We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets launched from Lebanon towards Israel over the Israeli Lebanese border, as seen from northern Israel, April 12, 2024.
Iran strikes Israel. How will Netanyahu respond?
On Saturday, Iran launched roughly 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israel’s April 1 bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria. Some 99% of Iranian projectiles were destroyed by a combination of Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, US firepower, and assistance from Britain, Germany, and reportedly Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Israel suffered minimal damage and no casualties.
The question now is what comes next, for the region, the Israel-Hamas war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the world’s great powers?
The region
The slow-motion nature of the attack, which gave Israel and its allies hours to prepare, led some analysts to call itmore symbolic than serious. However, it allowed Iran to gauge Israel’s capabilities, see who would come to the Jewish state’s aid, and learn how other regional powers and groups would respond to an Iranian barrage.
Both Jordan and Saudi Arabia came to Israel’s defense, according to Israeli military intelligence. The two monarchies both have close ties to the US, Jordan shares a border with Israel, and there is no love lost between Iran’s Shi’a fundamentalist government and the Saudi Sunni monarchy and religious authorities.
But according toMasoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, “… if tonight's attacks escalate into a wider Israel-Iran conflict, regional actors perceived as defenders of Israel may find themselves targeted and dragged into the regional conflagration.”
What might Israel do?
US President Joe Biden wants Bibi to “take the win” and not retaliate, but Israel could use the attack as a reason to bomb Iran’s nuclear program or other Iranian military installations.
Netanyahu’s cabinet is divided. Hardliners are calling for a tough response, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir saying Israel should “go crazy.” Netanyahu rival Benny Gantzsaid Israel will “exact a price from Iran in a way and time that suits us.” And Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has the opportunityto form a strategic alliance with nations, including the United States and Germany.
According to Hebrew-language media reports, the security cabinet has authorized the war cabinet – whose only voting members are Gantz, Netanyahu, and Gallant – to ultimately make the decision. A possible clue to that response came Sunday as Gantz declared that Israel must strengthen the “strategic alliance and the regional cooperation” that allowed it to overcome Iran’s attack.
“Israel is currently weighing options. Strikes on Iran directly are possible, but it appears that the war cabinet is divided over how to respond,” says Eurasia Group analyst Greg Brew. “Bombing Iran in response to Saturday's attack would likely escalate the confrontation and compel Iran to attack again – this time with less warning and stage-managing.”
The Israel-Hamas War and Bibi’s future
Iran has warned that attacks by its allies won’t stop until the war in Gaza ends – but that ending is still nowhere in sight. On Sunday,Hamas rejected the latest proposal for a deal presented a week ago by mediators Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
According to Eurasia Group and GZERO Media President Ian Bremmer, the Iranian attack is “going to be a big distraction away from the war in Gaza. [This] doesn't mean that Israel suddenly loses its isolation or wins the PR war globally,” he says, “And there's also less pressure for Netanyahu to be forced out domestically in the near future.”
Great powers unite
The US made it clear that it wants no further escalation. Bidenalso told Netanyahu that the US would not participate in any offensive operations against Iran.
The G7 issueda statement affirming their support for Israel and condemning Iran, saying that an uncontrollable regional escalation “must be avoided.” They demanded that Iran and its proxies cease their attacks and “stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives.”
Iransaid a “new equation” in its adversarial relationship with Israel had been opened, and warned of a “much bigger” assault on the country should Netanyahu retaliate to Saturday’s assault.
WhileBremmer does not see this leading to World War III, he says the “potential that this war expands and eventually does drag in the United States and Iran more directly is also going up. ”Israeli soldiers prepare to enter Gaza, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, at Israel's border with Gaza in southern Israel, April 7, 2024.
Bibi sets date for Rafah invasion
Israel pulled troops from Khan Younis in southern Gaza this weekend, but the move doesn’t signal an end to hostilities. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans Monday for the invasion of Rafah.
“This victory requires entry into Rafah and the elimination of the terrorist battalions there. It will happen — there is a date,” he said, without naming the exact date.
Despite the pullout from Khan Younis, Israeli forces remain elsewhere in Gaza, with the White House indicating that the withdrawal was primarily for rest and reorganization.
It’s all about Rafah. Defense Minister Yoav Gallantsaid troops were withdrawn from Khan Younis to prepare for “their future mission in the Rafah area.”
Israel’s plan to invade Rafah, the southern city where over a million Palestinians are sheltering, has been in the works for weeks and has faced fierce pushback from across the globe — including from Western allies like the US.
