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Trump bets big on Russian oil sanctions, but will it pay off?
President Trump has directly sanctioned Russia for the first time since retaking office, over President Putin's refusal to come to the negotiating table on Ukraine. It's a move aimed at weakening Putin’s war economy, says Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew, but one that could have ripple effects from Beijing to the US gas pump.
Trump is getting tough on Russian oil, but to have a real impact on Putin, he'll likely have to go further, which could undermine his big trade deals and push up gas prices. Here at home, US President Donald Trump is running out of patience with Vladimir Putin who refuses to return to the negotiating table for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Last week, Trump took the surprising step of putting sanctions on two of Russia's largest oil companies, the first time the US has directly sanctioned Russia since he became president. Now, in theory, these sanctions should prevent Russia from selling oil to its two biggest customers, India and China, who together take more than two-thirds of Russia's crude oil exports an important source of income for Putin's war in Ukraine. But as ever, the devil is in the details.
Russia has been facing sanctions and other Western measures to disrupt its crude exports for years now, and it will probably find a way around these new sanctions if the US doesn't keep up the pressure. That means more sanctions will be necessary, not just on Russia, but on its customers. Secondary sanctions on Indian and Chinese refiners who have been buying Russian crude would help cut off the flow, but there could be blowback. Sanctions could anger the Indian and Chinese governments, undermining Trump's efforts to secure big trade deals with Beijing and New Delhi.
And even if some or all of Russia's customers decide to stop taking its oil, Trump could feel the pain back at home. The disruptive impact on Russia's crude oil exports could push up oil prices, which would, in effect, raise the price of gasoline in the United States. That means that after this big initial blow, Trump is likely to take it slow. He'll look to India to voluntarily back away from Russian oil to the EU to put on some new sanctions of its own, and finally to Putin to return to the negotiating table or risk tougher sanctions ahead. As ever, Trump will look to accomplish his goals without causing a big shock to oil prices. It's a delicate balancing act that Trump will have to manage as he tries to avoid nasty economic shocks that could undermine his position back at home.
Troisi Theater in Fuorigrotta during the presentation of the Five Star Movement's candidate lists for the Campania region, with the presence of Presidential Candidate Roberto Fico and former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.
Hard Numbers: Italian pacifists stall EU ammo, Israel and Hamas at odds over hostage remains, Former Malian PM gets jail sentence, & More
13: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire again hangs by a thread as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the remains of an Israeli hostage returned overnight belonged to another body recovered by Israeli forces two years ago. The remains of 13 hostages remain in Gaza, Hamas says it is struggling to find their bodies amid the rubble.
2: A Malian court sentenced former Prime Minister Moussa Mara to two years in prison after he criticized the military government for harming the country’s democracy, Mara’s lawyer said on Monday. President Assimi Goïta has reportedly cracked down on dissent ever since seizing power in a 2021 coup.
18: An instant classic, last night’s game three of the World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays ran to an astounding 18 innings, lasting more than six hours before the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman hit a walk-off home run to win it. No word yet on how this affects frozen US-Canada trade talks.
14,000: Amazon will cut about 14,000 corporate jobs as it leans further into AI to streamline operations. The company plans more layoffs next year, citing over-hiring during the pandemic and broader plans to reshape Amazon’s workforce.
Trump and Putin’s Tomahawk song
This week’s song and dance over Ukraine. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more PUPPET REGIME!
A forensic expert examines the premises of a private kindergarten in the Kholodnohirskyi district hit by three Russian Shahed drones in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on October 22, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Russia bombs Ukraine after Trump cancels Putin meeting, US and Qatar object to EU climate law, Ireland expected to elect socialist president
Russia bombs Ukraine after second Trump-Putin date called off
Hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump canceled plans for a second meeting in Budapest, Russian forces hit Ukraine with missiles and drones, killing at least seven people, including two children. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky argued that the strikes showed Russia hadn’t come under enough pressure for its war, pointing indirectly to the US’s refusal to lend Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv. There had been some momentum for US-Russia talks following last week’s call between Trump and Putin, which the US leader called “very productive.” That has now dissipated, and Trump said yesterday he didn’t want to go ahead with a “wasted meeting.” Trump is, though, meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte today to discuss the war.
