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Yale Law School's Emily Bazelon on Trump's showdown with the courts
Listen: President Trump has never been shy about his revolutionary ambitions. In his second term, he’s moved aggressively to consolidate power within the executive branch—signing more than 150 executive orders in just over 150 days, sidelining Congress, and pressuring the institutions that were designed to check his authority. His supporters call it common sense. Critics call it dangerous. Either way, it’s a fundamental shift in American governance—one that’s unlike anything happening in any other major democracy.
While Congress has largely collapsed into partisan submission, and the DOJ and other power ministries face political purges, one institution still stands: the courts. In this episode, Ian Bremmer speaks with New York Times Magazine staff writer and Yale Law School’s Emily Bazelon about how the judiciary is holding up under pressure, what rulings to watch, and whether the rule of law can survive the Trump revolution.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published
Where Trump-Musk bromance goes from here, with Semafor’s Ben Smith
It was an extraordinary public fight between two billionaires—President Donald Trump, the world’s most powerful man, and Elon Musk, the world’s richest. On a special bonus episode of the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Semafor co-founder and editor-in-chief Ben Smith to talk about Trump and Musk’s messy breakup, what led to the explosive public fallout, and whether there’s any chance of reconciliation.
Though their feud appears to be cooling down, there’s still a lot at stake for both men: namely, Musk’s political funding for the GOP ahead of the 2026 midterms and billions in government contracts and subsidies for his companies, which Trump has threatened to cancel. In the battle between politicians and tech oligarchs, who holds more power? Will President Trump’s ability to punish his enemies in consequential ways have long-term consequences for Musk? And how does a fight like this change the nature of political journalism when everything is happening in real time in full view of the public? Smith and Bremmer break down the end of the bromance that has defined President Trump’s second term and where the administration’s relationship with Silicon Valley goes from here.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're publishedWhat’s behind Trump & Musk’s public feud?
Elon Musk and President Donald’s Trump’s White House bromance imploded in spectacular fashion last week in a feud that played out in full view of the public, with the two billionaires trading insults in real-time on social media. That fight appears to be cooling down, at least for now, but President Trump has made it clear he has no intention of mending the relationship any time soon. On a special edition of GZERO World, Semafor Co-Founder and Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith joins Ian Bremmer to discuss what led to the breakup and where the Trump administration’s relationship with Silicon Valley goes from here.
There’s a lot at stake: for Trump, Musk’s political funding ahead of the 2026 midterms; for Musk, billions in government contracts and subsidies for his companies. Smith and Bremmer discuss Trump and Musk’s alliance of convenience, where it all broke down, the role of political journalism in covering such a public conflict, and who ultimately has the upper hand in the battle between political leaders and tech oligarchs.
“[President] Trump's power to reward his friends and punish his enemies in the very short term, in very consequential and permanent ways is totally unprecedented,” Smith says, “Business leaders, civil society and the media can be intimidated and Trump knows it. He usually wins that game of chicken.”
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Members of the California National Guard stand in a line, blocking an entrance to the Federal Building, as demonstrators gather nearby, during protests against immigration sweeps, in Los Angeles, California, USA, on June 9, 2025.
Trump deploys Marines to LA as political battle escalates
Overnight, hundreds of US Marines began arriving in the city of Los Angeles, where protests, some of them violent, against the Trump Administration’s immigration enforcement have been ongoing since Saturday.
The move marked an escalation by the White House beyond its initial deployment of National Guard troops on Saturday, and it came just hours after California’s Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom sued the Trump administration over that decision, calling it an “unprecedented usurpation of state authority,” and accusing the White House of provoking the protests.
Why are the Marines there? The troops are officially acting on orders to protect federal property rather than to restore order more widely, though US President Donald Trump has suggested they are there to suppress protesters he has labeled “insurrectionists.”
Legal scholars say this rhetoric suggests Trump may be leaving the door open to invoke the Insurrection Act, which authorizes the direct use of the military against US citizens to suppress rebellion.
“The Insurrection Act is still sitting there on the shelf and gives the president enormous power,” Yale Legal Expert Emily Bazelon told Ian Bremmer on the upcoming episode of GZERO World.
It allows the military to go beyond protecting federal property, to potentially breaking up and policing the protests themselves. In an eerie historical echo, the last time a president did this was in 1992, when President George H. W. Bush deployed Marines to quell racially charged riots in Los Angeles that were touched off by the acquittal of police officers in the beating of Rodney King, a Black motorist.
