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Bibi unfazed by domestic and international pressure
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is refusing to budge, despite protests in Israel’s streets and calls for change within the US Congress. US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — America’s highest-ranking Jewish politician — recently called on Israel to hold fresh elections, stating that Bibi has “lost his way.” This weekend, thousands of Israelis demonstrated to demand early elections and the release of hostages — with protesters in Tel Aviv being met by water canons.
On Sunday, Bibi said Schumer's call for elections was "totally inappropriate,” claiming that the majority of Israelis support his goal of destroying Hamas. He also vowed not to change course on Rafah, where he has threatened a ground offensive. “We will operate in Rafah,” he said. “It will take a few weeks, but it will happen.”
Israel notably launched a raid on al-Shifa hospital in Gaza overnight Sunday, with reports of heavy gunfire. Israeli military leaders said "senior Hamas terrorists" had been launching attacks from the hospital.
Meanwhile, the suspended cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas were expected to resume on Sunday in Qatar for the first time since the start of Ramadan, with Hamas reportedly proposing a three-stage plan to end the fighting with prisoner and hostage exchanges. Israeli media reported Israel's delegation hoped to bring home around 40 prisoners in exchange for a six-week truce.
Family members of the hostages are pushing Bibi to make a deal to bring their loved ones home, but his plans for Rafah seem to conflict with establishing a cease-fire that could allow for such exchanges, much less a lasting peace.
Israel’s plans for Rafah face fierce opposition
Israel announced its intention to conduct ground operations in the southern Gaza town of Rafah to root out four Hamas battalions it says remain based there. The plan faces opposition from the US and other nations, however, over concerns for the safety of the 1.4 million displaced Palestinians sheltering in Rafah.
On Saturday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahusaid, “We’re going to do it while providing safe passage for the civilian population.” But it’s unclear where such a large number of people can go.
Egypt is concerned that Israel's offensive could see Palestinians flee into the Sinai Peninsula and never be permitted to return to Gaza. Cairo has also said it opposes increased Israeli military activity near its borders and warned it will suspend its decades-old peace treaty with Israel if troops are deployed. The treaty governs the deployment of forces on both sides of the border and is seen as crucial to maintaining stability in the region.
These new tensions threaten to derail ongoing cease-fire and hostage release talks mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar. An unnamed Hamas official stated that an invasion of Rafah would “blow up” these negotiations.
As Israel prepared for a ground invasion of Rafah, it pummeled the town with strikes on Monday to provide cover for an overnight operation that resulted in the rescue of two Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Dozens of Palestinians were reportedly killed in the process.
Bibi rejects Hamas’ ‘delusional’ cease-fire offer
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday forcefully rejected a proposal from Hamas for a 135-day cease-fire involving a phased exchange of hostages and Palestinian prisoners – and the eventual withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
Describing Hamas’ terms as “delusional,” Netanyahu said Israel would continue to pursue “absolute victory.” The Israeli leader has repeatedly said the war won’t end until Hamas is destroyed, and he is making it clear that he will not accept any proposal that allows for the militant group to retain control of even a sliver of Gaza.
A diplomatic dead-end. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday signaled that Washington will keep pushing for a new truce and hostage deal. But he acknowledged that “there is a lot of work to be done.”
With both Bibi and Hamas unwilling to compromise, the war is poised to continue. Meanwhile, Israel is seemingly shifting its offensive to Rafah, where many displaced Palestinians are gathered.
UN chief António Guterres on Wednesday warned that Israel focusing its ground operations on Rafah could “exponentially increase what is already a humanitarian nightmare with untold regional consequences."
Can Bibi’s career survive the Israel-Hamas war?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced growing calls to resign since the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas. In recent days, protesters have gathered outside his home. The war in Gaza isn’t going well. Hamas is far from being destroyed, and roughly 130 hostages remain in Gaza – prompting their family members to storm parliament in outrage. Meanwhile, there are questions as to whether Bibi’s governing coalition will fall apart.
It often seems as though the 74-year-old leader is a breath away from being pushed out of office. But is this war really the last chapter in the chaotic career of Israel’s longest-tenured prime minister?
