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Egypt's path to economic stability with Rania Al-Mashat
As a landmark Gaza ceasefire reshapes Middle East stability, what does it mean for Egypt’s growth outlook?
Egypt’s Minister of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation, Rania Al-Mashat tells GZERO’s Tony Maciulis the deal is “a monumental moment” and durable. “There’s no development without stability and peace,” she says, citing urgent Gaza reconstruction.
Despite recent changes, Egypt achieved a 5% economic growth, fueled by strategic reforms and a robust tourism sector. Highlighting progress, Al-Mashat shared Egypt's success in attracting over $17 billion in private sector investment, focusing on key industries like ICT and manufacturing. She notes, “Our economy has been rebounding, recovering very steadily.”
This conversation is presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical discussions on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Trump brokers peace: Hostages freed and guns fall silent in Gaza
A landmark moment in the Middle East: All 20 remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas have been released, and a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been signed—brokered by President Trump.
Ian Bremmer calls it “a big win” for the president. “He had leverage, and he used it,” Ian says. “It’s much better to say your president succeeded than failed—and this is a success.”
The deal, backed by Egypt, Turkey, and Gulf states, halts two years of fighting. But as Ian notes, “lasting peace will depend on reconstruction, governance, and whether both sides can hold to their word.”
Trump's Middle East Love Triangle
President Trump has given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu free rein on Gaza longer than many of us expected. But Israel is not America's only Middle East partner. Is Trump now willing to pressure Netanyahu to salvage and expand ties with his Gulf allies? Eurasia Group's Firas Maksad breaks it down.
Netanyahu's visit to the Oval Office last week and the major announcement of a Gaza Peace Plan is what stole all the media headlines. But for me, the biggest story was Trump's commitment to another Middle Eastern ally, and here's why. In September, Israel undertook an unprecedented strike against an Arab Gulf capital in Doha, Qatar trying to get at Hamas officials. It failed, and what he ended up doing is putting President Trump in a bind. Saudi Arabia was quick to react. It signed a mutual defense deal with the Pakistanis, effectively extending Pakistan's nuclear umbrella to the Arab Gulf. Egypt and Turkey also reacted very quickly, papering over past differences and launching joint naval exercises just off the Israeli coast in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Trump's ties to these Arab nations run deep. He chose Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE as the first foreign destination for his visit, not only in the first term, but also more recently in his second term. During these trips, he signed billions of dollars worth of contracts in foreign investments, tech, defense, energy, and other fields. Up until this week, President Trump had actually done very little to rein in Israel. He's allowed it to operate freely, not only in Gaza, but also in Lebanon and Syria really culminating with that attack in Doha, Qatar. But he now understands that he also needs to manage relations with these critical Arab Gulf allies, otherwise, that will undermine the business deals and the security relationship that he has with that part of the world.
So will President Trump be able to maintain that critical balancing act between America's Arab allies and Israel on the one hand, or would it all come apart in the lead-up to the crucial visit of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House in November? We'll have to wait and see.
View of Tehran at sunset on February 26th, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Iranian water shortages prompt public holiday, Trump admin to burn contraceptives, Ozzy leaves the stage for the last time, & More
1: Iran announced an impromptu one-day public holiday on Wednesday for Tehran’s residents, in an effort to save on water and electricity. Intense heatwaves have added strain to an already-worsening water crisis in the country, brought about by climate change and mismanagement.
$10 million: The Trump administration will incinerate nearly $10 million worth of US-funded contraceptives – intended for poorer nations – in France, after storing them for months in a Belgian warehouse following cuts to USAID programs. The White House reportedly rejected offers from the United Nations and other NGOs to buy or distribute the supplies themselves.
$4 billion: A Saudi business delegation arrived in Syria on Wednesday, where it is expected to sign $4 billion worth of joint projects and deals with Damascus. Riaydh has been a key financial backer in Syria’s post-war rebuilding efforts.
