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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu followed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir walk inside the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem March 27, 2025.
Netanyahu’s coalition is crumbling
Israel’s ruling coalition is facing its most serious crisis yet. Two of the country’s ultra-Orthodox parties — United Torah Judaism and Shas — announced they are quitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government over proposed changes to long-standing rules that exempt ultra-Orthodox students from Israel’s military draft. The split is likely to collapse the coalition. The centrist opposition Yesh Atid party has already filed a motion to dissolve the Knesset, Israel’s legislature. A vote on that, set for June 11, is likely to succeed, triggering a general election by November.
The withdrawal of the two parties came in response to a bill introduced by a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party that would curtail military exemptions. The ultra-Orthodox community has largely been exempted from military service since Israel’s founding, but that arrangement is under growing strain as the Gaza war stretches Israel’s manpower, forcing repeated reserve call-ups that have generated increasing public anger at this exemption.
“This issue — ultra-Orthodox conscription — is part of a divide that’s governed Israel for 70 years. It’s not new, but it’s symbolic of the larger cultural war,” says Middle East Institute Scholar Dr. Ilan Peleg.
But this was just the straw that broke the camel’s back. Netanyahu’s coalition has been becoming increasingly fractured as polarization and government dissatisfaction has risen in the country. The prime minister is personally motivated to remain in charge to preserve his legal immunity amid ongoing corruption trials. To do so, he has relied on two key groups to stay in power: ultra-nationalists who want to escalate the war in Gaza beyond what much of the Israeli public is willing to tolerate, and ultra-Orthodox parties who insist on maintaining exemptions from military service — a stance that has generated resentment among some non-Orthodox Israelis, who bear the brunt of the war effort.
With the ultra-Orthodox unlikely to return without a clear legislative fix — and none is forthcoming — the odds of a government collapse are high.
This upheaval raises big questions.
The first is Iran. “The threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program is one of the few unifying issues among Israelis,” says Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “A successful raid that delays Iran’s ability to acquire a nuclear weapon could strengthen Netanyahu’s domestic position.”
But a dramatic move against Iran, without strong US backing — particularly from President Donald Trump, who currently favors diplomacy — would carry major risks.
“Even if it’s possible technically to do it, maybe desired by Israelis,” Peleg explains, “the American veto would be a major factor on the negative side.”
The second is Gaza. Early elections would raise pressure on Netanyahu to secure more hostage releases from Gaza and strike a temporary ceasefire — with growing war fatigue and frustration over hostages likely to weaken Likud at the polls.
If the government collapses and elections are held, the increasingly unpopular Netanyahu could lose his grip on power. He would be challenged by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, whose newly-registered right-wing party is currently leading in the polls.
Netanyahu, a skilled politician who has held the premiership in several stints since the 1990s, has come back from more than one prediction of his demise. Will this time be different?
Maksad says that while it’s “not impossible that [Netanyahu] could manage to return the premiership… It would be an uphill battle.”
Israelis hold up photos of dead children in Gaza at demonstration in Tel Aviv, May 7th, 2025.
Israelis hold vigils for children killed in Gaza as government expands war
Tom Zandman, a 36-year-old Jewish Israeli from Jaffa, was once a staunch supporter of Israel’s war in Gaza. But now he says there’s nothing defensible or defensive about it. On a busy street corner during rush hour in Tel Aviv last week, Zandman was one of dozens of Israelis standing on the roadside, all holding photos of children killed in Gaza.
“After October 7th, we were all super high on our sense of self-righteousness,” Zandman told me, holding up a photo of two young girls who were killed. “But as time went on, I realized how historic this was… what we are doing in Gaza will be remembered as one of the worst atrocities of the 21st century.”
A car slowed down as it approached the demonstration. The driver honked his horn and rolled down the window. “yamuutuu kuulam!” screamed a woman in the passenger seat at the demonstrators. “Kill them all” in Hebrew.
Most anti-war activism in Israel has focused on demanding a ceasefire deal that would secure the release of the hostages. But an increasing number of Israelis are now taking to the streets to protest against what they view as criminal conduct from the Israeli military in Gaza. These demonstrations are now happening multiple times a week in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Thousands of Israelis marched to the Gaza border on Sunday demanding an end to the war.
As of May 5 2025, 16,278 children and 52,653 people in total have been killed in Gaza since Oct. 7 2023, according to the Palestinian health ministry. Critics argue these figures are unreliable as they come from a ministry in a Hamas-led government. But a recent analysis published in The Economist, along with a peer-reviewed article in the medical journal The Lancet, suggests the true death figures in Gaza could be much higher.
“I have a son who was born nine months ago. And I have this sense that he was born with a Gaza-shaped birthmark on his forehead — a mark of Cain,” Zandman said. The mark of Cain, from the Book of Genesis, is a sign God gave Cain to protect him after he killed his brother Abel.
