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Trump's Middle East Love Triangle
President Trump has given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu free rein on Gaza longer than many of us expected. But Israel is not America's only Middle East partner. Is Trump now willing to pressure Netanyahu to salvage and expand ties with his Gulf allies? Eurasia Group's Firas Maksad breaks it down.
Netanyahu's visit to the Oval Office last week and the major announcement of a Gaza Peace Plan is what stole all the media headlines. But for me, the biggest story was Trump's commitment to another Middle Eastern ally, and here's why. In September, Israel undertook an unprecedented strike against an Arab Gulf capital in Doha, Qatar trying to get at Hamas officials. It failed, and what he ended up doing is putting President Trump in a bind. Saudi Arabia was quick to react. It signed a mutual defense deal with the Pakistanis, effectively extending Pakistan's nuclear umbrella to the Arab Gulf. Egypt and Turkey also reacted very quickly, papering over past differences and launching joint naval exercises just off the Israeli coast in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Trump's ties to these Arab nations run deep. He chose Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE as the first foreign destination for his visit, not only in the first term, but also more recently in his second term. During these trips, he signed billions of dollars worth of contracts in foreign investments, tech, defense, energy, and other fields. Up until this week, President Trump had actually done very little to rein in Israel. He's allowed it to operate freely, not only in Gaza, but also in Lebanon and Syria really culminating with that attack in Doha, Qatar. But he now understands that he also needs to manage relations with these critical Arab Gulf allies, otherwise, that will undermine the business deals and the security relationship that he has with that part of the world.
So will President Trump be able to maintain that critical balancing act between America's Arab allies and Israel on the one hand, or would it all come apart in the lead-up to the crucial visit of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House in November? We'll have to wait and see.
A drone view of families of hostages and their supporters protesting ahead of the two-year anniversary of the deadly October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas, demanding the immediate release of all hostages and the end of the war in Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 4, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Israelis want war to end, “Czech Trump” wins elections, China-India flights resume, The Free Press goes mainstream
35: Billionaire populist Andrej Babiš, often called “the Czech Trump” won the Czech Republic’s election, taking 35% of the vote. Babiš, who was PM from 2017-2021, is expected to form a government with two smaller ultra-euroskeptic parties, raising concern about whether Prague’s staunch support for Ukraine will continue. See our recent piece on Babiš here.
5: Direct flights between China and India will resume for the first time in five years, as the two billion-strong Asian powers continue to thaw their relationship. Flights were suspended in 2020 after a long-simmering border clash in the Himalayas erupted into open conflict. The move comes as India, long a partner of the US, looks for new allies in the wake of Donald Trump’s massive new tariffs and visa restrictions.
150 million: US media giant Paramount, which owns CBS, has officially purchased the upstart opinion and investigative journalism website The Free Press for $150 million. As part of the deal, Free Press founder Bari Weiss will be installed as editor-in-chief of CBS News.
Spiritual counsel from Czech writer Ivan Klíma, who died at 94 on Saturday. Klíma, who survived a Nazi concentration camp as a child and later insisted on remaining in communist Czechoslovakia to publish clandestinely rather than flee into exile, was one of the 20th century’s greatest critics of totalitarianism. Čest jeho památce 🕊️
Could Israel's Gaza gamble be paying off?
On the latest episode of the GZERO World podcast, the paradox at the heart of Israeli foreign policy today. Militarily, Israel is dominant. Diplomatically, it’s more isolated than ever.
This week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his fourth trip to the White House since President Trump returned to office, standing beside him to unveil what Trump called a “landmark” Gaza peace proposal. But behind the bold language is a growing distance between Israel and the world. Gaza has been devastated, Hamas is on its heels, and yet, the cost to Israel’s global standing continues to rise.
Former US diplomat and Middle East peace negotiator Aaron David Miller joins Ian to unpack the uncomfortable truth: Israel may be winning on the battlefield, but it’s losing support in global capitals, and possibly at home.
