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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during ‘Christian Conference’ in Jerusalem July 27, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Pressure mounts on Bibi, Ivorian leader announces another run, China’s top property firm to delist
Netanyahu faces the squeeze
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is coming under criticism from both sides of the political spectrum amid the desperate humanitarian situation in Gaza. Far-right US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) declared on Monday that Israel was committing genocide in the enclave, while center-left UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Tuesday he’d recognize Palestinian statehood unless Israel met certain conditions by September. Given the importance of Israel’s relationship with the US, Netanyahu will be far more concerned about whether MAGA figures are distancing from Israel, as well as a Gallup poll that showed just 32% of Americans approve of Israel’s military action in Gaza (down from 50% at the start of the war).
Ivorian leader announces he’s running for fourth term
After winning a third term in 2020, Côte d'Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara hinted that he wouldn’t run again. Five years on, the 83-year-old has changed his mind, announcing another run and starting the race in pole position – the election is on October 25. Located on Africa’s West Coast, Côte d'Ivoire is home to over 30 million people and is the world’s top producer of cocoa. Its economy has been booming lately, but there has also been political unrest: Ouattara’s decision to run for a third term angered many, and he had to deny widespread – and false – rumors of a coup earlier this year.Embattled Chinese property developer to be delisted
The troubles continue for Evergrande, once one of China’s largest property developers. After being ordered into liquidation earlier this year, the firm will be delisted from Hong Kong’s stock exchange after failing to produce a viable plan to restructure $23 billion in offshore debt. Evergrande’s stunning collapse has become a symbol of China’s broader economic slowdown as consumer demand weakens, the workforce shrinks, and debt climbs.
Smoke rises during Israeli strikes amid the Israeli military operation in Deir Al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, July 21, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Israeli forces advance into new Gaza area, DRC to ink peace deal with rebels, Chilean crime wave pushes voters rightward
Israel advances for first time into central Gazan refuge city
Israeli ground forces have pushed into Deir al-Balah in central Gaza, an area that the IDF has previously largely avoided because it is believed to be where the remaining Israeli hostages are held. The incursion has raised concern for the safety of the many Gazans who have taken refuge there over the course of the conflict. Israel says it aims to dismantle the remains of Hamas’ infrastructure, but families of the hostages have demanded that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appear before them and the public to clarify the risks to their loved ones.
Democratic Republic of Congo to sign peace pact with rebels
The Democratic Republic of Congo and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group have agreed to sign a peace deal by Aug 18, following months of Qatari mediation. The US, which has facilitated separate talks between the Congo and Rwanda, is pushing for peace in the long-running conflict, partly in order to facilitate greater Western investment in the Congo's critical mineral resources. For more background, see our recent piece here.
Crime pushes Chile to the right ahead of election
Deep political polarization is afflicting every region of the world these days, but the trend is especially pronounced in Chile ahead of its November presidential election. Current leftwinger Gabriel Boric must bow out due to term limits, and while polls put Communist candidate Jeanette Jara in first place for now, just behind her is ultraconservative Catholic José Antonio Kast, an open admirer of former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet. Given the popularity of several other rightwing candidates, Kast would be the favorite to win a runoff. A key campaign issue: a recent crime wave driven in part by criminal gangs composed of migrants from Venezuela.
U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the entrance of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 7, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Bibi heads to Washington, Deadly Texas floods get political, Kenyan police shoot protesters
Bibi’s back in Washington
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets US President Donald Trump at the White House this evening, their third encounter there this year. Trump is pressing for a ceasefire in Gaza, after claiming Friday that a 60-day deal could be reached, in which Hamas would return 10 living and 18 dead hostages, Israeli forces would withdraw to a buffer zone along Gaza’s borders with Israel and Egypt, and aid would be distributed again by UN agencies and the Palestinian Red Crescent. As of this writing, however, indirect talks between Israel and Hamas were still ongoing.
Killer floods sweep through Texas
Even as rescuers are still searching for survivors of the Texas floods that have so far killed more than 80 people, including many children, the political finger pointing has begun. Homeland Security Kristi Noem blamed outdated National Weather Service systems, while critics say federal workforce cuts – including to weather forecasting agencies – have weakened disaster preparedness and left communities more vulnerable to catastrophic weather events.
Kenya’s police open fire on anti-government protesters
Police are cracking down on mass protests marking the 35th anniversary of Kenya’s return to democracy. Demonstrators and rioters – angry about cost of living, corruption, and police brutality – are calling for the resignation of President William Ruto, who won the 2022 election. Ruto’s alliance with the main opposition group has so far been a bulwark against anger from the streets – could that change? The next election is set for 2027.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a discussion on the subject of hostages kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack, in Israel's parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem, November 18, 2024.
What We’re Watching: Bibi on the brink, US-China truce, Elon-Trump detente
Will Israel’s government be dissolved?