“After October 7th, everybody was saying, ‘I think he's finished. He's done.’ And he's still there. I think it's probably a matter of time, but it's already been several months,” says Mairav Zonszein, a senior Israel-Palestine analyst for the International Crisis Group who’s based in Israel, adding that it’s “hard to see what the specific tipping point will be that will bring him down.”
Even before Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, Netanyahu’s political career was on thin ice as he contended with a corruption trial and mass protests over his government’s judicial overhaul plan. The Israeli leader has since faced blame for security failures surrounding the Hamas attack, on top of fierce criticism over the hostage situation and international criticism over the war in Gaza.
But Bibi has said he is opposed to a permanent cease-fire, even if it means bringing the hostages home – contending that it would only be a matter of time before Hamas attacked again. The current negotiations are reportedly for a limited cease-fire.
It’s complicated. Recent polling paints a complex picture in terms of how Israelis feel about the war – they’re angry at the people charged with protecting them – the ones running the war – but strongly support the fight against Hamas.
One recent poll from Tel Aviv University’s Peace Index showed most Israelis (53%) think the government has “no clear goals” in the war, but it also found that a large majority of the Jewish public think the IDF uses adequate or too little force in Gaza and 88% believe the extent of Palestinian casualties is justified – even as the international community increasingly criticizes Israel over the rising death toll. But the poll also found the Jewish public is relatively split on whether the government should prioritize eliminating Hamas at all costs (50%) or getting the hostages returned in any way possible (48%).
Still, one thing is clear: The Israeli public overwhelmingly disapproves of Netanyahu, with only 15% wanting him to stay in power after the war, according to a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute. And many seem to believe that Bibi views the war with Hamas as a political lifeline. A recent Channel 13 survey found 53% of Israelis believe Netanyahu’s wartime decisions are primarily motivated by personal interest.
“There’s a weird kind of paradox or conflict between the support that the war effort has – the legitimacy and consensus around wanting to remove Hamas – but then there's also consensus that Netanyahu has to go. Nobody trusts him,” says Zonszein, adding, “Everybody thinks that he's just dragging this out because it keeps him in power.”
Wartime elections? It’s becoming increasingly clear that Netanyahu’s goal of eliminating Hamas is “not feasible,” says Zonszein, and members of Bibi’s war cabinet have begun to openly challenge him on this.
Gadi Eisenkot, a war cabinet minister and former chief of staff of the IDF, recently said that discussions of destroying Hamas amount to “tall tales.” Eisenkot, whose son was killed in Gaza in December, said that elections should be held in the coming months.
Dozens of ex-top national security officials on Friday sent a letter to Israel’s president and speaker of parliament that pushed for elections and Netanyahu’s removal – referring to him as an “existential” threat to Israel.
In the end, rising public anger over the lack of movement on bringing the hostages home could be what brings Bibi down. Though it would be a “crazy scenario,” says Zonszein, for Israelis to go to the polls amid what is “probably the most decisive war Israel's had since its founding,” if a hostage deal isn’t reached in soon, “the pressure to have an election will increase.”
But a lot has to happen for elections to occur, and if there is a deal that brings the hostages home, it’s difficult to say what that would mean for Netanyahu’s political future.
“It seems like the only clear victory that he can get at this point is getting all the hostages back,” says Zonszein, but if this involves stopping the war and releasing Palestinian prisoners, it could trigger far-right members of his coalition to leave – putting Bibi in a precarious position.
But getting hostages released “would definitely be a huge relief and a huge win for Israel,” Zonszein adds, which has been “fighting with really no results so far.”
With the cease-fire over, it’s back to war for Israel and Hamas
War has resumed in Gaza following the end of the seven-day cease-fire between Hamas and the state of Israel, with each side claiming the other caused the collapse. Beyond the blame game, however, where do things go from here?
Hamas and the hostages
To date, Israel has grappled with two key objectives: destroying the Hamas threat and recovering all hostages. With the breakdown of negotiations and the revelation that many hostages are in the hands of groups other than Hamas, the second objective has become more difficult. Nonetheless, the White House is reportedly pressuring both sides to come back to the bargaining table.