After Israeli strikes recently killed seven aid workers in Gaza, Washington appeared to warn Israel that US military aid could be conditioned if the IDF didn’t take more steps to protect civilians. Israel subsequently announced it would open more aid routes into Gaza.
Meanwhile, cease-fire talks have resumed in Cairo, with conflicting reports about their progress. Israeli officials suggest negotiations are at a “critical point,” while Hamas claims they are deadlocked.
President Joe Biden pauses during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023.
Biden puts Bibi on notice
President Joe Biden on Thursday spoke on the phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time since Israeli strikes killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza.
Biden told Netanyahu that the humanitarian situation in Gaza and strikes on aid workers were “unacceptable,” the White House readout of the call said.
But the real news from the call was Biden telling Israel it needs to “announce and implement” concrete steps to “address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers.”
The president also told his Israeli counterpart that US policy regarding Gaza “will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps,” per the readout, while emphasizing the need for an “immediate cease-fire” and a hostage deal.
After the call, Israel said it would open new routes into Gaza to increase the flow of aid by opening the Erez crossing and offering temporary access to Ashdod port, while also allowing more deliveries from Jordan through the Kerem Shalom crossing.
Meanwhile, the UN Human Rights Council on Friday adopted a resolution for Israel to be held responsible for possible war crimes. The US opposed the resolution, but its permanent representative to the Council also said Israel has not done enough to protect civilians.
Reading between the lines. It’s evident that the Biden administration is livid with Netanyahu, as Israel’s handling of the Gaza war faces growing opposition in the US — putting the White House in an uncomfortable position during an election year. But, so far, Biden has been unable to influence Bibi’s approach to the war with words alone.
During Thursday’s call, Biden appeared to offer an implicit warning to Bibi that the US could condition or restrict aid to Israel if it doesn’t change course. Biden is under increasing pressure from Democrats to support such a move.
Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, a pro-Israel lawmaker and Biden ally from the president’s home state of Delaware, on Thursday said he would vote to condition aid to Israel if Netanyahu orders the IDF to invade Rafah “at scale” and without showing care for civilians.
“I’ve never said that before… I’ve been a strong supporter of Israel the whole time I’ve served in Congress,” Coons said, in a sign of how far the mood in the US has shifted since Oct. 7.
FILE PHOTO: Benny Gantz, leader of Blue and White party, speaks during an election campaign rally in Ramat Gan, near Tel Aviv, Israel, February 25, 2020.
Gantz effectively abandons Bibi
Benny Gantz, an Israeli war cabinet member and political rival of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on Wednesday called for early elections in September. This is the first time Gantz, leader of the National Unity Party and a former defense minister, has pushed for this since the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7, 2023, and it’s a major rebuke of Netanyahu.
Gantz, who joined an emergency unity government with Netanyahu after the attacks, says a September election is necessary to “prevent the rift in the nation” and “it will also allow the citizens of Israel to know that we will soon renew the trust between us."
This comes at a significant moment for Israel and Netanyahu, who is facing rising domestic and international criticism over his prosecution of the Gaza war. Israelis in recent days have taken to the streets to express their frustration with Netanyahu — particularly his failure to reach a hostage deal — and push for a new government, clashing with police at times.
Netanyahu’s Likud Party ripped into Gantz’s call for a September election, saying the government wouldn’t change “until all the goals of the war are achieved.” The Israeli leader, whose term is not set to expire until 2026, is notably trailing Gantz in the polls.
Gantz did not indicate that he plans to leave the wartime government. But even if he did, Netanyahu would likely still have the numbers in parliament to keep his government afloat.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations in Jerusalem, February 18, 2024.
Bibi lays the groundwork to blame Biden
Israel is blaming the US for stalled talks with Hamas, in yet another sign of the increasingly tense state of relations between Washington and the Jewish State amid the war in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday said the US refusing to block a UN Security Council resolution for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza was a “very, very bad move” that “encouraged Hamas to take a hard line” in negotiations over a truce and hostage release. The Israeli leader also canceled a delegation to the White House planned for this week in response, though he's since reversed course and agreed to reschedule the meeting.
Israel’s top diplomat, Israel Katz, said the US refusing to veto the resolution sent a message “to anyone on Hamas’s side that the US does not support Israel as much.” A US State Department spokesperson dismissed Katz’s comments as “inaccurate in every respect.” The White House this week said it’s perplexed by Netanyahu’s behavior, particularly given the UNSC cease-fire resolution is effectively symbolic.
The rift between the White House and Netanyahu comes as President Joe Biden faces growing domestic criticism over Washington’s support for Israel with an election on the horizon. Netanyahu’s refusal to abandon plans to invade Rafah, a Gazan city where over a million Palestinians are sheltering, is also at the heart of the escalating dispute.