“Not a single cost or consequence has been imposed by any Arab state on Israel,” Miller says. “They’ve done nothing. The Arab states are running scared of Trump. They’re either afraid of him or they want something from him.”
From European governments pulling investments and recognizing Palestinian statehood, to rising grassroots pushback across American campuses, Israel’s brand is eroding—even as Netanyahu locks arms more tightly with Trump.
Israeli protestors hold up pictures of Israeli soldiers held by Hamas in Gaza during a demonstration earlier this week following the announcement of a Gaza ceasefire proposal by US President Donald Trump and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hard Numbers: Trump sets Hamas deadline, Venezuela vents at US, Diddy awaits fate, Church of England appoints first female leader
2200: Donald Trump has given Hamas until Sunday at 2200 GMT – which is 6pm in Washington, DC –to accept the Gaza deal that he and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu proposed earlier this week. The framework calls for the release of Hamas-held hostages in exchange for Israeli-held Palestinian prisoners, a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops, an internationally-overseen transitional Gaza government, and amnesty for Hamas fighters who lay down arms. If the group refuses, Trump said, “all hell” will break loose.
5: Venezuela accused the US of “provocation” after detecting five US fighter jets near its Caribbean coast on Thursday. The flyover follows Trump telling Congress that the US is in an “armed conflict” and recent US strikes on alleged Venezuela-linked drug-trafficking boats. Caracas fears Washington’s real aim is to oust President Nicolás Maduro – read what that could look like here.
11: Music mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs will be sentenced Friday in Manhattan federal court after his recent conviction on charges that he transported women across state lines for prostitution. Acquitted of more serious charges, he faces a wide sentencing range: with the defense seeking no more than 14 months, while prosecutors want 11 years.
1: Dame Sarah Mullally, former chief nursing officer for England, has been appointed the first female archbishop of Canterbury to lead the Church of England. The church did not allow women to become bishops until 2014.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during ‘Christian Conference’ in Jerusalem July 27, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Pressure mounts on Bibi, Ivorian leader announces another run, China’s top property firm to delist
Netanyahu faces the squeeze
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is coming under criticism from both sides of the political spectrum amid the desperate humanitarian situation in Gaza. Far-right US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) declared on Monday that Israel was committing genocide in the enclave, while center-left UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Tuesday he’d recognize Palestinian statehood unless Israel met certain conditions by September. Given the importance of Israel’s relationship with the US, Netanyahu will be far more concerned about whether MAGA figures are distancing from Israel, as well as a Gallup poll that showed just 32% of Americans approve of Israel’s military action in Gaza (down from 50% at the start of the war).
Ivorian leader announces he’s running for fourth term
After winning a third term in 2020, Côte d'Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara hinted that he wouldn’t run again. Five years on, the 83-year-old has changed his mind, announcing another run and starting the race in pole position – the election is on October 25. Located on Africa’s West Coast, Côte d'Ivoire is home to over 30 million people and is the world’s top producer of cocoa. Its economy has been booming lately, but there has also been political unrest: Ouattara’s decision to run for a third term angered many, and he had to deny widespread – and false – rumors of a coup earlier this year.Embattled Chinese property developer to be delisted
The troubles continue for Evergrande, once one of China’s largest property developers. After being ordered into liquidation earlier this year, the firm will be delisted from Hong Kong’s stock exchange after failing to produce a viable plan to restructure $23 billion in offshore debt. Evergrande’s stunning collapse has become a symbol of China’s broader economic slowdown as consumer demand weakens, the workforce shrinks, and debt climbs.
Smoke rises during Israeli strikes amid the Israeli military operation in Deir Al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, July 21, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Israeli forces advance into new Gaza area, DRC to ink peace deal with rebels, Chilean crime wave pushes voters rightward
Israel advances for first time into central Gazan refuge city
Israeli ground forces have pushed into Deir al-Balah in central Gaza, an area that the IDF has previously largely avoided because it is believed to be where the remaining Israeli hostages are held. The incursion has raised concern for the safety of the many Gazans who have taken refuge there over the course of the conflict. Israel says it aims to dismantle the remains of Hamas’ infrastructure, but families of the hostages have demanded that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appear before them and the public to clarify the risks to their loved ones.