Some US politicians would take a different approach. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday that the hostage impasse could be resolved by threatening Iran, the sponsor of Hamas. “I would go to Iran and say listen, you need to tell Hamas to let these hostages go,” he said. “If you don’t, you’re going to start paying a heavier price.”
Another pressure point could come if Israel achieves more of its military objectives, including the assassination of senior Hamas leaders. Israeli political analysts said the death of Yahya Sinwar, the presumed architect of the Oct. 7 attacks, would be considered a victory. “If the Israeli military succeeded in assassinating a major Hamas figure, I expect Netanyahu would seek to take credit,” said Anshel Pfeffer, a columnist for Haaretz newspaper, and author of “Bibi: The Turbulent Life and Times of Benjamin Netanyahu.”
Bibi in the balance
At stake is not just the fate of the remaining hostages and the Palestinians in Gaza, but the political future of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. A whopping 80% of Israelis believe Netanyahu was responsible for security failures that led to the attacks of Oct. 7. Netanyahu is now facing even greater criticism after it emerged that his government dismissed intelligence reports about potential Hamas attacks a year ago.
Since the start of the war, Netanyahu’s polling numbers have declined steadily. In the most recent poll released on Friday by the Israeli newspaper Ma’ariv, 30% of respondents said that Bibi was the best fit for prime minister, while 49% preferred former Defense Minister Benny Gantz. On top of this, Netanyahu’s trial on corruption charges, which had been suspended, resumes today in the Jerusalem District Court. If convicted, Bibi could face several years in jail unless his political allies come to his aid, either by legalizing some of the “crimes” he is accused of or stopping his trial entirely.
Netanyahu: “Now is the time for war”
Announcing on Wednesday that Israel had formed a unity government with the opposition, PM Benjamin Netanyahu said at a press conference that “we put aside all differences to face an enemy worse than ISIS.”
The war cabinet includes the PM, along with his Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, both from the right-wing Likud Party, as well as leader of the National Unity Party Benny Gantz, a former military chief of staff and head of the defense ministry.
Uniting a divided nation. “The most important action [now] is to establish the unity of the nation,” Netanyahu said in an attempt to convey unity to Israel’s enemies. Netanyahu himself has come under intense scrutiny in recent months for driving a wedge through Israeli society and politics by trying to diminish the power of the country’s judiciary.
Along with the military, the two political factions will oversee decision-making for the duration of the war in the Gaza Strip. No legislation unrelated to the war effort will be passed in the Knesset during this time, according to a statement released by both sides.
Crucially, this move sidelines far-right members of Netanyahu's coalition government, like National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who, according to Haaretz, rallied against the formation of a unity government that would dilute his own power.
In his address to the country, Netanyahu also confirmed new details of the Hamas attack against southern Israeli communities on Saturday, including revelations that families had been burnt alive, while children were handcuffed before being abused and killed. The gruesome imagery is indeed galvanizing a previously-divided people, but it is also stoking public rage at the government and intelligence community for failing to protect its citizens.
Prospects of a humanitarian corridor. As Israel continues to bomb Gaza and prepares for an imminent ground invasion, the Palestinian death toll is rising. Key Hamas leaders have reportedly been killed, along with hundreds of civilians.
The US, for its part, says it is working with Israel and Egypt to secure a humanitarian corridor for Gazans that would help evacuate civilians, after Israel imposed a blockade on the coastal enclave, cutting off water and food deliveries, and electricity. But this effort is complicated by the fact that Israel has in recent days bombed the only crossing connecting Gaza to the Sinai Peninsula. Meanwhile, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, who has made national security his top priority, has also made it crystal clear that he does not want to absorb an influx of Gazans or risk terrorists crossing the border. “National security is my first responsibility and under no circumstances will there be any complacency or negligence,” Sissi said in recent days.
