Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Palestinians protest to demand an end to war, chanting anti-Hamas slogans, in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip, on March 26, 2025.
Palestinians shake fists at Hamas
These protests in the town of Beit Lahia in Gaza’s north were triggered by an Israeli order to evacuate large parts of the town after Islamic Jihad gunmen launched rockets at Israel on Tuesday.
Though limited in numbers, these hundreds of Palestinians took to the streets confident that they would be met, as in the past, by masked and armed Hamas fighters who would denounce them as traitors and assault those slowest to disperse.
It’s a reminder that once the war ends, there will be a reckoning among Gaza’s Palestinians over control of their future. For now, the nearly two-month Gaza ceasefire is over, and Israeli attacks on Palestinian targets resumed on March 18, killing hundreds. But once the war is finally settled, and Israel and outside powers begin to prepare and debate plans for Gaza’s future, the anger many Palestinians feel toward Hamas will likely crest.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks during a press conference, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine March 25, 2025.
Russia derails ceasefire agreement, to Trump’s dismay
The United States announced on Tuesday that Russia and Ukraine had verbally agreed to a temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea and a moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes. Ukraine confirmed the agreement — which followed marathon talks in Riyadh — and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was grateful to the US for brokering it. But soon after, Moscow introduced fresh conditions for agreeing to a limited ceasefire, including the removal of sanctions on certain Russian banks and exports. Even Donald Trump, in response to Russia’s apparent bait and switch, remarked “it could be they’re dragging their feet,” but said he remained confident that Vladimir Putin wants to strike a deal.
Clouds of war: Russia, meanwhile, is seeking to gain as much ground as possible in Ukraine before there’s a more expansive pause in fighting, incentivizing it to drag out negotiations. On Monday, the Kremlin launched missiles on a residential area in the northeastern city of Sumy that injured 88 people, and a cyberattack hit Ukraine’s ticketing system, resulting in long waits at railway stations. In response, Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s civilian energy infrastructure, which is included in the outline of Tuesday’s ceasefire.
What Ukrainians want: An overwhelming majority of Ukrainians support a broad 30-day truce, according to a March Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll. But just 16% said they would agree to Russia’s publicly stated terms for a fuller ceasefire, with 79% calling it “completely unacceptable.”
What comes next? Trump maintains that he believes both sides want to see an end to the war, and he reiterated that “I just want to see it stop. I also don’t want to pay.” What’s crystal clear is that further talks will be necessary, highlighting how this is merely a bump on the long road to peace in war-torn Ukraine.
“The US can seek to convert these agreements into a broader ceasefire, provided that they hold,” says Alex Brideau, Russia director at Eurasia Group. “The back-and-forth talks the Americans have had with the Ukrainians and Russians demonstrate the challenges the Trump administration will face.”
President Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, speaks to reporters at the White House in Washington, on March 19, 2025.
Ukraine talks continue in Saudi Arabia after Trump envoy praises Putin
While US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff predicted “real progress, particularly as it affects a Black Sea ceasefire on ships between both countries,” leading to a “full-on shooting ceasefire,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov contradicted him, telling Russian state TV on Sunday that “difficult negotiations” await and that “We are only at the beginning of this path.”
Witkoff was also criticized by Western experts for an interview with pro-Trump broadcaster Tucker Carlson that aired Friday, in which he dismissed UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s proposed peacekeeping plan for Ukraine as “a posture and a pose” and repeated several Kremlin talking points, including that Ukraine is a “false country.” Witkoff also said that Russia’s control over five Ukrainian regions – of which he was only able to name two – should be internationally recognized and praised Vladimir Putin as “super smart,” adding, “I don’t regard Putin as a bad guy.”Israelis protest against the government over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plans to remove Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, the resumption of Israeli strikes on Gaza, and the return of far-right politician Itamar Ben Gvir to the cabinet.
Israel launches Gaza ground operation, Bibi faces blowback
Israel has launched a “limited ground operation” to retake the strategic Netzarim Corridor in Gaza as part of its offensive against Hamas, sealing off North and South Gaza and reoccupying four fortified bases. The moves follow Israeli airstrikes that reportedly killed over 400 Palestinians in 48 hours.
In a statement Wednesday, Hamas called the ground incursion a "new and dangerous violation" of the ceasefire deal. The United Nations also condemned an Israeli strike that killed a UN staffer and wounded five others in central Gaza City, and the International Committee of the Red Cross warned that Gaza hospitals are running out of medical supplies.
What’s the view from Israel? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists the offensive will continue until Hamas is eliminated and all 59 remaining Israeli hostages are freed. In Jerusalem, however, tens of thousands of demonstrators marched Wednesday morning to protest the collapse of the ceasefire as well as efforts to remove the chief of the Shin Bet security force, Ronen Bar, who has been investigating Netanyahu’s aides on corruption allegations.
Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara is refusing to dismiss Bar without a legal review, saying that “the role of the head of the Shin Bet is not a personal trust position serving the prime minister.” We’re watching whether Bibi will continue to press his case, or whether public pressure will make him back down.About that (Trump-Putin) phone call
Last week, the US and Ukrainian governments agreed to pursue a 30-day ceasefire with no preconditions. Putin said yesterday on that call that he agrees – as long as the halt to fighting applies only to strikes on energy infrastructure, a major military target for both sides in recent months. That’s far short of the pause on fighting by land, sea, and air that Trump wanted, though Putin did say he was also ready to talk about a pause on attacks on Black Sea shipping. (Clearly, the Russian president is tired of daily briefings on the successes of Ukrainian air and sea drones.)
In the meantime, Russian forces will continue to push for more territorial gains on the ground, and Russia remains free to launch air attacks on civilian populations. We saw more of that last night. Since spring is here and power losses will no longer leave Ukrainians in the freezing cold, the promise to hold off on attacking energy infrastructure costs Russia little.
Putin offered Trump enough to encourage the US president to continue talks on a broader US-Russia rapprochement, one that includes benefits for both economies. Trump also has no reason to begin insisting that Ukrainians and Europeans participate in future negotiations, another prize for Putin.
Any halt or slowdown in the intensity of attacks will keep more civilians alive, at least for now. That's good news, and there's likely to be further movement toward a broader ceasefire at some point later in the year, maybe by the end of April.
But a durable peace agreement is another question. Putin made clear to Trump that he has some bright red lines that must be respected. For example, the Russian president insisted there could be no ongoing military and intelligence support for Ukraine from either the US or Europe. (The US readout of the call doesn’t mention that, but the Kremlin version does.) Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky will turn quickly to the Europeans for help, and he’ll get it. Neither Ukraine nor Europe has any reason to accept an end to support for Kyiv. That will be a large problem for Trump in getting the big-splash peace deal he wants.
Still, Trump might soon argue that Ukraine and its Euro allies are the obstacle that prevents a temporary ceasefire from blossoming into permanent peace. If so, Putin will miss out on a peace deal he doesn’t want in exchange for a big new opening with the president of the United States.
That’s where Trump and Putin have left it. From his visit yesterday to Finland, Zelensky offered a positive preliminary appraisal of the energy infrastructure ceasefire, but with some big caveats. He said that he’ll have a “conversation with President Trump” where he’ll try to read the fine print on Trump’s exchange with Putin. That call happened earlier today. He called on Russia to free all Ukrainian prisoners of war as a gesture of good faith, and he vowed to keep Ukrainian troops inside Russia’s Kursk region “for as long as we need.”
But the energy ceasefire is essentially a scaled-back version of the proposal for a long-range airstrike halt and naval truce that Zelensky offered before the US-Ukrainian meeting last week in Saudi Arabia. If Ukraine’s president does fully endorse the idea, Europe will quickly get to yes too. Ukraine and the Europeans will then try to work toward winning a broader ceasefire that puts the Kremlin back on the spot. For now, that prospect looks doubtful.
Sadly, today’s news on Ukraine sounds a lot like what we’ve seen in Gaza where, as hard and time-consuming as it was to get that first ceasefire, a move to phase two will yield a lot fewer points the two sides can agree on. And as with Gaza, when that first ceasefire comes to an end, expect a new burst of deadly violence.
That’s why it’s hard to be optimistic that yesterday’s bargaining has moved us any closer to a true and lasting peace, the outcome all sides say they want.
Putin-Trump Ukraine call is a small win for both sides
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: The Putin-Trump call, some 90 minutes long, now over. And I would call this a win for both sides, for the Americans and the Russians, and not horrible for Ukraine and Europe, but kicking the can on what's going to be some big problems down the road and setting out where those challenges are going to be. Why is that?
Well, first of all, Putin said, "No," to the 30-day complete ceasefire, but did give a win to Trump, having accepted a 30-day ceasefire with no conditions with the Ukrainians. The Russians are saying they're prepared to do that, with no gives, as long as it's about targeting energy infrastructure, and in principle, still some discussions around maritime attacks around the Black Sea. Places that frankly the Russians have been irritated with what Ukraine has been able to do with air drones and with sea drones. And also allows the Russians to continue to press for territorial gains over the course of the coming weeks, depleting Ukraine's military capabilities. Plus, the weather's getting warmer, how much damage are you going to do to Ukraine, how miserable you can make them when you're no longer dealing with the freeze is not quite as relevant. So, not a particular loss for the Russians.
The fact that you're going to have less engagement militarily means fewer people will get killed. That's good for everybody involved, frankly. So that's where we are. Did you need 90-minutes to get that going? Not really, because the Russians also want to ensure that they have lots of conversations with the Americans about building business between the two sides, about people-to-people engagement, about finding a way to ensure that there is an ongoing bilateral channel where the Europeans aren't involved, where the Ukrainians aren't involved, that's essential for Putin and that he got. So yes, you have a meaningful, relatively contained ceasefire that maybe you can build on, but you also have a meaningful bilateral channel for broader engagement between the Americans and the Russians that the Ukrainians and the Europeans aren't going to be a part of, and that the Americans have no interest in having the Ukrainians Europeans being a part of.