“I have this sense that my son will walk around the world as an Israeli with that thing on his forehead. Germans live in this sense of eternal apology for the Holocaust, it’s going to be the same here,” he said.
The Israeli government has tried to crack down on protests like the one Zandman attended. In late April, Israeli police briefly prohibited Israelis from displaying images of Palestinian children killed in Gaza and using terms like "genocide" and "ethnic cleansing" on signs. But following public criticism and pressure from civil society groups, police rescinded the restrictions.
"I thought [the police order] was comically stupid. Trying to ban us has only had the effect of making our voices louder. The fact that they want to stop us from showing what's happening only reinforces the fact that it's happening," said Jed Silver, an American who moved to Israel at the end of last year.
Silver has been joining the demonstrations week after week. “People will come up to us and yell and curse. I think they’re just shocked, and there’s just a lot of unwillingness to accept that this is what their country is doing,” he said.
A woman named Maya Darnell got in between another honking motorist and the demonstrators. She’s an organizer with Standing Together, a grassroots organization that advocates social justice for all in Israel-Palestine.
“I am perpetually shocked that this is still going on. Consistently, we’ve seen that the Israeli public does not support this war or the government,” she said.
A poll from the Israel Democracy Institute in April found that 68% of Israelis believed that bringing home all the hostages was more important than toppling Hamas. Only 25% of those polled believed the latter was more important. But the Israeli government continues to defy popular opinion. On May 4th, Netanyahu’s cabinet approved a new plan to expand the war. It will see the Israeli military occupy the entirety of the Gaza Strip, flatten even larger swaths of it, and force all of Gaza’s residents into small areas in the south.
“We cannot go back to October 7. There are two main objectives before us: the return of the hostages and the defeat of Hamas,” said IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir during a visit to Gaza on Sunday.
Israel has enforced a complete blockade on humanitarian aid entering Gaza since March 2nd, following the collapse of the last ceasefire agreement. Under the new plan, Israel will renew aid to the strip, but only in designated “sterile zones.” All members of the cabinet voted in favor, except for Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, who wished to see all remaining humanitarian aid depots destroyed by Israeli forces.
Shortly after the plan was approved on May 5th, Netanyahu released a video statement saying that the purpose of the operation was not for Israeli forces to launch raids into Gaza and then retreat, but to establish a “sustained presence.” He also said the population would be relocated “for its own protection.”
“Gaza will be entirely destroyed, civilians will be sent to the south to a humanitarian zone without Hamas or terrorism, and from there they will start to leave in great numbers to third countries,” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said at a press conference on May 6th.
On May 16, NBC News reported that the Trump administration was developing a plan to force more than one million Gazans into Libya, citing five people with knowledge of the matter. The plan is reportedly under serious enough consideration for it to have been discussed with Libyan leadership. But following publication of the report, a government spokesperson told NBC News, “these reports are untrue.”
Other countries like Indonesia and Jordan have already been accepting very small numbers of Gazans for medical treatment, but have outright rejected their resettlement. No country has agreed to participate in the forced displacement and relocation of large numbers of Gazans.
The intensification of Israel’s campaign in Gaza has also drawn significant ire from world leaders. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has since labelled Israel a genocidal state. German Chancellor Olaf Sholz stated that any resettlement plans involving the expulsion of Gaza's citizens are "unacceptable." And President Donald Trump has acknowledged that “people are starving” in Gaza, as he skipped Israel on his visit to the Middle East.
Zandman fears the damage to Israel’s international reputation could be catastrophic.
“This is what being an Israeli will mean from now on. It’s not about falafel, it’s not about the high-tech industry or Jaffa. Whatever you want to think about Israel, none of that matters now. Being an Israeli is what we did in Gaza. That’s it.”
People gather after Friday prayers during a protest in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, in Amman, Jordan, on April 4, 2025.
Jordan arrests 16 accused terrorists
Jordanian authorities announced on Wednesday the arrest of 16 people accused of planning terrorist attacks inside Jordan. The country’s security services say the suspects had been under surveillance since 2021, and half a dozen of them were reportedly members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a transnational Islamist organization.
The Brotherhood, which has links to the Islamic Action Front, the largest opposition group in Jordan’s parliament, denies any involvement, and insists that it is "committed to its peaceful approach" to Jordan’s politics.
The story highlights underlying tensions in Jordan. The monarchy is a key US ally and aid-recipient, and it made peace with Israel in 1994. But Israel’s assault on Gaza in response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks generated huge anger in Jordan, where nearly half of the country’s 11.5 million people are of Palestinian origin.
The Islamic Action Front’s ferocious criticism of both Israel and King Abdullah helped it to place first in last year’s election, though the country’s weak parliament remains dominated by pro-government parties.
