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US aid for Israel & Ukraine hangs in the balance
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will the House pass the Senate-approved aid package for Ukraine and Israel?
Well, certainly not if the Freedom Caucus and the Speaker of the House have anything to say about it. So, I mean, as of today, what the Senate has passed with a lot of Republicans on board looks dead in the House. But of course, the ability to jam the House and force them to accept something or there's no government funding, that is a game of chicken that we've seen before and the Senate may well continue to be ready to play. So it is not dead yet, but aid is looking challenging. And let's be clear, irrespective of what happens for 2024, it's going to be very hard to get any more aid for the Ukrainians going forward. And everybody is deeply aware of that reality.
How likely will Israel proceed with a ground invasion of Rafah in Gaza?
Well, keep in mind, this is right on the border with Egypt. The Egyptians have said that this will blow up their peace agreement with Israel if they decide to go into that space full on with a ground invasion. There's already been some incursions, including one that freed two hostages held by Hamas. So clearly that has huge support from the Israeli population as a whole. The Biden administration has publicly said that they don't want to see a ground invasion, especially because there are no circumstances, at least not set up yet, that the Palestinians who continue to be forced to move and move and move will be safe in this environment. I think that we are very close to a temporary cease fire and more hostages being released. So part of this is pressure from Israel to get that done. If you made me bet right now, I'd say we actually see the deal first. But that is not going to end eventual hostilities from ticking back up between the Israelis and Hamas in Gaza.
What are the wider implications for the Indonesia presidential election?
More state influence over key industries in the economy. Probably a little bit more willingness to blow out the budget from a fiscal perspective. But the likely winner, Prabowo, his vice presidential running mate, is the son of Jokowi, the president of Indonesia. And that implies first geopolitically, very similar orientation to have balanced relations between China economically but the US strategically. I don't see that changing at all. There is still a big question about whether they're going to move the capital. This has been a massive effort with a lot of money that is at play and it's not clear that Prabowo is as convinced that that needs to be the legacy as Jokowi has been. That'll be worth watching very carefully when he becomes president, for those that care. I do, hope you do, too.
- Stalled deal on US border security leaves Ukraine in the lurch ›
- Poll: American support for Ukraine aid is falling ›
- Hard Numbers: March shows solidarity for Israel, US Army overturns convictions of Black soldiers, US inflation cools, EU falls short on artillery shells for Ukraine, House passes funding bill ›
- Zelensky's US trip likely to secure aid for Ukraine ›
- US aid for Israel: How much and since when? ›
Israeli soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in this handout picture released on January 28, 2024.
Israel and Hamas may be close to a cease-fire. Has the war already spun out?
A drone attack launched by Iran-aligned militants in Syria on Sunday killed three US soldiers stationed in Jordan, even as CIA Director William Burns was in Paris for high-level talks with Egyptian, Qatari, and Israeli officials over a possible cease-fire and hostage exchange with Hamas. The contours of any deal are not yet clear, but The New York Times reported a two-month pause in fighting in exchange for around 100 remaining hostages.
US President Joe Biden spoke with the Emir of Qatar on Friday, and we’re watching for signs that US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk might be dispatched to the region, which could signal a deal is at hand.
“Burns is pushing for some form of a deal that the Qataris can pressure Hamas to accept,” said Ayham Kamel, a Eurasia Group expert on Middle East policy. The Biden administration is reportedly considering slowing weapons shipments to Israel to build leverage on that side of the negotiations.
A cease-fire can’t come soon enough for the approximately 2 million Gazans reliant on aid to survive after fighting has rendered the vast majority of homes unsafe. Over 26,000 have been killed since the start of the conflict, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.
We’re also watching for how any cease-fire plays out among Iranian proxies. Kamel said the attack on US troops amplified the pressure on Washington to seal a cease-fire, and the Houthis targeted a US destroyer with a missile on Saturday. If the fighting stops in Gaza but continues in the Red Sea and Fertile Crescent, it may be a sign the war has already spun out of hand.