100: Over 100 humanitarian organizations issued a joint statement on Wednesday calling on governments to take decisive action against mass starvation in Gaza. Demanding an immediate and permanent ceasefire, the statement warns that Israel’s partial aid blockade on the enclave has left assistance workers – alongside Palestinian civilians – “wasting away.”
76: Heavy metal pioneer Ozzy Osbourne died at 76 on Tuesday. Just weeks ago, the ailing rock icon held a final reunion concert with Black Sabbath, the supergroup that he started as a young lad in Birmingham, United Kingdom, more than half a century ago. So long Oz, may the Crazy Train keep chugging on into eternity.
Smoke rises after Israeli strikes on Syria’s defense ministry, according to Al Jazeera TV, in Damascus, Syria, on July 16, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Israel hits Syria’s military HQ, Trump rings up trade wins, Cuban minister resigns over denial
Israel strikes Damascus as feud escalates
Israel struck Syria’s military headquarters in Damascus on Wednesday and continued to bomb areas of southern Syria where the Israel-backed Druze minority group is clashing with Bedouin tribes whom Israel says are being supported by the Syrian regime. The escalation risks further undermining Syria’s fragile post-Assad stability. Meanwhile, Israel also launched its deadliest strike on Lebanon since last year’s ceasefire, killing five Hezbollah fighters as it tries to pressure the militant group to disarm. For more on whether that could ever happen, see here.
Trump’s trade policy gathers some momentum
US President Donald Trump’s efforts to strike trade deals may finally be gathering momentum. The White House on Tuesday announced a deal with Indonesia, its first since Trump sent letters to several major trade partners threatening higher tariffs by Aug. 1. US-China tensions also appear to be easing slightly after Washington rescinded its export restrictions on AI chips. Meanwhile in Canada, Washington’s second-biggest trade partner, Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged that he’ll have to accept some US tariffs in order to reach a deal with Trump, a sign that he too may be ready to strike a trade pact.
Cuban minister resigns after denying existence of beggars
Ignorance is strength, as the slogan from George Orwell’s “1984” goes, and beggars don’t exist – at least not according to Cuban Labor Minister Marta Elena Feitó Cabrera. Her comments sparked a rare public backlash, forcing her to resign. Communist-led Cuba has been suffering from an especially painful economic crisis recently, with frequent blackouts, rising levels of poverty and hunger, and even shortages of basic medicines. The pain is so bad that at least 10% of the island’s population has fled since 2022.
Hezbollah beat on their chests as a sign of mourning during a mass rally to mark Ashoura, commemorating the martyrdom of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson Hussein.
The Lebanese government wants Hezbollah to disarm – will it?
On Wednesday, the Trump administration’s envoy to Lebanon, Tom Barrack, received a stunning proposal from the Lebanese government– a plan to disarm Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed Shia militia group that has dominated Lebanon’s politics and fought two major wars with Israel over the past 20 years. The process would occur over the next four months, in exchange for Israel halting strikes on Lebanon and withdrawing from the country’s South.
If Hezbollah were to drop its weapons it would redefine the Middle East virtually overnight. But can the Lebanese government really turn this proposal into reality?
On the one hand, Hezbollah has never been weaker. Over the past year and a half, Israel has decimated the group’s leadership and destroyed a great deal of its weapons. The collapse of the Assad regime, a key ally, upended a major smuggling route for weapons from Iran. And the regime in Tehran itself has been hobbled by the recent Israeli and American airstrikes.
Hezbollah has not publicly responded to the proposal, but is reportedly at least considering shrinking its arsenal. However, according to Eurasia Group’s Middle East expert Firas Maksad, “Hezbollah could just be buying time” by appearing open to diplomacy, hoping that the winds in the region shift back in its direction.
Why does the Lebanese government want Hezbollah to disarm? Hezbollah, which enjoys support from Lebanon’s sizable Shia population, is a major challenge to the Lebanese government. The group dominates South Lebanon, providing social services to the population, and it makes decisions about war and peace in the conflict against Israel without the national government’s consent.
“With the exception of Hezbollah’s support base, most Lebanese very much would like to see strengthened state authority and control over weapons,” says Maksad.