Trump has already tested the legal bounds in LA. When he deployed the National Guard over the objections of Governor Newsom – the first time a president has defied a governor in this way since the 1960s, he invoked Title 10 of the US Code. That’s a law which permits the White House to “federalize” state-based National Guard units if necessary to “execute the laws of the United States,” – in this case immigration enforcement.
California’s lawsuit says that the White House overstepped its authority and that local law enforcement is capable of managing the protests alone.
In the White House vs California standoff there are risks for both sides. On the one hand, Trump has public approval for stricter immigration policy, with a slight majority of Americans, and a robust majority of Republicans, in favor of his policies, according to polls taken before the weekend upheaval.
And with polls showing that only a third of Americans support the LA protests, Trump, who has long styled himself as a “law and order” leader, may also relish the notion of Democrats associating themselves with images of unpopular chaos and disorder on American streets.
But the deployment of federal troops also poses risks – if they are seen harming US citizens there could be a public backlash against an administration that is seen to be overstepping its bounds.
For now, Trump seems keen to push the envelope. “It is 100% true that they’re enforcing immigration laws and that there are lots of people in the country illegally. However, if you were just playing the numbers game, you would go to a poultry factory in the middle of nowhere in the Midwest and pick up a lot of factory workers,” says Bazelon.
“When you choose to go into the heart of a city, onto the streets and publicly snatch people up, you’re kind of asking for a reaction.”
Protesters are blanketed in smoke along Alondra Boulevard during a standoff with law enforcement following multiple detentions by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), in the Los Angeles County city of Compton, California, U.S., June 7, 2025.
What We're Watching: Trump calls out National Guard, US-China trade talks, Russia-Ukraine violence escalates
Trump deploys National Guard to LA
On Saturday, US President Donald Trump deployed 2,000 National Guard troops to Los Angeles to quell protests against ICE immigration raids. Several hundred demonstrators, some carrying Mexican flags, clashed with police Friday and Saturday in the predominantly Latino neighborhood of Paramount, at times dispersed with batons and tear gas.
How can Trump bring in the National Guard? While VP JD Vance denounced the protestors as "Insurrectionists carrying foreign flags”, the White House did not invoke the Insurrection Act. Instead, Trump used a similar statute to “federalize”, i.e. take control, of state national guard troops, who are expected to arrive in LA by Monday. California Governor Gavin Newsom has condemned the action as “purposefully inflammatory.”
US and China talk trade in London
US‑China trade talks opened in London today, following President Donald Trump’s phone call last Thursday with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US will be represented by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, while China is sending Vice Premier He Lifeng.
The goal? Salvaging a 90‑day tariff truce struck in May, which lowered levies to 30% and 10% on US and Chinese exports, respectively. The sticking points? US export controls on semiconductors and AI chips, China’s rare‑earth export restrictions, and Washington’s recent revocation of Chinese student visas. The asks? Washington wants Beijing to open up rare-earth supply chains, while China seeks relief from tech sanctions.
Russia-Ukraine war escalates – again
Peace seems further away than ever as the three-year-old war between Russia and Ukraine heats up again. On Sunday the Kremlin announced that Russian forces had reached the Ukrainian region of Dnipropetrovsk. The central area is an important mining and industrial hub, and has not yet been a conflict zone; disruption to its supply chains could seriously impact Ukraine’s economy and military as a whole.
Trading blows. The advance follows Russia’s largest aerial bombardment of the war last Friday, killing at least six people and injuring dozens more, in retaliation to Kyiv’s assault earlier in the week on a fleet of strategic Russian warplanes. Over the weekend, Kyiv then attempted to strike Moscow with ten drones. The weapons were intercepted by Russian forces but caused a brief fire at a nearby chemical plant, raising the spectre of further ripostes.
Elon vs. Trump: Billionaire fallout goes public
Ian Bremmer breaks down the clash in his latest Quick Take, calling it “super dysfunctional … but what isn’t around US politics?”
The fallout stems in part from a sweeping tax-and-spending bill Musk opposes, but deeper tensions are personal. Trump abruptly cut ties with Musk, removing key allies like NASA’s administrator, despite Musk's massive political donations and behind-the-scenes influence.
Musk, feeling betrayed, fired back, publicly suggesting Trump should be impeached. Ian warns the feud reflects deeper dysfunction in American politics, where influence is bought, loyalty is volatile, and institutions bend to personal power. Still, don’t rule out a truce.
As Ian notes, “They can clearly patch it up, and they should … because it is in both of their interests.”
President Donald Trump gives a thumbs up as he returns to the White House on Feb. 22, 2025.