A convoy maneuvers near the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, in Israel, January 24, 2024.
Are Israel and Gaza considering a cease-fire?
Israel and Hamas have agreed that in principle an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners could take place during a month-long cease-fire.
The glimmer of hope came after a month of mediation efforts led by Qatar, the US, and Egypt in recent weeks. The talks have focused on releasing Israeli hostages in return for a break in hostilities, the release of Palestinian prisoners, and more aid to Gaza.
However, there is reason to doubt this deal will come to fruition.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under immense pressure from his war cabinet and the hostages’ families to rescue the 130 remaining in Gaza by any means necessary. But destroying Hamas is his first priority, which he has repeatedly said could only be done through “total victory.”
Israel signaled it would be open to a permanent cease-fire if Hamas removes six senior leaders from Gaza, an offer Hamas vehemently rejected.
Meanwhile, Hamas is refusing to move forward until a permanent cease-fire is guaranteed. The hostages are a powerful bargaining chip for Hamas, so they are unlikely to release them all before a permanent cease-fire is on the horizon.
Hamas also said any agreement would need to include a complete withdrawal of Israel from the Gaza Strip. That is a no-go for Israel, which is constructing an IDF-controlled buffer zone on Gaza’s side of the border in an effort to thwart any future attacks like the one Hamas waged on Oct. 7.
So while both sides may agree on the deal in principle, they are far from seeing eye to eye.
Protesters hold signs demanding the liberation of hostages being held in the Gaza Strip after they were seized by Hamas gunmen on Oct. 7, in Tel Aviv, on Nov. 21, 2023, just hours before the announcement of a four-day cease-fire.
Israel and Hamas: A cease-fire, if you can keep it
Well, we were told to ignore all rumors about a hostage release deal until something was announced officially, so we did.
But now it’s for real: Late Wednesday, Israel’s cabinet approved a limited cease-fire with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of some of the roughly 240 hostages that Hamas abducted during its Oct. 7 rampage through southern Israel. The deal was brokered with help from the US and Qatar.
The terms: Israel will suspend its assault on Gaza for a period of four days, during which time Hamas will release 50 of the hostages, and Israel will release 150 of the nearly 8,000 Palestinians currently jailed in Israel.
Israel will not withdraw any of its forces from Gaza during that time.
Around 300 humanitarian aid trucks will be allowed into the Gaza Strip for each day of the cease-fire.
Israel may prolong the cease-fire by one day for every additional 10 hostages released by Hamas.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to continue Israel’s military action in Gaza after the cease-fire is over.
The pressure: The Israeli government has sworn to destroy Hamas in retaliation for the Oct. 7 attacks, but it has also come under intense pressure at home to secure the release of the hostages.
International demands for a cease-fire, meanwhile, have grown as well. The death toll from Israel’s assault on Gaza has now surpassed 12,000 people, according to local health authorities, while more than two-thirds of Gaza’s 2.2 million population have been displaced. Israeli blockades of humanitarian aid and fuel have exacerbated a gruesome humanitarian crisis in the densely packed enclave.
The catch: It’s not clear when the cease-fire will go into effect. Thursday would be the earliest, as Israel must leave time for any local court challenges to the release of specific Palestinian prisoners, whose names will be made public on Wednesday.
The concern: Agreeing to a cease-fire and hostage release is a major breakthrough, but it’s only a beginning. There is little trust between Hamas and Israel, and both sides will need to maintain strict control over their forces to observe the cease-fire. Even the slightest of perceived provocations could spiral into fresh violence that wrecks the deal entirely.Members pf the Jewish youth group, Hillel, raise posters of hostages during a demonstration in support of Israel on the National Mall attended by tens of thousands of people.
The Gaza hostages: Can Israel really negotiate their release?
Reports continue to circulate of a possible deal between Israel and Hamas that would see the release of as many as 70 women and children held hostage in Gaza since Hamas abducted them on Oct. 7. In exchange, Israel would grant a five-day cease-fire and possibly liberate a number of Palestinian women and children jailed in Israel on minor charges.
