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Why Trump won’t break the Putin-Xi alliance
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Trump's relationship with Putin isolate or concern China?
I wouldn't say so. I think that Putin and Xi Jinping have one of the stronger relationships on the global stage today. I think they've met something like 81 times bilaterally since the two have been in power. They're both leaders for life, they run dictatorships, and they support each other all the time at the United Nations. There's a lot of technology and trade, and China needs to buy Russian energy. The Americans certainly don't. So, for lots of reasons, this relationship is much more stable and strong than anything that Trump is likely to build with Putin. Especially because Trump is a one more term president, 78 years old, with checks and balances in the US, even if they're getting weaker, they exist. That's not true in Russia. It's not true in China. So, I don't think Beijing is very worried about that.
What does the resignation of Iran's Vice President Zarif signal about tensions in the country?
Well, given the fact that the finance minister was also just impeached this weekend, also a would-be reformist, a moderate, in the context of the Iranian political spectrum, it means the supreme leader and the conservatives do not trust these guys to engage with the Americans or the West. It's a harder line Iranian policy as they move towards greater levels of stockpiling, of enriched uranium, and as their military strategy has fallen apart for the region. If anyone is going to talk to the Americans, and if anyone is going to try to forestall attacks from Israel, and maybe by the US as well, it's not going to be the people that got the original Iranian nuclear deal done, the JCPOA. So, that's what it looks like in reform. Nascent under a lot of trouble. The Iranian president under a lot of pressure right now at home.
What's next for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire as the first phase comes to an end?
Well, I think what everyone is waiting for is the Egypt deal, which is being penned and is being sent over in advance of an Arab League summit to Trump in the coming hours, if not day. Originally, it was a few hundred pages long. The Saudis told the Egyptians, "Maybe you want to have an executive summary that's a little glossier for Trump? He's not reading a couple hundred pages." That's been worked on all weekend. And it certainly isn't the Americans owning Gaza. It certainly isn't the Palestinians being forced out or all voluntarily leaving. Whether or not Trump is prepared to sign off on that, or at least allow it to go forward and not veto it, as long as it hits that hurdle, I think you'll have pretty much all of the Arab states signing off on it in the Arab summit. That's where we are right now, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Israeli tanks are seen inside Gaza amid a ceasefire breakdown between Israel and Hamas on March 2, 2025.
Israel disrupts aid delivery to Gaza after ceasefire talks fail
Israeli Defense Forces blocked aid trucks from entering Gaza on Sunday, just one day after the first phase of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas expired, bringing negotiations over a permanent truce to a standstill. Arab states have condemned the Israeli move.
Context: Under the original ceasefire agreement, Israel and Hamas were supposed to enter the second phase of the deal on Saturday. This would have involved the release of the remaining 59 Israeli hostages by Hamas and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. This original concept has now been undermined as the Israelis are instead looking for alternative options for extending the first phase of the tenuous truce.
What’s next: By blocking aid from Gaza, Israel is seeking to build leverage. Rather than commencing its withdrawal in return for the remaining hostages, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahunow wants the militant group to release half of the captives before it negotiates a permanent ceasefire before April 20. Hamas has refused the extension and wants Egypt and Qatar to mediate.
Points of leverage: Israel is using the withholding of aid and the threat of further fighting to corner its adversary. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Saturday announced another $4 billion in military aid for Israel to help boost its security. As long as Hamas retains the 59 hostages, though, there will be pressure on Netanyahu to swiftly bring an end to the war — polls show an overwhelming majority of Israelis want the prime minister to maintain the ceasefire deal.Israeli machinery maneuvers during an Israeli operation in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, on Feb. 23, 2025.
Gaza ceasefire hits a snag
Uneasy week: Tensions have been high since Hamas mistakenly sent the remains of an anonymous Gazan woman instead of those of Shiri Bibas when it returned the bodies of three Israeli hostages last week.
The Israeli government says it won’t return the Palestinian prisoners until Hamas commits to halting the hostage “ceremonies.” Finalizing the first phase of the deal, which is set to expire next weekend, is contingent upon the release of these detainees. Hamas, in turn, has called the delay a “blatant violation of [the ceasefire’s] terms.”