Opinion: 100 days of promises kept
World leaders and the global audience are trying to adjust to so much change in such little time, but the dominant thread has been the surprises hidden in plain sight throughout these last three months.
Border security & budget cuts take center stage
At home, the administration immediately got to work on commitments made on the campaign trail and in the latest Republican platform. Atop the list was a mandate to reverse “open-border” immigration policies and secure the US frontier. In its “Protecting the American People against Invasion” presidential action, one of a flurry of Day 1 executive orders, Trump established the groundwork for a multipronged policy, which has included detentions and mass deportations, designating MS-13 a foreign terrorist organization, and court battles over the protected status of Venezuelan migrants as well as birthright citizenship. The approach has had a chilling effect on immigration, with southwest land-border encounters down more than 90% year-on-year, according to the latest March data.
Trump’s other major domestic campaign priorities, deregulation and reigning in federal spending, have spawned a similar pace of action. Elon Musk’s work overseeing the Department of Government Efficiency has come to symbolize how the contours and shape of the US federal government have been redrawn. Last week’s announcement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio that his department will also be overhauled – reducing jobs, shuttering “redundant” offices, and reprioritizing departmental focus – is just the latest example of a campaign throughline to reevaluate federal government spending and structure. The news comes as local governments and populations are still adapting to the shuttering of USAID, a key lever of US soft power abroad.
On domestic policy, there have been few surprises. Trump’s 2024 campaign commitments have become Trump 2.0 administration policy. Despite efforts last fall by the Trump campaign to distance itself from Project 2025, co-author Russell Vought’s selection to lead the Office of Management and Budget was a clear and present signal to all market players of how expansively the plans currently unfolding had been laid.
Remaking America’s role abroad
Turning to the global stage, Trump 2.0’s America First foreign policy has not been the “Make America Great Again” isolationism of Trump 1.0. Instead, from Canada to Mexico, Greenland, and Yemen, no stone is being left unconsidered or unturned. Global expectations set by the first Trump administration that foreign policy would only play second fiddle to a brighter spotlight on the domestic agenda are being updated. Trump has begun to remake America’s role in the world in his image, sowing a geopolitical unsettling but being transparent about the administration’s intentions – as peacemakers and trade disrupters.
As a would-be peacemaker, the president had hoped to bring an efficient closure to the war in Ukraine, an ambition welcomed by those sitting in European capitals. He committed initially to ending the conflict on his first day in office but later extended the timeline to within six months. Last week’s decision by lead attaché Steve Witkoff and Rubio to pull out of peace talks in London is telling. With remaining wide gulfs between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump (even after their 15-minute tête-à-tête at the pope’s funeral this weekend), and likewise, between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the US administration is quickly discovering that intractability is in the details. European leadership has yet to identify an offramp to the conflict that does not include the US administration’s stewardship.
As a quick resolution does not appear imminent, the Trump administration may soon look to quietly back out and close the door on its peace negotiation efforts. Rubio acknowledged as much over the weekend, saying that “we cannot continue … to dedicate time and resources to this effort if it is not going to come to fruition.”
Any reduction in attention on Ukraine and Europe would almost certainly coincide with a ramp-up toward the Middle East, where the administration has historically had more success (e.g. Trump 1.0’s Abraham Accords).
While being a peacemaker remains a work in progress, the president has exceeded expectations as a trade disrupter over the first 100 days. Despite Trump’s constant refrain of tariffs and a four-decade commitment to seeing the US not get “ripped off,” the markets and global leadership still held their breath for a targeted, gradual installation of levies. Instead, April 2, aka “Liberation Day,” introduced the world to one man’s concept of “kind reciprocity,” a benign phrase that has the potential to reshape the global trading system, financial markets, and international relationships.
The accompanying executive order provided for a 10% flat tariff on all trading partners, which went into effect earlier this month. The additional “discounted” reciprocal tariff rates to be imposed on certain trading partners were postponed for 90 days until July 9 for all except the People’s Republic of China. In the intervening weeks, markets have wobbled but are holding onto hope.
The dominant question now is what lies ahead for the next 100 days and beyond. As the “Liberation Day” announcements and maneuvers clarify, there will be more volatility to come. Even with the policy priorities and details beginning to be filled in, this is not the finishing line; it is merely the starting gun. Trump has 90% of the race still to run.
Still, the Trump administration will be pleased with the scorecard of promises kept thus far. It has planted seeds across the domestic and global landscape and will now step back to watch the garden grow. On trade, the ambition is 90 deals in 90 days. And with it, Trump assumes his most preferred role: dealmaker-in-chief.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.