The US’ stance. After Biden on Tuesday addressed the “sheer evil” of the Hamas attack, there are now reports the US could soon send a second aircraft carrier group to the Eastern Mediterranean in order to deter Iran and its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah from joining Hamas in the fight against Israel.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel this morning to meet with Israeli leaders, and will then head to Jordan where the issue of securing the release of civilian hostages taken by Hamas, including many Americans, will likely be the focus.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is Jewish, said that he wants to visit Israel in a show of solidarity, putting an embarrassing spotlight on Netanyahu who has been broadly criticized for failing to adequately back Kyiv amid the Russian invasion.
Is Israel in for a long war?
“We are at war,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Saturday after Israel awoke to a surprise attack from Hamas.
The Palestinian militants launched an early, three-pronged assault, coming from land, sea, and air – entering Israel from the Gaza Strip, invading several Israeli towns, and firing thousands of rockets as far away as Tel Aviv and even Jerusalem.
Scores of Israelis have been killed, several hundred have been injured, and dozens have reportedly been taken hostage – some have even been taken to Gaza, impacting Israel’s options for reprisals. Still, Israel has responded with massive strikes on Gazan cities, and officials say nearly 200 Palestinians have been killed. The death toll is expected to rise.
The timing: The surprise attack comes on the heels of the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked Israel simultaneously from the south and the north, nearly overwhelming Israel’s poorly prepared army. Today’s attack coincides with the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah marking the end of the yearly Torah readings.
More broadly, it also caps a year in which Israel – having just celebrated its 75th anniversary – has been racked by months of protests over Netanyahu’s efforts to weaken the power of the judiciary. His overhaul, which prevents the High Court from overriding government decisions the judges deem unreasonable, has had many Israelis questioning the sanctity of their country’s democratic system – and their trust in government.
Why now? The head of the military wing of Hamas, Muhammad Deif, explained that the attack was in response to the 16-year-long blockade of Gaza, Israeli raids in West Bank cities, violence at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which Jews call the Temple Mount, and increasing settlement violence.
Tensions have indeed been mounting this year, especially in the West Bank, where Israel has launched several raids. One of the biggest was conducted in July in the northern city of Jenin amid reports that Iran was arming militants there.
These moves came on the heels of a raid at the Al-Aqsa Mosque in April, which led to Palestinians responding with rocket fire from Gaza and even prompted concerns about Hezbollah interference from Lebanon. While some rockets were fired from Lebanon, the feared escalation never came.
There was also fighting between Iran-backed Islamic Jihad militants and Israeli troops in recent months, and last month saw a series of skirmishes along the Gaza border, with Palestinians reportedly hurling explosives and firing at Israeli soldiers.
How could this happen? Today’s attack, much like the one in 1973, took Israeli intelligence by surprise, with Hamas executing a well-planned and coordinated operation. Some have even likened it to an Israeli 9/11.
It’s an “intelligence failing for the security establishment – that’s how it’s being perceived right now in Israel,” says Sofia Meranto, a Middle East analyst for Eurasia Group.
“This is different from what we’ve seen from previous Gaza-Israel confrontations,” she adds.
While it’s too early to pinpoint the exact failures on the ground, what we do know is that Israeli soldiers now face the gravest security threat their country has seen in decades.
More scrutiny on the intelligence breach will come later. But for now, Meranto says, there will be “a rally round the flag effect” with Israeli politicians uniting to deal with the acute security issue.
How the world is reacting: The invasion has major implications for governments around the world, with most of the major and middle powers quick to outline their positions.
Europe and the US issued strong support for Israel. President Joe Biden said he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and affirmed “unwavering” support for Israel’s security and its right to defend itself against “Hamas terrorists.”
“The United States stands with Israel,” he said in a national broadcast on Saturday afternoon.
“There’s never any justification for terrorist attacks,” he added, noting that “Israel has the right to defend itself and its people, full stop.”
Biden also said his team is in touch with leaders throughout the region and cautioned that “this is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage. The world is watching.”
European leaders largely echoed Washington’s support. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tweeted “Germany condemns these attacks by Hamas and stands by Israel,” and French President Emmanuel Macron wrote: “France stands in solidarity with Israel and the Israelis, committed to their security and their right to defend themselves.”
