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China and Japan under pressure from Trump's tariff threats
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s World in :60, Ian breaks down the latest on US trade tensions, Iran’s nuclear program, and Trump’s meeting with Netanyahu.
On US tariffs, Ian says Japan and China face “radically different” situations.
As Iran cuts ties with nuclear inspectors, Ian says they’re “taking their program dark.”
On Trump’s recent meeting with Netanyahu, Ian says a Gaza ceasefire remains uncertain. Though Netanyahu nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, Ian points out, “That’s nice for Trump, but not a Gaza ceasefire.”
Israel, Iran, and the US went to war. Now what happens?
Iran, the clear loser of the 12-Day War, entered as the weakest player and came out weaker still. With Hamas degraded, Hezbollah decimated, Syria toppled, and Russia distracted, Tehran stood mostly alone. Yet its regime can claim survival, some damage inflicted on Israel, and at least partial preservation of its nuclear program—though the extent is unclear.
Netanyahu was never interested in a ceasefire. But he emerged in a far stronger position—crippling Iran’s capabilities, securing US strikes on targets Israel couldn’t reach, and reversing his political fortunes at home.
As for Trump, this is the biggest foreign policy win to date of his second term. He helped dismantle Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, avoided war, and saw no US blowback. Iran was already weakened—but Trump called the bluff, and so far, it’s worked. Emphasis on “so far.”
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What's next for Iran, with Thomas L. Friedman
Listen: On the latest episode of the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman to dissect what may go down as the most consequential month in the Middle East in years. Just weeks after Israel launched a war against Iran—and after President Trump authorized US airstrikes—an uneasy ceasefire is in place. But what was actually achieved?
Iran, the clear loser of the 12-Day War, entered as the most vulnerable player and emerged weaker still. Tehran stood largely alone, with Hamas degraded, Hezbollah decimated, Syria toppled, and Russia distracted. Yet the Islamic Republic can still claim regime survival, some damage inflicted on Israel, and a murkily intact nuclear program.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, avoided a ceasefire until he had secured key gains: he crippled Iran’s infrastructure, leveraged US firepower to hit targets beyond Israel’s reach, and rescued his collapsing political career. As Friedman notes, “The people who won this war for Israel...were, for the most part, the very same people who were in the streets of Israel for nine months against Netanyahu and his judicial coup.” That tension will only grow in the months ahead.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're publishedThe Dalai Lama at the start of his 90th birthday celebrations in his exile in northern India.
What We’re Watching: Dalai Lama’s succession plans, Big Beautiful Bill in the House, Israel-Hamas ceasefire under review
Who will be the next Dalai Lama?
As the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday, he is meeting with top Buddhist figures this week to lay out succession plans that could draw a sharp response from China. The 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, fled his native Tibet after a failed uprising against Chinese rule in 1959 and became the global face of a campaign for Tibetan independence. While China wants to install a successor who will accept Beijing’s control of both Tibet and Taiwan, the Dalai Lama’s latest statement emphasized his office’s “sole authority” over the selection process.
Is the US House ready to pass Trump’s signature legislation?
Following Senate passage on Wednesday, President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” has returned to the House where lawmakers are scrambling to reach the floor for a possible vote later today. If all members of the House are present — following a cancelled recess, storms in the Washington area this morning have made travel to the Capitol challenging — Republicans can afford just three “no” votes from their members. Some House Republicans already say they would vote against the bill in its current form, likely delaying eventual passage until after Trump’s July 4 deadline.
Israel and Hamas are not yet committed to Gaza ceasefire
On Tuesday, Trump posted on his Truth Social account that Israel had “agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE” in Gaza and warned Hamas that its leaders had better say yes. As of late this morning, both Israel and Hamas remain publicly uncommitted to Trump’s terms. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit the White House next week.US President Donald Trump says that both Israel and Iran “don't know what the fuck they are doing” after violations of the ceasefire take place. Trump makes these remarks to the press as he boards Marine One for a trip to the NATO Summit on June 24, 2025.
Israel-Iran ceasefire: will it hold?
The Iran-Israel ceasefire that US President Donald Trump announced yesterday evening is hanging by a thread this morning. The Israelis accused the Islamic Republic of firing missiles at them after the ceasefire deadline, and Israel responded, striking a radar system near Tehran. Trump is big mad – four-letter-word mad, even.