The talks have been mediated by the government of Qatar, which maintains good relations with Hamas — the group’s political leadership lives in Doha, and the emirate has, with Israel’s permission, funded the Hamas-run civil service of the Gaza Strip for years.
The Israeli government has come under growing pressure to secure the release of the hostages, even as it pursues its goal of eradicating Hamas. On Tuesday, some of the hostages’ family members began a five-day march from Tel Aviv to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s home in Jerusalem.
But the Israeli government’s own war aims may complicate prospects for the hostages, says Jerusalem-based activist Gershon Baskin, who has negotiated high-profile hostage releases with Hamas in the past.
“How do you fight a war against someone you aim to destroy,” he asks, “and at the same time negotiate with them on humanitarian release of people that they’re holding?”
Baskin cautions that rumors of any impending deal are “noise” and also warns that with IDF forces pushing deeper into Gaza, the time frame for securing a deal is closing.
“I think we have a matter of days left for a negotiated agreement to at least release part of the hostages — the women, the children, and the elderly,” he says. “Very soon, the Israelis will have to go on search-and-rescue missions for them instead.”
Photo of Israeli forces operating in the northern Gaza Strip on Sunday Nov 5, 2023, in an area from which many attempts to attack the Israeli forces through tunnel shafts and military compounds were detected. The Israel Defense Forces says it has killed 10 Hamas field commanders since the beginning of the war.
Gaza: A dangerous new phase
Israel’s war in Gaza has entered a critical new moment. Israeli forces have surrounded Gaza City, and the operation will now escalate the war in Gaza into block-by-block combat and entry into Hamas’ underground tunnels. The death toll on both sides will likely rise sharply. Israel hopes this phase will last just a few weeks, but the goal remains to destroy Hamas, at least in Gaza City, and there’s no guarantee it can progress at the needed pace. Even if it is successful, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced overnight that Israel intends to assume the “overall security responsibility ... for an indefinite period” following the war, citing ongoing security concerns.
The White House has voiced opposition to this scenario in the long term and is calling for a “humanitarian pause” in the fighting. Israel will likely push forward but has said it is open to tactical "little pauses."
Will this surge of violence in Gaza ignite a regional war? There’s already unrest in the West Bank, but the greater threat comes from Iran’s Middle East proxies — particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and Shia militants in Iraq and Syria.
Most key players in this drama — Israel, Iran, the United States, Hezbollah, and Arab leaders — want to avoid a bigger war that would prove costly for all. But there are lots of wildcards here and much that can go wrong as fighting intensifies.
Members of parliament hold placards after the result of the vote on the first motion of no-confidence against the French government at the National Assembly in Paris, France, March 20, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Slim win for Macron, protests in South Africa, Trump’s legal woes, Colombia peace collapsing?
Macron’s narrow escape
It came down to the wire, but Emmanuel Macron’s government narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in France’s National Assembly on Monday, with 278 voting to topple the government, nine votes shy of the threshold needed to pass.
Quick recap: The motion was triggered after Macron used a constitutional provision last week -- bypassing a vote in the lower house -- to pass a controversial pension reform despite weeks of protests (more on that here).
Not only do 70% of French adults abhor Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age to 64 from 62 by 2030 – which he says is necessary to plug the growing debt hole – but the French electorate, which has long had a libertarian streak, is also furious that the government used what it says is an anti-democratic loophole to pass the measure.
Macron’s troubles are only just beginning. Hundreds were arrested in Paris over the weekend and on Monday as anti-government protests turned violent and smelly. Unions have called for nationwide demonstrations and strikes in a bid to pressure the government to roll back the measures (which will never happen).
Prime Minister Élizabeth Borne will likely take the fall and resign. Still, Macron, already unpopular before this debacle, will emerge a diminished political figure. After previously saying he understood that people were “tired of reforms which come from above,” it will be very hard for the ideological chameleon to regain the trust of vast swathes of the population.
South Africa’s day of demonstrations
Amid rolling blackouts and a slumping economy, the Marxist-linked Economic Freedom Fighters Party called for a national day of protests Monday, putting law enforcement on high alert.