Meanwhile, Bibi is struggling to keep together a fragile governing coalition. Far-right politicians want Bibi to take an even more aggressive approach in Gaza. Disagreements over conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men are also causing strain.
Along these lines, Netanyahu seems positioned to shift blame on the US for holding up the Rafah offensive and roadblocks in the hostage talks. But he risks alienating Israel’s most important ally in the process.
US President Joe Biden attends a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 18, 2023.
Netanyahu escalates feud with the White House
Benjamin Netanyahu lashed out at the Biden administration on Monday after the US declined to veto a UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire in Gaza during Ramadan. The US abstention allowed the resolution to pass. Netanyahu responded by canceling plans for an Israeli delegation to visit the White House later this week to discuss alternatives to invading Rafah.
The resolution also called for the immediate release of all Hamas-held hostages, but not as a condition for a cease-fire — unlike a US-sponsored resolution that failed last week thanks to Russia and China’s vetoes. UNSC resolutions are technically legally binding, but are frequently ignored without consequence. The US, Israel’s top ally, has vetoed several Gaza cease-fire resolutions since the war began.
Netanyahu said the decision to abstain marked a "clear departure from the consistent US position." The White House on Monday said it’s “very disappointed” that Netanyahu scrapped the delegation, but maintained that US policy has not changed. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who was in Washington on Monday, still met with US officials for separately planned talks.
Trouble in paradise. It’s increasingly evident the White House is fed up with Netanyahu, who appears set on invading Rafah regardless of US opposition. If Netanyahu moves ahead with the offensive, it could push Washington to consider more drastic steps to rein him in — such as putting conditions on US military aid to Israel.
President Joe Biden during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023.
Is the US-Israel relationship on the rocks?
The White House seems increasingly fed up with Israel’s approach to its war against Hamas. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken – who’s set to visit the region again this week in ongoing efforts to secure another cease-fire – warned that all of Gaza faces “severe” food insecurity.
President Joe Bidenreiterated his opposition to a ground invasion in Rafah during a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, reportedly noting that Israel needs a “coherent and sustainable strategy” in Gaza. But on Tuesday, Netanyahu told Israeli lawmakers he would press on into Rafah despite Biden's pleas for restraint.
Will the US punish Israel? If Israel defies the US and invades Rafah, recent reporting suggests Biden could consider conditioning aid to the Jewish State — a step that prominent Democrats are advocating. In another sign of his escalating spat with Bibi, Biden last week applauded Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer after he called for new elections in Israel.
For now, the White House has summoned an Israeli delegation to gather in Washington by early next week for a discussion on an alternative to invading Rafah. But Netanyahu said Tuesday that Israel is “determined” to eliminate Hamas fighters in Rafah, adding, “There's no way to do that except by going in on the ground.”
Thousands demonstrated against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a demand for an immediate hostage deal, ceasefire and general elections in the state of Israel. Clashes with the Israeli police occured after protestors had set up a bonfire in front of the IDF headquarters and then blocked the Ayalon highway. Tel Aviv, Israel. March 16th 2024.
Bibi unfazed by domestic and international pressure
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is refusing to budge, despite protests in Israel’s streets and calls for change within the US Congress. US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer — America’s highest-ranking Jewish politician — recently called on Israel to hold fresh elections, stating that Bibi has “lost his way.” This weekend, thousands of Israelis demonstrated to demand early elections and the release of hostages — with protesters in Tel Aviv being met by water canons.
On Sunday, Bibi said Schumer's call for elections was "totally inappropriate,” claiming that the majority of Israelis support his goal of destroying Hamas. He also vowed not to change course on Rafah, where he has threatened a ground offensive. “We will operate in Rafah,” he said. “It will take a few weeks, but it will happen.”
Israel notably launched a raid on al-Shifa hospital in Gaza overnight Sunday, with reports of heavy gunfire. Israeli military leaders said "senior Hamas terrorists" had been launching attacks from the hospital.
Meanwhile, the suspended cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas were expected to resume on Sunday in Qatar for the first time since the start of Ramadan, with Hamas reportedly proposing a three-stage plan to end the fighting with prisoner and hostage exchanges. Israeli media reported Israel's delegation hoped to bring home around 40 prisoners in exchange for a six-week truce.
Family members of the hostages are pushing Bibi to make a deal to bring their loved ones home, but his plans for Rafah seem to conflict with establishing a cease-fire that could allow for such exchanges, much less a lasting peace.