The warning signs are flashing for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as the Knesset prepares to vote later today on whether to dissolve his government. The crisis was triggered when a pair of ultra-Orthodox parties in Bibi’s coalition signaled last week they would ditch the coalition over plans to end certain military exemptions. For more on what the collapse of Netanyahu’s government could mean, see here.
US and China reach tariff ceasefire
The United States and China reportedly agreed to a trade truce Wednesday, with US President Donald Trump saying Chinese imports will now face a 55% tariff while Beijing keeps a 10% levy on US products. Importantly, China has restarted its exports of high-tech magnets and rare earth minerals, and the White House reaffirmed Chinese students’ access to US colleges. Still, details of any larger deal covering broader issues of market access and technological competition are far from being ironed out.
Musk v Trump: Is it too late now to say sorry?
Elon Musk appears to be tapping out in his highly-public feud with US President Donald Trump, posting on X (early) this morning that he “regrets” the insults he’s hurled at the president.We’ll be watching to see if the detente holds between these two famously volatile figures. With midterms on the horizon, it matters: Musk’s financial firepower is significant, as we saw here.
For more: Ian Bremmer sat down with Semafor Co-Founder and Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith to discuss the Musk-Trump beef and what it tells us about political power in America today.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu followed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir walk inside the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem March 27, 2025.
Netanyahu’s coalition is crumbling
Israel’s ruling coalition is facing its most serious crisis yet. Two of the country’s ultra-Orthodox parties — United Torah Judaism and Shas — announced they are quitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government over proposed changes to long-standing rules that exempt ultra-Orthodox students from Israel’s military draft. The split is likely to collapse the coalition. The centrist opposition Yesh Atid party has already filed a motion to dissolve the Knesset, Israel’s legislature. A vote on that, set for June 11, is likely to succeed, triggering a general election by November.
The withdrawal of the two parties came in response to a bill introduced by a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party that would curtail military exemptions. The ultra-Orthodox community has largely been exempted from military service since Israel’s founding, but that arrangement is under growing strain as the Gaza war stretches Israel’s manpower, forcing repeated reserve call-ups that have generated increasing public anger at this exemption.
“This issue — ultra-Orthodox conscription — is part of a divide that’s governed Israel for 70 years. It’s not new, but it’s symbolic of the larger cultural war,” says Middle East Institute Scholar Dr. Ilan Peleg.
But this was just the straw that broke the camel’s back. Netanyahu’s coalition has been becoming increasingly fractured as polarization and government dissatisfaction has risen in the country. The prime minister is personally motivated to remain in charge to preserve his legal immunity amid ongoing corruption trials. To do so, he has relied on two key groups to stay in power: ultra-nationalists who want to escalate the war in Gaza beyond what much of the Israeli public is willing to tolerate, and ultra-Orthodox parties who insist on maintaining exemptions from military service — a stance that has generated resentment among some non-Orthodox Israelis, who bear the brunt of the war effort.
With the ultra-Orthodox unlikely to return without a clear legislative fix — and none is forthcoming — the odds of a government collapse are high.
This upheaval raises big questions.
The first is Iran. “The threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program is one of the few unifying issues among Israelis,” says Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “A successful raid that delays Iran’s ability to acquire a nuclear weapon could strengthen Netanyahu’s domestic position.”
But a dramatic move against Iran, without strong US backing — particularly from President Donald Trump, who currently favors diplomacy — would carry major risks.
“Even if it’s possible technically to do it, maybe desired by Israelis,” Peleg explains, “the American veto would be a major factor on the negative side.”
The second is Gaza. Early elections would raise pressure on Netanyahu to secure more hostage releases from Gaza and strike a temporary ceasefire — with growing war fatigue and frustration over hostages likely to weaken Likud at the polls.
If the government collapses and elections are held, the increasingly unpopular Netanyahu could lose his grip on power. He would be challenged by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, whose newly-registered right-wing party is currently leading in the polls.
Netanyahu, a skilled politician who has held the premiership in several stints since the 1990s, has come back from more than one prediction of his demise. Will this time be different?
Maksad says that while it’s “not impossible that [Netanyahu] could manage to return the premiership… It would be an uphill battle.”
Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) speaks during a marathon address from the US Senate floor on Tuesday, April 1, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Booker sets record for longest Senate speech, Israel expands latest Gaza offensive, Netanyahu and Orbán defy the ICC, Oz universities cut off Confucius, Argentina’s poverty plunges
25+: The Democrats may not have the White House or a majority in Congress, but one thing they do have, still, is words. Lots and lots of words. Words for days, even, as Democratic Sen. Cory Booker showed by taking to the podium on Monday with a broadside against Donald Trump that lasted more than 25 hours. The veteran lawmaker from New Jersey, a former football player, had vowed to stay up there as long as he was “physically able.” Before yielding the floor on Tuesday night, Booker broke the record for the longest Senate floor speech, surpassing one set in 1957 by the late Sen. Strom Thurmond, who filibustered against civil rights.