The EFF, the country’s third-largest party led by longtime leader Julius Malema, is largely backed by poor Black South Africans, many of whom live in townships, as well as younger voters who feel they haven't benefited from the ruling African National Congress Party’s tenure in the post-apartheid era. Indeed, around one-third of South Africans are out of work and the economy is slated to grow by just 0.3% in 2023, down from 2.5% in 2022.
President Cyril Ramaphosa mobilized more than 3,000 troops nationwide in anticipation of mass protests. But turnout was lower than expected, prompting Malema to claim that the government was blocking buses transporting protesters.
The EFF “will still claim the wall-to-wall media coverage around the protests as a victory,” says Ziyanda Sturrman, a South Africa expert at Eurasia Group.
None of this is good news for Ramaphosa, who, after a series of political scandals, looks set to lose his parliamentary majority in next year’s general election. Still, Stuurman notes that if the ANC falls just below the 50% threshold, several small parties have already put their hands up to join an ANC-led coalition.
Trump vs. prosecutors
Former US President Donald Trump faces possible legal challenges on multiple fronts. The state of New York could charge him with fraud for alleged hush money payments to a porn star. The Justice Department could charge him with many suspected crimes related to efforts to overthrow the result of the 2020 election as well as the misuse of hundreds of classified documents recovered by the FBI from his Florida home. Prosecutors in Georgia could charge him with election fraud as part of his alleged effort to overturn that state’s 2020 election result.
If Trump is indicted, he’ll likely present himself for charges, while also calling for protests. He would then be released on bond pending trial, and it’s unlikely that any trial in any of these potential cases would take place in 2023.
Trump would continue his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. There’s nothing in the US Constitution to prevent him from being elected president. His fate would remain with voters. If elected, his presidency would begin in court. In theory, a president could pardon himself for federal crimes. That would have to be tested. But no president can pardon state-level crimes, like those he might be charged with in New York and Georgia. In short, prosecutors and Trump may be about to steer American politics into uncharted waters.
Colombia: Is Petro’s “total peace” going to pieces?
Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro took office last year pledging to reach a negotiated “total peace” with the country’s various armed and criminal groups. But on Monday that strategy took a big hit when he was forced to suspend a three-month-old ceasefire with the fearsome Clan del Golfo (Gulf Clan), the Andean region’s most powerful narco-trafficking outfit. The Clan had allegedly attacked an aqueduct and opened fire on police officers.
The move puts Petro in a tough spot — ramping up military action risks escalating a conflict he was elected in part to end peacefully. But allowing cartels to run riot isn’t an option either.
The setback comes amid a broader season of discontent for Petro: a corruption investigation of his son, the departure of several key coalition ministers, and an approval rating that is net-negative barely six months since he took office.
Petro, a former guerilla who is the country’s first left-wing president, has made an effort to build bridges across the political spectrum so far. But his critics worry that if the going gets tougher, he might resort to a more populist style that could be explosive in a country as polarized as Colombia.
Will the Ukraine ceasefire last? COVID containment in Europe
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, with the view from Europe:
Will the recent ceasefire between Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatists lead to a solution of the conflict?
That's much too early to say. At first, it remains to be seen if this ceasefire will hold. There have been a number of ceasefires and all of them have collapsed sooner or later. We'll see first what happens with this one. Will it lead to further political talks between Kiev and Moscow, primarily? That remains to be seen. I mean, there have been no indication so far of change in the basic Russian attitude of keeping on to Donbass, the one way or the other. So, let's hope for the best but let's be rather skeptical about all that's happening.
Will the recent upsurge of coronavirus and different measures taken against it in Spain lead to a new lockdown in Europe?
No, I don't think it will. I mean, you will certainly see, as you see elsewhere, sort of outburst here and there, but I think that there are better capabilities now in Europe to localize those particular outbursts and try to contain them. So, a return to the big lockdowns that was always the beginning of the year, that is, I think, neither necessary nor likely.