Proposed EU climate rules prompt warning from the US and Qatar
The Trump administration continues to be a thorn in the side of the European Union, this time teaming up with Qatar to warn the customs union of consequences to its trade, investment, and energy supplies if it follows through with a plan to introduce new environmental regulations. The joint US-Qatar letter to the EU referenced not only its supply of liquefied natural gas – a key import for Europe ever since it imposed sanctions on Russia – but also the US-EU trade deal that was struck in July. The proposed EU law will allow member states to impose large fines on firms whose supply chains damage the environment or human rights, and is set to be phased in from 2027. The group is exploring revisions to it this week.
Ireland set to pick opposition candidate for president
Irish voters will head to the polls to elect a new president on Friday, and left-wing contender Catherine Connolly has a resounding lead over the center-right Heather Humphreys in the polls. Connolly has reignited the left-wing opposition after it failed to break the center-right coalition’s century-long grip on power last year. Known for her pro-Palestinian stance and skepticism of the EU, Connolly’s election would put an independent voice – she doesn’t belong to any one party – into the largely ceremonial role.
The unseen wounds of war
We’re living in a time of record-high conflict, a level of violence not seen since World War II. The past four years have been marred by deadly battles in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, and beyond, with approximately 14% of the planet’s population now impacted by war.
While the more than 120 million people displaced by conflict have acute needs of safety, shelter, food, and education, there are needs unseen that too frequently go untreated.
A mental health crisis
In an unprecedented assessment this summer, UNICEF reported that 100% of children in Gaza are in need of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS.) While the pending peace deal could put an end to the physical violence, the road to true wellness will be long and complicated for all those who have survived.
Globally, there are an estimated 66 million people in humanitarian crises living with mental health conditions. And of the less than 0.029% of global GDP that goes to humanitarian assistance, only 2% of that amount goes to mental health services.
If untreated, the impacts of this trauma can contribute to higher rates of depression and anxiety, learning loss and disrupted education, and even self harm. Suicide is the top cause of death globally for people ages 15-29.
A Greentree plan grows
Last November, United Nations Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed urged a gathering of more than 50 mental health experts to focus on this issue.
“We need to put the head back on the body” in our approach to humanitarian aid, DSG Mohammed told us in her closing remarks. Treating the needs of the body is only one part of the equation—caring for the mind is a large part of keeping a person well.
Now, a year after that event, the United Nations has launched the Greentree Acceleration Plan, named for the venue where the retreat was convened. With $13.2 million in backing from the Wellcome Trust, the UN is embarking on two pilot programs, one in Chad where 40% of the population requires aid, and the other in Lebanon.
The goal is to find scalable solutions to bring better mental health care to more countries, communities, and conflict zones around the world.
A day for awareness
Today, on World Mental Health day, I wanted to share with you a conversation I recently had with actress Carey Mulligan and activist Jin Dawood on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, during an event where the Greentree Acceleration Plan was announced.
Mulligan is an ambassador for War Child, a UK-based charity that provides mental health care, education, and support to kids in conflict zones worldwide. Dawood, herself a former refugee and survivor of civil war in Syria, founded Peace Therapist to provide digital MHPSS services to children in Arabic, Kurdish, Turkish, and English.
Both shared personal stories of children in crisis they’ve met through their work, and the importance of raising awareness for mental health support long after a war has ended.
Over dozens of trips to troubled regions, Mulligan has seen first-hand the impact that MHPSS can have on a child’s life. “Part of that is giving children the right to a childhood,” she said. “But also, you cannot expect a country to rebuild itself if children are illiterate and traumatized.”
As Dawood explained, “That's why it's so important for people to be able to have therapy, to be able to rebuild themselves from inside and start the inner peace, and also contribute to building peace in the world.”
Watch my full conversation with Carey Mulligan and Jin Dawood above..
President Macron is down but not out
Everybody thinks President Emmanuel Macron is on political life support, but Eurasia Group's Mujtaba Rahman has spent a week in Paris and he thinks Macron has a way out.
I'm standing in front of La Rotonde, which is the restaurant where Emmanuel Macron celebrated his win in 2017. That seems like a really long time ago given the absolute political and fiscal chaos that's engulfed France and Macron's presidency over the course of the last one-plus years. Tomorrow, Emmanuel Macron is going to appoint his fourth prime minister in a year and a bit. And even though we don't know who the identity of that prime minister is, here's why I think it might stick.
Macron came very close to pulling an early election this week. In that focused mind, Macron doesn't want an early election, and really no MPs in Parliament wants an early election, except the far right, because they are France's most popular party and they would win that early election. In combination with the fact Macron is now willing to potentially reverse an increase in the retirement age, there may be enough there for restless MPs to do a deal and put this crisis to bed.