42: The first stage of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, brokered in January, officially lasted 42 days. The deal now looks to be far in the rearview mirror, as Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on Wednesday that he would expand his army’s latest military offensive in Gaza. The two sides are still negotiating another ceasefire deal via mediators but haven’t yet reached an agreement.
5: Benjamin Netanyahu leaves Wednesday on a five-day visit to Hungary. It’s the Israeli PM’s second trip abroad since the International Criminal Court last year issued an arrest warrant for him over alleged war crimes in Gaza. In February, he visited the US. Hungary is an ICC member, but the country’s proudly “illiberal” PM Viktor Orban says he won’t honor the court’s warrant. In recent years, the right-winger Netanyahu has cultivated controversial ties with populist nationalist parties in Europe, including some with histories of overt antisemitism.
6: In recent years, half a dozen Australian universities have closed the Chinese-funded Confucius Institutes on their campuses. The CIs educate students about Chinese language, history, and culture. The moves come amid broader tensions between Australia and China, and they reflect fears that Beijing has used the institutes to spread pro-Chinese propaganda and cultivate possible intelligence assets.
38: Argentina’s poverty rate plunged from 53% to 38% last year. Analysts credit “anarcho-capitalist” president Javier Milei, who drastically slashed government spending to put the mismanaged economy on a more stable footing. After an initial bout of pain, those measures brought inflation down from nearly 300% to 70%, easing poverty as people’s spending power increased.
Israel Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Itamar Ben Gvir shake hands as the Israeli government approve Netanyahu's proposal to reappoint Itamar Ben-Gvir as minister of National Security, in the Knesset, Israeli parliament in Jerusaelm, March 19, 2025
Israel gets “budget of war” amid new plans for Gaza and West Bank
It also included a series of tax hikes that were heavily criticized by opposition parties. Outside the Knesset, demonstrators protested the government’s failure to secure the release of the remaining 59 Israeli hostages as well as recent moves by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to dismiss the head of Israel’s intelligence agency and its attorney general.
For all the protests, the budget’s passage represents “a significant political win for Netanyahu,” according to Eurasia Group managing director Firas Maksad.
“With greater room to maneuver politically from here on, the big question is if the prime minister will be more flexible on moving towards phase two of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, thereby beginning to bring the conflict with Hamas to close,” Maksad added.
A fund for war? Israel is reportedly preparing a major ground offensive in Gaza after the end of the recent two-month ceasefire, including seizing additional territories and potentially occupying the enclave. “If there are not renewed hostage negotiations, then the only alternative left is to resume the fighting,” warned Eyal Hulata, former head of Israel’s National Security Council. “And there are serious plans.”
Other plans include creating new settlements on the West Bank. Last week, Israel’s security cabinet greenlit a decision to split off 13 “neighborhoods” of existing West Bank settlements, established decades ago without authorization, from their “mother settlement,” creating independent settlements. The Palestinian Authority condemned the move as well as increased Israeli military operations in the northern West Bank as “an unprecedented escalation in the confiscation of Palestinian lands.”
Tensions in the West Bank have been escalating for months. On Monday, the Oscar-winning Palestinian director of “No Other Land,” Hamdan Ballal, was detained by Israeli forces on accusations of “rock throwing,” which he denied, after being attacked by settlers in the village of Susya. Ballal was released Tuesday and said he was beaten and blindfolded for 24 hours while in custody, and the Israeli military has not responded to the allegation.
Syria's interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa talks to attendees during a national dialogue in Damascus, Syria, February 25, 2025.
Israel turns the screws on Syria's new leader
Israel this week conducted a fresh wave of airstrikes on southern Syria, just a day after Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa condemned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s call for an Israel-controlled “security zone” in the south of the country.
The context: Ever since jihadist militias led by al-Sharaa overthrew the Assad regime in December, Israel has moved aggressively to neutralize any new security threats from its old foe. Right after Assad fell, Israel struck dozens of Syrian military targets and sent IDF troops several miles into Syria to establish a “buffer zone.”
Netanyahu’s new policy escalates even further. It calls for the Israel-enforced demilitarization of the entire south of Syria. Turkey, which has explored security cooperation with Syria’s new regime, has condemned what it says is Israeli “expansionism.”
Adding to the intrigue, Netanyahu says he’s protecting the Druze, a religious minority in southern Syria. Local Druze leaders have so far responded coolly.
All of this puts al-Sharaa in a tough spot. He is trying to build a viable state in a fragmented country that has suffered decades of dictatorship and a dozen years of civil war. If he doesn’t respond to Israel, he risks looking weak. If he does, he risks a fight he is in no position to win. Advantage Israel?