The bottom line: Much media attention for Israel’s war with Hamas is focused on events in Gaza, but the conflict continues to reverberate around the Middle East. Jordan’s King Abdullah is walking a particularly fine line: how to project both stability and legitimacy as war rages across the border, and tensions run high at home.
What if Palestinians want to leave Gaza?
President Trump recently shocked the world by proposing that the United States take over Gaza and that displaced Gazans should be resettled elsewhere. On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Palestinian UN Ambassador Riyad Mansour pushes back, arguing that Palestinians are deeply tied to their land and will not abandon it—even in ruins. Mansour highlights the 450,000 Palestinians who marched back to North Gaza despite the destruction, illustrating their unwavering commitment to their homeland. “We have very, very strong attachment to the land, whether it is you have a palace on it or whether it is destroyed,” he says.
Mansour also warns that efforts to encourage Palestinian relocation—whether voluntary or forced—are part of a broader strategy to erase Palestinian identity. “The Zionist movement has been working all along to push the idea that Palestine is a land without a people,” he asserts, rejecting any large-scale displacement plans. Instead, he advocates for temporary housing solutions within Gaza as reconstruction begins. This exchange is part of a larger interview that Ian Bremmer filmed with Ambassador Mansour for the latest episode of GZERO World.
Watch full episode: Who gets to decide Gaza's future?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Who gets to decide Gaza's future?
President Trump stunned the world when he proposed that the United States take over Gaza and transform it into the "Riviera of the Middle East," suggesting that displaced Gazans should be resettled elsewhere. America’s Middle Eastern allies have widely rejected the proposal, but what does it mean for the future of Gaza and its people? On GZERO World, Palestinian Ambassador to the UN Riyad Mansour joins Ian Bremmer to discuss Trump’s remarks, the realities of displacement, and what Palestinians want.
Mansour pushes back against the idea that Gazans should leave, pointing to the hundreds of thousands who have already returned to their devastated homes despite the destruction. He emphasizes the deep connection Palestinians have to their land, saying, “We have a very, very strong attachment to the land, whether it is you have a palace on it, or whether it is destroyed.” He also warns that forced displacement—no matter how it’s framed—creates instability for both Palestinians and neighboring countries like Egypt and Jordan, which have rejected any large-scale resettlement plans.
Beyond Trump’s proposal, Bremmer and Mansour examine Gaza's broader political future, the stalled peace process, and the challenges of rebuilding after the war. With global powers like China expressing interest in Palestinian statehood and an upcoming international conference on a two-state solution, could diplomatic momentum finally shift in Palestine’s favor? Mansour remains cautious but hopeful, acknowledging that “it gets so dark early in the morning before we see the sunlight.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Trump to Gazans: Does it matter where you live?
What does it matter where you live? It's a question as old as humanity. Our ancestors first traveled the world as nomads, but once we started farming and putting down less literal roots, the land beneath our feet became a crucial part of our identity.
A handful of millennia later, it's still the question driving the Israeli-Palestine conflict. Why must Israelis live in what they call Israel? Why must Palestinians live in what they call Palestine?
With a fragile ceasefire held between Israel and Hamas, President Trump stands beside Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, during a Washington press conference. Trump stuns the world, and apparently Netanyahu, by proposing to take over the Gaza Strip and turn it into, quote, "The Riviera of the Middle East." To the thousands of displaced Gazans, he says, don't go back.
President Trump is asking Gazans the same thing I asked you moments ago: What does it matter where you live? And honestly, it is a fair question for him to ask—though he's not exactly posing the same question to Israeli settlers on the West Bank. But if the region's bloody history has shown us anything, it's not so much asking the question that matters but who gets to answer it.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Palestinian UN Ambassador on Trump's radical Gaza plan and the Israel-Hamas ceasefire
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Palestinian Ambassador to the UN Riyad Mansour to discuss the future of Gaza, Trump’s radical proposal, and what Palestinians want. As a fragile ceasefire holds, Trump has suggested that the US take over Gaza and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East” while relocating displaced Gazans elsewhere. The idea has been widely rejected by America’s Middle Eastern allies, but does it signal a new phase in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
For Mansour, the issue is about more than just geopolitics—it’s about identity, history, and the right to return. He rejects the idea of mass displacement, pointing to the thousands of Palestinians who have already marched back to their destroyed neighborhoods. “We have very, very strong attachment to the land, whether it is you have a palace on it or whether it is destroyed,” he says. He also warns that Trump’s plan reflects a long-standing effort to erase Palestinian identity, arguing, “The Zionist movement has been working all along to push the idea that Palestine is a land without a people.