Now, what Trump has heard from Putin in terms of red lines is that to actually have a comprehensive ceasefire ongoing, that the Russians are demanding, that there is no further intelligence or military support to Ukraine from the United States or Europe. That's obviously a non-starter for the Ukrainians because it means they won't be able to defend themselves as the Russians rebuild. It's a non-starter for the Europeans for similar reasons. Trump might be willing to negotiate that, and if he is, then he and Putin can blame Ukraine and the Europeans for not being able to take a 30-day limited ceasefire and expand it, which is exactly the position that Putin wants to be in. So, Putin giving a little bit in the near-term with the hopes of getting a lot more in the longer-term, getting Trump as it were, a little bit pregnant around a deal so that he's more engaged with the Russians in areas that's going to be more consequential and more costly for Europe and for the Ukrainians.
So that's where we are. We don't know yet whether the Ukrainians are going to accept these limited 30-day terms. I expect they will, because Trump wants them to. And when that happens, the Europeans will be onboard, too. The intention will be to try to use that by the Ukrainians, the Europeans, to try to get a longer, broader ceasefire. But there, the working level conversations between the US and Russia, between the US and Ukraine, are going to be far more difficult and they're probably not going to hold.
It feels a little bit like what we have in Gaza. Relatively easy to get the first iteration of a deal in place where no one's really giving anything up, but as you go into the second phase, you find that the fundamental interests don't actually overlap, and that's why we're fighting again on the ground in Gaza, with the Israelis killing hundreds of people there in the last 24-hours, and it's why I expect ultimately we are not heading towards peace, even though we do get a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin could talks with President Donald Trump as early as this week. Artem Priakhin/SOPA Images via Reuters Connect
Moscow demands major concessions in Ukraine ceasefire talks
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss America’s 30-day ceasefire proposal this week after Ukraine endorsed the plan last Tuesday but Putin torpedoed it with a list of conditions. Trump said Sunday that he would speak with the Russian leader on Tuesday and that there were ongoing negotiations about “dividing up certain assets.”
What does Russia want? To allay fears that a pause will give Ukraine a chance to rearm itself, Putin is demanding that Ukraine cease all military mobilization and that the West halt arms supplies. Moscow also wants to formally annex the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, which Russia occupies but has not managed to fully control – something Ukraine adamantly opposes.
Who else is engaging – or not? UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer announced Saturday that a growing coalition of nations will back Ukraine in its negotiations with Russia, including offering air and peacekeeping support, as well as seizing frozen Russian assets to keep the pressure on Moscow.
Meanwhile, Trump narrowed the role of US General Keith Kellogg from Special Envoy to Moscow and Ukraine to dealing only with Ukraine, reportedly after the Kremlin claimed Kellogg was too close to Kyiv. In a post on Truth Social, Trump claimed that "General Kellogg, a Highly Respected Military Expert, will deal directly with President (Volodymyr Zelenski), and Ukrainian leadership… He knows them well, and they have a very good working relationship together.” Businessman and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who has previously said that Russia was “provoked” into attacking Ukraine, is now considered the key player in the talks with Putin.
What’s happening on the ground? After a vicious drone assault last weekend, Russian forces are now fighting to expel Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region. Ukrainian soldiers there are vowing to “fight to the bitter end” amid evacuations and destruction in border villages.
A Russian army soldier walks along a ruined street of Malaya Loknya settlement, which was recently retaken by Russia's armed forces in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Kursk region, on March 13, 2025.
Putin says he supports ceasefire, but with a huge asterisk
Russian President Vladimir Putinsaid Thursday that he supports a US-brokered 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine, in principle, but imposed major conditions ahead of talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow.
He explained that he’s opposed to anything that would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm or compromise Russia’s momentum, in which troops are “advancing practically everywhere” along the front. He also asked who would oversee and enforce a ceasefire along “more than 2,000 kilometers” of frontlines.
A day earlier, Putin visited troops in Kursk, a Russian region where Kremlin forces are currently routing Ukrainian troops who have occupied parts of the region since August.
Putin said a ceasefire could not be used for those Ukrainians to go back to Ukraine. “There are two options,” he said, “surrender or die.”
Most ominously: Putin said any settlement had to address the “long term” and “root causes” of his 2022 invasion. The Kremlin has long pushed for a change in Ukraine’s government, demilitarization of the country, international recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and other Ukrainian territories, and a ban on Ukraine joining NATO.
These terms, functionally a surrender, are not ones that Ukraine could agree to willingly, which puts the ball back in the US court.
Putin said he would like to speak with Donald Trump who, also on Thursday, said that he was open to the idea but that “we have to get it over with fast.”
And that’s the problem: Trump wants fast, Putin wants slow, and the US may not have the leverage, or the willingness, to change his clock.