Democratic Republic of Congo to sign peace pact with rebels
The Democratic Republic of Congo and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group have agreed to sign a peace deal by Aug 18, following months of Qatari mediation. The US, which has facilitated separate talks between the Congo and Rwanda, is pushing for peace in the long-running conflict, partly in order to facilitate greater Western investment in the Congo's critical mineral resources. For more background, see our recent piece here.
Crime pushes Chile to the right ahead of election
Deep political polarization is afflicting every region of the world these days, but the trend is especially pronounced in Chile ahead of its November presidential election. Current leftwinger Gabriel Boric must bow out due to term limits, and while polls put Communist candidate Jeanette Jara in first place for now, just behind her is ultraconservative Catholic José Antonio Kast, an open admirer of former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet. Given the popularity of several other rightwing candidates, Kast would be the favorite to win a runoff. A key campaign issue: a recent crime wave driven in part by criminal gangs composed of migrants from Venezuela.
U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the entrance of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 7, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Bibi heads to Washington, Deadly Texas floods get political, Kenyan police shoot protesters
Bibi’s back in Washington
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets US President Donald Trump at the White House this evening, their third encounter there this year. Trump is pressing for a ceasefire in Gaza, after claiming Friday that a 60-day deal could be reached, in which Hamas would return 10 living and 18 dead hostages, Israeli forces would withdraw to a buffer zone along Gaza’s borders with Israel and Egypt, and aid would be distributed again by UN agencies and the Palestinian Red Crescent. As of this writing, however, indirect talks between Israel and Hamas were still ongoing.
Killer floods sweep through Texas
Even as rescuers are still searching for survivors of the Texas floods that have so far killed more than 80 people, including many children, the political finger pointing has begun. Homeland Security Kristi Noem blamed outdated National Weather Service systems, while critics say federal workforce cuts – including to weather forecasting agencies – have weakened disaster preparedness and left communities more vulnerable to catastrophic weather events.
Kenya’s police open fire on anti-government protesters
Police are cracking down on mass protests marking the 35th anniversary of Kenya’s return to democracy. Demonstrators and rioters – angry about cost of living, corruption, and police brutality – are calling for the resignation of President William Ruto, who won the 2022 election. Ruto’s alliance with the main opposition group has so far been a bulwark against anger from the streets – could that change? The next election is set for 2027.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a discussion on the subject of hostages kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack, in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem, November 18, 2024.
What We’re Watching: Bibi on the brink, US-China truce, Elon-Trump detente
Will Israel’s government be dissolved?
The warning signs are flashing for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the Knesset prepares to vote later today on whether to dissolve his government. The crisis was triggered when a pair of ultra-Orthodox parties in Bibi’s coalition signaled last week they would ditch the coalition over plans to end certain military exemptions. For more on what the collapse of Netanyahu’s government could mean, see here.
US and China reach tariff ceasefire
The United States and China reportedly agreed to a trade truce Wednesday, with US President Donald Trump saying Chinese imports will now face a 55% tariff while Beijing keeps a 10% levy on US products. Importantly, China has restarted its exports of high-tech magnets and rare earth minerals, and the White House reaffirmed Chinese students’ access to US colleges. Still, details of any larger deal covering broader issues of market access and technological competition are far from being ironed out.
Musk v Trump: Is it too late now to say sorry?
Elon Musk appears to be tapping out in his highly-public feud with US President Donald Trump, posting on X (early) this morning that he “regrets” the insults he’s hurled at the president.We’ll be watching to see if the detente holds between these two famously volatile figures. With midterms on the horizon, it matters: Musk’s financial firepower is significant, as we saw here.
For more: Ian Bremmer sat down with Semafor Co-Founder and Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith to discuss the Musk-Trump beef and what it tells us about political power in America today.