Now, the crisis doesn't just matter for France, it also matters for Europe. France is the Euro area's second-largest economy, it's a G7 country, a nuclear power, and across all the major foreign policy issues of our time, the French have been a leading player. It's about the global role he's playing in the world at a time when the US is withdrawing and there are existential and important questions hanging over the future of Gaza, the future of Ukraine where he has been a leading voice. The outcome of this crisis matters way beyond France's borders. It's also going to have really important implications for the rest of the world.
Boys wearing red caps with the slogan "Strong Czechia" in front of a poster of Andrej Babiš, Czech billionaire, former prime minister and leader of ANO party, during a campaign rally in Prague.
"Czech Trump" prepares for return in elections
As you read this, the Czech Republic is heading into an election that could shift the foreign policy of one of Ukraine’s staunchest backers in the EU.
The frontrunner in pre-election polls, with about 30% support, is populist billionaire Andrej Babiš, a former Prime Minister who was in power from 2017 to 2021.
Babiš, whose ANO party (which stands for “Action of Dissatisfied Citizens” but also spells the Czech word for “Yes”) has shifted rightward in recent years – blasting Brussels’ green initiatives and immigration policies, while also raising questions about the extent of the Czech Republic’s support for Ukraine.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Prague has been at the forefront of efforts to arm Kyiv, leading a NATO-wide ammunition initiative and sending the country tens of millions of dollars in government support annually.
Babiš himself is a controversial figure. A Slovak-born businessman who made his fortune in the agriculture industry, he has been plagued by accusations that he collaborated with the secret police during the Communist period, and has been investigated for EU subsidy fraud and conflict of interest.
Sometimes called the “Czech Trump” – his supporters often sport bright red “Czechia Strong” hats – Babiš has an uncanny ability to identify and express what Czechs are upset about.
“He is like a sunflower,” says Jan Rafael Lupoměský, a former Czech presidential adviser and founder of LupoKorn, a regional political analysis outfit. “He is always turning his head towards the sun of political support from unhappy citizens.”
These days, he has much to orient himself towards. The Czech economy, once the “tiger” of the former Eastern bloc, has stagnated. Concerns about the war in Ukraine are rising. Although almost no one wishes to see a Russian victory – Czechs still remember the devastating Soviet invasion of their own country in 1968 – nearly two-thirds of the country now worries that the conflict will drag on indefinitely. Just 44% hope for an outright Ukrainian victory.
Immigration is also an issue, in part because of uneasiness about EU asylum policies, but also because of the Ukraine war. The Czech Republic, with just 11 million people, has absorbed the highest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita of any country in the world.
Faced with all of this, the current government, a hodgepodge of center-right parties led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala, has dropped the ball.
After taking power in 2021 almost accidentally – Babiš’s party actually won the vote but had no viable coalition partners – Fiala promised good government and big reforms after a slew of pandemic-era upheavals under Babiš. But while Fiala’s strong support for Ukraine was popular, he accomplished little else, especially on the economy.
“They didn't change anything,” says Lupoměský. “They didn't put through any important reforms. They just didn't meet expectations.”
They have also failed to communicate well. Although most Czech support for Ukraine has been compensated by EU or NATO – and has boosted the country’s elite arms industry – Babiš has argued that that support for Ukraine comes at the expense of putting “Czechia First.”
As a result, Fiala’s approval rating has plunged to barely 30%, one of the lowest in Europe. Support for his coalition trails ANO by more than ten points among likely voters.
Babiš will need partners to govern. For all his political wiles, he has never cracked 30% support. That means he’ll need to form a coalition. The roster of potential post-election tie-ups in this election includes several virulently anti-EU and anti-NATO parties that have surged on both the far left and far right.
And given Babiš’s increasing coziness with Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico – the EU’s two most Russia-friendly leaders – that has stoked concerns about where he might take Czech foreign policy in an EU that relies on unanimity for key decisions.
Still, Lupoměský says, Babiš is more pragmatic than ideological, and that could end up leading to more continuity than many fear.
“He's a businessman,” he notes, “and his business is mostly in Western countries, so he has a big personal interest in keeping those good relations.”
The polls close on Saturday evening. Which way will the Czech sunflower turn after that?
PUPPET REGIME: Putin hears he will lose all of Ukraine
Laughter is cleanser. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more PUPPET REGIME here!