achievement for Kyiv and has required extensive reforms while at war. It’s a war that has not gone well in the last year to boot, and talk about reconstruction — and the IMF and World Bank’s roles therein — has diminished as a result.
Notably absent from this year’s IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings is a marquee discussion of funding for Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva wrote that Ukraine’s “recovery is expected to slow amid headwinds from the impact of the attacks on energy infrastructure and the continuing war, while risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high.”
Ukraine’s central bank chief Andriy Pyshnyy emphasized the importance of contingency planning under such circumstances, and continuing reforms even if the military situation worsens. Ultimately, they will help Ukraine meet the standards necessary to join the EU — and Kyiv sees greater integration with the West as the best, if not only, way to achieve long-term security.
“Uncertainty is our new reality,” said Pyshnyy at a press event on Wednesday. He credited the IMF’s responsiveness and his own staff’s grit in helping the country overcome panic and anxiety when Russia invaded, and he has set in motion plans to increase the country’s financial resilience.
Maintaining public confidence in the banking system by making sure everyone can access their money when they need it is crucial to keeping the Ukrainian economy afloat. Ukraine’s banks are now capable of functioning in blackout conditions, which has prevented panic withdrawals. The violence has also left many Ukrainians disabled, which has led to changes Pyshnyy said he hopes will lead Ukraine’s “financial system to be the most accessible in the world.”
“We believe in our victory,” said Pyshnyy. “We believe that tomorrow can be better than today.”
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un attend a state reception in Pyongyang, North Korea June 19, 2024.
How will South Korea respond to North Korean troops in Russia?
The US on Wednesday confirmed that North Korea has troops in Russia. Though the nature of their mission is unclear, this marks a significant escalation that could see the Korean peninsula get involved in the war in Ukraine.
This comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned recently that North Korean troops could soon join Russian forces in the war against Ukraine. Seoul says roughly 3,000 North Korean troops are already in Russia with several thousand more promised to arrive.
Still, experts believe North Korean troops will have a limited impact on the ground.
“The number of troops is small relative to the numbers Russia has committed to the invasion,” says Alex Brideau, a Russia expert at Eurasia Group. While “an influx of new troops helps Russia maintain its offensive operations,” it’s unclear how many there will be or how they’ll be deployed.
But South Korea is not amused. It has warned Moscow it could begin supplying weapons to Kyiv — a step it’s avoided so far due to a policy against sending arms to countries actively involved in conflicts — as the Kremlin deepens ties with Pyongyang.
“South Korea is constrained both legally and politically from providing weapons directly to Ukraine — as it has threatened to do since the Putin-Kim summit in June — but could provide them indirectly through the US and Eastern European countries,” says Jeremy Chan, a Korea expert at Eurasia Group.
Seoul has also been reluctant to negatively impact long-term relations with Moscow, says Chan. But if it proceeds, he says, it has “world-class weaponry that could meaningfully change Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities.”
“South Korea’s top concern remains what support Russia is providing North Korea in return for the troops,” says Chan. “Technological assistance to Pyongyang’s ballistic and nuclear weapons capabilities remain the redline for South Korea, although there has not been any public confirmation of these transfers yet.”
Ukraine and the future of Europe
As Russia’s invasion rages on with no end in sight, Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance. Continued US support is far from guaranteed, and future policy toward Ukraine won't be clear until after the dust settles from the US election. Amid this uncertainty, the European Union has emerged as Ukraine’s strongest ally. The war is being fought only miles from EU borders and European leaders are working overtime to make sure the bloc is able to stand on its own, militarily and economically.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders, to ask about its path to EU membership and the future of Europe’s strategic autonomy. Despite Ukraine’s financial challenges, Metsola unequivocally believes European enlargement is a “win-win,” pointing to Poland’s successful trajectory after it joined the EU in 2004. There is still a lot of work to do to strengthen Europe’s voice on the global stage, Metsola admits, and the EU has a responsibility to show the world it can lead by example.
“We make it so difficult for countries to join the European Union, but then let the countries that are inside of Europe do whatever they like,” Metsola says, “We don't have rules to make sure that our basic tenets, fundamentals of democracy work.”
Watch the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Can Europe become a global superpower?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Can Europe become a global superpower?
It’s a critical time for Europe. In the recent European Union elections, voters unhappy with the establishment status quo delivered historic gains for far-right, nationalist parties in countries like France and Germany. But a fractured EU Parliament makes it harder for the ruling centrist coalition to deliver on key priorities like immigration reform and the Green deal. Can the 27 member states come together to address big challenges?
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola discusses Europe’s future amid an ongoing migrant crisis, the war in Ukraine, and an economic slowdown. The EU is the world’s largest trading bloc and a regulatory superpower, but Metsola says Europe needs to strengthen its strategic autonomy to avoid getting squeezed by the US and China. Part of that vision includes Ukraine joining the European Union, which Metsola tells Bremmer is unequivocably “win-win” for both sides. But finding consensus among so many countries, cultures, and political parties in the EU government can be a major challenge.