Mansour asks whether Gaza's future will be shaped by the people who live there or by the world's most powerful people.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
What is Trump's Gaza playbook?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Want to talk about Gaza, which has not been as much in the headlines over the past month because so much other news has been emanating from Washington post Trump's inauguration. But he made some news on Gaza and it's relevant to the ongoing war and ceasefire, which is this idea that the United States is going to take over Gaza, develop it and make it into the Riviera, a new Riviera on the Mediterranean. Certainly they have the beachfront property, they don't have the infrastructure, especially not after the war over the last year plus. Trump saying that no US troops would be involved, but it's an enormous opportunity. The Palestinians would have to be resettled. It's not a new plan. He's been talking about this for the last year together with advisors. The idea that there's an enormous amount of money, particularly from the Gulf, that could be interested in investing on the ground. That security could be provided by the Egyptians. That the Palestinians could be temporarily resettled in Egypt, maybe in Jordan.
They would, at least in principle, have the right to return. But I mean, how much money? Probably $20 billion minimum. What's temporary mean? Probably talking about a generation. Are the Palestinians likely to believe that given what's happened on the ground in the West Bank? Hard to imagine. What does governance for the Palestinians look like? Well, Trump no longer supports a two-state solution, which he did support back in the days of the Abraham Accords. Others in the region certainly do, and they, at least in principle though, they're not willing to do an awful lot to bring that about. Of course, the two-state solution, if you are Arab in the region, doesn't necessarily mean democratic governance after all, with the exception of Israel. It's not like you have democratically elected governments across these states. So you're probably talking about something more technocratic and appointed. But still, what's happened is as Trump has been discussing this, the Jordanians and the Egyptians are unhappy and saying, "No way will they take any Palestinians."
The Gulf states are unhappy. The UAE, which has discussed some of this plan with Israel directly, slow rolling how much they'd be willing to do. The Saudis saying they don't support it. And so Trump with all of that and with Prime Minister Netanyahu coming to Washington DC said, "Fine, I'll make an announcement by myself. I'll just do it if you refuse to be a part of it." And then the US diplomats were spending day and night back channeling with Gulf allies saying, "He didn't really mean he was going to take over all of it. He's not planning on taking over the land. Don't worry about it." What I would say is this is an opening strategy to try to get all of the states in the region together with Israel and negotiate what the development of Gaza would possibly look like. To get some commitments for investment. To get some commitments for security.
And there's a lot of space between all of the Palestinians are resettled because certainly they're not all interested in leaving. But some of them certainly are. And you can hardly blame them even though it's their homeland because there is nothing left and it's really hard to get humanitarian aid in, and it's not likely to get meaningfully better, even with the ceasefire, which may not hold up anytime soon. And given the fact that 80% of Israelis polled in the Jerusalem Post, which is a pretty middle of the road survey group and media institution in Israel, say they want all of the Palestinians in Gaza resettled. Given that and given the fact that if you were to engage in reconstruction that security would be necessary, there's going to be an effort to at least create buffer zones, which means more resettlements internally and a desire to allow Palestinians that want to leave the ability to leave.
And Trump would love to create some facts on the ground there. The way he's creating facts on the ground by bringing some illegal migrants in the United States to Guantanamo. There aren't facilities for them, so they set up some tents. But even if it's only one or two planes, suddenly it becomes a policy. And that's precisely what the Trump administration wants to see with the Palestinians and Gaza is that if you are getting out a few busloads or a few shiploads or a few plane loads, then suddenly it's not a question of can they be resettled, but how many and over what time? It's a very different policy discussion, and that's exactly where they and the Israeli government are looking to get to. Now, who's going to take these Palestinians? Right now nobody. Trump was asked if he was going to be willing to, if the United States what his response was, "Well, it's really too far," which doesn't seem to be his perspective for the white Afrikaners in South Africa who are even farther away.
So maybe it's not really about distance. It might be something else. But nonetheless, I do expect that when Trump says that the Egyptians and Jordanians will take some, that if they are paid to take some and what some means and what kind of population and how they're going to be vetted is all to be discussed. But some would not surprise me at all, might be a matter of hundreds or a few thousand. I don't think it's a matter of hundreds of thousands. But again, it starts that conversation. It changes the policy. And especially if we end up reopening the fighting in Gaza, which I think is quite likely over the coming weeks and months, then there becomes more urgency to engage for some of the Palestinians there in more resettlement, more willingness to. So that's what I think this is all about right now.
We are not close to a Palestinian state. We are not close to a broad agreement that would allow the Gulfies to engage fully in what Trump is demanding or to expand the Abraham Accords, to include Saudi Arabia opening diplomatic ties with Israel. But all of this is on the table and is the backdrop for what Trump is putting forward right now. So that's what we're talking about and something we'll be watching really closely. Hope everyone's doing well, and I'll talk to you all real soon.