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Here's why Israel will accept a Gaza ceasefire soon
Despite the foot dragging and all the threats of taking over Gaza City, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will find his way to a ceasefire in Gaza this September. Here's why.
First, domestic pressure is growing. Israel is witnessing some of the largest street protests it's seen in the past two years. They're repetitive, they're consistent, they're ongoing. Second, there's growing international pressure. It is not only the Saudis that are leading the charge for recognition of a Palestinian state at the United Nations this September. It's also the French and the British and other European and Western allies of Israel. By signing on to a temporary ceasefire, Bibi can preclude some of that pressure.
There are also opportunities here. Netanyahu is better positioned against members of his own coalition who have been threatening to leave it if he signs onto that ceasefire, namely, ministers Ben Gvir, Smotrich are in a weaker position right now in the polls that they had been previously. They need him more than he needs them in the lead up to expected parliamentary elections next year.
There's also President Trump and rumors around Washington have it that he will be willing to visit Israel after a stopover in the UK on the 17th to the 19th of September if in fact Bibi finds his way to that temporary ceasefire. And lastly, what Hamas is putting on the table here is an acceptance of the American plan, otherwise known as the Witkoff plan named after the American envoy who tabled it last spring, but couldn't get itself to accept it. So for Bibi not to accept an American plan that he signed off on back in spring is counterintuitive.
So for all those reasons, we think that there will be a temporary ceasefire in September. It's not a total end to the war. It's a 60-day reprieve. Israel can find itself back at war in Gaza, perhaps occupying the entire strip. That will be the negative and brutal scenario. One would hope that diplomacy will find a way and will reign supreme by the end of that 60-day ceasefire.
Trump-Putin-Zelensky meeting unlikely
"From the European point of view, [it was] pretty disastrous,” Bildt says of Alaska, where Trump "was agreeing with Putin" and hopes for a ceasefire “collapsed.”
The Washington talks brought some relief. With Zelensky and seven European leaders present, Bildt notes “that prevented the worst from happening.” Still, Trump dismissed European calls for a ceasefire and pushed for direct talks between Zelensky and Putin. A plan that Bildt calls unrealistic.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with US special envoy Steve Witkoff ahead of Ukraine war talks.
What We’re Watching: US envoy in Moscow, Tariffs rock South Africa’s government, Hezbollah dismisses disarmament
US envoy meets with Putin ahead of sanctions deadline
US special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on Wednesday ahead of US President Donald Trump’s Friday deadline for the Kremlin to end the war or face new US sanctions. Neither side has revealed details about the talks yet, but Putin is reportedly unmoved by Trump’s threats, seeing his own war aims as being worth the price of further economic pain. The Witkoff-Putin talks came a day after Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed Russia sanctions and increased defense cooperation.
US tariffs cause political trouble in Africa’s largest economy
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is facing a backlash from his coalition partners over his failure to deftly handle tariff negotiations with Trump. In May, Ramaphosa made a trip to the White House where he sought to allay the US president’s trade concerns and push back against largely fabricated stories about a “genocide” of South African white farmers. None of it worked — Africa’s largest and most industrialized economy is under a 30% tariff, the highest rate on the continent.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah rejects calls to disarm
Hezbollah on Wednesday said it would be a “grave sin” for the Lebanese government to try to take away its weapons. The defiant statement comes after Lebanon's cabinet, acting under US pressure, ordered the army this week to draft a plan by year’s end to place Hezbollah’s weapons under state control. Iran-backed Hezbollah faces its weakest moment in years: Israeli strikes have decimated its weapons and leadership, and it no longer has an ally in Syria. Click here for more on what it would take to disarm the group, and here for the most famous recent example of a paramilitary disarmament that actually worked.
View of Tehran at sunset on February 26th, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Iranian water shortages prompt public holiday, Trump admin to burn contraceptives, Ozzy leaves the stage for the last time, & More
1: Iran announced an impromptu one-day public holiday on Wednesday for Tehran’s residents, in an effort to save on water and electricity. Intense heatwaves have added strain to an already-worsening water crisis in the country, brought about by climate change and mismanagement.