“We’re not yet coherent, I think we've weakened ourselves by being a cacophony of what we think we want,” Metsola says, "We still have not, as a European Union, become better as a whole than individual countries.“
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Envisioning Europe's path forward with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola
The European Union is at a crossroads. Big issues, like Russia’s Ukraine invasion, a migrant crisis, and an economic slowdown coming out of the Covid pandemic have been major tests of the bloc’s resilience and unity. There’s a lot at stake. Can the EU’s 27 member states hold it all together? On this week’s episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with the woman at the heart of Europe’s government: European Parliament President Roberta Metsola. They discuss Europe’s path forward, its role on the world stage, and how a fragmented EU avoids being squeezed by the US and China. Metsola admits that, on China policy in particular, the bloc’s “biggest problem is we have not been coherent" and says a unified EU strategy toward China has (so far) been “absent” from policy discussions. So where does Europe go from here? In a wide-ranging discussion, Bremmer and Metsola dig into the EU’s push for strategic autonomy, rising far-right nationalism in recent EU elections, and whether Ukraine will be able to join the bloc anytime soon, even as Russia’s war rages on.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.Elon Musk waves to the crowd before former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Butler, Pa., on Oct. 5, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Musk becomes GOP mega-donor, Biden announces new military aid for Ukraine, Mysterious white blobs turn up on Canadian beaches, Archdiocese of LA to pay millions in childhood sexual abuse settlement
75 million: Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, gave $75 million to America PAC — a pro-Trump super PAC that he established back in May — across July and September, a campaign finance filing showed on Tuesday. This makes Musk, who endorsed former President Donald Trump in July and has since appeared on the campaign trail with him, a Republican mega-donor.
425 million: President Joe Biden announced a new $425 million military aid package for Ukraine on Wednesday and spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The package includes “additional air defense capability, air-to-ground munitions, armored vehicles, and critical munitions to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs,” the White House said, adding that Zelensky spoke with the president about his victory plan and “tasked their teams to engage in further consultations on next steps.”
40,000: In news that is both gross and captivating, mysterious white blobs are washing up on beaches in Newfoundland. So far, marine scientists seem stumped, and authorities are investigating the blobs’ origins and whether they’re safe to touch. A Facebook group of roughly 40,000 people, Beachcombers of Newfoundland and Labrador, helped bring attention to these blobs of unknown origin.
880 million: The Archdiocese of Los Angeles — the largest Catholic dioceses in the US — is paying $880 million in a childhood sexual abuse settlement involving over 1,300 claims, including some that go back to the 1940s. “I am sorry for every one of these incidents, from the bottom of my heart,” Archbishop José H. Gomez wrote in a letter. “My hope is that this settlement will provide some measure of healing.”Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addresses lawmakers as he presents the so-called 'Victory Plan' during a parliament session, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine October 16, 2024.
Zelensky lays out his “victory plan” at home and in Europe
On Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky presented his much-discussed “victory plan” to Ukraine’s parliament. On Thursday, he’ll discuss it at a European summit. This “peace through strength” plan has five central elements:
- Ukraine is invited to join NATO.
- Allies help strengthen Ukraine’s military, give it permission to use the long-range weapons they provide against targets inside Russia, and allow Ukrainian forces to continue their occupation of parts of Russian territory until Vladimir Putin agrees to negotiate.
- Ukraine and its allies use a non-nuclear strategic deterrent package to contain Russian aggression.
- The US and EU agree to protect Ukraine’s critical natural resources.
- After the war ends, Ukrainian troops replace some US troops stationed across Europe.
Zelensky said there are also secret parts of the plan to be shared only with key allies.
For now, much of this roadmap remains unrealistic. Most NATO leaders remain cautious about any action that might persuade Putin to expand the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders.
By articulating what Zelensky believes it would take for Ukraine to earn “victory” – the complete withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian land – he’s again warning his country’s allies that Russia must be forced to the bargaining table.
By insisting this plan could lead to victory “by next year,” he hopes to increase Ukrainian public confidence that its forces can still win.
But Zelensky’s presentation also implies to Ukraine’s lawmakers and the country’s people that unless the country’s “partners” ensure these conditions are met, Ukraine will eventually have to offer concessions of its own – including a de facto recognition that Russia will keep at least some of the land its forces now occupy – if peace is to be achieved.
Andrei Belousov, Russia's Defence Minister, attends a meeting with Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of China's Central Military Commission, in Beijing, China, in this still image taken from video released on October 15, 2024.
Russia and China put on a brave face in defense meeting
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousovmet with China’s top civilian defense official Zhang Youxia on Tuesday in Beijing, where both sides pledged to “continue working closely” to deepen military relations. However, the “no limits” partnership Beijing and Moscow committed to two years ago is proving unworthy of the moniker.
For one, China has proven reluctant to provide Russia with the weapons and shells it wants to wage war in Ukraine. Even Beijing’s more restrained shipments of “dual use” goods — civilian items with military applications like computer chips, machine components, and navigation equipment — has attracted opprobrium from the US and Europe.
But China isn’t just losing leverage with Russia and the US: North Korea has been happy to step in and send Russia approximately half the shells it uses in Ukraine, and even reportedly deploy troops to the battlefield. Beijing isn’t willing to match Pyongyang — or, evidently, rein them in.
All eyes are now on next week’s BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, where Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin will meet. China would like to show a united front at the big international conference, but the expansion of the group’s membership to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (and also kinda sorta Saudi Arabia) makes it hard to get on the same page about any given geopolitical issue. We’re watching how they talk about Ukraine next week.