The European Union, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Poland, and the Czech Republic issued similar statements.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Israel's “right to self-defense is unquestionable” and urged Ukrainian citizens in Israel — hundreds of thousands of whom live in the country — to obey instructions from security forces.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who relies on support from Israeli archrival Iran for his war in Ukraine, tried to land somewhere in the middle. He urged both sides to “implement an immediate ceasefire” and rely on assistance from the international community to reach a lasting peace — a statement so banal and out of touch it could almost be interpreted as facetious.
Some states in the Middle East also aimed for circumspection. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called for “restraint from all parties," as did the Egyptian foreign ministry — although they added there would be “grave consequences” — and the Saudi Foreign Ministry called for an “immediate cessation of violence.”
Washington had been trying hard to put together a Saudi-Israeli peace deal, including quietly dispatching officials to Riyadh two weeks ago. That’s likely another casualty of this war.
Across much of the rest of the region, however, support for Hamas has been unequivocal. An advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader reportedly said Tehran “will stand by the Palestinian fighters until the liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem," while Qatar’s foreign ministry said Israel alone was responsible for the violence. Kuwait also blamed Israel for “blatant attacks.”
Further afield, India and Japan both said they stand in support of Israel. Other US allies in the region, including South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand have not issued official statements – although some reports indicate that Thai and Filipino guest workers in Israel may have fallen into the hands of Hamas.
The biggest question mark is China. Beijing has been seeking to improve its Middle East ties in the last year but tries not to involve itself in local conflicts.
Will this be a long war? Hamas said today’s invasion was just the beginning of “Operation Al-Aqsa Storm,” and Netanyahu has declared a state of emergency and mounted an “extensive reserve mobilization.”
The potential of other regional military forces getting involved could have enormous security implications. Israel feels an indirect threat from Iran, which supports Hamas, on multiple sides.
Israel is also ramping up defenses along the border with Lebanon, where the Iranian-backed military group, Hezbollah, operates.
Hezbollah’s leader praised Hamas's attacks on Saturday, raising concern that the group could join the fighting and escalate the conflict by invading from the north, but it doesn’t look like Hezbollah is playing a major role as of yet.
If that changes, Israel's response could extend well beyond Gaza, raising the prospects of a protracted war.
But for now, just containing the security risks within Israel will take some time. To do that, Israel has ordered schools to close and will tell most civilians to shelter in place. Meanwhile, defense forces will be trying to clear out the militants, “street by street, neighborhood by neighborhood,” says Meranto.
Israeli advisors are meeting today to discuss the response in Gaza and whether to launch a bigger operation.
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: the attacks by Hamas on Israel are "no less than Israel's 9/11." Watch here.
Israel’s divisive judicial reforms becoming law
On Monday, Israel’s Knesset (parliament) passed the first bill of PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu’s controversial judicial reform bill.
Many Israelis were not happy about it. Police used a water cannon to disperse anti-government activists who had chained themselves outside the building, while President Isaac Herzog failed to negotiate a last-minute compromise. Banks, the influential tech sector, and part of the military have joined the protest against the divisive legislation.
Bibi was just released from the hospital, where on Sunday he underwent emergency pacemaker surgery after a heart-monitoring device detected a temporary arrhythmia. Before Netanyahu, 73, was briefly sedated, he temporarily handed power over to his top deputy, Justice Minister Yariv Levin.
Levin is considered the architect of the overhaul, which would curb the High Court’s power to overrule administrative decisions, including a nine-member committee that selects judges. Critics say the law would give the ruling far-right coalition carte blanche on court appointments, and enable Bibi to interfere with his ongoing corruption trial. (He denies this and insists the reforms are necessary to curb the powers of an activist judiciary.)
Popular opposition to the bill peaked over the weekend, as throngs of Israelis flooded the streets of Jerusalem for a 29th straight week of protests, some after marching for five days from Tel Aviv. A growing number of reservists say they will not report to duty if the reforms become law, and several former army top brass, police commissioners, and intelligence chiefs penned a public letter to Netanyahu, accusing him of being “directly responsible for the serious harm” to Israel’s security.
But Bibi is unlikely to cave to any pressure. He knows that his fragile coalition government is toast if he doesn’t push ahead with the reforms.