They aren’t the only ones. Wealthy international donors, including the US and the Gulf Arab monarchies, have made it clear that desperately needed financial and reconstruction aid won’t flow to the Lebanese government while a powerful armed group like Hezbollah operates effectively beyond state control.
What would it take for them to disarm? Hezbollah and its supporters in South Lebanon see its arsenal as a protection of Shia interests in Lebanon’s fragile sectarian balance, as well as a defense against Israel. Among many in the Shia community, Maksad explains, “any attempt to try and take away the weapons [is seen as] meant to undermine the community.”
He added that real disarmament would require, at a minimum, Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon under the terms of ceasefire agreements reached last November.
“There is this sense in Beirut, reflective of Hezbollah’s thinking, that Israel would need to fulfill its side of the obligations before more can be expected,” says Maksad.
But that sets up an impasse: Israel’s position is that it can’t leave Southern Lebanon while an Iran-backed militia is dug in there with weapons pointed at the Jewish state.
So where do things go from here? Maksad says there are two scenarios. One is a slow, drawn-out process where Hezbollah makes limited concessions under the guise of diplomatic dialogue — but without any real, comprehensive disarmament.
The other involves Israel forcing the issue. With its campaign in Gaza winding down, Israel may now look northward again, making a fresh effort to weaken Hezbollah so much that the group has no choice but to surrender.
At the moment, that looks like the way things are headed – Israel on Wednesday night launched a limited attack into South Lebanon, and its attacks on Hezbollah’s territory have ramped up in recent weeks. That almost certainly puts the prospect of a negotiated disarmament further out of reach in the near term.
“I don’t see diplomacy right now providing the required results of fully disarming Hezbollah,” Maksad warns.
Members of the Basij paramilitary force hold Iranian flag, Lebanese flag, and various militia flags, during a rally commemorating International Quds Day in downtown Tehran, April 14, 2023.
Q + A: Is this the end of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance?”
As the world reacted to Israel and the US bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities last week, one group was largely silent – Iran’s network of allied militias in the Middle East.
Since the 1980s, Tehran has cultivated what it calls an “Axis of Resistance” – a network of groups closely aligned with its agenda, encompassing Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen.
In a sharp contrast to the weeks after October 7th, when Hezbollah and the Houthis launched missiles at Israel in solidarity with Hamas and the Palestinian people, this time around, the militias have not joined the fray.
Hezbollah reportedly has no plans to strike Israel right now. Hamas and the Houthis have done nothing despite vowing to respond against “Zionist-American aggression.”
The relative silence this time around reflects in part how much weaker some of these groups are. Hezbollah and Hamas in particular have been decimated by Israel over the past year and a half. But it also reflects Iran’s overall diminished position in the region. Last December, Iran suffered another blow with the demise of the closely-allied Assad regime in Syria.
So where does Iran’s 'Axis of Resistance' stand today? Is this relative silence temporary or permanent? And how might all of this affect a region where Iran has until recently been a major strategic player?
To find out, we asked two experts, with somewhat clashing views. Lina Khatib, a visiting scholar at Harvard Kennedy School’s Middle East Initiative, and Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow and project director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House. Their responses have been lightly edited for clarity and concision.
GZERO: Are we witnessing the end of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”?
Khatib: “The whole model of Iran's presence in the region has permanently changed…the Axis of Resistance, as Iran calls it, has crumbled in terms of it being a network. What we are left with are the individual groups, each struggling for survival in the country in which it operates…Iran is now fighting Israel and the United States on its own, its proxies are unable and unwilling to help it.”
Mansour: “For the time being, Iran is overstretched and looking to survive right now internally…but the connectivity will continue to be there to some extent…what remains of the axis has transitioned into more of a horizontal, non-hierarchical network – where Iran is still important – but the different groups have also begun to take on leadership roles.”
GZERO: With Iran’s decades-long dominance now diminished, how will the balance of power shift in the Middle East?
Khatib: “What we will see is an increased importance for the Gulf countries in the Arab world, in terms of being the heart of power in the Middle East, influencing where the rest of the region will head.”