The second phase of the deal would involve Hamas releasing all remaining Israeli hostages in return for Israel withdrawing its troops from Gaza, and the details of the third and final phase still need to be ironed out.
Complicating matters further, the Israel Defense Forces moved tanks into the West Bank on Sunday and told tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians that they could not return to their homes in the occupied area. The moves are reportedly part of the largest Israeli military operation into the Palestinian Authority-controlled territory for more than two decades.Or Levy, Eli Sharabi, and Ohad Ben Ami, hostages held in Gaza since the deadly Oct. 7, 2023 attack, are released by Hamas militants as part of a ceasefire and a hostages-prisoners swap deal between Hamas and Israel on Feb. 8, 2025.
Hostage release sparks outrage, Israel withdraws from more of Gaza
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was reportedly shocked by their condition and vowed to bring the remaining hostages home. “Due to the harsh condition of the three hostages and the repeated violations of the Hamas terror groups,” his office said in a statement, “the prime minister has ordered that Israel will not gloss over this and will take action as needed.” Hamas, meanwhile, says it won’t release more hostages until Israel withdraws completely from Gaza.
What’s next? Under the terms of the ceasefire, Israel withdrew from Gaza’s Netzarim corridor on Sunday, allowing thousands of displaced Palestinians to return north. But military operations continue: Israeli forces on Sunday killed three Palestinians in Gaza and two women in the West Bank, one of whom was pregnant, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.
And as nations continue to reject US President Donald Trump’s controversial proposal to relocate Gaza’s inhabitants to other parts of the Middle East, Netanyahu suggested that a Palestinian state could be established in Saudi Arabia. While the Israeli PM reportedly appeared to be joking, Riyadh immediately repudiated the comments. Qatar, which is set to mediate the next round of the ceasefire talks between Hamas and Israel this week, also condemned the remarks.
A view shows Israeli tanks near the border with Gaza, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, January 21, 2025.
Gaza ceasefire already in doubt
Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire get to phase two? After the initial exchange of hostages and prisoners this past weekend, there is growing skepticism, including from the White House, that the deal will hold.
“I’m not confident. It’s not our war, it’s their war,” President Donald Trumpsaid Monday.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has threatened to resign if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not break the ceasefire once the first 42-day phase is over and continue Israel’s efforts to eradicate Hamas. This comes on the heels of far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir and a couple of his colleagues quitting the cabinet over the “reckless” deal, leaving Netanyahu’s government dependent on the support of opposition leader Yair Lapid for its survival – for now.
While both Israel and the US say continued Hamas control of Gaza is a nonstarter, the reality is that despite 15 months of Israeli military operations, Hamas remainsfirmly in control of the territory. At Sunday’s exchange of three female hostages, dozens of Hamas fighters surrounded the Red Cross vehicles carrying the Israelis in a show of force. Despite the killing of leader Yahya Sinwar, the group’s exiled leadership reportedly remains functional, and Sinwar’s brother Mohammed has a greater role in the organization.
A second front? While hostilities have ceased in Gaza, on Tuesday Israel launched a “counterterrorism” operation in the occupied West Bank, killing nine and injuring dozens, according to Palestinian officials. Hamas leaders condemned the violence and called on Palestinians in the territory to increase their attacks on Israelis – something that could further jeopardize the fragile peace.
Released Doron Steinbrecher embraces loved ones at Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan, Israel, after being held in Gaza since the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, on Jan. 19, 2025.
Gaza ceasefire goes into effect, and three hostages are set free
Following last-minute disagreements over Israeli troop withdrawals and the identities of the hostages to be released, the Gaza ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel went into effect on Sunday.
So far, three Israeli hostages — Romi Gonen, Emily Damari, and Doron Steinbrecher — have been reunited with their families, ending 471 days in captivity following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas. They were the first of the 33 hostages set to be released under the deal — and Israel has agreed to release 1,900 Palestinians from Israeli jails. As of early Monday local time, 90 Palestinian prisoners had already been freed.
Domestic political costs: On Sunday, Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvirresigned from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet to protest the ceasefire. He was joined by two other ministers from the far-right Jewish Power party. This leaves Netanyahu with only a slim governing majority in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Further defection could lead to the government's collapse.