Can Trump keep the peace? The US president spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday morning, urging him not to strike further at Iran. Israel’s initial riposte was limited, suggesting Netanyahu is OK with the truce for now, even if he might still like to weaken the Iranian regime further. Iran, for its part, seems to have little interest in continuing to fight – its missile arsenal is depleted, its launchers destroyed, and senior military leadership have been assassinated.
But tensions between all sides remain high. Tuesday morning’s flare-ups suggest Trump still has his work cut out if he wants to maintain a longer-term truce.
Iran looks to negotiate ceasefire
As the Israel-Iran war intensifies, Iran is seeking an urgent ceasefire, facing overwhelming Israeli military air superiority.
"They have virtually no capacity to strike back,” says Ian Bremmer in today’s Quick Take. Iran has reportedly expended 20% of its ballistic missiles, with minimal damage inflicted, while Israel has crippled large parts of Iran’s military infrastructure and nuclear program.
The US also looms large, as Ian says, “Trump is basically saying, ‘We’re not entering the war, but we will if you don’t engage in negotiations.’” A US-backed strike on Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant remains a real threat if talks stall.
Despite widespread global condemnation of Israeli strikes, even Iran’s allies like Russia are not stepping in militarily. “Regime survival is the priority now,” Ian warns, as internal dissent grows within Iran’s leadership. But with the risk of irrational escalation rising, Ian adds: “That’s the fog of war stuff … far more likely as this war is going on.”
Rescuers search for a 17-year-old and his parents near an apartment building hit by a Russian missile strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, on April 24, 2025.
A “critical” week for Ukraine
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday that this week is “very critical” for Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine. Russia’s Vladimir Putin made news on Monday by offering a three-day ceasefire beginning on May 8, a move perhaps motivated by skeptical recent comments from Trump on Russia’s willingness to bargain in good faith.
The list of issues still separating Russia and Ukraine remains long, but the larger reason for doubting the war will end soon is a near-complete lack of trust between Moscow and Kyiv and each government’s hope that it can still improve its position on the battlefield.
For Ukraine, there are new signs of hope. In recent days, reports have emerged that Russia’s wartime economy has begun to sputter – Goldman Sachs reports that Russia’s annualized economic growth has fallen from about 5% at the end of last year to below zero now. The boost that Russia’s shift to wartime production provided the country’s economy appears to be used up. In addition, the lower global oil price is biting into Russia’s export revenues, particularly from economically slumping China.
Ukrainian forces can also take heart from the early successes of its plan to build more and better drones domestically, including smaller exploding models that can be controlled remotely from underground bunkers.
For now, all eyes remain on Trump and his waning patience with a war he’s so far proven unable to stop.
Members of the M23 rebel group stand guard at the opening ceremony of Caisse Generale d'epargne du Congo (CADECO) which will serve as the bank for the city of Goma where all banks have closed since the city was taken by the M23 rebels, in Goma, North Kivu province in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo, April 7, 2025.
Does the Congo truce portend peace? Or a potential civil war?
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and an alliance of militias led by the notorious M23 rebels announced a ceasefire on Thursday after talks in Qatar and, after three years of violence, said they would work toward a permanent truce. Meanwhile, Congo will reportedly sign a broad declaration of principles on a minerals deal with Rwanda on Friday in Washington, DC. The UN, US, EU, and other governments accuse Rwanda of using M23 to control valuable mines in Congo, but Washington is in the midst of talks with Congo to secure access to those same minerals, for which a deal with Rwanda is a necessary first step.
M23 recently seized the two principal cities in northeastern Congo, Goma, and Bukavu. At least six previous ceasefires in the long-running conflict have failed, turning hundreds of thousands of people into refugees and exposing them to violence, hunger, lack of shelter, and pervasive sexual exploitation.
Poorly trained and equipped Congolese troops have proven ineffective at fighting the rebels, and UN peacekeepers in the region are widely distrusted — even hated — by locals. A South African-led multinational force that held Goma for over a year was surrounded and pushed back in January; by March, they had completely withdrawn.
With Congo’s military situation in such disarray, a truce may be President Felix Tshisekedi’s only option, but his former ally-turned-archrival Joseph Kabila is proving a thorn in his side. Kabila, who ruled the DRC as president from 2001 to 2019 before going into exile in 2023, has reportedly been spotted in M23-controlled Goma. He has long accused Tshisekedi of mishandling the M23 situation — and we’re watching whether he uses this opportunity to launch a play for power.