Mansour: “It's hard to see whether there will be a hegemonic force…what we're looking at moving forward is a fragmented Middle East where you have multi-alignment, where you have different sides working with each other…based on different issues, where you don't really have clear spheres of influence.”
GZERO: What does this mean for regional stability moving forward?
Khatib: “Without Iran and its proxies, there will be less sectarian tension in the region and a greater possibility for cross-country cooperation in the Middle East, and therefore increased stability…[though this still] depends on whether Israel agrees to restart the peace process regarding Israel Palestine.”
Mansour: “There's so much unexpected, so much more violence that will happen before this comes to an end…[when] the US had overwhelming force and they went to war against Iraq or Afghanistan, would they have thought that this would actually facilitate the rise of their big enemy, Iran?”
Young Iranian female protesters shout anti-U.S. and anti-Israeli slogans while participating in a protest to condemn the U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities in downtown Tehran, Iran, on June 22, 2025, amid the Iran-Israel war.
What’s next for Iran?
The United States is back at war in the Middle East: Late Saturday evening, the US military unleashed 75 precision-guided weapons, including 14 “bunker-buster” bombs, against Iran’s Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites. Israel followed up by hitting Fordo’s access routes on Monday. US President Donald Trump is now openly contemplating regime change.
It’s not yet clear how much damage has been done to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Trump hailed the operation and said that the US had “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, but Vice President JD Vance said Sunday the White House is going “to ensure that we do something with that fuel,” tacitly acknowledging that the Islamic Republic may still retain supplies of enriched uranium. Tehran, for its part, said it had already moved fuel and key technology away from the key nuclear sites before they were bombed.
How Might Iran Retaliate? Tehran called for revenge, but it’s not yet clear what that looks like. The original Israel-Iran war continues, as the two sides traded barrages of ballistic missiles over the weekend. Whether the US becomes further intertwined is another matter. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned in a post on X that the US attacks “will have everlasting consequences” and that Tehran “reserves all options.” Those include:
- Closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran could sow undersea mines, ban patrols, or harass tankers by quickboat to halt travel in the Strait, which would cripple roughly 20% of global oil transit and send prices soaring – prices are already edging up in anticipation of the strait’s closure. But Tehran would also pay the economic price of withholding its chief export, which US Secretary of State Marco Rubio qualified as “economic suicide.” Iran’s parliament seems unfazed: it voted on Sunday to back a plan to close the Strait of Hormuz, pending approval by the country’s Supreme National Security Council.
- Attacking US bases. US military sites in the region are on high alert after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard labeled US troops as not a “strength” but a “vulnerability.” Tehran also said on Monday that the US attack had expanded the range of legitimate targets. Analysts estimate, however, that half of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed and it has significantly depleted its stockpile of roughly 2,000-3,000 missiles.
- Attacking other US interests. Iran could strike US personnel and interests in the region, according to Middle East expert Jonathan Panikoff of the Atlantic Council. It could also bide time, rebuild capabilities, and plan terrorist attacks inside the US, including cyberattacks on major infrastructure. Such tactics may not satisfy hardliners, however, and the weakened regime may feel the need for a greater and faster show of strength.
- Leveraging allies and proxies. Russia has condemned the US strikes and could become more deeply involved, with Araghchi heading to Moscow for consultations on Monday. Iran could deploy proxies Hamas and the Yemen-based Houthis – who have already vowed revenge – to attack US or Israeli sites. Hardline factions inside Iran could also gain momentum.
What Do Iranians Want?
- Domestically, public reaction is mixed: a rally-around-the-flag effect combined with ongoing grievances with the regime over economic hardship, corruption, and lack of freedoms. Critically, there’s no mass opposition movement poised to topple the regime, and tight surveillance makes it more difficult to organize.
- Outside the country, the Iranian diaspora has long advocated for reform or regime change, but the government is now limiting their influence inside the country. It has shut down the internet and deployed AI answerbots, making communication extremely difficult, limiting the news Iranians can receive and their ability to engage.