$10 million: The Trump administration will incinerate nearly $10 million worth of US-funded contraceptives – intended for poorer nations – in France, after storing them for months in a Belgian warehouse following cuts to USAID programs. The White House reportedly rejected offers from the United Nations and other NGOs to buy or distribute the supplies themselves.
$4 billion: A Saudi business delegation arrived in Syria on Wednesday, where it is expected to sign $4 billion worth of joint projects and deals with Damascus. Riaydh has been a key financial backer in Syria’s post-war rebuilding efforts.
100: Over 100 humanitarian organizations issued a joint statement on Wednesday calling on governments to take decisive action against mass starvation in Gaza. Demanding an immediate and permanent ceasefire, the statement warns that Israel’s partial aid blockade on the enclave has left assistance workers – alongside Palestinian civilians – “wasting away.”
76: Heavy metal pioneer Ozzy Osbourne died at 76 on Tuesday. Just weeks ago, the ailing rock icon held a final reunion concert with Black Sabbath, the supergroup that he started as a young lad in Birmingham, United Kingdom, more than half a century ago. So long Oz, may the Crazy Train keep chugging on into eternity.
Trump announces new plan to arm Ukraine
In this episode of World in :60 Ian Bremmer breaks down why Trump is now backing missile shipments to Ukraine after long opposing them.
"Trump has flipped on Ukraine more than any other issue in foreign policy over the last six months,” says Ian.
On Israel, Ian emphasizes a coalition shakeup could make a Gaza ceasefire more likely, but don’t expect quick progress.
As for Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Russia? “Not a serious point,” Ian says.
China and Japan under pressure from Trump's tariff threats
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s World in :60, Ian breaks down the latest on US trade tensions, Iran’s nuclear program, and Trump’s meeting with Netanyahu.
On US tariffs, Ian says Japan and China face “radically different” situations.
As Iran cuts ties with nuclear inspectors, Ian says they’re “taking their program dark.”
On Trump’s recent meeting with Netanyahu, Ian says a Gaza ceasefire remains uncertain. Though Netanyahu nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, Ian points out, “That’s nice for Trump, but not a Gaza ceasefire.”
Israel, Iran, and the US went to war. Now what happens?
Iran, the clear loser of the 12-Day War, entered as the weakest player and came out weaker still. With Hamas degraded, Hezbollah decimated, Syria toppled, and Russia distracted, Tehran stood mostly alone. Yet its regime can claim survival, some damage inflicted on Israel, and at least partial preservation of its nuclear program—though the extent is unclear.
Netanyahu was never interested in a ceasefire. But he emerged in a far stronger position—crippling Iran’s capabilities, securing US strikes on targets Israel couldn’t reach, and reversing his political fortunes at home.
As for Trump, this is the biggest foreign policy win to date of his second term. He helped dismantle Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, avoided war, and saw no US blowback. Iran was already weakened—but Trump called the bluff, and so far, it’s worked. Emphasis on “so far.”
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What's next for Iran, with Thomas L. Friedman
Listen: On the latest episode of the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman to dissect what may go down as the most consequential month in the Middle East in years. Just weeks after Israel launched a war against Iran—and after President Trump authorized US airstrikes—an uneasy ceasefire is in place. But what was actually achieved?
Iran, the clear loser of the 12-Day War, entered as the most vulnerable player and emerged weaker still. Tehran stood largely alone, with Hamas degraded, Hezbollah decimated, Syria toppled, and Russia distracted. Yet the Islamic Republic can still claim regime survival, some damage inflicted on Israel, and a murkily intact nuclear program.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, avoided a ceasefire until he had secured key gains: he crippled Iran’s infrastructure, leveraged US firepower to hit targets beyond Israel’s reach, and rescued his collapsing political career. As Friedman notes, “The people who won this war for Israel...were, for the most part, the very same people who were in the streets of Israel for nine months against Netanyahu and his judicial coup.” That tension will only grow in the months ahead.
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