Will the deal hold up? For the first phase, lasting 42 days, the incentives seem well enough aligned to keep either side from breaching the peace. Hamas needs time to reorganize and rearm, which it can achieve by releasing the 33 hostages it has promised throughout the first phase. Netanyahu, for his part, wants to deliver those hostages for voters — but after that phase is over, prospects dim.
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a beachfront cafe amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Deir Al-Balah, Gaza Strip, on January 14, 2025.
Gaza ceasefire seems tantalizingly close — how long could it last?
After months of negotiations mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, Hamas on Tuesday accepted a draft ceasefire agreement that could bring an end to the fighting in Gaza – at least temporarily – if Israel’s cabinet approves it. Negotiators believe an agreement could be reached before Donald Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20.
What’s in the deal? Hamas would release 33 of the roughly 94 remaining Israeli hostages — mostly women, children, and elderly or injured people — over six weeks in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian women and children imprisoned in Israel.
During this first phase, Israeli forces would pull out of urban areas and allow some 600 truckloads of aid to enter Gaza each day. The IDF would not pull out of Gaza entirely, however, and people attempting to return to their homes will find them largely demolished.
Then it gets tricky. The details of the second and third phases would need to be negotiated while the first phase is in progress — and Eurasia Group regional expert Greg Brew isn’t confident that the right incentives exist to find success.
“Hamas really has two sources of leverage,” he says. “The first is the hostages, and when they lose the hostages they lose any ability to influence Israeli action. The second is their continued ability to fight, and it is likely going to continue a low-level insurgency against Israel and any potential new government formed to govern Gaza.”
So why a deal? For Hamas, a respite from combat allows reorganization and rearmament. The outgoing Biden administration, meanwhile, is eager for a win before it leaves office — and it’s one Trump will surely claim even if it comes before his inauguration. Brew says the timing offers the incoming administration a fig leaf. “When the deal collapses, he can say, ‘Oh, there were flaws in place. This was a bad deal. It happened under Biden's watch.’”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu similarly gets to have his cake and eat it too by delivering the hostage releases voters have demanded without fully committing to end the war, which would infuriate his far-right coalition partners.
“Netanyahu gets everything,” says Brew. “He gets a deal that makes Trump happy, that delivers a win to the Israeli people, that quiets the opposition, and that strengthens his position.”
US President Joe Biden delivers remarks in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington after Israel and Lebanon accepted a ceasefire deal on Nov. 26, 2024.
Israel agrees to Lebanon ceasefire, Biden confirms
The Israeli Security Cabinet has approved a ceasefire for Lebanon, President Joe Bidenannounced on Tuesday, welcoming the opportunity to start reestablishing peace in the Middle East. “Under the deal reached today, effective at 4 a.m. tomorrow local time, the fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end,” Biden said.
While earlier reports suggested the US-brokered agreement would involve a 60-day transition period to pave the way toward a more lasting peace, Biden emphasized that the truce is meant to be permanent. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed — I emphasize, will not be allowed — to threaten the security of Israel again,” he said.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had urged approval of the deal, and it was passed “with a majority of 10 ministers in favor and one opposed,” his office said just before Biden announced the news.
The Israeli leader said it was the right time for a ceasefire because it would isolate Hamas, give Israel’s military space to regroup and resupply, and allow the Jewish state to focus more on the threat from Iran.
In the hours leading up to Netanyahu’s announcement on Tuesday, Israel continued to pound Lebanon with airstrikes. But 13 months of fighting ended early Wednesday as the ceasefire took hold, and thousands of displaced Lebanese civilians have begun returning to their homes in the South.
The US pushed hard for the agreement and while the Biden administration is taking credit, the deal could provide a boost for Donald Trump as he enters the White House in January. Trump — who has a close relationship with Bibi — has promised to bring peace to the region, and his administration will soon be on deck with efforts for a more permanent peace between Israel and Hezbollah, and perhaps a resolution for Gaza and the remaining hostages.
In the meantime, we’ll be watching to see if the truce holds as the region remains on edge with the war in Gaza raging on amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.