US President Donald Trump returns to the White House from his New Jersey golf club to Washington, DC, on April 27, 2024.
Viewpoint: How strong is Trump’s support 100 days in?
President Donald Trump has claimed a broad mandate to pursue sweeping changes to US institutions and policies since he took office on Jan. 20. He has sought to overhaul the federal government by closing agencies and cutting thousands of jobs, restructure the economy by throwing up a tariff wall to force companies to base more of their operations in the US, reconfigure decades-old foreign alliances, and assert expansive powers in an illegal immigration crackdown.
With a cohesive team in the White House, Republican control of Congress, and a disoriented Democratic opposition, Trump has pushed ahead rapidly on many fronts. But opinion polls in recent weeks have shown a sharp decline in public support for the president, and the courts, financial markets, and other institutions have started curbing his actions. Eurasia Group’s Clayton Allen and Noah Daponte-Smith explain their shared insights on where things are likely to go from here.
What is your assessment of the strength of Trump’s starting position? Was it a “historic mandate,” as he has said? And where does he stand today?
Trump’s popular vote win last November gave him a mandate — not the historic romp that he claimed, but a clear signal from voters that they wanted to buy what he was selling. A hundred days in, a lot of voters are suffering buyer’s remorse. It’s been a rough 100 days, almost all self-imposed: The US economy is headed for much lower growth, if not contraction; negotiations are moving slower than the expectations Trump set for the Ukraine war and Gaza; and national polling shows Trump underwater in overall approval, his handling of the economy, management of foreign policy, inflation, even immigration in some polling.
In the Silver Bulletin polling average, Trump had a 52% approval rating (with +12 net approval) on Jan. 21. His approval has since declined to 44%, with a -9 net approval.
The big question for Trump is if, or when, the negative views on the economy and general exhaustion with volatility begin to weigh on his GOP support. His approval among GOP voters is still robust in the mid-80s, but it is showing signs of weakening on the issues. A Gallup poll over the weekend, for example, found that 36% of Republicans believe that tariffs — one of the administration’s headline policies — will “end up costing the US more money than they bring in.”
What signs of Trump’s support will you be focusing on in the months ahead?
Two things – Trump’s approval ratings on the economy and his approval ratings among Republicans. Economic performance polling is a traditional source of strength for Trump, but the economy is where he has shown his sharpest and most notable decline, largely stemming from the tariff rollout. According to the Economist/YouGov survey, Trump’s net approval on the economy was -5.8% as of last week. That is lower than at any point in his first term when he reached a nadir of a net -2%. If Trump is losing support on one of his traditionally strongest issues, that suggests he will be somewhat politically weakened in the latter half of 2025 and beyond.
Trump’s approval ratings among Republicans will be another key sign to watch. The president’s ability to command an unruly Republican conference in Congress depends in large part on his unquestioned popularity within the party. So far, that has held up: He’s still above in the mid-80s% approval among Republicans. But if that dips below 80%, Trump may no longer appear the invincible figure in the party that he does today.
What do you see as the biggest risks for Trump and his ability to advance his agenda?
Recession, market blowback, and the courts. After a big sell-off in early April, markets have stabilized somewhat following Trump’s decision to pause some of his most expansive tariff measures. But with no imminent trade deals on the horizon to clarify tariff levels, one wonders how long that confidence can hold. Similarly, a recession – beginning in the second half of the year, or potentially backdated to the first – would severely disrupt his tax cuts-and-tariffs agenda.
The courts are the biggest source of procedural risk for Trump, especially on the deportation of illegal immigrants and the spending cuts made by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. We have already seen strong pushback from the courts in both areas. That pushback may extend to tariffs as well, with court cases in the pipeline over the legality of the emergency authorities claimed to enact them. In all these areas, the courts’ skeptical postures toward the Trump administration’s more disruptive actions will be a major source of conflict between the branches of government over the next year.
How do you think Trump will react if some of these risks materialize? Change approach? Lash out against institutional checks on his power?
Lashing out against institutional checks is more likely. A Trump who can no longer marshal the Republican congressional conference at his will probably seek to expand executive power so that he can act without Congress. Key members of the administration have already pointed in that direction. Even with Musk poised to scale back his involvement with DOGE, the administration is claiming broad powers to reshape the federal government under the so-called unitary executive theory. Similarly, pushback from the courts will likely lead Trump to further test the exact bounds of the courts’ power, as in his moves to skirt rulings related to deported immigrant Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s case. And if an economic downturn materializes, Trump will likely blame it on the policies of the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Jerome Powell.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.